So the regular season's over. Blake Griffin's going to be on TV less, but just about everything else about this transition in the 2011 Playoffs is going to make for more entertaining, and simply better basketball. While MJ and Prokhorov duke it out for lottery status, the real fight for the NBA crown looks as volatile as ever; a new favorite seems to emerge every couple weeks as teams slide in and out of Beast Mode (Lakers, Heat, Mavs), get shot in the foot (Spurs), or shoot themselves in ass (Celtics). The opening round should be a revealing couple of weeks (ya, it's gonna be a while), much will be unveiled about how these wayward contenders respond to the playoff pressure. I tried getting a hold of Tracy McGrady to find out exactly who was going to win, but he's been screening my calls, so here goes nothing: Banter's First Round predictions...
Chicago Bulls (1) vs. Indiana Pacers (8)
Playing the role of "Eastern Lottery Team that Stumbled Into the Playoffs Despite Itself", the Pacers will be in over their heads against a Bulls team that outmatches them across the board and defends their key positions extremely well. Nobody on Indiana can even fantasize about containing Derrick Rose, and if he can exploit the Pacers' average-at-best perimeter D with the ease he's been getting accustomed to, this series will be quick and painful. Maybe the dogs get lucky and steal one, but Indiana doesn't have the firepower to overcome Thibodeau's vaunted defense.
Bulls in 4
Miami Heat (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)
Well, this is it; it's time for the Heat to really show us which of the two teams they oscillated between this season will show up for the postseason. Their first opponent is a cagey defensive team that doesn't mind running (sound familiar?) but will be severely handicapped by their lack of an offensive answer for Chris Bosh (without even mentioning LeWyane), but their underrated bench could cause some problems against Miami's Ke$ha-esque shallowness; maybe even enough for a W.
Heat in 5
Boston Celtics (3) vs. New York (6)
The Knicks are back in the playoffs, and as a homecoming gift, drew the top Eastern seed that's been actively self-destructing since Danny Ainge's awkward Deadline faux-pas. Boston's been doing their best Hank Moody impersonation since Mid-February, but they still match up favorably against New York. What remains to be seen is how well they can defend the rim without Perkins lurking in the trenches. The Celts' mid-range defense is still outstanding, but if Melo and Stoudemire can get to the hole, Krstic and half of Shaq will have their hands full. The Knicks could steal a couple, especially at the Garden against a team that's still finding itself, but Boston's too well-rounded for a first-round collapse.
Celtics in 6
Orlando Magic (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)
We saw how this played out last year. Granted, the Magic are a totally different team, but Atlanta hasn't done anything all season to suggest they're any better all season. Joe Johnson's been underwhelming. Josh Smith might've hit his ceiling. Al Horford's been quietly spectacular, but will have to play the best ball of his life and take out one of Dwight Howard's legs to get the better of him. If there were an award for Listlessly Talented Team That Has No Chance of Overperforming in the Playoffs, they'd win it. Which is why they're going to lose.
Magic in 5
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8)
Despite being a 1/8, this could be one of the more interesting opening-round series. San Antonio's walking wounded (Ginobili=out for Game1, Duncan+Parker<100%) and Memphis boasts a not-all-that-shallow-anymore bench and can grind in the molasses-pace halfcourt the Spurs play. Ginobili's convalescence is the key; Memphis has found ways to score without Rudy Gay and can steal Game 1 without him, but it's hard to see the Spurs losing; they're too deep, smart and experienced to fall this early.
Spurs in 6
Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs. New Orleans Hornets (7)
After Bynum's false alarm, the Lakeshow appears to be back on schedule to murk the West-less Hornets like one of those blue zap-lamps, and send the NBA media into a "When Will David Stern trade Chris Paul to the Knicks?" speculation frenzy. Despite Carl Landry's best efforts, this team is too thin beneath Chris Paul to fuck with the two-time defending champs. LA, much like Miami, has had trouble deciding whether they want to be brilliant or awful this season; look for this to be a statement series that they're not to be taken lightly.
Lakers in 4
Dallas Mavericks (3) vs. Portland Trailblazers (6)
(Upset Alert!) Because I've gotta go with one, Portland's probably the most underrated team in the Playoffs, and the Mavs are an easy target for a first-round collapse. Dallas has been wildly inconsistent this season, prime to be caught off guard by a team that's suddenly healthy and both deep and talented enough to cause them a lot of problems. Dirk cannot defend Lamarcus Aldridge, who's comfortable enough on the elbow to make Tyson Chandler's help irrelevant. Brandon Roy could probably put up 20 on the Beaubois/Barea/Terry/Kidd backcourt in a wheelchair. Camby/Wallace is probably a better defensive-specialist/wild card combo than Chandler/Marion. Maybe the Mavs bring their game faces, but a team with a long history of playoff meltdowns, who hasn't brought in any established postseason performers, shouldn't be counted on for it. Portland can do this: Make Greg Oden proud.
Blazers in 6
Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Denver Nuggets (5)
A lot of people are talking up the Nuggets and their post-Melo success like they're some sort of Dark Horse contender out West. I think those people are on acid. Denver's young and talented; they have an intriguing roster with depth to spare, but they lack many essential playoff ingredients: Nobody on their team (with the exception of Kenyon Martin, and possibly Nene) has played meaningful playoff basketball. None of their players are consistent go-to scoring options. Speaking of which, they have nobody to stop Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant (if you have HD, you'll probably be able to see Durant's eyes twinkle when he catches Gallinari alone on the perimeter), and the Ibaka/Perkins monster makes OKC a much more formidable defensive foe, one that Denver will have a much tougher time beating at their own high-octane game. The Nuggets played the Melo deal perfectly; they coyly baited a desperate team with valuable assets, like a trampy gold-digger marrying some terminally ill 80-year-old gajillionaire. They came out of it looking as good as possible heading forward, but this isn't a team built to win in the playoffs, especially not against OKC: your REAL Western Conference Dark Horse.
Thunder in 5
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