Now that the regular season marathon's drawing to a close, we can begin seriously licking our chops, knowing that the season's best basketball will soon be upon us. Every game will count as teams furiously jockey for playoff seeding (and, in more mundane cases, lottery balls), leading into an epic battle for basketball's most revered honor. March Madness needn't be mentioned (but shouldn't be forgotten) to deem the coming months as any hoops head's favorites...But let's not get ahead of ourselves here, before the title bout, there's still a couple fights left on the undercard as the quest for the postseason winds down. Here's the tale of the tape:
The Dreamers: These teams will be duking it out for the final playoff spots. The season will end in disappointment for most of them, but, with the exception of one, they should be happy just to be here.
Milwaukee Bucks - Just the fact that they're still in this conversation after losing Micheal Redd and having the League's most gloriously inefficient point guard this year is astounding. Kudos to Scott Skiles for having this muddle of youngsters play above the sum of their parts recently; mixing in John Salmons might serve up playoff appearance.
Memphis Grizzlies - Facing a tough recent schedule - as any team in the West is bound to at some point - the Grizz have slipped back towards .500, showing that although they're much better than we would've given them credit for, they might not be playoff-ready in the deep West. Their remaining schedule's relatively soft, but lottery or not, they recovered from the Iverson debacle quickly and are still on the good end of massive upside.
Houston Rockets - Losing Carl Landry hurt but picking up Kevin Martin and a couple good big men really gave this team exactly what they needed at a fair price. A go-to scorer's a much needed shot in thw arm for what's been a languid Rockets offense, and Martin's surrounded by enough potent help for his defensive deficiencies to be minimalzied. As promising as a playoff run would be, this team's really just waiting on next season, praying that a year of rest will finally get Yao Ming on a healthy track.
Miami Heat - Having once held then safest grip on their playoff seed in the L, Miami's tumbled all the way to the brink of the lottery and is no lock to make the postseason. As the losses pile up, so (inevitably) does Dwyane's frustration as he Wades in the shallow talent around him. He's capable of lifting this team to a first-round exit, but I can't help but think apathy must be setting in.
New Orleans Hornets - They've played surprsingly well without Chris Paul thanks to the recent explosion of rookies Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. It remains to be seen if this talented but inexperienced backcourt can continue this blistering pace all season, but if they can keep the Hornets in the fight long enough for CP3 to get healthy, it might be all they need.
Charlotte Bobcats - Some recent struggles against just about everyone (...except the Cavs...) have cast Charlotte back onto the East lottery scene. I still see them as the most likely of the bottom 3 (Miami and Milwaukee being the others) to squeeze into the playoffs, their recent trade having bolstered a Kate Moss-thin frontcourt. This current lineup's not far from its ceiling, but after years of sucking, mere respectability is welcome in Charlotte.
The Long-Shots: Their postseason ambitions fairly realistic, these squads are battling for a better draw in the faint hope of a first-round upset
Portland Trailblazers - Picking up Marcus Camby was huge for a team that wasn't dressing a 7-footer and starting 52 year-old Juwan Howard at center. Somehow, they weathered several violent attacks from the injury bug and stayed in the playoff chase this long. It's hard to imagine them losing their grip unless Brandon Roy decides to shut down his ailing hamstring, even harder to picture them upsetting the Lakers. That being said, if any team can be satisfied with just a playoff berth, given everything they've been through, it's these guys.
Chicago Bulls - Since their near-implosion in December, the Bulls have been playing some pretty f***ing good basketball, recently having beaten five .500+ teams in a row...on the road...in the West. Their remaining schedule won't be easy, but it's heavy on the United Center - where they're won two thirds of their games this year - and regardless of this season's outcome, they've given their fans reason to be optimistic about next year with more cap space to bait the many marquee free agents this summer.
San Antonio Spurs - Sorry, have to do it. Finally. I know it seems weird seeing San Antonio this far removed from the contender conversation this far into the season, but they've played tired, inconsistent basketball and shown nobody any reason to expect something beyond a first round dismissal. MAYBE they can pull out an upset if their entire roster's at 100%, but that'll be asking a lot. Tim Duncan's been uncannily efficient this year, but even in the postseason, where he'll playing far more than 31 minutes/game, he'll need much more help than he's had this year. The Alamo's been taken. Good riddance.
Oklahoma City Thunder - Not to slight the impressively precocious play of a team nobody asked to be ten games over .500, but the playoff-virgin core of the Zombie Sonics will have a hard time beating a team like Utah or Dallas in seven games. Durant's been unreal, Westbrook's been steadier, Harden's been steadily improving...Hard as it may be just remember they're the youngest team in the League; this is just the beginning.
Toronto Raptors - Playing to their potential for once, the Raps have responded to the preseason hype, ironically thanks in no part to a certain Turk who's been playing like he's living out his Pizza Pizza commercial on the reg. The return of Reggie Evans will be welcomed by a team that's finally embracing the foreign concepts of hustling and defensive toughness, while their two-headed point guard attack has proven potent in recent weeks. If eveything's firing for them, they're the kind of team that could scare a wounded Celtics squad that perenially lets its guard down in early rounds.
Phoenix Suns - Yeah, I dunno why they kept Amar'e either. They're several players they can't afford away from contending and will likely lose him after they're swiftly dismissed from the first round...oh well...here's hoping whatever team lands him will pull of a miracle trade for Chris Paul.
The Dark Horses: These are the underdogs; the teams that will be expected to make noise come playoff time, but will have to knock off a favorite to get a title shot.
Boston Celtics - You don't think so the way they've been playing lately? They're one of A's best teams when healthy, but they haven't been all year. If Garnett and Pierce are still hampered in April, they're screwed; even with a healthy Pierce last year, it took the best basketball of Rajon Rondo's life to get them out of the first round. I'm fully prepared for a complete Big 4 to prove me wrong, but I won't count on Glen Davis, Tony Allen and Fatigued Wallace to do it.
Atlanta Hawks - They've dominated the Celtics this year, but lackluster performances against the Cavs and Magic leave serious doubts about their ability to match up with the East's beasts. Atl definitely took a step forward this year, but it'll take another one to reach the NBA's upper echelon.
Utah Jazz - They've been the West's best team since Christmas, but this team just seems...off. Too much uncertainty enshrouds them: D-Will's questioning front office intentions, Boozer claims he wants to stay but can't be taken at his word, Millsap's being jerked like Jack Link's beef waiting for the minutes he deserves, and Andrei Kirlenko/Mehmet Okur's consistency problems will hurt them when they're playing top-tier teams every game. If they can shake it all off and give the better Lakers some heat, I'll be thoroughly impressed.
The Contenders: For these squads, anything short of a title will be a disappointment. It's not about waiting on free agents, nurturing young talent and 'building a winner'; they've built winners, now it's time to do what they do.
Orlando Magic - The Magic showed very scary glimpses of their May 2009 selves this past weekend against the Cavs. Dwight owned the paint with a nice array of moves early, and when the Cavs keyed their D on him, a floodgate of 3's rained on them from all angles, while a lane-clogging defense reduced Lebron to a streaky jumpshooter, removed from his rhythm. They're another team who's been unhealthy, with injuries plaguing their starting backcourt, but have shown a much better ability to play hurt than the older, thinner Celtics. They're as dangerous as any contender out there.
Denver Nuggets - Why not? Even with Melo and Chauncey hobbled, they've held down the second-best record in the better conference, while Kenyon Martin's enjoyed a renaissance and Ty Lawson's emerged as one of the better steals in a deep draft class. They're an improved defensive team and boast a scary offensive arsenal that few teams are equipped to outgun. At full stregnth, they're at-worst a top-three team in the West.
Cleveland Cavliers - After peeling off the season's longest winning streak with their second-best player in streets, Cleveland acquired a borderline All-Star for at worst, their backup center and at best, absolutely nothing. Jamison's incorporation into the lineup wasn't as "seamless" as Danny Ferry had predicted, but doesn't change the fact that the Cavs, who were already arguably the favorites in the East, improved a lot. They match up better against the Magic than last year, and should have no trouble with any of the East's lesser teams. Of course, the stakes are also higher in Cleveland than anywhere else, so deliverance upon their postseason expectations is vital.
Dallas Mavericks - They might end up coming out the winners of the trade deadline deals; they got EXACTLY what they needed in Haywood and Butler; tough defense, low-block competency, and a more versatile offensive attack. They looked to be firing on all cylinders in the 2nd half against LA, toppling the champs without Caron in a serious statement game. What was already a playoff dark horse now could be a bonafide threat to the throne.
...Which leaves us with the reigning champs, who still have to be called The Favorites; even with Kobe taking his longest injury leave in years, the Lakers maintained their steady cushion on the West's top spot. Aside from the Cavs, they've repeatedly beaten tough opponents and rarely shown the type of champion's complacency that could plague a team this talented. Although there's been recent dissent about Mr. Bryant's itchy trigger finger, but it'll tkae much more than that to disturb the Zen Garden long enough to knock the Lakers off their title course. Believe they'll be playing their best ball in May and, most likely, June; it'll be tough for anyone else to match.
Ugh. It's been a slow start to the week. If you're like me, you're still reeling from the weekend; a couple birthday celebrations led to a drink or twelve, and very little sleep. As if that weren't overwhelming enough, we were all the while enduring the onslaught of March Madness' first round and its non-stop clusterfuck of action. There were an overwhelming number of upsets over the NCAA tournament's first weekend (at least you're not the only one with a busted bracket), leaving an interesting mix of perennial favorites and complete nobodies in the Sweet 16. It was a great run; close to forty hours of top-tier televised basketball in one weekend's a thrill unmatched anywhere else, but I'm feeling a little overserved, like I just left Ponderosa on a serious munchies run. Or maybe like Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson in that scene from Wedding Crashers where they're collecting dust on the Washington Monument steps; bathing in the glory of their own excess. It was awesome, but I'm seriously burnt out and could use a change of gears for a second; a time out, a little water...leading us to, well, you know.
