How the West Was Saved, starring Serge Ibaka

I was kind of shook last week when the NBA suddenly scheduled a Three Days Grace in the middle of the Conference Finals.

The abnormally-long break was an annoying cliffhanger, but apparently was just long enough for Serge Ibaka to summon some Deer Antler Spray superhuman will, revert a season-ending injury, and save his team's Playoff lives.

Ibaka was the difference last night, playing a superb game on both ends of the floor while noticeably hobbling at times. He came out blazing like Tony in Scarface's final scene, nailing jumpers from several midrange spots, and forcing the Spurs out of the containment scheme that had worked so well for them over the first two games. Serge's displaced defenders created lanes that OKC's scorers exploited all night, allowing them to get easy buckets in a game where Kevin Durant was decidedly pedestrian by his standards -25 on 8-19 -and Russell Westbrook was a walking (running) lost possession in the first half.

On the other end, his presence was also invaluable; not only did he block four shots, but he did an absurd amount of disruption for someone whose season was ostensibly over last week. He dissuaded San Antonio's deadly pick 'n roll, making life miserable for Tony Parker, and most others who came near OKC's basket. It was evident in the number of jumpers the Spurs were forced into, after feasting on the Thunder's interior defense for the first two games (only in the first half, Manu Ginobili doused the 3-point line in gasoline and lit a match).

The Thunder seemed undoubtedly more mobile and confident as a defensive unit working around Ibaka. That added effectiveness - San Antonio shot 39% in Game 3 coming off 57 and 50% - was a team effort, but unquestionably sparked by Ibaka's deterrence against penetration, and OKC's facilitated movement around him. The Spurs had to call audibles they otherwise wouldn't have, and suddenly, somehow, Popovich had no answer for Scott Brooks' Random Lineup Machine.

That the Thunder have several lineups that give San Antonio problems has seemed lost on Brooks, who stubbornly insists on playing Kendrick Perkins about twice as much as he should. The bogus fouls that Perk was quickly racking up last night were basically the refs doing Brooks' job for him in a hilariously ironic way. And Brooks kept clicking buttons on the machine: Reggie Jackson started for some reason, we saw Jeremy Lamb for the first time in eons, Nick Collison and Thabo Sefolosha took confusing DNP-CDs. Some of this worked, but the Thunder's long, athletic talent causes fundamental problems for the Spurs in lots of spots, so he's bound to hit somewhere. It's like the 'broken clock is right twice a day' saying, only far more frequent.

(Brooks also gets demerit points for how long he left Ibaka in, during the late stages of a decided game. I know, I know, it's the Spurs, and it's the Playoffs, and anything can happen, and he's had a big night, and the fans are all fired up... But, yeah, anything can happen. This guy's attempting a miracle comeback on one leg; get him the fuck out of the game, preserve his energy, and ensure something like this doesn't happen).

San Antonio will no doubt bring a re-tooled arsenal to Chesapeake Energy Arena for Game 4; they're too smart, experienced, and versatile to let one deflating loss stick with them beyond last night. But even with their thorough depth, this is the one team San Antonio can't seem to figure out; the Thunder took four straight from them the last time they clashed in the Playoffs, and the momentum they're riding right now couldn't be stronger.

As a result, seemingly out of nowhere, we have a Western Conference Finals again; a fitting twist in a plot that deserved a better ending. The West was brutally competitive this year; a point that was made so many times, but could never be over-stated. The narrative was destined for a titanic showdown between two worthy foes to decide a Champ, and for two games it seemed like an illest-timed injury would be robbing us of that spectacle.

But then the Serge Protector delivered. Not only was his return a sudden rush of voltage to a team desperately in need of revival, but he knocked the Spurs out of their comfort zone, giving the Thunder at least a hope of escaping the grave his absence dug.

Grading Day

Last October, I rolled out nine predictions for 2013-14, ranking them based on an arbitrary mix of boldness and importance to the overall scheme of the NBA. My plan was to review them sometime late in the season, and see how each turned out. The campaign's winding down to single-digit-games for half the Association, and since most of these predictions had nothing to do with the Playoffs, I'm turning back time, looking through hindsight's lens, and assigning grades to each one. Where's the DeLorean...

"9. The '73 Sixers are safe"

There was plenty of buzz in the preseason about just how bad some of this season's write-offs could be, and whether any of them would challenge the single-season mark for futility. The prevailing logic seemed to be "so many of these teams look awful, odds are one might be that bad" and not "so many of these teams look awful, and they're all going to play each other enough".

I figured it wasn't much of a stretch that a widening gap between the top and bottom of the League - combined with so much tanking - would make for many more winnable games between two weak opponents. Enough that the worst single-season record would be more than safe.

It played out somewhat predictably; even with this season's incarnation of the Sixers recently putting on a memorable nose-dive to challenge Milwaukee for the Undisputed World Tanking Champion status, there were simply too many other bad teams for any of this season's hackjob rosters to register historically, or even realistically challenge. This was a pretty safe call, so I won't pat myself on the back too much for it.

Grade: B+

"8. D-Rose won't miss a step"

This one went horribly awry, no two ways about it. In October, all indications pointed to Rose reminding everyone just how good he was. He had just spent a full year-plus recovering from his knee injury, and was talking the same confident game he did prior to his MVP season. "I'm faster". "I can jump higher". "My mom can get it". He seemed like he was taking no prisoners, and had forced us to take his talk seriously.

Unfortunately for Bulls fans, Heat haters, and this prediction, Chi-Town's favorite son was barely starting to knock the rust off after ten games, before going down again and seemingly taking his team's season with him. In a twist that should be surprising us less and less, Tom Thibodeau (the Gregg Popovich to Adam Silver's David Stern) milked 150% out of his roster, and the Bulls wound up doing better without Rose, even after salary-dumping Luol Deng.

This result was somewhat of a fluke overall, especially with Rose injuring his other knee, but even the tiny glimpse we caught of him was far from the player we all remembered. I'll be less presumptuous about his next comeback; he might be too.

Grade: D-


"7. Joe Dumars will seal his coffin"

I've spent a few years feeling very bad for Pistons fans. Basically ever since Joe Dumars traded Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson and forced us all to wonder if the Darko pick wasn't a one-off aberration.

In the years since, Joey D's been one of the worst GMs in the NBA, botching trades and signings left-right-and-center, while his pedigree as a legendary player and architect of the '04 title team have bought him rope within the franchise and clouded judgement of the Motor City faithful.

I saw his latest rebuild attempt as a textbook mismatch of talent that wouldn't live up to expectations, and bashed the Josh Smith (and to a lesser extent Brandon Jennings) signings, but even my negative outlook for the Pistons couldn't compare to the turd of a season they put together.

Missing the Playoffs in maybe the weakest Conference ever, notching the season's only coach firing to date (hold that thought) and submitting a very strong bid for this year's Unintentional Hilarity Award. With the internet's proliferation allowing fans to be heard more, they've slowly joined a growing number of analysts in scrutinizing Dumars, but he runs deep with the Pistons, he'll be tough to uproot.

Grade: B+

"6. There will be a record-low number of coach firings"

This one could've gone either way.

Mo Cheeks was the only bench boss to be axed when the situation in Detroit became comically bad, but several others could've easily bowed out. Mike Woodson somehow survived New York's biggest disaster outside a generic blockbuster movie. Larry Drew didn't take the fall when Milwaukee accidentally tanked. The Cavs haven't realized how much Mike Brown's part of their problem, Jason Kidd turned the Nets around to dodge Prokhorov's hit squad, and it's only a matter of time with Ty Corbin.

Any number of things going slightly the other way could've blown this one for me, but getting through a whole season with just one coach losing his job is a total outlier in today's NBA, and when a team can blatantly lose 26 games in a row without a murmur of firings, it's not total coincidence.

Grade: A

"5. The Cavs will begin The Redemption"

Oops.

Looking back on it, I should've seen the signs. Mike Brown. Andrew Bynum. The Cavs with any kind of debatable lottery selection.

My optimism here was based around Kyrie Irving hitting another level (didn't happen), Dion Waiters adjusting as an off-the-ball scorer (unlikely, especially in a Mike Brown offense), and getting anything out of Bynum (statistically less likely this year than him messing around with a coach's wife).

They turned the Bynum Tax Credit into an All-Star (Luol Deng) and will probably have to watch him walk away in the summer, left with another void to fill on a sketchy roster, with a horribly overrated coach, and possibly-insane owner whose regime is beginning to look very shaky.

And I haven't even gotten to Anthony Bennett yet...

Grade: D-

"4. OKC will make a big move; It will be questionable"

Quite a few things went against me here, negating the need for OKC to even consider making moves:

- First, the Thunder were much better at team defense than I figured them to be with so many new, young bodies,

increased doses of Derek Fisher, and Kendrick Perkins getting more and more obsolete. I thought they'd slide noticeably and it just hasn't been the case.

- Jeremy Lamb and Steven Adams were two complete question marks coming into this season; both have become solid role players who've fit well within what the Thunder need: a rangy defender who can space the floor, and a center who isn't Kendrick Perkins. Hardly enough to make up the margin between five years of James Harden and eight months of Kevin Martin, but hey, who's counting?

- Reggie Jackson made the leap from "guy who put up an inspiring late-season run" to "landslide 6MOY winner if Westbrook stayed healthy"; instant energy and offense, solving the "who will take pressure off Durant?" query with no hesitation.

- And then Durant spent most of the season in Doom Mode, taking his transcendent game to yet another level.

As a result, the Thunder have looked like a top-two team in the West, even through Russ' injuries. As it played, the season couldn't have gone much smoother for them, which crushes this prediction's "trade", even there's still a decent chance Presti could've botched it.

Grade: D-

"3. The Knicks will completely implode"

We've all heard enough about this.

Grade: A+

"2. The Clippers will have the West's best record (and worst Alternate Jersey)"

The jerseys were a close call; so many total eye-sores. The sleeves movement was an awkward shift that the NBA's thankfully moving to ditch, which is great news for everyone, especially the Clippers and their powder-blue pyjamas.

The "best record" part, was a little further off. San Antonio has the West's top seed locked up, but L.A. is still tight with OKC for the 2-spot, having battled numerous injuries all season, especially their biggest new addition (JJ Redick). The immense upgrade from Vinny D to Doc Rivers has done wonders for this team, especially their defensive cohesion and both Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan taking their games to the next level. At full strength, many are giving them credit as strong West contenders.

Injuries are part of the game, so it's hard to use them as a crutch when this whole process is pretty results-oriented, and the Spurs and Thunder weren't exactly models of health this year. The Clippers could've taken the top seed at full strength, but close, no cigar.

Grade: B-

"1. The Heat will Three-Peat"

My #1 prediction was pretty cliché, but I felt it had the right mix of importance and uncertainty to be a pretty standard slot-in. It's also (obviously) incomplete, but based on what we know right now, doesn't look totally awful.

Miami's hit a relative lull at a bad time, but still has three weeks until the Playoffs to flip what we all know is the most automatic "switch" of any team in the NBA. Fortunately for them, the Pacers are in the midst of a meltdown, have surrendered the #1 seed, and are raising their first serious doubts all season, in a drastic way, at a really bad time. Concurrently, the rest of the East - despite revivals from Chicago and Brooklyn, and the deserved optimism in Toronto - just can't challenge the Heat, rested, with D-Wade, in a Playoff series. There's no way.

The picture is far murkier out West, where any number of teams can cause serious problems, and the battle will be infinitely more competitive: More games will be hard-fought and go into overtime. More series will be stretched the distance. More players will have to exert themselves to the Nth degree, risking injury and exhaustion just to survive 'til the next round.

The West is the far better Conference, but that's to its severe detriment in this year's title race. Miami faces a soft schedule, will play fewer games, and spend plenty of time resting (especially Wade) while waiting for the West schedule to catch up as its teams beat on each other. The Playoff landscape couldn't look much better for them right now.

That said, whatever team comes out of the West, besides being well-tested, is obviously going to be very, very good. Miami played poorly almost too often last spring, catching several lucky breaks to prevail in what was likely the tightest NBA Finals ever. If they're not playing a notch above consistently this year, I don't like their chances too much.

Grade: an incomplete B

Overall, I averaged out to a B-, not incredible, but not Eastern Conference-caliber either. My 3-Peat prediction could do me some favors, but I'm not entirely confident in this Miami team down the stretch of an intense Finals (under the assumption they get there). There's a lot riding on a supporting cast that just hasn't looked as sharp this year, and the load LeBron's had to carry (especially with Wade sitting so often) worries me.

Only time will tell, but before it does, we have some trophies to hand out, so check for the 2014 Banter Awards next week...