Showing posts with label Houston Rockets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Houston Rockets. Show all posts

Monday, October 12, 2020

NBA Bubble Power Rankings Part I: The Losers

Well. That was a journey. 


The NBA pulled off a miraculous feat of planning, regulation and social construction, stuffing most of the league into a self-contained bubble, in Florida of all places. 

While the United States went to complete and utter shit all around them, the bubble stayed strong, finishing the season and giving us closure to the weirdest NBA campaign ever.

Trying to recap the past few months in a brief, clean little piece is pretty damn difficult. We've seen so much - both in the NBA bubble and the calamity of the outside world - that a concise summary hardly does it justice. Compound that with the general disorienting haziness that 2020 has shrouded us all in, and it becomes near-impossible.

Instead, I'm delving into a complete breakdown of the bubble's key entities with the NBA Bubble Power Rankings. The higher the number, the worse the ranking. 

We'll be doing this in three parts: The Losers, The Middle Class, and the Best of the Bubble. As with many things in life, you've gotta get the bad out of the way before enjoying the good:

Last Place: Racist cops

We need to start here. 

The issue of justice and social equality for people of color was constant throughout the NBA's rebirthed season. 

From jersey messages, to billboards and broadcast graphics, ads, interviews, shoes, masks, and literally anywhere physically possible to get the message across.

After Kenosha, Wis. police shot Jacob Blake seven times in the back in front of his children, the players collectively decided they'd had enough of this shit. Beginning with Kenosha neighbors the Milwaukee Bucks, they staged a strike that would permeate to other leagues, effectively putting Western Hemisphere sports on hold for a weekend. 

The result was a pledged commitment to the movement - not just spreading the message, but ensuring action - from the NBA. Most notably, the league will convert team-owned arenas to voting sites for the upcoming election, increasing both capacity and accessibility in major cities.

What the players accomplished was historic. In a country disproportionately run by rich white people, they made rich white people care about their plight and align in fighting it.

And the league continued to place itself at the forefront of this year's ongoing battle against racial injustice. The NBA was by far the "wokest" of the pro sports cohorts, correctly identifying with the young men (the majority of whom are POC) who make their league what it is. 

Unfortunately, there's both anecdotal and empirical evidence suggesting their plea for humanity has - among several other factors - helped contribute to plummeting TV ratings. It's tragic that many still tune out what's often perceived as a "political agenda" (it's not). But it's beyond admirable that the NBA is still willing to fight the good fight. 

Basketball is growing enough internationally to weather whatever storm the NBA faces from racist "fans" in North America. And the impact of what they helped ignite this summer could be, quite literally, revolutionary.

Second-Last Place: The scum that sent death threats to Danny Green

993. Sports leagues that didn't bubble

982. Mike Budenholzer/Milwaukee Bucks

The extent to which Budenholzer coached the Bucks out of their series with the Heat cannot be overstated. 

He foolishly capped his best players' minutes and refused to make any sort of adjustments to his rotation or defensive scheme. Worse yet, he completely neutered Giannis Antetokounmpo, keeping him off Jimmy Butler Duty, and glued to the bench for the most important stretch of Milwaukee's season (the start of Miami's Game 3 comeback).

As a result, the Bucks are facing DEFCON 1 with an aging core, one year left on Giannis' contract, and back-to-back playoff collapses to match his back-to-back MVPs. Fear for the Deer is more like it. 

957. Paul George

The postseason couldn't have gone much worse for "Playoff P", who averaged his fewest playoff ppg since 2013 and shot a horrid .398 from the field. 

As a result, George was the main Haterade recipient after the Clippers' premature meltdown, and had the internet conjuring up every possible slanderous derivative of his nickname. 

In perhaps a personal low point, Seth Curry - who has a not-so-congenial connection to PG - called him a "bitch ass" on international television. 

936. Newsday's Greg Logan

For thinking that Andre Drummond was the NBA's best defender this year. 

919. Danuel House Jr.

Got kicked out of the bubble after his booty call was busted, which was dumb, clumsy, and selfish all in one swoop.

913. Steph Curry's cornrows

906. Game 7 Steve Ballmer

903. Pascal Siakam

Spicy P was pretty damn mild as he mostly disappeared from Toronto's second-round exit. Fans and pundits alike questioned his status as a franchise player, and he drew many unflattering comparisons to ghosts of Raptors playoffs past. 

898. Marcus Morris

Between his cheap-shot on Luka Doncic's ankle, and seemingly igniting the Nuggets' comeback with his Paul Millsap beef, Morris was more of a pro wrestling heel than a basketball player the past few months.

877. The Reggie Miller-Chris Webber tandem

Miller and Webber have long been two of the NBA's most-derided TV emcees. Webber's a try-hard who comes off corny as hell. Miller's mere aura, much like as a player, is an irritant. Both of their commentaries are shallow, misguided, and often contradictory. 

Due to the bubble's restricted media crews, they spent more time than usual in the same booth and, god, was it ever bad.

849. Los Angeles Clippers

Much like the Bucks, suffered a humiliating second-round defeat. Much unlike the Bucks:

  • lost after being up 3-1
  • weren't beaten by the eventual Conference Champ
  • coasted through the regular season with nonchalance and arrogance befitting a much more accomplished team
The Clippers are a bit higher than the Bucks here because they aren't in quite as desperate a situation, and have already fired their overrated coach (formerly another similarity). But they basically mortgaged their future for this core, and did not do so for second-round losses. 

826. Philadelphia 76ers

Whatever The Process became, it's pretty fucking tough to trust it at this point. The Sixers remain the NBA's most dysfunctional talented team, facing an identity crisis at seemingly every turn. 

They were unceremoniously swept out of the first round. Then Joel Embiid began passive-aggressively subtweeting the organization throughout the Heat's playoff run.

The Sixers now have to look at a serious shakeup in an offseason with no salary cap growth and a highly unpredictable market, while they try and convince some poor soul to pay a 36-year-old Al Horford $26.5 million in 2023 (good luck).

808. Charles Barkley's "GUAR-AN-TEE!"s

802. Replay review length/intervals

798. Coach's challenge selection

780. Danny Green

I'm not entirely sure what Danny Green's done to piss off Lakers fans, but holy shit do they ever hate him.

His inconsistency hardly stood out among L.A.'s supporting cast this year. But there was a fresh round of stones thrown at Green with every missed three, culminating in his now-immortal Game 5 brick. 

729. Houston Rockets 

Apparently forgetting that Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis play for Western Conference contenders, Houston went all-in on small ball, producing another painfully predictable second-round loss. 

Their eradication of every center on their roster came off almost as a trade-deadline gimmick; a fit of desperation from the depths of Daryl Morey's analytics chamber.

In the end, Houston played themselves yet again, having now lost the ideal coach for such a system. They're back at the drawing board without a plan.

700. Nate McMillan/Indiana Pacers

Pacers got swept. Nate got fired. Vic Oladipo wants out. Not great. 

682. Scott Foster

Deployed much like Lieutenant Marimow in "The Wire", Foster, the NBA's resident killjoy referee, became a B-plot villain, drawing ever-increased ire from fans and being name-dropped by Chris Paul in an emotional post-elimination interview. 

667. Russell Westbrook

659. Kendrick Nunn

648. Dillon Brooks' shot selection

643. Zion Williamson

Zion was largely absent from what was supposed to be the Pelicans' triumphant ascent to the postseason. Williamson barely averaged twenty minutes, missing three of the eight seeding games entirely. New Orleans flamed out, not even a factor in the ridiculous four-way final day clusterfuck for the West's 8th and 9th seeds.

It's still too early to call Zion an injury liability, but his first season was as worrying as it was tantalizing. A body that size cannot normally do the things he does; the impact of all that weight and force is considerable.

618. Paul Pierce

While not as irritating as Miller and Webber, Pierce is still a definite minus to most broadcasts. His takes are like hour-old McDonald's french fries; cold, too salty, and tough to digest.

586. San Antonio Spurs

Missed the playoffs for the first time since "Anaconda" was the #1 movie at the box office. They're in clear rebuild mode, and don't exactly have an enviable long-term outlook. 

552. Disney World's room service 

538. The "socially distanced bench" concept

520. Jayson Tatum's stiff-arms

Tatum is a supremely-talented basketball player, capable of torching pretty much any defender. Unfortunately, when driving to hoop, he still feels the need to throw more stiff-arms than a Slipknot mosh pit, clearing out defenders as they move with him.

This greasy tendency cost the Celtics on numerous key possessions, now that the refs have caught on. Tatum's got a deep bag of tricks, and he'll need to find more subtle ways of creating space for himself.

514. Twitter over-reactions to flopping

509. Jeff Van Gundy's rants about flopping

506. Actual flopping

501. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Won the MVP. Had to accept it from Greece.

Stay tuned for Part II later this week...

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Banter's 2019 NBA Awards

Welcome, one and all to Basketball Banter's 2019 NBA Awards!

Obviously, it's been a while since I've posted on here; my last Banter post was 2018's Awards, exactly a year ago today.

I unfortunately have less time for writing these days, and that quota is largely devoted to my Memphis Grizzlies work for Beale Street Bears. But I felt inspired to knock the dust off my Blogger account this week, and toss my 2019 awards picks (however insignificantly) into the internet zeitgeist.

Let's get into it (stats accurate as of 04/10):

All-Rookie Teams
First Team: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander



Second Team: Jaren Jackson Jr, Mitchell Robinson, Collin Sexton, Kevin Knox, Kevin Huerter



ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: LUKA DONCIC
With his soggy build and lack of athleticism, many pundits questioned Doncic's NBA impact, despite him having dominated the World's second-best basketball league as a teenager.

It took just games for him to silence even the staunchest critics. Within weeks he was an internet phenomenon. By December, he was being compared to the best rookies ever. And by 2019, he was a nightly threat to drop a triple-double.

The end result is an absolute romp of a debut: 21.2/7.8/6.0. For context, Doncic averaged more points, assists and rebounds than LeBron James did in his rookie year, despite playing 23% fewer minutes per game. He also topped Rookie LeBron in most major advanced metrics.

Doncic was a one-man offense; converting on high-difficulty shots and passes time and again. His pedigree and instant success denied him any early grace period where a rookie is taken lightly. Guys went at him from the get.

The Rookie 20/5/5 Club is pretty exclusive: Doncic and James join Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and for some reason Tyreke Evans. Unless we're being guided by the outlier, this is indicative of a generational talent.

Much respect to Trae Young, who went completely nuclear over the season's second half, triggering a surprisingly-competent Hawks turnaround (despite being the NBA's literal worst defender). Notwithstanding, Doncic's rookie season was one of the finest on record; pure piff from the first tip.

Regards To: Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley


SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: MONTREZL HARRELL

Ironically, this award mainly comes down to two teammates. Un-ironically, they both hail from the scrappy, star-less overachievers that were this season's Los Angeles Clippers.

Lou Williams is a two-time former 6MOY winner, who dropped 20/game this year and was constant offense for a team that had often had no alpha scorer.

But if you dig a little deeper than points, Harrell's all-around impact on the Clippers is not debatable. He led the entire team in VORP, BPM, DBPM, win-shares, and PER (among qualifying players, sorry Boban). He also posted significantly higher ratings than Williams on both sides of the ball.

While there's plenty of blame to go around for the Clippers' refusal to die this season, many of the numbers paint Harrell as the chief culprit. His rugged hustle, relentless motor and consistent, high-IQ play were a model for the rest of L.A. (the Clippers, at least) to follow.

Regards To: Lou Williams, Domantas Sabonis, Derrick Rose



COACH OF THE YEAR: MIKE MALONE

As it's consistently been in years past, Coach of the Year was a bastion of arbitrariness again this year, fought for by several deserving candidates.

I can't knock a vote for Nate McMillan, who dragged the Pacers to another over-achieving season despite a slew of injuries. Nor for Doc Rivers, who Frankensteined a playoff team out of the Clippers' attempted rebuild.

Fringe contenders like Dave Jeorger, Kenny Atkinson, Nick Nurse and Steve Clifford also hold weight, but two candidates stand above the rest here: Mike Budenholzer, and Malone.

All due respect to Budenholzer, but I generally feel Milwaukee's season is as much an indictment of previous coaching as it is his triumph. It's also a massive chicken-or-egg race between he and Executive of the Year contender Jon Horst.

Last year's Bucks were a stacked squad that was highly maligned and misused. Adding Brook Lopez and a couple other pieces unlocked their potential, but spacing the floor around a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo is pretty basic stuff.

What sets Malone apart is how multi-faceted his performance was. The Nuggets were primed to make a leap this year, but many had them pegged for a mid-playoff team. Instead they jostled with the Warriors atop the West for months, despite prolonged absences to several key players.

Malone got the Nuggets to play top-10 defense, turning everyone's preseason concern about them into a strength. He milked max value out of former nobodies like Malik Beasley, Torrey Craig and Monte Morris, the latter of whom is now among the NBA's best backup PGs. And he maintained consistent success amid a violently oscillating lineup structure, with guys like Gary Harris out every other night, Trey Lyles wildly inconsistent, and Isaiah Thomas ultimately a dud.

Lots of deserving campaigns again, but Malone perhaps did the most with the least, and it was more than anyone - even at full strength - expected of Denver.

Regards to: Mike Budenholzer, Nate McMillan, Doc Rivers


MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: PASCAL SIAKAM
What after a few weeks looked like De'Aaron Fox's award to lose was snared by Siakam's out-of-nowhere ascent to likely future All-Star. Fox could've put up a fight, but he staggered a bit as the season went on, along with the Kings' playoff hopes.

Conversely Siakam became a breakout sensation for a Raptors team that went almost half the season missing Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, or both. They still managed to win almost 60 games, buoyed by amazing depth and Siakam's two-way brilliance.

Siakam's numbers surged across the board, including a leap from .508 to .549 shooting, despite almost doubling his attempts per game, and certainly commanding more attention from defenders. Siakam was indispensable on D himself, one of the league's most switchable players, with long limbs, ridiculous motor, and an increasing sense of awareness.

Siakam's case is more bolstered by Toronto's success, and the organic nature of his development therein. Nothing was ascribed about his role this season, nor was there much room for error in the pressure cooker of a Leonard contract year.

What Siakam's given the Raptors is instant Leonard insurance. If Kawhi stays, they'll have one of the scariest frontcourts in the NBA. But even if he leaves, Toronto might not be in such bad shape.

Regards To: De'Aaron Fox, D'Angelo Russell, Paul George


All-Defense Teams
First Team: G-Marcus Smart, G-Jrue Holiday, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Eric Bledsoe, G-Patrick Beverley, F-Derrick Favors, F-Anthony Davis, C-Myles Turner


DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO
Lots of people are going to try and give this award to somebody else, on account of Antetokounmpo's MVP-esque campaign, and that somehow cannibalizing his case here.

If you're looking at the DPOY race impartially, it has to go to either Antetokounmpo, or reigning champ Rudy Gobert. And there are mere hairs between them as candidates. Both are ultimate disruptions, who shoulder each other at or near the top of every major defensive metric, and anchor the NBA's two best team defenses. Both grab a ton of rebounds, and avg 2.5-3 stocks per game.

While Gobert is both the ultimate deterrent and penalty against ill-advised forays to the rim, Giannis is a shape-shifting eraser, who can lock up swingmen as easily as snuff the league's best center. His position-amorphous style is increasingly indicative of NBA trends, and thus of great advantage to the Bucks, who can switch him onto literally any attacker, and bust up otherwise-commonplace pick-n-rolls. It's not an exaggeration that Antetokounmpo is the NBA's single most versatile defender.

As recently as last month, Giannis had a decent edge. Gobert made an impressive late season rally to tighten the individual metrics gap, pull Utah to 50 wins, and nudge them right behind Milwaukee in team defense.

It's at least made the decision extremely difficult, but if we're judging the entire body of work here, and analyzing within the context of an increasingly perimeter-oriented league, Giannis wins by the slimmest of margins.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Paul George, Myles Turner


All-NBA Teams
First Team: G-James Harden, G-Stephen Curry, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Joel Embiid

Second Team: G-Damian Lillard, G-Kyrie Irving, F-Kevin Durant, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Nikola Jokic

Third Team: G-Bradley Beal, G-Russell Westbrook, F-Blake Griffin, F-LeBron James, C-Rudy Gobert


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO

This was tough. This was really, really tough. Honestly, I'd have voted for co-MVP between Giannis and James Harden if I could, but that's too much of a cop-out.

Harden pulled possibly the biggest "Team On My Back" in NBA history. The Rockets confounded the entire NBA with their ineptitude over the season's first two months, but Harden righted the ship with a simply staggering offensive display.

Let the record show that he averaged almost 44 points for an entire fucking month, and had teams literally opening driving lanes for him to prevent his patented step-back three.

Even amid his exaggerated sometimes-sleepy defense, Harden's contributions were Herculean. His 36 ppg average is the most ever by someone not named Michael Jordan or Wilt Chamberlain; his game log peppered with triple-doubles and single-handed victories. As a result, Houston skyrocketed (sorry) from the West's basement to a homecourt seed, without both Chris Paul and Clint Capela for long stretches. It was nothing short of a historic season.

But Antetokounpo's case is just too bulletproof. He too had a historic year; the first guy to post averages of 27/12/5 in over 50 years. Of that rarefied list - on which he joins four straight-up NBA legends - Giannis posted by far the best eFG%, adding all-World defense for good measure. He sits neck-and-neck with Harden atop virtually every major advanced stat, bolstering one of the finest all-around statistical displays ever.

With two all-time great seasons placing Harden vs Antetokounmpo head & shoulders above the rest, Freak has the decisive edge in two areas:

1 - Defense. Harden's defensive commitment wanes from night to night, and even play to play. He's capable of heads-up stopping, but often mails in plays to save himself in between offensive possessions. As noted above, Antetokounmpo was (in my opinion) the NBA's best defender this year.

2 - Dominance. Houston was a total train wreck for the season's first six weeks, which definitely  can't be ignored. The Bucks' season was unimpeachable from the get; owning the NBA's best record and net rating, largely because of Giannis, and the system his unique physique and skill set permit.

It seems like robbery for Harden yet again. This could be his third narrow MVP loss in the past four years. But Giannis' steady ascent to the NBA's very peak reached its destination this season. He's 24 years old; his best is still yet to come.

Regards To: James Harden, Paul George, Joel Embiid

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 2: The West

With the East Preview of out the way, it's time to shift scenery over the Wild Wild West, which, in contrast to its reputation, doesn't look all that wild anymore.

Time was, the entire conference was a stacked bloodbath of potential contenders, with upset potential throughout the playoffs. Now the West's depth has withered like a sun-dried tomato, leaving few established threats and a very distinct caste hierarchy:

The Warriors are unquestionably the conference's best team. Only the Spurs and Clippers have any hope of nabbing the 2nd seed, and beneath them just the Jazz, Grizzlies and Blazers project safely as playoff teams. After that, it's a murky quagmire of on-the-fly rebuilds, precocious upstarts, and identity crises.

While the West's bottom-feeders still have marginally brighter collective futures than their East counterparts, the parity between conferences seems to be inching back towards an equilibrium. How does it all stack up? Let's dive in:

LOTTERY LOCKS:

15. Los Angeles Lakers

After a few years of wayward purgatory at the end of Kobe's career, the Lakers can at least begin to steer themselves in the right direction. While they're free of Bryant's lifetime achievement salary and have a potential future core in the Russell-Ingram-Randle triad, they're still at least a season away from beginning their ascent.

In the meantime they're at least decent fodder for jokes about Timofey Mozgov's contract, the Russell/Nick Young dynamic, and how long it will take Luol Deng to regret signing here.

14. Sacramento Kings
xTo nobody's surprise, the Kings are yet again a mess heading into this year. Instead of building around All-Star DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento seems more likely to trade him, with 1/3 of their roster now centers, and Cousins in near-constant malaise when the franchise does dumb shit like this, and this.

Even with Boogie, the Kings are likely lotto-fodder, but with both he and Rudy Gay swirling around in trade rumors, there could be a total bottom-out on the way in Sac-Town. Hopefully they use the upcoming lottery pick more wisely.

12. New Orleans Pelicans
xNot a wicked franchise arc for the Pels right now. Their pseudo-attempt at Win Now Mode topped out at the 8-seed, and now they're left with an ambiguous bottom-rung roster.

Anthony Davis is obviously awesome, but becoming somewhat of a lock to miss ~15 games every year. Jrue Holiday's indefinite absence leaves their point guard situation (an E'Twaun Moore/Norris Cole/Langston Galloway smorgasbord) in heavy flux. The Pels employ three terrible centers, are relying on a few guys literally playing for their careers, and have the Solomon Hill contract to answer for. Don't expect it to happen this year.

13. Phoenix Suns


The Suns' backcourt is pretty stacked. Shifting Brandon Knight to the bench is a natural adjustment that will allow him to see minutes at both guard spots against bench units he'll completely torch.

The frontcourt however remains a mystery, but has breakout potential. Alex Len's infuriating inconsistency should benefit from a year of health, while Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss look like impact rookies. Either way there will be growing pains, and not much stock in a playoff run for another season at least.

11. Denver Nuggets

Denver's a tough team to peg this year. Heavy on mid-level assets, they've been involved in rumored blockbusters for years, but have never managed to work out a deal for a star with their myriad Kenneth Faried packages.

That could change this year, with Jusuf Nurkic very expendable, up-and-comers Will Barton and Gary Harris showing out (with lotto pick Jamal Murray waiting in the wings), and Danilo Gallinari coming off a career year if a Denver finds someone willing to gamble on his health. Really their only untouchable is Nikola Jokic, which leaves them open to many possibilities.

This roster could look very different even a couple months from now, but even as constructed, they have a balanced attack of good-to-elite shooters surrounding one of the league's best young big men. They project as a below-average defensive unit (hence why they're here) but Denver should be at worst a fun League Pass watch.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

10. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs' long string of shitty free agency luck kept spooling this summer when they settled for maxing out Harrison Barnes in perhaps the summer's most  egregious money-bonfire. Swiping Andrew Bogut from the Warriors' Durant Sale was a pleasant surprise (marking the first time the Mavs' summer center plans didn't get fucked over), but likely won't be enough to keep their playoff streak alive.

The Mavs have depth issues across the board, and will be able to rely less and less on Dirk Nowitzki's German-engineered longevity. Their fate lies in the hands of several past-their-prime guys most of whom have spotty health records. Unless Harrison Barnes is worth every dollar (and the safe bet is that he isn't), Dallas will be facing a transition very soon.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

Welcome to Team Next. Now show-run by an elite basketball mind, and with the NBA's best stable of young talent, the Wolves are primed for a major leap this year.

Having Tom Thibodeau calling the shots instead of glorified assistant Sam Mitchell will mean all the difference in the World, especially to a young troupe of athletic legs with lots to learn and stamina to keep up with Thibs' rigor.

Most of their roster has upside to realize, Karl-Anthony Towns is an MVP-in-waiting, and Kris Dunn looks like arguably this year's most impactful rookie. Even just natural growth and continuity would hugely benefit these guys, but such a significant coaching upgrade will be like an HGH boost. They're doubtful to actually crack the playoffs, but don't expect them to be far off.

8. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are going to be an awesome League Pass team this year. Mike D'Antoni and a noticeable shooting upgrade are going to usher in a new era of high-paced :07 Seconds or Less offensive artistry.

Houston will rack up points, which is good, because they couldn't defend a parked Vespa. They have leaks everywhere on D, starting two minus defenders (Nene, Eric Gordon) and two abhorrently bad ones (Ryan Anderson, and perennial YouTube legend James Harden). With all the easy paths to the hoop, their only rim protector (Clint Capela) has awareness and positioning issues. Plus their best defender (Patrick Beverly) is missing the season's first 6 weeks.

Harden's new purely-cosmetic point guard designation will be plentiful with so much spacing around him, but Anderson, Gordon and Trevor Ariza aren't spreed demons; teams with long, switchable perimeter D (and there's more of them every year) could force turnovers and contested shots easily.

7. Oklahoma City Thunder

So ya, Kevin Durant's obviously gone. That sucks. But Russell Westbrook didn't bolt, and he's about to put on a Man On Fire act unlike any we've seen. That alone should carry OKC to the playoffs, in a West middle tier that suddenly isn't as fearsome anymore.

While Westbrook is one-man instant offense, the Thunder's spacing looks very weird, with little outside shooting and a Kanter/Adams post combo with maybe 6-8 feet of range. OKC is also depressingly thin at the 3 and 4, making Durant's absence all the more noticeable. Vic Oladipo will benefit nicely from Westbrook sucking defenses in like a Dyson - routinely creating open looks than he ever would've had in Orlando - but the Thunder are one of the NBA's ideal lane-clogging targets for opposing D.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES:

6. Portland Trailblazers

Portland shocked the NBA last year with an unlikely ascent into the West playoffs after losing five of their six best players over the summer of 2015. While there's no denying they blew away expectations as a team, the Blazers' results definitely benefited from several teams (namely the two that follow here) dealing with perpetual roster-wide injury. Thus, while they're a better team on paper, they'll have a tough time holding their footing.

That said, the Blazers have lots of potential upside to realize in their weirdly-effective frontcourt, and a more physical, athletic presence after committing grand larceny with the Festus Ezeli deal. Evan Turner is perhaps the NBA's best Swiss Army Knife 6th Man, and should thrive in an identical role and similar system to his Boston gig. Slotting Portland here kinda has to be done, but feels very much like their floor, especially if Allen Crabbe's worth anywhere even in the same area code as his new contract.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

RIP Grit N Grind. With Chandler Parsons' acquisition and Zach Randolph's bench demotion, the Grizz have finally drank the potion and zagged with most of the NBA into a space-and-pace system. Parsons, when healthy, is precisely the kind of player the Grizzlies have longed for, but the "when healthy" part highlights a major concern for Memphis.

As much as Randolph and Tony Allen are still cornerstones of the Grizzlies' culture and identity, their on-court makeup rests heavily on Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Parsons, all of whom are coming off serious injuries with unclear long-term implications. It's supremely unlikely Memphis' roster is hit as hard by injury as last year, but a fully healthy season would be a pleasant surprise.

4. Utah Jazz

The Jazz have "leap" written all over them this year. Where to start? First off they have a stable
chocked full of young talent, any of whom could take large personal strides.

They also now start an average point guard, which would seem like a ho-hum statement if Utah's PG situation wasn't perhaps the single most deficient position in the NBA last year. As a bonus, they return Dante Exum from injury, embarking on one of the league's more intriguing dice-rolls at backup.

Utah, like Memphis, were also hit hard by injuries last year. While Gordon Hayward hasn't gotten them off to a great start they're even less likely than the Grizz to see such misfortune repeat itself. With fewer lineup shifts, Utah's young core will benefit from continuity and collective growth. They also made a couple great on-the-low offseason signings in Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, who provide veteran presence and are still capable on-court contributors.

Add it all up and it's hard to see Utah not leaping at least several spots up this season's West standings.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

One of the NBA's most frustrating teams, the Clippers seem stubbornly bent on maxing out as a 3-seed and getting knocked out in the 2nd round every year. They have the pieces - one of the NBA's best Big-3s surrounded by a passable 2-way supporting cast and coached by one of the best - but the health, stamina, focus and overall desire are all question marks.

You pretty much know what you're getting with this virtually-unchanged roster. If they can string together a healthy season from both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, they could challenge San Antonio for the 2-seed, but overall their potential range is very narrow. Only a serious injury will drop them out the West's top-3, and only a miracle will get them past the Spurs or Warriors in the spring.

2. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs without Tim Duncan is going to be weird; like a peanut butter sandwich without the jam, Meth without Red, or Dany Targaryen without dragons. As the Spurs shift into a new era, they've found themselves a decent placeholder at center in Pau Gasol (albeit one who's far worse defensively).

There are several questions surrounding the Spurs' season, including how much Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have left in the tank, the prospects of trading LaMarcus Aldridge, and how severe Pop's separation anxiety from Duncan will be.

Regardless, the Spurs set a franchise record for wins last year with Duncan in a cameo role, and rock by far the league's most stable system and pedigree. They're as safe a bet for the West's #2 seed as any team in any spot league-wide.

1. Golden State Warriors 
They won 73 games last year, then got Kevin Durant. What else do you want.



Stay tuned for Part 3: The Hardware, dropping any day now....

Friday, October 23, 2015

Banter's 2015-16 NBA Preview: Part II - The West


We got the (L)East out of the way, now time to move on to the Bestern Conference:

15- Portland Trailblazers
There's bad offseasons, and then there's what happened to the Blazers this summer, which ranks somewhere between the Ashley Madison hack and Fantastic 4 among 2015's biggest mishaps. Losing five of your six best players in two weeks is something an NBA team rarely has to cope with, but the Blazers got dealt a "Rebuild" card about as swiftly as can be done.

Damian Lillard will be on the warpath, and that itself might be enough to win Portland a few games. They have the faint potential to form a passable nucleus of the young talent they've scrapped together, but guys like CJ McCollum and (especially) Noah Vonleh are unproven and won't keep Portland from freefalling this year.

14- Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are just a complete nightmare right now. Having Lou Williams, Nick Young and Kobe on the same roster is like playing Hungry Hungry Hippos with one ball. Their opening night starting frontcourt are two of the most washed "name" players in the NBA. Ron Artest is on their team again.

I guess it's the Lakers, so the season prognosis could easily include a Brandon Bass/Nicki Minaj TMZ sex scandal, Jordan Clarkson assault arrest, or rehab for Ryan Kelly. At least all indications are that D'Angelo Russell is the truth, and Julius Randle will (let's hope) play more this year, which saves the Lakers from being totally forsaken.

13- Minnesota Timberwolves

There's plenty to be excited about for Minnesota fans - the most since Kevin Garnett first burst onto the scene. They've got an enviable troupe of young upstarts, led by back-to-back #1 picks, at least one of whom appears to be a home run in the making. But there will definitely be growing pains, almost inevitably a Ricky Rubio injury to weather, and Flip Saunders' difficult cancer battle looming over the season.

Nik Pekovic and Kevin Martin linger as lame-duck cap-cloggers (though Martin's current deal is an absolute steal for Minny), while the Wolves develop some kind of an identity from their youth movement. They could be a couple spots better if Wiggins leaps and Karl Towns justifies the hype, but they're a few years short of becoming a force in a conference this deep.

12- Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have been the NBA's official Team Purgatory for years now. Stuck somewhere in that awkward phase between contending and rebuilding, they seem stubbornly bent on pushing against the major championship-or-bust trend sweeping the league.

This year should be no exception; don't count on Denver to challenge for either the playoffs or best lottery odds, as they race to the lower-tier of mediocrity. Losing their best player certainly won't help, as Ty Lawson's alcohol antics drove him in a swerving Benz out of town. As such, the Nuggets will be leaning heavily on highly-touted rookie Emmanel Mudiay to get touches for their shooters (Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler) and create for their offensively-limited bigs (JJ Hickson, Kenneth Faried). Mudiay has the makings of a strong pro, but no doubt will be a downgrade at first from Lawson's lethal slash-and-kick filleting. The Nuggets should get a strong season from Gallo, after he went ape-shit down the stretch last year and appears to be every bit healthy.

The presence of Mike Malone will definitely benefit this squad though; a great coach (anyone who breaks through with DeMarcus Cousins deserves a 30 for 30) who got waxed in brutally comical fashion in Sacramento. Good to see him back on the sidelines, but this team needs far more than just a strong coach in their long-term plot.


11- Sacramento Kings

This season's Sacramento Kings have the potential to be one the most fascinating teams in NBA
history.

They are Russian Roulette in the form of a professional sports franchise; so many possible outcomes - not many of them good. We could start with George Karl and the aforementioned DeMarcus Cousins; a union of old-school coach and volatile superstar that (to the surprise of absolutely nobody) is already being massaged in the media. Then add in Rajon Rondo, the petulant would-be star who wore out his welcome with two teams in the past 9 months and is playing very much for himself this season.

Those two variables alone are enough to cause intrigue, but then consider that Vivek Ranadive -probably the most unpredictable owner in the NBA - is calling the shots, Getcha popcorn.

10- Dallas Mavericks
So this wasn't exactly a good offseason for Mark Cuban and the Mavs.

Tyson Chandler is gone. So is Monta Ellis. As too is DeAndre Jordan (too soon?), and even an en-vogue asset like Al-Farouq Aminu. The players Dallas is counting on to fill the void are a rag-tag bunch of has-beens (Sam Dalembert, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, etc), a solid 3rd big (Zaza Pachulia) and the immortal JaVale McGee. Their best acquisition - and most costly gamble - just came off achilles surgery. Their lone star (it is Texas) is 37 years old. These are facts.

Dallas rode Nowitzki to a truly outstanding run over the past 15 years, but this might be the end of the line for a team that's missed the playoffs just once since 2000.

9- Phoenix Suns
It was a (politely put) interesting summer in Phoenix; one marked by a series of Markieff Morris hissy-fits and the quizzical decision to ink Tyson Chandler. Chandler's an elite defender and efficient scorer - definitely a guy you want on your team - but his arrival stymies the burgeoning Alex Len, and reeks of a "contend now" mentality; something the Suns are nowhere near.

Though Morris is putting up the "All is Good" front with the media, Ryan McDonough might be strongarmed into trading him sub-value as he was with Goran Dragic last February. Phoenix's backcourt is dangerous (especially against unathletic guards), but they have a lot of question marks on the wing and at the four (which is basically a wing position now anyway). If Mirza Teletovic fits well and Morris avoids doing Morris things, Phoenix could challenge for the playoffs, but count on this one turning out like their last two efforts.

8- Utah Jazz
If there's a walking argument for the value of a good rim protector, it's Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz. Last season, the Jazz were a lottery-bound defensive flounder with Enes Kanter - a porous defender - playing most of their center minutes.

With Gobert's ability demanding a starting spot, and the unhappy Kanter demanding a trade, Utah's play was obvious. They went 19-10 post-trade with the Rude Boi starting, and became one of the NBA's best defensive teams overnight. The Dante Exum injury is an unfortunate wrench in their plans (Trey Burke's not exactly an ideal starting PG), but everything else about this team - from Alec Burks' return, to continued growth from pretty much their whole young lineup (especially the recently-23 Gobert) is trending up.

Dallas and Portland's summers of despair left voids in the exclusive West Playoff Club. With OKC certainly taking one, the Jazz look like a safe bet to nab the last spot.

7- New Orleans Pelicans

Team Brow is on the come-up, but unfortunately for them, the West is more stacked with legit
contenders right now than any conference ever.

This is basically an identical roster to the one the Pelicans closed shop with in early May, but a few things have shifted: 1) they'll (very likely) be healthier than last year, 2) they'll be coached by someone who actually knows what's happening on offense, and most importantly 3) they'll get another year of frightening development from Anthony Davis.

Once unleashed in Alvin Gentry's full-throttle system, Davis is likely to cause the type of devastation normally reserved by violent typhoons for small Pacific islands. Davis - the NBA's PER leader - was just 26th in usage rate last year (behind the likes of Marreese Speights and Ish Smith). You can bet that number will go up significantly, but don't count on the Pelicans to crash the West's VIP party just yet.

6- Memphis Grizzlies
It sucks for me to have to demote my favorite team after they got better this summer (convincing Brandan Wright to sign for as little as he did was a shameless pillage), but such is life in the West these days.

You know what you're getting with Memphis: a gruesomely slow, rugged game; physical harassment from Tony Allen, physical abuse from Zach Randolph, methodically efficient two-way surgery from Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, and fewer team defense leaks than you'll find in pretty much any lineup. Memphis will make you struggle to score, but the question remains if they won't give themselves the same trouble.

Jeff Green failed to put them over the hump offensively last season, and while the bench got grittier this summer (Wright and the always-bout-it Matt Barnes) the Grizzle need shooters, and guys who can contrast the #GNG mentality offensively, in order to get to the next level.

5- Houston Rockets
The Rockets have drawn an unusual amount of on-the-low hate from both pundits and fans who
shame their plain-oatmeal offense, James Harden's alleged flopping, and just about everything Dwight Howard does.

Entangled partly in that sentiment has been Houston's exclusion among the trendy "contenders" heading into '15-'16, even after this team snatched the 2-seed as a walking ICU, then made the West Finals. Adding Ty Lawson was huge (especially given his crisis-sale price tag), giving them another uptempo playmaker who's highly adept at getting into the paint the creating open looks - the maxim Houston's offense thrives upon.

Losing Josh Smith is negligible with Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas both returning healthy; the Rockets can surely count on better continuity this season with fewer bodies in and out of service. It's hard to keep them out of the top four; I feel like I might be selling Clutch City short. But then there's...

4- OKC Thunder

I could probably just write the words "Kevin Durant" here and be done with it, but we'll take a closer look: OKC has a sneakily-deep rotation, offset only slightly by the presence of defensive duds (Enes Kanter) and delusional pseudo-stars (Dion Waiters).

While Kanter is an obvious liability on D, he also shares the paint with arguably the NBA's most feared help defender (Serge Ibaka); a slight deterrent against picking on him too much. DJ Augustin has proven himself a high-energy pocket rocket of a backup PG; one who won't give 2nd units much of a breather when Durant or Russ Westbrook briefly hits the bench. Nick Collison is a crafty vet on a great contract, Steven Adams is a resolute backup big, and Anthony Morrow is about as dangerous a spacing threat as someone not named "Kyle Korver" can be.

Which is to say this team is more than just Durant and Westbrook, though those two on their own could probably carry the squad. Westy's Man on Fire  act will be much tougher to contain with a former MVP sharing the defense's attention, and a coach who can actually draw up plays on the Thunder bench. This could very well be their last shot at a title run with Durant - at the very least they could use a clean bill of health for once.

3- L.A. Clippers
The Clippers' offseason could be described in many ways, but "entertaining" is probably the most accurate way to sum it up. Not only did we get witness the Passion of the DeAndre unfold in real time, but saw the Clippers upgrade their pathetically shallow roster in the most hilarious ways possible.

First is the Paul Pierce/Doc Rivers dynamic, reuniting two infamous Ubuntu veterans who just happen to have two of the highest villain profiles in the NBA right now; they'll feed off each other like vinegar and baking soda. Then there's the Josh Smith signing, tossing a possibly-reformed knucklehead into a delicate chemistry mix (Chris Paul's temper is shorter than Earl Boykins, and this franchise is absolutely feeling the "Win Now" burn). As if Smith weren't enough, they nabbed a never-reformed knucklehead in Lance Stephenson, setting up two certainties: 1) Rivers will fully earn the coaching portion of his salary this year, and 2) Lance/CP3 will be Banter's official Buddy Comedy for the upcoming season.

But see the thing is, unless Stephenson completely implodes (he won't have nearly as much room to wreak havoc as he did in Charlotte), these moves make the Clippers a much more rounded, frightening team. They might finally have the depth around their stars to crack the West, but there are a couple minor issues in their way:

2- San Antonio Spurs
So the Spurs have LaMarcus Aldridge now. That's a thing that happened. Essentially giving up Tiago Splitter (a fine asset, but not a fringe-MVP), RC Buford and Gregg Popvich pulled a coup that forces the whole NBA to take notice that they weren't finished. But these are the Spurs, of course they aren't.

As Aldridge assumes the go-to offensive duty, he'll have reigning DPOY Kawhi Leonard flanking him with omnipresent brilliance and the still-Big 3 of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili settling in as the sickest role-player corps in modern NBA history. The Alamo has just a stupid amount of depth up front, with Boris Diaw, David West, and Matt Bonner also seeing minutes. This is contrasted by the backcourt losses of Cory Joseph and Marco Belinelli, whom the Spurs will amply replace because, well, they're the Spurs.

Leonard and Danny Green are locked up long-term on very thrifty deals, putting San Antonio in great position once their leadership fully recycles and Duncan & Co. retire. But forget the future, this team is going to be a dynamite-spiked wrecking ball this year. Just keep clear of the devastation.

1- Golden State Warriors

Even in what could prove to be the most top-heavy conference in NBA history, you still have to give Golden State the benefit of any doubt. They blitzed the league at a historic level for 82 games, then marched authoritatively to a title. They made no major moves because they didn't have to (essentially turning the book-bloating David Lee into bargain-basement Jason Thompson), and even with the Spurs' jackpot summer, figure to be the better regular season team.

While San Antonio adjusts to their new centrifugal figure and rests their aging stars, the Warriors will benefit from the continuity (<--NBA buzzword alert) and swagger of being an unaltered squad, not to mention the champs. They're deep, and can cause matchup nightmares for just about any type of lineup, making them perfectly suited for the 82-game long haul.

A summer of hearing how the Spurs are now the favorites, and the Dubs somehow "got lucky" (c. Doc Rivers) last spring, has provided a little extra motivation to the title defense. These guys are pissed. And they're more than capable of taking out some frustration.

I'll be wrapping things up with Part III (The Hardware) next Monday, get involved.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Putting the "Dead" in Deadline

The Trade Deadline came and went last week; a date that had built up with blockbuster potential for months "climaxed" dully with the seemingly inevitable dumping of Danny Granger's contract.

Despite an army of franchises actively shopping attractive assets, and others seeking to shake things up, the market may have over-played itself. Many teams' asking prices were reportedly too high, leaving most parties at the trade table favoring the upcoming loaded Draft and Free Agent classes to make their moves.

So what now for the teams that seemed destined to make moves, but hesitated to pull the trigger? Were they wise in waiting? What can they expect going forward? Let's see which GMs have screwed themselves, and which should come out on top:

Boston Celtics 
Rajon Rondo still being a Celtic is among the more bizarre aftermath of the Deadline, with Danny Ainge suddenly holding onto a guy he'd been shopping for years, at what seemed like the most logical time to finally deal him.

The irony of Ainge's decision gets diluted when you consider that Rondo's actually a very good fit for a young team searching for its identity through a re-build, as a versatile cog for a smart coach who's a whiz with quirky lineups. Keeping him can't be an awful decision; he's a Top 15-ish player, just turned 28, and his market value could rise if Boston suddenly seems less keen on dumping him.

It's one of those hands that's hard to misplay; Boston might not have liked offers that came their way, but being left to rebuild with one of the NBA's best point guards isn't a Saw game, which Ainge may be realizing.

Toronto Raptors
Few GMs in pro sports history have developed reputations as movers and shakers as quickly and astutely as Ujiri. After ousting the Raptors' two ugliest contracts in moves that showed immediate + returns, Masai was rumored to be in talks around a deal for Kyle Lowry for most of this season.

Masai's inability to move Lowry is a minor disappointment, but hardly a fatal wound for Toronto. The reality is that Lowry's trade value has never been this high, and likely never will be again, so unless he's their point guard going forward, the time to bail was now. His superb play this season will absolutely earn him more money next year, and it's unclear if he'll be as fit and motivated with his new deal locked up.

Masai's track record might even be hurting his cause, with at least one (confirmed) case of a team unwilling to be "fleeced" by him again. Regardless, few people in NBA front offices - likely only Daryl Morey - understand trading assets like Ujiri, and with virtually every player in Toronto's rotation playing up their own stock this year, he'll have nice pieces to work with, even if Lowry is signs elsewhere.

Houston Rockets
Speaking of Daryl Morey, his own shrewdness has come back to bite him in the ass.

Two years ago, Morey snaked the criminally under-utilized Omer Asik from the Bulls with a "poison pill" contract that saw his originally meager salary triple in its upcoming final year.

In the meantime, Asik's been one of the NBA's most improved players, and best defensive centers, but Morey's attempt to pass the buck (literally) on Asik's bloated remaining year came undone. Teams were wary of the looming salary boom, and Morey's habit of usually being way smarter than the guy on the other end of the phone.

And so, after the passing of several team-mandated deadlines, and finally the League's, Omer Asik is still on the Houston Rockets, in a limited reserve role, openly unhappy, and due almost $15 million next season.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Among the League's relative disappointments this season (remember, this is still largely a David Kahn team), the Wolves are seemingly under pressure to release Kevin Love from the pack.

A continually visibly unhappy superstar whose contract expires after next year, Love will eventually leave Minnesota, but they can decide whether on their terms or his. The lack of action last week only hurts their rebuild timetable; it's not as though there won't still be teams lining up for him in the offseason, when offices with room to maneuver might be more willing to make a big play for a superstar.

The Wolves need to begin to treat this with urgency though. Love can't remain undealt going into next season; it will delay the inevitable, shroud their team in uncertainty, and give opposing GMs more leverage as his departure draws closer. This is just like ripping off a Band-Aid; it will hurt a lot less if done quickly.

L.A. Lakers 
Everyone and their grandmother on Twitter spent the weeks leading up to the Deadline suggesting that Pau Gasol was about to be dealt, but the Lakers were unlikely to get as much value out of Gasol as they could this summer.

The Lakers are unloading most of their payroll in July, and can either re-sign Gasol at a significant rebate via 'Bird Rights', or let him walk and have eight figures in extra cap room. That cap room is intrinsically worth more to the Lakers than most franchises; they're able to attract top-tier talent easily and will never have to overpay someone to join them.

Already armed with a fresh Spending License, and a very good shot at a high Lottery pick, this was probably good spot for the Lakers to bide their time.

New York Knicks
Carmelo's still a Knick, and the odds of him re-signing in a few months rest somewhere between New York's chances of making the Playoffs, and having a Lottery pick in this year's Draft.

Knicks fans, my continued sympathies.


Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Back Like Obama: The NBA Returns

This time last year, we were all in hell.

Days were getting colder, nights were getting longer, and we were facing the seeming certainty that there would be no NBA action to carry us through the long, harsh winter. 

Saved by a last-minute (though hastily-compromised, we'll see how that plays in five years) CBA agreement, we got our season, and this year us Canadian fans might even get to enjoy baketball without the constant pestering of the NHL, mired in its own lockout.

A week into the season, things are at the usual frantic pace as teams welcome newcomers and jostle for position out of the gate. Here's a look around the League at some of the highlights: 

- The early season thunder (pun intended) was stolen suddenly when OKC woke up out of nowhere and traded James Harden to the Rockets after contract talks went south. Things got thicker than James' beard when he took off with an MVP-like romp to open the season, completely revitalizing Houston's hoops scene.

The unfortunate word out of the Thunder camp is that Harden was unwilling to budge on a deal that was $5m below the max, but would have covered the difference in easy incentives, dealing a huge blow to the Thunder's uber-nucleus. So, facing four max players on a small-market team, Sam Presti's hand was forced, and now instead of a player blossoming into the NBA's best two-way two guard, he's left with a great scorer and defender at the position, unfortunately they're just not the same person. The Thunder have also started the season looking like a feeble shell of the team that shook the Spurs last May, and who's to know if they can regain their swagger?

On the other hand, you've got the Rockets, who are looking like Anna Nicole Smith post-divorce (and pre-bloating), happily inking Harden to the max after stockpiling assets for years to land a player of his caliber. The Beard now teams with Linsanity to form perhaps the NBA's most intriguing backcourt, has all the room to shine, a city on his back, money in his pocket, and a straight-up frightening start to the season under his belt. Only time will tell, but this has all the makings of a historic, franchise-altering move for both teams. 

- Amid the Harden shockwaves were tremors out of Los Angeles, where the Lakers started 0-3 and underwhelmed everyone. The problems were plenty: Mike Brown shackling his imposing offensive arsenal with a Princeton system, a lack of defensive cohesion to mask the holes at several positions, incomplete health (something massively exacerbated by Steve Nash's demise). Where the Lakers go from here is anybody's guess, but by the time Nash returns in a couple weeks, if this ship doesn't begin to right itself, Mike Brown might be getting the axe. I'm not entirely sure why he has this job to begin with, but Brown trying to co-ordinate an offense for Nash and Kobe Bryant is sort of like Riff Raff trying to give Kendrick Lamar rapping lessons.

Mike, take a page from Erik Spoelstra, who's survived a baptism-by-fire in Miami to actually become one of the NBA's better coaches, recently saying that putting Lebron James "in a box" (theoretically) during his first year in Miami "was the worst thing I could've done". You've got revolutionary talent on your team, and the two players leading it are both more experienced and simply smarter than you offensively. Let them do their thing.

- The remaining unbeaten teams are (somewhat predictably) the Spurs, and (complete f***ing shocker) the Knicks and Bucks. San Antonio's doing what they always do: play monotonously effective basketball, Milwaukee's only played two games, but the Knicks have been shooting the lights out, despite being old, hobbled and hated on by pretty much everyone outside of Manhattan (they don't even have the other Boroughs anymore). Melo's been playing like he heard everyone's mumbles about his mentality this summer, Raymond Felton appears to have shed his Burger King addiction, and Mike Woodson might finally have made a sane human being out of JR Smith. Of course, this is the Knicks so things could be a Rasheed Wallace drug violation away from completely unraveling, stay tuned.

- The player everyone was probably most anxious to see - human pogo stick/ROY apparent/unibrow revolutionist Anthony Davis - was abruptly sidelined after concussion-like syndromes from an inadvertent Austin Rivers elbow ("thanks, pal!") prevented him from traveling with the team by plane after the NBA went all NFL on us and revised their policies about head injuries. The issue of brain damage from sports injuries is a very serious and relevant one; in all cases, not just that of a rookie phenom. But Hornets coach Monty Williams spoke out and hit all the right points; that basketball's a much less physical game, that this policy was revised without much history within the sport, and the players should be more involved in the decision (Davis was apparently fine the next day). That and my fantasy team's already got enough injuries.

- Meanwhile, over in Oregon, Blazers rookie Damian Lillard has been putting on a clinic and setting the bar very high for Davis. If the Summer League and Preseason exhibitions he put on weren't enough to convince you that the stunner of Draft Lottery might also be its best player this year, then tune into a Portland game on League Pass, watch his lethal stroke, killer quickness, great passing for a score-first guard, and try lying to yourself and saying he isn't the truth. It'll likely be a two-horse race for ROY, but it should be a damn good one.

- Mavs' owner Mark Cuban's been back in the headlines (where he seems to have taken a slight backseat from after his failed foray in Major League Baseball), picking fights with Donald Trump via Twitter in an effort to get Trump to first shave his immortally horrendous haircut off for charity, and then to match Cuban's $1m for Sandy relief (in his own state no less) when The Donald scoffed at the offer. Say what you want about Mark Cuban; he comes across as arrogant and maybe a man in his position has the right to, but he speaks his mind, is the best owner in the NBA, and in this case is using his public platform to not only raise money for a good cause, but have fun at the expense of one of the most unanimously disliked people in the World. Try and hate.

- Until Love and Rubio return and make Minnesota the indisputable Official Team of League Pass, there should be an interesting fight for the interim title. Houston has to be included for Harden Watch after his early season antics. Golden State's playing some inspiring ball, has several players to watch, and could actually (maybe) be something this year. The Clippers are obvious choices. The Cavs are less obvious ones. But for my money, I'm going to be watching a lot of Nuggets games over the next few weeks. Their team is young, exciting and dynamic; they play the kind of gritty, unselfish basketball you'd expect a good team with no superstar to play, but with a level of flair an athleticism that has to put them high for any true fan. Then there's the added bonus value of Javale McGee doing something completely, utterly unforgettable. Makes an easy win.

And last, but most definitely not least, a salute to David Stern - unmistakably the best commissioner in pro sports today - who recently announced his impending retirement after what will be a 30-year reign that saw him steer the NBA from fringe market to global juggernaut. He presided over an era of absurd economic expansion that saw professional basketball become adopted in media and countries it had previously never heard of. As with any commissioner there were highs and lows; along with his knack for expansion and reputation as a policy guru, relentless worker, and "stern" negotiator, were failed attempts at social engineering (the Dress Code), failed attempts to keep his owners' wallets in line (resulting in two season-shortening lockouts, though let us note the MLB and NHL both lost entire seasons to lockouts during his tenure), failed attempts to keep his referees from fixing games for the mob, and obvious signs of a decline into senility (the Chris Paul Fiasco). Despite these blemishes, the historical record will surely state that Stern was a basketball legend for his impact on the game's sharp rise in popularity. He was as steady a leader as a league that constantly found itself in public turmoil could ask for, and we can only hope (as is indicative) that Adam Silver will wear the shoes well.

Here's to an awesome season, enjoy and take care.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Call of Duty: Dwyane Wade and The Yao Ming Tragedy

It had almost been too long since a Miami Heat superstar put his foot in his mouth. Lebron James and Chris Bosh had been displaying an unbecoming mature silence of late, and perhaps aware of his slipping on-court contributions, Dwyane Wade made an odd mis-step with a very foolish public statement: That NBAers should be paid to play in the Olympics.

There's so much wrong with this: that it got said in the first place; that Wade isn't fit with the pride that comes from bringing your country the greatest honor you can; that he tried to cloak his selfishness by contrasting it to the plight of broke college students who are actually being taken advantage of...

Lost in the framing of ridiculous context is the single valid point Wade managed to make: "The biggest thing is now you get no rest,"... "So you go to the end of the season, [Team USA] training camp is two weeks later. You're giving up a lot to do it. It's something you want to do. But it's taxing on your body. You're not playing for the dollar. But it would be nice if you would get compensated." This is pretty reasonable, especially for a guy like Wade who hasn't taken a possession off since AAU, but does a guy like him with a $100 million contract, countless endorsements, and even more public appearance checks really need to pilfer his country's basketball program? You're either playing for the dollar or you're not Dwyane. Just be glad this isn't 1941; that'd be much more taxing free labor.

While Wade's statements are sure to rile up tons of misguided debate about the general selfishness and pretentiousness of pro athletes (remember, stupidity sells), the above excerpt calls to mind a very valid point made by Mark Cuban; that it's really the owners who are getting screwed. And even after I spent months ripping the owners for their near-squandering of our NBA season, I'm inclined to agree with him.

It's a touchy topic, especially without a large sample of players having been injured in the Olympics to draw scrutiny to the issue, but the truth about what International play can do to a player can be drawn from the tragic story of Yao Ming, who had his career stolen far too early in the name of his country's pride.

A lot of fans are quick to incorrectly lump Yao in the Greg Oden/Sam Bowie category; a massive body that wasn't built to hold itself and was bound for self-implosion. A fallacy. It doesn't take a Rocket scientist (sorry, couldn't resist) to see what happened with Yao, who played in 82, 82 and 80 games over his first 3 NBA seasons.

Meanwhile, his native China was developing technologically at an astounding rate, discovering basketball, and fucking loving it. Conveniently for their government, this explosion of popularity coincided with (and was undoubtedly helped by) Yao's dominance, and he became the face, heart, arms and legs of their national team. But this wasn't some once-every-four-years-biggest-tournament-in-the-world type shit; Yao would fly back to Beijing the day he hung up his Rockets jersey, every offseason, and begin touring with the Chinese team, essentially prolonging his basketball grind year-round. It's not like he had a choice in the matter...

The effects took hold quickly: Yao would play in 57, 48, and 55 games over the next three years, eventually missing entire seasons before shutting it down for good at the ripe age of 30. It sucked for Yao, but you know who really got the short end of the stick? The Houston Rockets.

Yao might've been cut down way before he was due, but he's still doing fine: he's a multi-millionaire, global basketball ambassador, and nothing short of a hero in China. The Rockets, on the other hand, were robbed of the NBA's best center in his prime. They had a #1 overall pick that they labored for years to get snatched from them, which in the process set their franchise back another decade or so. Forget the millions of dollars they lost, they gave up their equity in a championship foundation. Houston had plenty of reason to act a fool when David Stern shut down their Pau Gasol trade, but the underhanded crippling of Yao Ming was by far the decade's most overlooked NBA disaster. That a league allows its players and owners to be taken advantage of without protecting them against such crooked and self-destructive stupidity (you think Yao wouldn't still be the best player on the Chinese team?) is mindless.

The answer isn't obvious, but the question lingers and has to be addressed. With all the clamor about Wade's ridiculousness, there's got to be something said for this mess. If he goes down fighting for his country, he's not taking the ultimate loss, and at the end of the day, a couple extra dollars in his pocket will mean nothing next to what his absence will for his team and their fans.

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

"...Still a Whole Lot to Lose"

..So what now? It seemed like the entire Association was on guard for years, eagerly awaiting the summer of 2010 and gutting their rosters for the best chance at cashing in on the free agent jackpot. Most of them now return to the drawing board with their hands empty and their dreams dashed, facing the very daunting task of competing with a potential dynasty in Miami to deliver the title their fans all hoped this offseason would help bring home.


As the aftershocks from a ridiculous summer begin to settle, so too does the reality that the Heat are going to be very difficult to contend with this year. Few people on any side of the argument think that anyone besides the current champs and maaaybe a healthy Celtics squad could realistically beat them, and the teams with even a remote chance at doing so can be counted on a single hand. What for the past few seasons had looked like a wide open title chase is suddenly an exclusive endeavor that few teams will even catch a glimpse of.


Despite this cold new frontier, those that won't be playing for a championship will still have lots to lose, if not little to win. Without even mentioning a potential lockout, there's plenty of reason for urgency in many NBA cities; everything from plummeting profits and attendance to unhappy superstars and reputations to protect. Even in the ominous shadow of the league's best teams, the pressure will be immense and the outcomes potentially devastating. Someone's bound to get the worst of it, so giving some benefit of the doubt to the champs and the heir apparents (who, despite having a title to defend and expectations higher than Method Man to meet, are clearly on top of things), here are the ten teams with the most on the line this year:


10. Houston Rockets
Eight years ago, the Rockets drafted Yao Ming first overall in the hopes that he would be a dominant big man and ambassador of a game whose popularity was exploding in his native China. They managed to build a solid cast around he and T-Mac, every season promising a title run to its fans, every season ended prematurely by a fatal array of injuries to their stars. While Yao's done admirably when able, the toll that a decade of non-stop basketball (thanks to ridiculous offseason demands from the Chinese national team) took its toll on his brittle body, keeping him on the chilling list for large slumps of his career. This season will be his most important ever, as Yao, his doctors, and the Rockets all point to another injury being the end of his career. If he stays healthy, pairing him with Kevin Martin will give the Rockets an offensive punch they sorely lacked all last year and surely put them in the West playoffs, but if Yao succumbs to his ailments, we'll have lost a great talent, and Rockets season ticket holders will have been stymied yet again.


9. Detroit Pistons
Not only is this team struggling to keep their heads above water in the East, their fan base grew tired of stale, crappy basketball last season and attendance at Pistons games sank like employment rates in Michigan during the recession. Things have gone from good to bad deplorable too quickly in disinterested and economically-challenged Motown; the once Shaft-esque front office smoothness of Joe Dumars has become as coarse as the sandpaper his balls will soon meet after the bandsaw. Drafting Darko Milicic in the deepest class ever, trading your franchise player inexplicably for a reputed selfish tyrant, signing two third-tier talents to half your team's cap space to have them come off the bench...this is not the kind of decision making that builds winning teams or keeps people their jobs. If Dumars isn't able to put the brakes on this disaster very soon, he might be thrown on the grenade, but even that should do little to prevent this entire team from being blown up if they don't improve vastly. Don't count on it happening.


8. Toronto Raptors
The other squads on this list are rolling the dice on more tangible assets like players and season ticket holders. The Raps come into this season still reeling from their franchise icon's unceremonious exit, facing the implicit task of carrying an entire country's waning basketball interest on their shoulders. Well over half of the games broadcast on Canadian cable tv feature Toronto (...can't wait for this League Pass subscription), meaning most of the basketball we're being exposed to is flimsy, uninspiring crap that's sure to only get worse after RuPaul wasn't traded at the deadline, the team crashed their 5th seed into the lottery over the final 25 games, and he inevitably left. Canadians who (relatively) have little connection to the NBA beyond this shitstorm won't forever hold interest in a team that perpetually loses too many games and All-Star talents (don't forget about T-Mac) for nothing at all. Expectations won't be very high for this team, but the pressure has to be mounting for Toronto to at least come close to meeting them.


7. New York Knicks
What was once basketball's undisputed holy ground became its laughing stock over the last ten years as the Knicks took stupidity to new heights both on and off court. Their salvation was supposed to have arrived this past summer, but endless rumors, perennial tanking, and relentless hope amounted to only marginal improvements and a sense of uncertainty. Not only is this team's range of potential success as wide as any other's in the East, the swirling rumors of Chris Paul and Melo's interest now torment a team that just spent four seasons tanking for Lebron and probably came nowhere close to getting him. If the team plays well and the Knicks can lure both, or even one of their targets, then this year will be a success...If things don't play out so well, the basketball-crazed Garden regulars and boisterous media could turn on this team quickly and be a negative catalyst to any even slight progress. They have the largest window of opportunity of all these teams, but their situation can also become the most volatile if they don't capitalize on it; they haven't done much to make up for the past decade so far.


6. Orlando Magic
It was a summer of slight setback in Orlando; one where the competition got much, much better, and the Magic struggled to stay in neutral, losing Matt Barnes and overpaying to keep JJ Redick. Vince and Rashard aren't getting any younger, Jameer's health is becoming an annual concern, and Dwight's offensive game actually regressed last year as he was frustrated by incessant fouling and forced to earn more of his points at the stripe. Especially now in the imposing shadow of their stateside rivals, things aren't so sunny in Orlando; even Stan Van Gundy's been admitting to the media that the Heat are virtually unbeatable. He might just be trying to motivate his team, but they'll be hard pressed to make it back to the Finals with this squad. Having few big names they'll be willing to or able to trade, and a bloated payroll that will brutally handicap their ability to maneuver, this team will just have to dig deep and exceed all expectation to protect their contender status and prove their coach wrong.


5. New Orleans Hornets
Now that Lebron James is no longer in Leveland, Chris Paul holds the honor of being the single most important player to his team's success in the entire NBA. That he's publicly unhappy with the state of the franchise has to be of concern to a front office in a small, challenged market. The Hornets will have a difficult time being relevant in a city that just won a Super Bowl and a country that (not to sound insensitive) is further removed from the devastation of Katrina, if Paul ends up forcing his way out. It would be easier for Shawn Kemp to get hired at Planned Parenthood than it will be for New Orleans to get equal return on CP3, so being forced into dealing the league's best point guard could be devastating. They'd better hope Trevor Ariza's really that answer nobody expects him to be and the potential of Peja's expiring deal is enticing enough for Paul Wall to stay...But who honestly believes it is?


4. San Antonio Spurs
For the first time since Tim Duncan's rookie season, (think about it, this was back when we all thought baseball players were honest athletes, had no clue who Britney Spears was, and thought the World was going to end because of a misplaced computer digit) the Spurs are a few steps removed from the title conversation. They lucked out into landing one of the best big men ever and have milked four championships out of him, but face a serious crossroads this year with their often-injured trio of stars (especially Duncan) on aging legs, their competition getting much tougher, and their roster virtually unchanged from last season. Rebuilding seems almost unfathomable and probably too drastic, but something's gonna have to give here before Timmy D's knees do. Another title's out of the question, and last year's team gave little reason to suggest a slight-shake up's a bad idea.


3. Dallas Mavericks
It's hard to fault the Mavs. They've upgraded what was already one of the best rosters in a deep Western pool and should easily win 50 games this year while being cheered on by a raucous home crowd...But beneath that sugar-coating, this Dallas team is a perennial playoff disappointment that faces an ever-shrinking window to win a title. Disco's failed more often than succeeded with assorted arrays of talent around him, and Mark Cuban's undivided attention - the catalyst that elevated this franchise from lottery doldrum to playoff staple - is clearly wandering after numerous attempts to buy other teams. Like the Spurs, they're too good of a team to be rebuilding, but their feeble playoff track record only increases their need (and unlikelihood) to outperform teams that are simply much better than them to finally get that elusive title. Another first round exit would almost certainly amount to the end of Dirk's status as a franchise player, and the tossing of this roster into the proverbial blender.


2. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets faced a tragic obstacle last year when a terrific campaign was derailed by coach George Karl's second bout with cancer, almost directly coinciding with a nose dive that ended their season far earlier than they'd hoped. With Karl's health hanging in the balance, an already delicate situation was suddenly dropped on the pavement when stories of Carmelo Anthony's imminent departure began surfacing. Denver now must placate their displeased franchise player, while trying to move him in a market that's ulikely to return equal value, working against a ticking clock that every other GM is aware of. So while the careful maneuvering continues and 'Melo plays the waiting game, the Nuggets and their fans are consumed by uncertainy, knowing only for sure that their best player wants out. For a team that's a lock for homecourt in the West at full strength, this is no way to start the season.


1. Boston Celtics
More than any other team in the NBA, the Celtics are built for the right now. Although their best player's barely grazing his prime (and to think three years ago he was a potential liability), this team's core is more susceptible to injury and age than anyone else's. Vulnerability to fatigue and fragility only heightens the urgency of this being perhaps their last shot at another title with the seniors' squad. This team went through a vicious mid-season down swing, but entered the playoffs armed with full health and their A-game, silencing critics and supposedly better teams with a defiant run to within an untimely injury and some Ron Artest (?!?!?!?!) heroics of a title. That bitter ending should only serve as motivation on what will be a very difficult road through Miami and/or LA; the Celts probably feel as though they need to redeem themselves, or at least Kevin Garnett has probably frightened them into believing it. Not that they need any extra motivation. This season could likely be the final shot at the Finals, the last chance for this crew to build their legacies and probably the last time the Celtics will be this close to contending for a while.