2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 1: The East

Ah, October.

The air is crisply cooling, the leaves are going all Bob Ross, pumpkins are being carved, pumpkin pie is being served, and everything else is pumpkin spiced. Most importantly, the struggle through baseball, golf and televised darts felt by NBA fans is on its last whimper.

After a historic offseason, we've been left with what seems like a foregone conclusion: the Warriors and Cavaliers will meet again in the Finals, with the Dubs looking unbeatable if healthy.

But between now and an inevitable ending, a very dynamic and delicate power struggle will play out among the NBA's middle tier. Venture far out of either conference's top-3 and the pecking order is very unclear. With so much player movement this summer, not only are some variables unknown, but the resulting margins slim - playoff spots should be a dogfight in both conferences.

Speaking of conferences, let's jump into a breakdown of each in Part 1 of Banter's 100% Guaranteed, Flawlessly Hypothesized NBA Preview; starting with the East:

LOTTERY LOCKS: 


15. Brooklyn Nets
As laughable as this roster is, it's still similarly talented on paper to a Simmons-less Sixers, and certainly more experienced. That said, they have far less upside and no means whatsoever to better themselves mid-season.

It's going to be a close race for the bottom between the two. If only Brooklyn had any incentive to be bad; forking over their next two first-round picks, both sure bets for the Top-5.

14. Philadelphia 76ers

The Ben Simmons injury hurts a lot. He was a Sixers rookie, so odds are it was happening, but it's a swift kick in the head to Philly's momentum. It also doesn't bode well for #TheProcess that their likely three best players are all centers.

Philly will now have to scrap either way to escape their token role as the NBA's Worst, but a seemingly inevitable trade of either Noel or Jahlil Okafor could put Philly in a better position to weather Simmons' loss and actually make sense as a basketball team.

13. Miami Heat
xThe bigger they come the harder they fall. By LeBron's count, Miami should still be defending an NBA championship; instead they find themselves unexpectedly thrust into a rebuild.

Losing both Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh signals a new era for the Heat, and knocks them down to the East basement where tanking is a very real possibility. They lack consistent scoring outside of Goran Dragic; relying on increased roles from a Josh Richardson/Hassan Whiteside/Dion Waiters/Derrick Williams quartet that cumulatively went for a whopping 35 ppg last year.

Even if Tyler Johnson lives up to his comical new contract, it's hard to see them winning any more than 30 games. Miami might be better off punting with their sights on 2017's plentiful Draft Class.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

12. Charlotte Hornets

Last season the Hornets re-discovered themselves, playing at a top-10 pace with a balanced and varied scoring attack. After losing three key cogs, Charlotte will have to lean much more heavily on Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum to put the ball in the basket.

While the defensive versatility of the Batum/Marvin Williams/Michael Kidd-Gilchrist trifecta gives the Hornets lots of options and a long presence on the perimeter, MKG's sub-par shooting will only further serve to constrict the offense, and subsidize double-teams of Walker drives.

Charlotte could potentially create headaches on D for certain small-ball lineups, but overall have lost enough scoring punch to suggest a regression back to the lottery.

11. Orlando Magic

So much nonsense going on here. Deal-happy Magic GM Rob Hennigan might be executing a thinly-veiled asset horde, but their awkward glut of big men serves to stymie both trade value and their progress as a basketball team.

So much of this bizarre experiment hinges on Aaron Gordon's transition to "small forward" (if positions still exist). While Gordon gives them a wide athletic framework within which to work, it's nearly impossible to see all of Orlando's bigs fitting into the rotation without marginalizing each other to some extent.

Rumors abound suggest that Nikola Vucevic may be on the trading block, but the market for a center who offers no rim protection and can't quite hit 3s might be dry. A forthcoming deal may help this team find an identity; as of right now it's nebulous at best.

10. Milwaukee Bucks 

Losing Khris Middleton for possibly the entire year hits the Bucks like a Ford Expedition, especially in terms of their spacing-challenged offense. Relics Jason Terry and Steve Novak might be forced into bigger roles out of pure necessity.

Milwaukee seems bent on replicating the Thunder's recently-dismantled Long Ball blueprint, and while all their limbs project as a strong defensive unit, they really couldn't afford to lose their best shooter.

The Bucks' best hopes of salvaging this season come in trading Greg Monroe, who's on a great deal and would fit better on just about any other team. They could fetch a badly-needed perimeter threat and open up the starting center spot for John Henson, one of the NBA's most comically-underused players.

9. Washington Wizards

Maxing out Bradley Beal was a gamble the Wizards had to take after completely fanning on the Kevin Durant Sweepstakes, especially in this summer's apocalyptic Free Agency market. That said, it pins a lot of resources on a player who's missed a quarter of his NBA career so far, while spending another third of it playing through or recovering from injury. At full health, Beal is a borderline All-Star, but our glimpses of it have been fleeting.

John Wall is obviously a franchise building block, but his greatest weakness - his shooting - is only exacerbated without Beal flanking him. In fact most of Washington's roster, like several other lower-rung East teams, seems bereft of en-vogue floor-spacing, unless the petulant Markieff Morris is suddenly becoming an offensive centerpiece.

8. Chicago Bulls 

A peculiar and lateral offseason for "Da Bulls". They traded Derrick Rose, presumably aware that he was ball-stopping Jimmy Butler and clogging their already-shaky spacing with his awful outside shooting.

Now with Robin Lopez as insurance for the imminently-departing Pau Gasol, the Bulls needed to get Butler some help on offense. They thus proceeded to sign not one, but two high-cost players who - maddeningly similar to Rose - will keep the ball out of Butler's hands and do little-to-nothing to space the floor.

It's unclear if this ill-advised hodgepodge of perimeter talent qualifies as a Big 3, but if so the Butler-Wade-Rondo trio is probably the most dysfunctional ever.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES: 


7. New York Knicks
The Knicks made progress this summer. There's no two ways about it; they'll be a better basketball team in 2016-17. But the pidgeon-steps they took towards contention with Melo's window dwindling are far from flattering for Phil Jackson's third offseason. Going almost-all-in on Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah is a serious gamble; the Knicks will be lucky to get a healthy season out of both, never mind their pre-injury selves.

Brandon Jennings will be a welcome addition to their scoring-bound bench, but behind him it's dental floss-thin. Meanwhile Kristaps Porzingis (he of the Latvian rap video) is the team's only significant realizable upside, and his development risks being stymied while Rose and Carmelo Anthony dominate the ball. Their ceiling seems fairly capped even at perfect health - which is far from guaranteed.

6. Atlanta Hawks  

The Hawks aren't in that bad shape for a team that lost two of its three best players over the summer, but maintaining their mid-level playoff spot will depend on several variables:

- that Dennis Schroder will make a leap from stud backup to above-average starter (possible)
- that Kent Bazemore's worth all the money they just gave him (probable)
- and that the Dwight Howard signing won't go up in flames (anyone's guess)

Howard certainly renders Atlanta more combustible than they've been since the Josh Smith era, and poses difficulties for Coach Bud's fluid offense if unwilling to seriously adjust. Paul Millsap is a beast, but there's only so much he can do to keep ATL's system together as the team around him gradually erodes.

5. Detroit Pistons 

Losing Reggie Jackson for the first month-plus of the season blows for a team that many are picking to rise to the top of the East's clusterfucked middle tier. Ish Smith is far from a bad replacement (he'll be great for Andre Drummond on the pick-n-roll), but that stretches an already-thin backcourt bench further.

Their sans-Jackson schedule isn't overly hard, but Tobias Harris is unproven as a primary scorer, and openings for 3's from KCP and Marcus Morris won't be as wide or frequent without Jackson's slashing.

But once Jackson returns, they field a fearsome starting five, well equipped for the space-and-pace offense Stan Van Gundy's so fond of. Not to mention they have Boban.

THE BRIDESMAIDS:

4. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers might've taken a step back defensively with their summer makeover, but the gains on offense - an area which has plagued Indiana for several seasons - are considerable. With a new scoring-friendly coach in the driver's seat, Indiana now has threats from every position to surround Paul George, who seemed like a one-man army at times last year.

Plus it's not like they're suddenly awful on D now. They only have leaks in a couple spots (#MontaEllis), Paul George is still a multi-positional defensive monster, and Myles Turner will become a truly elite rim protector as his IQ and positioning develop.

The net result of the Pacers' shift in philosophy may be a moot point overall. They're much deeper and more talented than last year's iteration, which is why they've returned to the East's upper tier.

3. Toronto Raptors

At first glance it seems like the Raptors had a blah offseason aside from the somewhat-likely Demar DeRozan re-up. Losing breakout Bismack Biyombo while some of their direct competition re-tooled heavily isn't a great start.

But the Jared Sullinger acquisition is large for a rotation that saw Luis Scola log heavy minutes last year. The Raptors now can time-share between two competent, multi-skilled fours without feeding Scola's corpse to opposing athletes.

The Six's summer also saw their All-Star backcourt win Olympic gold medals, an experience whose impact has translated dramatically to the NBA for a number of players. It's not irrational to expect some net positive effect after a summer of playing/training with a handful of the World's truly elite, and - more importantly - getting the best coaching Lowry or DeRozan have ever had. At the absolute least, Toronto's two most important pieces are riding a wave of confidence after inconsistent postseasons.

DeMarre Carroll missed a big chunk of last year and will certainly have a two-way impact, while any development from stashes Bruno Caboclo or Lucas Nogueira would only be icing on the cake. The East's top four will be tougher this year, but the Raps won't be helpless to defend themselves.

2. Boston Celtics

It can't be underscored how huge the Al Horford signing is for a team that hoarded assets in search of a star, then had one dropped in their lap, at their shallowest position no less. Horford would've fit well just about anywhere, but especially so in Boston, who retain their disposable youth and Rolodex of draft picks for the next move.

With lots of available talent, and now two All-Stars to beckon potential trade targets, the odds of Danny Ainge pulling the trigger on a blockbuster aren't bad, raising the Celtics' projected ceiling. But even at present they're probably the East's 2nd-best team, with depth at every position behind a sneaky-good starting lineup.

Losing alpha sixth-man Evan Turner hurts a varied roster like Boston's a lot less, especially given his price tag. Brad Stevens has an absurd knack for maximizing his talent's effectiveness, so he'll find innovative ways to replace Turner's production and continue the Celts' ascent.

HOMECOURT GOES TO:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers This just is happening. Long live JR Smith.

Stay tuned for Part 2: The West, and Part 3: The Hardware, coming soon to a smartphone screen near you...

Banter's 2015-16 NBA Preview: Part I - The East

It's that time again.

After months of baseball, tennis and televised darts, the NBA is returning in a blaze of glory. This season has the potential to be especially epic, and though I'm a die-hard fan who gets excited about anything basketball-related, we're truly blessed to be witnessing the NBA's current evolutionary epoch.

Not only is the talent in professional basketball absurdly stacked right now - a testament to the sport's exponential growth in popularity - but more refined training and conditioning have taken athleticism to new speeds and heights.

The game itself is growing rapidly as well; the advent of analytic stats, and revolutionary technology like SportVu have allowed us to understand basketball in ways never possible before, and for the game's best tacticians to use that knowledge to their advantage.

And all that talent is being put to use; front offices have undergone a rapid upgrade in overall intelligence in this era of the "NBA as a Business", and far fewer teams are lighting money on fire without coherent strategies. The result has been more fast-paced, polished, calculated, competitive team basketball. Unless you live in Philly, there's never been more to be excited about.

So with the preseason underway and Opening Night mere weeks beyond us, let's break down who's going to be doing what in the NBA this year, beginning with the East.

EAST STANDINGS: 

15- Philadelphia 76ers 
It must be awesome having Brett Brown's job. Can you plausibly imagine any scenario other than the current Sixers front office, in which the company mandate is to be shamelessly awful and you're paid millions of dollars to coach without any pressure to perform (other than, you know, not winning too many games) or job security issues? This is going on year three now guys. Your fans deserve better, and the rest of us are just getting bored.

14- Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn limped into last year's playoffs almost by default, after the rest of the contenders for the East's final spot self-destructed for various reasons down the stretch. With several of those teams making noticeable offseason upgrades, the Nets lost four rotation players and pulled in... Andrea Bargnani? While Jarrett Jack may end up being an upgrade over the flaky Deron Williams, his move to a starting role stretched the Nets' bench thin. Shane Larkin will likely see most of the backup PG minutes, and though he showed flashes last season, he's no Jack. Brook Lopez is always a few steps away from a leg injury, and Joe Johnson's legitimately graying now. It's unclear how Brooklyn will embrace their imminent rebuild with no cap space or draft picks, but no matter your squad it's gonna be a long season in Gotham (to be continued shortly).


13- Orlando Magic
How this team managed to theoretically "win" the Dwight Howard trade and still hasn't cracked the playoffs in the East is completely beyond me. They've stockpiled a nice young core of talent, but still aren't winning, mostly because they can't defend anybody. Lineups with as many defensive leaks as Orlando (especially close to the hoop) need to be historically great offensively to succeed, and the Magic, well... aren't. Team Disneyland is loaded with upside and could make a playoff push but would likely need some help from a rival injury and a big leap from one of its young guards (after Vic Oladipo's growth curve more or less flat-lined last year). Scott Skiles is a large upgrade running the show, but they've been "a couple years away" for a couple years now, and it looks very likely like a couple more.

12- Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are a weirdly interesting bunch heading into this season. They're deeper than last year, and have a reasonable ceiling, but there's quite a few yellow flags around this team - two big ones in particular. The first is obviously that they lost their best player in the offseason. Greg Monroe leaves a large scoring void, and his absence will make it easier for defenses to key on Andre Drummond. The other is the perplexing thought of Reggie Jackson and Brandon Jennings co-existing in a backcourt on any level. Stranger things have happened, but if Stan Van pulls that off without any brawls or social media feuds it'll be impressive. There's potential for things to go either way here, but I feel like south (as in vacation in April) is where Detroit's headed.

11- New York Knicks
The Knicks will be a better team this year. They upgraded several positions in the offseason, and have a healthy Carmelo Anthony (in body, though perhaps not in mind). But when you were as putrid as the Knicks were last year, only dramatic turnarounds will equate to success, and they don't appear to be there yet. New York's fans shouldn't have expected a free agency jackpot; Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo are nice lures for a franchise in the Knicks' state. Lopez instantly gives the Knicks a nice defensive presence inside after they foolishly dealt Tyson Chandler, and Afflalo can be a second or third-option type that New York's struggled to put around Melo since Amar'e Stoudemire's knees went all Ewing. And if this Porzingis kid gives them anything in year one, it's just icing on the cake.

10- Charlotte Hornets

The big brass coming out of Charlotte this summer was the pilfering of Nic Batum from the Blazers, and his apparent "bigger role" in the Hornets' offense. Coach Steve Clifford has suggested Batum as the "1st or 2nd" option on a team that already has Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. The gamble is obviously in whether Batum's ready to take on such a role; a proposition I'm fairly confident will be a losing one. Batum's an overly-passive player whose biggest faults are his lack of primacy and inability to make defenders pay for mistakes. It surely won't be as disastrous as their last swingman acquisition; at-worst he's a uniquely versatile role-player (and a huge safety net with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist done for the year). But getting your hopes up about Batum being the answer might not be a healthy idea. I'd rather put stock in better post-Lance Stephenson cohesion and a more consistent Jefferson keeping the Hornets anywhere near the playoffs.

9- Boston Celtics
The Celtics were a walking anachronism last year; a team that by all logic should've tried to make the lottery, but was too well-coached to suck as much as the rest of the East. Then they made a trade for a guy who would become their best player down the stretch, and fumbled towards a tragic game of Red Rover with Kevin Love. The David Lee trade was a nice move, but not really enough to keep up with an Eastern Conference whose playoff picture suddenly isn't so pathetic anymore. Adding Amir Johnson on a short-term deal (and a relative bargain considering what Tristan Thompson has the Cavs up against) might prove redundant. Boston is now armed with a glut of depth at the 4/5 spots, and no clear starters, though lineup creativity has never been an issue for Brad Stevens. The Celtics seem to be stockpiling assets rather than building a team; there's a good chance that Danny Ainge blows some (or all) of this up while hoarding draft picks, so the Celtics might be (wisely) headed to the lotto this year.

8- Indiana Pacers
So they lost Roy Hibbert. Whatever. He was quickly becoming a proverbial "box of chocolates" (word to Sally Field) in which two-thirds of said chocolates were the crappy jam-filled ones. David West's departure is a blow to this team's toughness, leaving a void at power forward that hopefully someone other than the returning Paul George can fill. But getting George back - and Monta Ellis to boot - is a much-needed adrenaline shot to an offense that went full Bernie Lomax for much of last season. This prediction obviously hinges on George being in good health, but all signs point to that being the case. If he's anywhere close to his old self, PG and Ellis will aptly lead what last year was an often rudderless quest to put the ball in the hoop. The question is whether the Pacers can sustain their defensive identity without Hibbert, to which the answer should be yes.

7- Toronto Raptors

I like what the Raptors did this offseason. They were a woeful defensive unit last year and took steps to shore up their D without shaking the team's core. Corey Joseph and Bismack Biyombo will be large pluses for the second unit's resistance, and DeMarre Carroll upgrades their large wing defender (Terrence Ross) from an inconsistency to a strong point that can even match with the every-trendy 'stretch four'. Carroll's issue will be his ability to integrate into an offense that last season was the polar opposite of the Hawks's swing-heavy team harmony. Kyle Lowry and Demat DeRozan are ball-dominant stars; either they or Carroll will have to adjust for him be as effective as he was in ATL. This team is still relatively young, and has upside to spare if the pieces come together. Hopefully they - and coach Dwayne Casey - learned a thing or two about focus and toughness after the pistol-whipping Washington laid on them last spring. Speaking of the Wizard Party...

6- Washington Wizards
The Wizards basically stood pat this offseason, losing Paul Pierce to the Clippers and seemingly betting that Otto Porter is ready for a starter's role. Bradley Beal will happily accept the increased looks he's sure to get as a result. While John Wall continues to propel this team, it will be a leap from Beal - one that was curiously absent in his career arc last season - to take this team a notch higher. I'm willing to treat their post-All-Star meltdown as part growing pain, part anomaly; the Wizards should be more consistent this year. That said, the middle of the East playoff bracket is noticeably better this year, and "more consistent" isn't going to lift you with the tide.

5- Milwaukee Bucks
Welcome to team "What If" of the 2015-16 Eastern Conference. They're young and somewhat tough to gauge but the pieces are all here for a potential 'team leap'. First off they addressed their pitiful scoring by injecting Greg Monroe into the pivot, who immediately becomes their go-to guy. They'll also get Jabari Parker back, who should be (at worst) a good second-unit option once he's operational. Then figure in an increased role for John Henson; perhaps the NBA's most criminally under-utilized player last season, who the Bucks recently sunk $44 million into - presumably not to ride the pine. And then there's that Antetokounmpo kid, who could very easily take another large stride this season (pun completely intended), at which point the All-Star game would be in his sights. Basically, a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Bucks to not be a significantly better team this year; place bets accordingly.

4- Atlanta Hawks
There's no question that losing DeMarre Carroll hurts the Hawks. He was about as close to a perfect role player for Atlanta's system as you could ask for. This is a strong unit though, and they shouldn't be crippled by his departure. Millsap and Horford still form one of the NBA's best frontcourts. Jeff Teague is still a borderline-elite PG. They're still a lethal team from long-range (#Korver). Dennis Schroder is ready to make a larger impact, and upgrading from Pero Antic to Tiago Splitter is massive for their bench. They'll stumble, but not far.

3- Miami Heat

As if there was any doubt that a Pat Riley team would be on the mat for too long, the Heat have bounced back with a loaded lineup that will break the East's upper tier if healthy. Miami will pair Goran Dragic and Chris Bosh for the first time, allowing Dwyane Wade to play at a far more sustainable pace. Hassan Whiteside is a defensive monster providing elite, athletic rim protection even amid the more-than-occasional headache. Luol Deng is still a two-way horse and a guy any team would love to have as a fourth option. And that's just the starting lineup. They thieved Gerald Green and Amar'e Stoudemire with veteran's minimum deals, giving their bench instant scoring and a dose of whatever Amar'e has left. They also managed to parlay their near-playoff miss into Justise Winslow, who many pundits feel will go down as the steal of the 2015 Lottery. Add a dash of Josh McRoberts back to the lineup, and this is suddenly a pretty scary rotation if Whiteside doesn't cause an extinction-level event.

2- Chicago Bulls
In the wake of Tom Thibodeau's unceremonious departure from the Windy City, plenty has been made of the physical demands on his players, and the toll it took on their health records - particularly that of one Derrick Rose. With Thibs out the door, the Bulls should be more rested if nothing else this year, which may (probably) translate to being healthier. See, the Bulls weren't really at full strength at any point last year (or any long stretch of Thibs' tenure for that matter). And at full strength this a really fucking good basketball team. Give them the continuity factor (roster is virtually unchanged) and the freedom from Thibs' iron-fisted rule, and they're likely the best of the East's bridesmaids.

1- Cleveland Cavaliers

It happened in Miami the last time around; it's surprising that it was such a big deal when it happened in Cleveland. There was an awkward feeling-out period for three go-to superstars sharing the court; these things take time. But then it clicked, and the Cavs started crushing the East, something not even Kevin Love's injury could offset. Although the back-alley standoff with Tristan Thompson is still awkwardly marring their season preparations, it's highly likely Thompson will cave and negotiate after letting the mid-level exception expire, burning his "I can bolt next summer" leverage. But even without Thompson this is the East's best team - they lost two All-Stars and almost won the title for fuck's sake, And though several rivals should be stronger, it's doubtful they'll have enough to topple the Cavs.

That's it for Part I, stay tuned for Part II (The West) and Part III (The Hardware), dropping soon...

The Show Goes On

12:15 pm; Sat, Apr 30; Banter Headquarters (my living room couch):

Roommate: What games are on tonight?

Me: (dejected)...none.

Roommate: Dammit. I was kinda planning my day around that.

Me: (increasingly dejected)...Guess we're hittin' the Palace early.

We're all gonna have to find another vice this evening. Deprived of playoff ball for the first time in two weeks, it's looking like a more standard Saturday night. A not-so-fast but definitely furious first round came to an equal parts unexpected and awesome conclusion last night, when the Memphis Grizzlies finally took down their first playoff series, likely driving the final stake into the Timmy D Spurs' coffin. While San Antonio and Orlando have a few extra weeks to stare at the drawing board they're now facing, the teams that upset them look to keep their slim title hopes alive as the curtain draws on the Second Round:

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Count me among the many who are absolutely astonished that the Hawks are still alive. I was just wrong. Wrong about The Collins Effect. Wrong about Atlanta's bench. Wrong about the Magic being the more motivated team. That being said, there's a large gap between a sketchy 4-seed that's played up and down all year, and the 1-seed who just faced a feisty open-round foe and made most of the important playoff-type adjustments in their first test. The Hawks don't match up terribly with the Bulls, but having no answer for Rose - either on D or as an opposing gun (don't give me any of that Joe Johnson bulls***) - will hurt mightily. Chicago's a much more sound defensive unit than Orlando, and if the Hawks are unable to score more than they did in Round 1, an offensive powder keg like the MVP could be enough to blow this one open.

Bulls in 5

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

This series is going to be, by far, the best of the 2nd round. For so many reasons. Not only does it figure to be the most competitive from a basketball standpoint, but it also pits Lebron against the team that ended his Cleveland era in the most depressing way possible, and wages the battle of Good vs. Evil in NBA. Everyone knows the Heat; an arrogant trio of young superstars copping out to the fast-track to the Finals. Meanwhile, Boston's stars came together to fight for an elusive title after 10+ years of loyal soldiering. They Did the Right Thing; sacrificing their own games for the team's sake, having each others' back, making those around them better, playing every playoff game like a Game 7. They're the anti-Heat, and as such, 90% of the World will be cheering for them.

Either way, this series looks to go seven. It'll be the most top-heavy team in NBA history, vs. depth and balance, swagger vs. playoff savvy, ambition vs. pride. The Celtics know their time is now; that their Big 3 are all at 100% is a slight miracle, and with Rondo clicking, they look much better than they did in March. Their obvious concern is a certain #6; the one who's no doubt revenge-hungry and a threat to keep their best scorer on his toes every possession. Pierce covered Lebron very well in '08, but since then he's just gotten older and Bron's gotten better; it will be different this time around, especially with Wade looming. Both are capable of winning games on their own, but will need to thrive in the halfcourt together to win; something they've struggled with all year. The key to this series figures to be Chris Bosh; KG is his Jason Voorhees of potential playoff matchups, and a lack of consistent production from him could tip the scales Boston's way. JO's done an admirable job of defending the rim from a wheelchair, and if he can reasonably imitate Perkins' role, the Heat's inability to crack the Celts' D, combined with a lethal dose of kiddie-pool shallowness, should finally vindicate us from the Heat Wave.

Celtics in 7

(8) Memphis Grizzlies (!!!) vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder

'Nuff respect to Memhphis. Their 2nd-best player went down and they still pulled off a historic upset against the Spurs of all teams. That's f***ing awesome. I'd love to be blissfully ignorant and realistically act like they're going to beat OKC, but I feel like they'll have to settle for winning my fandom, because the Thunder are going to work them. There were 3 keys to Memphis' upset: Gasol and Randolph wore the thin front line out; Conley broke Parker down off the dribble a lot; Memhpis' frantic, energetic defense rattled the Spurs' collected attack. All 3 of those factors play right into OKC's strengths, as Westbrook is a nightmare to beat, Ibaka/Perkins are probably the best/toughest defensive post combo in the NBA, and OKC's a young team that will beat your press and punish you in transition. This is where Gay's absence will bite them; despite being an excellent defender, Shane Battier's not long or athletic enough to stop the Durantula; look for the venom to act quickly.

Thunder in 5

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Dammit, almost thought we had it: matching Spurs and Mavs meltdowns in the first round (too much, I guess). But Dallas showed some playoff grit one time and recovered from a laughable 4th-quarter collapse to close off Portland in 6. They addressed some early flaws, not much unlike the Lakers, who appear to have re-gained some of that championship poise that's eluded them most of this season. They'll have to be hungrier than against the Hornets, as Dallas matches them much better than in previous years: they have two defensive bigs to throw at their feared front line, and a versatile swingman to contend with Odom/Artest. Meanwhile, Dirk gets to face the only 4 in the West who might be softer than him, and Jason Kidd draws his easiest defensive matchup of the postseason. Still, the Lakers, even at 90%, figure to be a tough draw. Gasol's found a perfect target to regain his offensive edge, the Lakers' bench in far more stable than Dallas', and then there's Kobe Bryant (oh yeah, him) who's DeShawn Stevenson's best series away from single-handedly ending the Mavs. (Seriously, how many times will Bryant casually isolate JJ Barea anywhere inside 25 feet before Rick Carlisle completely yanks him? I'm guessing 2nd quarter, Game 1)

Lakers in 6

"...Aaand here they come down the stretch.."

Now that the regular season marathon's drawing to a close, we can begin seriously licking our chops, knowing that the season's best basketball will soon be upon us. Every game will count as teams furiously jockey for playoff seeding (and, in more mundane cases, lottery balls), leading into an epic battle for basketball's most revered honor. March Madness needn't be mentioned (but shouldn't be forgotten) to deem the coming months as any hoops head's favorites...But let's not get ahead of ourselves here, before the title bout, there's still a couple fights left on the undercard as the quest for the postseason winds down. Here's the tale of the tape:

The Dreamers: These teams will be duking it out for the final playoff spots. The season will end in disappointment for most of them, but, with the exception of one, they should be happy just to be here.

Milwaukee Bucks - Just the fact that they're still in this conversation after losing Micheal Redd and having the League's most gloriously inefficient point guard this year is astounding. Kudos to Scott Skiles for having this muddle of youngsters play above the sum of their parts recently; mixing in John Salmons might serve up playoff appearance.

Memphis Grizzlies - Facing a tough recent schedule - as any team in the West is bound to at some point - the Grizz have slipped back towards .500, showing that although they're much better than we would've given them credit for, they might not be playoff-ready in the deep West. Their remaining schedule's relatively soft, but lottery or not, they recovered from the Iverson debacle quickly and are still on the good end of massive upside.

Houston Rockets - Losing Carl Landry hurt but picking up Kevin Martin and a couple good big men really gave this team exactly what they needed at a fair price. A go-to scorer's a much needed shot in thw arm for what's been a languid Rockets offense, and Martin's surrounded by enough potent help for his defensive deficiencies to be minimalzied. As promising as a playoff run would be, this team's really just waiting on next season, praying that a year of rest will finally get Yao Ming on a healthy track.

Miami Heat - Having once held then safest grip on their playoff seed in the L, Miami's tumbled all the way to the brink of the lottery and is no lock to make the postseason. As the losses pile up, so (inevitably) does Dwyane's frustration as he Wades in the shallow talent around him. He's capable of lifting this team to a first-round exit, but I can't help but think apathy must be setting in.

New Orleans Hornets - They've played surprsingly well without Chris Paul thanks to the recent explosion of rookies Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. It remains to be seen if this talented but inexperienced backcourt can continue this blistering pace all season, but if they can keep the Hornets in the fight long enough for CP3 to get healthy, it might be all they need.

Charlotte Bobcats - Some recent struggles against just about everyone (...except the Cavs...) have cast Charlotte back onto the East lottery scene. I still see them as the most likely of the bottom 3 (Miami and Milwaukee being the others) to squeeze into the playoffs, their recent trade having bolstered a Kate Moss-thin frontcourt. This current lineup's not far from its ceiling, but after years of sucking, mere respectability is welcome in Charlotte.

The Long-Shots: Their postseason ambitions fairly realistic, these squads are battling for a better draw in the faint hope of a first-round upset

Portland Trailblazers - Picking up Marcus Camby was huge for a team that wasn't dressing a 7-footer and starting 52 year-old Juwan Howard at center. Somehow, they weathered several violent attacks from the injury bug and stayed in the playoff chase this long. It's hard to imagine them losing their grip unless Brandon Roy decides to shut down his ailing hamstring, even harder to picture them upsetting the Lakers. That being said, if any team can be satisfied with just a playoff berth, given everything they've been through, it's these guys.

Chicago Bulls - Since their near-implosion in December, the Bulls have been playing some pretty f***ing good basketball, recently having beaten five .500+ teams in a row...on the road...in the West. Their remaining schedule won't be easy, but it's heavy on the United Center - where they're won two thirds of their games this year - and regardless of this season's outcome, they've given their fans reason to be optimistic about next year with more cap space to bait the many marquee free agents this summer.

San Antonio Spurs - Sorry, have to do it. Finally. I know it seems weird seeing San Antonio this far removed from the contender conversation this far into the season, but they've played tired, inconsistent basketball and shown nobody any reason to expect something beyond a first round dismissal. MAYBE they can pull out an upset if their entire roster's at 100%, but that'll be asking a lot. Tim Duncan's been uncannily efficient this year, but even in the postseason, where he'll playing far more than 31 minutes/game, he'll need much more help than he's had this year. The Alamo's been taken. Good riddance.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Not to slight the impressively precocious play of a team nobody asked to be ten games over .500, but the playoff-virgin core of the Zombie Sonics will have a hard time beating a team like Utah or Dallas in seven games. Durant's been unreal, Westbrook's been steadier, Harden's been steadily improving...Hard as it may be just remember they're the youngest team in the League; this is just the beginning.

Toronto Raptors - Playing to their potential for once, the Raps have responded to the preseason hype, ironically thanks in no part to a certain Turk who's been playing like he's living out his Pizza Pizza commercial on the reg. The return of Reggie Evans will be welcomed by a team that's finally embracing the foreign concepts of hustling and defensive toughness, while their two-headed point guard attack has proven potent in recent weeks. If eveything's firing for them, they're the kind of team that could scare a wounded Celtics squad that perenially lets its guard down in early rounds.

Phoenix Suns - Yeah, I dunno why they kept Amar'e either. They're several players they can't afford away from contending and will likely lose him after they're swiftly dismissed from the first round...oh well...here's hoping whatever team lands him will pull of a miracle trade for Chris Paul.

The Dark Horses: These are the underdogs; the teams that will be expected to make noise come playoff time, but will have to knock off a favorite to get a title shot.

Boston Celtics - You don't think so the way they've been playing lately? They're one of A's best teams when healthy, but they haven't been all year. If Garnett and Pierce are still hampered in April, they're screwed; even with a healthy Pierce last year, it took the best basketball of Rajon Rondo's life to get them out of the first round. I'm fully prepared for a complete Big 4 to prove me wrong, but I won't count on Glen Davis, Tony Allen and Fatigued Wallace to do it.

Atlanta Hawks - They've dominated the Celtics this year, but lackluster performances against the Cavs and Magic leave serious doubts about their ability to match up with the East's beasts. Atl definitely took a step forward this year, but it'll take another one to reach the NBA's upper echelon.

Utah Jazz - They've been the West's best team since Christmas, but this team just seems...off. Too much uncertainty enshrouds them: D-Will's questioning front office intentions, Boozer claims he wants to stay but can't be taken at his word, Millsap's being jerked like Jack Link's beef waiting for the minutes he deserves, and Andrei Kirlenko/Mehmet Okur's consistency problems will hurt them when they're playing top-tier teams every game. If they can shake it all off and give the better Lakers some heat, I'll be thoroughly impressed.

The Contenders: For these squads, anything short of a title will be a disappointment. It's not about waiting on free agents, nurturing young talent and 'building a winner'; they've built winners, now it's time to do what they do.

Orlando Magic - The Magic showed very scary glimpses of their May 2009 selves this past weekend against the Cavs. Dwight owned the paint with a nice array of moves early, and when the Cavs keyed their D on him, a floodgate of 3's rained on them from all angles, while a lane-clogging defense reduced Lebron to a streaky jumpshooter, removed from his rhythm. They're another team who's been unhealthy, with injuries plaguing their starting backcourt, but have shown a much better ability to play hurt than the older, thinner Celtics. They're as dangerous as any contender out there.

Denver Nuggets - Why not? Even with Melo and Chauncey hobbled, they've held down the second-best record in the better conference, while Kenyon Martin's enjoyed a renaissance and Ty Lawson's emerged as one of the better steals in a deep draft class. They're an improved defensive team and boast a scary offensive arsenal that few teams are equipped to outgun. At full stregnth, they're at-worst a top-three team in the West.

Cleveland Cavliers - After peeling off the season's longest winning streak with their second-best player in streets, Cleveland acquired a borderline All-Star for at worst, their backup center and at best, absolutely nothing. Jamison's incorporation into the lineup wasn't as "seamless" as Danny Ferry had predicted, but doesn't change the fact that the Cavs, who were already arguably the favorites in the East, improved a lot. They match up better against the Magic than last year, and should have no trouble with any of the East's lesser teams. Of course, the stakes are also higher in Cleveland than anywhere else, so deliverance upon their postseason expectations is vital.

Dallas Mavericks - They might end up coming out the winners of the trade deadline deals; they got EXACTLY what they needed in Haywood and Butler; tough defense, low-block competency, and a more versatile offensive attack. They looked to be firing on all cylinders in the 2nd half against LA, toppling the champs without Caron in a serious statement game. What was already a playoff dark horse now could be a bonafide threat to the throne.

...Which leaves us with the reigning champs, who still have to be called The Favorites; even with Kobe taking his longest injury leave in years, the Lakers maintained their steady cushion on the West's top spot. Aside from the Cavs, they've repeatedly beaten tough opponents and rarely shown the type of champion's complacency that could plague a team this talented. Although there's been recent dissent about Mr. Bryant's itchy trigger finger, but it'll tkae much more than that to disturb the Zen Garden long enough to knock the Lakers off their title course. Believe they'll be playing their best ball in May and, most likely, June; it'll be tough for anyone else to match.

POWER RANKINGS!!

We're rounding the corner on the NBA season; this month should truly separate the pretenders from the contenders as the Trade Deadline leads into the regular season's final month. Before the madness, let's see where everyone sits in this month's Power Rankings:

30 (30) New Jersey Nets
What's there to be said that hasn't been already? Seriously, nothing.

29 (29) Minnesota Timberwolves
Luckily for the L-Wolves, New Jersey's been stealing the spotlight from their wayward season with their unrivaled awfulness. The constant trade talk surrounding their best player isn't entirely unfounded; this team needs a serious identity check.

28 (27) Detroit Pistons
At this point I'm willing to give them "Disappointment of the Year" status. They're too talented a team in too weak a conference to be routinely losing by double digits and shuffling through lineups like old socks. At least that $100 mil they threw at BG and Charlie V's looking like money well spent...

27 (28) Golden State Warriors
The struggles continue for the most erratic team in the Association; Monta Ellis is doing everything he can but this team's way undersized, way too useless on D and, dare I say, in need of a coaching change. Don Nelson's a historically frustrated coach in the twilight of his career and likely lacking the patience to deal with the massive re-building effort the Warriors need to undertake.

26 (22) Sacramento Kings
Down goes Tyreke, and likewise, the Kings. Even with Kevin Martin back in form, it's becoming clear that Evans is a much more dynamic presence in the backcourt and is vital to Sac-Town's success. There's little to salvage of the season at this point, but having nabbed (arguably) the best prospect in the draft can't hurt going forward.

25 (26) Washington Wizards
Now that the dust has settled from Gilbertgate, the Wizards can hopefully shift their priorities back to basketball and the impending trade deadline. Of course any moves they make will be clouded by the possibilty of Arenas' contract being voided, but their mangled roster needs some adjustments and with the Wiz at rock bottom, now seems like a great time to blow this mess up.

24 (24) Indiana Pacers
Chugging along in irrelevant obscurity, the Pacers contiue to betray the hopes of their basketball-crazy state by playing an uninspired, lazy game that has them destined for another lottery gamble. Still fighting to regain their standing after the Malice at the Palace fallout, at least they've finally learned to stay away from wanted felons, gang-rapes and high-speed shootouts.

23 (25) Philadelphia 76ers
Samuel Dalembert's been making headlines lately; obviously touched by the tragedy in his homeland, the Hatian-born center's been co-ordinating League-wide charity efforts while delivering inspired performances on the court. If only the same could be said for the rest of his team, who've been getting more ink in trade rumors than win columns.

22 (23) New York Knicks
Luckily they had the T-Wolves in town the day after Dallas bitch-slapped them by 50 at home; the worst loss in MSG history. Inconsistency's been the name of the game for a Knicks team that was one of the hottest teams around in December, but has dropped 7 of its last 10 to fall well outside the playoff chase. David Lee's been your buddy's couch: shamelessly slept on.

21 (21) Milwaukee Bucks
Michael Redd's career is in serious jeopardy, which doesn't bode well for a Bucks team that looks completely screwed without him. Brandon Jennings' shooting woes continue as this team aimlessly searches for a scoring punch. Suffice to say Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute aren't frightening too many people.

20 (19) Los Angeles Clippers
Hopefully they don't have an Oden on their hands, but the other franchise with a terrible track record of drafting big men will have to wait until next season for Blake Griffin to be a factor. Meanwhile, LA fans are surely crying foul about Chris Kaman's All-Star snub, which is setting the tone well for what's shaping up to be another crappy season for the Empty Clips.

19 (17) New Orleans Hornets
Things were looking up in New Orleans; not only did the Saints survive a scare to make the Super Bowl, but the Hornets were playing well and pushing back towards the playoffs...then Chris Paul went down for at least a month and sent their season straight down the toilet.

18 (11) Houston Rockets
The Rockets, once the surprise of the West, have fallen off more than a bit. Their last six games came against the Spurs, Bulls, Hawks, Nuggets, Suns and Blazers, but with Miami as their only playoff opponent in the next seven, now seems like an ideal time to make up for lost ground in the playoff chase.

17 (14) Miami Heat
This shallow squad once had as firm a grip as it could've on the 5th seed, and has tumbled all the way down to 8th thanks to some lackluster efforts from everyone on the team not wearing #3. Wade may have once wanted to finish his career in South Beach, but you have to wonder if his mind hasn't drifted elsewhere over several disappointing seasons.

16 (20) Chicago Bulls
Looking more like a legit playoff team with each passing week, DaBulls celebrated Derrick Rose's first All-Star nod with a 5-game winning streak, leaving San Antonio, Phoenix and OKC as casualties.

15 (18) Charlotte Bobcats
It seems a safe bet at this point that they'll pop their playoff cherry in April. Chalk up another franchise turnaround for Larry Brown, which means it's only a matter of a year or two before he gets bored and deserts them.

14 (12) Oklahoma City Thunder
The rest of the West is catching up these youngsters and their playoff ambitions, but they've shown an ability to contend with tough competition, so there's no reason to assume they won't win some needed games and push themselves into the postseason...Especially not with Kevin Durant being absolutely unguardable.

13 (16) Memphis Grizzlies
It seems kinda strange seeing them this high, but with a 7-3 surge over their last ten, the Grizzlies leave me with no choice. Zach Randolph's been a beast, Marc Gasol's making a serious charge for MIP, and aleeged trade bait Rudy Gay couldn't be helping his own cause much more with a series of high-scoring exploits en route to Memphis W's.

12 (15) Toronto Raptors
It seems kinda strange seeing them this high, but with a 7-3 surge over their last ten, the Raptors leave me with no choice. Even with Hedo Turkoglu being relatively useless, the Raps have been winning through improved defense and a more balanced attack between the uptempo physicality of Jarrett Jack and the passive efficiency of Jose Calderon. Chris Bosh continues to impress and tempt opposing GMs, and Bryan Colangelo continues to insist that he won't trade him. Time will tell which of these forces prevails; hopefully it won't be too late for the Raptors to salvage their franchise player.

11 (6) Phoenix Suns
Playing away from home against tougher competition, the Suns have looked like a shell of the team that jumped to a West-best start and had Steve Nash atop MVP discussions back in November. Now it looks like Amar'e's finally getting shipped and this team might have to hit up the 'ol drawing board. Advice for Steve Kerr: look ahead a couple of years before the next time you give a 36-year old near-max dollars; Nash surely doesn'y want to spend the twilight of his career mired in a re-building effort.

10 (3) Boston Celtics
Sound the alarm. Even with KG back, the Celts have dropped 7 of 10 and look to be having trouble closing out tight games. They outplayed the Lakers for 9/10ths of their painful home loss on Sunday, and took similar Ls to the Magic and Hawks last week (the latter having swept the season series). This is the wrong time to have the wheels start falling off.

9 (10) Portland Trailblazers
It's a miracle that they're still here after all the injuries they've weathered, but the current rotation looks to be doing the job, and the trade deadline could yield another big body to shore up their front line. Their steady ascent to Western Supremacy took a hit, but how they've responded can't be anything but inspiring to Oregon basketball fans.

8 (8) San Antonio Spurs
Losing Tony Parker (and subsequently a Sunday showdown with the Melo-less Nuggets) can't help a team that, outside of Tim Duncan's awesomeness, is struggling to live up to expectations. Calling them a playoff team is safe, but anything beyond that's a serious stretch for a squad that had the whole A on edge preseason.

7 (13) Utah Jazz
Finally playing to their potential, the Jazz have shot up to the 4th seed in the West behind brilliant play from Deron Williams. His partner in crime, Carlos Boozer, is looking all the more expendable with Paul Millsap producing well in extended minutes, which introduces a new dilemma: stay the course and cut costs?...Or give the playoffs a shot with one the League's most thorough rosters?

6 (5) Dallas Mavericks
Getting dusted by the Raptors must've hurt because the ensuing 50-point pummeling of New York might be the W of the year, and saw the Mavs show more determination than at any point this year. Still, Dallas' perimeter continues to fuel its success, and legitimate contention might rest on a deadline deal.

5 (9) Atlanta Hawks
I hated on the Hawks last month, and they responded by sweeping the season series with the Celtics and briefly usurping the Magic for the Southeast lead. They certainly look more comfortable than the Celtics right now, and arguably should've had 3 All-Stars. No longer 'safely 4th in the East', I've been forced to eat my words.

4 (7) Orlando Magic
They took the division lead back and now look to regain their health as they try to fend off the Hawks. There's no doubting that they're talented enough to make another Finals run, but there have been more bumps in the road to a return than anyone would've anticipated.



3 (4) Denver Nuggets
Even without Melo, they've been stepping up and winning big games thanks to the steady hand of Chauncey Billups and an increased scoring punch from Kenyon Martin. They're still a ways away from fucking with the Lakers, but the bridesmaid's gown in the West never looked so good on them.



2 (1) Los Angeles Lakers
They've been playing a lot of close games, albeit winning most of them, but the Lakeshow seems to have lost some of that championship swagger that carried them through the early part of the season. Only a serious skeptic is doubting their status as favorites to repeat, but they're not the best team in the NBA right now.


1 (2) Cleveland Cavaliers
I'm stoked as a Cavs fan. My squad's here not as a matter of personal bias, but because they're unquestionaly the class of the Association right now. They've won both meetings with the Lakers this year, and continue dusting the opposition even as Mo Williams nurses a separated shoulder. "Separate" might as well be the Cavs' word of the month, as it's also what they've been doing relative to the rest of the East, and what Lebron's been doing vs. his one-time MVP competition.