The 2017 Halftime Awards

With every NBA team now across the season's midway point, it's time to check up on this year's
awards races at a key interval.

2017 brings an interesting mix of awards debates: some highly-contested, others non-existent. We're going to break them down in order from most to least obvious, which conveniently builds quite climatically:

(stats as of Jan 23)

ROOKIE OF THE HALF: JOEL EMBIID, PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Total cakewalk here. Not only is Embiid a transcendent rookie who's putting up eye-popping stats despite a minutes restriction and breathing life into The Process, he's facing a draft class as weak as any in recent memory.

Stuck on just 25 minutes a night, Embiid's per-36 numbers look made-up for a rookie: 28/11/3, 1 steal & 3.5 blocks. If he qualified, he'd lead the NBA in block% by a mile, and be 5th in defensive BPM.

Even on a short leash, he's been invaluable to the Sixers, who are suddenly 7-3 in their last 10 games, and maybe not even the second-worst team in their conference. Let's pray Embiid stays healthy; his is the case of something beyond potential; it's a promise.

Regards To: Malcolm Brogdon...Pascal Siakam? Dario Saric? God this year's rookie class stinks so far. (For the record, it would take a season-ending injury tomorrow, and ensuing PED scandal for Embiid to lose here)

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS
This pick is also pretty obvious, but for underlying reasons. On the surface, Antetokounmpo's popcorn stats have all risen dramatically as he's made himself a league-wide storyline. However, adjusted vs last season's post-All-Star numbers (when he made the shift to point guard), his only large leap is in scoring.

But delve a little deeper, and you'll see his key advanced stats have increased noticeably across the board, skyrocketing in PER and both offensive and defensive BPM. His usage rate is up huge, but his turnover % has decreased; an impressive correlation, especially given how much he controls the ball in a spacing-deficient offense.

Giannis also chalks up bonus points in three areas:
- making an immediate leap into the NBA's upper-tier and MVP discussion; leapfrogging what's supposed to be the most difficult step as a player

- improving his play to elite levels in so many areas simultaneously

- doing so for a team that's more competitive than anyone thought, and succeeding largely due to his huge strides (pun completely intended).

Add it all up and we're in the midst of cataclysmic Greek Freak breakout that NBA heads have been bracing for. And the kid's still only 22; the best is yet to come.

Regards To: Myles Turner, Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker

SIXTH MAN OF THE HALF: ERIC GORDON, HOUSTON ROCKETS
There's a lot going right in Houston this year. Gordon is a huge part of it; an elite sniper who, while having regressed from his days as a stalwart defender, is still capable of bodying an array of opposing wings.

Gordon's been neck-and-neck with Lou Williams (who bolted out to an early lead in this race) as a bench assassin this year, only more efficiently, fueling the second unit of one of the NBA's best offenses ever.

It's Houston's surprise success that also allows Gordon to overcome the fact that Williams outranks him in a lot of advanced metrics. Those numbers a lot more hollow on a floundering team of youngsters - Gordon's getting his for the NBA's token overperformers, giving him an edge in the first race in which there should be much debate.

Regards To: Lou Williams, Enes Kanter, Patty Mills

COACH OF THE HALF: GREGG POPOVICH, SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Mike D'Antoni is the trendy pick here, with the Rockets shocking the NBA at 3rd in the West. This isn't to slight D'Antoni; he's done an amazing job, but been gifted with a situation tailor-made for his system.

The pieces all fit perfectly for him: from the front office's score-first mandate, to James Harden's awesomeness, a bevy of elite shooters, and emerging pick-n-roll potential. D'Antoni teams always over-perform in the regular season anyway, and while this is a regular season award, I can't help but feel like we're inflating Houston's stock just a bit.

Meanwhile, Popovich is steering the Spurs on a 65-win pace, having to revamp their identity on the fly with Tim Duncan gone, Tony Parker looking ancient, two old-school big men starting, all kinds of new rotation adjustments, and a serious downgrade in overall defensive talent. It's a dramatic transition, only one that appears seamless because Popovich is so fucking good at his job.

There's a lingering sentiment among some of the NBA's voting community that Popovich should win this award every year by default. Some years another contender does something impressive that can't be ignored, but this year that guy is Pop himself .

Regards To: Mike D'Antoni, Dave Fizdale, Brad Stevens

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE HALF: DRAYMOND GREEN, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
There's a serious bout for DPOY this year, and Kawhi Leonard isn't even really involved: Two-time runner up Draymond Green is squaring off against human fly-swatter Rudy Gobert. While the two dominate in generally different ways - Green by stopping anything he faces anywhere in its tracks, Gobert as an impenetrable fortress around the hoop - the tale of the tape leaves very little between them.

Both are absolutely crushing defensive stats this year: Gobert leads in blocks, defensive win shares and defensive rating . Draymond leads in defensive BPM, is right behind The Stifle Tower in D rating and D win shares, and sits third in steals as one of only two players in the Top-20 of both steals and blocks (Greek Freak being the other).

The teams they lead are even neck-and-neck in most defensive metrics, adjusting for Golden State's much greater pace. The Dubs and Jazz sit 1-2 in opponent FG%, points per shot, and overall defensive rating.

Ultimately though, this award should be Green's as of now. He's been the usual multi-faceted monster on D, doing an elite bit of everything for Golden State, while enabling them to unleash a new brand of Death Lineup and survive without Andrew Bogut. It's acceptably stated that his contributions have never meant more to their success, and have addressed a serious question mark for the Warriors going into this season.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul

Before we conclude the proceedings, a brief detour in honor of the first half's All-NBA recipients:

ALL-ROOKIE
FIRST TEAM
G-Joel Embiid, G-Joel Embiid, F-Joel Embiid, F-Joel Embiid, C- Joel Embiid

SECOND TEAM
G-Malcolm Brogdon, G-Andrew Harrison, F-Dario Saric, F-Pascal Siakam, C-Joel Embiid

ALL-DEFENSE
FIRST TEAM
G-Chris Paul, G-Tony Allen, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Rudy Gobert

SECOND TEAM
G-Patrick Beverley, G-Thabo Sefolosha, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Anthony Davis, C-DeAndre Jordan

ALL NBA
FIRST TEAM
G-Russell Westbrook, G-James Harden, F-Kevin Durant, F-LeBron James, C-Anthony Davis

SECOND TEAM
G-Chris Paul, G-Kyle Lowry, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Marc Gasol

THIRD TEAM 
G-Stephen Curry, G-John Wall, F-Jimmy Butler, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, C-DeMarcus Cousins

...which leads us to...

MVP: RUSSELL WESTBROOK, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Lastly by both design and coincidence, we have the MVP; a clusterfuck of compelling narratives if ever one existed. On the fringe, there are big men with absurd stats on awful teams (Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins), pint-sized point machines (Kyle Lowry, Isaiah Thomas), a guy who's steadily ascended the league's heirarchy (Jimmy Butler), an annual contender who refuses to regress (pre-injury Chris Paul), the NBA's quietest storm (Kawhi Leonard) - and its loudest (Draymond Green), a grizzly bear (Marc Gasol), a guy who defies explanation (Giannis Antetokounmpo), and two former MVPs doing what they've always done (LeBron James & Kevin Durant).

At the center are James Harden and Russell Westbrook, whose seasons are stretching the superlative stratosphere. Deciding between these two in any regard is like pulling teeth with rusty pliers; either is a worthy winner, and for maybe the first time in my life I could accept either choice without a single debate.

Harden's been an unparalleled offensive catalyst this season. Accounting for Houston's record pace of 3-point bombs, The Beard's producing a ridiculous 56ppg in pts+assts, while both the eye test and metrics suggest his once-comical defense is improving quickly. Patrick Beverley is the only Rocket with a better defensive BPM, and Harden actually sits 15th league-wide in defensive win shares, if you believe that.

Houston being wayyy the surprise of the NBA so far only fuels his candidacy, and while it's a legitimate narrative, it's been written by many pens. As alluded to in my COY pick, the Rockets' success has been a perfect storm of variables that have slid together seamlessly; it's entirely possible (read: somewhat likely) that Harden is benefiting as much from D'Antoni's system and the players around him as vice versa. His performance is especially inspiring after a sub-par 2015-16 run, but a comeback should really hold no weight here.

If we're talking pure value, Russell Westbrook is putting up one of the most epic seasons in NBA history. His narrative is as compelling as they come: a superstar spurned in a controversial exodus, who stayed loyal to a franchise he potentially saved in the process. After Durant's departure, few could have blamed Westbrook for wanting out of OKC, but he's kept them competitive, given them hope amid desolation, and is literally doing everything for them. He's the ultimate eye test player; he never stops competing.

You want stats? Westbrook is the league's leading scorer, and on pace to shatter the all-time record for usage rate. He also leads the league in BPM (by a mile), PER and VORP, three of the main pillars of advanced metrics. Even Harden's defensive strides loom in the shadow of Russ' 4.5  DBPM, second in the entire league. That's all without even mentioning the obvious (though it's worth re-stating) that he's on pace record the NBA's 2nd triple-double average ever, and first in 55 years.

And while Harden's blissfully cruised through this season in an absolutely ideal situation, Westbrook's spent time in relative trenches, grinding out a slew of tough wins with a young roster that, while showing potential, is maligned and completely fucked without him. He doesn't get to benefit from a tailor-made offense, or perfectly complementary talent, he's just too good to be stopped anyway - both on the court in the MVP race right now.

Regards To: James Harden, Kevin Durant, LeBron James

Enjoy the second half - Banter's All-Star benches are coming soon!

Team First - The Spurs Win Again

Last year's NBA Finals Review was one of the most difficult pieces I've ever written.


Difficult, not only in what it attempted to do - attribute merit and blame to a series that was far too close for either to hold much weight - but through the chilling afterglow felt by anyone who enjoys watching basketball. It was hard enough to come to terms with just what had happened, let alone admit it was over, or try to make reason out of it.

This year is a little different. There was no seven-game marathon, no high-stakes game of Adjustment Tag between Erik Spoelstra and Gregg Popovich, no violent swings that made us re-think who was favored about 200 times, and certainly nothing even remotely approaching the excitement of Game 6. This year it was simple: The better team won, and it wasn't even close.


These Finals were appropriately emblematic of the NBA's dominant trend this year: the immense divide in overall quality between the East and West. Miami looked poised coming into this series, playing confident two-way ball and getting the level out of Dwyane Wade that was glaringly absent this time last year. What too many people dismissed, perhaps myself included, was how little resistance Miami had; the Bobcats with their best player injured, the SNBA All-Stars, and finally a team that made the East Finals despite a several-month-long meltdown.

It was a different story out West; San Antonio faced a tougher foe in the first round than Miami had all postseason, and while the head-start Serge Ibaka's injury gave them in Round 3 helped swing their win, there was no questioning the Spurs were a machine. A finely-tuned, horsepower-loaded beast on high-octane, low-viscosity fuel; its parts worked seamlessly (that word gets overused in sports writing, but in this case it's almost an understatement).


The Spurs' execution on offense - all season really, but especially amid the pressure, emotion, strain, and competitiveness of the Finals - was as close to flawless team basketball as we've seen in today's NBA. 100 years from now, this game tape could be used to teach kids how to play the 'right way'. This was Gregg Popovich's 9th Symphony, his Flu Game, his The Chronic; his masterpiece.

The culmination of The System's evolution couldn't have been timed better. Not only did the Spurs get sweet revenge after last year's - as Phil Jackson put best - 'mind-numbing loss', but dealt us a brutally visceral reminder in this age of 'Big 3s' they inadvertently helped breed, that this is still a team game. Miami's stars took what many see as shortcuts to their places in history, and were ironically denied the all-important three-peat by a well-rounded roster that was everything people hated the Heat for lacking.

Lacking is more or less the word that describes Miami's whiff of a Finals. Everyone who doesn't wear #6 on their team came up short far more often than they could afford against the Spurs. "Follow my lead" LeBron famously said before Game 5. He led, but the whole "follow" part got screwed up a bit.

The simplest way to break this series down from the Heat's perspective is that when James channeled God Mode and took over completely in a way no other player alive can (sorry, KD) - as he did in the first six minutes last night and the second half of Game 2 - they could compete. Those brief runs of truly unique dominance were the only times Miami led in this series, and the only stretches where the Spurs didn't seem in complete control.

The rest of their team's performance was an insult to LeBron's all-around brilliance. Dwyane Wade was unacceptably bad after saving himself most of the year for this stretch run. Chris Bosh faded in and out of an offensive rhythm, and wasn't attacking the way a player of his caliber can and should. Super Mario played like someone spiked his mushroom with quaaludes. The team was at standstills on offense, missing open looks when they seldom came, and failing to rotate on D with the quickness and precision that in theory made them so dangerous against the Spurs.

Regardless of how flat Miami was, part of the credit - or maybe most of it - still lies with San Antonio, who executed so f***ing well, exploiting every single opening the Heat gave them. Gregg Popovich dismissed their Team Fire outburst in the first half of Game 3 as an anomaly, but for a team that also just set a Finals FG% record - against one of the NBA's 'best defenses', 'outlier' seems like a better word. That 71-point, 78% half was no accident.

Defensively, the Spurs did a great job of walling LeBron off from the key; helping immediately from the wing when he got near the paint, and forcing the ensuing open shooter to beat them from distance. It was a "lesser of two evils" gamble; a simple tactic Pop didn't have to adjust much because Miami failed to make them pay time and time again.

The Spurs played so demoralizingly well through the entire series, you could see it on the Heat's faces; even they didn't think they could win. When they summoned the will to engage Rampage Mode, it was a solo effort from LeBron, both too little and too late.

Last night's triumph was a poignant torch-passing for San Antonio. Their veteran stars led the way to one more title, but Kawhi Leonard - for the second straight year - took his game to new heights, using the Finals as a showcase for his elite-ceiling talent. Kawhi is an absolute killer; a clearly under-utilized potential superstar whose humility and unselfishness fits almost too well in The System. Most nights, he'll play completely within the team, deferring, sometimes to their detriment, as if he's not confident of his own obvious ability. When he feels empowered, and is attacking like he knows he's that good, he's one of the NBA's best players, which is why he's our Finals MVP, a mere three games after his lack of impact became one of the series' biggest subplots.


Leonard will become more of a focal point going forward for San Antonio - the leap many figured he'd make this year was difficult within such a balanced team system, but will only be harder to hold back after the display he just put on. The once-storied trade that sent George Hill to Indiana for Leonard's draft rights has become yet another savvy pillage by Pop and RC Buford; securing and developing another humble, dynamic star to lead them when Tim Duncan retires. Ironically at the same age Duncan won his first Finals MVP, in what could be Timmy's NBA finale, Kawhi was the re-birth. The team's in good - not to mention freakishly big - hands.

Of course this outcome weaves narratives of offseason uncertainty for both franchises; for the Spurs whether Duncan and/or Pop will return, and for the Heat whether anybody will. The only certainty for Miami is that Norris Cole and Birdman will be back, and Shane Battier won't (A side nod to Battier on a great career that deserved a better ending that this collapse; he was a living embodiment of every positive intangible cliché - "great locker room guy", "makes others better", "does the little things", "plays smart" - and is one of the most well-spoken and intuitive pro athletes ever. He'll be an instant hit on ESPN's NCAA coverage next year).

Trying to figure out what's next for Miami is a futile attempt to both read the minds of their "Big 3" (a term I use with strong hesitance after this series), and predict what Pat Riley may have up his sleeve. A whole bunch of things could unravel. Among them: LeBron could toss Bosh and Wade some of that Beats residual under the table send a message with a big pay cut; the kind Timmy D took (making less than half of what he was eligible for last year) that enabled San Antonio to keep this team together. Duncan has significantly scaled back his salary since signing an extension in 2007 for well below (>20%) the max. That deal was worth $20million/year; this year he made about half that. He's led by example for Manu and Tony Parker to follow the same lead, and directly enabled the Spurs' continued success.

The Heat have been schooled again, just as they were by the Mavs in 2011. This time the lesson was in sustainability, with the blueprint laid out by a team whose stars' unselfishness allowed them to keep contending as they aged. I know it was only four years ago that Miami's triumvirate of talent seemed almost unfair, but Wade - who was once both indestructible and unflappable - just blew his second straight finals, Chris Bosh is still forced out-of-position a lot and is variably dangerous, even LeBron finally showed signs of mortality this year, as his surroundings grew increasingly Cleveland-like.

This team's getting no younger, and their easiest means of returning to the throne is by following the example San Antonio just served them. All three of Miami's players can and should take pay cuts; because LeBron has more money than his great-grandchildren's extorting ex-wives could spend, the thought of Wade or Bosh making anywhere near $20 million next year gives me headaches, and it would be the best move for all three of their legacies going forward. Whether they want to heed The System's sage advice is up to them.

As for the Spurs, it's hard to see why anyone would want to leave this organization; especially someone who was as rejuvenated for this series as Duncan. He could easily play another year at this pace, but his fifth ring - the one he endured the longest wait for - would be the perfect way to ride out. As he sat at the podium last night, a proud dad with his kids on Father's Day, having accomplished virtually everything a basketball player could in his career, one could hardly blame him for walking away.

But this isn't about what's next for San Antonio yet; it's about the now. Congrats to the NBA Champion Spurs; no one deserved it more. 

They Meet Again...

The Irresistible Force Paradox is a complex philosophical query that seeks to address what happens when a so-called "unstoppable force" encounters an immovable object. Countless hours have no doubt been wasted pondering this hypothetical showdown - its origins date back to ancient China and Greece - but the NBA Finals are about to provide a very thorough case study.

The Miami Heat are by all definitions an unstoppable force; a trio of All-NBAers who, in their primes, banded together in an unprecedented attempt at historic glory. Regardless of our opinions about how competitive or legitimate their decisions were, they've delivered on massive expectations, making four straight Finals runs, gunning for a third Larry O.

Then there's the Spurs, the good 'ol San Antonio Spurs, who have been as close to an immovable object as exists in pro sports over the better part of the last two decades. Year after year, they somehow stiff-arm Father Time and throw together a deep Playoff run, this one culminating in a chance for revenge:

The 2013 Finals were, needless to say, an epic. Seven games of haymaker exchanges between two teams battling for legacy implications far beyond just one season's title. This year, the stakes have somehow been raised; a three-peat for Miami, and the Spurs looking to overcome arguably the most painful loss in Finals history.

Pretty safely said, no two other teams wanted to be here as badly.

While a few things have changed, the tale of the tape reads somewhat similar to last year (duh). These are two incredibly versatile lineups; comfortable in variety of tempos, and able to adjust rotations on the fly. San Antonio holds slight-to-significant edges in offensive execution, pace control, and depth, while Miami has the quickness and athleticism to selectively dominate both sides of the ball. Not to mention potentially the two best players in this series.

Dwyane Wade's performance will be critical, and all signs point to the significant rest he got all season paying off down the stretch. He was dominant vs. Indiana, looking like his 25-year old self, and not last June's hobbled mess whom the Heat prevailed almost in spite of. They're a different team when Wade's playing energetic ball, attacking off the bounce and keeping control of his defensive assignments. It not only takes pressure off LeBron, and gets them in transition together more, but opens up so many more options for everyone from Mario Chalmers to Udonis Haslem in the halfcourt, which will be another key to this series.

While Miami's Big 3 will all need to bring their A-Games, the same isn't as applicable for the Spurs, who boast the deepest and most role-suited rotation the NBA's seen in some time. San Antonio's deep enough that they can still win games in which Parker, Ginobili and Duncan are overshadowed, if guys like Boris Diaw and Kawhi Leonard are playing like All-Stars. Miami can't hope to win the bench/supporting cast battle, but the ability of guys like Chalmers, Norris Cole, and especially Birdman to neutralize the Spurs' depth advantage could decide this series.

Mr. Andersen might be counted on to play a bigger role (pun intended) with San Antonio likely to force Miami's hand with large lineups that disrupt their small-ball approach and feast on paint scoring absent an athletic protector (see; Western Conference Finals, Games 1, 2). Popovich knows that not only will he be exploiting Miami's lack of interior protection, but disabling them from playing the kind of Bosh/Lewis frontcourt that took Indiana's slower bigs and worse rotations out of the game. In this regard it's all about which team can strike the first blow, establish a rhythm, and force the other to adjust, an advantage neither seem inclined to concede right now.

Miami's dismantling of Indiana in Game 6 had as much to do with the Heat's great play as it did the Pacers' collective bowel movement on the American Airlines Arena floor. As a team, they're sharp and focused; LeBron is LeBron, Wade looks better than he has in two years, Bosh is as dangerous a third option as exists, and their bench - for all the talk of how they lost Mike Miller and fanned on free agency last summer - has been consistently strong through multiple permutations. It took two fluke games from the Pacers to avoid a sweep (Game 1's miracle where they got their most coherent team effort in months and everyone freaked out like the Apocalypse was coming, and Game 5 where LeBron was in serious foul trouble, which sounds weird just saying). The East wasn't exactly tough this season, but Miami was very close to a single-loss rampage to the Finals; they're playing more stable and confident heading in than they were this time last year.

The Spurs have been their own form of consistent juggernaut, only they've been doing it all season, and in a much tougher Conference. Their ability to dominate with a variety of lineups and threats was as much an asset as it was an impressive result; everyone's been kept fresh and can capably contribute depending on what Pop decides he needs. Even with Tony Parker's hamstring ailing, they've been firing on pretty much all cylinders, not only outplaying the Thunder, but doing it with about as many different lineups as could exist in one series.

While the Spurs' Big 3 still undoubtedly lead this team, it's becoming far less about them, and never moreso than this year. Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw have not only been hired guns offensively, but will be looked upon to repeat last year's stellar coverage on LeBron. Patty Mills will space the floor, tire Miami's defenders and no doubt sting them with a few three-balls, while Cory Joseph will play a big part if the Heat begin torching the perimeter themselves. There's no need to remind everyone what Danny Green can do in the Finals when he's ignored, and Marco Belinelli is just as liable. Tiago Splitter's been a stud, Aron Baynes is one of the best backups bigs around, and even The Red Mamba can make a cameo start in a small-ball set. That's this year's Spurs: you can get it from anyone, they don't care who it is.

As evidenced last year, this type of pass-heavy, balanced team play, while crippling against just about any team, isn't as much of an edge vs Miami, who play passing lanes notoriously well, rotate quickly, and often feature lineups without a single minus defender on the floor. They're kind of like a phalanx around the perimeter, they must be penetrated to be truly damaged. Unfortunately for them, Parker is a nightmare getting into the paint off the dribble (when he's at or near full strength), and the Spurs boast the NBA's best corps of big men, both in terms of passing and moving without the ball.

San Antonio can hurt Miami in a variety of ways; while their preferred style and tempo can play into the Heat's hands at times, they're definitely versatile enough to create other edges, which is the Spurs' greatest advantage in this series.They not only have more options in terms of dictating matchups and forcing adjustments, but Gregg Fucking Popovich deploying the troops. All apologies to Erik Spoelstra, who's proven his worth as NBA coach in about the hardest way possible, but he's the definite underdog of the Bench Boss Battle.

On the other hand, he has LeBron James, which really just speaks for itself. The guy's the most complete player in the history of basketball; one who despite having been a beast this entire postseason, has seemed almost slightly reserved by his standards, as if he's saving his best for when he knows it's needed. Playoff LeBron absolutely has another gear, which has to terrify any Spurs fan.

Trying to decide this series is pretty much impossible as is; these teams possess very unique and distinct advantages over each other, that they're both liable to apply in a high-stakes war of adjustment. Last year, they were so closely matched that it spanned seven gruesome games, the result leaving both thirstier for victory this time around. It's the unstoppable force clashing with the immovable object; there's logic behind both choices.

In this case though, the immovable object seems like the safer choice. The Spurs have been a 'rock' all season, playing devastating basketball through numerous injuries; Tony Parker's nebulous condition - while an obvious issue - is much less a concern for them than any other roster. The margins between these two teams are so close that we're almost certainly in for another seven-game bout, and counting on the Spurs to lose again - after coming so close last year and coming back as a better team - is asking too much.

Enjoy what has the makings of another legendary Finals. SPURS IN 7.

A Tale of Four Cities

So here we are, down to the NBA's version of the Final Four, left with the quartet of squads that figured to be here, both in terms of seeding, and most season-long projections.

What's unfortunate is that the heavyweight bouts we'd all hoped for might not go down according to plan, as the Thunder once again find themselves with a crippling injury at the worst of times, and the Pacers seemingly swoon in and out of coherent basketball by the quarter.

Trying to figure out these Pacers right now is a losing proposition; they've been the most mercurial top seed in recent memory (last year's Heat being the possible exception) and have had their collective chain rattled by inferior teams too often, both in the Playoffs and 2014 in general. Place your bets and hope for the best.

Paul George has been taken out of games entirely for stretches and utterly dominated others. Roy Hibbert's putting up donuts one night, and dancing all over the Wizards' once-feared front line the next. Lance Stephenson is, well, being Lance Stephenson, and their bench is all over the map; with CJ Watson as a beacon of consistency, and Luis Scola mostly in Walking Dead Mode.

Of course, Indiana matches up very well with the Heat, and have given them problems ever since Miami's Big 3 came together. The George/Hibbert combo is likely the best means on Earth of containing LeBron James, while The Pacers aren't exactly uncomfortable with Miami's style of play. That said, it's all contingent on which version of them will show up from night to night, when the Heat are playing at a much higher level more consistently.

At their best, Indiana could take this series to seven games easily, but when was the last time you saw them play anywhere near their best for anywhere near that long a stretch? January maybe? That they've survived this long is a slight miracle and testament to just how thin the East was this year. And keep in mind, they're facing the two-time champs, who are looking at the Pacers like wounded prey right now; they'll be far more of a test than a maligned Hawks roster or an inexperienced Wizards team could hope to be nightly.

The only thing these current Pacers really have going for them heading into this series is that they didn't cough the ball up much against Washington, but Miami's pestering defense will likely force plenty more turnovers (unleashing their lethal transition game) and be far less prone to the lapses that so often produced Pacers buckets in the East Semis.

One off game could be enough to blow this series for Bird's Boys, and at their current pace, they're likely due for at least two. As much as Miami has brought the best out of them - especially Hibbert - it's just too much to trust that the Pacers, right now, will be able to compete on their level consistently. They're certainly capable of proving me wrong, but the past few months suggest it's not going to happen. HEAT in 5. 

Meanwhile in the West, the potential for an epic clash may have been thwarted by the bummer announcement that Serge Ibaka's done for the season; a huge blow to OKC's title chase for the second straight year. Just when the refs had gifted-wrapped a series for them they'd started to get back to their winning style, they're dealt a potentially-crippling blow against an opponent that just took a semi-dangerous team like Portland and completely toyed with them.

Any kind of big injury is potentially a huge issue for Scott Brooks, who isn't exactly a genius with lineup adjustments, and is going to struggle to replace Power Serge against the Spurs' deep and diverse bench. Nick Collison is definitely one of the NBA's better backup bigs - a smart, deceptively athletic two-way player who's likely among the league's Top 5 best-passing big men - but he's nowhere near the interior protector Ibaka is. That will be apparent when Duncan's dissecting in the high post and Tony Parker (hamstring-pending) slices into the paint at will. We're likely to see heavy doses of the Collison/Steven Adams combo, which could be worse defensively, but the two of them together aren't even close to the athletic, floor-spacing threat Ibaka is on offense.

There might finally be somewhere near enough shots for both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who are going to have to play out of their minds if the Thunder are to stand a chance. Good looks will be somewhat harder to come by with more attention on them defensively, which requires their optimal efficiency. This will probably mean deferring to KD in the clutch, which Russ has been infuriatingly hesitant to do. It's really not that complicated, Westbrook's one of the best scorers in the NBA today, Durant's one of the best scorers ever. The MVP is an absolute killer down the stretch of close games, the Spurs are infinitely less likely to make the kind of mistakes L.A. did. The margins will be slimmer, so the Thunder will have to grind every edge carefully, meaning the offense has to go through KD in tight spots. 

San Antonio just looked great in the second round, an amazingly thorough roster, with an answer for seemingly any matchup. They can deceptively mold into their surroundings, patiently forcing mistakes and delivering fatal blows. They're part chameleon, part Komodo dragon.

Their single biggest threat is that they don't have just one; it can come from literally anywhere. The Big Three are constantly liable for game-changing performances, and Sugar K Leonard has once again become his borderline-dominant Playoff self. Their supporting cast is probably deeper than any team since the Bad Boys went back-to-back, and stunningly consistent. Leonard will pose a particularly large hurdle to Durant, who, while far from being "Inconsistent", certainly let Tony Allen and Chris Paul take him out of games for stretches his team can't afford against the Spurs.

Again, I feel slightly cheated. This could easily have been a seven-game thriller with OKC at full strength and Popovich unleashing the product of his most calculated (and impressive) Playoff Resting Campaign ever. But with the Thunder already slim underdogs, and now missing Ibaka, it's tough to see them taking more than two games from The System. SPURS in 6. 

Top 9s: Thoughts on the Finals

Whoa.

That was an NBA Finals.

A heavily-contested seven-game exchange of haymakers between two iconic juggernauts.

Not only a title, but legacies were on the line, and it played out beautifully.

While a few of the series' games didn't need a second half, and Miami spent most of it mired in inconsistency, it was the adjustment-fueled unpredictability of this matchup, and its ability to deliver a dramatic turn of events at every crucial juncture, that made it so compelling. It went kind of like this on a basketball court (with Dwyane Wade playing the role of Joffrey as he ridiculously nicknames his new sword "Heart-Eater").

I'm still trying to wrap my head around Game 6. I've spent countless hours watching basketball, and can't confidently say I've ever seen a more crucially thrilling 4th quarter, one that will probably go down as the most definitive moment in LeBron James' legacy. He'd spent most of the game playing passively; pulling up for jumpers when he was ice cold and displaying a similar lack of touch when he seldom got to the hoop. Then the 4th came, as if it were pre-ordained by Erik Spoelstra telling Doris Burke "We need our best defensive quarter of the season". They got it, erasing a 10-point deficit with LeBron not only putting up several massive plays on D but - ironically stripped of his hairline-guard - channeling Ether Mode out of nowhere, scoring at will, saving his team's season and altering history. 

Without that performance, the Heat's season (and when I say "Heat", I basically mean LeBron) becomes a footnoted failure along the NBA annals; their boisterous and flamboyant union of superstars in South Beach would ultimately be looked upon as a bust of style over substance and hype over hoops. James boldly re-wrote what seemed to be another off-chapter in his career; he solidified the next level in an already Top-10 All-Time career, and swiftly changed the popular offseason discussion from "When will he just get it consistently in the Finals?" to "He might go down as the best basketball player ever". That LeBron came out guns blazing from beyond the arc in Game 7 (I was waiting for him to turn around and shrug as he jogged downcourt) was a fitting cap to a memorable Playoff run in which he solidified himself as, if nothing else, the most dynamically dominant player in NBA history.

It would be ignorant not to tip a hat to the Spurs (although it's definitely possible that the backup point guard of the Houston Rockets was the biggest contributor to their Playoff run). Every year they continue to defy father time and popular opinion, and were a transcendent, historic takeover by an unstoppable player away from a 5th Pop/Duncan title over 14 years. That's fucking impressive. Way may not have even seen the last of them yet, but how San Antonio manages to continue performing at this level is one of sports' greatest complex marvels.

There's plenty more to be said about this series, I could go on for days. To spare my fingers - and your tolerance for my rantings -  I'll keep it to nine things that stood out to me (other than LeBron) in these Finals, a Championship Edition of the Top 9s:

9. Manu's Officially Fallen Off

The guy who was the easy bet as the first Spurs' star to slow down indeed has confirmed early indications that San Antonio's "Big 3" are now a busted tripod. Game 5 was a renaissance to his glory days, but it came almost as a shock (if such a thing was possible in this series) and was evidently a flash in the pan, as Ginobili returned to inconsistent, selective scoring over the last two games, while turning the ball over like bed sheets in a Vegas hotel. Kawhi Leonard is  unquestionably now the Spurs' third-best player (more on that in a moment) and Popovich/Buford should give serious thought to how much they can invest long-term in the Free Agent who performed so inconsistently down the stretch of the postseason. At 35, with a total of 18 pro seasons under his belt, it's a virtual certainty he won't be getting better. 

8.Javie the Hutt

NBA officiating is an extremely difficult, high-pressure job with massive implications; one that isn't made any easier when the context of fouls - the most common call in the game - can often change almost nightly. The inconsistency in officiating's been an issue plaguing the Playoffs annually, as warped calls distort the game's context and affect outcomes (like Ginobili's potentially series-altering no-call at the end of Game 6). 

Luckily a very smart individual at ESPN decided to toss the recently-retired Steve Javie a headset and let him help bridge the gap between reality and that strange alternate universe officials occasionally drift off into where only superstars shoot free throws, and a player grimacing excitedly after a big dunk can get him T'd up. Javie's well-spoken, impartial and offers not only an experienced perspective on the difficulties of the job that can lead to blown calls, but serves as a sort of watchdog against officials who might get over-zealous and try to take over games with the whistle. At least on national TV. 

7. Erik Spoelstra "clicking buttons"

As an addicted dedicated online poker player, I've gradually become immersed in a vast lexicon of strange vernacular. One of the more self-explanatory terms - "clicking buttons" - refers to a player who's just randomly splashing around without any sort of consistent strategy, waywardly tapping  his mouse and keyboard, making wild bet sizes with junk hands as though he's excited just to see what will happen.

This seemed to be Spo's M.O. throughout most of the series, as Popovich continually out-coached him and he responded by frantically throwing different lineups at San Antonio in an almost trial-and-error fashion, before finally arriving at the Game 6 4th-Quarter set that spaced the floor ideally for LeBron and was quick enough to rotate against the Spurs' passing.

He failed to develop a scheme to contain Danny Green for five games (if it happens for one game, it's probably the players' fault, if it happens for five it's definitely the coach's), randomly went small with Mike Miller instead of Shane Battier, took too long to realize the Birdman just wasn't flying against Timmy D, before benching him and then re-inserting him in a panic for Game 6 only to have basically the same thing happen.  Miami won this series almost in spite of him as Pop exploited the sideline matchup in ways Spo couldn't counter.

6. Dwyane Wade might be my least favorite player in the NBA

When the Heat assembled this trio, Wade was the squeaky-clean one; the GQ-rated, ring-having King of South Beach, who'd "brought them together" and hadn't left a city/country of pissed off fans behind him. Times have certainly changed; LeBron's stolen the keys to the team and city from Wade, who's developed a troubling pattern of arrogant, annoying behavior while oscillating between past and future versions of his basketball ability.

He whines constantly to the refs, probably more than any other NBA player. He makes dumb public statements, like he should be paid for the Olympics. He plays with an irritating sense of entitlement that isn't his anymore; a common ball-stopper who launches predictable, out-of-sync mid-long range jumpers as though they're his bread 'n butter, and when he plays like crap, he deflects it on LeBron or screams at his coach. 

Dressing as obnoxiously as he often chooses to while attempting to give himself an equally dumb and narcissistic nickname as a promotional tie-in for his new shoe deal don't make him any more likeable, nor does the fact that he dates a woman who's hypnotized any man (and probably more than a few women) who's seen movies on BET.

What's most disappointing about Wade is that he generally behaves with about 20% of the poise, maturity and charisma that he had before James and Bosh showed up, like he's regressed to an immature child that needs to show off for his friends. A guy who was once respected league-wide has become a pretentious crybaby while his consistency continues to slip. And his team played better without him when it mattered most. 

5. Kawhi Leonard is really, really good

While Ginobili and Wade represented the fading legends of these Finals, Leonard used the series as his launching pad from "Alpha Role-Player" to "Probable All-Star", teaming with Boris Diaw to confound LeBron for large stretches, while scoring in a variety of ways, and both passing and rebounding extremely well for a player his size.

A recent Grantland article chronicled the Leonard/George Hill swap as both were playing a crucial role for teams in the Conference Finals and it appeared to be a mutually beneficial move. The added layer was that Indiana had almost traded for Hill the previous season, but backed out to keep their draft pick and use it on some guy named Paul George who just reeked of NBA potential. Having George developing on the wing made it easier for Indiana to part with Leonard's rights, allowing the Spurs to acquire a player whose career ceiling - after these Finals - doesn't look much different from PG's lofty potential.

Everything about him impresses me; not only the variety of ways in which he can impact a game, but how he keeps a constant even-keel. He always stays cool and plays within himself, accepting whatever is asked of him by his team and performing with the poise of a veteran. At 21. It seems remarkable, but then you remember that these are the Spurs, that the words "character guys" and "draft steals" are the core of their franchise, and it becomes perfectly standard. 

4. Like a Bosh

Bosh's Finals performance - much like Wade's - was a generally disappointing inability to get himself going consistently. He put up a donut in Game 7 (yeah, he didn't score at all) missing easy jumpers and drawing the ire of Miami's fickle crowd after they had to watch Tim Duncan just completely sodomize him for 36 minutes of Game 6. But in between those two disasters, he delivered on three plays - two blocks and an offensive rebound - that respectively indirectly and very directly, saved Miami's season.

As simple and amusing as it is to poke fun at a guy who makes himself such a target consistently, I kind of feel for Bosh, as he's had to make massive sacrifices for this team. Not only did he slide from a first to third option in joining the Heat, but eventually was asked to step outside his comfort zone and position, basically playing a pseudo-center to help keep the floor spaced with shooters, the lane open for James and Wade, and as many runners on the floor as possible for the Heat's suffocating, uptempo play. The result has sometimes often left Bosh in compromising positions on defense and the offensive glass against larger, longer, more physical players, not helping his reputation around the league as somewhat of a, well, a bitch. While Bosh is hated on and joked about, he still plays a vital role on this team; one that now has "not one..." but two titles, so he's not getting it all wrong.

Case in point were his uncharacteristic blocks of the Spurs' attempts to steal back a game he kept alive with his team's Playoff life flat-lining. Bosh had every reason not to own that moment - he'd been getting worked all game, played awful for most of the series, and was never particularly known as a strong defender or mentally fortuitous competitor. But he, against most odds, still managed to come up with unexpected contributions at the most vital of times. So for now, he should hold his head high and be happy. For once. At least until something like this happens.

3.The Legend of Danny Green

Danny Green's unconscious 3-point explosion over the first five games was a perfect storm of applicable catalysts. A very good shooter was often the last focus on D, and not only moved impeccably well on cuts to create space for himself, but happened to play on a team where the "extra pass" was a given.

What he did to Miami was spellbinding, not only in the obvious impressiveness of his record-shredding run, but the Heat's complete and utter inability to just stay at home against him, and eliminate a looming liability. Spo was tossing so much help in the paint against Duncan/Parker that Green could just break across a baseline underneath all the action and emerge on the other side with 10 feet of openness.

All it really took was the simple rationalization that "We've left this guy open and he's been their

leading scorer so far. He can't really create for himself or others off the dribble, so maybe if we just   acknowledge how he's burnt us so far and stop leaving him on the wing, he won't be as effective".

The results spoke for themselves. Green failed to develop any kind of consistent rhythm, settling for mostly-contested jumpers and looking like a small child lost at the mall whenever he put the ball on the floor. He shot a combined 2-19 over the Final two games while scoring fewer total points than he had in any lone Finals contest. Miami won both those games. Obviously the former didn't completely cause the latter, but it was certainly a massive contribution, and an obvious adjustment that came late - almost too late - for Miami. 

2. Effort vs. Execution
The simplest way of breaking down these Finals is that they were a war of constant adjustment with both teams putting each other in precarious positions - San Antonio by playing near-flawless basketball for large chunks of this series, and Miami by working their edge in athleticism when it was most critical.

I use the words "most critical" very carefully because through a lot of this season, particularly the Playoffs, it seemed as though Miami needed to be backed into a corner in order to truly play their best basketball. They often seemed almost arrogantly nonchalant in their lack of investment; everyone watching knew this team had a higher gear. To their credit though, they shifted into that gear consistently when they had to, and though their season had to be threatened several times, the brilliance with which the Heat played under the chaos of urgency, time and time again, was unreal.

As simple as it is to say the more talented team won, it would be a fallacy. Miami's Big 3 united and all played championship basketball for exactly one game of this series. Both Wade and Bosh were below 100% as they struggled to take the heat off LeBron (pun completely intended). What kept them going were King James, and a rotating cast of supporting players being thrown through Spoelstra's Finals Lineup Randomizer Machine, and each came up big at times.

And when it came down to it, Miami was able take enough hits and not only stay on their feet, but summon the will to take it to the next level against a team that gave them every reason to think they couldn't win.

1. The End of the Era

Lost amid the excitement of the Finals was that this would be David Stern's last trophy presentation. The legendary commissioner has grown the NBA's popularity immeasurably since taking over in 1984, re-engineered pro basketball into a marketable, exciting product. There couldn't have been a more fitting farewell for him than this ratings-smash of a seven-game, superstar-filled, thrillingly media-hyping series.

When Stern took over as commish, the NBA Finals were shown on tape delay as a more-than-slightly-racist American public was having trouble buying into a league of coked-out mostly-black athletes who brawled constantly and played for stats and contracts over wins and championships. Today - as he not-so-subtly pointed out before handing over the trophy that will one day bear his name - the Finals are watched by many millions in countries around the World. Much can be said of his tactics, but it's largely because of Michael Jordan David Stern that his beautiful game has grown and flourished, to be appreciated by so many globally; its dynamic popularity a reflection of its true entertainment value.

And so Stern rides off into the sunset (well, he doesn't officially retire until next February, but it has to be assumed Adam Silver will begin sliding into his new role) his run capped by an epic blockbuster he can proudly look upon as having fostered through decades of hard work. As basketball fans, we should be thankful for Stern. And for these Finals. It was one of the best ever, and a privilege to watch. 

Media Day: A Tribute to Gregg Popovich

Being a card-carrying NBA media member would be a pretty cool job.

Having not only a behind-the-scenes look at all the action, but the ability to interact with players and staff, and get the scoop on everything from a critical late-game play to who lost the most gambling on the last team flight, is a pretty enviable way to cut a check for a lot of people reading this (not to mention the one writing it).

Of course with every job comes drawbacks, and if you're a reporter who covers the San Antonio Spurs or any team they happen to be playing (let's just say you're Gary George of the Inland Valley News ), then your job will, by default, expose you to the wrath of Gregg Popovich.

Pop's always been a firm believer that dumb questions require like answers, and unfortunately for any press member trying to pick his brain, he finds just about every morsel of quote-bait thrown his way insulting to his immensely superior intellect. He trolls hapless questions from sideline reporters (see below) as they try to awkwardly force conversation mid-game, and when he looms above from the podium afterwards - particularly following a loss - there's sure to be dismissive responses rained upon those below.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       


Popovich's post-game pressers are as entertaining a sideshow as exists in the NBA. Almost routinely, queries of varying dubiousness are brushed off with glib sarcasm and requests for better questions, as reporters seemingly walk on eggshells to avoid displeasing him. While this might give Texas-area beat writers nightmares, it's an added layer of humor for NBA fans, and a refreshing contrast to typical "in the box" media interaction.

Pop's as much of a multi-facted threat on the podium as Tim Duncan is in the post; not only will he pull no punches as he unloads as much (or little) of his true thoughts on any topic, but he delivers them with an astonishingly blunt matter-of-factness that comes across as equal parts condescending, mystified, and unintentionally hilarious. He'll spend several minutes demolishing hopeful suitors in dry monotone, and just when you think he's an emotionless asshole, he'll drop a quick one-liner and flash a quick smile that lightens the entire mood and makes one reporter's week.

You could call Popovich's brash response to a mandatory aspect of his job arrogance, and you'd probably be right. But the simple truth is that he probably deserves to be. The consistent excellence that the Spurs have performed with during his tenure is a testament to just how well he understands all aspects of successful basketball. Sure, San Antonio got lucky landing Timmy D (and lucky as in not only fluking a bad season due to an Admiral injury, but then defying the odds in the lottery, and doing both in the same year one of the most can't-miss prospects ever is atop the draft board), but every move made since by Popovich and running-mate RC Buford has been an intelligent, carefully-measured maneuver to get the most out of Duncan's career, and the fact that they're vying for a fifth title in 14 years - never having missed the Playoffs - speaks for itself.

Every evolution of this Spurs quasi-dynasty has been shrewdly-cobbled through ridiculous Draft steals (Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, apparently Kawhi Leonard), and a solid mix of athletic youth and veteran role-players, acquired only if their skills and mentality fit the Spurs' system and allowed them to operate more seamlessly and consistently than any team in professional sports. The man keeping everything flowing smoothly together clearly gets basketball on a level higher than we do, and he doesn't have time for our stupid fucking questions.

Sure it might not be nice, but it's often really funny. So unless we're the ones on the other side of his mic, it's a show worth enjoying.

2013 Finals Preview: Are the Heat Hot Enough?

In 2007, a then-Cavalier named LeBron James dragged a pitiful Cleveland roster through a shallow East Playoff bracket, as its lone star, to his first Finals; a showdown with the San Antonio Spurs. What ensued was a swift, abrupt lesson in team execution as the Spurs swept the Cavs in demoralizing fashion. LeBron would never return to the Finals with Cleveland, a team he ultimately deemed wasn't to his standards.

Fast-forward six years, several MVPs, one Decision, a one-way ticket to South Beach, and two Finals appearances later, LeBron is suddenly getting those "Cleveland" feelings again, his brilliance being contrasted by disappointing play from those around him. Despite this, he finds himself back in the Finals, and sure as the sky's blue and the dirt brown, waiting there for him again are the Spurs. Some things change, some things stay the same.

One such thing; David Stern consistently dodging disaster. Rumblings of referee incompetence were forcing a Game 7 that could potentially commit a Red Wedding-style massacre on his final Finals' ratings as commissioner, but the Heat stung a decisive win against the superstar-less, small-market Pacers, moving on to battle the Spurs in a matchup that's really about more than this season's title.

For Miami, it's a validation of what they've constructed. This season's team was Small-Ball at its apex;  a pressure-filled flurry of transition alley-oops and multiple-pass diversion plays that epitomized the NBA's emerging skill-over-size trend. A win in this series would bolster their 27-game win streak and last year's title; it would put them among some of the truly memorable teams on a historic level. This is important for Miami because the Decision-fueled hype of Summer 2010 set the bar on an unprecedented level for this team, and anything short of historic resonance will be seen as a failure of not only what they put together, but how.

For the Spurs, it's a chance to resonate on an even greater level. They've spent the last 14 years, in the face of the largest fanbase of on-the-low hatred in professional sports, quietly, methodically, arguably becoming the greatest dynasty in the modern era of professional sports. A fifth title in as many Finals appearances over such a stretch with the same coach/superstar combo would be an unprecedented feat in any league, and would further pad Tim Duncan's already Top 10 All-Time resume.

For the NBA it's a very marketable, star-filled clash of Old vs New School; one with two evenly-matched, highly-skilled and well-coached two-way teams who both present several matchup issues for each other, and can not only dictate but adapt well to a game's change in tempo. In other words: this series is guaranteed not to be a flop (we've seen enough flopping in these Playoffs), and has the potential to be truly memorable.

This Finals obviously has to start with LeBron James, the reigning MVP/Finals MVP/possible Transformer who can dominate games in more ways than any player perhaps ever. He'll be the focal point of this series, both on the court and in the social mediasphere, and his team's chances appear to hinge heavily on his ability to maintain what I call "Ether Mode". The good news for him is that he's just defeated a team that between Paul George's dynamic coverage and Roy Hibbert's "Verticality" was ideally equipped to defend him. The bad news is that the Spurs are capable of not only suffocating defense, but thrive on half-court offensive efficiency that would've easily buried the Miami team that showed itself for most of the Pacers series; one that will not only challenge their team D much more, but be far less willing to cough up the ball for the transition buckets the Heat thrive on. So LeBron's isn't in for a cakewalk, as he'll have to not only excel on offense consistently, but potentially cover several defensive mismatches .

If Miami can take something away from the fact that a one-way team with an absolutely pitiful bench just dragged them to a seventh game, it's that they faced real adversity and a sense of urgency for the first time all season and overcame it. Not only were Bosh and Wade just awful, but drawing the ire of LeBron, who took public pot shots at his teammates as the Heat's chemistry - which as had been schizophrenic prior to this season - appeared to be coming undone. The response to the threat of elimination was an immediate return to their winning style - exploiting and attacking Indiana instead of falling into their halfcourt tempo - and an emphatic win that righted their momentum. Which is good for them because they'll need it; The Spurs are playing extremely well as a team, and are more rested than Gregg Popovich ever could've plotted for at this point in the season.

Tony Parker's most recent performance was a filleting of an NBA All-D 2nd-Teamer, so Miami has to be immediately concerned about how to contain him. Mario Chalmers is long on the perimeter, but kind of slow. Norris Cole is quick and energetic, but not an incredible fundamental defender. Dwyane Wade is a phenomenal defender on his best day, but today (or at least most of the past two weeks) is far from that day.
Parker's ability to pick apart Miami off the dribble will highlight both strengths and weaknesses of their team D. Miami has very little rim protection, and if Parker is able to get to the hole at will, he'll make life difficult for them by forcing a defensive collapse on the paint - that San Antonio is all-too-well known for picking apart with crafty passing and the infamous Corner Three. To the Heat's credit, they're perfectly-built to play that kind of high-movement, switch-heavy scheme on D, and will ensure more resistance than Memphis did.

The ability of their post tandem to handle Tim Duncan also has to be a huge concern after Chris Bosh played like one of those flamingo lawn ornaments for most of the East Finals. Timmy D's not only going to be fresh, but exploit every single edge Miami gives him; their coverage will have to be multi-faceted. He's enough of a scoring threat to warrant double-teams, especially against the Heat's front line, but an equally dangerous passer both within and out of the post. Again, this primarily attacks a fundamental weakness of Miami's, but they're well-equipped to defend the secondary by doubling down on Duncan and rotating quickly enough to cover open shooters/passing lanes. Interior passing will be a serious issue for them however; Tiago Splitter tore the Grizzlies apart when Gasol sat and the Arthur/Randolph combo couldn't hold water against Duncan's dual threat, and Miami's similar (only perpetual) lack of size could leave them more exposed against a team whose bigs both pass and finish extremely well close to the hoop (In fact, don't be entirely surprised if LeBron ends up covering Duncan for some stretches if he's got fouls to give).

Manu Ginobili will be the Finals' obvious Wild Card; while he's been a hobbled shadow of himself as the Playoffs have wore on, the week+ off will have given him a chance to recharge and bring a new level of energy and pressure to the Heat perimeter. Miami's periodic offensive dysfunction in the East Finals went largely unpunished when Indiana's bench was struggling to pass to the right team, let alone put the ball in the basket. Manu at his best is a one-man firing squad who can ignite a second unit by himself and is savvy enough to create hoops for any teammate, and his potential highlights another issue for Miami: Depth.

San Antonio can wear teams down by out-manning them, going the whole way down their bench with players tailor-fit to specific roles and matchups. Conversely, Miami's bench reads like a gradually-declining list of the same skill sets, each player not only becoming more ineffective, but cobweb-ridden during their playoff run. Joel Anthony is a prime example of a player who might see extended minutes (to stop the bleeding Duncan's likely to inflict), but will force the Heat out of their comfort zone and into a 4 on 5 offense.

So what does Miami have going for them?

First off, Chris Bosh should be in a slightly more comfortable state, and the same can be said for Dwyane Wade. Both were pitted against larger, more physical defenders against Indy, and Bosh in particular drew the brunt of Hibbert's abuse in the low post, and the hit his ego took obviously permeated into his confidence on offense as he struggled consistently (which sort of explains why he was so happy when he finally managed to hit a shot in Game 7, as seen to the right). While Duncan's obviously far more skilled than Hibbert, he's also primarily a finesse player, one who caters to Bosh a bit more. Indiana took Christopher so far out of his comfort zone on one end that he couldn't establish it on the other, and the result was some of Miami's worst ball of the season.

Wade was likewise ineffective, appearing a step slow and out-of-sync with James, partly due to Indiana's League-best defense, as well as a (relative) rift between the BFFs, with the two taking not-so-indirect shots at each other through the media. Game 7's win was surely enough to squash whatever was going on there. Ever since the 2nd-half turnaround in Game 4 of last year's Indiana series - the one where Wade and James were human portrayals of the CPU that just won't let you win in Madden or 2K - their occasionally mercurial on-court synergy has usually been at (or near) its best when most needed, as though they know they have a gear above everyone else and confidently engage it. These Finals will require it consistently.

While the Spurs have a depth advantage, Miami certainly has the talent and athleticism to force their hand with it. Their frenetic play on both sides of the ball can wear teams down and rack up fouls, which will be a very dramatic shift from the pace Memphis just allowed San Antonio to get so comfortable in. They'll be forced to chase a lot more on D, battle for plenty more defensive boards, and be giving up an athleticism edge at almost every position, which mandates hard work regardless of how small Miami is. While the Spurs have the deeper bench, Miami's supporting cast has the higher ceiling, and if guys like Chalmers and Battier are able to get into consistent rhythms and make defensive impacts, San Antonio could be in trouble.

Having the most complete player in NBA history (let's just kill this "Potential G.O.A.T" talk and call him what he is) leading your team is obviously a significant advantage; a guy who can not only win a game by himself, but can do it in several ways simultaneously. Kawhi Leonard will spend the most time covering LeBron, but despite being an excellent defender, is ill-equipped to contain James on his own - a trait he shares with all humans. The Spurs' front line lacks that "lane-clogger" (think Roy Hibbert or Tyson Chandler) that's been so fatal to LeBron's penetration, which means he'll be much more comfortable going to the hoop off the dribble - which is by far when he's most dangerous. Send too many players towards a basket-bound King James, and Miami has enough spot-up shooters to rain threes all day; it's pick your poison (though the way they've shot it at times through these Playoffs, Pop might be able to swallow the latter). There's also his defensive presence; he could cover Duncan or Parker if needed, and won't be tested nearly as often by Leonard as the George/West combo, leaving him more in free-safety mode than the Spurs would like, especially against their pick-and-roll.

Miami will also have homecourt, which is massive for a team in a closely-matched series who plays as well at home as the Heat do. While South Beach residents have never been accused of being the most knowledgeable, dedicated, or enthusiastic NBA fans around, something has to be said for Miami's league-best record at the Triple-A, especially in Wade's case (what, like you wouldn't play with more confidence if you'd slept with Gabrielle Union the night before). The first two at home will be important tone-setters for a team that just came off a challenging series that shook its momentum severely; their ability to get back into their comfortable pace and push the Spurs will likely decide the outcome of this series.

San Antonio has plenty of intangibles playing to their edge, but the painful truth for them is that their ideal style of play caters too well to what Miami thrives in. The Spurs love to shoot 3s; Miami defends them extremely well. They love to abuse teams on the pick-and-roll, Miami has LeBron James. They love to bury defenses in the paint with Parker/Duncan help and move the ball several times for open shots, which Miami is probably better equipped to counter than any team in the NBA. On the other side of things, the Spurs don't have the size or all-around athletic toughness to bully the Heat like Indiana did; Miami did just get dragged to the edge of elimination, but again, by a team that's ideally built to defend them, and the only one to go all 7 rounds with them over their 3-peat as East Champs. What San Antonio also doesn't have - more to their demise - is LeBron James; a better player than in 2007, with a better team and a sharper killer instinct, which in this close of a matchup should be enough to keep Miami on the throne this season. Some things change, some things stay the same. Heat in 7.