Wednesday, January 25, 2017

The 2017 Halftime Awards

With every NBA team now across the season's midway point, it's time to check up on this year's
awards races at a key interval.

2017 brings an interesting mix of awards debates: some highly-contested, others non-existent. We're going to break them down in order from most to least obvious, which conveniently builds quite climatically:

(stats as of Jan 23)

ROOKIE OF THE HALF: JOEL EMBIID, PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Total cakewalk here. Not only is Embiid a transcendent rookie who's putting up eye-popping stats despite a minutes restriction and breathing life into The Process, he's facing a draft class as weak as any in recent memory.

Stuck on just 25 minutes a night, Embiid's per-36 numbers look made-up for a rookie: 28/11/3, 1 steal & 3.5 blocks. If he qualified, he'd lead the NBA in block% by a mile, and be 5th in defensive BPM.

Even on a short leash, he's been invaluable to the Sixers, who are suddenly 7-3 in their last 10 games, and maybe not even the second-worst team in their conference. Let's pray Embiid stays healthy; his is the case of something beyond potential; it's a promise.

Regards To: Malcolm Brogdon...Pascal Siakam? Dario Saric? God this year's rookie class stinks so far. (For the record, it would take a season-ending injury tomorrow, and ensuing PED scandal for Embiid to lose here)

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS
This pick is also pretty obvious, but for underlying reasons. On the surface, Antetokounmpo's popcorn stats have all risen dramatically as he's made himself a league-wide storyline. However, adjusted vs last season's post-All-Star numbers (when he made the shift to point guard), his only large leap is in scoring.

But delve a little deeper, and you'll see his key advanced stats have increased noticeably across the board, skyrocketing in PER and both offensive and defensive BPM. His usage rate is up huge, but his turnover % has decreased; an impressive correlation, especially given how much he controls the ball in a spacing-deficient offense.

Giannis also chalks up bonus points in three areas:
- making an immediate leap into the NBA's upper-tier and MVP discussion; leapfrogging what's supposed to be the most difficult step as a player

- improving his play to elite levels in so many areas simultaneously

- doing so for a team that's more competitive than anyone thought, and succeeding largely due to his huge strides (pun completely intended).

Add it all up and we're in the midst of cataclysmic Greek Freak breakout that NBA heads have been bracing for. And the kid's still only 22; the best is yet to come.

Regards To: Myles Turner, Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker

SIXTH MAN OF THE HALF: ERIC GORDON, HOUSTON ROCKETS
There's a lot going right in Houston this year. Gordon is a huge part of it; an elite sniper who, while having regressed from his days as a stalwart defender, is still capable of bodying an array of opposing wings.

Gordon's been neck-and-neck with Lou Williams (who bolted out to an early lead in this race) as a bench assassin this year, only more efficiently, fueling the second unit of one of the NBA's best offenses ever.

It's Houston's surprise success that also allows Gordon to overcome the fact that Williams outranks him in a lot of advanced metrics. Those numbers a lot more hollow on a floundering team of youngsters - Gordon's getting his for the NBA's token overperformers, giving him an edge in the first race in which there should be much debate.

Regards To: Lou Williams, Enes Kanter, Patty Mills


COACH OF THE HALF: GREGG POPOVICH, SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Mike D'Antoni is the trendy pick here, with the Rockets shocking the NBA at 3rd in the West. This isn't to slight D'Antoni; he's done an amazing job, but been gifted with a situation tailor-made for his system.

The pieces all fit perfectly for him: from the front office's score-first mandate, to James Harden's awesomeness, a bevy of elite shooters, and emerging pick-n-roll potential. D'Antoni teams always over-perform in the regular season anyway, and while this is a regular season award, I can't help but feel like we're inflating Houston's stock just a bit.

Meanwhile, Popovich is steering the Spurs on a 65-win pace, having to revamp their identity on the fly with Tim Duncan gone, Tony Parker looking ancient, two old-school big men starting, all kinds of new rotation adjustments, and a serious downgrade in overall defensive talent. It's a dramatic transition, only one that appears seamless because Popovich is so fucking good at his job.

There's a lingering sentiment among some of the NBA's voting community that Popovich should win this award every year by default. Some years another contender does something impressive that can't be ignored, but this year that guy is Pop himself .

Regards To: Mike D'Antoni, Dave Fizdale, Brad Stevens

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE HALF: DRAYMOND GREEN, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
There's a serious bout for DPOY this year, and Kawhi Leonard isn't even really involved: Two-time runner up Draymond Green is squaring off against human fly-swatter Rudy Gobert. While the two dominate in generally different ways - Green by stopping anything he faces anywhere in its tracks, Gobert as an impenetrable fortress around the hoop - the tale of the tape leaves very little between them.

Both are absolutely crushing defensive stats this year: Gobert leads in blocks, defensive win shares and defensive rating . Draymond leads in defensive BPM, is right behind The Stifle Tower in D rating and D win shares, and sits third in steals as one of only two players in the Top-20 of both steals and blocks (Greek Freak being the other).

The teams they lead are even neck-and-neck in most defensive metrics, adjusting for Golden State's much greater pace. The Dubs and Jazz sit 1-2 in opponent FG%, points per shot, and overall defensive rating.

Ultimately though, this award should be Green's as of now. He's been the usual multi-faceted monster on D, doing an elite bit of everything for Golden State, while enabling them to unleash a new brand of Death Lineup and survive without Andrew Bogut. It's acceptably stated that his contributions have never meant more to their success, and have addressed a serious question mark for the Warriors going into this season.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul

Before we conclude the proceedings, a brief detour in honor of the first half's All-NBA recipients:

ALL-ROOKIE
FIRST TEAM

G-Joel Embiid, G-Joel Embiid, F-Joel Embiid, F-Joel Embiid, C- Joel Embiid

SECOND TEAM
G-Malcolm Brogdon, G-Andrew Harrison, F-Dario Saric, F-Pascal Siakam, C-Joel Embiid

ALL-DEFENSE
FIRST TEAM

G-Chris Paul, G-Tony Allen, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Rudy Gobert


SECOND TEAM
G-Patrick Beverley, G-Thabo Sefolosha, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Anthony Davis, C-DeAndre Jordan

ALL NBA
FIRST TEAM

G-Russell Westbrook, G-James Harden, F-Kevin Durant, F-LeBron James, C-Anthony Davis

SECOND TEAM
G-Chris Paul, G-Kyle Lowry, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Marc Gasol

THIRD TEAM 
G-Stephen Curry, G-John Wall, F-Jimmy Butler, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, C-DeMarcus Cousins

...which leads us to...

MVP: RUSSELL WESTBROOK, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Lastly by both design and coincidence, we have the MVP; a clusterfuck of compelling narratives if ever one existed. On the fringe, there are big men with absurd stats on awful teams (Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins), pint-sized point machines (Kyle Lowry, Isaiah Thomas), a guy who's steadily ascended the league's heirarchy (Jimmy Butler), an annual contender who refuses to regress (pre-injury Chris Paul), the NBA's quietest storm (Kawhi Leonard) - and its loudest (Draymond Green), a grizzly bear (Marc Gasol), a guy who defies explanation (Giannis Antetokounmpo), and two former MVPs doing what they've always done (LeBron James & Kevin Durant).

At the center are James Harden and Russell Westbrook, whose seasons are stretching the superlative stratosphere. Deciding between these two in any regard is like pulling teeth with rusty pliers; either is a worthy winner, and for maybe the first time in my life I could accept either choice without a single debate.

Harden's been an unparalleled offensive catalyst this season. Accounting for Houston's record pace of 3-point bombs, The Beard's producing a ridiculous 56ppg in pts+assts, while both the eye test and metrics suggest his once-comical defense is improving quickly. Patrick Beverley is the only Rocket with a better defensive BPM, and Harden actually sits 15th league-wide in defensive win shares, if you believe that.

Houston being wayyy the surprise of the NBA so far only fuels his candidacy, and while it's a legitimate narrative, it's been written by many pens. As alluded to in my COY pick, the Rockets' success has been a perfect storm of variables that have slid together seamlessly; it's entirely possible (read: somewhat likely) that Harden is benefiting as much from D'Antoni's system and the players around him as vice versa. His performance is especially inspiring after a sub-par 2015-16 run, but a comeback should really hold no weight here.

If we're talking pure value, Russell Westbrook is putting up one of the most epic seasons in NBA history. His narrative is as compelling as they come: a superstar spurned in a controversial exodus, who stayed loyal to a franchise he potentially saved in the process. After Durant's departure, few could have blamed Westbrook for wanting out of OKC, but he's kept them competitive, given them hope amid desolation, and is literally doing everything for them. He's the ultimate eye test player; he never stops competing.

You want stats? Westbrook is the league's leading scorer, and on pace to shatter the all-time record for usage rate. He also leads the league in BPM (by a mile), PER and VORP, three of the main pillars of advanced metrics. Even Harden's defensive strides loom in the shadow of Russ' 4.5  DBPM, second in the entire league. That's all without even mentioning the obvious (though it's worth re-stating) that he's on pace record the NBA's 2nd triple-double average ever, and first in 55 years.

And while Harden's blissfully cruised through this season in an absolutely ideal situation, Westbrook's spent time in relative trenches, grinding out a slew of tough wins with a young roster that, while showing potential, is maligned and completely fucked without him. He doesn't get to benefit from a tailor-made offense, or perfectly complementary talent, he's just too good to be stopped anyway - both on the court in the MVP race right now.

Regards To: James Harden, Kevin Durant, LeBron James

Enjoy the second half - Banter's All-Star benches are coming soon!

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