Showing posts with label Boston Celtics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Celtics. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Banter's 2017-18 NBA Season Preview


Another NBA season is upon us, this one bookending perhaps the single most ridiculous summer in league history. With dominoes freshly scattered all over the board, there's plenty of uncertainty abound, but we're going to figure it all out here (or least go down trying).

Here are Banter's predictions for the 2017-18 season, starting with possibly the single crappiest  geographic grouping of basketball teams since the early 90's California high school scene:

LEASTERN CONFERENCE

15. Chicago Bulls
Well that whole "Three Alphas" thing sure worked out didn't it. With Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler all now playing in different cities (definitely for the better), the Bulls are left at ground zero. That they got such a crappy, high-risk return for Butler will only spike the pain of their self-inflicted rebuild.

14. Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks full-on nose-dove this summer, deciding to bottom out after years of competitive mediocrity. As a result, Dennis Schroder is now their best player, which doesn't bode well for his ego or Atlanta's season.

13. Brooklyn Nets 
Still haunted by the ghost of Billy Kings Past, the Nets are only ready for baby steps at this point. Gaining a few picks by taking on the burdens of Timofey Mozgov, Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll's contracts will help them salvage some draft equity, but won't move the needle much on-court this year.


12. Orlando Magic

It's still tough to expect much from the Magic, who are now basically the Wooderson of NBA rebuilds. They've stunted their own growth with mismanaged assets; their progress this year relies on maligned talent without much of an identity or pecking order.

11. Indiana Pacers
Will go as far as Myles Turner can take them. Their veteran-laden rotation, while not as pitiful as the rest of the East's basement, is largely capped in terms of upside.

10. New York Knicks
The Knicks can now unleash Porzingis fully, which is more than any of the East's other lottery bound teams can say. Their rotation isn't awful relative to their neighbors, several youngsters could over-perform, and there should be a sense of relief amid this roster without the Phil-based negativity clouding their franchise.

9. Philadelphia 76ers
In this shallow of a conference, they're a playoff team with a healthy Embiid. But at this point betting on a healthy Embiid is foolhardy, so a narrow miss - trust #TheProcess - seems like the call.

8. Charlotte Hornets
Will likely make the East playoffs by mere virtue of not being as crappy as the rest of their competition. The forthcoming Michael Jordan/Dwight Howard owner-employee dynamic could be one of the season's most entertaining subplots.

7. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons had just about as bad a season as possible in 2016-17, and get to clap back with a renewed Reggie Jackson, ostensibly-upgraded shooting, and seriously inferior resistance. They can probably book playoff tickets.

6. Miami Heat
After least season's improbable midseason 180, Miami are suddenly deep rotation with an effective space-and-pace mandate. Sustaining last season's second-half success may not be unrealistic; they'll be playing a lottt of winnable games against East fodder.

5. Toronto Raptors

For a competitive team, the Raptors have adapted amazingly poorly to the evolving NBA game, with tons of midrange jumpers, a clunky center, and abhorrent ball movement (dead last in virtually every assist metric last year).

Attempting to reinvent themselves as 3-point gunslingers isn't going incredibly well so far. They can't sink too far in such a shallow conference, but they'll struggle to maintain footing with the rise of...

4. Milwaukee Bucks
Already having rattled the Raptors' cage last April, the Bucks appear set to leapfrog them this year. They'll benefit from strong continuity, a full season of Khris Middleton, a year of growth for Thon Maker, and Giannis probably uncorking an MVP-type campaign.

And this is to say nothing of Jabari Parker, who looms in rehab as one of the NBA's biggest x-factors. If he returns healthy, they're a mortal lock for the Top 4.

3. Washington Wizards
The Wizards came within Kelly Olynyk on PEDs of the East Finals last season and are returning virtually the same team. They have to be here.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers
The defending East champs enter the season with their new starting point guard shelved indefinitely, and far more adjustments than a Finals three-peater would like to make.

Between their numerous new bodies and health risks, shifting identity, and the token "Playing for June" mentality, a first seed might not be all that likely.


1. Boston Celtics

They consolidated their talent, but also lost several valuable role players. Even with a questionable defense and some mismatched talent pairings, Brad Stevens is a lineup wizard who's repeatedly found ways maximize unconventional edges. The Celts nabbed the first seed last year and probably got better; expect it to happen again.


BESTERN CONFERENCE

15. Phoenix Suns
"Two years away from being two years away" applies heavily here. The Suns are stocked with upside, but short on experience and anemic on both sides of the ball.


14. Sacramento Kings

Signing George Hill, Zach Randolph and (to a lesser extent) Vince Carter might stymie their youth movement, but should keep Sacramento slightly off the West floor. It's fair to question why they wouldn't just hand De'Aaron Fox the keys while gaining 2018 lotto equity, but Vivek sees things the rest of us don't.

13. Dallas Mavericks
After another summer of free agency shenanigans, the Mavs bring back a largely-unchanged roster from their unmemorable 33-49 run last year (plus Dennis Smith Jr). Given how much better the West has gotten, expect them to stumble a bit.

12. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers upgraded pretty much their entire roster through almost every medium: trades, the draft, free agency and player development. There will definitely be a learning curve though; anyone expecting this team to make the playoffs - rebuilding from the very bottom - is lying to themselves.

11. New Orleans Pelicans
More time for Boogie and Brow to coalesce can only be a good thing for the Pelicans. But they're also embarrassingly thin around their stars, and just handed $125 million to a guy who's pretty likely to get injured at some point this year. Stealing Cousins from the Kings might be the only thing saving Dell Demps' job right now.

10. Utah Jazz
The Jazz will probably still be an elite defensive team, but are going to have a wonderfully difficult time scoring with the rest of the lottery, never mind the West's best. Ricky Rubio can find easy looks for Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, but spacing will be limited since all three are total non-threats from distance. Look for Rodney Hood to have a large year.

9. Memphis Grizzlies
The West's ultimate dice roll, with everything in the air from Marc Gasol's future, to the development of several projects, and the perilously expensive health of Chandler Parsons. They're younger and more athletic, but likely not talented enough for their playoff streak to survive.

8. Portland Trailblazers
A full season with the Bosnian Bear on board might mean a return to the playoffs for Portland, who also added potential impact rookies in Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan. They also won't have to live with the daily burden of Allen Crabbe's contract on their conscience.


7. Denver Nuggets 

Will be a wildly entertaining League Pass watch; a high-energy team with several gunners, built around a center who thinks he plays on the Harlem Globetrotters. They'll score on everyone. Everyone will score on them (except the Jazz). Good times.

6. Los Angeles Clippers
To state the obvious the Clippers will miss Chris Paul, but should fare OK for a team that just traded a top-10 player. Their rotation is deeper and more balanced, with upside potential in several spots and - finally - a starting 3 in Danilo Gallinari. If Blake Griffin stays healthy, they're playoff-bound.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Huge upgrades for the Wolves, who are now far deeper, far more talented, far more experienced, and far more functional than last year's iteration. The West's homecourt scene will be difficult to crash, but the 5-seed seems like - barring injury - the Wolves' floor.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder 
A newly-united "Big 3" of stars usually takes time to adjust to each other. It happened in Miami. It happened in Cleveland. It sure as shit happened to the Lakers. Given the heavy overlap in skill sets of the Westbrook/George/Anthony Scylla-monster, we can expect it to happen here.

OKC's going to need some time to get their stuff together, hell they barely beat an Australian League team the other night. Even if their ceiling's high, the Thunder will probably lose enough early games to squander a top-3 seed.

3. San Antonio Spurs
Betting against the Spurs is one of the most consistently-tested ways to make yourself look like an idiot. Time and time again, they've come into a season with naysayers doubting their age, depth and competitive edge, which has almost always resulted in humble pie. So yes, even amid the vastly improved competition, they'll probably still be here.


2. Houston Rockets
They were already an elite regular season team (trademark 2006, Mike D'Antoni), but adding Chris Paul to the existing space-heavy pick-and-roll horror show will be deadly.

The Rockets - overperformers on D last year - should also be a better defensive unit with PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute joining their perimeter. They'll steamroll enough weaker teams for the 2-seed, then flame out in the second round.

1. Golden State Warriors
Duh.


ALL-STARS

East Starters: G-John Wall, G-Kyrie Irving, F-LeBron James, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Kevin Love

East Bench: G-Kyle Lowry, G-Bradley Beal, F-Gordon Hayward, F-Kristaps Porzingis, F-Al Horford, WC-Kemba Walker, WC-Goran Dragic


West Starters: G-Stephen Curry, G-Russell Westbrook, F-Kevin Durant, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Anthony Davis

West Bench: G-James Harden, G-Chris Paul, F-Draymond Green, F-Paul George, F-Jimmy Butler, WC-Blake Griffin, WC-Karl-Anthony Towns



AWARDS

As some of you know, I recently took a gig writing for the Memphis Grizzlies site Beale Street Bears of the Fansided network. Part of the arrangement is an exclusivity clause that my work for them not be duplicated elsewhere.

I recently submitted my picks for the NBA's regular season awards as part of BSB's preseason Roundtable series; in an effort to not potentially plagiarize myself, I've linked my predictions below:


ROY: Lonzo Ball

COY: Tom Thibodeau

6MOY: Jae Crowder
(Submitted the above pick before all this nonsense about Kevin Love starting at center - thus creating room for Crowder to start - began leaking. Still possible that doesn't happen and/or work, so I'll stand by my pick)

MIP: Myles Turner

DPOY: Rudy Gobert

MVP: Kawhi Leonard


ALL-NBA


First Team:
G-Russell Westbrook, G-Steph Curry, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Kevin Durant, C-Anthony Davis

Second Team: G-James Harden, G-John Wall, F-LeBron James, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, C-Karl-Anthony Towns 

Third Team: G-Chris Paul, G-Kyrie Irving, F-Draymond Green, F-Paul George, C-Nikola Jokic


PLAYOFFS

East First Round: Celtics > Hornets, Cavs > Pistons, Wizards > Heat, Bucks > Raptors
West First Round: Warriors > Blazers, Rockets > Nuggets, Spurs > Clippers, Thunder > Wolves

East Semis: Celtics > Bucks, Cavs > Wizards

West Semis: Warriors > Thunder, Spurs > Rockets

East Finals: Cavs > Celtics

West Finals: Warriors > Spurs

NBA Finals:  Warriors > Cavs

Here's to another great NBA season - enjoy the action!

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

The NBA's Second Season


The NBA offseason has recently become a hype factory of drama and intrigue, subtweets and WojBombs. An entertainment spectacle unlike few in pro sports, it's almost become a whole new season in itself.

But the 2017 offseason has taken things to new heights of upheaval and chaos. Superstars are being given away, quality players are jumping ship left, right and center, and the NBA's power balance has again been consolidated, while salaries skyrocket to yet new heights. You can almost picture Dr Evil announcing the contracts some of these guys are signing for.

So much stuff is happening, it can be hard to gather everything in the proper context. With that in mind, here's a recap of what we've seen so far, attempting to make sense of it all:

RIP Lob City
What It Means: There won't be enough ball to go around in Houston next year. 


So apparently Doc Rivers pissed off Chris Paul, which is totally logical given both that Rivers is a bad GM with a stubborn attachment to his former players/son, and also that just about everyone pisses off Chris Paul.

Of the three superstar trades this summer, the Paul haul has to be considered the best (more on that to come), netting the Clippers an assortment of established vets, decent prospects, and even a first-round pick.

Meanwhile Mike D'Antoni gets to find touches for two of the NBA's most ball-dominant players with Paul joining James Harden. If Carmelo somehow joins the mix, CP3 might be the best thing possible for his game - both in terms of on-court synergy and Banana Boat Points - but the alpha struggle will no doubt present itself.

Blake Griffin Chills
What It Means: There will be no rebuild for the Clippers.


There's a lot of this stressed importance on star players to win, as though competing for a championship should be their only motivation in life.

Some of us (them) are happier just lamping in a star-filled oasis of beautiful weather and people, where the living's easy, your team has a historical commitment to mediocrity, and the pay is very very good.

Losing Paul sucks, but there's a decent rotation around Griffin, who's definitely capable of handling more of a playmaking role. The Clippers will no doubt take a step back, but they could surprise those who expect them to fall from the West's middle tier.

Property on Waiters Island Now Much More Expensive
What It Means: Last year's free agency loser made the most of his contract year re-run.


Brooklyn Makes Otto Porter a Max Man
What It Means: The Nets are about to hardball a second team into completely cap-fucking themselves.


Chauncey Billups Turns Down Cavs' GM Offer
What It Means: Nobody wants to work for Dan Gilbert once LeBron leaves. 


Chicago Gets Robbed at Gunpoint for Jimmy Butler
What It Means: Tom Thibodeau literally put an automatic weapon to Gar Forman's head, gave him terms on a deal for his best player, forced him to accept, and walked away laughing. 


Joe Dumars. Elgin Baylor. Bryan Colangelo x 2. The Bulls' Gar Forman is just the latest in a line of recent Executive of the Year winners who've either been exposed as poor GMs that caught lightning in a bottle, or completely lost their minds years later.

The Butler trade needs to first be prefaced by the Cameron Payne deal, in which the Bulls gave up several valuable assets for an unproven PG who was sent to the D-League within five weeks. This time trading a guy who, by any measure whatsoever is one of the 12-15 best players in the NBA, they received a similarly hopeless return.

Giving up on Payne, they've acquired yet another unproven PG in Kris Dunn, one whose shooting - the Bulls' main need - was horrendous last year. They took on Zach LaVine, a guy with a torn ACL whose ceiling and value are tied very heavily to athletic ability. They also acquired a top-ten pick in a loaded draft, but were foolish enough to give back their own first-rounder in a trade that was already felonious theft.

Who knows what delusion careened through Forman's head when he made this deal. Either way, Danny Ainge was probably on a rough sleep schedule after seeing what Butler went for. Or at least until...

Robyn Hayward's Instagram was Right
What It Means:Gordon REALLY wanted to finish his Player's Tribune article

The Jazz - also down George Hill - look like they're headed back to the lottery. And even though he missed out on both Butler and Paul George, Ainge has added an All-Star each of the past two summers without giving up a single asset. Maybe the best-trading GM in the NBA does know what he's doing here...

Minnesota Looks LEGIT
What It Means: The leap they were supposed to make last year is definitely happening this year.  


Backtracking slightly to the Butler trade: If not for the Bulls' mind-numbing stupidity, I'd be happy about it, as a great player no longer has to waste away his prime on a sad-ass team.

Adding Butler to the Towns-Wiggins-Dieng core is massive in itself for Minny, who then bolstered their bench with Taj Gibson at good value, and snared Jeff Teague for startlingly little (almost makes you wonder...). Spacing could be an issue for them, but even if so, they have assets to spare in a trade for a shooter.

The West figures a bloodbath, but with continued development from Towns, the Butler heist taking both offensive and (more importantly) defensive onus off Wiggins, the addition by subtraction of their worst shooter (Ricky Rubio) and defender (LaVine), and now two quality vets to round out their rotation, the Wolves look like mortal locks for a mid-tier playoff spot, and perhaps more.

Nick Young Signs With the Warriors
What It Means: Apparently they didn't have enough swag already.


Amir Johnson & JJ Redick Sign One-Year Deals with Sixers
What It Means: #TheProcess still has to hit the salary floor somehow.


Dwight Howard Loses Again
What It Means: His legacy might be in stone at this point.

The Nuggets Are Still 'Team Purgatory'

What It Means: Denver really doesn't want a lottery pick. 

Ever since the Denver Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony - almost seven years ago - the franchise has been on a rudderless quest for mediocrity, unable to compete at the highest level, and unwilling to blow it up and build for the future like so many around them had done.

Acquiring Paul Millsap is yet another step in no real direction for the Nuggets; P-Milly doesn't move the needle enough for them to be anything more than a bottom-rung playoff team. Moreover, it restricts their financial flexibility as they build around Nikola Jokic, while lowering their odds at a good draft pick. All this for a player on the back end of his prime who doesn't fit Denver's developmental timeline at all. Makes you wonder what exactly the Nuggets' endgame is.

OKC Plays Cat Burglar
What It Means: They didn't replace Kevin Durant, but they came damn close (for a season).


A few weeks ago, Paul George made the Pacers acutely aware of his intentions to play elsewhere - as if they hadn't been clear for months - thus setting in motion a series of whirlwind events.

Within a 48-hour period, there were "credibly sourced" rumors tying PG to the Celtics, Cavaliers, Rockets, and obviously the Lakers, none of which seemed very far-fetched given narratives and Indiana's utter lack of leverage. But at the 11th hour: 45th minute, in swooped the Thunder - as out-of-nowhere as a Giannis chase-down block. They basically landed George for the assets gained from dealing Serge Ibaka; assets which have only diminished in value.

This is confusing for several reasons: not only was an elite player again dealt for a paltry offer - circumstances notwithstanding - but there's only a drunk puncher's chance that George will re-sign with OKC. This has the making of an expensive rental, likely full of false hope for a fanbase that just lost Kevin Durant and watched him win Finals MVP 11 months later.

If PG does decide to stick around for some completely untapped reason, then Sam Presti will have actually stolen a superstar from someone else, as difficult a concept as that may be to grasp.

Jrue The Damaja
What It Means: Dell Demps is a gambling man.


Whatever "my body is made of glass" discount Steph Curry took on his last contract certainly does not apply in New Orleans where Jrue Holiday - who for argument's sake has averaged 57 games over the past half-decade - just inked for $25mil/year over the next half-decade.

The 12 games Holiday spent with his wife as she battled a frightening brain tumor last year only slightly skews his spotty health record. This has to call into question the New Orleans training staff, given that he averaged 74.5 games through four seasons in Philly, and the Pelicans' entire roster seems to be perpetually injured.

The Point Guard Market Dries Up on Kyle Lowry
What It Means: Making the last three All-Star teams ain't what it used to be.

In contrast to Holiday's lavish deal, Lowry came off a career year and found a chilling lack of love.

Despite logical rumors pointing to Minnesota or San Antonio, Lowry humbly re-upped with the team he reportedly had "zero interest" in, while only getting three years of guaranteed money.

It comes as a disappointment for a player on the back nine of his career, who took a discount last contract due to late-bloomer and conditioning issues, and now despite becoming an elite PG, finds himself doing it again. This time Lowry is purely a victim of the point guard market; an inundation of talent that already diluted the position's market value was only heightened when half of the 2017 Draft's top ten picks were PGs. Simply put, fewer teams need one than ever.

Conversely the deal is pretty much exactly what the Raptors wanted, neither losing Lowry for nothing, nor paying him the max when he's 36 and most likely in decline. His contract is also infinitely more tradeable should Masai Ujiri decide to hit the Rebuild Button on this core group.

Diamond Stone Traded to Hawks
What It Means: 'Diamond Stone' is probably the new most awesome name in the NBA.


Zach Randolph Signs With Kings
What It Means: A big piece of Grint N Grind has died, along with a bit of my soul. 


The Raptors' Frontcourt Splinters
What It Means: That DeMarre Carroll signing really starting to rear its ugly head. 


Kevin Durant Takes One For the Team
What It Means: The rest of the NBA is fucked.

So Steph Curry supermaxed. Considering the Warriors just had him on one of the best-value contracts in NBA history for three years, he was due.

Durant thus bit the bullet, leaving almost $10mil on the table - a 28% pay cut - so the Warriors had the flexibility to retain Andre Iguodala and Shawn Livingston, two key cogs in their title runs. For all the shade he was thrown last summer after what seemed like a cop-out, there's no questioning his willingness to keep this team together and truly carve a place in history for them and himself.

The Phil Is Gone
What It Means: James Dolan has finally done something sane in his capacity as Knicks owner 

Although it was increasingly clear that Phil Jackson's descent into arrogant senility necessitated his firing as Knicks' president, there are few individuals alive who could be trusted to do the right thing less than Jimmy Dolan.

Although the Straight Shot's lead singer saw fit to make a sound basketball decision for likely the first time in two decades, there are rumblings about that his old habits may not have died hard quite yet. "Better Find A Church" indeed.

The Rich Get Richer
What It Means: Competitive parity has both improved and faltered.


There's two ways to look at this depending on your perspective: The first is that the seemingly massive chasm between the NBA's haves and have-nots has grown even wider, with middling teams like Utah, Atlanta, Chicago and Indiana all losing star players to stronger teams (for little-to-nothing) and being sent back to the drawing board. The Rockets also solidified their talent at the expense of their contemporaries, the Clippers. There's no question that elite talent has been consolidated in a huge way for such a short time period, and the rebuilds will be happening everywhere.


The flipside to this is that we might see a greater modicum of competition atop the conferences, especially in the East where the Celtics - armed with Hayward and whatever assets they reap from their logjam of swingmen - could give the Cavs a run for their money if things break right.

Dealing with Golden State in the West is no doubt more of a daunting task, but the Rockets are mounting an effort, the Wolves will quickly ascend, and perhaps even the Thunder can build around two superstars. For all the rhetoric spewed last year about franchises biding their time and waiting out the Warriors or Cavs, things seem to be trending the opposite way.

Whether this amounts to anything in the way of derailing Cavs-Warriors IV remains unclear, but even if the outlook is grim, you can't blame opposing GMs for a lack of effort thus far this offseason. This is probably the most "Shit or Get Off the Pot" season the NBA's ever had; the shakeup is far from over.

Friday, October 21, 2016

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 1: The East

Ah, October.

The air is crisply cooling, the leaves are going all Bob Ross, pumpkins are being carved, pumpkin pie is being served, and everything else is pumpkin spiced. Most importantly, the struggle through baseball, golf and televised darts felt by NBA fans is on its last whimper.

After a historic offseason, we've been left with what seems like a foregone conclusion: the Warriors and Cavaliers will meet again in the Finals, with the Dubs looking unbeatable if healthy.

But between now and an inevitable ending, a very dynamic and delicate power struggle will play out among the NBA's middle tier. Venture far out of either conference's top-3 and the pecking order is very unclear. With so much player movement this summer, not only are some variables unknown, but the resulting margins slim - playoff spots should be a dogfight in both conferences.

Speaking of conferences, let's jump into a breakdown of each in Part 1 of Banter's 100% Guaranteed, Flawlessly Hypothesized NBA Preview; starting with the East:

LOTTERY LOCKS: 


15. Brooklyn Nets

As laughable as this roster is, it's still similarly talented on paper to a Simmons-less Sixers, and certainly more experienced. That said, they have far less upside and no means whatsoever to better themselves mid-season.

It's going to be a close race for the bottom between the two. If only Brooklyn had any incentive to be bad; forking over their next two first-round picks, both sure bets for the Top-5.

14. Philadelphia 76ers

The Ben Simmons injury hurts a lot. He was a Sixers rookie, so odds are it was happening, but it's a swift kick in the head to Philly's momentum. It also doesn't bode well for #TheProcess that their likely three best players are all centers.

Philly will now have to scrap either way to escape their token role as the NBA's Worst, but a seemingly inevitable trade of either Noel or Jahlil Okafor could put Philly in a better position to weather Simmons' loss and actually make sense as a basketball team.

13. Miami Heat
xThe bigger they come the harder they fall. By LeBron's count, Miami should still be defending an NBA championship; instead they find themselves unexpectedly thrust into a rebuild.

Losing both Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh signals a new era for the Heat, and knocks them down to the East basement where tanking is a very real possibility. They lack consistent scoring outside of Goran Dragic; relying on increased roles from a Josh Richardson/Hassan Whiteside/Dion Waiters/Derrick Williams quartet that cumulatively went for a whopping 35 ppg last year.

Even if Tyler Johnson lives up to his comical new contract, it's hard to see them winning any more than 30 games. Miami might be better off punting with their sights on 2017's plentiful Draft Class.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

12. Charlotte Hornets

Last season the Hornets re-discovered themselves, playing at a top-10 pace with a balanced and varied scoring attack. After losing three key cogs, Charlotte will have to lean much more heavily on Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum to put the ball in the basket.

While the defensive versatility of the Batum/Marvin Williams/Michael Kidd-Gilchrist trifecta gives the Hornets lots of options and a long presence on the perimeter, MKG's sub-par shooting will only further serve to constrict the offense, and subsidize double-teams of Walker drives.

Charlotte could potentially create headaches on D for certain small-ball lineups, but overall have lost enough scoring punch to suggest a regression back to the lottery.

11. Orlando Magic

So much nonsense going on here. Deal-happy Magic GM Rob Hennigan might be executing a thinly-veiled asset horde, but their awkward glut of big men serves to stymie both trade value and their progress as a basketball team.

So much of this bizarre experiment hinges on Aaron Gordon's transition to "small forward" (if positions still exist). While Gordon gives them a wide athletic framework within which to work, it's nearly impossible to see all of Orlando's bigs fitting into the rotation without marginalizing each other to some extent.

Rumors abound suggest that Nikola Vucevic may be on the trading block, but the market for a center who offers no rim protection and can't quite hit 3s might be dry. A forthcoming deal may help this team find an identity; as of right now it's nebulous at best.

10. Milwaukee Bucks 


Losing Khris Middleton for possibly the entire year hits the Bucks like a Ford Expedition, especially in terms of their spacing-challenged offense. Relics Jason Terry and Steve Novak might be forced into bigger roles out of pure necessity.

Milwaukee seems bent on replicating the Thunder's recently-dismantled Long Ball blueprint, and while all their limbs project as a strong defensive unit, they really couldn't afford to lose their best shooter.

The Bucks' best hopes of salvaging this season come in trading Greg Monroe, who's on a great deal and would fit better on just about any other team. They could fetch a badly-needed perimeter threat and open up the starting center spot for John Henson, one of the NBA's most comically-underused players.

9. Washington Wizards

Maxing out Bradley Beal was a gamble the Wizards had to take after completely fanning on the Kevin Durant Sweepstakes, especially in this summer's apocalyptic Free Agency market. That said, it pins a lot of resources on a player who's missed a quarter of his NBA career so far, while spending another third of it playing through or recovering from injury. At full health, Beal is a borderline All-Star, but our glimpses of it have been fleeting.

John Wall is obviously a franchise building block, but his greatest weakness - his shooting - is only exacerbated without Beal flanking him. In fact most of Washington's roster, like several other lower-rung East teams, seems bereft of en-vogue floor-spacing, unless the petulant Markieff Morris is suddenly becoming an offensive centerpiece.

8. Chicago Bulls 

A peculiar and lateral offseason for "Da Bulls". They traded Derrick Rose, presumably aware that he was ball-stopping Jimmy Butler and clogging their already-shaky spacing with his awful outside shooting.

Now with Robin Lopez as insurance for the imminently-departing Pau Gasol, the Bulls needed to get Butler some help on offense. They thus proceeded to sign not one, but two high-cost players who - maddeningly similar to Rose - will keep the ball out of Butler's hands and do little-to-nothing to space the floor.

It's unclear if this ill-advised hodgepodge of perimeter talent qualifies as a Big 3, but if so the Butler-Wade-Rondo trio is probably the most dysfunctional ever.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES: 


7. New York Knicks

The Knicks made progress this summer. There's no two ways about it; they'll be a better basketball team in 2016-17. But the pidgeon-steps they took towards contention with Melo's window dwindling are far from flattering for Phil Jackson's third offseason. Going almost-all-in on Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah is a serious gamble; the Knicks will be lucky to get a healthy season out of both, never mind their pre-injury selves.

Brandon Jennings will be a welcome addition to their scoring-bound bench, but behind him it's dental floss-thin. Meanwhile Kristaps Porzingis (he of the Latvian rap video) is the team's only significant realizable upside, and his development risks being stymied while Rose and Carmelo Anthony dominate the ball. Their ceiling seems fairly capped even at perfect health - which is far from guaranteed.

6. Atlanta Hawks  

The Hawks aren't in that bad shape for a team that lost two of its three best players over the summer, but maintaining their mid-level playoff spot will depend on several variables:

- that Dennis Schroder will make a leap from stud backup to above-average starter (possible)
- that Kent Bazemore's worth all the money they just gave him (probable)
- and that the Dwight Howard signing won't go up in flames (anyone's guess)

Howard certainly renders Atlanta more combustible than they've been since the Josh Smith era, and poses difficulties for Coach Bud's fluid offense if unwilling to seriously adjust. Paul Millsap is a beast, but there's only so much he can do to keep ATL's system together as the team around him gradually erodes.

5. Detroit Pistons 

Losing Reggie Jackson for the first month-plus of the season blows for a team that many are picking to rise to the top of the East's clusterfucked middle tier. Ish Smith is far from a bad replacement (he'll be great for Andre Drummond on the pick-n-roll), but that stretches an already-thin backcourt bench further.

Their sans-Jackson schedule isn't overly hard, but Tobias Harris is unproven as a primary scorer, and openings for 3's from KCP and Marcus Morris won't be as wide or frequent without Jackson's slashing.

But once Jackson returns, they field a fearsome starting five, well equipped for the space-and-pace offense Stan Van Gundy's so fond of. Not to mention they have Boban.

THE BRIDESMAIDS:

4. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers might've taken a step back defensively with their summer makeover, but the gains on offense - an area which has plagued Indiana for several seasons - are considerable. With a new scoring-friendly coach in the driver's seat, Indiana now has threats from every position to surround Paul George, who seemed like a one-man army at times last year.

Plus it's not like they're suddenly awful on D now. They only have leaks in a couple spots (#MontaEllis), Paul George is still a multi-positional defensive monster, and Myles Turner will become a truly elite rim protector as his IQ and positioning develop.

The net result of the Pacers' shift in philosophy may be a moot point overall. They're much deeper and more talented than last year's iteration, which is why they've returned to the East's upper tier.

3. Toronto Raptors

At first glance it seems like the Raptors had a blah offseason aside from the somewhat-likely Demar DeRozan re-up. Losing breakout Bismack Biyombo while some of their direct competition re-tooled heavily isn't a great start.

But the Jared Sullinger acquisition is large for a rotation that saw Luis Scola log heavy minutes last year. The Raptors now can time-share between two competent, multi-skilled fours without feeding Scola's corpse to opposing athletes.

The Six's summer also saw their All-Star backcourt win Olympic gold medals, an experience whose impact has translated dramatically to the NBA for a number of players. It's not irrational to expect some net positive effect after a summer of playing/training with a handful of the World's truly elite, and - more importantly - getting the best coaching Lowry or DeRozan have ever had. At the absolute least, Toronto's two most important pieces are riding a wave of confidence after inconsistent postseasons.

DeMarre Carroll missed a big chunk of last year and will certainly have a two-way impact, while any development from stashes Bruno Caboclo or Lucas Nogueira would only be icing on the cake. The East's top four will be tougher this year, but the Raps won't be helpless to defend themselves.

2. Boston Celtics

It can't be underscored how huge the Al Horford signing is for a team that hoarded assets in search of a star, then had one dropped in their lap, at their shallowest position no less. Horford would've fit well just about anywhere, but especially so in Boston, who retain their disposable youth and Rolodex of draft picks for the next move.

With lots of available talent, and now two All-Stars to beckon potential trade targets, the odds of Danny Ainge pulling the trigger on a blockbuster aren't bad, raising the Celtics' projected ceiling. But even at present they're probably the East's 2nd-best team, with depth at every position behind a sneaky-good starting lineup.

Losing alpha sixth-man Evan Turner hurts a varied roster like Boston's a lot less, especially given his price tag. Brad Stevens has an absurd knack for maximizing his talent's effectiveness, so he'll find innovative ways to replace Turner's production and continue the Celts' ascent.

HOMECOURT GOES TO:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers This just is happening. Long live JR Smith.




Stay tuned for Part 2: The West, and Part 3: The Hardware, coming soon to a smartphone screen near you...

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Offseason Power Rankings

They came. They saw. They spent.

The 2016 offseason will be remembered for two things:

First, obviously, Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors. Second, and more notably, the floodgates of TV money opening up and unleashing a Biblical wave of contract bloating upon the 2016 free agency class.

Plenty happened this summer, but those dominant themes shook the NBA to its core, rippling far in a summer of transition for an abnormal number of franchises (as you're about to see).

With hundreds of players, teams, moments and metaphysical concepts adrift in the aftermath, there's plenty to sort out. To help keep track of who got the best and worst of things this summer, here are Banter's 2016 Offseason Power Rankings:

Last. Hack-A-Shaq

Second-Last. The BasedGod Curse

Third-Last. North Carolina's All-Star Game Hosting Privileges

704. Brooklyn Nets

When it rains it pours. So soon after they forfeited draft picks for aging veterans, the Nets are awful, unable to rebuild, and attempting to incinerate money in a desperate dash for the Salary Floor. Fully expect them to assume Philly's spot as the NBA's Worst Team.

699. Dion Waiters

685. Vivek Ranadive's Q Rating

662. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Russell Westbrook re-up was significant, and the Ibaka trade was a nice scoop for a player becoming less relevant to the Thunder's success.

But examining OKC's offseason in any other context than "they just lost Kevin Durant for nothing", is kinda missing the forest for the trees.

650. Miami Heat
Gone are Joe Johnson, Luol Deng, and franchise icon Dwyane Wade. In their place are Wayne Ellington, Luke Babbitt and the immortal Dion Waiters. With Chris Bosh's career also in the balance, the Heat are inches away from a total rebuild, while matching one of the summer's most preposterous contract offers.

628. Dave Joerger
Jeorger bolted Memphis after a remarkable performance last year, amid a perhaps-legit beef with upper management. With suitors lined up around the league, he thus promptly committed to the franchise where he's far-and-away most likely to encounter perhaps-legit beef with upper management.

619. Washington Wizards


618. John Wall's Career Arc
As recently as 10 months ago, John Wall was one of the NBA's can't-miss up-and-comers, piloting the East's 'Team to Watch'. The rudderless Wizards have since missed the playoffs, hired Scott Brooks, signed Markieff Morris, and maxed-out one of the most oft-injured players in the league; none of which bode well for Wall returning them to relevancy.

601. Thon Maker 
Got drafted at least 15 spots too high; nobody knows how old he is. Sounds safe.

590. Jeremy Lin 

584. Dwight Howard
After leaving yet another city in a blazing shitstorm of acrimony, Howard lands in his hometown with Al Horford's big shoes to fill and a growing body of evidence suggesting he's fallen off significantly.

With the now-rhetorical questions about his character and desire to win still lingering, the ATL cookin' could be exactly what man-child D12 needs. But if history and circumstance are any indicator, he's just setting himself up for the most painful disappointment yet.

568. My Views on "Make Your Own Dream Team" Memes

541. Milwaukee Bucks
They made a dementia-suggesting draft reach for a guy who may or may not be like 40 years old, and largely whiffed on the shooting their offense badly needs. Unless Mirza Teletovic is somehow the key, this could be another long season in Wisconsin. At least they have Giannis.

526. Atlanta Hawks

499. Chicago Bulls
Mildly unclear what's going on here. Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo are two "name players" that will take the ball out of Jimmy Butler's hands (generally a bad thing) and clog any lineup without a Mirotic/McBuckets forward combo to spread the floor. Sorta defeats the purpose of the Derrick Rose trade.

465. Dallas Mavericks
Whiffed on all their major free agency targets and had to resort to massively overpaying Harrison Barnes. On the bright side, they salvaged Andrew Bogut and faded Dirk's retirement, but still not exactly a win for the Mavs.

443. Charlotte Hornets


411. New Orleans Pelicans

387. Detroit Pistons
BOBAN!! Relevant side-note: The Pistons are currently the second-highest-paid roster in the league at $116 million committed next year.

350. Toronto Raptors
Getting priced out of the Bismack Biyombo sweepstakes was a painful inevitability for the Raptors, one they tried to remedy by drafting a guy who apparently can't dunk in the lottery. Biz was one of the NBA's more underrated players before his postseason explosion, and a big hole to patch in their defense.

The DeRozan re-signing is a strong indicator for the Raps (and Canadian basketball in general). Despite Demar's sickening inconsistency in the playoffs, it keeps them competitive. Coming off a summer with some of the World's best coaches on Team USA certainly doesn't hurt him either.

Jared Sullinger gives Toronto a far more competent option than Luis Scola at the four, but combine the Biyombo loss with direct competition improving markedly, and The North will likely have a tougher run at an East Finals repeat.

322. New York Knicks

The Knicks' offseason has been much-trumpeted in many realms of the Internet, but for me it's mainly a wash. Cast into Win-Now Mode by Melo's ticking clock, they've dumped a whole lot of money and hope into two guys - Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah - who've each been paltry shells of their past selves for at least two years. In Rose, they've inherited the only deal signed in 2012 that could possibly suck under the current cap.

D-Rose and Melo's ball-dominance will be an interesting mesh, and even a fully healthy season from Rose and/or Noah would be a mild surprise. Courtney Lee is a good two-way guard and Brandon Jennings will give life to an offense-dormant 2nd unit, but the Knicks' likely fate is still a bottom-tier playoff team. A total sophomore explosion from the Porzingod might be their best chance at a real leap.

302. San Antonio Spurs
Tim Duncan's absence will be a strange concept to absorb; he was the San Antonio Spurs (at least on-court; #Pop) for damn near two decades. There are far worse replacements than Pau Gasol, but the Spurs' bid for West supremacy got dealt a pretty severe blow by a certain free agent. Leading us to...

270. Kevin Durant's Legacy

So as you may or may not have heard, Kevin Durant joined the Golden State Warriors this summer in a decision that loomed above the NBA for months and still shocked everyone out of sheer magnitude. It also created a vicious dichotomy for KD in the Court of Public Opinion; dividing those who harp he took the easy way out, and those who insist he made the best choice for his "legacy".

The reality to a large degree is that Durant did both.

He's put himself in remarkably good position to win multiple titles, and though he's unlikely to snag another MVP, he's right to act in the interest of rings if he wants to be remembered among the all-time greats. And he absolutely does.

Durant saw first hand just how difficult winning a title in a small market is. OKC struck a series of jackpot draft picks unlike any team in recent memory, and still, year after year, ran into either an untimely injury or a historic team. He's hedged his bets accordingly.

But in the process he's set professional basketball in Oklahoma City back a good decade. He's not only leaving a proud franchise he basically birthed from an ugly Seattle exit, but doing so after they came within God inheriting Klay Thompson's body of making the Finals. For the team that beat them.

He's sealed his Thunder's fate among the NBA's all-time 'What If' teams, and probably created a greater philosophical inquiry of his (likely) rings than anyone before him.

245. Phoenix Suns

230. Portland Trailblazers

209. Houston Rockets 

Dwight Howard's departure has to be seen as a net plus. Many metrics pointed to the Rockets being better without him last year, and his pseudo-jovial petulance is a detriment to any team's chemistry.

Meanwhile, they picked up a couple former Pelicans who (when healthy) provide great spacing for James Harden's free-throw forays to the paint. Moreyball may have overpaid for Ryan Anderson, but got reasonable value on Eric Gordon, two guys who fit his system well.

184. Draymond Green's Snapchat Account
Became a powerful source of memes, great parodies and Team USA bonding this summer, if only through unwittingly showing his penis to millions of people.

168. Austin Rivers' Contract
While he continues to be given a healthy leash by having dad as both coach and GM, it says a lot about the state of the NBA offseason that Rivers' 3-year/$35 million deal doesn't seem that ridiculous.

145. Los Angeles Lakers 
As the Lakers' heavy rebuild hits Defcon 2 with the clock whittling away on Jimmy Buss, they've overall had a strong few months. LA's Other Team signed good deals (Luol Deng, Jordan Clarkson) and bad ones (Timofey Mozgov, Yi Jianlian for some reason), but overall take a win on the offseason.

Buss is still a dog to hit his lofty deadline, but the Lakers are now freed from Kobe's oppressive contract, and have a player they can possibly build around in Brandon Ingram. They'll have a decent outlook once someone smarter than Jimmy is spending the money.

115. Memphis Grizzlies

Keeping Mike Conley is massive, and speaks to the loyalty bred from the Grizzlies' culture. And also perhaps that Conley's max under the new cap made him (before LeBron's new deal) the highest-paid player ever.

Gasp-worthy as that may be, it was a victory for the Grizzlies (and small-market franchises) that saved them from a total rebuild in Marc Gasol's prime. It also came as a morality boost after a season in which legions of injuries, and concerns about Robert Pera's ownership style haunted #GNG.

But Memphis also doubled-down and maxed-out Chandler Parsons. While the debate about that expenditure's legitimacy is itself legitimate, Memphis is defiantly refusing to quit. Sure they have virtually no chance of winning a title and will max-out as a 3/4-seed, but they're playing it to the bone. They're the anti-tankers; a refreshing sight in today's NBA.

89. Orlando Magic
So their frontcourt's a little crowded. Adding Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo (more on him in a moment) to the Vucevic/Gordon combo gives Orlando considerable size, depth and the rim protection they've sorely lacked the past few seasons.

The question thus becomes whether the trigger-happy Rob Hennigan is just stockpiling assets for another deal, or actually plans on making this seemingly over-sized rotation work.

71. Philadelphia 76ers
Things are finally, kind of, coming to together for #TheProcess - if only Sam Hinkie were still around to see it:

Philly netted the #1 pick, managed to draft a guy who isn't a center, have an apparently-healthy Joel Embiid, and maintained their mountains of cap room. In fact, the Sixers' biggest concern at this point will be hitting the league's $84 million salary floor next year.

Better yet, with the Nets in utter disarray and no means to better themselves, the Sixers can finally be freed of stigmatization as the NBA's resident eyesore.


63. Joel Embiid

Continues to kill social media, and actually appeared on film playing basketball for the first time in several years.

49. Kent Bazemore
Couldn't have found himself in a better spot, hosting his coming out party over the biggest Contract Year in history, at a time when 3-and-D swingmen are a prime asset in a wing-deprived market.

Bazemore made off huge this summer for a guy who enthusiastically warmed the Warriors' bench 20 months ago, no two ways about it. But of the many sketchy contracts free agents were gifted with this summer, his potential to blossom might be the most realistic.

34. John Leuer
I mean sure, what the hell! 4 years, $42 million! Why not!

29. Solomon Hill

26. The Cleveland Cavaliers
They are the champs and everything, but Golden State just made a power move on them unlike any we've ever seen.

25. Pau Gasol

Getting out of Chicago was enough but landing with the Spurs makes Pau a large winner.


24. DeMarcus Cousins' Trade Odds

The writing has to be on the wall here, with Cousins perpetually perturbed, and the Kings acquiring like 50 centers under an owner who can do literally anything.

The issues of Cousins' petulant demeanor are well-chronicled, but the Nuggets should just ante up, re-unite DMC with Mike Malone, and reap the ensuing benefits.

23. Rasheed Wallace
Everyone knew Dame Lillard would spit nice, but the gully bars that Sheed laid down on the #SoFarGoneChallenge (while driving no less) were one of the summer's best videos.

22. Tristan Thompson
For doing maybe the most Canadian thing ever.

21. Carmelo Anthony
While his team's still not competing for that ever-elusive Finals trip, Melo might've on-the-low sealed his Hall of Fame bid this summer as the first man ever to win three Olympic golds in basketball.

20. Joakim Noah
Had the last two years of his career conveniently ignored by the Knicks during contract offers.

19. Ryan Anderson
He'll fit well in Houston, and 4 yrs/$80 million is very generous for a less-than-healthy one-way gunner whose best years are perhaps behind him.

18. Frank Vogel

17. Kris Dunn


16. Indiana Pacers


Lots of people hated the Vogel departure, despite his inconclusive results with Indiana. He presided
over Pacers teams that both massively over and underachieved, with a clear hallmark of stout defense and offensive deficiency. A Larry Bird team could only suck at scoring for so long.

Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson and Thad Young are all offensive upgrades over their predecessors, and Nate McMillian was likely a good fit as a Vogel replacement. Unless the Pacers' defense completely crumbles without George and Solomon Hill, they'll climb the East standings.

15. Chandler Parsons

14. Utah Jazz
One of the offseason's multi-way winners. They finally found a starting point guard in George Hill; one who won't command the ball too much or be Trey Burke. This still-young squad also benefits from a year of experience, continuity, and one can hope better health.

Count circumstance among the Jazz's fortunes too. With the West in heavy flux below the top-3, Utah could make serious strides up the playoff bracket. Quin Snyder for Coach of the Year; you heard it here first.

13. Ian Mahinmi

12. Pre-Existing Kevin Durant Championship Bets

11. 
The Summer of JR



10. Bismack Biyombo

Five months ago, Bismack Biyombo was a defensive specialist and capable backup, but a limited offensive game had kept him from seeing heavy minutes. He made $3 million last year.

His impact on the Raptors' shaky second-unit defense was one of their brightest spots this season; one that culminated in the most important playoff run they'd ever embarked on. It was there that Jonas Valanciunas was sidelined, and Biyombo vaulted from on-the-low-bench stud to maybe the breakout player of the 2016 Playoffs. His sublime glass-waxing, elite rim protection and impact energy plays were one of the Raptors' few consistent sparks.

While Biz might've already been in line for a slight raise, his value thus skyrocketed - to 4 yrs/$70 million - due to a very timely injury. Biyombo may have just financially benefited more from a teammate's sidelining than any player in history. Hope he's buying Jonas a car or something.

9. Russell Westbrook

While acting in self-interest and getting the most money, Westbrook is now an Oklahoma folk hero for re-upping after Durant bolted. He also has the team to himself now. While his title odds took a massive hit, he can make perhaps the closest run at Oscar Robertson's triple-double-season mark we've seen yet.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sometimes everything just falls into place for a franchise. Take Minnesota, where the often-frail Wolves have landed back-to-back #1 picks, one of whom is a star in the making, the other is already perhaps the single most valuable long-term asset in the NBA.

With the last two Rookies of the Year in tow, the Wolves now have a serious shot at a third with Kris Dunn, making former PG prodigy Ricky Rubio - their highest-paid player - expendable. Minnesota can now potentially clear even more cap space for the future by dealing Pretty Ricky.

Then of course there's the bench upgrade from Sam Mitchell to Tom Thibodeau, which is like replacing a Hungry Man Salisbury Steak with wagyu ribeye. For a team with such young talent, Thibs will be a great source of knowledge, discipline, experience, and most notably - work ethic.

Already League Pass heavyweights, the Wolves only built upon perhaps the league's brightest future.

7. Timofey Mozgov, Allen Crabbe & Tyler Johnson


There will a be an ESPN 30-for-30 made someday about this year's NBA Offseason. About the oceans of money that were set ablaze in a perfect storm of salary influx and a shallow free agency class. Among the deals of particular note that will be highlighted:

Timofey Mozgov, the once-sought low-post brute who regressed all season, eventually falling completely out of the Cavs' rotation. He now makes $16 million/year, or more than any player in the NHL.

Allen Crabbe, the potential breakout 3-and-D wing whom the Nets inked to a restricted 4-year $74 millon script. Portland swallowed the pill and matched. The Blazers now cutting $18.5 million to a backup wing with career averages of 7/2/1 has helped balloon their payroll to a league-high $119 million.

And Tyler Johnson; inconsistent bench guard, also inked by the Nets to a literally vomit-inducing 4-years, $50 million. Unshaken by the Nets' manic spending spree, Pat Riley opened the coffers and matched the back-loaded deal, which gives Johnson a combined $38.5 million over its final two seasons.

Though the potential to redeem these whale contracts exists, these guys are already being paid beyond the apex of their realistic projections. Huge offseason winners.

6. Mike Conley
Much love as I have for Iron Mike, the fact that a 0-time All-Star spent a brief moment as the highest-paid player in NBA history is simply incredible.

5. Boston Celtics
Landing Al Horford was a significant coup for this precocious bunch of scrappers, consolidating their talent and solving their longtime search for a starting center. More significantly, they managed to do it without going over the cap or giving up any of their asset horde, leaving Danny Ainge plenty of ammo to make another blockbuster move. The Celtics are probably already favorites to nab the East's #2 seed.

4. Hassan Whiteside
Was playing in Lebanon two years ago. Just signed a $98 million contract, and could be a franchise cornerstone with the Wade Era now over.


3. LeBron James

LeBron not only got to revel in the spotlight of the greatest Finals performance ever, but gave himself a record contract. The Warriors have dealt a major blow to his Cavs' repeat odds, but this summer was LeBron's Moment in a career littered with so many LeBron Moments.

His career path - "legacy" if you will - isn't hurt that much by the Durant signing either way. If the Warriors beat him in the Finals rubber-match only injury can derail, they had to assemble arguably the greatest team ever to do so. If LeBron somehow emerges from this with another ring though, that's serious G.O.A.T material.

2. Harrison Barnes

I thought the notion of giving Barnes a max deal was incredulous before he came out and projectile vomited all over the Warriors' failed title defense; the kind of gaffe that normally costs a player millions in a contract year.

Mark Cuban knows things about investments that I don't, but the metrics suggest Barnes is overrated as is without the added expectation amid much worse surroundings. Even in an offseason of financial anarchy, how Barnes made off with this much money is unsustainable and sickening.

1. Golden State Warriors
It's still kind of hard to fathom. A team winning 73 games one year, then acquiring likely the 3rd-best player in the NBA for fifteen cents on the dollar.

The Warriors are going to be a terrifying offensive machine that will rack up the easiest buckets we've ever seen against any non-elite defense. It's going to be insulting how routine they'll make it look.


The Death Lineup just became exponentially scarier, with Durant's lethal scoring replacing Barnes' inconsistent shooting, and his length enabling him to cover even more space and bigger bodies on D. Getting Zaza Pachulia on the cheap was great Bogut insurance; with veterans riding them in every-trendy ring hunts (David West really making Ray Allen eat his words) they can fill out a bench to complement the best 7-man rotation ever.

Dub Nation is now very short on rim protection, but that seems trivial in the scope of what's just happened. This team is going to be fucking impossible to defend. It's supremely unlikely they go for a new wins record after last year's playoff semi-burnout, but we're about to witness devastation on a mass level.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Top 9s: The Tank Brigade

Welcome to the Tank Brigade; where the race for professional basketball's worst record is heating up.

Tanking has never been trendier; a shift induced not only by the massive talent pool in next year's Draft, but by a dynamic historical precedent. Not only does it (with very rare exception) take elite talent to win an NBA title - we're talking at least one bonafide Top-10 guy - but with stars aligning in big cities and taking salary cuts to help their teams dodge the cap, it's never been harder for small market/less established teams to land the best players.

The mentality that competing for a low Playoff spot is the League's worst position has never been so prevalent, leading most teams to shoot for the stars, or lie down in the dirt. While the likes of the Thunder and Pacers battle for the Association's best record, there's a more subtle fight in full force. One for the best odds in a gamble to determine a complete gutterball of a season's ultimate worth.

The very worst team stands only a 1 in 4 chance of landing the top pick on a record-based scale, and even a loaded Draft class like the one upon us can have its busts.The Lottery is still very much a gamble. This is degeneracy at its highest stakes; snuffing seasons and making fans wait on a relative dice roll. In a league where owners spent a lockout griping about "competitive parity" just over two years ago.

Some franchises are more or less banking on a lottery miracle, while others have set themselves up nicely for whatever they net in this Draft to join a promising foundation; stockpiling other assets and clearing cap space.

So here are the NBA's Nine worst teams as of today, ranked from worst to first in order of how well they've managed through this whole "Tanking" thing:

9. New York Knicks
Woops.

So this season hasn't been great for the Knicks; the kind that's swiftly gone from alarming, to laughable, to downright tragic.

Their presence here is dubious for any number of reasons, from their Playoff ambitions and gaudy payroll, to the future picks they stupidly dealt, crippling their rebuilding effort. The Knicks will have no first-round pick this season, or in 2016; saved by the Stepien Rule from burying themselves deeper.

They've also traded a slew of second-rounders, to make sage, competitively-priced acquisitions like Andrea Bargnani. This was a total dud of the contract that the Raptors were just praying to unload on some GM who, like most of America, had mostly ignored them and didn't know just how bad Bargs was. Then along comes New York, offering to give them three draft picks, along with cheaper, shorter-term deals, to take him off their hands.

They literally yanked their own safety net before nose-diving down the East standings, and now face an offseason of many questions, with no idea where to begin on an answer.

8. New Orleans Pelicans 
The Pels bought up their own stock prematurely, and currently owning the NBA's second-longest losing streak, are cruising towards an early summer, likely with no redemption in sight.

Like the Knicks, they mortgaged their Lottery equity for current assets, figuring their team to be better and the pick much lower. Sure enough, as soon as you could say "Point Guard Injury Epidemic" and "Tyreke Evans was a waste of money", the Pelicans tilted the scales of the Jrue Holiday deal heavily.

Unless they luck out and land in the top-5, Philly will get the Pels' first-rounder, ironically in exchange for the very player whose absence (along with Ryan Anderson) made this pick become so attractive.

So far, we've learned that Tanking is mostly sub-optimal strategy when you've given away your Draft picks and are among the worst teams by accident.


7. Sacramento Kings
That so much of Sacramento's next season lies in Rudy Gay's $19million player option is a mildly terrifying predicament, especially for a rebuilding team that gave up a bunch of expiring deals for him.

Working in their favor is that Gay has been playing arguably the best ball of his career, able to dominate the rock and shoot with no conscience on a team with low expectations. This might lean him towards putting himself on the market now while his stock's high; locking up another deal before he's dealt to a stricter team ('Rudy Gay's Expiring Contract' would be the most-floated piece in trade rumors next year) and his shot selection becomes an international punchline again.

With Boogie beasting, and a reasonable cap scenario long-term, this could be a solid team in a few years if the pieces come together properly, but so far the movement under new owner Vivek Ranadive has been mostly lateral.

6. Utah Jazz
The Jazz have done an outstanding job of clearing cap room and producing a 2013-14 on-court product that would surely suck enough to get a high Lotto pick.

The problem for them is they may have done it too well.

This team has few attractive pieces, with Enes Kanter, and to a lesser extent Derrick Favors, failing to make much of a leap in their expanded roles, and meshing poorly together as a tandem. Trey Burke will remain, as will Gordon Hayward (for a year, at least) but it's hardly enough to convince the kind of talent Utah's banking on to come spend most of their year in a trendy, must-visit NBA locale like Salt Lake City.

I'm predicting a Jazz offseason that exemplifies why not all cap space is created equal, and leaves them short on the Free Agent Haul.

5. Boston Celtics
The Celtics' season has been somewhat confounding. The two apparent objectives this year were: 1) Trade Rajon Rondo, and 2) Lose as many games as possible. The former didn't happen, and the latter only did after a counter-productively hot start under Brad Stevens.

The good news is that Stevens was an ace hire, and that several Celtics pieces - most notably Jared Sullinger - have seen a spike in value, both to the team and on the trade market. The bad news is that they still have to pay Gerald Wallace $20million over the next two years, and the continuing Rondo uncertainty makes their future very hard to define.

4. L.A. Lakers
The Lakers' range of possibilities for next season is extremely wide:

They currently have over half their cap next year (roughly $35million) invested in two guys who've each played less than ten games this year. That said, the latest round of Steve Nash retirement rumors seem more well-founded than in the past, possibly shaving $10m off the tab.

Since a very large chunk of their roster is off the books this summer, the Lakers (if Nash does hang 'em up) could have safely over $30million in cap space, along with a decent-at-worst Lottery pick.

How all that potential comes together is obviously a tricky variable; TinselTown has always been a favorite destination for big names, but there's no telling just how willing Player X will be to team with Kobe or commit to a rebuild.

With such a large window, the Lakers are sure to come back reloaded, but they only have to rewind their franchise one year to see how throwing a bunch of talent together can be an unmitigated disaster.

3. Milwaukee Bucks
John Hammond is a genius.

I don't say this in any facetious regard; I really think the guy's a mastermind. Last summer, the Bucks were staring an obvious rebuild in the face, with senile owner Herb Kohl demanding that the team stay "competitive" (read: pick in the late Lottery or get swept by Indiana/Miami).

Instead of condemning them to middling mediocrity, Hammond had a plan; he knew his owner was being an idiot, but he didn't want to get himself fired. So he went about his mandate under the appearance of legitimacy, inking deals and making trades that seemed aimed at the short-term, but weren't making Milwaukee any better . He even coerced sports' trendiest website into exaggerating his team's worth in their season preview.

Then when the curtains came up, the Bucks confirmed everyone's suspicions that they couldn't score. At all. Hammond then hired local goons to provoke new-signed defensive backbone Larry Sanders into injuring himself in a drunken nightclub meltdown. As a result, they own the NBA's worst record (/best Lottery odds), two promising prospects in John Henson and Giannis Antetokounmpo (it's his name, get over it), and little long-term financial commitment.

2. Orlando Magic
Few teams made being bad look as easy this season as the Magic, who have a bottom-3 record in the East and plenty going in their favor:

- they have two legitimate foundation pieces (Nik & Vic); they're the only serious tankers who can say that.

- their whole team is bathing in upside; a roster to which they'll add a potential stud in late June

- they have oodles of cap space, and play in Orlando, which between the sunshine, Disney World, and the lack of state income tax, is relatively prime Free Agent real estate


All added up, this should be a pretty quick turnaround for the Magic, which after Dwight Howard hijacked their franchise for 18 months, should come as comfort to their fans.

1. Philadelphia 76ers
THIS is how you suck. The Sixers have by far the largest pot of gold of at the end of this season's shit-rainbow.

First they snaked likely future-All Star Michael Carter-Williams late in last year's Lottery and had him miss a convenient amount of games. They'll get continued growth moving forward from a guy nobody thought would be this good. Then they whittled their payroll down to the bare bones; with somewhere between 17-32million on tap for next year, they'll be the least-constricted team in this summer's spending spree. All the while, losing almost methodically by playing a frenetic pace with a D-League roster.

The plot thickens with the oncoming arrival of potentially game-changing defensive center Nerlens Noel, along with (and here's the best part) not one, but two Lotto picks from the much-ogled 2014 Class. Not only do the 76ers have their own selection, but that of the Pelicans in the highly likely event it lands outside the Top 5.

After the Bynum disaster, the floor fell out beneath the Sixers quickly, but this team has enough going for it beyond this season that they'll likely wind up reaping the greatest spoils of the Tank Brigade.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Putting the "Dead" in Deadline

The Trade Deadline came and went last week; a date that had built up with blockbuster potential for months "climaxed" dully with the seemingly inevitable dumping of Danny Granger's contract.

Despite an army of franchises actively shopping attractive assets, and others seeking to shake things up, the market may have over-played itself. Many teams' asking prices were reportedly too high, leaving most parties at the trade table favoring the upcoming loaded Draft and Free Agent classes to make their moves.

So what now for the teams that seemed destined to make moves, but hesitated to pull the trigger? Were they wise in waiting? What can they expect going forward? Let's see which GMs have screwed themselves, and which should come out on top:

Boston Celtics 
Rajon Rondo still being a Celtic is among the more bizarre aftermath of the Deadline, with Danny Ainge suddenly holding onto a guy he'd been shopping for years, at what seemed like the most logical time to finally deal him.

The irony of Ainge's decision gets diluted when you consider that Rondo's actually a very good fit for a young team searching for its identity through a re-build, as a versatile cog for a smart coach who's a whiz with quirky lineups. Keeping him can't be an awful decision; he's a Top 15-ish player, just turned 28, and his market value could rise if Boston suddenly seems less keen on dumping him.

It's one of those hands that's hard to misplay; Boston might not have liked offers that came their way, but being left to rebuild with one of the NBA's best point guards isn't a Saw game, which Ainge may be realizing.

Toronto Raptors
Few GMs in pro sports history have developed reputations as movers and shakers as quickly and astutely as Ujiri. After ousting the Raptors' two ugliest contracts in moves that showed immediate + returns, Masai was rumored to be in talks around a deal for Kyle Lowry for most of this season.

Masai's inability to move Lowry is a minor disappointment, but hardly a fatal wound for Toronto. The reality is that Lowry's trade value has never been this high, and likely never will be again, so unless he's their point guard going forward, the time to bail was now. His superb play this season will absolutely earn him more money next year, and it's unclear if he'll be as fit and motivated with his new deal locked up.

Masai's track record might even be hurting his cause, with at least one (confirmed) case of a team unwilling to be "fleeced" by him again. Regardless, few people in NBA front offices - likely only Daryl Morey - understand trading assets like Ujiri, and with virtually every player in Toronto's rotation playing up their own stock this year, he'll have nice pieces to work with, even if Lowry is signs elsewhere.

Houston Rockets
Speaking of Daryl Morey, his own shrewdness has come back to bite him in the ass.

Two years ago, Morey snaked the criminally under-utilized Omer Asik from the Bulls with a "poison pill" contract that saw his originally meager salary triple in its upcoming final year.

In the meantime, Asik's been one of the NBA's most improved players, and best defensive centers, but Morey's attempt to pass the buck (literally) on Asik's bloated remaining year came undone. Teams were wary of the looming salary boom, and Morey's habit of usually being way smarter than the guy on the other end of the phone.

And so, after the passing of several team-mandated deadlines, and finally the League's, Omer Asik is still on the Houston Rockets, in a limited reserve role, openly unhappy, and due almost $15 million next season.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Among the League's relative disappointments this season (remember, this is still largely a David Kahn team), the Wolves are seemingly under pressure to release Kevin Love from the pack.

A continually visibly unhappy superstar whose contract expires after next year, Love will eventually leave Minnesota, but they can decide whether on their terms or his. The lack of action last week only hurts their rebuild timetable; it's not as though there won't still be teams lining up for him in the offseason, when offices with room to maneuver might be more willing to make a big play for a superstar.

The Wolves need to begin to treat this with urgency though. Love can't remain undealt going into next season; it will delay the inevitable, shroud their team in uncertainty, and give opposing GMs more leverage as his departure draws closer. This is just like ripping off a Band-Aid; it will hurt a lot less if done quickly.

L.A. Lakers 
Everyone and their grandmother on Twitter spent the weeks leading up to the Deadline suggesting that Pau Gasol was about to be dealt, but the Lakers were unlikely to get as much value out of Gasol as they could this summer.

The Lakers are unloading most of their payroll in July, and can either re-sign Gasol at a significant rebate via 'Bird Rights', or let him walk and have eight figures in extra cap room. That cap room is intrinsically worth more to the Lakers than most franchises; they're able to attract top-tier talent easily and will never have to overpay someone to join them.

Already armed with a fresh Spending License, and a very good shot at a high Lottery pick, this was probably good spot for the Lakers to bide their time.

New York Knicks
Carmelo's still a Knick, and the odds of him re-signing in a few months rest somewhere between New York's chances of making the Playoffs, and having a Lottery pick in this year's Draft.

Knicks fans, my continued sympathies.


Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Putting the NY in Anthony

Carmelo Anthony is at what many would call a "crossroads" in his now decade-old NBA career.

Blessed with talent that saw him run step-for-step to the finish of an ROY race with a player currently being legitimately questioned as the best ever, Anthony has faded somewhat amid his star-studded Draft class, perceived by many as "only a scorer", "a me-first player", "he hasn't grown up", "he doesn't make his teammates better", or most damning "he doesn't win".

Just as those perhaps jaded reputations appeared ready to manifest themselves - coming off Anthony's most disappointing season, this was seen by many as his year to put up or shut up as an elite NBA player - Melo came out and beasted the season's opening quarter, legitimately putting his name in the MVP debate for the first time in years by leading the Knicks to a 23-10 mark heading into last night's home showdown with the Celtics. He was playing more inspired defense, passing more, playing within the flow of the game and attacking from the inside/out as defenses and the needs of his team dictated. More importantly, Melo was having fun, feeding off his teammates, and winning; he was beginning to look like a leader.

As most of you probably know by now, things didn't generally go very well for the Knicks last night, for three reasons:

1) They let an aging Celtics team employ their just-as-aging bullying tactics against them, gaining a mental upper edge (in what is now an absolute rivalry) through physical play and merciless Kevin Garnett-fueled vitriol to offset the absence of their best player.

2) They allowed said Celtics team - who have looked quite lost for most of this season - to beat them on their home floor.

3) Following the game, Melo decided to try and confront the Celtics (it appears Garnett in particular) not only outside the locker room, but on the way to their team bus, in an apparent attempt to show them that he's either "hard as fuck" or a very sore loser, which regardless of intent is bad for its own set of reasons:

a) It was videotaped, all over ESPN and Twitter within the hour, and surely drawing tons of negative attention to the Knicks, and in general the NBA (any time "police were on hand as a precaution" to get a basketball team to its bus, people tend to look at it negatively).

b) Emperor Palpatine, sorry David Stern in his increasing senility will probably suspend Melo for 15 games and fine him $5 million as he continues his "Fuck You, I Made You" Retirement Tour, harshly penalizing anyone who's dared defy his Orwellian reign.

c) This says a lot about who Carmelo Anthony still is. And frankly, it's not good. While he's putting it together on the court this year, a childish mentality still prevails: "It was like being in the schoolyard" recalls one witness.

Melo certainly hasn't helped himself much over the years.

This incident adds itself to portfolio that would make any self-respecting professional (or amateur criminal) blush: a vicious sucker-punch in the middle of an in-game skirmish followed by his running away like a scared rabbit, a DUI arrest following his worst game of the season, an appearance in a DVD bootlegged in his native Baltimore that advocated violence against those who co-operated with police, a confirmed affair with a teammates' wife, a well-publicized bar fight with someone approaching his own wife, and an arrest at an airport for marijuana possession that was cleared when his friend "claimed he owned the bag" (now go ahead, try and figure out which of those colorful moments I just made up).

This isn't a matter of basketball; the man's clearly very talented. It's a matter of being a man at all; not acting like a child. It's realizing that you're not in the schoolyard anymore, but on a professional sports team, hell, in the highest-profile city in the World, and that people are tired of asking "when will he just get it?".

Melo's spent most of his career cultivating an image of on-court selfishness, strongly buoyed by his off-court antics. When things seemed to turn the corner basketball-wise this season, the evident hope was that he'd, for lack of more eloquent deliveries, stop being such an idiot. I'm sure he thought he was being "hard" last night, letting the Celtics know he wouldn't back down or be rattled, but he showed not only that he is very rattled by a not-even-midseason loss, but that he's not yet ready to put the team above himself. He might've looked like a leader the past couple months, but this is hardly evidence of it.

What a truly effective leader does in that situation is highly subjective and dependent on those he leads, but pretty much universally dubious would be to draw more attention to the loss - and the whole organization - in a negative light through a selfish act that drums up a whole new round of questions about your character.

This obviously comes at an inopportune time for New York, who seemed to be in the midst of a dream season, and are now seeing the first of seemingly increasingly inevitable signs that something about the Knicks will come undone, be it Patrick Ewing's knees, Isiah Thomas' sanity, James Dolan's chequebook, or Michael Jordan's sense of mercy.

For Melo's Conscience not to add itself to that list of reprehensible Manhattan basketball terms, he needs to put himself in perspective here; realize the importance of his behavior off the court, as well as on it. His reputation is on the line, and even if that doesn't worry him, the balance of millions of dollars, the hopes of millions of fans, and the fate of a franchise is. He needs to embody a more mature mentality, one that focuses on beating KG on the court instead of off it, or at the very least resolves things in their next meeting instead of in the parking lot. This team wants to win a championship, and that takes more than what Melo's demonstrated thus far.

Carmelo Anthony has to realize once and for all that the team - much like this situation he very easily could've walked away from - is bigger than himself.