Showing posts with label NBA Finals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA Finals. Show all posts

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Final Thoughts: The Toronto Raptors are NBA Champions


Read the second part of that headline again. Maybe a few more times after that, if you're like me and the reality hasn't entirely set in yet, even days later.

For the better part of two decades, the Toronto Raptors were the NBA's unwanted bastard stepchild. The lone Canadian franchise (RIP Vancouver) had difficulty both procuring and retaining top-level talent, while shooting themselves in the foot with myriad miscues, both on the court and in the front office.

Even when they finally became competitive, the Raptors plateaued as a regular-season tease; fodder for LeBron James to demoralize come playoff time. The notion of this franchise ever truly breaking through grew increasingly pipe-dreamy.

Last summer, after yet another postseason collapse, Trade Jedi Masai Ujiri had seen enough, pulling the plug on two franchise cornerstones. While fans revolted at the time, the results began showing immediately. The trade aged extremely well, suddenly, shockingly culminating in an NBA title. It happened almost too quickly to seem real.

As both an NBA fan and Canadian, there's a lot to decompress at the end of this ridiculous journey. This Raptors playoff run was an overwhelming swell of Northern patriotism and anxiety-inducing basketball. From four bounces vs the Sixers, to four straight wins vs the Bucks, and now denying this Warriors dynasty their fourth title, it was a simply thrilling ride.

As the entire country continues to come to grips with this serious rift in conventional thinking - the Raptors are NBA Champs -  here are, in abstract order of importance, five thoughts about the 2019 NBA Finals:

- Before we dive in, a special shoutout to  the entire country of Canada for their absolute outpouring of Raptors support. Firmly declaring ourselves as not just a hockey country, we embodied the 'We The North' credo with unbridled passion and enthusiasm. 

From Jurassic Park, to the multiple clones it spawned, bar-packing viewing parties, droves of social media support, Nav Bhatia, and everything in between, Canada ensured we made history in the loudest way possible. 

The first non-US NBA title is sure to be crucial piece of the NBA's global growth puzzle; a historical footnote with great rippling impact. As a lifelong basketball fan in a country that largely didn't care about basketball, this was a beautiful moment to witness. - 


5. You Have to be Happy For the Raptors
I mean, come on. You're not going to find a much more deserving unit, most of whom are earning their first ring.

Kyle Lowry has been Toronto's heart and soul since 2012; a pint-sized bulldog who slowly fought his way to stardom, spent years battling playoff demons, and had an absolutely dominant game to seal the championship.

Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet forced their way into NBA relevance from the obscurity of the G-League; underdogs evolved fully into alphas.

Marc Gasol was a consummate professional and teammate; a weathered playoff soldier who showed up, went to work, fit the system and - much like Rasheed Wallace on the 03-04 Pistons - raised this team's ceiling to the max.

Serge Ibaka witnessed first-hand the tragic demise of one of the NBA's greatest potential superteams. Him getting a ring seems karmically correct.

Patrick McCaw just three-peated.

Nick Nurse essentially won Dwane Casey a Coach of the Year award last season, and proved his chops by getting more creative with this roster than Casey was ever capable of. As a rookie, he out-coached Brett Brown and Mike Budenholzer, escaping the toughest Eastern Conference in years.

And Kawhi Leonard, whether he stays or goes, put on a simply all-time playoff performance.

Both The Ringer and ESPN's Zach Lowe have posited the extreme unlikeliness of this roster's origin story leading to a championship. In that, there also lies much validity that this team was shrewdly constructed, and played their hearts out, both this season and preceding it.

They've toppled the NBA's evil monolith, and no other would-be underdog could've made for a better foil.

4. Injuries are No Excuse
A lot of people already are - and will continue to for years - mark this title with an asterisk. They'll say that Golden State at full strength was clearly the better team; that Toronto "got lucky". They're right, but also very wrong.

Injuries are an inherent part of the sport; they can strike any team at any time. Yes, this particular timing was extremely unfortunate for Golden State, but it's impossible to fault Toronto for putting themselves in this position.

On several levels, I feel deeply for Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. Both these guys were on the precipice of basketball immortality, and are now left at devastating crossroads. Durant pushed himself to perhaps the ultimate ceiling of a player's urgency to return, and paid the ultimate price. Thompson was simply playing out of his mind, and all but sealed his team's fate on a freak landing.

It's difficult however to feel much for the Warriors' organization. This roster took their first title in shockingly similar fashion; a 6-game win over Cleveland sans Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in 2015. Since then, they've had likely the best run of injury-free variance among any perennial playoff team, particularly when you factor in number of games played.

Would Golden State have beaten the Raptors at full strength? Very likely. But would they have beaten a Cleveland team whose 2nd and 3rd men weren't Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellevadova? Would they have even made the Finals in 2018 if Chris Paul hadn't missed games 6 and 7 of the WCF (both Warriors wins)?

After four years of good-to-impeccable luck in the health department, it's very tough - perhaps even hypocritical - for any pundit or Warriors fan to play the injury card here.

3. Masai Ujiri is a Fucking Boss
The man is pretty much unimpeachable. Not only does he have gargantuan cojones, but apex instinct and cunning. This title is the result of perhaps the most underrated five-year run by a GM in NBA history.

Masai built this roster's entire rotation from shrewd trades and draft steals. It's been famously trumpeted: Toronto's roster houses zero lottery picks; unheard of for a champion. He was forced to be relentlessly creative, while also managing assets cautiously. It's perhaps the perfect blueprint for a small-market team to follow.

Ujiri is a straight up predator who hunts vulnerable franchises (Spurs, Grizzlies, Knicks several times over), leveraging their sense of urgency to extract his will. He's always underpaid for better players (Leonard, Gasol, Ibaka), and gotten Toronto exactly what it needed.

Masai Ujiri's vision and ambition were major turning points in the Raptors' franchise arc. Upon his arrival, the team immediately began their ascent from NBA doormats to fringe contenders. It's fitting that his biggest gamble has now reaped them the greatest reward. Speaking of which:

2. It was a Fun Season with Kawhi Leonard
The decision to trade a franchise icon for a one-year rental on the NBA's most enigmatic superstar must not have been taken lightly. Especially with Kawhi coming off a season-long injury/standoff with the Spurs, this was one hell of a dice-roll.

But the Raptors hit straight sevens. They immediately surrounded him with complementary talent. They allowed him to routinely break offense and run his weirdly-efficient brand of iso-ball. They spent the entire season delicately considering his long-term health (Load Management FTW). They showed him a city (and country) of rabid fans who worship him and are basically proposing to let him exist as a human for free if he stays. And they won an NBA title.

Likewise, Kawhi gave Toronto his all. He played at a near-MVP level in the regular season. He said all the right things. He showed modicums of personality for the first time ever. He was just legendary throughout the playoffs. And he won an NBA title.

It's impossible to know exactly what is going through Kawhi Leonard's head as he enters free agency; where his priorities lie and what his intentions might be. His decision is easily the most daunting variable an NBA champion has faced since Michael Jordan's (second) retirement in 1998.

With Golden State's future now in very serious peril, there's (gasp) potential for the Raptors to contend for years if Kawhi stays. Worst-case, they're left with a solid young core, and extremely good long-term cap sheet outlook.

But regardless of the outcome, both parties involved in this could-be divorce couldn't possibly have done more for the other this year.

And yes, even this one season of Kawhi beyond justifies the DeRozan trade.

1. This Was an All-Time NBA Finals

The 2019 NBA Finals were as much narrative, storylines, historical potential, uncertainty, emotional oscillation and brutally competitive basketball as you could possibly fit into six games. Based on that alone, they're an instant classic; perhaps not on par with 2013 or 2016, probably just a tier below.

But we've yet to see these Finals' greatest impact. Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are now at ultimate career crossroads, faced both with high-stakes free agency decisions, and devastating injuries. Where they sign, and how fully they recover, could re-shape the NBA's power balance for years to come, possibly at the expense of Golden State's dynasty.

The future of the Finals MVP also hangs in the balance, and could bolster or burden an entire country's interest in the NBA. It was always assumed Leonard was a goner, but him remaining in the Big Smoke could crush several teams' free-agency plans. It would also set new precedent for Toronto; and finally shake their maybe-legitimate insecurity about their market status.

Leonard, Durant and Thompson will all likely be crucial cogs in the ongoing war against regular season attrition. The possibility of a shorter season continues to loom, with stars being sat at record rates and diluting both quality of play and fan experience. Leonard's health - after sitting out 20 games - and Durant & Thompson's lack thereof, are now all inflection points as the debate rages on.

There is also the undecided fate of Ujiri, who had the Washington Wizards offer him the Prince Ali package literally before the champagne had even been sprayed. The unprecedented deal offers ownership stake incentives, and would place a man with far-reaching global ambition in, by far, the most opportune NBA city.

(In related news, Ujiri is also being charged with battery against an Oakland sheriff's deputy, after initially being denied on-court access following Game 6's conclusion)

In the end, history was made, both with Canada's first title, and the Warriors somehow being toppled, in the most impactful way possible.

The Finals themselves were both jarring and inspirational on so many levels. They could also end up echoing loudly enough to change the game for years to come. We've witnessed something profound, but its true magnitude can't yet be comprehended.

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Rubber Soul: Cavs-Warriors Part III


So we've finally arrived at a 2017 Finals matchup that was preordained the moment Kevin Durant joined the dark side.

After a quasi-inconsequential regular season, we were treated to the least suspenseful playoffs in recent memory, hurt not only by the obviousness of its destination, but everything from Toronto's indifference to Zaza Pachulia's defensive fundamentals.

We can lament what could've been over the past few months, but instead let's focus on the legendary potential of what's about to unfold in front of us.

To start, we're going to see a Finals rubber match for the first time in history. Never happened. Not even in the multiple epochs of Celtic-Laker rivalries (they've squared off in back-to-back years on four separate occasions). So that's pretty cool, if not slightly redundant.

The perpetual battle has spawned some not-so-awesome sentiment between these teams, which will make for peak intensity, and increased potential for hilarious animosity-fueled antics (especially when the likes of JR Smith and Javale McGee are involved).

This epic rivalry should also inspire great basketball porn from two simply remarkable teams. The symphony of offensive destruction - orchestrated by likely the NBA's three biggest superstars - should be a classic.

So let's get the obvious out of the way first: YES the Cavaliers do have a chance in this series, just not an incredibly good one.

Golden State completely decimated the West bracket, sporting not only a flawless record, but the highest point differential in playoff history; they certainly look unbeatable. That said, who could've realistically challenged them? The Blazers were a .500 team (#blowoutfodder). The Jazz were (obviously) below full-strength and couldn't have hoped to score with GSW. The Spurs became the first team ever to lose a playoff series while being up 23 in Game 1. The Warriors have been tested very poorly thus far.

The Cavs pose the first serious threat that Golden State has seen all season. After cruising through their schedule like an Easy Rider scene, they'll get their first taste of Fury Road, though it's unclear just how rough things will get for them.

We know that theoretically Golden State should be heavily favored. After all, they likely could've won the title last year if Draymond Green didn't bag-tag LeBron, but still added the NBA's 2nd-best player anyway. Instead of examine what the Warriors need to do to win (show up, play basketball, don't get injured or suspended), let's look at what factors might help the Cavs pull this off:



Defend the Land


The big question obviously is whether the Cavs' defense - which looked suspect for large chunks of this season - can withstand perhaps the best offensive team ever. At first glance it seems like a hard "no", but Cleveland has a few cards to play here.

First off is LeBron; a mirror-image of Draymond Green in his ability to matchup with virtually anyone defensively, and snuff a variety of attacks. They'll be getting Bron's 100% effort on D for likely the first time all year, which could have an immense impact.

Liable defenders Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have both visibly raised their effectiveness vs. Golden State. Tristan Thompson is also a great insurance policy against the Death Lineup; a rim protector who can switch on pick & rolls, and close out on perimeter players among the best bigs in the league. Steph Curry will not be doing this to him.

Last June, Cleveland did a stellar job of closing the perceived defensive gap between these teams, holding the Dubs to 99.9ppg, while posting similar turnover%, true shooting% and d-rating. That will prove tougher this year, but to suggest the Cavs won't improve their D for this series could be dubious.

Pray for Klay to Stay Down
Also decent news for the Cavs' D is that Klay Thompson is mired in one of the worst offensive stretches of his career. Thompson averaged 22.3 ppg on .468 from the field this season. Last year's playoffs saw him post 24.3 on .444. This postseason, those numbers have plummeted to 14.4 on .383. You certainly can't be leaving him - he can erupt at a moment's notice - but against an attack where Curry and Durant have to be your focus, not having Klay On Fire punish slow rotations is a huge advantage. An off game or two from Thompson could be costly enough.

Test Iguodala
Containing LeBron James is a very relative term, and it's not a great sign for the Warriors that their main means of guarding him is dealing with a bum knee. Not only will a hobbled or absent Andre Iguodala stretch the Warriors that much thinner on D, but will force either Durant or Green to spend the bulk of their minutes on James, burning max effort and potentially risking foul trouble.

Iggy says his knee is "good" (really, what else would he say?) but he'll need to be at his best vs what has all the makings of an apex LeBron performance. Having LBJ attacking his lateral movement (more drives, fewer 3s) could expose weakness and force the Dubs to adjust.

Win the Grit N Grind Battle

One of the biggest keys to Cleveland's win last year was exerting both a physical and mental edge on the suddenly-shook Warriors. The Cavs were running Curry into pick-and-rolls on every possible possession; throwing him into hard screens and physical switches. They were waxing glass with an added nastiness, bodying perimeter movement, and - most valuably - getting inside the heads of their best opponents.

Granted Curry isn't hurt this year, but the same beat-em-up grind can take him off his game. Draymond Green is every bit the same liability if provoked. Zaza Pachulia's thuggish antics will be under the tightest of scrutiny. And the Warriors - even with their pristine playoff record - come into this series still wrestling with demons of the 3-1 collapse, and LeBron quite literally testing them by himself in 2015. Saying they're vulnerable mentally isn't really an overstatement.

Let Mike Brown Live
While coaching the Warriors is more or less cruise control, there's no doubt that they'll miss Steve Kerr, from whom Mike Brown is a reasonable downgrade on the bench. While the Warriors' D - Brown's specialty - will be their main edge in this series, he scores demerits in almost every other key attribute, from in-game adjustments to offensive creativity and motivational appeal. There's a reason why he flamed out in three consecutive head coaching gigs of sharply decreasing length.

A contested playoff series is an on-the-fly battle of wits between coaches, and thus far there's been no example of how Brown responds if this team is threatened. The Finals aren't exactly the time to be figuring those things out, perhaps the only downside of their total blitzkrieg in the West.

Beat the Warriors at Their Own Game
Any team that hopes to beat Golden State over seven games had better be packing heavy artillery, having to out-gun a team that's averaging a ridiculous 118ppg. Their numbers are vaulted slightly by their massacre of the Kawhi-less Spurs: 124.5ppg on .538 and .406 from three. Perhaps the greatest testament to Kawhi's defensive value, the league's #1 D was gruesomely flayed without him.

Meanwhile, the Cavs played the Celtics largely without their worst defender, facing a tough matchup and still dropping 120ppg on .534 and .436. For the Playoffs, they're averaging only 1.5ppg fewer than the Warriors, arguably against tougher overall defense (GSW got complete walks vs the D of 2/3 opponents thus far), while shooting an outrageous 43.5% from long range, hitting 2.5 more per game than the Warriors. They can put numbers on the board in a hurry.

It was long posited that Golden State couldn't be beaten in a shootout series. But the Cavs, having finally flipped "The Switch", look ready to challenge that notion.

Have a LeBron Moment

Much as the Warriors have an array potential gamebreaking stars, the Cavs have LeBron. He's the one human capable of dominating a basketball game in more ways than anyone in history. He's playing some of the best ball of his career right now. And the once-mocked possibility of being mentioned as the G.O.A.T is very much in play for him.

The crescendo towards this series suggests, both in narrative and basketball precedent, that we're about to witness LeBron's piece de résistance. Not only has he never faced greater motivation than to crush the Warriors in this fabled grudge match and enter the Jordan debate, but LeBron has a lengthy history of exceeding big expectations.

Excluding the 2011 Finals - which any rational person can accept as an outlier that will never repeat itself - King James has managed to rise beyond pretty much every occasion, and this shouldn't be any exception.




While there are a number of catalysts for Cleveland to pull off four wins, several of them will likely have to happen at once for the Cavs to prevail. Golden State has an on-paper edge on both sides of the ball, only one of which can really be overcome. Cleveland cracked Boston's rotation-heavy pressure, but the Warriors are longer, better built to stop LeBron, and will have Draymond at peak badass. This team also has another level to attain offensively if Klay Thompson wakes up, at which point the rain might be too much.

It's frustrating that the Warriors are likely going to be validated for concocting a team so unfairly. Golden State benefitted from extremely good fortune on numerous counts, the Durant signing seemingly so flukey and greasy that the league immediately introduced measures to prevent it from happening again. Still, the Warriors pulled it off, and will carve their own niche in the NBA's annals. They'll either be remembered among the greatest teams ever, or as the team LeBron beat to become perhaps the greatest player ever. The stakes could not be higher.

If this series ran 100 times, the Cavs project to win roughly 25-28 of them (based on an advanced algorithmic system that exists only as a front for me just guessing).

Over one series? WARRIORS IN SIX. 

Monday, June 16, 2014

Team First - The Spurs Win Again

Last year's NBA Finals Review was one of the most difficult pieces I've ever written.


Difficult, not only in what it attempted to do - attribute merit and blame to a series that was far too close for either to hold much weight - but through the chilling afterglow felt by anyone who enjoys watching basketball. It was hard enough to come to terms with just what had happened, let alone admit it was over, or try to make reason out of it.

This year is a little different. There was no seven-game marathon, no high-stakes game of Adjustment Tag between Erik Spoelstra and Gregg Popovich, no violent swings that made us re-think who was favored about 200 times, and certainly nothing even remotely approaching the excitement of Game 6. This year it was simple: The better team won, and it wasn't even close.


These Finals were appropriately emblematic of the NBA's dominant trend this year: the immense divide in overall quality between the East and West. Miami looked poised coming into this series, playing confident two-way ball and getting the level out of Dwyane Wade that was glaringly absent this time last year. What too many people dismissed, perhaps myself included, was how little resistance Miami had; the Bobcats with their best player injured, the SNBA All-Stars, and finally a team that made the East Finals despite a several-month-long meltdown.

It was a different story out West; San Antonio faced a tougher foe in the first round than Miami had all postseason, and while the head-start Serge Ibaka's injury gave them in Round 3 helped swing their win, there was no questioning the Spurs were a machine. A finely-tuned, horsepower-loaded beast on high-octane, low-viscosity fuel; its parts worked seamlessly (that word gets overused in sports writing, but in this case it's almost an understatement).


The Spurs' execution on offense - all season really, but especially amid the pressure, emotion, strain, and competitiveness of the Finals - was as close to flawless team basketball as we've seen in today's NBA. 100 years from now, this game tape could be used to teach kids how to play the 'right way'. This was Gregg Popovich's 9th Symphony, his Flu Game, his The Chronic; his masterpiece.

The culmination of The System's evolution couldn't have been timed better. Not only did the Spurs get sweet revenge after last year's - as Phil Jackson put best - 'mind-numbing loss', but dealt us a brutally visceral reminder in this age of 'Big 3s' they inadvertently helped breed, that this is still a team game. Miami's stars took what many see as shortcuts to their places in history, and were ironically denied the all-important three-peat by a well-rounded roster that was everything people hated the Heat for lacking.

Lacking is more or less the word that describes Miami's whiff of a Finals. Everyone who doesn't wear #6 on their team came up short far more often than they could afford against the Spurs. "Follow my lead" LeBron famously said before Game 5. He led, but the whole "follow" part got screwed up a bit.

The simplest way to break this series down from the Heat's perspective is that when James channeled God Mode and took over completely in a way no other player alive can (sorry, KD) - as he did in the first six minutes last night and the second half of Game 2 - they could compete. Those brief runs of truly unique dominance were the only times Miami led in this series, and the only stretches where the Spurs didn't seem in complete control.

The rest of their team's performance was an insult to LeBron's all-around brilliance. Dwyane Wade was unacceptably bad after saving himself most of the year for this stretch run. Chris Bosh faded in and out of an offensive rhythm, and wasn't attacking the way a player of his caliber can and should. Super Mario played like someone spiked his mushroom with quaaludes. The team was at standstills on offense, missing open looks when they seldom came, and failing to rotate on D with the quickness and precision that in theory made them so dangerous against the Spurs.

Regardless of how flat Miami was, part of the credit - or maybe most of it - still lies with San Antonio, who executed so f***ing well, exploiting every single opening the Heat gave them. Gregg Popovich dismissed their Team Fire outburst in the first half of Game 3 as an anomaly, but for a team that also just set a Finals FG% record - against one of the NBA's 'best defenses', 'outlier' seems like a better word. That 71-point, 78% half was no accident.

Defensively, the Spurs did a great job of walling LeBron off from the key; helping immediately from the wing when he got near the paint, and forcing the ensuing open shooter to beat them from distance. It was a "lesser of two evils" gamble; a simple tactic Pop didn't have to adjust much because Miami failed to make them pay time and time again.

The Spurs played so demoralizingly well through the entire series, you could see it on the Heat's faces; even they didn't think they could win. When they summoned the will to engage Rampage Mode, it was a solo effort from LeBron, both too little and too late.

Last night's triumph was a poignant torch-passing for San Antonio. Their veteran stars led the way to one more title, but Kawhi Leonard - for the second straight year - took his game to new heights, using the Finals as a showcase for his elite-ceiling talent. Kawhi is an absolute killer; a clearly under-utilized potential superstar whose humility and unselfishness fits almost too well in The System. Most nights, he'll play completely within the team, deferring, sometimes to their detriment, as if he's not confident of his own obvious ability. When he feels empowered, and is attacking like he knows he's that good, he's one of the NBA's best players, which is why he's our Finals MVP, a mere three games after his lack of impact became one of the series' biggest subplots.


Leonard will become more of a focal point going forward for San Antonio - the leap many figured he'd make this year was difficult within such a balanced team system, but will only be harder to hold back after the display he just put on. The once-storied trade that sent George Hill to Indiana for Leonard's draft rights has become yet another savvy pillage by Pop and RC Buford; securing and developing another humble, dynamic star to lead them when Tim Duncan retires. Ironically at the same age Duncan won his first Finals MVP, in what could be Timmy's NBA finale, Kawhi was the re-birth. The team's in good - not to mention freakishly big - hands.

Of course this outcome weaves narratives of offseason uncertainty for both franchises; for the Spurs whether Duncan and/or Pop will return, and for the Heat whether anybody will. The only certainty for Miami is that Norris Cole and Birdman will be back, and Shane Battier won't (A side nod to Battier on a great career that deserved a better ending that this collapse; he was a living embodiment of every positive intangible cliché - "great locker room guy", "makes others better", "does the little things", "plays smart" - and is one of the most well-spoken and intuitive pro athletes ever. He'll be an instant hit on ESPN's NCAA coverage next year).

Trying to figure out what's next for Miami is a futile attempt to both read the minds of their "Big 3" (a term I use with strong hesitance after this series), and predict what Pat Riley may have up his sleeve. A whole bunch of things could unravel. Among them: LeBron could toss Bosh and Wade some of that Beats residual under the table send a message with a big pay cut; the kind Timmy D took (making less than half of what he was eligible for last year) that enabled San Antonio to keep this team together. Duncan has significantly scaled back his salary since signing an extension in 2007 for well below (>20%) the max. That deal was worth $20million/year; this year he made about half that. He's led by example for Manu and Tony Parker to follow the same lead, and directly enabled the Spurs' continued success.

The Heat have been schooled again, just as they were by the Mavs in 2011. This time the lesson was in sustainability, with the blueprint laid out by a team whose stars' unselfishness allowed them to keep contending as they aged. I know it was only four years ago that Miami's triumvirate of talent seemed almost unfair, but Wade - who was once both indestructible and unflappable - just blew his second straight finals, Chris Bosh is still forced out-of-position a lot and is variably dangerous, even LeBron finally showed signs of mortality this year, as his surroundings grew increasingly Cleveland-like.

This team's getting no younger, and their easiest means of returning to the throne is by following the example San Antonio just served them. All three of Miami's players can and should take pay cuts; because LeBron has more money than his great-grandchildren's extorting ex-wives could spend, the thought of Wade or Bosh making anywhere near $20 million next year gives me headaches, and it would be the best move for all three of their legacies going forward. Whether they want to heed The System's sage advice is up to them.

As for the Spurs, it's hard to see why anyone would want to leave this organization; especially someone who was as rejuvenated for this series as Duncan. He could easily play another year at this pace, but his fifth ring - the one he endured the longest wait for - would be the perfect way to ride out. As he sat at the podium last night, a proud dad with his kids on Father's Day, having accomplished virtually everything a basketball player could in his career, one could hardly blame him for walking away.

But this isn't about what's next for San Antonio yet; it's about the now. Congrats to the NBA Champion Spurs; no one deserved it more. 

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

They Meet Again...




The Irresistible Force Paradox is a complex philosophical query that seeks to address what happens when a so-called "unstoppable force" encounters an immovable object. Countless hours have no doubt been wasted pondering this hypothetical showdown - its origins date back to ancient China and Greece - but the NBA Finals are about to provide a very thorough case study.

The Miami Heat are by all definitions an unstoppable force; a trio of All-NBAers who, in their primes, banded together in an unprecedented attempt at historic glory. Regardless of our opinions about how competitive or legitimate their decisions were, they've delivered on massive expectations, making four straight Finals runs, gunning for a third Larry O.

Then there's the Spurs, the good 'ol San Antonio Spurs, who have been as close to an immovable object as exists in pro sports over the better part of the last two decades. Year after year, they somehow stiff-arm Father Time and throw together a deep Playoff run, this one culminating in a chance for revenge:

The 2013 Finals were, needless to say, an epic. Seven games of haymaker exchanges between two teams battling for legacy implications far beyond just one season's title. This year, the stakes have somehow been raised; a three-peat for Miami, and the Spurs looking to overcome arguably the most painful loss in Finals history.

Pretty safely said, no two other teams wanted to be here as badly.

While a few things have changed, the tale of the tape reads somewhat similar to last year (duh). These are two incredibly versatile lineups; comfortable in variety of tempos, and able to adjust rotations on the fly. San Antonio holds slight-to-significant edges in offensive execution, pace control, and depth, while Miami has the quickness and athleticism to selectively dominate both sides of the ball. Not to mention potentially the two best players in this series.

Dwyane Wade's performance will be critical, and all signs point to the significant rest he got all season paying off down the stretch. He was dominant vs. Indiana, looking like his 25-year old self, and not last June's hobbled mess whom the Heat prevailed almost in spite of. They're a different team when Wade's playing energetic ball, attacking off the bounce and keeping control of his defensive assignments. It not only takes pressure off LeBron, and gets them in transition together more, but opens up so many more options for everyone from Mario Chalmers to Udonis Haslem in the halfcourt, which will be another key to this series.


While Miami's Big 3 will all need to bring their A-Games, the same isn't as applicable for the Spurs, who boast the deepest and most role-suited rotation the NBA's seen in some time. San Antonio's deep enough that they can still win games in which Parker, Ginobili and Duncan are overshadowed, if guys like Boris Diaw and Kawhi Leonard are playing like All-Stars. Miami can't hope to win the bench/supporting cast battle, but the ability of guys like Chalmers, Norris Cole, and especially Birdman to neutralize the Spurs' depth advantage could decide this series.

Mr. Andersen might be counted on to play a bigger role (pun intended) with San Antonio likely to force Miami's hand with large lineups that disrupt their small-ball approach and feast on paint scoring absent an athletic protector (see; Western Conference Finals, Games 1, 2). Popovich knows that not only will he be exploiting Miami's lack of interior protection, but disabling them from playing the kind of Bosh/Lewis frontcourt that took Indiana's slower bigs and worse rotations out of the game. In this regard it's all about which team can strike the first blow, establish a rhythm, and force the other to adjust, an advantage neither seem inclined to concede right now.

Miami's dismantling of Indiana in Game 6 had as much to do with the Heat's great play as it did the Pacers' collective bowel movement on the American Airlines Arena floor. As a team, they're sharp and focused; LeBron is LeBron, Wade looks better than he has in two years, Bosh is as dangerous a third option as exists, and their bench - for all the talk of how they lost Mike Miller and fanned on free agency last summer - has been consistently strong through multiple permutations. It took two fluke games from the Pacers to avoid a sweep (Game 1's miracle where they got their most coherent team effort in months and everyone freaked out like the Apocalypse was coming, and Game 5 where LeBron was in serious foul trouble, which sounds weird just saying). The East wasn't exactly tough this season, but Miami was very close to a single-loss rampage to the Finals; they're playing more stable and confident heading in than they were this time last year.

The Spurs have been their own form of consistent juggernaut, only they've been doing it all season, and in a much tougher Conference. Their ability to dominate with a variety of lineups and threats was as much an asset as it was an impressive result; everyone's been kept fresh and can capably contribute depending on what Pop decides he needs. Even with Tony Parker's hamstring ailing, they've been firing on pretty much all cylinders, not only outplaying the Thunder, but doing it with about as many different lineups as could exist in one series.

While the Spurs' Big 3 still undoubtedly lead this team, it's becoming far less about them, and never 
moreso than this year. Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw have not only been hired guns offensively, but will be looked upon to repeat last year's stellar coverage on LeBron. Patty Mills will space the floor, tire Miami's defenders and no doubt sting them with a few three-balls, while Cory Joseph will play a big part if the Heat begin torching the perimeter themselves. There's no need to remind everyone what Danny Green can do in the Finals when he's ignored, and Marco Belinelli is just as liable. Tiago Splitter's been a stud, Aron Baynes is one of the best backups bigs around, and even The Red Mamba can make a cameo start in a small-ball set. That's this year's Spurs: you can get it from anyone, they don't care who it is.

As evidenced last year, this type of pass-heavy, balanced team play, while crippling against just about any team, isn't as much of an edge vs Miami, who play passing lanes notoriously well, rotate quickly, and often feature lineups without a single minus defender on the floor. They're kind of like a phalanx around the perimeter, they must be penetrated to be truly damaged. Unfortunately for them, Parker is a nightmare getting into the paint off the dribble (when he's at or near full strength), and the Spurs boast the NBA's best corps of big men, both in terms of passing and moving without the ball.

San Antonio can hurt Miami in a variety of ways; while their preferred style and tempo can play into the Heat's hands at times, they're definitely versatile enough to create other edges, which is the Spurs' greatest advantage in this series.They not only have more options in terms of dictating matchups and forcing adjustments, but Gregg Fucking Popovich deploying the troops. All apologies to Erik Spoelstra, who's proven his worth as NBA coach in about the hardest way possible, but he's the definite underdog of the Bench Boss Battle.

On the other hand, he has LeBron James, which really just speaks for itself. The guy's the most complete player in the history of basketball; one who despite having been a beast this entire postseason, has seemed almost slightly reserved by his standards, as if he's saving his best for when he knows it's needed. Playoff LeBron absolutely has another gear, which has to terrify any Spurs fan.

Trying to decide this series is pretty much impossible as is; these teams possess very unique and distinct advantages over each other, that they're both liable to apply in a high-stakes war of adjustment. Last year, they were so closely matched that it spanned seven gruesome games, the result leaving both thirstier for victory this time around. It's the unstoppable force clashing with the immovable object; there's logic behind both choices.

In this case though, the immovable object seems like the safer choice. The Spurs have been a 'rock' all season, playing devastating basketball through numerous injuries; Tony Parker's nebulous condition - while an obvious issue - is much less a concern for them than any other roster. The margins between these two teams are so close that we're almost certainly in for another seven-game bout, and counting on the Spurs to lose again - after coming so close last year and coming back as a better team - is asking too much.

Enjoy what has the makings of another legendary Finals. SPURS IN 7.

Saturday, June 22, 2013

Top 9s: Thoughts on the Finals

Whoa.

That was an NBA Finals.

A heavily-contested seven-game exchange of haymakers between two iconic juggernauts.

Not only a title, but legacies were on the line, and it played out beautifully.


While a few of the series' games didn't need a second half, and Miami spent most of it mired in inconsistency, it was the adjustment-fueled unpredictability of this matchup, and its ability to deliver a dramatic turn of events at every crucial juncture, that made it so compelling. It went kind of like this on a basketball court (with Dwyane Wade playing the role of Joffrey as he ridiculously nicknames his new sword "Heart-Eater").

I'm still trying to wrap my head around Game 6. I've spent countless hours watching basketball, and can't confidently say I've ever seen a more crucially thrilling 4th quarter, one that will probably go down as the most definitive moment in LeBron James' legacy. He'd spent most of the game playing passively; pulling up for jumpers when he was ice cold and displaying a similar lack of touch when he seldom got to the hoop. Then the 4th came, as if it were pre-ordained by Erik Spoelstra telling Doris Burke "We need our best defensive quarter of the season". They got it, erasing a 10-point deficit with LeBron not only putting up several massive plays on D but - ironically stripped of his hairline-guard - channeling Ether Mode out of nowhere, scoring at will, saving his team's season and altering history. 

Without that performance, the Heat's season (and when I say "Heat", I basically mean LeBron) becomes a footnoted failure along the NBA annals; their boisterous and flamboyant union of superstars in South Beach would ultimately be looked upon as a bust of style over substance and hype over hoops. James boldly re-wrote what seemed to be another off-chapter in his career; he solidified the next level in an already Top-10 All-Time career, and swiftly changed the popular offseason discussion from "When will he just get it consistently in the Finals?" to "He might go down as the best basketball player ever". That LeBron came out guns blazing from beyond the arc in Game 7 (I was waiting for him to turn around and shrug as he jogged downcourt) was a fitting cap to a memorable Playoff run in which he solidified himself as, if nothing else, the most dynamically dominant player in NBA history.

It would be ignorant not to tip a hat to the Spurs (although it's definitely possible that the backup point guard of the Houston Rockets was the biggest contributor to their Playoff run). Every year they continue to defy father time and popular opinion, and were a transcendent, historic takeover by an unstoppable player away from a 5th Pop/Duncan title over 14 years. That's fucking impressive. Way may not have even seen the last of them yet, but how San Antonio manages to continue performing at this level is one of sports' greatest complex marvels.

There's plenty more to be said about this series, I could go on for days. To spare my fingers - and your tolerance for my rantings -  I'll keep it to nine things that stood out to me (other than LeBron) in these Finals, a Championship Edition of the Top 9s:

9. Manu's Officially Fallen Off
The guy who was the easy bet as the first Spurs' star to slow down indeed has confirmed early indications that San Antonio's "Big 3" are now a busted tripod. Game 5 was a renaissance to his glory days, but it came almost as a shock (if such a thing was possible in this series) and was evidently a flash in the pan, as Ginobili returned to inconsistent, selective scoring over the last two games, while turning the ball over like bed sheets in a Vegas hotel. Kawhi Leonard is  unquestionably now the Spurs' third-best player (more on that in a moment) and Popovich/Buford should give serious thought to how much they can invest long-term in the Free Agent who performed so inconsistently down the stretch of the postseason. At 35, with a total of 18 pro seasons under his belt, it's a virtual certainty he won't be getting better. 

8.Javie the Hutt
NBA officiating is an extremely difficult, high-pressure job with massive implications; one that isn't made any easier when the context of fouls - the most common call in the game - can often change almost nightly. The inconsistency in officiating's been an issue plaguing the Playoffs annually, as warped calls distort the game's context and affect outcomes (like Ginobili's potentially series-altering no-call at the end of Game 6). 

Luckily a very smart individual at ESPN decided to toss the recently-retired Steve Javie a headset and let him help bridge the gap between reality and that strange alternate universe officials occasionally drift off into where only superstars shoot free throws, and a player grimacing excitedly after a big dunk can get him T'd up. Javie's well-spoken, impartial and offers not only an experienced perspective on the difficulties of the job that can lead to blown calls, but serves as a sort of watchdog against officials who might get over-zealous and try to take over games with the whistle. At least on national TV. 

7. Erik Spoelstra "clicking buttons"
As an addicted dedicated online poker player, I've gradually become immersed in a vast lexicon of strange vernacular. One of the more self-explanatory terms - "clicking buttons" - refers to a player who's just randomly splashing around without any sort of consistent strategy, waywardly tapping  his mouse and keyboard, making wild bet sizes with junk hands as though he's excited just to see what will happen.

This seemed to be Spo's M.O. throughout most of the series, as Popovich continually out-coached him and he responded by frantically throwing different lineups at San Antonio in an almost trial-and-error fashion, before finally arriving at the Game 6 4th-Quarter set that spaced the floor ideally for LeBron and was quick enough to rotate against the Spurs' passing.


He failed to develop a scheme to contain Danny Green for five games (if it happens for one game, it's probably the players' fault, if it happens for five it's definitely the coach's), randomly went small with Mike Miller instead of Shane Battier, took too long to realize the Birdman just wasn't flying against Timmy D, before benching him and then re-inserting him in a panic for Game 6 only to have basically the same thing happen.  Miami won this series almost in spite of him as Pop exploited the sideline matchup in ways Spo couldn't counter.

6. Dwyane Wade might be my least favorite player in the NBA
When the Heat assembled this trio, Wade was the squeaky-clean one; the GQ-rated, ring-having King of South Beach, who'd "brought them together" and hadn't left a city/country of pissed off fans behind him. Times have certainly changed; LeBron's stolen the keys to the team and city from Wade, who's developed a troubling pattern of arrogant, annoying behavior while oscillating between past and future versions of his basketball ability.

He whines constantly to the refs, probably more than any other NBA player. He makes dumb public statements, like he should be paid for the Olympics. He plays with an irritating sense of entitlement that isn't his anymore; a common ball-stopper who launches predictable, out-of-sync mid-long range jumpers as though they're his bread 'n butter, and when he plays like crap, he deflects it on LeBron or screams at his coach. 


Dressing as obnoxiously as he often chooses to while attempting to give himself an equally dumb and narcissistic nickname as a promotional tie-in for his new shoe deal don't make him any more likeable, nor does the fact that he dates a woman who's hypnotized any man (and probably more than a few women) who's seen movies on BET.

What's most disappointing about Wade is that he generally behaves with about 20% of the poise, maturity and charisma that he had before James and Bosh showed up, like he's regressed to an immature child that needs to show off for his friends. A guy who was once respected league-wide has become a pretentious crybaby while his consistency continues to slip. And his team played better without him when it mattered most. 


5. Kawhi Leonard is really, really good
While Ginobili and Wade represented the fading legends of these Finals, Leonard used the series as his launching pad from "Alpha Role-Player" to "Probable All-Star", teaming with Boris Diaw to confound LeBron for large stretches, while scoring in a variety of ways, and both passing and rebounding extremely well for a player his size.

A recent Grantland article chronicled the Leonard/George Hill swap as both were playing a crucial role for teams in the Conference Finals and it appeared to be a mutually beneficial move. The added layer was that Indiana had almost traded for Hill the previous season, but backed out to keep their draft pick and use it on some guy named Paul George who just reeked of NBA potential. Having George developing on the wing made it easier for Indiana to part with Leonard's rights, allowing the Spurs to acquire a player whose career ceiling - after these Finals - doesn't look much different from PG's lofty potential.

Everything about him impresses me; not only the variety of ways in which he can impact a game, but how he keeps a constant even-keel. He always stays cool and plays within himself, accepting whatever is asked of him by his team and performing with the poise of a veteran. At 21. It seems remarkable, but then you remember that these are the Spurs, that the words "character guys" and "draft steals" are the core of their franchise, and it becomes perfectly standard. 


4. Like a Bosh
Bosh's Finals performance - much like Wade's - was a generally disappointing inability to get himself going consistently. He put up a donut in Game 7 (yeah, he didn't score at all) missing easy jumpers and drawing the ire of Miami's fickle crowd after they had to watch Tim Duncan just completely sodomize him for 36 minutes of Game 6. But in between those two disasters, he delivered on three plays - two blocks and an offensive rebound - that respectively indirectly and very directly, saved Miami's season.

As simple and amusing as it is to poke fun at a guy who makes himself such a target consistently, I kind of feel for Bosh, as he's had to make massive sacrifices for this team. Not only did he slide from a first to third option in joining the Heat, but eventually was asked to step outside his comfort zone and position, basically playing a pseudo-center to help keep the floor spaced with shooters, the lane open for James and Wade, and as many runners on the floor as possible for the Heat's suffocating, uptempo play. The result has sometimes often left Bosh in compromising positions on defense and the offensive glass against larger, longer, more physical players, not helping his reputation around the league as somewhat of a, well, a bitch. While Bosh is hated on and joked about, he still plays a vital role on this team; one that now has "not one..." but two titles, so he's not getting it all wrong.

Case in point were his uncharacteristic blocks of the Spurs' attempts to steal back a game he kept alive with his team's Playoff life flat-lining. Bosh had every reason not to own that moment - he'd been getting worked all game, played awful for most of the series, and was never particularly known as a strong defender or mentally fortuitous competitor. But he, against most odds, still managed to come up with unexpected contributions at the most vital of times. So for now, he should hold his head high and be happy. For once. At least until something like this happens
.

3.The Legend of Danny Green

Danny Green's unconscious 3-point explosion over the first five games was a perfect storm of applicable catalysts. A very good shooter was often the last focus on D, and not only moved impeccably well on cuts to create space for himself, but happened to play on a team where the "extra pass" was a given.

What he did to Miami was spellbinding, not only in the obvious impressiveness of his record-shredding run, but the Heat's complete and utter inability to just stay at home against him, and eliminate a looming liability. Spo was tossing so much help in the paint against Duncan/Parker that Green could just break across a baseline underneath all the action and emerge on the other side with 10 feet of openness.

All it really took was the simple rationalization that "We've left this guy open and he's been their
leading scorer so far. He can't really create for himself or others off the dribble, so maybe if we just   acknowledge how he's burnt us so far and stop leaving him on the wing, he won't be as effective".

The results spoke for themselves. Green failed to develop any kind of consistent rhythm, settling for mostly-contested jumpers and looking like a small child lost at the mall whenever he put the ball on the floor. He shot a combined 2-19 over the Final two games while scoring fewer total points than he had in any lone Finals contest. Miami won both those games. Obviously the former didn't completely cause the latter, but it was certainly a massive contribution, and an obvious adjustment that came late - almost too late - for Miami. 


2. Effort vs. Execution
The simplest way of breaking down these Finals is that they were a war of constant adjustment with both teams putting each other in precarious positions - San Antonio by playing near-flawless basketball for large chunks of this series, and Miami by working their edge in athleticism when it was most critical.

I use the words "most critical" very carefully because through a lot of this season, particularly the Playoffs, it seemed as though Miami needed to be backed into a corner in order to truly play their best basketball. They often seemed almost arrogantly nonchalant in their lack of investment; everyone watching knew this team had a higher gear. To their credit though, they shifted into that gear consistently when they had to, and though their season had to be threatened several times, the brilliance with which the Heat played under the chaos of urgency, time and time again, was unreal.

As simple as it is to say the more talented team won, it would be a fallacy. Miami's Big 3 united and all played championship basketball for exactly one game of this series. Both Wade and Bosh were below 100% as they struggled to take the heat off LeBron (pun completely intended). What kept them going were King James, and a rotating cast of supporting players being thrown through Spoelstra's Finals Lineup Randomizer Machine, and each came up big at times.

And when it came down to it, Miami was able take enough hits and not only stay on their feet, but summon the will to take it to the next level against a team that gave them every reason to think they couldn't win.


1. The End of the Era
Lost amid the excitement of the Finals was that this would be David Stern's last trophy presentation. The legendary commissioner has grown the NBA's popularity immeasurably since taking over in 1984, re-engineered pro basketball into a marketable, exciting product. There couldn't have been a more fitting farewell for him than this ratings-smash of a seven-game, superstar-filled, thrillingly media-hyping series.

When Stern took over as commish, the NBA Finals were shown on tape delay as a more-than-slightly-racist American public was having trouble buying into a league of coked-out mostly-black athletes who brawled constantly and played for stats and contracts over wins and championships. Today - as he not-so-subtly pointed out before handing over the trophy that will one day bear his name - the Finals are watched by many millions in countries around the World. Much can be said of his tactics, but it's largely because of Michael Jordan David Stern that his beautiful game has grown and flourished, to be appreciated by so many globally; its dynamic popularity a reflection of its true entertainment value.


And so Stern rides off into the sunset (well, he doesn't officially retire until next February, but it has to be assumed Adam Silver will begin sliding into his new role) his run capped by an epic blockbuster he can proudly look upon as having fostered through decades of hard work. As basketball fans, we should be thankful for Stern. And for these Finals. It was one of the best ever, and a privilege to watch. 


Thursday, June 6, 2013

2013 Finals Preview: Are the Heat Hot Enough?

In 2007, a then-Cavalier named LeBron James dragged a pitiful Cleveland roster through a shallow East Playoff bracket, as its lone star, to his first Finals; a showdown with the San Antonio Spurs. What ensued was a swift, abrupt lesson in team execution as the Spurs swept the Cavs in demoralizing fashion. LeBron would never return to the Finals with Cleveland, a team he ultimately deemed wasn't to his standards.

Fast-forward six years, several MVPs, one Decision, a one-way ticket to South Beach, and two Finals appearances later, LeBron is suddenly getting those "Cleveland" feelings again, his brilliance being contrasted by disappointing play from those around him. Despite this, he finds himself back in the Finals, and sure as the sky's blue and the dirt brown, waiting there for him again are the Spurs. Some things change, some things stay the same.

One such thing; David Stern consistently dodging disaster. Rumblings of referee incompetence were forcing a Game 7 that could potentially commit a Red Wedding-style massacre on his final Finals' ratings as commissioner, but the Heat stung a decisive win against the superstar-less, small-market Pacers, moving on to battle the Spurs in a matchup that's really about more than this season's title.

For Miami, it's a validation of what they've constructed. This season's team was Small-Ball at its apex;  a pressure-filled flurry of transition alley-oops and multiple-pass diversion plays that epitomized the NBA's emerging skill-over-size trend. A win in this series would bolster their 27-game win streak and last year's title; it would put them among some of the truly memorable teams on a historic level. This is important for Miami because the Decision-fueled hype of Summer 2010 set the bar on an unprecedented level for this team, and anything short of historic resonance will be seen as a failure of not only what they put together, but how.

For the Spurs, it's a chance to resonate on an even greater level. They've spent the last 14 years, in the face of the largest fanbase of on-the-low hatred in professional sports, quietly, methodically, arguably becoming the greatest dynasty in the modern era of professional sports. A fifth title in as many Finals appearances over such a stretch with the same coach/superstar combo would be an unprecedented feat in any league, and would further pad Tim Duncan's already Top 10 All-Time resume.

For the NBA it's a very marketable, star-filled clash of Old vs New School; one with two evenly-matched, highly-skilled and well-coached two-way teams who both present several matchup issues for each other, and can not only dictate but adapt well to a game's change in tempo. In other words: this series is guaranteed not to be a flop (we've seen enough flopping in these Playoffs), and has the potential to be truly memorable.

This Finals obviously has to start with LeBron James, the reigning MVP/Finals MVP/possible Transformer who can dominate games in more ways than any player perhaps ever. He'll be the focal point of this series, both on the court and in the social mediasphere, and his team's chances appear to hinge heavily on his ability to maintain what I call "Ether Mode". The good news for him is that he's just defeated a team that between Paul George's dynamic coverage and Roy Hibbert's "Verticality" was ideally equipped to defend him. The bad news is that the Spurs are capable of not only suffocating defense, but thrive on half-court offensive efficiency that would've easily buried the Miami team that showed itself for most of the Pacers series; one that will not only challenge their team D much more, but be far less willing to cough up the ball for the transition buckets the Heat thrive on. So LeBron's isn't in for a cakewalk, as he'll have to not only excel on offense consistently, but potentially cover several defensive mismatches .

If Miami can take something away from the fact that a one-way team with an absolutely pitiful bench just dragged them to a seventh game, it's that they faced real adversity and a sense of urgency for the first time all season and overcame it. Not only were Bosh and Wade just awful, but drawing the ire of LeBron, who took public pot shots at his teammates as the Heat's chemistry - which as had been schizophrenic prior to this season - appeared to be coming undone. The response to the threat of elimination was an immediate return to their winning style - exploiting and attacking Indiana instead of falling into their halfcourt tempo - and an emphatic win that righted their momentum. Which is good for them because they'll need it; The Spurs are playing extremely well as a team, and are more rested than Gregg Popovich ever could've plotted for at this point in the season.

Tony Parker's most recent performance was a filleting of an NBA All-D 2nd-Teamer, so Miami has to be immediately concerned about how to contain him. Mario Chalmers is long on the perimeter, but kind of slow. Norris Cole is quick and energetic, but not an incredible fundamental defender. Dwyane Wade is a phenomenal defender on his best day, but today (or at least most of the past two weeks) is far from that day.
Parker's ability to pick apart Miami off the dribble will highlight both strengths and weaknesses of their team D. Miami has very little rim protection, and if Parker is able to get to the hole at will, he'll make life difficult for them by forcing a defensive collapse on the paint - that San Antonio is all-too-well known for picking apart with crafty passing and the infamous Corner Three. To the Heat's credit, they're perfectly-built to play that kind of high-movement, switch-heavy scheme on D, and will ensure more resistance than Memphis did.

The ability of their post tandem to handle Tim Duncan also has to be a huge concern after Chris Bosh played like one of those flamingo lawn ornaments for most of the East Finals. Timmy D's not only going to be fresh, but exploit every single edge Miami gives him; their coverage will have to be multi-faceted. He's enough of a scoring threat to warrant double-teams, especially against the Heat's front line, but an equally dangerous passer both within and out of the post. Again, this primarily attacks a fundamental weakness of Miami's, but they're well-equipped to defend the secondary by doubling down on Duncan and rotating quickly enough to cover open shooters/passing lanes. Interior passing will be a serious issue for them however; Tiago Splitter tore the Grizzlies apart when Gasol sat and the Arthur/Randolph combo couldn't hold water against Duncan's dual threat, and Miami's similar (only perpetual) lack of size could leave them more exposed against a team whose bigs both pass and finish extremely well close to the hoop (In fact, don't be entirely surprised if LeBron ends up covering Duncan for some stretches if he's got fouls to give).

Manu Ginobili will be the Finals' obvious Wild Card; while he's been a hobbled shadow of himself as the Playoffs have wore on, the week+ off will have given him a chance to recharge and bring a new level of energy and pressure to the Heat perimeter. Miami's periodic offensive dysfunction in the East Finals went largely unpunished when Indiana's bench was struggling to pass to the right team, let alone put the ball in the basket. Manu at his best is a one-man firing squad who can ignite a second unit by himself and is savvy enough to create hoops for any teammate, and his potential highlights another issue for Miami: Depth.

San Antonio can wear teams down by out-manning them, going the whole way down their bench with players tailor-fit to specific roles and matchups. Conversely, Miami's bench reads like a gradually-declining list of the same skill sets, each player not only becoming more ineffective, but cobweb-ridden during their playoff run. Joel Anthony is a prime example of a player who might see extended minutes (to stop the bleeding Duncan's likely to inflict), but will force the Heat out of their comfort zone and into a 4 on 5 offense.

So what does Miami have going for them?

First off, Chris Bosh should be in a slightly more comfortable state, and the same can be said for Dwyane Wade. Both were pitted against larger, more physical defenders against Indy, and Bosh in particular drew the brunt of Hibbert's abuse in the low post, and the hit his ego took obviously permeated into his confidence on offense as he struggled consistently (which sort of explains why he was so happy when he finally managed to hit a shot in Game 7, as seen to the right). While Duncan's obviously far more skilled than Hibbert, he's also primarily a finesse player, one who caters to Bosh a bit more. Indiana took Christopher so far out of his comfort zone on one end that he couldn't establish it on the other, and the result was some of Miami's worst ball of the season.

Wade was likewise ineffective, appearing a step slow and out-of-sync with James, partly due to Indiana's League-best defense, as well as a (relative) rift between the BFFs, with the two taking not-so-indirect shots at each other through the media. Game 7's win was surely enough to squash whatever was going on there. Ever since the 2nd-half turnaround in Game 4 of last year's Indiana series - the one where Wade and James were human portrayals of the CPU that just won't let you win in Madden or 2K - their occasionally mercurial on-court synergy has usually been at (or near) its best when most needed, as though they know they have a gear above everyone else and confidently engage it. These Finals will require it consistently.

While the Spurs have a depth advantage, Miami certainly has the talent and athleticism to force their hand with it. Their frenetic play on both sides of the ball can wear teams down and rack up fouls, which will be a very dramatic shift from the pace Memphis just allowed San Antonio to get so comfortable in. They'll be forced to chase a lot more on D, battle for plenty more defensive boards, and be giving up an athleticism edge at almost every position, which mandates hard work regardless of how small Miami is. While the Spurs have the deeper bench, Miami's supporting cast has the higher ceiling, and if guys like Chalmers and Battier are able to get into consistent rhythms and make defensive impacts, San Antonio could be in trouble.


Having the most complete player in NBA history (let's just kill this "Potential G.O.A.T" talk and call him what he is) leading your team is obviously a significant advantage; a guy who can not only win a game by himself, but can do it in several ways simultaneously. Kawhi Leonard will spend the most time covering LeBron, but despite being an excellent defender, is ill-equipped to contain James on his own - a trait he shares with all humans. The Spurs' front line lacks that "lane-clogger" (think Roy Hibbert or Tyson Chandler) that's been so fatal to LeBron's penetration, which means he'll be much more comfortable going to the hoop off the dribble - which is by far when he's most dangerous. Send too many players towards a basket-bound King James, and Miami has enough spot-up shooters to rain threes all day; it's pick your poison (though the way they've shot it at times through these Playoffs, Pop might be able to swallow the latter). There's also his defensive presence; he could cover Duncan or Parker if needed, and won't be tested nearly as often by Leonard as the George/West combo, leaving him more in free-safety mode than the Spurs would like, especially against their pick-and-roll.

Miami will also have homecourt, which is massive for a team in a closely-matched series who plays as well at home as the Heat do. While South Beach residents have never been accused of being the most knowledgeable, dedicated, or enthusiastic NBA fans around, something has to be said for Miami's league-best record at the Triple-A, especially in Wade's case (what, like you wouldn't play with more confidence if you'd slept with Gabrielle Union the night before). The first two at home will be important tone-setters for a team that just came off a challenging series that shook its momentum severely; their ability to get back into their comfortable pace and push the Spurs will likely decide the outcome of this series.

San Antonio has plenty of intangibles playing to their edge, but the painful truth for them is that their ideal style of play caters too well to what Miami thrives in. The Spurs love to shoot 3s; Miami defends them extremely well. They love to abuse teams on the pick-and-roll, Miami has LeBron James. They love to bury defenses in the paint with Parker/Duncan help and move the ball several times for open shots, which Miami is probably better equipped to counter than any team in the NBA. On the other side of things, the Spurs don't have the size or all-around athletic toughness to bully the Heat like Indiana did; Miami did just get dragged to the edge of elimination, but again, by a team that's ideally built to defend them, and the only one to go all 7 rounds with them over their 3-peat as East Champs. What San Antonio also doesn't have - more to their demise - is LeBron James; a better player than in 2007, with a better team and a sharper killer instinct, which in this close of a matchup should be enough to keep Miami on the throne this season. Some things change, some things stay the same. Heat in 7.

Saturday, June 23, 2012

New World Order - Miami Changes the Game

Now that we've all had a couple days to digest Lebron James being an NBA Champion, there's a much bigger issue lingering in the aftermath of his victory: the fact that the "bad guys" won. These NBA Finals were as close as you could come to a battle of Good vs. Evil in the NBA; like the Avengers movie they so relentlessly (and horribly) tried to tie into the early Playoff rounds. And dammit did Captain America ever just get the shit kicked out of him. Regardless of what you want to argue about Lebron, Wade, Bosh, hell even Erik Spoelstra's personal merits, Miami represents a troubling trend...

Small market teams are already at an inherent disadvantage in the NBA; getting the short end of the proverbial stick in a league that's expanded too quickly and diluted its talent pool, doesn't share revenue, and has shown a disturbing lack of initiative in keeping its teams in one place. 

The obvious irony is that the Thunder - the ostensible "good guys" in this case - arrived in Oklahoma City through a sleazy underhanded pillaging that robbed a deserving fanbase in Seattle of its favorite team. But what happened once Clay Bennett brought the Thunder there (except for going with his 2nd-grade son's art project as a logo) almost was good enough to justify it. The Thunder's fans were amazing, and not in a "We're really drunk and pumped for live sports!!" way like Memphis' GrindHouse faithful, but in a "This city badly needs a positive identity to unite around" way, and they cheered relentlessly, every night, showing a bond with their team unseen in pro sports. The only strike against them is that they're SO good, their team often appears a shell of itself on the road.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, Sam Presti was being the shrewdest GM in the League. Sure, he got handed a once-in-a-generation player, but he also drafted James Harden and Russell Westbrook when they were far from no-brainers. He unearthed Serge Ibaka. He acquired Nick Collison and Thabo Sefolosha, inexpensive pieces that rounded out his lineup nicely. He hired a pretty good coach. He never panicked, let his team develop together,work hard, improve every year, and break through to the Finals on an epic run after mowing down the three teams that had represented the West in every Finals for the last twelve years. The guy who led them was an ideal superstar; humble, unselfish, had devoted his entire career to winning basketball games, and nothing else. Simply put, you couldn't find a more deserving team in the NBA. 

And then there's Miami.

While the Boston Celtics of 2008 (and likely the Spurs before them) birthed this newfound notion of needing three superstars to win an NBA Championship, the Heat took things to a whole new level. What happened in Boston was 85% a shrewd assembly by Danny Ainge, bringing together three aging legends who were hungry for the title that had eluded them...And 15% Kevin McHale gift-wrapping his best player for his former team (#CelticPride). What happened in Miami, well...shit...can YOU ever think of a time when three of the League's best players all "happened" to be free agents together, out of the same Draft no less (not insinuating anything, just calling facts facts), and signed with the same team? No, because it's never happened before. People were justified in calling it a "short cut" out of initial shock because there was no precedent against which to measure it; it just seemed sleazy and unfair, like they were destined to win (only it took them a season to figure it out because these three guys generally complemented each other like a bad hangover, Wild Turkey, and work). The guy who led them was a formerly arrogant young man who'd been gifted with the greatest physical composition and skill set ever for the game of basketball, but became so consumed with the bullshit surrounding it that he - in his own words - had to "hit rock bottom" before he could rediscover his passion for the game. Simply put, you couldn't find a less deserving team in the NBA. 

And even before they won, you could see unhealthy trends developing:

After fanning on Lebron, the Knicks have already fucked themselves trying to form their own Big 3; two-thirds there with the only foundation that could possibly make less sense than the Bosh/Wade/James lineup, and just not that great of a team. 

The Lakers tried to keep pace and land Chris Paul, somehow invoking the intervention of David Stern, who thought he could step in and denounce the trade. This obviously angered the Lakers, and their legions of fans, called some legitimacy to those conspiracy theorists that said the fix was on, and made the NBA's commissioner look  weak and lost.

Meanwhile, there's an absolute spending frenzy running amok while teams prepare to compete with this inevitable shitstorm of talent stockpiling. Nene just got near-max money. Deandre Jordan just got near-max money. People are realistically talking about James Harden getting a Boss Contract out of pure necessity. Already! DIDN'T WE JUST HAVE A FUCKING LOCKOUT BECAUSE OF THIS SHIT?!?!

South Florida is now sure to take on a role in the NBA much like it does in the Real World: a haven for veterans to chase rings and have fun at the end of their careers. Pat Riley will have his pick of quality againg players willing to barter money for glory at the salary table as this apparent dynasty evolves, which is already tilting the scales even further against already-oppressed small-market teams that aren't managed as well as the Thunder, and whose fans just don't care as much. 

Teams like Milwaukee, Charlotte and Portland (despite who owns them...) just don't have the financial firepower to go over the cap and compete with these superstar legions. Hell, even Oklahoma City, for all their tactically sound drafting and spending, faces big questions about how to keep their core intact going forward. It's cute that Miami's trio took pay cuts - you know, because Lebron James is really hard up for money - to play together, but they did the right thing for the wrong reasons; they fucked up the game. Talent like that is supposed to consume your entire roster, and for a team like the Heat - who just sold out an entire playoff run, sold untold fortunes in merchandise, and are on the verge of signing a TV deal in the $80-$100 million range - to absorb more talent will be pennies in couch cushions for the same sums that could bankrupt the Hornets. 

If things continue this way and really get out of hand; if the big markets continue to stockpile the best available talent, leaving the Underlings to gamble on lottery balls and un-trendy free agent signings, then the NBA can only suffer. The regular season will be a wash. The early rounds of the Playoffs will be formalities. Teams will continue to bleed money, move, and fold while fans lose interest and Skip Bayless annoys us. 

I'm not trying to play Nostradamus here. I'm a fan of the game above all else, and want what's best for the NBA. And as such, this trend scares me; a League that so quickly went from talking about overseas expansion to local contraction may have a problem growing beyond their control. There's only so much BRI to go around; and if a shrinking talent pool available to smaller markets continues to go up in price, then it's only a matter of time before the stands start to empty in some arenas.

When the Finals matchup was determined, it was set in stone that either the epitome of building a team the right way or the wrong way was going to be validated with a Championship. "Good vs. Evil". And Evil winning couldn't look much worse.