So we've finally arrived at a 2017 Finals matchup that was preordained the moment Kevin Durant joined the dark side.
After a quasi-inconsequential regular season, we were treated to the least suspenseful playoffs in recent memory, hurt not only by the obviousness of its destination, but everything from Toronto's indifference to Zaza Pachulia's defensive fundamentals.
We can lament what could've been over the past few months, but instead let's focus on the legendary potential of what's about to unfold in front of us.
To start, we're going to see a Finals rubber match for the first time in history. Never happened. Not even in the multiple epochs of Celtic-Laker rivalries (they've squared off in back-to-back years on four separate occasions). So that's pretty cool, if not slightly redundant.
The perpetual battle has spawned some not-so-awesome sentiment between these teams, which will make for peak intensity, and increased potential for hilarious animosity-fueled antics (especially when the likes of JR Smith and Javale McGee are involved).
This epic rivalry should also inspire great basketball porn from two simply remarkable teams. The symphony of offensive destruction - orchestrated by likely the NBA's three biggest superstars - should be a classic.
So let's get the obvious out of the way first: YES the Cavaliers do have a chance in this series, just not an incredibly good one.
Golden State completely decimated the West bracket, sporting not only a flawless record, but the highest point differential in playoff history; they certainly look unbeatable. That said, who could've realistically challenged them? The Blazers were a .500 team (#blowoutfodder). The Jazz were (obviously) below full-strength and couldn't have hoped to score with GSW. The Spurs became the first team ever to lose a playoff series while being up 23 in Game 1. The Warriors have been tested very poorly thus far.
The Cavs pose the first serious threat that Golden State has seen all season. After cruising through their schedule like an Easy Rider scene, they'll get their first taste of Fury Road, though it's unclear just how rough things will get for them.
We know that theoretically Golden State should be heavily favored. After all, they likely could've won the title last year if Draymond Green didn't bag-tag LeBron, but still added the NBA's 2nd-best player anyway. Instead of examine what the Warriors need to do to win (show up, play basketball, don't get injured or suspended), let's look at what factors might help the Cavs pull this off:
Defend the Land
First off is LeBron; a mirror-image of Draymond Green in his ability to matchup with virtually anyone defensively, and snuff a variety of attacks. They'll be getting Bron's 100% effort on D for likely the first time all year, which could have an immense impact.
Liable defenders Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have both visibly raised their effectiveness vs. Golden State. Tristan Thompson is also a great insurance policy against the Death Lineup; a rim protector who can switch on pick & rolls, and close out on perimeter players among the best bigs in the league. Steph Curry will not be doing this to him.
Last June, Cleveland did a stellar job of closing the perceived defensive gap between these teams, holding the Dubs to 99.9ppg, while posting similar turnover%, true shooting% and d-rating. That will prove tougher this year, but to suggest the Cavs won't improve their D for this series could be dubious.
Pray for Klay to Stay Down
Also decent news for the Cavs' D is that Klay Thompson is mired in one of the worst offensive stretches of his career. Thompson averaged 22.3 ppg on .468 from the field this season. Last year's playoffs saw him post 24.3 on .444. This postseason, those numbers have plummeted to 14.4 on .383. You certainly can't be leaving him - he can erupt at a moment's notice - but against an attack where Curry and Durant have to be your focus, not having Klay On Fire punish slow rotations is a huge advantage. An off game or two from Thompson could be costly enough.
Test Iguodala
Containing LeBron James is a very relative term, and it's not a great sign for the Warriors that their main means of guarding him is dealing with a bum knee. Not only will a hobbled or absent Andre Iguodala stretch the Warriors that much thinner on D, but will force either Durant or Green to spend the bulk of their minutes on James, burning max effort and potentially risking foul trouble.
Iggy says his knee is "good" (really, what else would he say?) but he'll need to be at his best vs what has all the makings of an apex LeBron performance. Having LBJ attacking his lateral movement (more drives, fewer 3s) could expose weakness and force the Dubs to adjust.
Win the Grit N Grind Battle
One of the biggest keys to Cleveland's win last year was exerting both a physical and mental edge on the suddenly-shook Warriors. The Cavs were running Curry into pick-and-rolls on every possible possession; throwing him into hard screens and physical switches. They were waxing glass with an added nastiness, bodying perimeter movement, and - most valuably - getting inside the heads of their best opponents.
Granted Curry isn't hurt this year, but the same beat-em-up grind can take him off his game. Draymond Green is every bit the same liability if provoked. Zaza Pachulia's thuggish antics will be under the tightest of scrutiny. And the Warriors - even with their pristine playoff record - come into this series still wrestling with demons of the 3-1 collapse, and LeBron quite literally testing them by himself in 2015. Saying they're vulnerable mentally isn't really an overstatement.
Let Mike Brown Live
While coaching the Warriors is more or less cruise control, there's no doubt that they'll miss Steve Kerr, from whom Mike Brown is a reasonable downgrade on the bench. While the Warriors' D - Brown's specialty - will be their main edge in this series, he scores demerits in almost every other key attribute, from in-game adjustments to offensive creativity and motivational appeal. There's a reason why he flamed out in three consecutive head coaching gigs of sharply decreasing length.
A contested playoff series is an on-the-fly battle of wits between coaches, and thus far there's been no example of how Brown responds if this team is threatened. The Finals aren't exactly the time to be figuring those things out, perhaps the only downside of their total blitzkrieg in the West.
Beat the Warriors at Their Own Game
Any team that hopes to beat Golden State over seven games had better be packing heavy artillery, having to out-gun a team that's averaging a ridiculous 118ppg. Their numbers are vaulted slightly by their massacre of the Kawhi-less Spurs: 124.5ppg on .538 and .406 from three. Perhaps the greatest testament to Kawhi's defensive value, the league's #1 D was gruesomely flayed without him.
Meanwhile, the Cavs played the Celtics largely without their worst defender, facing a tough matchup and still dropping 120ppg on .534 and .436. For the Playoffs, they're averaging only 1.5ppg fewer than the Warriors, arguably against tougher overall defense (GSW got complete walks vs the D of 2/3 opponents thus far), while shooting an outrageous 43.5% from long range, hitting 2.5 more per game than the Warriors. They can put numbers on the board in a hurry.
It was long posited that Golden State couldn't be beaten in a shootout series. But the Cavs, having finally flipped "The Switch", look ready to challenge that notion.
Have a LeBron Moment
Much as the Warriors have an array potential gamebreaking stars, the Cavs have LeBron. He's the one human capable of dominating a basketball game in more ways than anyone in history. He's playing some of the best ball of his career right now. And the once-mocked possibility of being mentioned as the G.O.A.T is very much in play for him.
The crescendo towards this series suggests, both in narrative and basketball precedent, that we're about to witness LeBron's piece de résistance. Not only has he never faced greater motivation than to crush the Warriors in this fabled grudge match and enter the Jordan debate, but LeBron has a lengthy history of exceeding big expectations.
Excluding the 2011 Finals - which any rational person can accept as an outlier that will never repeat itself - King James has managed to rise beyond pretty much every occasion, and this shouldn't be any exception.
While there are a number of catalysts for Cleveland to pull off four wins, several of them will likely have to happen at once for the Cavs to prevail. Golden State has an on-paper edge on both sides of the ball, only one of which can really be overcome. Cleveland cracked Boston's rotation-heavy pressure, but the Warriors are longer, better built to stop LeBron, and will have Draymond at peak badass. This team also has another level to attain offensively if Klay Thompson wakes up, at which point the rain might be too much.
It's frustrating that the Warriors are likely going to be validated for concocting a team so unfairly. Golden State benefitted from extremely good fortune on numerous counts, the Durant signing seemingly so flukey and greasy that the league immediately introduced measures to prevent it from happening again. Still, the Warriors pulled it off, and will carve their own niche in the NBA's annals. They'll either be remembered among the greatest teams ever, or as the team LeBron beat to become perhaps the greatest player ever. The stakes could not be higher.
If this series ran 100 times, the Cavs project to win roughly 25-28 of them (based on an advanced algorithmic system that exists only as a front for me just guessing).
Over one series? WARRIORS IN SIX.
No comments:
Post a Comment