Showing posts with label James Harden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label James Harden. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

NBA Bubble Power Rankings Part II: The Middle Class


We're back at it with Part II of the NBA Bubble Power Rankings, counting down - from worst to first - the players, teams and other things that made the bubble special.

Today we're taking a look at the bubble's Middle Class. We'll start with those that left the bubble with mixed results, and span all the way to the fringe of the Top 100 (or the top 10 percent).

If you missed Part I: The Losers, you can check it out here. Otherwise, let's pick up where we left off...

499. Washington Wizards

I straight-up completely forgot that they were even in Orlando, so they couldn't have done anything overly embarrassing. Call it a push.

485. Khris Middleton

His 36/8/8 in a must-win Game 4 vs. Miami (largely sans Giannis) quieted some of the haters who think Freak needs a better second fiddle. Ultimately, nobody associated with the Bucks really came out of this a winner.

466. Kendrick Perkins

Perkins is quickly becoming one of the NBA's most insufferable talking heads, his half-baked hot takes served with an extra zip of arrogance and entitlement as a former player and ostensible clout-haver.

But he's also one of the most inescapable sports personalities on the internet, and got himself a Sports Illustrated cover feature, so he's doing at least something right.

451. Markieff Morris

Threw quite possibly the worst pass in NBA Finals history, but had the extreme fortune of doing so seconds after viral pariah Danny Green missed a wide-open three for the NBA championship, thus waltzing away mostly-unscathed.

440. Utah Jazz

Were spirited in defeat, especially Donovan Mitchell, who leveled up in a huge way these playoffs. But Utah fancied itself a contender coming into this season, and got bounced in the first round after choking away a 3-1 lead. Bojan Bogdanovic's injury aside, the result was sub-expectation. 

432. Fred VanVleet

426. Kelly Olynyk

419. Dennis Schroder

413. Orlando Magic

Saddled with injuries, they were more competitive than anyone expected in their opening-round loss to Milwaukee. But one of those injuries - Jonathan Isaac's second major left knee tear this calendar year - could alter the course of their franchise. 

402. Kristaps Porzingis

Speaking of untimely bum knees, Kristaps' absence had many questioning if the Clippers' upset might not have otherwise happened a round earlier. But the frequency of Zinger's leg injuries has to start becoming a red flag for a running mate to the generational Luka Doncic.

388. Daryl Morey

On one end, his team was sent packing earlier than they'd set out to, for like the sixth straight year. On the other, neither that reality nor the almost-half-billion he lost the NBA a year ago have cost him his job yet. 

379. Gordon Hayward

In one of the bubble's most bittersweet subplots, Hayward pushed himself back to playing shape after yet another injury, but had to miss the birth of his son to do so. 

362. Brian Anderson

He's no Marv Albert, but Anderson did well for himself to not lose his mind mid-broadcast on Reggie Miller and/or Chris Webber after having to repeatedly hang out with them together for hours on end. 

355. Bol Bol

346. Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi gets a bit of a pass here vs. the rest of the Clippers' roster. After all, he did just average 28/9/5/2+ for their playoff run, and at several times looked to be re-asserting himself as the very best player in the league. Unlike many of his teammates, he also kept his mouth shut for most of the season (as Kawhi does), dodging much of the backlash when they imploded. 

But the implosion is still a reality. As is the fact that the team Kawhi left behind also lost in a painfully ironic second-round Game 7, imploring many, probably Leonard himself, to wonder what might've been if he'd just stayed put. 

308. James Harden

Harden had a fairly neutral bubble. He delivered the summer's first signature game - a 49/9/8/3/3 masterpiece on 70% shooting in an OT win over Dallas on opening night, eventually being named to the All-Bubble First Team. He did more or less what was expected of him: Score 30/game, lose in the second round, everything in its place.

Houston faces a serious organizational crossroads this offseason, but Harden has little to fear. Their main goal will be to better maximize his talents, although Russell Westbrook's contract is a massive shackle.

Bonus points for, in a rare twist, delivering one of the postseason's best plays on a defensive effort.

298. Jae Crowder's shooting

It was really good. And then it really wasn't. 

277. Michael Porter Jr.

Burst onto the scene as a multi-tool scorer who has altered Denver's ceiling and possibly given them some tantalizing trade bait.

But he's also complete trash on D, and outed himself as an anti-vaxxer who thinks COVID is a government control mechanism, taking some of the shine off his breakthrough.

243. Nikola Jokic

Somewhat similar to his teammate Porter, Jokic was straight-up dominant for stretches of Denver's captivating playoff run, but his limitations on D are becoming a serious obstacle. Jokic is the worst rim protector physically possible for a player of his size, and is increasingly hunted in the pick-and-roll.

Jokic's defensive ineptitude is of far graver concern since he's the franchise player (ie definitely not being traded), spends more time on the court, and can be plausibly hidden against fewer opponents. 

But overall, these playoffs were a definite win for him, and Denver has plenty of maneuverability to help plug their defensive holes.

221. Toronto Raptors

It sucks how the Raptors went out. Pascal Siakam shrunk like he was visiting Anatomy Park. Marc Gasol mummified. The bad end of three-point variance struck Toronto in the worst way, at the worst time.

Still, their title defense, after losing Kawhi, was nothing short of remarkable. They were able to milk a few extra months as champs, and made Boston fight tooth-and-nail to finally dethrone them in the final minute of a Game 7.

202. OG Anunoby

201. Alex Caruso

200. Jaylen Brown

187. Boston Celtics

Nobody can really blame them for losing to the Heat. They played very well throughout the bubble (largely without Gordon Hayward), gutted out an impressive W over the reigning champs, and were still the youngest team in the playoffs.

They have upside and assets to spare as they continue their ascent, with Jayson Tatum now looking like a bonafide superstar.

176. Gary Trent Jr.

175. Jusuf Nurkic

174. Wenyen Gabriel

161. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs were a playoff sleeper all season. Sporting a historic offense and a sneaky-deep rotation, Dallas was seen as a very viable upset candidate, even before COVID threw the season in a blender.

They came damn close, largely without Porzingis and with Luka Doncic playing on one foot. Even in defeat they made a statement, and have arguably the brightest future of any NBA franchise. 

150. Robert Covington

149. Caris LeVert

148. Mikal Bridges

144. Portland Trail Blazers

They won the West's 8th seed, which must have felt like its own mini-championship after the all-out melee the NBA contrived. The Blazers unearthed found money in several places (Carmelo Anthony, Gary Trent Jr, Wenyen Gabriel), and played their hearts out. 

But ultimately, the Blazers are largely still a one-way team with a fairly low ceiling. They've run it back for a half-decade as non-contenders, and look to be a major roster shift away from a breakthrough.

But for one brief moment, they took the NBA by storm. 

125. Serge Ibaka

124. Jeff Green

123. Jerami Grant

112. Jayson Tatum

Ultimately, the Celtics (and probably the NBA) would have loved to renew their storied rivalry with the Lakers in the Finals. If Tatum has his way, they won't be held back much longer.

At 22 years old, Tatum averaged 25/10/5 with a steal & block apiece, already solidifying himself in the NBA's upper echelon of stars. An upset in the highest-variance playoff setting ever (even amid Tatum's slow starts in the ECF) can only be a slight demerit against him. 


102. Dwight Howard

Dwight has been one of the most-scorned NBA players over the course of his 15-year career. Despite his Hall-of-Fame talent, pretty much everything else about him has made him incongruent to winning basketball.

After forcing his way out of Orlando in the most awkward and pretentious way possible, Howard bounced around the NBA for the better part of the last decade, always finding some way to ostracize himself. 

His signing by the Lakers was a gesture of mutual desperation, and many felt it was doomed for disaster with LeBron's championship aspirations and the lack of any evidence that Dwight could conform and behave. 

Well, he did. Howard was one of the NBA's best bench big men all year. By the Finals, he was starting. And now, after a highly turbulent career was written off by virtually everyone, he's an NBA champion.

Stay tuned for the Best of the Bubble, dropping soon...

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Banter's 2019 NBA Awards

Welcome, one and all to Basketball Banter's 2019 NBA Awards!

Obviously, it's been a while since I've posted on here; my last Banter post was 2018's Awards, exactly a year ago today.

I unfortunately have less time for writing these days, and that quota is largely devoted to my Memphis Grizzlies work for Beale Street Bears. But I felt inspired to knock the dust off my Blogger account this week, and toss my 2019 awards picks (however insignificantly) into the internet zeitgeist.

Let's get into it (stats accurate as of 04/10):

All-Rookie Teams
First Team: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander



Second Team: Jaren Jackson Jr, Mitchell Robinson, Collin Sexton, Kevin Knox, Kevin Huerter



ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: LUKA DONCIC
With his soggy build and lack of athleticism, many pundits questioned Doncic's NBA impact, despite him having dominated the World's second-best basketball league as a teenager.

It took just games for him to silence even the staunchest critics. Within weeks he was an internet phenomenon. By December, he was being compared to the best rookies ever. And by 2019, he was a nightly threat to drop a triple-double.

The end result is an absolute romp of a debut: 21.2/7.8/6.0. For context, Doncic averaged more points, assists and rebounds than LeBron James did in his rookie year, despite playing 23% fewer minutes per game. He also topped Rookie LeBron in most major advanced metrics.

Doncic was a one-man offense; converting on high-difficulty shots and passes time and again. His pedigree and instant success denied him any early grace period where a rookie is taken lightly. Guys went at him from the get.

The Rookie 20/5/5 Club is pretty exclusive: Doncic and James join Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and for some reason Tyreke Evans. Unless we're being guided by the outlier, this is indicative of a generational talent.

Much respect to Trae Young, who went completely nuclear over the season's second half, triggering a surprisingly-competent Hawks turnaround (despite being the NBA's literal worst defender). Notwithstanding, Doncic's rookie season was one of the finest on record; pure piff from the first tip.

Regards To: Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley


SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: MONTREZL HARRELL

Ironically, this award mainly comes down to two teammates. Un-ironically, they both hail from the scrappy, star-less overachievers that were this season's Los Angeles Clippers.

Lou Williams is a two-time former 6MOY winner, who dropped 20/game this year and was constant offense for a team that had often had no alpha scorer.

But if you dig a little deeper than points, Harrell's all-around impact on the Clippers is not debatable. He led the entire team in VORP, BPM, DBPM, win-shares, and PER (among qualifying players, sorry Boban). He also posted significantly higher ratings than Williams on both sides of the ball.

While there's plenty of blame to go around for the Clippers' refusal to die this season, many of the numbers paint Harrell as the chief culprit. His rugged hustle, relentless motor and consistent, high-IQ play were a model for the rest of L.A. (the Clippers, at least) to follow.

Regards To: Lou Williams, Domantas Sabonis, Derrick Rose



COACH OF THE YEAR: MIKE MALONE

As it's consistently been in years past, Coach of the Year was a bastion of arbitrariness again this year, fought for by several deserving candidates.

I can't knock a vote for Nate McMillan, who dragged the Pacers to another over-achieving season despite a slew of injuries. Nor for Doc Rivers, who Frankensteined a playoff team out of the Clippers' attempted rebuild.

Fringe contenders like Dave Jeorger, Kenny Atkinson, Nick Nurse and Steve Clifford also hold weight, but two candidates stand above the rest here: Mike Budenholzer, and Malone.

All due respect to Budenholzer, but I generally feel Milwaukee's season is as much an indictment of previous coaching as it is his triumph. It's also a massive chicken-or-egg race between he and Executive of the Year contender Jon Horst.

Last year's Bucks were a stacked squad that was highly maligned and misused. Adding Brook Lopez and a couple other pieces unlocked their potential, but spacing the floor around a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo is pretty basic stuff.

What sets Malone apart is how multi-faceted his performance was. The Nuggets were primed to make a leap this year, but many had them pegged for a mid-playoff team. Instead they jostled with the Warriors atop the West for months, despite prolonged absences to several key players.

Malone got the Nuggets to play top-10 defense, turning everyone's preseason concern about them into a strength. He milked max value out of former nobodies like Malik Beasley, Torrey Craig and Monte Morris, the latter of whom is now among the NBA's best backup PGs. And he maintained consistent success amid a violently oscillating lineup structure, with guys like Gary Harris out every other night, Trey Lyles wildly inconsistent, and Isaiah Thomas ultimately a dud.

Lots of deserving campaigns again, but Malone perhaps did the most with the least, and it was more than anyone - even at full strength - expected of Denver.

Regards to: Mike Budenholzer, Nate McMillan, Doc Rivers


MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: PASCAL SIAKAM
What after a few weeks looked like De'Aaron Fox's award to lose was snared by Siakam's out-of-nowhere ascent to likely future All-Star. Fox could've put up a fight, but he staggered a bit as the season went on, along with the Kings' playoff hopes.

Conversely Siakam became a breakout sensation for a Raptors team that went almost half the season missing Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, or both. They still managed to win almost 60 games, buoyed by amazing depth and Siakam's two-way brilliance.

Siakam's numbers surged across the board, including a leap from .508 to .549 shooting, despite almost doubling his attempts per game, and certainly commanding more attention from defenders. Siakam was indispensable on D himself, one of the league's most switchable players, with long limbs, ridiculous motor, and an increasing sense of awareness.

Siakam's case is more bolstered by Toronto's success, and the organic nature of his development therein. Nothing was ascribed about his role this season, nor was there much room for error in the pressure cooker of a Leonard contract year.

What Siakam's given the Raptors is instant Leonard insurance. If Kawhi stays, they'll have one of the scariest frontcourts in the NBA. But even if he leaves, Toronto might not be in such bad shape.

Regards To: De'Aaron Fox, D'Angelo Russell, Paul George


All-Defense Teams
First Team: G-Marcus Smart, G-Jrue Holiday, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Eric Bledsoe, G-Patrick Beverley, F-Derrick Favors, F-Anthony Davis, C-Myles Turner


DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO
Lots of people are going to try and give this award to somebody else, on account of Antetokounmpo's MVP-esque campaign, and that somehow cannibalizing his case here.

If you're looking at the DPOY race impartially, it has to go to either Antetokounmpo, or reigning champ Rudy Gobert. And there are mere hairs between them as candidates. Both are ultimate disruptions, who shoulder each other at or near the top of every major defensive metric, and anchor the NBA's two best team defenses. Both grab a ton of rebounds, and avg 2.5-3 stocks per game.

While Gobert is both the ultimate deterrent and penalty against ill-advised forays to the rim, Giannis is a shape-shifting eraser, who can lock up swingmen as easily as snuff the league's best center. His position-amorphous style is increasingly indicative of NBA trends, and thus of great advantage to the Bucks, who can switch him onto literally any attacker, and bust up otherwise-commonplace pick-n-rolls. It's not an exaggeration that Antetokounmpo is the NBA's single most versatile defender.

As recently as last month, Giannis had a decent edge. Gobert made an impressive late season rally to tighten the individual metrics gap, pull Utah to 50 wins, and nudge them right behind Milwaukee in team defense.

It's at least made the decision extremely difficult, but if we're judging the entire body of work here, and analyzing within the context of an increasingly perimeter-oriented league, Giannis wins by the slimmest of margins.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Paul George, Myles Turner


All-NBA Teams
First Team: G-James Harden, G-Stephen Curry, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Joel Embiid

Second Team: G-Damian Lillard, G-Kyrie Irving, F-Kevin Durant, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Nikola Jokic

Third Team: G-Bradley Beal, G-Russell Westbrook, F-Blake Griffin, F-LeBron James, C-Rudy Gobert


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO

This was tough. This was really, really tough. Honestly, I'd have voted for co-MVP between Giannis and James Harden if I could, but that's too much of a cop-out.

Harden pulled possibly the biggest "Team On My Back" in NBA history. The Rockets confounded the entire NBA with their ineptitude over the season's first two months, but Harden righted the ship with a simply staggering offensive display.

Let the record show that he averaged almost 44 points for an entire fucking month, and had teams literally opening driving lanes for him to prevent his patented step-back three.

Even amid his exaggerated sometimes-sleepy defense, Harden's contributions were Herculean. His 36 ppg average is the most ever by someone not named Michael Jordan or Wilt Chamberlain; his game log peppered with triple-doubles and single-handed victories. As a result, Houston skyrocketed (sorry) from the West's basement to a homecourt seed, without both Chris Paul and Clint Capela for long stretches. It was nothing short of a historic season.

But Antetokounpo's case is just too bulletproof. He too had a historic year; the first guy to post averages of 27/12/5 in over 50 years. Of that rarefied list - on which he joins four straight-up NBA legends - Giannis posted by far the best eFG%, adding all-World defense for good measure. He sits neck-and-neck with Harden atop virtually every major advanced stat, bolstering one of the finest all-around statistical displays ever.

With two all-time great seasons placing Harden vs Antetokounmpo head & shoulders above the rest, Freak has the decisive edge in two areas:

1 - Defense. Harden's defensive commitment wanes from night to night, and even play to play. He's capable of heads-up stopping, but often mails in plays to save himself in between offensive possessions. As noted above, Antetokounmpo was (in my opinion) the NBA's best defender this year.

2 - Dominance. Houston was a total train wreck for the season's first six weeks, which definitely  can't be ignored. The Bucks' season was unimpeachable from the get; owning the NBA's best record and net rating, largely because of Giannis, and the system his unique physique and skill set permit.

It seems like robbery for Harden yet again. This could be his third narrow MVP loss in the past four years. But Giannis' steady ascent to the NBA's very peak reached its destination this season. He's 24 years old; his best is still yet to come.

Regards To: James Harden, Paul George, Joel Embiid

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Basketball Banter's 2018 NBA Awards

Coming to you live from my parents' place where I'm recovering from foot surgery, it's the 2018 Basketball Banter Awards!

Let's face it; you're not here for an intro. You're going to read fourteen awards columns this week anyway, most with intros saying more or less the same thing. I'll spare you the agony here; on with the show:

ALL-ROOKIE TEAMS
FIRST
G-Ben Simmons, G-Donovan Mitchell, F-Kyle Kuzma, F-Jayson Tatum, C-Lauri Markkanen

SECOND
G-Dennis Smith Jr, G-Bogdan Bogdanovic, F-Dillon Brooks, F-John Collins, C-Jarrett Allen

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - BEN SIMMONS
In a harvest plentiful of talent, two first year (technically) phenoms rose above the rest and made this award truly painful to figure out. The beef is legit here; it's a very close race.

In one corner, Donovan Mitchell single-handedly saved Utah's season, coming out of nowhere as a dynamic lead scorer on a team bereft of offense. His unlikely role in the Jazz's equally-unlikely ascension to homecourt in the West is a convenient narrative.

But there's also Simmons, who despite his much-trumpeted aversion to threes does so much at an elite level right from the get.

He's already one of the NBA's best playmakers, with that rare  LeBron/Nash/Rubio third eye for passing lanes. He's lethal off the dribble; a soft finisher who's too long for guards and too quick for bigs. And on D he's a prototypical uber-stopper who can switch between all positions and is highly mismatch-proof.

His numbers are unique and speak for themselves. Unlike virtually all top picks, he earned his for a playoff team that - pending Joel Embiid's return - will be terrifying for a core making its postseason debut.

Regards To: Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Kyle Kuzma

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR - LOU WILLIAMS 

Any time a sixth man is legitimately part of the All-Star discussion (let alone in a conference as
talent-packed as the West), this award is pretty much a wrap.

The Clippers were hit with wave after wave of injuries and seismic trades this year. Nightly they trotted out hastily-cobbled replacement rosters whose anonymity quickly became a running joke in NBA circles.

Yet somehow they remained competitive far longer than conceivable, clawing for a playoff berth until the season's final days. Doc Rivers seriously redeemed himself as a coach, but Williams was indispensable as go-to offense while Blake Griffin was either injured or traded. Lou BBQ'ed just about every team in the league during a Dec-Jan stretch that ranked among the season's loudest statements by any team or player.

Sure, he's not exactly a stout defender, and the Clippers did end up missing the playoffs. But this award has never been about two-way play or team success. Lou only checks a couple boxes, but does them with enough force to make this a landslide win.

Regards To: Fred VanVleet, Eric Gordon, Will Barton

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER - VICTOR OLADIPO

The most obvious of the award winners is also perhaps the most unlikely. Oladipo arrived in Indiana with his career firmly in neutral after several seasons of Orlando’s dysfunction and Russell Westbrook’s megalomania. He had the pedigree of a #2 pick, but doubts were beginning to grow that any upside remained.

We'll never know exactly what got to Vic. Maybe it was one too many look-offs from Russ. Maybe it was hearing all summer how badly Indiana was ostensibly robbed for Paul George. Whatever it was, something....changed.

Like he stumbled across a video game power-up, Oladipo ascended overnight to a level none of us knew he had. He was dropping 20+ nightly on more efficient shooting clips, while also raising his stats across the board; enough so in steals to lead the league.

Oladipo's emancipation coincided with the Pacers' wholly-unforeseen return to the West playoffs. He firmly claimed Indiana's top-dog status before Myles Turner could even get back on the court. As a result, the George trade has been heavily re-evaluated (word to Domantas Sabonis), and Indiana's "rebuild" lasted only a couple of weeks. 

Regards To: Spencer Dinwiddie, Demar DeRozan, Andre Drummond

ALL-DEFENSE TEAMS
FIRST
G-Chris Paul, G-Jimmy Butler, F-Draymond Green, F-Anthony Davis, C-Rudy Gobert

SECOND
G-Ben Simmons, G-Jrue Holiday, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Kevin Durant, C-Joel Embiid

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - ANTHONY DAVIS
Very strange year for DPOY voting. Kawhi Leonard - the default pick - played in like two games. Draymond Green - the reigning champ - spent many games in cruise control, and had his candidacy largely neutered  by his own teammate.

Rudy Gobert - who was widely-regarded as being an injury-free season away from the award - inevitably got injured. What this award comes down to is whether anyone else did enough to outweigh the 26 games he missed.

Some may see Gobert's impact as undeniable for a Jazz team that played within a hair of the league's best defensive rating and far exceeded projections. But Davis was just too much of a force, particularly over the back half of the season when he turned the NBA into his own Marvel movie.

Brow led the league in blocks by a mile, while finishing fifth in rebounds and 15th in steals. If the raw numbers don't impress enough, he was third in defensive win shares, and 11th in defensive rating. He was also practically the only Pelican with over 50 appearances and a positive DBPM (Jrue Holiday's 0.3 hardly counts).

A motivated Davis is also one of the rare players whose absurd numbers still betray "eye test" intangibles. The Brow offers dynamic disruption unlike few others; a high-IQ stopper with an apex combination of length and quick leaping, who can close out on a quick wing just as easily as he can erase a floater or smother a low-post brute.

It was long-posited that Davis had all the tools to become a revolutionary stopper. He hasn't even given us the full treatment yet, but in this season of would-be candidates, it's enough for the trophy.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green/Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid



COACH OF THE YEAR - BRAD STEVENS 
Trying to sort out coach of the year is always s bit of a mindfuck, since it’s arguably the most arbitrary of all the awards, and usually predicated on some unforeseen circumstance altering a team’s season (#narratives). 

This year was especially difficult with a litany of coaches running convincing campaigns: Terry Stotts defied expectations again by piloting the Blazers to the top of the West’s bloated midsection. Nate McMillan did the same with the Pacers in the East, in an even less likely case. Dwayne Casey re-animated Toronto’s offense, unearthing the NBA’s best bench in the process.

Quin Snyder dealt with his usual onslaught of injuries, keeping the lotto-projected Jazz competitive. Doc Rivers went from "how does he still have a job" to "how is his team still in the playoff hunt". And even reigning champ Mike D’Antoni put on an epic title defense, withstanding injuries to both his stars while snaring the seemingly-untouchable #1 seed from Golden State.  

But Stevens was Optimus Prime this year. The Celtics have absolutely zero business being anywhere near the East’s #1 seed. Not after flipping 2/3 of their roster, losing Gordon Hayward five minutes into the season, and having their last month torpedoed by injuries to their best player and whole rotation. 

There’s a mounting body of evidence that suggests Stevens is the NBA’s neo-Popovich: from his teams annually exceeding expectation, to his X and Os wizardry, maximization of unconventional lineups, and the ongoing regressions of players Boston trades away. One could make the argument that Stevens is beginning to deserve the same default vote of confidence many voters have awarded Pop for years. 

Weigh the result of his season against all the obstacles he faced, and it’s tough to compute a different winner for this award.

Regards To: Quin Snyder, Nate McMillan, Terry Stotts

ALL NBA TEAMS
FIRST
G-James Harden, G-Damian Lillard, F-LeBron James, F-Kevin Durant, C-Anthony Davis

SECOND

G-Russell Westbrook, G-Demar DeRozan, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-LaMarcus Aldridge C-Joel Embiid

THIRD 
G-Chris Paul, G-Victor Oladipo, F-Jimmy Butler, F-Karl-Anthony Towns, C-Al Horford

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER - JAMES HARDEN 
And so, the odyssey of a player who seemed destined for Susan Lucci status after several seasons of narrow MVP misses is capped.

While LeBron James and Anthony Davis both mounted formidable late rallies and made this award at least a debate, ultimately Harden's candidacy had built itself too strong a stratosphere to be punctured.

Davis responded to DeMarcus Cousins' injury with a catastrophic 30/12/3.5blk/1.5stl post-All Star
split that has - against all likelihood - kept the Pelicans in the playoffs. LeBron had flat-out one of the best seasons in a 15-year career that is unequaled in the longevity of its all-around dominance.

On the flip side, when Cousins was healthy, Davis wasn't even the Pelicans' best player for stretches. And LeBron's agelessness aside, this season was a multi-faceted disaster for the rest of the Cavs, which - fair or not - kind of hurts his case.

Harden meanwhile has meshed seamlessly with Chris Paul, without giving up an iota of his role as Houston's driving force. His assists and rebound numbers dipped (natural with Paul's arrival and Clint Capela's emergence), but Harden's 31/5/9 line is a monster output, on a sublime .620 TS%.

For those unimpressed by "popcorn stats", he demolished advanced metrics, leading the league in win shares, PER, BPM and USG%, finishing behind only LeBron in VORP.

All this while powering a 66-win juggernaut that did the almost-unthinkable in nabbing the West's #1 seed from Golden State, despite on-the-low not being so healthy themselves.

Reputation nods aside, it was Harden's turn this year, and he made a case that was impossible to ignore.

Regards To: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard

Friday, January 20, 2017

Banter's 2017 NBA All-Star Starters

I usually spend this opening paragraph rattling off some semi-cliché rant about the bastardization of the All-Star selection process, tainted by the competency of the average voter (which seems to be a common issue these days).

But just as the situation reached peak popularity contest and Zaza Fucking Pachulia was about to start in an actual NBA All-Star Game, the Adam Silver Innovation Wave washed over, giving me slightly less to worry about.

Half of the voting is now comprised of ballots from the media and players, who while capable of dubiousness themselves, are generally far more sane and educated than NBA Fan X. This adjustment may just push us past the days of the Yao Ming Exception, much like the elimination of the center position on the ballot delivered us from Jamal Magloire.

The system still isn't perfect - a guy averaging a triple-double apparently isn't starter-worthy - but it's absolutely a step in the right direction. A title that will eventually help shape a player's legacy (and in some cases be used as a Hall of Fame yardstick) deserves as much respect.

With the voting in safer hands, the competition for All-Star spots has fallen into a predictable pattern this year; a facile cakewalk in the East and an absolute bloodbath out West. Who's shone brightest so far? Here are the most deserving participants, beginning with the Starters:

EAST STARTERS

G - KYLE LOWRY, TORONTO RAPTORS

Even though the Celtics are only just now finding healthy legs, the Raptors have held

court as the East's 2nd-best team, led by Lowry's sublimely efficient scoring/playmaking, and bulldog defense. Scoring a career-high 22ppg on a completely incredulous .589 eFG% (ninth in the NBA and tops among all guards), Lowry's a staple in all of the Raptors' best lineups, leading a historically-great offense. His dominance is so consistent that one of the NBA's deadliest lineups this year - simply called "Lowry + Bench", features him and four Raptors reserves.

Some misled pundits and fans have attributed Toronto's offensive ascent to Demar DeRozan's scoring spree, slotting him as a backcourt starter. But both the eye test and RPM (where Lowry sits second league-wide, to DeRozan's 114th) suggest Lowry's all-around superiority, and true vitality in the Raptors' success.


G - ISAIAH THOMAS, BOSTON CELTICS

Lowry isn't the only East guard on a torrid offensive streak. Thomas is currently dropping 28.7ppg on .537 eFG%, which is great for any guard, and outright absurd for one who's 5'9". Thomas has become a fearless neo-Iverson, only smaller and more efficient. His whirlwind attacks of the hoop keep defenses constantly guessing, and powered the Celtics through a slew of early key injuries.

Thomas may be a bit of a one-way player, but it's tough to blame a guy for defensive shortcomings (get it) when any player he faces can easily outreach or shoot over him. I'd prefer to focus on his league-leading fourth-quarter scoring, on a team currently ranked fifth in close-game win %. Thomas is a flat-out killer.

While John Wall's been sublime this season, the Wizards started off pitifully, and only recently broke the .500 barrier. Thomas has led a better, injury-hampered team all season, giving him the edge in a close race.

F - JIMMY BUTLER, CHICAGO BULLS

Things are kind of going to shit in Chicago, now that their early 3-point charade has been exposed, and the Rajon Rondo Experience has hit worst-case-scenario. While the Bulls franchise implodes around him, Butler's been his ever-stellar self; a top-tier player on both sides of the ball with an underrated killer instinct.

Despite ball-stopping and lane clogging from Wade and (before his benching) Rondo, Butler's boosted his scoring by 19% to a career-high 24.8, getting to the line far more (9.7 FTA vs 7.1 last year) and hitting a career-best .866 while there. He's also posted a noticeable career-best in rebounds, while matching his best assist numbers, doing so with peak efficiency - his 25.9 PER is good for 10th overall.

The Bulls owe Butler a great debt for being anywhere near the playoffs right now (he's third in the league in win shares; mildly anomalous on a sub-.500 team). With justice it will come in the form of better surroundings, whether in Chicago or elsewhere.

F - LEBRON JAMES, CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

LeBron's write-up for an East starting spot might be the most trite, useless words I wrangle together on a yearly basis. You know why he's here, and that he has to be, and that him starting in this game has become as much an annual certainty as taxes, Christmas, and DeMarcus Cousins trade rumors.

But just so he's not taken completely for granted, let the record show Bron has resurrected his 3-point shot (.375 on 4.8 attempts vs .309 on 3.7 last year), while tying his career high rebs+assts in his 14th season.

F - GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS

This escalated quickly. Most of us knew to brace ourselves for more exponential improvement from the Greek Freak, but he's unleashing an extinction-level event upon the NBA. He's lifted the Bucks to improbable status as a likely playoff team, while leading them in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and field goal%. If you think that's impressive, he's also threatening to be the first player to Top-20 all those categories since nobody. Ever.

We're witnessing a revolution, it is televised (if you have League Pass or live in Wisconsin), and it literally defies adjectives. Antetokounmpo does things we've never seen before, with gazelle-like grace and Stretch Armstrong-like elasticity. He's already a historically versatile force, sits 2nd in the NBA in PER, has arguably been the East's best player so far, and - here's the fun part - is 22 years old.


WEST STARTERS

G - RUSSELL WESTBROOK, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


There's really only so much that needs to be said here beyond "He's averaging a triple-double", but I'll entertain the explanation:

Westbrook's not only on a shocking course to contest one of sports' most untouchable records, but he's doing so as the league's leading scorer, on a team that's a mortal lock for the playoffs. Westbrook is the Thunder as they weather Kevin Durant's departure, on pace to shatter the NBA's single-season usage rate record. His offensive RPM is bested only by James Harden, while sitting fifth in overall RPM.

What he lacks in efficiency, Westbrook more than makes up for in pure omnipresence, even amid a constant defensive swarm as his team's only major threat. Bound by laws of physics and energy unfamiliar to us mere mortals, he's a thrill to watch, and a total nightmare to try and contain.

G - JAMES HARDEN, HOUSTON ROCKETS

While Harden was already essentially a point guard (and MVP candidate), his insertion into the Mike D'Antoni Stat Steroid System has produced some incredible results. The Beard is accounting for the most offense of anyone in the NBA, scoring just under 29/game while dishing a (by far) league-leading 11.7 dimes.

Pick on his defense if you will (at least he's starting to show signs), but Houston isn't about D; they're openly bad at it. They're just going to outscore you, and so far they've done it far beyond anyone's expectations, as the 3-seed out West, once projected as low-rung playoff fodder at best.

Moreyball found its apex coach, and surrounded Harden with a bounty of elite shooters - he's taken full advantage.

F - KEVIN DURANT, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

It takes a pretty darn good player to walk into a whirlwind offensive juggernaut like the Golden State Warriors, and firmly commandeer it from the two-time reigning MVP.

Durant has done just that, relegating Steph Curry's role with a sublime offensive display. Aside from performing his most efficient scoring masterpiece yet, Durant's elevated his D to arguable All-Defense contention, finally tapping into the disruption his length allows him to cause on that end.

The Warriors have undoubtedly had a couple hiccups; every alignment of superstars does while they feel each other out. But they're still the NBA's best team, and Durant's their best player, so he has to be here.

F - KAWHI LEONARD, SAN ANTONIO SPURS

It's sickening how consistent the Spurs are. In what's very much a transition season for them - as much as transition exists in San Antonio - they're still motoring along exactly where they should be; slightly behind Golden State and slightly ahead of everyone else.

Leonard, as expected, has taken on a greater offensive load, while posting an elite 28.35 PER (good for third overall), and providing the same peerless defense. Leonard's defensive RPM has taken a hit (down to a pedestrian .99 - by far a career-low) because he now shares the court with several minus defenders instead of Tim Duncan, but he still manages to post a top-10 6.22 RPM overall.

Leonard's come along steadily; gradually evolving each season to a new level of beast. He's the NBA's two-way zenith, and enough reason in himself for Pop to keep coaching in the AD (anno Duncan).

F - MARC GASOL, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
I tried my damndest to give this spot to Anthony Davis. The Brow's put up a superlative season so far, but ultimately the Pelicans just suck a little too much.


While Gasol might seem like a homer pick by a Grizzlies fan, he's got a ton working in his favor. Memphis is sixth in the West; somewhere they have absolutely no business being, given they lost Mike Conley for 12 games, have hardly seen Chandler Parsons, and sport a new coach with a rag-tag supporting cast that was wholly unproven prior to this year.

Heaps of credit have to go to Gasol; beyond his usual all-around beastery, he's extended his range on offense, giving the Grizz the spacing they need to adapt and survive in the modern NBA. He operates outside his traditional comfort zone, moonlighting as both perimeter gunner and playmaker. The ensuing space allows Zach Randolph to operate in the post undeterred, opens cutting lanes for Tony Allen, and gives Memphis' youngsters plenty of room to breathe.

He's also been a cold-hearted murderer down the stretch in a litany of close Memphis wins, coming up with huge plays on both sides of the ball, and nailing numerous game-winners. His stats don't jump off the page like Davis', but he's as well-rounded as elite centers come, and has done as much through adjustments and clutch performances to help his team as anyone in the league this year.


Stay tuned for the reserves, coming next week! 

Friday, April 17, 2015

Banter's 2015 NBA Awards

Coming to you on tape delay from a kush-shrouded computer desk in Halifax, Nova Scotia; it's the official unveiling of Basketball Banter's 2015 NBA Awards!!!

This season was admittedly a little bit of an adjustment for me and my NBA addiction; I watched noticeably less basketball this year, the least I have since getting League Pass six years ago.

I spent most of the '13-'14 season on Torn Achilles Island, so LP was my best friend. The previous three seasons, I was unemployed and playing online poker for most of my income; my nightly routine was a bunch of tournament tables on one screen, and the evening's premiere matchup on the other.

Opening and managing a restaurant proved to be slightly more constricting; I was working more than ever this season, having to cover an array of hours and get business done on-demand. Obviously this left me with a little less time to channel-surf NBA games and mindlessly rant about my observations on here. But it also taught me plenty about time management; I came on strong after the All-Star break, sorta like the Spurs only less awesome. I took in more games - whether live or replayed - getting back into a familiar zone after missing too much 'Amazing' this NBA season.

This year's playoffs are going to be something special, but before we get to those, it's time to look back on the past six months and hand out some hardware to those that showed out this season. So without further ado...

All-Rookie Teams
First: G-Elfrid Payton,G-Jordan Clarkson,F-Andrew Wiggins,F-Nikola Mirotic,C-Nerlens Noel
 Second: G-Zach LaVine, G-Rodney Hood, F-KJ McDaniels, F-Tarik Black, C-Jusuf Nurkic

Rookie of the Year: Andrew Wiggins


After Jabari Parker went down with an ACL tear a month into the season (sigh), Wiggins started absolutely crushing this award, looking like a unanimous choice. Since then, the gap has narrowed considerably with Mirotic, Noel and Payton all having stellar second halves. Narrowed, but not closed.

Wiggins was dominant for a first-year player. He led rookies in scoring by a mile (17ppg; the next-closest was 12), while being a very good defender, with a more well-rounded skill set than anyone gave him credit for coming out of Kansas. Unlike the other contenders here, he excelled all season long, and even though the Wolves were a disaster this season, Wiggins was often a lone bright spot. He's reason in-and-of himself for them to be optimistic about the future (and ecstatic about the Kevin Love trade).
Regards to: Nikola Mirotic, Nerlens Noel, Elfrid Payton

Coach of the Year: Mike Budenholzer

I was sincerely torn here. As recently as yesterday I was ready to give this award to Brad Stevens (who got Boston to the playoffs - albeit in the East - despite one of the NBA's least-talented rosters, a slew of injuries and his own front office's intentions to tank), but felt maybe I was just being a biiiit too much of a contrarian.

To deny Bud would be to ignore the impeccable job he's done in getting the Hawks to smash expectations on both sides of the ball with the most seamless, selfless play we've seen outside of San Antonio. The Hawks were shockingly dominant this season, playing above the sum of their parts and making believers out of every possible critic. Bud got everyone to buy into the team-first concept, milked the most out of his whole roster, and sustained excellence through the entire season.
Regards to: Brad Stevens, Steve Kerr, Jason Kidd

Sixth Man of the Year: Isaiah Thomas
Of course the one thing the Celtics' front office did to actually help this year's product was to swipe Thomas from Phoenix's backcourt meltdown at a very fair price.

In a season where nobody really stepped up to claim this award, Thomas wins sorta by default, as the 6th Man with the smallest hole(s) in his case. Jamal Crawford was predictably shitty on defense and shot under 40% from the floor. Ryan Anderson was almost as terrible on D and missed a quarter of the season. Lou Williams was grossly one-dimensional and put up his best performances in the absence of starters (both Demar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry).

Thomas meanwhile led all full-time bench players in both scoring and assists, averaging 19/5 for the Celtics to help push them towards the playoffs. He's likely never going to be a starter for a winning team, but Thomas may have found his niche already as a pocket-rocket who can carry a second unit's scoring.
Regards to: Lou Williams, Ryan Anderson, Jamal Crawford

Most Improved Player: Draymond Green
Let's be honest here: nobody saw this coming. Even though Green was a tough, dynamic bench player last year, "Draymond Green will become a borderline All-Star and one of the NBA's most versatile players this year" would've made you sound like a bonafide base-head last October.

Obviously it didn't hurt that David Lee went down to star the year, but Green came out on fire and made Lee's bench demotion a total must within two weeks. He didn't really cool off after; he was one of the NBA's better-passing forwards, he expanded his offensive game, and he was just a total menace on defense, whether chasing a stretch big on the perimeter or bodying someone in the low post. For perspective; he was paid $915,243 this year, and very well might ink a max deal this summer.

Props have to go to Jimmy Butler, who also made an eye-popping offensive improvement this year, and lost very narrowly. In the end, it was Green's leaps on both sides of the ball that sealed this in my books.
Regards to: Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Donatas Motiejunas


All-Defense Teams
First: G-Chris Paul, G-Tony Allen, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Rudy Gobert
Second: G-Klay Thompson, G-Jimmy Butler, F-Anthony Davis, F-Serge Ibaka, C-DeAndre Jordan

Defensive Player of the Year: Kawhi Leonard
DPOY is usually a 'big man's award', and while that isn't likely to change much with the advent of defensive metrics and every NBA pundit getting a boner for 'rim protection', this season needs to be an exception because Kawhi Leonard is just that good.

He might be a cyborg that RC Buford and Gregg Popovich secretly-developed to stop LeBron James and Kevin Durant; he's got not only the size and length but all the tools of an apex perimeter defender: long arms and freakishly huge hands, potent lateral quickness, great instincts, precise timing, and the perfect mix of zen-like calm and 'just fucking try and get by me' shoulder-chippage.

He makes what he does look effortless in same vein as a Steph Curry three or a LeBron fast break; it just seems unfair. As would giving this award to anyone else.
Regards to: Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert

All-NBA Teams
First: G-Steph Curry, G-James Harden, F-LeBron James, F-Anthony Davis, C-Boogie Cousins
Second: G-Russell Westbrook, G-Chris Paul, F-Pau Gasol, F-LaMarcus Aldridge, C-Marc Gasol
Third: G-Klay Thompson, G-Jimmy Butler, F-Paul Millsap, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-DeAndre Jordan


Most Valuable Player: James Harden

So here we are, at the NBA's most touted individual honor, which this year was a particularly painful mind-fuck of cluttered candidacy. The decision between Harden and Curry was a brutal one that could've gone either way, with three more players (Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, Anthony Davis) also putting up very MVP-worthy seasons.

For me it comes down to a question of what "value" truly means, and by most definitions, Harden was that dude this year. He aced all the major MVP tests, while lifting a team that was hit by both offseason losses and injuries to the West's 2nd seed (and yes, I'm obviously aware that the 2nd-6th seeds were basically the same thing this year). The Warriors were an absolutely dominant team, but I'm sticking with my opinion that we need to stress the "team" part; that Curry's brilliance was lubricated by those around him.

I've had this debate with tons of hoops heads whose opinions I respect over the past weeks and months, and I continue hearing the same retort: that I can't "hold Curry's teammates against him". I'm sorry guys, but especially in a race this close, I feel like a) I absolutely can, and b) that it's not so much an assessment of Curry's teammates as it is Harden's. Between a summer exodus and injuries, Houston lost 70% of its rotation this year, and still managed to be one of the best teams in what could be the toughest conference ever. And Harden basically did everything for them, including a much-improved effort on D. I don't know what more you could ask of the guy, so I won't.
Regards to: Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, Anthony Davis

Now bring on the postseason.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

The Requisite MVP Favorites Column


"(excluding LeBron, KD and The Brow) I have as good of a chance of winning (MVP) as any remaining NBA player" -
Me, being an idiot, October 2014


Occasionally, making a bold prediction results in your words being eaten, and I've been binge-snacking on my own stupidity for several months.

The NBA is neck-deep into the most wide open MVP race the league's seen in quite some time, and not in the "has anyone really made a case for this award?" sense (see: Nash, Steve; 2005), but more "there's a lot of guys playing out of their fucking minds right now".

Depending on how you want to define "value" in the intentionally-ambiguous context of this award, it could go to any of several players, all of whom are deserving in a sense. The sudden obsession with advanced metrics has only muddied the water, adding even more facets to what was already a complex issue. Anyone with an educated MVP argument now has to consider elements like "Win Shares" and "True +/-"; concepts that for most intents and purposes didn't even exist a few years ago.

This year's MVP race has become a dizzying, confounding debate in which no fewer than five players hold very legitimate claims to the trophy, with razor-thin margins between them. It's a compelling, entertaining, all-out war for supremacy where powers trade places on a weekly basis. It's basically a Game of Thrones season playing out on a basketball court. Spring is coming, so it's almost time for the winner to be crowned - who stands the best shot?

The Pretenders
These are the guys on the outside looking in; the ones who've heard their name and "MVP" in the same sentence a couple times this year, but mostly by under-educated fans or attention-seeking media, and usually in conjunction with alcohol or meth consumption:

- DeMarcus Cousins (has had a very good year for a very dysfunctional franchise)

- Jeff Teague (sorry, but if you think one player on Atlanta deserves to be singled out in the MVP race, you're completely delusional about what makes them successful)

- Klay Thompson & Damian Lillard (if you're not your own team's MVP, you can't be the league's MVP) 

The Tweeners
These guys have had absolutely stellar seasons that in any lesser year would surely be legitimate MVP campaigns, but can't quite call themselves contenders in 2015:

- Chris Paul (as superb as he's been in a snapshot, the Clippers have just been way too inconsistent, while CP3 has oscillated between mailing-in stretches and taking over games)

- LaMarcus Aldridge (decided to forego hand surgery that would've sent Portland's season straight into the toilet, and instead has put up sublimely-efficient 20/10 lines for a likely Top-4 seed out West)

 - Marc Gasol (got off to a torrid start, only to see his output dissipate slightly amid a recent slump for Memphis, who are showing cracks for the first time all season)

The Contenders
.
..And here are the five players who are going to make picking an MVP this year an outright nightmare:

Anthony Davis


Davis just turned 22, and he's already a WMD on both sides of the ball, and terrifying the entire league with what they're in store for over the next decade. His defensive dominance and all-around brilliance are incredibly precocious, and he's carried an injury-ravaged Pelicans squad to within striking distance of the NBA's promise land: The West Playoffs.

Davis' odds of winning are likely heavily-predicated on that stupidly arbitrary benchmark of New Orleans making the Playoffs, which seems unlikely after they dropped four straight, falling to 10th in the West. That said, it bears noting that he's on pace for a PER of 31.31, a mark bested ever only by Wilt Chamberlain, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan. Again, this guy is 22 years old. He stands a very slim chance of winning MVP this year, but will certainly be filling that void in his trophy case soon.

LeBron James


The season started off in pretty disastrous fashion for the Default MVP; the Cavs were underwhelmingly crappy, and LeBron was, by his own lofty standards, casual and sluggish. There was much ado about all the miles his herculean body had logged, his ability to placate a ball-dominatrix like Kyrie Irving, and David Blatt's viability as an NBA coach.

Then LeBron took a much-needed (and more-chronicled) two week siesta in South Beach, and came back every bit the dream-crusher we all knew him to be. Not-so-coincidentally, the Cavs were suddenly steamrolling their way up the East standings, and looking like the contender they were pegged as preseason.

LeBron - for the first time in ages - is likely only a fringe contender to the MVP crown this year. If we're looking at his complete body of work, his first 28 games were largely a disappointment, and then he gave himself an 8-game vacation to get right. Regardless of how much he needed it, and the results it yielded, we're talking almost half a season there. Worse yet for his case, the next three guys have put in blatantly ridiculous seasons.

Stephen Curry

Steph Curry's having an outstanding season for an outstanding team; a mind-warping offensive threat who shreds teams like few others ever have. But it's the 'outstanding team' part that should be hurting his case.


With all due respect to Curry - and to common MVP voting logic - the MVP is an individual award. There's this awkward bias toward rewarding the 'best player on the best team' - which Curry absolutely is - that misplaces the sense of the word 'valuable'.

Team success should definitely be factored into the decision, but arbitrarily rewarding that 'best player on the best team' is missing the forest for the trees. Curry's been dominant, no question, but the Warriors' thriving this season has come from many directions:

- Andrew Bogut's been extremely healthy by his standards.
- Klay Thompson's taken a mini leap to "Legitimate All-Star" and "Guy Who Scored 37 Points in a Single Quarter".
- Draymond Green holds a very serious case in both the MIP and DPOY races.
- Their bench is much deeper than it was last season.
- Steve Kerr is, by all evidence, a large upgrade over Mark Jackson on the sidelines.
- David Lee's early injury conveniently forced them into the realization that they're better with a spacing, ball-moving 4, and without Lee's ghastly defense.

Speaking of defense, it's not exactly Curry's specialty either. While he's among the league's steals leaders, he's a gambler who gets beaten off the dribble easily, and is often 'hidden' as the weakest link of Golden State's league-leading D.

Added all up, while Curry's having an offensively-transcendent season, and creates so much of the Dubs' scoring, this is still very much a dominant team that excels for a variety of reasons. Saying he's carried them for any stretch this season would be dumb and unfair, much unlike the following two players:

Russell Westbrook



What Westbrook's done to the rest of the league since returning from a hand injury probably qualifies as abuse in some countries. Attacking opposition with a bloodthirsty relentlessness, he's carried the Thunder while decimating box score sheets, defying most concepts of human stamina, and making trading Kevin Durant an actually-talked-about thing.


Dropping 49 points and a triple-double simultaneously doesn't happen very often. Neither does averaging a triple-double for an entire month. Russell Westbrook did those things to people this year. He averaged a triple-double for an entire fucking month. He even went ballistic in the All-Star game for crying out loud.

Say what you want about his shot selection and conversion rate (.427; .301 from distance), he not only finishes possessions (leads the NBA in scoring), but creates them through rebounds (leads all guards) and steals (2nd in NBA), while having to put up with Dion Waiters in the backcourt.

He's been the Thunder's one consistent heartbeat, and the reason they're likely to make the Playoffs without Durant, whose now-confirmed absence can be another feather in Westy's MVP cap if OKC closes the season strong.There will also be more time to bloat his already-absurd averages of 27/8.7/7 w 2.2 steals and a 29.60 PER (which is the second-highest ever for a point guard). Westbrook's already putting up a strong MVP case, and if any contender has the most upside over the final 10 games (which absolutely matter in a race this close), it's probably him.

James Harden 


Harden's MVP narrative is multi-faceted, and speaks most directly to the meaning of 'value'. At this point, he should probably be considered the favorite. Maybe. Sort of. Who knows.

This season was supposed to be shitty for Houston. They'd largely been regarded as last offseason's Biggest Losers, dropping half their key rotation players and fanning on a third star. Things didn't look much better when Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones both went down early with injuries that would plague them all season. All hope seemed lost, but Harden uncorked a 27/7/6 masterpiece that has highly-improbably kept Houston in the fight for homecourt in the West.

There's detractors who will incorrectly point to Harden's once-comical defense, but his efforts and positioning have improved mightily over the past 12 months, and he's averaging almost 2 steals and a block per game. There's a reason why no sequels to James Harden Defensive Juggernaut have been made.

He aces pretty much all of the key MVP criteria, the only of the contenders who can truly make these claims:

- Statistically dominant, both in basic and advanced measures? Check.

- Successful and/or better-than-expected team? Absolutely.

- Carried said team for large stretches? More-so than any other player.

- Healthy all season? Yup.

Better yet, he's the only candidate who doesn't really have any legitimate, glaring holes in a year when every minor scuff or smudge on a resume has to count. Unlike LeBron's sleepwalking through the early season, Westbrook's injury and occasional spazz-outs, Curry's all-around team brilliance or The Brow's lack thereof, there's no real knock on Harden's 2014-15 campaign. Which is why he's (maybe, sort of, who knows) the likeliest MVP at this point, but in a race this close, anything can happen over the season's final month...

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Banter's 2015 NBA All-Stars


Basketball Banter has returned after a(nother) prolonged absence, to break down the All-Star ballot and figure out who should really be playing under the Garden's bright lights next month.

Normally I'd also be handing out some midseason awards this time of year, but I just finished those up for BallOverAll this weekend as most teams crossed the 40-game threshold. I figured re-typing the whole thing would be a pretty futile exercise, so you can check out the picks here.

Now onto the All-Stars, for whom fan voting officially ended yesterday. While the 'fans' have generally gotten better at actually paying attention to the league and not just voting for the most recognizable names, their collective appraisal of a few players (#Kobe) still leaves a lot to be desired. As such we're likely to see a few deserving players get the dreaded snub, but that's something to bitch about later. For now all that can be done is to hope to coaches get it right when casting their ballots for reserves - a process that is usually a challenge in itself.

My logic in voting is based on a somewhat-abstract weight of individual performance, and team relevance so far this season. Obviously there's a certain floor for teams standards; someone on, oh...I dunno, let's just say...the Knicks, can't even be brought up. But barring a complete Hindenburg of a season by a given player's team, they'll be considered. This is the All-Star Game after all, the best teams will get their due in the Playoffs.

Further, I take into account the player' entire body of work - including the 'popcorn stats' (pts/rebs/asts, etc), efficiency indicators, importance of their contributions to the team's success, and any other intangibles (like Damian Lillard's pathological cold-bloodedness in the waning minutes of close games).

What follows is a breakdown of each conference: The Starters (two guards, three frontcourt), The Bench (two guards, three frontcourt, and two "wild card" players of any position), as well as the "Regards To" (your basic snubs, the guys who I actually considered at some point), and "Milk Carton" (perennial All-Stars who, for a variety of reasons, just weren't in the conversation).

Let's get into it:


EAST ALL-STARS

STARTERS:


Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Lowry easily could've been Toronto's All-Star last year in Demar DeRozan's stead. But this season he's channeled yet another level, becoming an elite point guard in an era where the position's just completely, utterly stacked. He's been the pace-setter for the best NBA team Canada's ever put forth, looking svelte, and playing with a gritty tenacity that belies his new fat contract (among by buddies he's affectionately known as "Pudge Lowry", a nickname we might have to retire). One of the very best guards on both sides of the ball this year, Lowry's not only a no-brainer All-Star, but a fringe MVP candidate.

Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Somewhere between sorta and completely out of nowhere, Butler evolved into one of the NBA's most effective two-way players. This past summer, he summoned a quasi-deadly off-the-bounce game from scratch, and improved his shaky jumper, becoming a welcome offensive presence for the Bulls. He still plays suffocating defense, only with the added cachet of being the go-to perimeter option that Derrick Rose hasn't consistently provided. Like Lowry, he's been a monster on both sides of the ball, and his inclusion here - despite a strong showing from John Wall - is a must.

LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

So let's face facts: The Cavs have been depressingly underwhelming over the first half of this year, and the Default MVP is having a blatantly pedestrian season by his standards. But this is LeBron we're talking about here, the Best In The Game, the guy who was relevant, pompous, good enough to have brought the NBA to a standstill and caused pop-culture cataclysm with his last two free agencies. The only thing keeping him from being a starter in this Eastern Conference is a JR Smith-related suspension.

Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are absolutely crushing right now - winners of 13 straight, comfortably atop the East, and playing a selfless, balanced game that reflects Mike Budenholzer's 17-year tenure as an assistant on the Spurs bench. They could field (in some people's opinion) as many as four contenders for spots on this team. Despite a recent a surge from Al Horford, Millsap has been their best big man, comfortable shooting form distance or in the post, and leading all PF/Cs in steals. He's also pulling down over a rebound more than Horford each game, and looking like a great alternative to the guy he replaced in ATL.

Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls
He's still got it. Buried on some gawdawful Lakers teams for a few injury-nagged seasons, the O.G. (Original Gasol) is back, as nasty as he ever was. Pau's giving Chicago 19/game with career-bests in rebounds and blocks, as one of the rare uninjured Bulls this season. His recent 46/18 pulverization of Milwaukee was one of the season's standout performances thus far, and his play is one of the main reasons nobody's counting Chicago out in the East.

BENCH:

Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
Teague's been monstrous for the Hawks, and is even getting some distant MVP burn. He plays with deadly quickness, but precise control, and is piloting the NBA's hottest team right now.

John Wall, Washington Wizards
Speaking of deadly quickness, Wall's playing extremely well and buoying the East's Dark Horse through early injuries. A near-starter.

Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
While the Heat have been pretty suspect this year, Bosh is doing what he can; rediscovering his identity as a go-to option. An easy selection in a weak conference.

Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic
It's hard to penalize Voose for playing on a crappy team, not in the East where most of the teams are pretty crappy, and he's basically doing 20/11 for a squad that's only four games back of 8th in the East, despite being fourteen games under .500.

Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons

Since exorcising Josh Smith from their roster, the Pistons are on a serious Playoff push, and Drummond has gone full Hulk Smash after a very shaky start to this year.

Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
I honestly thought Wade was going to start coming apart at the seams this year - so much for that. He's been impressive when suiting up and - despite recent shooting woes - appears to have something left in the tank.

Brandon Knight, Milwaukee Bucks
The last wild-card spot came down to a deathmatch between a bunch of guys who really didn't scream "All Star!". Knight takes the last East jersey with his strong, efficient line for (Hawks aside) the East's surprise team.

Regards to: Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Marcin Gortat, Kyle Korver, Kemba Walker

Milk Carton: Al Jefferson, Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony

...And now to head out West, where we find perhaps the most confusing, abstract clusterfuck of potential title contenders in NBA history. A lot of very talented players make up those teams, and plenty of deserving candidates won't be getting the All-Star spot they'd surely earn in the East. Life's unfair sometimes I guess.

WEST ALL-STARS
STARTERS:

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Let me first start this off by pointing out how ludicrously unfair it is to have to pick two starters from a flock of West guards that's playing in the ether right now. A theoretical MVP Top-10 right now could plausibly be half-filled with players eligible for these spots; cutting so many to the bench seemed insulting.

With that said, Steph Curry might be the MVP at this point. So he's here. Curry's just been nothing short of lethal for the NBA's surprise best team. His gaudy numbers have slid inches with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green becoming more diverse and integral offensive cogs, but the Warriors' dominance this year makes Curry's lines all the more impressive.

James Harden, Houston Rockets

Neck-and-neck with Curry for MVP, and perhaps slightly ahead by most definitions, Harden's been a nuclear force on offense (and noticeably improved defender), carrying the Rockets to one of the West's best records through a slew of first-half injuries.

Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Just when every prototype of a future power forward was supposedly a floor-spacing perimeter gunner, along came the Brow and reminded us that there will always be a place for omni-talented freak athletes with massive wingspans who bounce off the hardcourt like a trampoline. Such has been Davis' year, putting up eye-popping stat lines off of minimal touches (his usage rate is fucking 36th in the NBA. Actually.), producing one of the most all-around efficient seasons in NBA history.

Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
He's been argued as the NBA's best all-around big man for a couple seasons now, but this year Gasol's come out and just ended the debate with a well-rounded romp that's put him in the center (accidental pun) of the MVP discussion. He does everything short of filling the Gatorade coolers for Memphis, who have solidified themselves in the upper tier of West contenders.

DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
The NBA (properly) developed the "Frontcourt" designation for All-Star voting a few seasons back, to recognize the more abstract and perimeter-oriented nature of positions in today's game (and spare us from the token mediocre, clearly-not-an-"All Star" center getting an ascribed nod). Well, with freedom comes excess, and I'm using it to start two centers, along with a guy who could be one in most systems. Screw it - needs to be done.

Boogie's been Godzilla on the block this year, demoralizing teams from the low-post while becoming one of the NBA's best-passing centers, and actually trying on defense. The Kings' performance during his bout with viral meningitis was a night-and-day difference, as this former-headcase of a behemoth is finally "getting it".

BENCH:

Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
The Clips have been inconsistent through stretches this year, but it's hard to blame CP3, who's putting in a monstrous year in terms of point guard efficiency.

Damian Lillard, Portland Trailblazers
Illard, Killard, Thrillard; whatever you want to call him, he's become the most feared late-game gunner in the NBA (with good reason), and has taken his defense to new heights, propelling the Blazers to a higher level.


Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers

Griffin's fallen in love with his jumper a bit too much at times, which has seen his shooting dip below 50%. but he's still one of the game's better all-around bigs and can't be excluded from the bench.

Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Father Time once came knocking for Tim Duncan, and got a bank shot nailed from the high post over his outstretched arm. This season's been a vintage Timmy performance, still so smooth after all these years.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trailblazers
Lillard's been Portland's most high-profile monster this year, but Aldridge has been no slouch himself, defying the stigma of the mid-range jumper as the NBA's best PF with two eyebrows.

Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
He may have been injured for the season's first month, but Westbrook has just been devastating since returning, putting up MVP numbers and loudly demanding a spot, regardless of time missed.

Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
The other Splash Brother's broken through to bonafide All-Star status, with his more diverse offensive arsenal playing a key role in the Warriors' dominance this year.

Regards to: (clears throat) Mike Conley, Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Zach Randolph, Eric Bledsoe, Rudy Gay, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday & Draymond Green

Milk Carton: Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Goran Dragic, David Lee

And that's the truth. Let's hope the real rosters look something like this next month in the Big Apple.