The Start of Something Good

I usually try and avoid writing too much at the beginning of the NBA Season for 3 reasons that all stem from the same root - the small sample size of games we've seen:

1. Opinions and analysis are fickle and changing at an NFL-like rate
2. It's much harder to make educated observations and not use terms like "so far" and "it seems"
3. Many assertions are totally liable to turn upside-down and make me sound like an idiot

That said, with nearly a month gone by in the season, and 10+ games for all teams, we're beginning to see what trends are emerging with serious traction, and will play a relevant role in how this season plays out. The good news for NBA junkies is that most of it points to this season being one of heavy competition - at least outside of Philadelphia, which is where I begin my rants about some of the things that have stood out to me this season:

The Sixers are Historically Awful
Philadelphia was clearly shook after gracefully losing 26 straight games last year and not getting the Draft's top pick, or even a guy who'd play his rookie season for the second straight year. So they gutted their roster even further and now pose a very realistic threat at breaking the NBA's all-time mark for the worst single-season record at 9-73 - also held by the Sixers.

I don't like using my own NBA knowledge as a benchmark for a team's relevance, but have to in this case. I know very little about most of Philadelphia's roster (and don't feel compelled to since most of them will be out of the league soon enough) which says a thing or two about just what they're fielding this season. I take Michael Carter Williams' open letter at face value; they are  trying, it's just that their talent level is woefully outmatched by every other team in the league.

This roster's worse than the one the the that preceded it, and unfortunately for the Sixers (or perhaps fortunately for their clear motives) there aren't two handfuls of teams chasing Lotto balls this year, which makes for far fewer winnable games.


The Kings are This Year's Suns (Or are the Pelicans?)
Last night's NBA slate saw an intriguing encounter between two West upstarts seeking to break onto the Playoff scene. One of them was highly probably to ascend the conference's stiff hierarchy this year, while the other has instantly vaulted itself from lottery doormat to early-season powerhouse.

Let's settle something quickly: the Sacramento Kings aren't as good as the season's first couple of weeks suggested. Granted, they beat up on some tough competition, but have shown cracks in their consistency over the past few games, allowing New Orleans to overwhelm them offensively in last night's third quarter, while themselves losing their offensive rhythm and playing sloppy, turnover-prone ball. The same sort of meltdown cost them a seemingly-inevitable W against Memphis last week. They should be in the mix for a lower-tier Playoff spot however, with both their team defense and ball movement having improved noticeably from last year, and DeMarcus Cousins playing like a can't-miss All Star.

New Orleans will also contend for the postseason barring a serious injury. Their roster is undeniably shallow, but they field a killer 7/8-man rotation that can contort to pretty much any size opposition, and score at absurd rates when they're all clicking (and Tyreke Evans isn't in pseudo-LeBron mode). Which brings us to:

Anthony Davis Probably Isn't Human
Quick question: Who holds the NBA's all-time record for single-season PER?

You'll have to go diggin' in the crates for the answer, all the way back to Wilt Chamberlain's 1962-63 season: a PER of 31.82. For the record, he averaged 45 points & 24 rebounds per game that year.

He's closely followed by a slew of seasons in the 31 PER range by somewhat-notable names like Michael Jordan. LeBron James, and Shaquille O'Neal. Kevin Garnett's best season was a 29.44, Dirk Nowitzki's a 28.06, and Tim Duncan's a 27.06.

Keep that in mind when noting that 21-year-old Anthony Davis is currently on pace for a PER of 36.16, or in basic English, the most efficiently dominant NBA season in history by a considerably wide margin. 

The Thunder Are In Trouble
My title here was going to be "Thunder Can't Catch a Break" but that would just be, as politically-correct people say, 'too soon'.

Two broken bones - one in Kevin Durant's foot, the other in Russell Westbrook's hand - have put OKC's season in serious turmoil, as their offensively-challenged teammates struggle to keep pace in the meantime. Even Perry Jones couldn't stay on the floor once he emerged as the unlikeliest of point-producers.

Whether you want to blame God, Lil' B, or some Sonics fan with a Clay Bennett voodoo doll, the Thunder are suddenly in a deep hole when you consider how competitive the West has become. Last year, in a nightmare conference that was still softer than this year's version, the 8th seeded Mavs lost 33 games. By that loose standard (which should be give-or-take about this year's mark), OKC will currently have to win 65% of its remaining games just to make the Playoffs.

That number will only amplify the more they dip beneath .500 with fewer games remaining. Westbrook is still around two weeks away from returning, and there's been a conspicuous lack of updates surrounding Durant's progress. Any delays to their rehab, or extended periods of acclimation, will likely sink the Thunder's season.


David Lee Should be Dealt
A lot has been made about the Warriors' roaring start to this season, particularly their having been able to do so 'without David Lee'. Well, allow me to posit another take on things: The Warriors are better 'without David Lee'.

Golden State's M.O. is pretty clear: They're a strong defensive team who relies more offensively on floor-spacing and wing scoring than any other roster. A truly strong defensive  team is a lot like a Greek phalanx, with each part protecting not only itself, but another; one glitch in the armor exposes the whole unit. The Warriors already field one "glitch" in Steph Curry, who gambles too much and is bullied by bigger guards. In addition, Lee - rebounding aside - is, by some metrics, the very worst post defender in the NBA. That's 40% of your 'strong defensive team''s starting lineup being somewhere between "sketchy" and "complete fucking liability" on defense.

Meanwhile, Lee's replacements - Marreese Speights, and lots of small-ball sets with Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes - have provided the Warriors with more toughness and mobility on D, and better offensive spacing; they patch up Lee's gaping defensive shortcomings while conforming to the team's scoring M.O. This is to say that Lee's net detriment to the Dubs' defense is greater than his marginal benefit on offense. It's pure addition by subtraction; we saw it in 2013 when they over-performed without him in the Playoffs, and we're seeing it again now. It should become an issue when Lee makes his return.

The Concern About Cleveland was Misplaced
First of all, the obvious: Cleveland is absolutely abhorrent defensively. Everyone suspected as much with their leaks at PG and PF and no semblance of a post-bound rim protector, but the results have been rock-bottom. Their 104 oppg is the worst mark of any likely Playoff team, and their offense hasn't yet reached the consistent level of omnipotence it was pegged for (though since their six-assist game it's definitely turned a corner).

But there's room for this figure to improve: first, the Cavs have faced an inordinately high number of good offensive teams; only two of their opponents so far (Utah, and of course, the Knicks) rank in the League's bottom half scoring-wise. Second, their poor team defense should improve marginally over time, not only in welcoming back Matthew Dellavedova (by far their best-defending guard), but becoming more accustomed to each others' habits and deficiencies. Third, Cleveland holds a valuable trade exception, which will almost certainly be used to pilfer a rim protector from one of the many teams hoarding cap space like food before a nuclear holocaust.

The real problem: Cleveland is relying far too heavily on its Big 3, who presently rank 3rd, 4th, and 5th in minutes per game. This is bad for a number of reasons; not only does it make Cleveland more of a static roster that doesn't conform well to mismatches, but it obviously puts them an injury away from serious issues (see: Thunder, Oklahoma City). More damning, it wears down their stars for an expected Playoff run, which is terrible news since a) LeBron has more miles on his body in the last decade than anyone in the NBA and, b) Neither Irving nor Love has ever been to the Playoffs, and have no concept of saving something in the tank for the postseason grind.

How 'Bout Them Grizzlies?!?!
And then there were my beloved Grizzlies, atop the West at 10-1 after a miraculous comeback against the Kings, and total ass-kicking of Houston in a battle of the West's best. This comes as a surprise to many, but not necessarily myself, all bias aside.

Memphis was saddled by injury for most of last season, missing Tony Allen and two-way beast Marc Gasol for large chunks of the regular season. When healthy, they sported one of the West's best records, and then came within a Zach Randolph suspension hair of knocking off the Thunder in the first round.

This year they return the same suffocating defense, only with an added boost on offense, not only from the continuity of a revitalized Courtney Lee (a midseason addition last year), but the arrival of Vince Carter, who suddenly actually plays defense. As a plus, Mike Conley's becoming ever-more proficient as a scorer-distributor, and Allen's made up for his critical lack of shooting and ballhandling by becoming one of the NBA's best guards at moving without the ball, whether it be well-timed screens, or back-door cuts on sleeping defenders. This overall attack has made it much harder for opposing defenses to sag down on Gasol and Randolph in the post, which used to be an easy foil for the Grizzlies' offense (anyone who watched the 2013 West Finals knows this all too well).

So for those of you who seem to think another team is destined to rise to the West's penthouse, be warned that it won't be an easy entry. Whether it's the Warriors, Clippers, Spurs, or eventually Thunder who come knocking, this is a different iteration of the Grizzlies; a much more capable two-way team, and one who will play with a constant chip on its shoulder, in one of the NBA's most uninviting home arenas. I'm not prepared to call Memphis the West's undisputed best team, but if they're still here in April, don't act surprised.

The Rest of the Best: 2013 All-Star Reserves

I'm trying to stay ahead of the curve here; Banter's All-Star reserve ballot is being served up as a sequel to the starters before the coaches screwball everything and I have to write a column about why DeAndre Jordan is an All-Star.

First though, I've been taking some heat from a few readers about a couple of my selections as starters, namely Paul George over Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant getting "snubbed" by James Harden. I'll be the first to admit: I'm a huge hater of "reputation votes" and tried to find some underlying bias in these decisions, but still feel as though those two deserve to be there.

Through my jaded eyes, the All-Star game is a representation of the NBA season thus far, and should be an opportunity for the players who've defined it to be celebrated. It's not about who the better player is, it's about who has mattered more this season, that's George and Harden in this case. Let's travel back to the alternate universe where I decide the NBA All-Stars as I explain:

East Reserves

Dwyane Wade
Sure Dwyane Wade is a better player than Paul George, but Miami has been somewhat underwhelming at times this season, and never has it been more apparent that he's the second-best player on his team. Meanwhile, George's sudden eruption after their "franchise" guy went down and their "max" player couldn't cut it as a two-way focal point is the main reason Indiana's leading the Central. He's their leading scorer, gives them 8 rebounds/game from the 3-spot, and - on the League's #1 rated defensive team - is the most versatile, and probably best defender.

Kyrie Irving
Cleveland might be one of the NBA's worst teams, but Irving is without question one of its best young talents and belongs in the All-Star game not only on the merits of his stellar offensive play this season, but as an exciting, dynamic franchise talent that has loudly declared his arrival. There's only so much of a "his team's terrible" argument one can make to keep a player this skilled and - from the League's perspective -marketable out of the lineup (not that this should really influence things, but it's like Blake Griffin's nod as a rookie; it's good for the game).

Luol Deng
The answer to all of the following questions is: Luol Deng

Who is the only player in the NBA logging over 40 minutes/game? ____________

Who has been the best two-way player for a Bulls team that's pacing itself extremely well while their MVP heals up? _____________

Who is probably the most under-rated player in the entire League? ______________ (as evidenced by Shane Battier snaring more votes than him. Seriously)

Who unquestionably deserves a spot on this bench? ______________

There shouldn't really be any more questions.

Tyson Chandler
The 2nd-most important component to the Knicks' sudden dominance, Chandler has been a complete package, obviously defending at an All-World level while upping his scoring and leading the League in FG% by a simply astounding margin. There's an extremely valid case to be made that he should be starting, which even three years ago would've been an absurd notion. As late bloomers go, Chandler's been a stunning surprise, and yet another player Mark Cuban will likely eternally regret not re-signing.

Joakim Noah
Arguably as crucial to the Bulls' early success has been Noah's ever-consistent energy and defensive presence; he anchors an elite defense, disrupting everything around the basket with an irritating tenacity, and doing everything on offense excellently, save for actually putting the ball in the basket. Noah will likely never be a #2.... or 3 scoring option, but has increased his offensive production in Rose's absence, averaging career-highs in scoring and assists (as well as blocks and steals) to help fill the void.


Deron Williams
After some December faltering and Avery Johnson being taken out by Prokorov's elite squad of  covert-ops assassins, Brooklyn's new team has been reeling off some decent-to-impressive games, with Williams finally hitting shots and playing with the kind of swagger he used to show off in Utah before Sloangate. I don't think "over-rated" is the word, but as skilled as he is, it seems absurd that there was ever debate between him over Chris Paul.

Chris Bosh
The final spot on this roster came down to Bosh and Jrue Holiday, and while Holiday is in the midst of a breakout year that will put him in the thick of the MIP conversation all season, Kyrie Irving pretty much stole all his "awesome young point guard on a crappy team" thunder, and having the point guard of a 2nd sub-.500 team here seemed redundant. On the flipside, Bosh - a player who was never known for his toughness or versatility on defense - has manned up this season and spent most of his time effectively playing center, holding his own and producing impressively, while allowing Miami to maintain its optimal lineups. I rarely find room to compliment Bosh, but his and Dwyane Wade's contributions this season are the epitome of "less is more" in terms of the box score.

West Reserves

Kobe Bryant
So, about the whole Kobe thing: both Harden and Bryant are having amazing seasons, and that the Mamba is still doing it at this rate, at this age, is truly remarkable. But to me, this isn't even much of a question. Kobe's been visibly passive on D this year while still unloading on offense; a once-elite defender - the leader of these Lakers - selectively coasting to save energy for offense, on a team whose defensive issues have highlighted what is the most universally disappointing season of any NBA team. All Harden's done is put up similar numbers while still being a great defender, for a team with a better record and much less talent, who are performing above anyone's expectations largely because of him. I'm not sure what other than the weight of Kobe's name earns him the starter's nod, but here he is, an All-Star for the 482nd consecutive season.

Russell Westbrook
There's a lot of things you can say about Russell Westbrook, many of which used to be legitimately negative. As the seasons pass, those items are being steadily eradicated and have left us with the second-best point in the NBA this season. He's the most athletic guard in the League. He's a fearless competitor who plays hard every night (and I do mean every night; he hasn't missed a game in his career yet). He does many things at an elite level, always had the confidence to exert himself when needed, and is developing a much better sense of when to do so. He doesn't even turn the ball over that much anymore. He's a Top-10 player, helping to lead the NBA's best team this season. He's guaranteed not to mail in the All-Star Game and throw down 2 or 3 awesome dunks. Enough said. (for those of you who think I actually use dunks as All-Star criteria, I'm merely mentioning it as icing on the cake, honey on the blunt, chrome on the Bugatti, whatever lingo you like to use)

Blake Griffin
So, for those of you who thought this may have been some insane meta-joke by David Stern on his way out, the Clippers are actually awesome now, and Griffin's been his usual All-Star self. Though his numbers are down (on a team that's so deep their most legitimate rotation issue is finding minutes for everyone within the flow of the game) he's harnessing his athleticism and - especially on defense - playing with more control and focus. As for in-game dunk potential, well, when one's jaw-dropping poster shots have almost become redundant, one's presence in an event with defense as lazy as the All-Star Game is a must.

David Lee
Who needs Andrew Bogut? Lee's larger-than-life play for the surprise of the season makes him a must on the West bench. There's almost a certain algorithm at play here: ~20/10 Guy + Massively Over-Achieving Team + Playoff Solidification + Tough Conference - All-Star Caliber (when healthy) Center = All-Star Appearance. Easy math.

Zach Randolph
People thought Z-Bo was finished. People thought he couldn't be the same player after his injury. People were fucking wrong. Randolph has been the definition of a beast this season with his constant low-post assault of the basket and boards. He gives up quite a bit height and athleticism-wise to most NBA 4s, but makes up for it with raw hustle and pure positioning, leading all non-Dwights in rebounding and serving as the Grizzlies' go-to guy in a balanced attack.

Speaking of Dwight, you may notice he's not here, which I had brief second thoughts about, but don't really regret. Yes, he's been much more impressive over the past couple of weeks, but I haven't forgotten the first month and a half of the season when he was a complete shell of himself, nor can I look beyond the Lakers' utter dud of a campaign and honestly say they deserve a second player here. Sorry, but if the All-Star game is at all a "representation of the season thus far", the Lakers should be sweeping the floor on dead balls after they mowed down so many headlines, didn't hire Phil, and have sucked this much.

Stephen Curry
Like Lee, Curry has been lights-out for a Golden State team that's putting everyone's preseason predictions to shame, and most of the Western Conference on watch. He scores nearly at will, is one of the NBA's most underrated playmakers, and makes up for any size he gives up on D with lightning lateral quickness. The freedom he's been afforded in the backcourt this year without Monta Ellis has allowed him to truly find his role, and leaving no doubt that his team kept the right man.

LaMarcus Aldridge
Honestly, this feels like a bit of a freeroll since Kevin Love's knuckle pushups are the only reason this spot's available to begin with, but lost amidst the shuffling storylines and franchise-altering injuries, is the reality that the Blazers are above .500 in the West, and shallower than Kim Kardashian. Lamarcus Aldridge is still really, really good, and giving this team's fans just one reason not to hang themselves. So for trucking it out, being consistently awesome, and not making the slightest bit of pretentious media rumble about your team's long-term predicament, this spot's all yours Mr. Aldridge. See ya in Houston.