I usually try and avoid writing too much at the beginning of the NBA Season for 3 reasons that all stem from the same root - the small sample size of games we've seen:
1. Opinions and analysis are fickle and changing at an NFL-like rate
2. It's much harder to make educated observations and not use terms like "so far" and "it seems"
3. Many assertions are totally liable to turn upside-down and make me sound like an idiot
That said, with nearly a month gone by in the season, and 10+ games for all teams, we're beginning to see what trends are emerging with serious traction, and will play a relevant role in how this season plays out. The good news for NBA junkies is that most of it points to this season being one of heavy competition - at least outside of Philadelphia, which is where I begin my rants about some of the things that have stood out to me this season:
The Sixers are Historically Awful
Philadelphia was clearly shook after gracefully losing 26 straight games last year and not getting the Draft's top pick, or even a guy who'd play his rookie season for the second straight year. So they gutted their roster even further and now pose a very realistic threat at breaking the NBA's all-time mark for the worst single-season record at 9-73 - also held by the Sixers.
I don't like using my own NBA knowledge as a benchmark for a team's relevance, but have to in this case. I know very little about most of Philadelphia's roster (and don't feel compelled to since most of them will be out of the league soon enough) which says a thing or two about just what they're fielding this season. I take Michael Carter Williams' open letter at face value; they are trying, it's just that their talent level is woefully outmatched by every other team in the league.
This roster's worse than the one the the that preceded it, and unfortunately for the Sixers (or perhaps fortunately for their clear motives) there aren't two handfuls of teams chasing Lotto balls this year, which makes for far fewer winnable games.
The Kings are This Year's Suns (Or are the Pelicans?)
Last night's NBA slate saw an intriguing encounter between two West upstarts seeking to break onto the Playoff scene. One of them was highly probably to ascend the conference's stiff hierarchy this year, while the other has instantly vaulted itself from lottery doormat to early-season powerhouse.
Let's settle something quickly: the Sacramento Kings aren't as good as the season's first couple of weeks suggested. Granted, they beat up on some tough competition, but have shown cracks in their consistency over the past few games, allowing New Orleans to overwhelm them offensively in last night's third quarter, while themselves losing their offensive rhythm and playing sloppy, turnover-prone ball. The same sort of meltdown cost them a seemingly-inevitable W against Memphis last week. They should be in the mix for a lower-tier Playoff spot however, with both their team defense and ball movement having improved noticeably from last year, and DeMarcus Cousins playing like a can't-miss All Star.
New Orleans will also contend for the postseason barring a serious injury. Their roster is undeniably shallow, but they field a killer 7/8-man rotation that can contort to pretty much any size opposition, and score at absurd rates when they're all clicking (and Tyreke Evans isn't in pseudo-LeBron mode). Which brings us to:
Anthony Davis Probably Isn't Human
Quick question: Who holds the NBA's all-time record for single-season PER?
You'll have to go diggin' in the crates for the answer, all the way back to Wilt Chamberlain's 1962-63 season: a PER of 31.82. For the record, he averaged 45 points & 24 rebounds per game that year.
He's closely followed by a slew of seasons in the 31 PER range by somewhat-notable names like Michael Jordan. LeBron James, and Shaquille O'Neal. Kevin Garnett's best season was a 29.44, Dirk Nowitzki's a 28.06, and Tim Duncan's a 27.06.
Keep that in mind when noting that 21-year-old Anthony Davis is currently on pace for a PER of 36.16, or in basic English, the most efficiently dominant NBA season in history by a considerably wide margin.
The Thunder Are In Trouble
My title here was going to be "Thunder Can't Catch a Break" but that would just be, as politically-correct people say, 'too soon'.
Two broken bones - one in Kevin Durant's foot, the other in Russell Westbrook's hand - have put OKC's season in serious turmoil, as their offensively-challenged teammates struggle to keep pace in the meantime. Even Perry Jones couldn't stay on the floor once he emerged as the unlikeliest of point-producers.
Whether you want to blame God, Lil' B, or some Sonics fan with a Clay Bennett voodoo doll, the Thunder are suddenly in a deep hole when you consider how competitive the West has become. Last year, in a nightmare conference that was still softer than this year's version, the 8th seeded Mavs lost 33 games. By that loose standard (which should be give-or-take about this year's mark), OKC will currently have to win 65% of its remaining games just to make the Playoffs.
That number will only amplify the more they dip beneath .500 with fewer games remaining. Westbrook is still around two weeks away from returning, and there's been a conspicuous lack of updates surrounding Durant's progress. Any delays to their rehab, or extended periods of acclimation, will likely sink the Thunder's season.
David Lee Should be Dealt
A lot has been made about the Warriors' roaring start to this season, particularly their having been able to do so 'without David Lee'. Well, allow me to posit another take on things: The Warriors are better 'without David Lee'.
Golden State's M.O. is pretty clear: They're a strong defensive team who relies more offensively on floor-spacing and wing scoring than any other roster. A truly strong defensive team is a lot like a Greek phalanx, with each part protecting not only itself, but another; one glitch in the armor exposes the whole unit. The Warriors already field one "glitch" in Steph Curry, who gambles too much and is bullied by bigger guards. In addition, Lee - rebounding aside - is, by some metrics, the very worst post defender in the NBA. That's 40% of your 'strong defensive team''s starting lineup being somewhere between "sketchy" and "complete fucking liability" on defense.Meanwhile, Lee's replacements - Marreese Speights, and lots of small-ball sets with Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes - have provided the Warriors with more toughness and mobility on D, and better offensive spacing; they patch up Lee's gaping defensive shortcomings while conforming to the team's scoring M.O. This is to say that Lee's net detriment to the Dubs' defense is greater than his marginal benefit on offense. It's pure addition by subtraction; we saw it in 2013 when they over-performed without him in the Playoffs, and we're seeing it again now. It should become an issue when Lee makes his return.
The Concern About Cleveland was Misplaced
First of all, the obvious: Cleveland is absolutely abhorrent defensively. Everyone suspected as much with their leaks at PG and PF and no semblance of a post-bound rim protector, but the results have been rock-bottom. Their 104 oppg is the worst mark of any likely Playoff team, and their offense hasn't yet reached the consistent level of omnipotence it was pegged for (though since their six-assist game it's definitely turned a corner).
But there's room for this figure to improve: first, the Cavs have faced an inordinately high number of good offensive teams; only two of their opponents so far (Utah, and of course, the Knicks) rank in the League's bottom half scoring-wise. Second, their poor team defense should improve marginally over time, not only in welcoming back Matthew Dellavedova (by far their best-defending guard), but becoming more accustomed to each others' habits and deficiencies. Third, Cleveland holds a valuable trade exception, which will almost certainly be used to pilfer a rim protector from one of the many teams hoarding cap space like food before a nuclear holocaust.
The real problem: Cleveland is relying far too heavily on its Big 3, who presently rank 3rd, 4th, and 5th in minutes per game. This is bad for a number of reasons; not only does it make Cleveland more of a static roster that doesn't conform well to mismatches, but it obviously puts them an injury away from serious issues (see: Thunder, Oklahoma City). More damning, it wears down their stars for an expected Playoff run, which is terrible news since a) LeBron has more miles on his body in the last decade than anyone in the NBA and, b) Neither Irving nor Love has ever been to the Playoffs, and have no concept of saving something in the tank for the postseason grind.
How 'Bout Them Grizzlies?!?!
And then there were my beloved Grizzlies, atop the West at 10-1 after a miraculous comeback against the Kings, and total ass-kicking of Houston in a battle of the West's best. This comes as a surprise to many, but not necessarily myself, all bias aside.
Memphis was saddled by injury for most of last season, missing Tony Allen and two-way beast Marc Gasol for large chunks of the regular season. When healthy, they sported one of the West's best records, and then came within a
This year they return the same suffocating defense, only with an added boost on offense, not only from the continuity of a revitalized Courtney Lee (a midseason addition last year), but the arrival of Vince Carter, who suddenly actually plays defense. As a plus, Mike Conley's becoming ever-more proficient as a scorer-distributor, and Allen's made up for his critical lack of shooting and ballhandling by becoming one of the NBA's best guards at moving without the ball, whether it be well-timed screens, or back-door cuts on sleeping defenders. This overall attack has made it much harder for opposing defenses to sag down on Gasol and Randolph in the post, which used to be an easy foil for the Grizzlies' offense (anyone who watched the 2013 West Finals knows this all too well).
So for those of you who seem to think another team is destined to rise to the West's penthouse, be warned that it won't be an easy entry. Whether it's the Warriors, Clippers, Spurs, or eventually Thunder who come knocking, this is a different iteration of the Grizzlies; a much more capable two-way team, and one who will play with a constant chip on its shoulder, in one of the NBA's most uninviting home arenas. I'm not prepared to call Memphis the West's undisputed best team, but if they're still here in April, don't act surprised.
No comments:
Post a Comment