From Luol to Love - Trade Season

Halfway through 2014's first month, the NBA regular season's inching through a relative lull; that annual stretch after the early-season excitement, just before the All-Star break, where plenty of focus shifts to the trade wire. Teams like the Spurs and Heat are pacing themselves, others are waiting to heal up, and a good portion of the League is still trying to figure out whether they should be winning games. The season's most exciting stretch won't truly begin until after the Trade Deadline and ensuing (or in Andrew Bynum's case preceding) waived-player frenzy.

Look for next month's Deadline to be much more aggressive than last year's anti-climactic dud. Not only are a few intriguing players being openly shopped around, but with several teams in You Should Probably Trade Your Star Mode, the potential for big names to shift the NBA's landscape along with area codes is very viable. Hell, if Luol Deng can be had for cap relief and a bunch of non-lottery picks, it might be open season.

- The Deng trade was an unfortunate means to an end for the Bulls, whose season was destroyed along with Derrick Rose's meniscus, and were owned by someone too cheap to give a two-way All-Star the same kind of money as Carlos Boozer. So instead, with Deng almost surely bolting in the summer, the Bulls cashed him in for a chance to dodge the Repeater Tax and get a head start on the rebuild.

I don't think I'm stretching much here when I say the Bulls could've, and should've, got more out of this deal. Had they waited closer to the deadline, this offer from the Cavs - who are kind of up Shit's Creek right now - would've still been there, and more than likely trounced by a team looking to do more than transplant Deng for a few months, totally unsure if he'll re-sign.

Chicago screwed themselves twice (well, three times if you count the Boozer signing) by souring Luol, and then panic-trading him too quickly for returns that are unlikely to ever equate what Deng brought to the table.

- The late picks/swap rights Chicago got back for Deng call to mind an element of analysis that I've found usually missing from NBA coverage in this era of advanced metrics, especially amid the Tank Brigade, and with all the rage about the CBA, small market teams, Moneyball, Moreyball and everything else:

Draft Picks and Cap Space need to be valued within the context of the GMs that wield them, and very seldom is this discussed viably as a catalyst in trades. Not all tools are equal in different hands, and the weight these things carry in trades seems to be very general.

Take for example, the Oklahoma City Thunder. They got lucky to land Durant, but have also nailed every pick under Sam Presti, from board-toppers like James Harden and Russell Westbrook, to late-first-round steals Reggie Jackson and Serge Ibaka. They've built a top-tier team almost exclusively from the Draft, especially considering they've gotten the worse end of their biggest trades.

Then there's the contrast, say the Immortal David Kahn, or even former Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo, who has enough connections and reputation-bloating that he'll likely be back in a front office at some point. Colangelo scored relative hits with DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas, but reached for Andrea Bargnani first overall (when this guy was the likely top pick), drafted Roy Hibbert and immediately traded him, and took Terrence Ross when Andre Drummond had inexplicably slid into his lap. All during an era where Toronto was crying for any kind of interior presence.

Put simply: Some teams are much better than others at drafting, and this has to be kept in mind when evaluating every transaction. A "Presti Pick" is much different from a "Jordan Pick". Lottery Picks aren't infallible, and even a late selection is worth a lot more, say, to the Spurs, than it would be to most franchises. (Basically, if you trade any draft pick to the Spurs, you're a moron).

This goes even more so for Cap Space, which is a far more calculated gamble, as teams have much better concepts of a player's value, and aren't relying on ping-pong balls to make or break them. Again, this measure should be mostly appraised by a front office's ability to pick the right players, and in some cases the team's location and reputation.

The room to maneuver and sign free agents is worth a lot more to crafty grinder with a plan like Daryl Morey or Masai Ujiri, than to someone like Joe Dumars - who's now twice tried to re-build the Pistons through Free Agency without really improving them either time - or whoever might be running the Knicks at the time.

It's all relative, and in an era where motion-sensor cameras are now quantifying every facet of the NBA, I'm surprised this concept hasn't become more standard.

- Back to David Kahn, as he's now haunting the Minnesota Timberwolves from the grave, having not only given them a shorter clock within which to build around Kevin Love, but damaged his star's relationship with the team seemingly beyond repair, even after his firing.

Love lashed out at the under-achieving Wolves last week, the latest in a Thabo Sefolosha's-Arms-long line of public criticisms that stemmed from Kahn's um, management, but appear to still be paving the runway for Love's escape.

(KAAAAAHHHHHHNNNNN!)

The move for Minny now should clearly be to trade The Love Below this season, before a team with many glaring flaws attempts to rebuild around an unhappy player who's leaving them in 18 months. Love wants to contend, the Wolves are far from it, and the longer they hold onto him, the more opposing GMs can take advantage of them, their leverage decreasing as his departure inches closer.

Acting now gives Minny the edge, capitalizing on the many teams that want Love's services, and forcing suitors to up the ante rather than calling them with a "You're Losing Him For Nothing This Summer, Take What You Can Get" kind of offer. This guy is a borderline Top-5 player; trading him now sucks but he's by far the most coveted "available" asset in the NBA right now. Minnesota can set themselves up very well for the future, and this would be a huge hand to misplay...

The Rest of the Best: 2013 All-Star Reserves

I'm trying to stay ahead of the curve here; Banter's All-Star reserve ballot is being served up as a sequel to the starters before the coaches screwball everything and I have to write a column about why DeAndre Jordan is an All-Star.

First though, I've been taking some heat from a few readers about a couple of my selections as starters, namely Paul George over Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant getting "snubbed" by James Harden. I'll be the first to admit: I'm a huge hater of "reputation votes" and tried to find some underlying bias in these decisions, but still feel as though those two deserve to be there.

Through my jaded eyes, the All-Star game is a representation of the NBA season thus far, and should be an opportunity for the players who've defined it to be celebrated. It's not about who the better player is, it's about who has mattered more this season, that's George and Harden in this case. Let's travel back to the alternate universe where I decide the NBA All-Stars as I explain:

East Reserves

Dwyane Wade
Sure Dwyane Wade is a better player than Paul George, but Miami has been somewhat underwhelming at times this season, and never has it been more apparent that he's the second-best player on his team. Meanwhile, George's sudden eruption after their "franchise" guy went down and their "max" player couldn't cut it as a two-way focal point is the main reason Indiana's leading the Central. He's their leading scorer, gives them 8 rebounds/game from the 3-spot, and - on the League's #1 rated defensive team - is the most versatile, and probably best defender.

Kyrie Irving
Cleveland might be one of the NBA's worst teams, but Irving is without question one of its best young talents and belongs in the All-Star game not only on the merits of his stellar offensive play this season, but as an exciting, dynamic franchise talent that has loudly declared his arrival. There's only so much of a "his team's terrible" argument one can make to keep a player this skilled and - from the League's perspective -marketable out of the lineup (not that this should really influence things, but it's like Blake Griffin's nod as a rookie; it's good for the game).

Luol Deng
The answer to all of the following questions is: Luol Deng

Who is the only player in the NBA logging over 40 minutes/game? ____________

Who has been the best two-way player for a Bulls team that's pacing itself extremely well while their MVP heals up? _____________

Who is probably the most under-rated player in the entire League? ______________ (as evidenced by Shane Battier snaring more votes than him. Seriously)

Who unquestionably deserves a spot on this bench? ______________

There shouldn't really be any more questions.

Tyson Chandler
The 2nd-most important component to the Knicks' sudden dominance, Chandler has been a complete package, obviously defending at an All-World level while upping his scoring and leading the League in FG% by a simply astounding margin. There's an extremely valid case to be made that he should be starting, which even three years ago would've been an absurd notion. As late bloomers go, Chandler's been a stunning surprise, and yet another player Mark Cuban will likely eternally regret not re-signing.

Joakim Noah
Arguably as crucial to the Bulls' early success has been Noah's ever-consistent energy and defensive presence; he anchors an elite defense, disrupting everything around the basket with an irritating tenacity, and doing everything on offense excellently, save for actually putting the ball in the basket. Noah will likely never be a #2.... or 3 scoring option, but has increased his offensive production in Rose's absence, averaging career-highs in scoring and assists (as well as blocks and steals) to help fill the void.


Deron Williams
After some December faltering and Avery Johnson being taken out by Prokorov's elite squad of  covert-ops assassins, Brooklyn's new team has been reeling off some decent-to-impressive games, with Williams finally hitting shots and playing with the kind of swagger he used to show off in Utah before Sloangate. I don't think "over-rated" is the word, but as skilled as he is, it seems absurd that there was ever debate between him over Chris Paul.

Chris Bosh
The final spot on this roster came down to Bosh and Jrue Holiday, and while Holiday is in the midst of a breakout year that will put him in the thick of the MIP conversation all season, Kyrie Irving pretty much stole all his "awesome young point guard on a crappy team" thunder, and having the point guard of a 2nd sub-.500 team here seemed redundant. On the flipside, Bosh - a player who was never known for his toughness or versatility on defense - has manned up this season and spent most of his time effectively playing center, holding his own and producing impressively, while allowing Miami to maintain its optimal lineups. I rarely find room to compliment Bosh, but his and Dwyane Wade's contributions this season are the epitome of "less is more" in terms of the box score.

West Reserves

Kobe Bryant
So, about the whole Kobe thing: both Harden and Bryant are having amazing seasons, and that the Mamba is still doing it at this rate, at this age, is truly remarkable. But to me, this isn't even much of a question. Kobe's been visibly passive on D this year while still unloading on offense; a once-elite defender - the leader of these Lakers - selectively coasting to save energy for offense, on a team whose defensive issues have highlighted what is the most universally disappointing season of any NBA team. All Harden's done is put up similar numbers while still being a great defender, for a team with a better record and much less talent, who are performing above anyone's expectations largely because of him. I'm not sure what other than the weight of Kobe's name earns him the starter's nod, but here he is, an All-Star for the 482nd consecutive season.

Russell Westbrook
There's a lot of things you can say about Russell Westbrook, many of which used to be legitimately negative. As the seasons pass, those items are being steadily eradicated and have left us with the second-best point in the NBA this season. He's the most athletic guard in the League. He's a fearless competitor who plays hard every night (and I do mean every night; he hasn't missed a game in his career yet). He does many things at an elite level, always had the confidence to exert himself when needed, and is developing a much better sense of when to do so. He doesn't even turn the ball over that much anymore. He's a Top-10 player, helping to lead the NBA's best team this season. He's guaranteed not to mail in the All-Star Game and throw down 2 or 3 awesome dunks. Enough said. (for those of you who think I actually use dunks as All-Star criteria, I'm merely mentioning it as icing on the cake, honey on the blunt, chrome on the Bugatti, whatever lingo you like to use)

Blake Griffin
So, for those of you who thought this may have been some insane meta-joke by David Stern on his way out, the Clippers are actually awesome now, and Griffin's been his usual All-Star self. Though his numbers are down (on a team that's so deep their most legitimate rotation issue is finding minutes for everyone within the flow of the game) he's harnessing his athleticism and - especially on defense - playing with more control and focus. As for in-game dunk potential, well, when one's jaw-dropping poster shots have almost become redundant, one's presence in an event with defense as lazy as the All-Star Game is a must.

David Lee
Who needs Andrew Bogut? Lee's larger-than-life play for the surprise of the season makes him a must on the West bench. There's almost a certain algorithm at play here: ~20/10 Guy + Massively Over-Achieving Team + Playoff Solidification + Tough Conference - All-Star Caliber (when healthy) Center = All-Star Appearance. Easy math.

Zach Randolph
People thought Z-Bo was finished. People thought he couldn't be the same player after his injury. People were fucking wrong. Randolph has been the definition of a beast this season with his constant low-post assault of the basket and boards. He gives up quite a bit height and athleticism-wise to most NBA 4s, but makes up for it with raw hustle and pure positioning, leading all non-Dwights in rebounding and serving as the Grizzlies' go-to guy in a balanced attack.

Speaking of Dwight, you may notice he's not here, which I had brief second thoughts about, but don't really regret. Yes, he's been much more impressive over the past couple of weeks, but I haven't forgotten the first month and a half of the season when he was a complete shell of himself, nor can I look beyond the Lakers' utter dud of a campaign and honestly say they deserve a second player here. Sorry, but if the All-Star game is at all a "representation of the season thus far", the Lakers should be sweeping the floor on dead balls after they mowed down so many headlines, didn't hire Phil, and have sucked this much.

Stephen Curry
Like Lee, Curry has been lights-out for a Golden State team that's putting everyone's preseason predictions to shame, and most of the Western Conference on watch. He scores nearly at will, is one of the NBA's most underrated playmakers, and makes up for any size he gives up on D with lightning lateral quickness. The freedom he's been afforded in the backcourt this year without Monta Ellis has allowed him to truly find his role, and leaving no doubt that his team kept the right man.

LaMarcus Aldridge
Honestly, this feels like a bit of a freeroll since Kevin Love's knuckle pushups are the only reason this spot's available to begin with, but lost amidst the shuffling storylines and franchise-altering injuries, is the reality that the Blazers are above .500 in the West, and shallower than Kim Kardashian. Lamarcus Aldridge is still really, really good, and giving this team's fans just one reason not to hang themselves. So for trucking it out, being consistently awesome, and not making the slightest bit of pretentious media rumble about your team's long-term predicament, this spot's all yours Mr. Aldridge. See ya in Houston.