NBA Bubble Power Rankings Part II: The Middle Class

We're back at it with Part II of the NBA Bubble Power Rankings, counting down - from worst to first - the players, teams and other things that made the bubble special.

Today we're taking a look at the bubble's Middle Class. We'll start with those that left the bubble with mixed results, and span all the way to the fringe of the Top 100 (or the top 10 percent).

If you missed Part I: The Losers, you can check it out here. Otherwise, let's pick up where we left off...

499. Washington Wizards

I straight-up completely forgot that they were even in Orlando, so they couldn't have done anything overly embarrassing. Call it a push.

485. Khris Middleton

His 36/8/8 in a must-win Game 4 vs. Miami (largely sans Giannis) quieted some of the haters who think Freak needs a better second fiddle. Ultimately, nobody associated with the Bucks really came out of this a winner.

466. Kendrick Perkins

Perkins is quickly becoming one of the NBA's most insufferable talking heads, his half-baked hot takes served with an extra zip of arrogance and entitlement as a former player and ostensible clout-haver.

But he's also one of the most inescapable sports personalities on the internet, and got himself a Sports Illustrated cover feature, so he's doing at least something right.

451. Markieff Morris

Threw quite possibly the worst pass in NBA Finals history, but had the extreme fortune of doing so seconds after viral pariah Danny Green missed a wide-open three for the NBA championship, thus waltzing away mostly-unscathed.

440. Utah Jazz

Were spirited in defeat, especially Donovan Mitchell, who leveled up in a huge way these playoffs. But Utah fancied itself a contender coming into this season, and got bounced in the first round after choking away a 3-1 lead. Bojan Bogdanovic's injury aside, the result was sub-expectation. 

432. Fred VanVleet

426. Kelly Olynyk

419. Dennis Schroder

413. Orlando Magic

Saddled with injuries, they were more competitive than anyone expected in their opening-round loss to Milwaukee. But one of those injuries - Jonathan Isaac's second major left knee tear this calendar year - could alter the course of their franchise. 

402. Kristaps Porzingis

Speaking of untimely bum knees, Kristaps' absence had many questioning if the Clippers' upset might not have otherwise happened a round earlier. But the frequency of Zinger's leg injuries has to start becoming a red flag for a running mate to the generational Luka Doncic.

388. Daryl Morey

On one end, his team was sent packing earlier than they'd set out to, for like the sixth straight year. On the other, neither that reality nor the almost-half-billion he lost the NBA a year ago have cost him his job yet. 

379. Gordon Hayward

In one of the bubble's most bittersweet subplots, Hayward pushed himself back to playing shape after yet another injury, but had to miss the birth of his son to do so. 

362. Brian Anderson

He's no Marv Albert, but Anderson did well for himself to not lose his mind mid-broadcast on Reggie Miller and/or Chris Webber after having to repeatedly hang out with them together for hours on end. 

355. Bol Bol

346. Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi gets a bit of a pass here vs. the rest of the Clippers' roster. After all, he did just average 28/9/5/2+ for their playoff run, and at several times looked to be re-asserting himself as the very best player in the league. Unlike many of his teammates, he also kept his mouth shut for most of the season (as Kawhi does), dodging much of the backlash when they imploded. 

But the implosion is still a reality. As is the fact that the team Kawhi left behind also lost in a painfully ironic second-round Game 7, imploring many, probably Leonard himself, to wonder what might've been if he'd just stayed put. 

308. James Harden

Harden had a fairly neutral bubble. He delivered the summer's first signature game - a 49/9/8/3/3 masterpiece on 70% shooting in an OT win over Dallas on opening night, eventually being named to the All-Bubble First Team. He did more or less what was expected of him: Score 30/game, lose in the second round, everything in its place.

Houston faces a serious organizational crossroads this offseason, but Harden has little to fear. Their main goal will be to better maximize his talents, although Russell Westbrook's contract is a massive shackle.

Bonus points for, in a rare twist, delivering one of the postseason's best plays on a defensive effort.

298. Jae Crowder's shooting

It was really good. And then it really wasn't. 

277. Michael Porter Jr.

Burst onto the scene as a multi-tool scorer who has altered Denver's ceiling and possibly given them some tantalizing trade bait.

But he's also complete trash on D, and outed himself as an anti-vaxxer who thinks COVID is a government control mechanism, taking some of the shine off his breakthrough.

243. Nikola Jokic

Somewhat similar to his teammate Porter, Jokic was straight-up dominant for stretches of Denver's captivating playoff run, but his limitations on D are becoming a serious obstacle. Jokic is the worst rim protector physically possible for a player of his size, and is increasingly hunted in the pick-and-roll.

Jokic's defensive ineptitude is of far graver concern since he's the franchise player (ie definitely not being traded), spends more time on the court, and can be plausibly hidden against fewer opponents. 

But overall, these playoffs were a definite win for him, and Denver has plenty of maneuverability to help plug their defensive holes.

221. Toronto Raptors

It sucks how the Raptors went out. Pascal Siakam shrunk like he was visiting Anatomy Park. Marc Gasol mummified. The bad end of three-point variance struck Toronto in the worst way, at the worst time.

Still, their title defense, after losing Kawhi, was nothing short of remarkable. They were able to milk a few extra months as champs, and made Boston fight tooth-and-nail to finally dethrone them in the final minute of a Game 7.

202. OG Anunoby

201. Alex Caruso

200. Jaylen Brown

187. Boston Celtics

Nobody can really blame them for losing to the Heat. They played very well throughout the bubble (largely without Gordon Hayward), gutted out an impressive W over the reigning champs, and were still the youngest team in the playoffs.

They have upside and assets to spare as they continue their ascent, with Jayson Tatum now looking like a bonafide superstar.

176. Gary Trent Jr.

175. Jusuf Nurkic

174. Wenyen Gabriel

161. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs were a playoff sleeper all season. Sporting a historic offense and a sneaky-deep rotation, Dallas was seen as a very viable upset candidate, even before COVID threw the season in a blender.

They came damn close, largely without Porzingis and with Luka Doncic playing on one foot. Even in defeat they made a statement, and have arguably the brightest future of any NBA franchise. 

150. Robert Covington

149. Caris LeVert

148. Mikal Bridges

144. Portland Trail Blazers

They won the West's 8th seed, which must have felt like its own mini-championship after the all-out melee the NBA contrived. The Blazers unearthed found money in several places (Carmelo Anthony, Gary Trent Jr, Wenyen Gabriel), and played their hearts out. 

But ultimately, the Blazers are largely still a one-way team with a fairly low ceiling. They've run it back for a half-decade as non-contenders, and look to be a major roster shift away from a breakthrough.

But for one brief moment, they took the NBA by storm. 

125. Serge Ibaka

124. Jeff Green

123. Jerami Grant

112. Jayson Tatum

Ultimately, the Celtics (and probably the NBA) would have loved to renew their storied rivalry with the Lakers in the Finals. If Tatum has his way, they won't be held back much longer.

At 22 years old, Tatum averaged 25/10/5 with a steal & block apiece, already solidifying himself in the NBA's upper echelon of stars. An upset in the highest-variance playoff setting ever (even amid Tatum's slow starts in the ECF) can only be a slight demerit against him. 

102. Dwight Howard

Dwight has been one of the most-scorned NBA players over the course of his 15-year career. Despite his Hall-of-Fame talent, pretty much everything else about him has made him incongruent to winning basketball.

After forcing his way out of Orlando in the most awkward and pretentious way possible, Howard bounced around the NBA for the better part of the last decade, always finding some way to ostracize himself. 

His signing by the Lakers was a gesture of mutual desperation, and many felt it was doomed for disaster with LeBron's championship aspirations and the lack of any evidence that Dwight could conform and behave. 

Well, he did. Howard was one of the NBA's best bench big men all year. By the Finals, he was starting. And now, after a highly turbulent career was written off by virtually everyone, he's an NBA champion.

Stay tuned for the Best of the Bubble, dropping soon...

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 2: The West

With the East Preview of out the way, it's time to shift scenery over the Wild Wild West, which, in contrast to its reputation, doesn't look all that wild anymore.

Time was, the entire conference was a stacked bloodbath of potential contenders, with upset potential throughout the playoffs. Now the West's depth has withered like a sun-dried tomato, leaving few established threats and a very distinct caste hierarchy:

The Warriors are unquestionably the conference's best team. Only the Spurs and Clippers have any hope of nabbing the 2nd seed, and beneath them just the Jazz, Grizzlies and Blazers project safely as playoff teams. After that, it's a murky quagmire of on-the-fly rebuilds, precocious upstarts, and identity crises.

While the West's bottom-feeders still have marginally brighter collective futures than their East counterparts, the parity between conferences seems to be inching back towards an equilibrium. How does it all stack up? Let's dive in:

LOTTERY LOCKS:

15. Los Angeles Lakers

After a few years of wayward purgatory at the end of Kobe's career, the Lakers can at least begin to steer themselves in the right direction. While they're free of Bryant's lifetime achievement salary and have a potential future core in the Russell-Ingram-Randle triad, they're still at least a season away from beginning their ascent.

In the meantime they're at least decent fodder for jokes about Timofey Mozgov's contract, the Russell/Nick Young dynamic, and how long it will take Luol Deng to regret signing here.

14. Sacramento Kings
xTo nobody's surprise, the Kings are yet again a mess heading into this year. Instead of building around All-Star DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento seems more likely to trade him, with 1/3 of their roster now centers, and Cousins in near-constant malaise when the franchise does dumb shit like this, and this.

Even with Boogie, the Kings are likely lotto-fodder, but with both he and Rudy Gay swirling around in trade rumors, there could be a total bottom-out on the way in Sac-Town. Hopefully they use the upcoming lottery pick more wisely.

12. New Orleans Pelicans
xNot a wicked franchise arc for the Pels right now. Their pseudo-attempt at Win Now Mode topped out at the 8-seed, and now they're left with an ambiguous bottom-rung roster.

Anthony Davis is obviously awesome, but becoming somewhat of a lock to miss ~15 games every year. Jrue Holiday's indefinite absence leaves their point guard situation (an E'Twaun Moore/Norris Cole/Langston Galloway smorgasbord) in heavy flux. The Pels employ three terrible centers, are relying on a few guys literally playing for their careers, and have the Solomon Hill contract to answer for. Don't expect it to happen this year.

13. Phoenix Suns

The Suns' backcourt is pretty stacked. Shifting Brandon Knight to the bench is a natural adjustment that will allow him to see minutes at both guard spots against bench units he'll completely torch.

The frontcourt however remains a mystery, but has breakout potential. Alex Len's infuriating inconsistency should benefit from a year of health, while Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss look like impact rookies. Either way there will be growing pains, and not much stock in a playoff run for another season at least.

11. Denver Nuggets

Denver's a tough team to peg this year. Heavy on mid-level assets, they've been involved in rumored blockbusters for years, but have never managed to work out a deal for a star with their myriad Kenneth Faried packages.

That could change this year, with Jusuf Nurkic very expendable, up-and-comers Will Barton and Gary Harris showing out (with lotto pick Jamal Murray waiting in the wings), and Danilo Gallinari coming off a career year if a Denver finds someone willing to gamble on his health. Really their only untouchable is Nikola Jokic, which leaves them open to many possibilities.

This roster could look very different even a couple months from now, but even as constructed, they have a balanced attack of good-to-elite shooters surrounding one of the league's best young big men. They project as a below-average defensive unit (hence why they're here) but Denver should be at worst a fun League Pass watch.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

10. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs' long string of shitty free agency luck kept spooling this summer when they settled for maxing out Harrison Barnes in perhaps the summer's most  egregious money-bonfire. Swiping Andrew Bogut from the Warriors' Durant Sale was a pleasant surprise (marking the first time the Mavs' summer center plans didn't get fucked over), but likely won't be enough to keep their playoff streak alive.

The Mavs have depth issues across the board, and will be able to rely less and less on Dirk Nowitzki's German-engineered longevity. Their fate lies in the hands of several past-their-prime guys most of whom have spotty health records. Unless Harrison Barnes is worth every dollar (and the safe bet is that he isn't), Dallas will be facing a transition very soon.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

Welcome to Team Next. Now show-run by an elite basketball mind, and with the NBA's best stable of young talent, the Wolves are primed for a major leap this year.

Having Tom Thibodeau calling the shots instead of glorified assistant Sam Mitchell will mean all the difference in the World, especially to a young troupe of athletic legs with lots to learn and stamina to keep up with Thibs' rigor.

Most of their roster has upside to realize, Karl-Anthony Towns is an MVP-in-waiting, and Kris Dunn looks like arguably this year's most impactful rookie. Even just natural growth and continuity would hugely benefit these guys, but such a significant coaching upgrade will be like an HGH boost. They're doubtful to actually crack the playoffs, but don't expect them to be far off.

8. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are going to be an awesome League Pass team this year. Mike D'Antoni and a noticeable shooting upgrade are going to usher in a new era of high-paced :07 Seconds or Less offensive artistry.

Houston will rack up points, which is good, because they couldn't defend a parked Vespa. They have leaks everywhere on D, starting two minus defenders (Nene, Eric Gordon) and two abhorrently bad ones (Ryan Anderson, and perennial YouTube legend James Harden). With all the easy paths to the hoop, their only rim protector (Clint Capela) has awareness and positioning issues. Plus their best defender (Patrick Beverly) is missing the season's first 6 weeks.

Harden's new purely-cosmetic point guard designation will be plentiful with so much spacing around him, but Anderson, Gordon and Trevor Ariza aren't spreed demons; teams with long, switchable perimeter D (and there's more of them every year) could force turnovers and contested shots easily.

7. Oklahoma City Thunder

So ya, Kevin Durant's obviously gone. That sucks. But Russell Westbrook didn't bolt, and he's about to put on a Man On Fire act unlike any we've seen. That alone should carry OKC to the playoffs, in a West middle tier that suddenly isn't as fearsome anymore.

While Westbrook is one-man instant offense, the Thunder's spacing looks very weird, with little outside shooting and a Kanter/Adams post combo with maybe 6-8 feet of range. OKC is also depressingly thin at the 3 and 4, making Durant's absence all the more noticeable. Vic Oladipo will benefit nicely from Westbrook sucking defenses in like a Dyson - routinely creating open looks than he ever would've had in Orlando - but the Thunder are one of the NBA's ideal lane-clogging targets for opposing D.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES:

6. Portland Trailblazers

Portland shocked the NBA last year with an unlikely ascent into the West playoffs after losing five of their six best players over the summer of 2015. While there's no denying they blew away expectations as a team, the Blazers' results definitely benefited from several teams (namely the two that follow here) dealing with perpetual roster-wide injury. Thus, while they're a better team on paper, they'll have a tough time holding their footing.

That said, the Blazers have lots of potential upside to realize in their weirdly-effective frontcourt, and a more physical, athletic presence after committing grand larceny with the Festus Ezeli deal. Evan Turner is perhaps the NBA's best Swiss Army Knife 6th Man, and should thrive in an identical role and similar system to his Boston gig. Slotting Portland here kinda has to be done, but feels very much like their floor, especially if Allen Crabbe's worth anywhere even in the same area code as his new contract.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

RIP Grit N Grind. With Chandler Parsons' acquisition and Zach Randolph's bench demotion, the Grizz have finally drank the potion and zagged with most of the NBA into a space-and-pace system. Parsons, when healthy, is precisely the kind of player the Grizzlies have longed for, but the "when healthy" part highlights a major concern for Memphis.

As much as Randolph and Tony Allen are still cornerstones of the Grizzlies' culture and identity, their on-court makeup rests heavily on Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Parsons, all of whom are coming off serious injuries with unclear long-term implications. It's supremely unlikely Memphis' roster is hit as hard by injury as last year, but a fully healthy season would be a pleasant surprise.

4. Utah Jazz

The Jazz have "leap" written all over them this year. Where to start? First off they have a stable
chocked full of young talent, any of whom could take large personal strides.

They also now start an average point guard, which would seem like a ho-hum statement if Utah's PG situation wasn't perhaps the single most deficient position in the NBA last year. As a bonus, they return Dante Exum from injury, embarking on one of the league's more intriguing dice-rolls at backup.

Utah, like Memphis, were also hit hard by injuries last year. While Gordon Hayward hasn't gotten them off to a great start they're even less likely than the Grizz to see such misfortune repeat itself. With fewer lineup shifts, Utah's young core will benefit from continuity and collective growth. They also made a couple great on-the-low offseason signings in Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, who provide veteran presence and are still capable on-court contributors.

Add it all up and it's hard to see Utah not leaping at least several spots up this season's West standings.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

One of the NBA's most frustrating teams, the Clippers seem stubbornly bent on maxing out as a 3-seed and getting knocked out in the 2nd round every year. They have the pieces - one of the NBA's best Big-3s surrounded by a passable 2-way supporting cast and coached by one of the best - but the health, stamina, focus and overall desire are all question marks.

You pretty much know what you're getting with this virtually-unchanged roster. If they can string together a healthy season from both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, they could challenge San Antonio for the 2-seed, but overall their potential range is very narrow. Only a serious injury will drop them out the West's top-3, and only a miracle will get them past the Spurs or Warriors in the spring.

2. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs without Tim Duncan is going to be weird; like a peanut butter sandwich without the jam, Meth without Red, or Dany Targaryen without dragons. As the Spurs shift into a new era, they've found themselves a decent placeholder at center in Pau Gasol (albeit one who's far worse defensively).

There are several questions surrounding the Spurs' season, including how much Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have left in the tank, the prospects of trading LaMarcus Aldridge, and how severe Pop's separation anxiety from Duncan will be.

Regardless, the Spurs set a franchise record for wins last year with Duncan in a cameo role, and rock by far the league's most stable system and pedigree. They're as safe a bet for the West's #2 seed as any team in any spot league-wide.

1. Golden State Warriors 
They won 73 games last year, then got Kevin Durant. What else do you want.

Stay tuned for Part 3: The Hardware, dropping any day now....

Watch out for Thorns: Back at the Rose Garden

I kicked off my last post with a bit about how shitty my timing was, and how excited I was to finally get to enjoy every second of playoff basketball, now that it's finally back. Well the Gods are either mocking me, or my karmatic vibes are coming back around for all the merciless Dirk hating I've done. Sure enough, my cable company's inept accounting department has cut my service for an allegedly "overdue" bill that was paid four months ago, leaving me in a nomadic trek between my parents' place and nearby bars, watching when I can, not enjoying things like I should be. I feel like Drew Gooden.

Today, I've decided to kick back at the parents' pad for Game 4 of the Mavs/Blazers opening rounder, a great matchup, turned Brandon Roy soap opera (more on that in a second), and my only upset pick in the first round. Despite their 2-1 lead, the Mavs haven't looked to be decisively in control of this series, and still look vulnerable. I wouldn't be surprised if this went back to Dallas knotted up, but this is also coming from the guy who thought the Knicks might stand their ground at MSG last night; hopefully the Blazers can make me look slightly less stupid.

Before we get into the thick of things, much has been made of Brandon Roy's tearful outburst over a lack of playing time, with many stances being taken on his comments. It's a difficult and delicate situation, and Roy has been through hell trying to get back on the court. But the sad reality is that this team made the playoffs without him, centered around LaMarcus Aldridge, and developing roles for other players. For Roy to return and expect to attempt to re-gain a rhythm, against a superior team in a playoff series, taking minutes from the guys who got them there, on two paper mache knees, if his coach doesn't feel comfortable with it, is unreasonable. Roy's an incredible player if he's healthy, and showed flashes of it in Game 3, but regardless of his former status, and heroic return, his minutes can't be pre-ordained right now.

Anyways, with that out of the way, on with the show...

- Catching the end of this Pacers meltdown is the most hilarious bonus coverage ever. Up 15 with 2:15 left. Up 1 with 15 left. With your season on the line. Joakim Noah just got left open enough for him to break an inbound play and drive for an and-one from 18 feet. Just unreal.

- They finally wake up, defending like madmen on the final Bulls possession and forcing a Carlos Boozer 3 (career 1-9) for the tie. Now, instead of pondering whether this was a good shot, let us wonder why one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA was straddling the 3 point line, when a quick put-back would've been crucial. Such a shitty way for an awesome comeback to end.

- We've entered The Garden. Ya, after the dud the Knicks threw down last night, Portland's stolen "The Garden" from them, meltdown pending.

- Toss-Up: Wesley Matthews dropping 22 in the first half again, or Jason Kidd dunking on Marcus Camby?

- Deshawn Stevenson's carrying the offensive load early with two treys; 8-4 Mavs at 6:30

- Wesley Matthews promptly shuts me up with an icy three-ball.

- Matthews again, walking right through 4 Mavs in transition. Maybe Kidd's been on Air Alert?...And put on a couple inches?...And owns a time machine?

- Tyson Chandler was possibly the most under-rated player in the NBA this season. For all the (deserved) hype Dwight got about his defense, Chandler was the backbone of an equally atrocious group of perimeter defenders, disrupting penetration and waxing glass all year. He's been huge early.

- A perfect storm of passive offense and solid D, with a touch of sloppy play, has produced a painful first quarter; 16-11 Mavs after 1. 12 combined turnovers. Barea and Matthews have the only field goals in the paint. Good times.

- Barea knows no fear! Really though, his aggression against Portland's bigs is impressive, especially for a guy who makes Eric Murphy look like Arvydas Sabonis.

- Brandon Roy watch: 0-5 early, all jumpers. If this were the regular season I'd have no problem, but this just isn't the time to try and shoot yourself into a rhythm.

- More jumpers for Portland: 5-21 early, they trail 22-13 at 9:05

- Barea keep getting to the hole but the Blazers body up; first a Roy charge, then a Camby swat

- Hard Stojakovic foul on Roy going to the hoop. He seems shaken up, but I have little faith that Peja can hit this guy hard enough to take him out

- Dirk Diggler with a fading, off-balance jumper over two defenders, off a spin into the lane. I wish I could find Nowitzki (for some reason) climbing out of a zoo bearpit, so I could re-enact Wes Mantooth's "I HATE YOU!...But dammit, I respect you" speech. And then push him back in.

- Ason Kidd's putting in a decent campaign to have the "J" returned to his name. Take Wilt's 100, Oscar's season-long triple-double, and shove them; the most incredible stat is Kidd being 3rd in career 3's. I find that completely incomprehensible, somebody with connections is lying.

- Tyson Chandler: perhaps not the guy you want to run your offense through. Though, the way Portland's looked so far, he'd make a great PG for them. 35-27 Mavs at 3:30

- Aldridge turns upcourt, runs straight into Chandler's elbow and gets up in his grill. Chandler raises his arms and walks away. So Aldridge shoves him. Well, that was perfectly reasonable. 'Couple technicals.

- The scrappy play continues as Dirk and Miller fall to the hardwood fighting over a loose ball. Dirk: "So THIS is what playoff basketball's like..."

- Great team play from Portland: Aldridge deflects a pass, saves it to Matthews, who hits Wallace for a nice oop in transition....Matthews again! Suddenly the Blazers are alive and within 4.

- With Dallas' offense on life support, Portland closes the quarter on a 10-2 run. They trail 37-35, and their best player's been a complete non-factor so far; this is very winnable.

- Chuck on Carlos Boozer: "The key to life is knowing your limitations". How many times have those words found their way out of his mouth at the Palms?

- Dallas has 2 points off 8 turnovers and hasn't been to the line as the third quarter begins. Yikes. This game's been a struggle offensively.

- Both teams come out with more jumpers; watching Gerald Wallace settle for a pull-up is like seeing a girl with an amazing butt in really loose sweatpants.

- ..."the other balls" aren't the only ones you kill. Every time you're on TV, we all die a little inside.

- "J"ason Kidd wets another three, the kind that hurts your ears from the mesh twanging so close to the mic.

- The Blazers are 0-7 from the field this quarter and trail by 9, but Chandler just picked up #4 at 7:20

- More J's for the Blazers. (haha, seems about right) Now 0-9, down by 15. At least they're in bonus now so they might be able to get something going at the stripe.

- Dirk bangs a 2nd chance 3; Portland needs to wake the f*** up.

- Portland, again, gets no penetration and settles for a 3 from a streaky shooter (Nicolas Batum) who's hit nothing all day. Somebody, please slap these guys.

- Portland then has Aldridge BACKING DOWN JASON KIDD on the block, who against no double, kicks it out for another missed 3. 0-12.

- Ok, we're down to under 3 minutes. Portland has yet to hit a field goal in this quarter, in 14 futile attempts (now 24% for the game). As much as I wanna see Dallas lose, that seems highly unlikely now, and seeing them go a whole quarter would be really funny.

- Conversely, Peja bangs another 3, the Mavs are 8-14 from deep

- Finally Aldridge catches the ball deep and nets the field goal Portland needed 10 minutes ago, off the look they should've been exploiting the second Chandler hit the bench. Instead, they listlessly drifted the quarter and Trail by 18 heading into the fourth. I'm going to grab some beers.

It Begins...

So the regular season's over. Blake Griffin's going to be on TV less, but just about everything else about this transition in the 2011 Playoffs is going to make for more entertaining, and simply better basketball. While MJ and Prokhorov duke it out for lottery status, the real fight for the NBA crown looks as volatile as ever; a new favorite seems to emerge every couple weeks as teams slide in and out of Beast Mode (Lakers, Heat, Mavs), get shot in the foot (Spurs), or shoot themselves in ass (Celtics). The opening round should be a revealing couple of weeks (ya, it's gonna be a while), much will be unveiled about how these wayward contenders respond to the playoff pressure. I tried getting a hold of Tracy McGrady to find out exactly who was going to win, but he's been screening my calls, so here goes nothing: Banter's First Round predictions...

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Chicago Bulls (1) vs. Indiana Pacers (8)

Playing the role of "Eastern Lottery Team that Stumbled Into the Playoffs Despite Itself", the Pacers will be in over their heads against a Bulls team that outmatches them across the board and defends their key positions extremely well. Nobody on Indiana can even fantasize about containing Derrick Rose, and if he can exploit the Pacers' average-at-best perimeter D with the ease he's been getting accustomed to, this series will be quick and painful. Maybe the dogs get lucky and steal one, but Indiana doesn't have the firepower to overcome Thibodeau's vaunted defense.

Bulls in 4

Miami Heat (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)

Well, this is it; it's time for the Heat to really show us which of the two teams they oscillated between this season will show up for the postseason. Their first opponent is a cagey defensive team that doesn't mind running (sound familiar?) but will be severely handicapped by their lack of an offensive answer for Chris Bosh (without even mentioning LeWyane), but their underrated bench could cause some problems against Miami's Ke$ha-esque shallowness; maybe even enough for a W.

Heat in 5

Boston Celtics (3) vs. New York (6)

The Knicks are back in the playoffs, and as a homecoming gift, drew the top Eastern seed that's been actively self-destructing since Danny Ainge's awkward Deadline faux-pas. Boston's been doing their best Hank Moody impersonation since Mid-February, but they still match up favorably against New York. What remains to be seen is how well they can defend the rim without Perkins lurking in the trenches. The Celts' mid-range defense is still outstanding, but if Melo and Stoudemire can get to the hole, Krstic and half of Shaq will have their hands full. The Knicks could steal a couple, especially at the Garden against a team that's still finding itself, but Boston's too well-rounded for a first-round collapse.

Celtics in 6

Orlando Magic (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)

We saw how this played out last year. Granted, the Magic are a totally different team, but Atlanta hasn't done anything all season to suggest they're any better all season. Joe Johnson's been underwhelming. Josh Smith might've hit his ceiling. Al Horford's been quietly spectacular, but will have to play the best ball of his life and take out one of Dwight Howard's legs to get the better of him. If there were an award for Listlessly Talented Team That Has No Chance of Overperforming in the Playoffs, they'd win it. Which is why they're going to lose.

Magic in 5

WESTERN CONFERENCE

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8)

Despite being a 1/8, this could be one of the more interesting opening-round series. San Antonio's walking wounded (Ginobili=out for Game1, Duncan+Parker<100%) and Memphis boasts a not-all-that-shallow-anymore bench and can grind in the molasses-pace halfcourt the Spurs play. Ginobili's convalescence is the key; Memphis has found ways to score without Rudy Gay and can steal Game 1 without him, but it's hard to see the Spurs losing; they're too deep, smart and experienced to fall this early.

Spurs in 6

Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs. New Orleans Hornets (7)

After Bynum's false alarm, the Lakeshow appears to be back on schedule to murk the West-less Hornets like one of those blue zap-lamps, and send the NBA media into a "When Will David Stern trade Chris Paul to the Knicks?" speculation frenzy. Despite Carl Landry's best efforts, this team is too thin beneath Chris Paul to fuck with the two-time defending champs. LA, much like Miami, has had trouble deciding whether they want to be brilliant or awful this season; look for this to be a statement series that they're not to be taken lightly.

Lakers in 4

Dallas Mavericks (3) vs. Portland Trailblazers (6)

(Upset Alert!) Because I've gotta go with one, Portland's probably the most underrated team in the Playoffs, and the Mavs are an easy target for a first-round collapse. Dallas has been wildly inconsistent this season, prime to be caught off guard by a team that's suddenly healthy and both deep and talented enough to cause them a lot of problems. Dirk cannot defend Lamarcus Aldridge, who's comfortable enough on the elbow to make Tyson Chandler's help irrelevant. Brandon Roy could probably put up 20 on the Beaubois/Barea/Terry/Kidd backcourt in a wheelchair. Camby/Wallace is probably a better defensive-specialist/wild card combo than Chandler/Marion. Maybe the Mavs bring their game faces, but a team with a long history of playoff meltdowns, who hasn't brought in any established postseason performers, shouldn't be counted on for it. Portland can do this: Make Greg Oden proud.

Blazers in 6

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Denver Nuggets (5)

A lot of people are talking up the Nuggets and their post-Melo success like they're some sort of Dark Horse contender out West. I think those people are on acid. Denver's young and talented; they have an intriguing roster with depth to spare, but they lack many essential playoff ingredients: Nobody on their team (with the exception of Kenyon Martin, and possibly Nene) has played meaningful playoff basketball. None of their players are consistent go-to scoring options. Speaking of which, they have nobody to stop Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant (if you have HD, you'll probably be able to see Durant's eyes twinkle when he catches Gallinari alone on the perimeter), and the Ibaka/Perkins monster makes OKC a much more formidable defensive foe, one that Denver will have a much tougher time beating at their own high-octane game. The Nuggets played the Melo deal perfectly; they coyly baited a desperate team with valuable assets, like a trampy gold-digger marrying some terminally ill 80-year-old gajillionaire. They came out of it looking as good as possible heading forward, but this isn't a team built to win in the playoffs, especially not against OKC: your REAL Western Conference Dark Horse.

Thunder in 5

Requiem for a Career

"Microfracture surgery" and "Greg Oden" are probably the most devastating injury-related terms in pro basketball right now, so when they're mentioned in the same sentence, you know not to take the situation lately. News broke last night of yet another devastation, the latest in a list longer than Shawn Kemp's baby mamas, one that will keep the former no. 1 pick in suits for the rest of the season.

The easy assumption is that his career is over. There have been too many long-term issues with this dude's entire anatomy for any GM off the Great Lakes to want to invest in him; forget the wear-and-tear of an NBA season, Oden's body has regularly succumbed to rehab. In terms of on-court development, he's essentially still in his first year; he's not getting any younger and, at this rate, will be ordering off the senior's menu at IHOP by the time he fulfills his rookie contract. With every passing season, and every awkward, dubious ailment, there was always that slight hope that "maybe, just maybe, Greg Oden can stay on the court this year", but any optimism the Blazers and their fans could've held onto must be dead now. We hardly knew ya.

Whether Oden's ever healthy enough to return to pro basketball, this latest setback will likely cement a historical draft day faux-pas; one that reeks eerily of Portland's immortal fuck-up in '84. Although Oden was touted as a revolutionary defensive presence, nobody needs Captain Hindsight to point out the meteoric rise of the neglected Kevin Durant, only adding insult to injury, after injury, after injury. There's no telling where the Blazers would be had they gone the other route on that fateful day (clearly much closer to a title), but at least they walk away from this mess finally knowing damn well never, under any circumstances, to draft a center with their top pick.

While we're witnessing history here, we're also caught up in a young man's tragedy. I'll be the first to admit that I've had many laughs at Greg's expense, from his bumbling injuries, to him awkwardly and unintentionally ending Dikembe Mutombo's career, to him getting his penis shown to way more people than was ever hoped. But you can't help but feel terrible for this guy right now. His entire life, he was touted as basketball's next big thing; a can't-miss prospect bound for NBA stardom, success and (obviously) millions upon millions of dollars...And now that's all in serious jeopardy. Even if Oden's able to bounce back and have a productive career (which seems very f***ing unlikely at this point), it certainly won't be like it was supposed to.

Never mind Lebron, Greg Oden's really the one asking himself "What should I do?". Hell if I know; he's in an unbearable predicament none of us should envy. All the best going forward, Mr. Oden.

The Journey Begins...

...82 games later we find ourselves at the doorstep of the NBA Playoffs; (most of) the weak links have been weeded out and await the Blake Griffin sweepstakes, while the 16 remaining teams fight it out for the most coveted prize in pro basketball, almost all of them knowing they have no legitimate chance here. Sad to say, the playoffs are looking like a bit of a wash; nobody in the West has really been fucking with the Lakers all year, and the one other team nobody could rule out's been decimated by injury and likely won't be up  to their usual playoff heroics. Cleveland, meanwhile looks almost unbeatable out East; even if Garnett returns for the postseason, he won't be anywhere near 100% in a win-or-go-home situation that will demand the most from his body. Don't sleep on the probability of an Orlando-Cleveland East Finals, (...and please don't try and tell me the Magic have any chance of winning that series having to Enter the Q four times) Boston's very vulnerable right now. Regardless of these playoffs' seemingly obvious outcome, there's still eight matchups to break down, so let's get into it:

EAST

Cleveland (1) vs Detroit (8)

Once upon a time, this was a marquee matchup; one that would decide the East crown and was always sure to be highly competitive. Now that Chauncey's gone and Detroit's status as a legit team's been collapsing like Greg Oden all year long, they'll be seriously hard-pressed to get a single win against Cleveland. The one thing they have going for them is that their best defender matches up with Lebron James. Everything else about this series (generally the Cavs's home court swagger and immeasurably better basketball) screams sweep. Cavs in 4.

Boston (2) vs Chicago (7)

Now that KG's on pins and needles, the plot sorta thickens here. Recall Boston's opening round last year, one where an up-and-coming squad pushed them to seven games because most of their team had never been to the playoffs and their veterans hadn't in so long it was like a crack relapse just getting back there; they weren't sure of themselves. Now they find themselves in a similar predicament, without their leader going up against a Bulls team that's looked impressive since their deadline deal.  But despite Chicago's growth this year, they likely haven't matured enough to knock off the defending champs, and with or without Garnett, they have no answer (let alone a defender) for Pierce and Allen. Celtics in 6.

Orlando (3) vs Philadelphia (6)

This could've been a good series; Orlando shoots an awful lot of threes, enough to get them in trouble against a team that loves scoring in transition off misses. Philly's going to be hard-pressed to stop the Magic's onslaught though; they're not a particularly strong team defensively or on the boards and I can already vividly imagine Sam Dalembert struggling against Dwight. What the Sixers lack is a go-to guy who can take over a game and level the playing field of this series. With Thaddeus Young injured as well, it'll be tough to salvage much more than a game.

Magic in 5.

Atlanta (4) vs. Miami (5)

So Dwyane n' Friends ultimately fell short in their quest for homecourt, but as a consolation prize get to face undoubtedly the weakest team in the top 4. Atlanta's big problem here is that their best player will be asked to lock down Wade, which could not only put him in foul trouble but tire him out; given that JJ's so vital to their offense, this could end up costing them the series. Atlanta's more talented at every other position and (relatively) deeper but I can't help but feel like Wade's penchant for playoff heroics will push his team over the top. Heat in 7

WEST

LA Lakers (1) vs. Utah (8)

The Jazz are a confounding squad. On paper, they're the second-deepest team in the league and if not for injuries wold surely have a higher seed. At the same time they fucking suck on the road and have had a hard time winning against playoff teams lately. Deron Williams is going to have a field day in this series but it won't be nearly enough for Utah to topple the mighty Lakeshow. Lakers in 5.

Denver (2) vs. New Orleans (7)

The Nuggets, for the first time in an eternity, are entering the playoffs poised and composed, ready to square off against a team that hasn't looked like itself, playing like the Raptors instead of a squad that almost knocked off the Spurs a year ago. Chandler's been a shell of his former self, Peja's proving more and more obsolete, and while containing Chris Paul is a very relative term, Billups is probably one of the best-suited to do it. Denver's improved commitment on D, combined with NO's lack of firepower, will spell a first-round exit for the Hornets. Nuggets in 6

San Antonio (3) vs. Dallas (6)

I love this matchup; the fact that one of these teams is guaranteed a first-round exit makes me happier than Damon Stoudemire will be on Monday (check the calendar). Manu's absence really hurts the Spurs, stretching their bench and forcing guys with little playoff experience to carry heavy loads. Furthermore, for the first time in a decade, the Spurs aren't peaking heading into the playoffs; they've looked tired (especially Timmy D) and Dallas has been playing some of its better ball down the home stretch; against a decimated San Antonio squad I like them pul off the upset, as much as that hurts to admit. Mavs in 7.

 

Portland (4) vs. Houston (5)

This has the potential to be one of the better series; these teams play contrasting styles of ball and neither has much playoff experience; there'll be plenty of opportunities for this matchup to go either way. Portland's got homecourt and has been damn near unbeatable at the Rose Garden, so I see this one falling their way and Yao joining his old buddy T-Mac in first-round purgatory. (I'm trying to watch the Celtics/Bulls game, so I'm being concise here). Blazers in 7.

Whatever goes down, here's hoping "amazing" happens. Go Cavs. 

In the Right Corner...

Ladies and gentlemen, it's time to meet your Contenders. The NBA regular season's now somehow two thirds over. Teams league-wide are making final tweakings for a playoff push, some for a deep run into May and June. These are the League's elite, the ones who can hope to be raising the Larry O in June. With the postseason picture starting to take shape, here's a look at the Top 10 teams who could be last ones standing:

10. Houston Rockets
This is kind of a stretch. They're seriously deficient in the size, depth and (most notably) durability they'll need for a deep playoff run, but the balance the T-Mac's absence will bring to this roster will benefit them. When they don't have their best swingman playing like a mutant and ruining offensive flow, the Rockets are a coheisve team. They have the conference's best center, a maniac who can lock down anyone he faces, and an energetic supporting cast that although young and naive in the ways of the postseason, could take some teams by surprise.

9. New Orleans Hornets
Although they improved their roster and are (somehow) getting a better season out of Chris Paul, New Orleans hasn't made the bold claim for West supremacy everyone had anticipated. Instead they've swayed back and forth between brilliance and mediocrity, the recent Tyson Chandler trade fiasco certain to only add confusion to an already blurry season. That being said, counting Chris Paul out is never a good idea. His playoff debut was one of the most impressive ever, and after an epic bout with the Spurs, his team's had a taste of playoff battle and added Champion Journeyman James Posey; they should be better prepared this time around.

8. Portland Trailblazers
Another longshot, but I've gotta start this list with somebody. The Blazers are simply just ahead of their time; they've got all the right pieces for a title run, they'll need a few years before they ripen though. The fact that they're even in this conversation as one of the league's rawest teams should be enough satisfaction, and things are only bound to get better as Brandon Roy emerges as one of the league's best young players, Travis Outlaw's game continues to catch up with his freakish athleticism, Lamarcus Aldridge becomes more comfortable on the low block and Greg Oden (possibly) morphs into Patrick Ewing. This postseason will be a test of how ready they really are, but they've made a habit of exceeding expectations.

7. Orlando Magic
Just when they were looking like dangerous threat, riding the momentum of 4 straight W's over division leaders, Jameer Nelson goes down and brings Orlando back down to Earth. Getting Rafer Alston should help clot the bleeding but Nelson was vital to this team and their hopes of winning the East might hinge on healthy return, which looks shaky at this point. Oralndo's problem has always been peaking too early; bolting out of the gate them losing steam as the season winds down. They're plenty talented but against the likes of Boston or Cleveland in the second round, what's left of the Magic will have to dig real deep to stay alive.

6. Denver Nuggets
Maybe the most unlikely team on this list, the Nugs have held down a top-3 seed in the West through the absence of their most talented player. Now that Melo's returned, he fortifies a team that's now quarterbacked by a proven playoff vet (and former Finals MVP), who's instilled a winning attitude in Denver. They've improved defensively and play a game much more suited to the playoff grind; though still longshots to capture the title, they'll be a feared opponent that will probably win at least one series and begin building upon the foundations of mediocrity that have been long entrenched in the Mile High City.

5. Utah Jazz
Currently seeded 8th out West, the Jazz's talent belies their current record. They've stayed in the playoff hunt through extended absences of their two best players and 6th man; a testament to their talent and toughness. Their stars fell but their role players rose up to fill the void; Paul Millsap was almost an All-Star, CJ Miles became and athletic scoring threat and Ronnie Brewer continues to operate as one of the league's most underrated players. Now that Carlos Boozer is finally healthy again, Utah will have some time to gel before the playoffs begin and really assert themselves for the first time all season. We don't know what to expect yet, but trust that Jerry Sloan has some high expectations for this squad and should get them to perform as such.

4. San Antonio Spurs
Father Time seems to be catching up to the Spurs, who've looked more weathered this past year than ever. They lost several key veterans and have seen two of their big three on the chilling list for longer than they'd like. But as the Spurs usually do, they've found ways to win. Tim Duncan has been fundamentally brilliant and new additions like Roger Mason, Matt Bonner and rookie George Hill have filled gaps left in the rotation by departures and injuries. The Spurs are thus, not surprisingly, 2nd in the West and have been knocking off top contenders with the same cold, calculated efficiency of their glory days. They perenially peak for the postseason run after their February Rodeo Road Trip, which is bad news for Spurs Haters who can expect the best is yet to come from San Antonio. Their bench may be younger and shallower than in the past, but they've proven effective and are led by three of the most experienced playoff performers in the league. Nobody wants to play them, nobody should bet against them...unless they're playing one of these three teams:

3. Boston Celtics
KG's lingering kneww problem that's forced him to the sideline is a dark cloud hanging over the defending champs. While they've continued winning in his absence, without a healthy Garnett this team can book cruises and tee times for June. But once KG returns, they'll still have a month to work him back in before the playoffs begin and not many flaws to work out. The Celtics' defensive chokehold has looked as potent as last year and Rajon Rondo's emergence as a 4th gun on offense will give them a much needed boost in the postseason if Allen and Pierce have cold spells like they did against Atlanta and Cleveland last spring. They look set for another charge to the Finals, but I can't help but feel like it won't happen. For one, there was that spell back in January where they played like the bastard offspring of the Charlotte Bobcats and Washington Generals. Then there was that 18-point ass-whupping Cleveland put on them without Big Z, in what the Celts knew was a statement game. Then there's the intangible factor; the knowledge that yeah, they're the defending champs and have the winning experience they all lacked last year, but KG Ray and Paul got their rings after an endless odyssey and the rest of the team knows that consequently Garnett's much less likely to physically assault them. Complacent? No that's not these guys, but they'll be hard pressed to be as hungry this postseason.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers
Not only will KG's injury worry the Celts but will probably lose them the homecourt race to the Cavs, who are now back at full strength for the first time since the New Year and have seldom slipped all season. They seem destined for another playoff battle with Boston (this time for the East crown), and one has to think they'll have the edge. Cleveland took a newly fashioned roster into the playoffs last year, played some of their worst basketball possible and still took Boston to the 4th quarter of Game 7 before bowing out. This year their players are more familiar with each other and the addition of Mo Williams has worked wonders for their offensive potency. When you factor in #23's annual playoff retardedness, the aforementioned homecourt edge and the Cavs' (read: Lebron James') hunger for revenge, it's hard not to be optimistic about their chances for a return to the Finals, where they'd almost certainly play the only team to beat them at home this season:

1. Los Angeles Lakers
So Andrew Bynum's injured again. So what. That didn't stop Los Angeles from completely ruining the Western Conference before being swept up in a tidal wave of Celtic Pride last June. This season, the Lakers have looked even better, running away with the West and winning their big games. Kobe's adopted a more methodical form of brilliance and Pau Gasol has played his second fiddle brilliantly while Lamar Odom's adapted well to his supporting role. Their Bench Mob has continued its brilliance and even after shedding Vlad Rad and Chris Mihm to cut costs, they're probably still the League's deepest team. Bynum's absence wil hurt them most in the slow, physical grind of the playoffs but by the time LA faces a team that's really fucking with them, he'll likely be back close to 100%, and if he is, then it might be too late for anyone to stop them.