Showing posts with label Awards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Awards. Show all posts

Sunday, April 10, 2022

Banter's 2022 NBA Awards


This was a weird fucking NBA season. 

Even if you remove the COVID outbreak that had the league on the verge of a shutdown and rolling out G-League rosters for weeks during the Omicron wave, there was plenty of the unexpected afoot. 

For starters, the two preseason championship favorites both completely imploded for various reasons, with the Nets clinging for dear life to a play-in spot and the Lakers being eliminated entirely.

The early-season adjustments to the new ball and foul rules handcuffed some of the NBA's biggest stars and led to an insane run of Under hits for sports bettors before scoring exploded over the season's second half. 

Teams like the Cavaliers and Raptors came out of nowhere to make the Eastern Conference extremely competitive, while injuries to squads like the Clippers and Nuggets left voids in a normally very top-heavy West.

The Grizzlies somehow finished second in the league despite being a projected play-in team and their fringe MVP candidate missing 20+ games. The Timberwolves are in the thick of the playoff hunt and playing competent defense. The Clippers stayed afloat without either of their superstars for much of the season. The Hawks sucked. The Knicks sucked more. The Wizards were first in the East at one point this season. And, conversely, the Celtics staged one of the biggest mid-season turnarounds in NBA history. 

It's been a fun ride so far, and things should only get better over the coming weeks, with one of the most wide-open and compelling postseason scenarios that have been conjured up in quite some time.

But before we dive into the playoffs, let's take a quick moment to reflect on those that really showed out during the regular season, with the only column I ever seem to write on this blog anymore (you can catch my regular stuff over at Covers.com).

So, in a time-honored tradition, coming to you on tape-delay from a weed-filled basement in Halifax, Nova Scotia, it's Banter's 2022 NBA Awards. Envelopes please...

(All stats as of 4/8.)

Most Improved Player: Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies

Before we get to the awards that were actually a decision this year, let's get a couple out of the way that were absolute layups. 

The meaning of "most improved" can take on many connotations, but historically, the most impressive stride a player can make in the context of this award is The Leap into the stratosphere of a bonafide superstar. 

And Morant made that leap about as loudly as possible this year.

Ja's scoring shot up from 19.1 to 27.6 ppg, in what was, by far, his most efficient shooting season yet. He tacked on career-highs in rebounds, steals and blocks for good measure, averaging 25/5/5 for his third season, which basically doesn't happen unless you are historically good at basketball. Morant's usage rate shot up from 27.2 to 33.8%, while decreasing his turnover rate despite being one of the NBA's most targeted and ambitious playmakers.

Speaking of ambitious, Ja's relentless pursuit of highlights on both ends of the ball produced one of the best single-season mixtapes ever, on par with prime Vince Carter and Blake Griffin. His unique combination of boundless hops, crafty handle, third-eye vision, and sheer audacity leave Grizzlies viewers constantly unsure just what he might pull next.

And there's substance to the style. The Grizzlies were the NBA's second-best team this season, and Ja was a huge part of that (despite their much-ballyhooed success with him injured). Morant gave the Grizzlies a leader to rally behind — his fearlessness, unselfishness and indelible pride in repping for Memphis bled through the entire roster. This group loved playing together, which undoubtedly contributed to arguably the NBA's biggest team success story — and that started at the top.

Garland and Murray get our regards below, and they both had amazing seasons that would've held weight for serious contention in most fields. But Ja was everywhere this year and should be a landslide winner here.

Regards to: Darius Garland, Dejounte Murray

Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro, Miami Heat

This year's 6MOY was one of the easiest awards to decide in recent memory. Herro was the betting odds leader for this award from the very first week of the season. By December, he was an odds-on, meaning he was favored against the rest of the field. By the time most sportsbooks closed Sixth Man markets a couple weeks ago, Herro was listed at -20,000, meaning you would have to wager $20,000 to win $100 betting on him. 

This wasn't even an award race, it was a coronation. 

Herro averaged 20.7 points this season, leading qualifying bench players by over four points per, at a mark that has only been topped once by a qualifying bench player (Lou Williams, 21.9 in 2017-18) in the past 15 years. He kicked in regular huge contributions for the Heat, who were seemingly nursing some sort of key injury at every juncture this season.

But while Herro put up a season that would've wrapped Sixth Man anyway in what's usually a competitive field, nobody else really stepped up to the plate. 

Montrezl Harrell was beasting to start the season, then faded and was traded. Kelly Oubre Jr. got hot for like two weeks in December and plateaued hard after that. Kevin Love played relevant basketball again, but never seemed to get consistent minutes, even with Cleveland's endless onslaught of injuries. Reigning champ Jordan Clarkson's numbers tailed off from last year, as did teammate runner-up Joe Ingles' before suffering a devastating ACL tear.

In this weak of a field, Herro was untouchable off the bench and should win this award unanimously. 

Regards to: Nobody really.

All-Rookie Teams

First Team: Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Josh Giddey, Franz Wagner

Second Team: Ayo Dosunmu, Herbert Jones, Chris Duarte, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun

The First Team is mostly locks. There could be an argument made for Jones over Giddey or Wagner, and I can't fault someone who values Jones' health and defense over Giddey's early-season inefficiency and ultimate injury.

Dosunmu and Jones should be penned in for the Second Team, with the final spots between Duarte, Green, Sengun, Bones Hyland and Davion Mitchell. The latter two are close snubs, with Hyland ultimately not seeing enough floor time, and Mitchell's post-Kings-tank surge coming a bit too late. 

Rookie of the Year: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

This was not fun.

The margins between Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley are close. Like, really, really, sickeningly, I'm-having-sincere-anxiety-about-this-decision-close. Honestly, anyone who gives this award to Mobley: I have no quarrel with you. 

Their stats are painfully similar, even as fundamentally different players. Both averaged damn near 15/8 on 50% from the field with mirroring usage rates; Barnes averaged more steals and assists, Mobley more blocks and rebounds.

Both players posted strong advanced stats profiles for rookies, and again, there's very little to separate the two, but the broader scope begins to paint Scottie as the better overall rookie. While Mobley has a slight edge in RPM, Barnes has the better rating in PER, VORP and win shares, and in FiveThirtyEight's aptly-named RAPTOR metric, Barnes sits 66th while Mobley is almost comically slighted in 163rd. 

Mobley was an amazing defender for a rookie and will likely wind up a close call for the All-Defensive Second Team, but Barnes was also awesome on D, particularly down the stretch. The gap between them isn't as big as some people would have you think 

And while Mobley's brilliance was crucial to an injury-riddled team that over-achieved significantly this season, his narrative isn't too far off what Barnes achieved with Toronto, his surprise campaign every bit as integral to the Raptors' surprise-to-some success. 

Mobley's defense and intangibles are superior, but when so little separates these players and a broad scope of valuable metrics paint Barnes as the better player, having logged more games for what will end up as the better team, it's enough to make the trophy his. 

Regards to: Evan Mobley, Cade Cunningham


Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies

**stands behind COVID-style plastic barrier to avoid rancid vegetables being thrown by outraged readers claiming I'm a homer**

Okay, now that safety measures are in place. 

This award is always one of the toughest to decide, if not because of its arbitrariness then also because there are heaps of deserving candidates every year — this season was no different. 

But what Jenkins accomplished with the Grizzlies was a masterclass in NBA leadership, piloting a team that was supposed to compete for a lower-tier play-in spot to the second-best record in the NBA.

That in and of itself is enough of an overachievement to merit serious COY consideration, but how Jenkins did it was even more impressive. The Grizzlies were without Ja Morant — a borderline MVP candidate and shoe-in All-NBA selection — for 24 games, during which time they went 20-4. Often overlooked because the Grizzlies' depth is so ridiculous was that Dillon Brooks — the team's second-leading scorer and best perimeter defender — missed well over half of the season, too.

I get that the Suns were pretty close to unimpeachable, but their excellence wasn't really a this season thing. They made the fucking NBA Finals last year — we knew this team was really good. Memphis was far less of a sure thing, and its ability to lose a star without missing a beat — for longer and to better results than Phoenix did with Chris Paul — speaks to both Jenkins' creativity and consistency as a bench boss. 

Again, tough race, lots of deserving candidates. This hardly feels like a homer pick.

Regards to: Monty Williams, JB Bickerstaff, Tyronn Lue, Ime Udoka

All-Defensive Teams

First Team: G-Marcus Smart, G-Mikal Bridges, F-Giannis Antetkounmpo, F-Bam Adebayo, C- Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Jrue Holiday, G-Matisse Thybulle, F-Evan Mobley, F-Jaren Jackson Jr., C-Robert Williams III

Smart and Bridges are relatively easy selections as this season's two premiere perimeter ballhawks that saw the floor enough to contend here (sorry, Alex Caruso & Gary Payton II). Antetokounmpo is a no-brainer, and the only real knock against Adebayo is the six weeks he missed, which is tougher to dock a player for in a season where pretty much everyone missed time. We're sliding Adebayo into a forward spot, as he definitely belongs on the First Team, along with Gobert, who also missed time but can't be relegated. 

Thybulle gets the Second Team's first guard spot fairly easily, while Holiday still passes the eye test a bit better than snubs like Patrick Beverley (who's lost a half-step) and Fred VanVleet (who, despite being an apex irritant, simply isn't big enough to close out like Holiday can). JJJ would've had a First Team spot if he'd kept his post-December pace up for the season's first two months, and Williams was, by pretty much any metric, either first or second-best defensive center this year. The last spot goes to Mobley, a preternatural defender who somehow finished seventh in DRPM as a rookie, in a close call over Jarred Vanderbilt and Pascal Siakam.

Defensive Player of the Year: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

Full transparency: I'm writing my DPOY from an airport bar at 7am on my way to Cancun — if it seems like I mailed this one in a bit, that's why.

Another difficult award to decide, only this time it's because nobody really has an iron-clad case here. 

Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green spent the majority of this season trading blows as the two heavy favorites, but then both of them got hurt in late January, with their teams' defenses promptly going to shit as a result. While the effects only underscore the importance of these two dudes to their respective teams' resistances, Draymond ultimately missed too much time, while Utah's defense remained fairly bad even when Gobert returned. 

In their wakes, Marcus Smart and Bam Adebayo made late charges over season-long contenders Giannis Antetokounmpo and Mikal Bridges. While Smart and Bridges both pass the ye test with flying colors, metrics do little to support their case as the best defender on their own teams, let alone in the entire league. We can't lean purely on stats, especially in defensive realms, but they can help clear murky waters.

Antetokounmpo was his usual brilliant self, but Milwaukee's never been worse on defense in his prime, and stopped playing it entirely for a solid month in February-March before flipping the switch late in the season. 

That leaves us with Adebayo, who, despite missing close to six weeks with a thumb injury, was arguably both the most diverse and impactful defender in the league for a Top-5 defense that was arguably the league's best at full strength.

There's your DPOY. Now, back to my Caesar.

Regards to: Marcus Smart, Rudy Gobert

All-NBA Teams

First Team: G-Luka Doncic, G-Devin Booker, F- Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Joel Embiid, C-Nikola Jokic

Second Team: G-Ja Morant, G-DeMar DeRozan, F-Jayson Tatum, F-Kevin Durant, C-Karl-Anthony Towns

Third Team: G-Stephen Curry, G-Chris Paul, F-LeBron James, F-Pascal Siakam, C-Rudy Gobert

Joker, Embiid and Giannis were the three best players in the NBA this season — they all need to be on the First Team. You'll probably note that Embiid doesn't play forward. The league has made him and Jokic eligible at the position erroneously, as a loophole, because they know shoehorning us into position-specific voting that leaves one of the two best players on the Second Team is extremely ridiculous. 

Doncic was nuclear over the second half, and even his "slow start" was still an All-NBA-worthy effort. Booker gets the last First Team spot in a close call over Morant and DeRozan, with Ja missing a bit too much time and DeMar's Bulls semi-imploding in the second half. 

Thus, Morant and DeRozan slot in on the second team, easily joined, in my mind at least, by Tatum — who made yet another staggered leap in this season's second half and is now inarguably a Top-10 player. Durant should be here too; he missed a lot of time but was possibly still the best player around when healthy. And Towns not only delivered another steller offensive campaign, but his best on defense, which helped define Minnesota's success.

Curry was the MVP odds favorite early in the season, but then he had his worst shooting month in recent memory and, on the heels of that, got injured. He has to be docked, but not too much. Paul takes the last guard spot in a close call over Donovan Mitchell, Fred VanVleet and Trae Young, partly because he's still awesome and partly because Phoenix kinda needs a second guy here. They were that good. 

Siakam had the best season of his career and was a diverse threat on both sides of the ball, often playing out of position at center and unlocking the lineups Toronto thrived with. LeBron's here in spite of the Lakers being a total tire fire this season, because there's only so much you can blame a guy who averaged 30/8/6 on efficient shooting. Gobert takes the last spot in relatively close call over Bam Adebayo and Jarrett Allen.

Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Again, a really difficult award to decide. Joker and Embiid battled in an epic joust across the season's second half, with Giannis demanding inclusion in the discussion down the stretch.

And while Embiid and Freak had seasons that were nothing short of historic, Jokic, again, should stand alone on the MVP pedestal. 

The cliche argument for Jokic is also the most damning for everyone else: Basically every single catch-all advanced stat says he's the best player in the league. PER. Plus-Minus (both real and box). Win shares.VORP. RAPTOR. It doesn't matter where you look, Jokic's name tops the list. And while most metrics have inherent flaws and can present biases, when every single one of them points in the same direction, it's usually a sign. 

Jokic was a one-man army for a Nuggets squad that essentially was missing its second- and third-best players for the entire season. He dragged Denver's injury-riddled roster to competitive results night in and out, squeezing damn near 50 wins out of a team with no other 15+ ppg scorers, and raising his teammates' floors in ways even Embiid and Antetokounmpo couldn't claim.

Even on the most basic levels, Jokic's stats profile is just godly. 27/14/8 on .661 true shooting is absurdly efficient production, such that Jokic is going to set the single-season record for PER, besting Wilt Chamberlain's 1961-62 season when he averaged 244 points and 87 rebounds per game (Editor's Note: numbers possibly exaggerated).

And while many Jokic detractors point to his ostensible reputation as a leak on defense, the evidence they can pcall on is drying up. Jokic registered another season near the top of several key defensive metrics, including leading the NBA in both defensive win shares and DBPM while finishing Top 5 in defensive rating and sixth in DRPM. Joker was also tenth in the league in steals this season for good measure. I acknowledge that those numbers are kind to Jokic and he's not necessarily an All-Defensive candidate, but let's get over the fallacy that not being an elite rim protector makes him a bad defender. 

Another close call and painful choice, but Jokic feels like the right call here. And in a season that will hopefully be defined by another wide-open title chase, it's fitting to have the MVP rest fairly uncertain.

Regards to: Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Friday, May 14, 2021

Banter's 2021 NBA Awards

So, this season existed. 

Yeah, it was rushed. Yeah, it was a bit of shitshow at times. Yeah, this was probably a really dumb year to introduce the modified play-in round. 

But this season existed. And to have done it on the turnaround that the NBA and its players did is something fairly remarkable. 

While all involved deserve a serious kudos – especially the Toronto Raptors, who were forced to effectively spend the entire season on the road – we're here today to honor those who truly stood out. 

Nobody could've blamed a player for having an off year. Between the ongoing pandemic, truncated offseason, and mangled schedule, there existed every plausible reason for someone's head, body, or both to not fully be in the game.

These guys brought it though, and so without further ado, let's hand out the Basketball Banter 2020-21 NBA Awards. Envelopes please...


All-Rookie First Team: LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Saddiq Bey, Immanuel Quickley

All-Rookie Second Team: Jae'Sean Tate, Desmond Bane, Isaiah Stewart, Facundo Campazzo, Cole Anthony


Rookie of the Year - LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets

This Rookie of the Year race brings up two important angles when figuring these awards out. 

The first – and this is of particular importance this year – is how much to dock a player for missed time. Is each game sidelined a greater portion of a shorter season, and thus a greater detriment? Or should we be more lenient on players who had to weather a condensed schedule on next-to-no turnaround under some very weird conditions?

The other is the intangible factor: How much did a player resonate on a level deeper than individual performance? 

LaMelo Ball has missed 21 games of his rookie campaign with a busted wrist, and while he began his leave with what seemed like a bulletproof ROY lead, Anthony Edwards made damn sure the voters at least had a decision on their hands, averaging 23.5 points post-All-Star and loudly raising his career arc to "looks like a superstar".

But Melo was a clear superstar from the get, and remains the superior all-around player after year one. His playmaking was somehow even better than advertised, his scoring more efficient than Edwards', his defense superb for a first-year point guard.

Other things equal, had Melo not been injured or Edwards done this all season, either would have won this award in a landslide, but as it is, the two are painfully close to choose between. 

In the end, it's back to those intangibles. The Hornets had an unprecedented buzz (sorry) about them this season; it was cool to be a Charlotte fan for the first time since Larry Johnson's Mrs. Doubtfire impersonation. And even in a season where Edwards served up several absolutely devastating facials and scoring outbursts, Ball was responsible for many more "wow" moments with his preternatural passing, all while galvanizing a team that massively overachieved in 2021.

Regards To: Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Saddiq Bey

Coach of the Year - Tom Thibodeau, New York Knicks

Another extremely tough award to decide. The margins between Thibodeau and Suns coach Monty Williams are razor-thin.

Both helped rescue franchises from epochs-long droughts of awfulness. Both presided over what will be roughly 8-spot improvements in the conference standings. Both got levels out of their players we didn't know existed, and kept their teams executing with startling consistency.

But several things – back to those intangibles again – give Thibodeau an edge in my books: 

The Suns were already showing signs of being good. Granted, nobody gave them credit as legitimate title contenders before the season, but they were fairly clearly a team on the rise, one accelerated by Chris Paul's acquisition (more on that in a minute). Meanwhile, the Knicks were still supposed to be utter dog shit, entering this season with the league's third-lowest projected win total (more on that in a minute, too).

Paul's arrival in Phoenix gave Williams the closest thing to a player-coach that exists in today's NBA (one whom Monty had already coached, at that) to help permeate the good word to a young team. Paul has arguably the highest basketball IQ in the entire league, housed by a sage veteran with an iron work ethic and OCD-like perfection impulse, who leads by example and has left an indelibly positive imprint on every team he's ever played for. Thibodeau had...Taj Gibson? 

Furthermore, Thibodeau did far more than just turn a bad team around this year. He thwarted almost two full decades of the most thorough organizational incompetence in NBA history. He turned the Knicks from a pariah no star player would touch in the league's biggest market, to a relevant, competitive, proud franchise. In one season. 

If you look at the trajectory of both teams, Thibs should definitely get more of the blame for his squad's dramatic improvement, in a situation that blossomed far less organically. With a race this tight, that means all the difference. 

Regards To: Monty Williams, Quin Snyder, Steve Nash

Sixth Man of the Year - Joe Ingles, Utah Jazz

Another nail-biter, this time between two teammates. What drama! 

Clarkson appeared to have this in the bag mid-season, leading bench players in scoring by a huge margin for a team that, at the time, was capturing all the headlines with one of the most dominant romps in recent NBA history. 

But gradually, a dude from his own locker room started to steal all the momentum, and frankly, I can totally understand why. 

Ingles' game is understated. He looks like more like your kid's Scouts leader than an NBA player, and is possibly the least-flashy player in the league. But god dammit is he ever effective. 

Clarkson scores more, but Ingles is the more well-rounded offensive player. Jingles is a master of subtleties, who executes about as efficiently as any player in the league. He was tenth among all non-PGs in assist-turnover ratio this year, and put up one of the best-shooting seasons in NBA history. 

Ingles is also the superior defender of the two, filling more roles on a Jazz squad that has weathered long absences to both its starting guards. Ingles has thus started 28 of his 65 games, which, while somewhat against the spirit of him being a "sixth man", still leaves him eligible here, and this year of all years, fits the season's narrative all too conveniently. 

Regards To:  Jordan Clarkson, Jalen Brunson, Derrick Rose

Most Improved Player - Julius Randle, New York Knicks

Okay, now after a few photo-finishes, here's one of three awards that wasn't even close. 

Prior to this season, Randle was little more than a driftwood battering ram; a black hole who could outmuscle just about anyone to get to the rack or grab a rebound. But questions about his ability to do other things and contribute to a winning basketball team lingered. 

Well, apparently Randle used the downtime wisely while the Knicks sat the bubble out. 

He came back this season like Rachael Leigh Cook in the second act of She's All That. NBA fans could hardly recognize this dude who was suddenly filling multiple roles – for a Knicks squad that was winning for the first time in eons – on both sides of ball.

Randle took several vital upgrades and incorporated them into his skill set seamlessly. He went from an abhorrent 3-point shooter to an elite one (.277 last year to .415), on a higher volume (3.6 to 5.4), while now actually being defended that far out. In doing so, he became one of the NBA's most dangerous all-around scorers, dropping 24 ppg despite playing on a defense-first squad that sauntered at the NBA's slowest pace.

His assist rate almost doubled, while his turnover rate actually decreased. It was a stunning transformation for a player who had a virtually 1-to-1 assist-turnover ratio a year ago, and shown few glimpses of upside as a playmaker. Randle was fifth among big men in assists per game this year; two of the guys ahead of him (Nikola Jokic and Draymond Green) are arguably the best-passing big men ever, and a third (Domantas Sabonis) is the offspring of the next-likeliest contender to that throne.

And he fucking busted his ass on defense like never before, becoming both an immovable stone in the post and a strong switch/closeout threat on the perimeter. As of May 12, he sits 11th in D-rating and second in D-win shares; no one can be faulted for giving him All-Defense consideration.

Randle's transformation was emblematic of – and a serious catalyst for – the Knicks' amazing surprise season. Spoiler alert: it's not the only Banter hardware he's taking home. 

Regards To: Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, Michael Porter Jr.



All-Defense First Team: G-Ben Simmons, G-Marcus Smart, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Bam Adebayo, C-Rudy Gobert

All-Defense Second Team: G-Jrue Holiday, G-Mikal Bridges, F-Draymond Green, F-Jimmy Butler, C-Joel Embiid


Defensive Player of the Year - Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

Centers are, fundamentally, the backbone of an NBA defense — the foundation within which all other players are rooted. 

Literally the last line of resistance, a center must protect the hoop – the thing their team is trying to keep the ball out of – from not only his own man, but anyone who enters his realm. The center is also usually all-seeing behind the action, able to call out screens, read movements, and shift into help positions.

As such, a good defensive center is critical, and this award's history reflects as much. Since 1990-91, 22 of the 30 Defensive Player of the Year winners have been centers, and only three winners – Kawhi Leonard, Ron Artest and Gary Payton – wouldn't be considered small-ball centers by today's standards. 

Gobert will add to that tally when he inevitably wins his third DPOY in a few weeks. He once again propelled the Jazz to the NBA's best defense, acting as a roaming deterrent to anyone thinking of coming near the basket. Despite fewer players being willing to test him, the Stifle Tower still ranked fourth in block rate, while gobbling up more defensive rebounds than anyone in the league. 

Rudy dominated defensive metrics this year, pulling off the triple crown of leading the NBA in D-win shares, D-rating, and DRPM, the latter of which by an absolutely silly margin.

Much respect to Ben Simmons for lending incredible credence to the over-used "guards all five positions" attribute, but what Gobert did this season was undeniable.

Regards To: Ben Simmons, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo



All-NBA First Team: G-Stephen Curry, G-Luka Doncic, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Nikola Jokic

All-NBA Second Team: G-Chris Paul, G-Damian Lillard, F-Julius Randle, F-LeBron James, C-Joel Embiid

All-NBA Third Team: G-James Harden, G-Devin Booker, F-Paul George, F-Jimmy Butler, C-Rudy Gobert


Most Valuable Player - Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets 

In the end, this was a landslide.

The sad part is that injuries – an unfortunately common theme in this season's overall narrative – robbed us of what was going to be a truly special MVP race, with LeBron James and Joel Embiid both looking like imposing contenders. Even James Harden tossed his name in the ring after the most un-MVP like start to his season (and resulting trade destination) imaginable. 

But as those dudes all succumbed to a weird season, Jokic steadily drove the Nuggets up the West standings as the team around him rounded into form. Despite the annual ambiguity about the MVP award's context, he served so many tangible definitions of value this season. 

Jokic used to show up to camp lethargic every season, and would take a month or so to play himself into condition. This year, he arrived in the best shape of his life, dropped a 29-point triple double in the season opener, and never looked back. 

Joker kept Denver afloat through early season inconsistency when they, like several other deep bubble runners, lagged out of the gate. He kept them afloat further (assisted by Michael Porter Jr.'s leap) when Jamal Murray tore his ACL at the most horrible time (not that there's ever a good time to tear your ACL). 

The flashy Serb did so by delivering one of the most impactful statistical seasons in NBA history. 
26.5 points on a pristine .647 TS%, 10.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists is the stuff of legend. He swept the league-best mark in basically every major advanced metric, often leading by margins that weren't close at all. 

He even, by some metrics (4th in D-win shares and 6th in DBPM), was among this season's best players on defense. And while suggesting that Jokic is anywhere close to a Top-10 defender is a gross over-appraisal, his conditioning and improved awareness have made him far less of a liability on that end. 

In an era of basketball increasingly defined by “small ball” and “spacing”, Jokic and Embiid are defiantly reminding the league that centers are still relevant, waging a resistance against a major movement with their dominance. 

And, as of writing, Jokic has also played in every single game for Denver this year, which juxtaposed against the injured outcomes of most other contenders, fair or not, makes his impact that much more remarkable. 

In a season defined by unpredictability and absences, he was a consistently unstoppable franchise rock who had by far the best campaign of anyone in the NBA.

Regards To: Joel Embiid, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Banter's 2020 NBA Awards

So, clearly this isn't how we expected the season to go.

2019-20 was perhaps the most bittersweet several months in NBA history. A season flooded with compelling storylines and newfound competitive parity was derailed by the tragic passings of two straight-up legends in David Stern and Kobe Bryant, before ultimately being stranded in purgatory by COVID-19.

While the season remains on pause and the league scrambles to cobble a contingency plan for this totally unprecedented situation, us fans are left to wait under an anxious blanket of uncertainty.

If this season is in fact ever completed - which given the USA's alarming response to the pandemic seems increasingly less likely - it will be drastically curtailed. Everything from a shortened offseason to a play-in tournament and 3-game series are being tabled for a playoff format. As a wise man once said; "desperate times call for desperate measures".

In the meantime, there remains the not-so-trivial subject of the NBA's regular season awards, and what the hell to do about those. Given the anticipated COVID timelines (regardless of Trump's blindly optimistic projections), it seems pretty safe to assume that the regular season, as we know it, is over.

With that being the case, and because frankly I'm pretty bored without any basketball to watch, now seems like a good time to roll out Banter's picks for the 2020 NBA Awards. So without further ado, envelopes please...

ALL-ROOKIE TEAMS

First Team: Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, Kendrick Nunn, Brandon Clarke, Tyler Herro

Second Team: RJ Barrett, Coby White, Eric Paschall, De'Andre Hunter, Terence Davis 


ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: JA MORANT, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
There's sure to be a growing narrative around message board conspiracy theorists that Corona screwed Zion Williamson; that if the regular season had finished, he would've gained enough momentum - possibly dragging the Pelicans into the playoffs - to topple Morant's claim.

It's an unfortunate circumstance. Had Zion played a full season, he probably would have won Rookie of the Year, what with his endless highlights, over-performing team, and transcendent, ahead-of-his-years play.

But, in reality, while Zion accomplished those feats for six weeks, Morant did all the same things from Day One. He galvanized a team that was universally considered lottery fodder, sparking the NBA's biggest surprise, best feel-good story, and a League Pass MVT contender.

Morant led all rookies in points and assists by a mile; showcasing an offensive game that's as dynamic and lethal as it is flashy. He gets into the paint at will, is already an elite finisher, and has both the vision and audacity to hit open men anywhere. While he wasn't an amazing defender (rookie PGs seldom are), he showed the tenacity and awareness that will form a solid foundation on D.

Only bolstering Ja's argument is his team's narrative; the Grizzlies leapfrogging to playoff contenders, with Morant as their unquestioned leader. While team success typically doesn't define an ROY season, it certainly enhances a contender's performance when he's the main catalyst.

Morant comfortably cleared averages of 17 points and 6.5 assists on 45% shooting. These may not seem like eye-popping numbers, until you isolate them and realize that Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson are the only other rookies ever to do so.

Regards To: Zion Williamson, Kendrick Nunn, Brandon Clarke

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: MONTREZL HARRELL, LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
This may seem unoriginal given that I'm running back last year's winner, but to hell with voter fatigue, Trez was equally deserving this season.

Harrell's season was a heightened version of last year, in which he (as mentioned) won Banter's 6MOY award, and finished third in the actual voting. 2019-20 saw him boost his scoring and rebounding averages (in virtually the same amount of playing time), only now flanked by two All-NBA players, who surely cannibalized points and rebounds organically.

Trez's advanced stats and efficiency indicators are all startlingly similar to his 2018-19 marks. Some slight fluctuations are natural with variance, but he was essentially the same player, only on a much improved team. It was the same smart, brutally effective hustle from Harrell, night in and out.

That he maintained those production levels adds credence to his Sixth Man candidacy; able to make the same contributions to a contender as a team overachieving as an 8-seed. Think of it like a kid skipping a grade and still getting the same marks, or a boxer fighting up a weight class and maintaining his record. 

He finished third in bench scoring, third in FG%, fifth in rebounds, and led all bench players in PER with a 23.17 mark that ranked 20th league-wide. Another close call for Clippers teammates, but Trez deserves the nod this year.

Regards To: Dennis Schroder, Lou Williams, Derrick Rose 


MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: LUKA DONCIC, DALLAS MAVERICKS

There seems to be an annual furor about the context of this award and what exactly it means to have "improved". There are a ton of interpretations, but many (myself included) contend that a player making "The Leap" - clearly evolving into a bonafide star - is the most impressive argument an MIP candidate can make.


There were no shortage of Leaps around the NBA this year, but the most impressive came from Doncic.

Skeptics might infer that Luka was bound for greatness, and that this type of progress from him was expected, if not preordained. To me, it's a weak rebuttal.

Yes, Doncic seemed destined for greatness after 2018's third-overall pick put on a historic rookie campaign that saw him drop the rarefied 20/5/5 line reserved for Hall-of-Fame talent (or Tyreke Evans). But for him to be this good, this soon, is entirely unexpected and unprecedented.

His basic popcorn stats shot up from 21.2/7.8/6 to 28.7/9.3/8.7, rounding out arguably the league's most robust basic line. His eFG% rose almost 10% to .531, despite him shouldering an increased load on offense (usage rate up 21%), and being one of the league's most-targeted players by opposing defenses. Through all this, his turnover rate decreased slightly, while all of his major advanced metrics rose noticeably on both sides of the ball.

Largely as a result of Doncic's precocious stardom, Dallas over-performed for much of the season. Expected to scrap for the final playoff spots, the Mavs were postseason locks by Christmas, sporting (*double-checks stat sheet*) the best team offensive rating in NBA history.

Doncic, already a star by most definitions, confidently entered the NBA's pantheon this season. He's going to be an All-NBA first-teamer, and will likely place top-5 in MVP voting. To be accomplishing this at 21 years of age - regardless of pedigree - is simply amazing.

We all knew Luka was going to be good, but this type of career arc is indicative of an all-time talent. As the league's burgeoning global popularity prepares for its post-LeBron era, it's safe to assume Doncic is more than capable of leading the new school.

Regards To: Bam Adebayo, Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum 

ALL-DEFENSE TEAMS

First Team: G-Patrick Beverley, G-Ben Simmons, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Anthony Davis, C-Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Eric Bledsoe, G-Marcus Smart, F-OG Anunoby, F-Bam Adebayo, C-Brook Lopez



DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS
All jokes aside about reigning DPOY Rudy Gobert having "shut down the entire league";

Giannis put together an absolute juggernaut defensive season. Statistically speaking, it was very similar to last year, but the Jazz's inconsistency and Milwaukee's defensive dominance have put the spotlight where it should be.

Basically every metric points to Giannis being the NBA's best defender. He led the league in D-rating, D-win shares and DBPM this year. In doing so, he led Milwaukee to within a hair of being (statistically speaking) the best defense in league history.

Giannis is also beyond a doubt the most versatile defender in today's game, and arguably ever. He's able to switch seamlessly between assignments; a prototype for a league trending towards position-less ball. He can smother any player, anywhere on the court, acing the eye test in an unprecedented way.

The only even potential knock on Antetokounmpo's case for DPOY is that his steal and block %s are down slightly from last year. And it's really tough to count that against him when he still averaged one of each, and led all qualifying players in opponent FG% at the rim.

Gobert may have been the poster boy for the COVID outbreak, but Giannis has been shutting the league down since November.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, Ben Simmons


COACH OF THE YEAR: NICK NURSE, TORONTO RAPTORS
As usual, the Coach of the Year race was a melee this year, with at least five or six bench bosses meriting consideration for an abstract and very subjective award. But in the end, the trophy should go to Nurse, and it's not particularly close.

My basic logic for this award usually comes down to three questions:

- Who did the most with the least?
- Who overcame the most adversity? and,
- Which successful team owes the most to coaching?

In the context of this season, Nurse has to be at or near the top of all three of those criteria. Nobody could have blamed the Raptors for sliding down the standings after losing playoff demigod Kawhi Leonard in free agency. But instead, Nurse piloted them to a better winning percentage than last season (albeit one in which Leonard load-managed his way to 22 DNPs).

What makes that pace even more astonishing are all the potholes along the way. Toronto has been perpetually-injured this season, with, literally, every member of their rotation shuffling in-and-out of the lineup on a seemingly nightly basis.

All of this would submarine just about any team's season. Per Sportsnet via ManGamesLost, the Raptors led the NBA in win shares lost to injury. Obviously this depleted Toronto's talent pool, and gave them fewer options in terms of lineup diversity.

It also crushed any sense of continuity on the roster, as players spun in and out of floor-mates like a square dance at the Legion. Nurse was forced to not only mix-and-match new rotations weekly, but trust some of his younger and unproven players in key roles.

Things worked almost flawlessly. OG Anunoby and Norman Powell had career years. Terence Davis stood out among several out-of-nowhere rookies. Chris Boucher was very encouraging in his rotational debut. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson became serviceable again. Matt Thomas provided several relevant stints.

And the leaps made by already-established Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have solidified the core around which the Raptors can build their future.

All that speaks to the amazing developmental culture that Nurse and his staff have instilled, yet another reason why he's the clear winner this season. One can only hope that a fully-healthy Raptors roster will eventually get the chance to defend their crown.

Regards To: Billy Donovan, Taylor Jenkins, Mike Budenholzer

ALL-NBA TEAMS

First Team: G-Luka Doncic, G-James Harden, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-LeBron James, C-Nikola Jokic

Second Team: G-Damian Lillard, G-Chris Paul, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Anthony Davis, C-Bam Adebayo

Third Team: G-Russell Westbrook, G-Ben Simmons, F-Jayson Tatum, F-Pascal Siakam, C-Joel Embiid


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS 
Yes, I'm giving Giannis the MVP/DPOY double-dip for the second year in a row. Not because I'm lazy or fanboying him, but because he's simply been that good.

Much respect to what LeBron James is somehow still doing in Year 17 against every notion of athletic decline that we hold. If there were a "Still Got It" award, he would sweep. But suggesting that he was better than Antetokounmpo over the course of this season is asinine.

Let's start with basic stats: Giannis put up a ridiculous line of 29.6/13.7/5.8 this year, adding one block and steal each for good measure. In today's popular (but flawed) context of comparing players' stat lines across eras, Giannis is singular. He's the only player in NBA history to ever do those numbers.

His advanced stats paint an equally-dominant picture: Giannis led the league in usage %, BPM, Defensive Rating and Win Shares per 48, finishing top-3 in a litany of other metrics. He tied for the fifth-best all-time PER, behind a single season from LeBron (08-09), and entries from Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.

It's nothing short of historic. Giannis has a very realistic shot at joining Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon as the only players ever to win MVP and DPOY in the same season. Compound that with back-to-back MVPs at age 25, and Giannis is putting together a legacy resume that - championships pending - projects him among the game's all-time greats (I'm talking the top 10-15 range) when all is said and done.

The Bucks' dominance this season is only another facet to Giannis' MVP case. Milwaukee was among the very best regular-season teams ever: a top-5 all-time net rating, and only Giannis' late injury derailing their pace to flirt with the hallowed 70-win mark.

Unfortunately, we may never know how that dominance would have translated to the playoffs. But either way, Giannis will add some more hardware to his trophy case after an all-time season.

Regards To: LeBron James, Luka Doncic, James Harden

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Basketball Banter's 2018 NBA Awards

Coming to you live from my parents' place where I'm recovering from foot surgery, it's the 2018 Basketball Banter Awards!

Let's face it; you're not here for an intro. You're going to read fourteen awards columns this week anyway, most with intros saying more or less the same thing. I'll spare you the agony here; on with the show:

ALL-ROOKIE TEAMS
FIRST
G-Ben Simmons, G-Donovan Mitchell, F-Kyle Kuzma, F-Jayson Tatum, C-Lauri Markkanen

SECOND
G-Dennis Smith Jr, G-Bogdan Bogdanovic, F-Dillon Brooks, F-John Collins, C-Jarrett Allen

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - BEN SIMMONS
In a harvest plentiful of talent, two first year (technically) phenoms rose above the rest and made this award truly painful to figure out. The beef is legit here; it's a very close race.

In one corner, Donovan Mitchell single-handedly saved Utah's season, coming out of nowhere as a dynamic lead scorer on a team bereft of offense. His unlikely role in the Jazz's equally-unlikely ascension to homecourt in the West is a convenient narrative.

But there's also Simmons, who despite his much-trumpeted aversion to threes does so much at an elite level right from the get.

He's already one of the NBA's best playmakers, with that rare  LeBron/Nash/Rubio third eye for passing lanes. He's lethal off the dribble; a soft finisher who's too long for guards and too quick for bigs. And on D he's a prototypical uber-stopper who can switch between all positions and is highly mismatch-proof.

His numbers are unique and speak for themselves. Unlike virtually all top picks, he earned his for a playoff team that - pending Joel Embiid's return - will be terrifying for a core making its postseason debut.

Regards To: Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Kyle Kuzma

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR - LOU WILLIAMS 

Any time a sixth man is legitimately part of the All-Star discussion (let alone in a conference as
talent-packed as the West), this award is pretty much a wrap.

The Clippers were hit with wave after wave of injuries and seismic trades this year. Nightly they trotted out hastily-cobbled replacement rosters whose anonymity quickly became a running joke in NBA circles.

Yet somehow they remained competitive far longer than conceivable, clawing for a playoff berth until the season's final days. Doc Rivers seriously redeemed himself as a coach, but Williams was indispensable as go-to offense while Blake Griffin was either injured or traded. Lou BBQ'ed just about every team in the league during a Dec-Jan stretch that ranked among the season's loudest statements by any team or player.

Sure, he's not exactly a stout defender, and the Clippers did end up missing the playoffs. But this award has never been about two-way play or team success. Lou only checks a couple boxes, but does them with enough force to make this a landslide win.

Regards To: Fred VanVleet, Eric Gordon, Will Barton

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER - VICTOR OLADIPO

The most obvious of the award winners is also perhaps the most unlikely. Oladipo arrived in Indiana with his career firmly in neutral after several seasons of Orlando’s dysfunction and Russell Westbrook’s megalomania. He had the pedigree of a #2 pick, but doubts were beginning to grow that any upside remained.

We'll never know exactly what got to Vic. Maybe it was one too many look-offs from Russ. Maybe it was hearing all summer how badly Indiana was ostensibly robbed for Paul George. Whatever it was, something....changed.

Like he stumbled across a video game power-up, Oladipo ascended overnight to a level none of us knew he had. He was dropping 20+ nightly on more efficient shooting clips, while also raising his stats across the board; enough so in steals to lead the league.

Oladipo's emancipation coincided with the Pacers' wholly-unforeseen return to the West playoffs. He firmly claimed Indiana's top-dog status before Myles Turner could even get back on the court. As a result, the George trade has been heavily re-evaluated (word to Domantas Sabonis), and Indiana's "rebuild" lasted only a couple of weeks. 

Regards To: Spencer Dinwiddie, Demar DeRozan, Andre Drummond

ALL-DEFENSE TEAMS
FIRST
G-Chris Paul, G-Jimmy Butler, F-Draymond Green, F-Anthony Davis, C-Rudy Gobert

SECOND
G-Ben Simmons, G-Jrue Holiday, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Kevin Durant, C-Joel Embiid

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - ANTHONY DAVIS
Very strange year for DPOY voting. Kawhi Leonard - the default pick - played in like two games. Draymond Green - the reigning champ - spent many games in cruise control, and had his candidacy largely neutered  by his own teammate.

Rudy Gobert - who was widely-regarded as being an injury-free season away from the award - inevitably got injured. What this award comes down to is whether anyone else did enough to outweigh the 26 games he missed.

Some may see Gobert's impact as undeniable for a Jazz team that played within a hair of the league's best defensive rating and far exceeded projections. But Davis was just too much of a force, particularly over the back half of the season when he turned the NBA into his own Marvel movie.

Brow led the league in blocks by a mile, while finishing fifth in rebounds and 15th in steals. If the raw numbers don't impress enough, he was third in defensive win shares, and 11th in defensive rating. He was also practically the only Pelican with over 50 appearances and a positive DBPM (Jrue Holiday's 0.3 hardly counts).

A motivated Davis is also one of the rare players whose absurd numbers still betray "eye test" intangibles. The Brow offers dynamic disruption unlike few others; a high-IQ stopper with an apex combination of length and quick leaping, who can close out on a quick wing just as easily as he can erase a floater or smother a low-post brute.

It was long-posited that Davis had all the tools to become a revolutionary stopper. He hasn't even given us the full treatment yet, but in this season of would-be candidates, it's enough for the trophy.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green/Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid



COACH OF THE YEAR - BRAD STEVENS 
Trying to sort out coach of the year is always s bit of a mindfuck, since it’s arguably the most arbitrary of all the awards, and usually predicated on some unforeseen circumstance altering a team’s season (#narratives). 

This year was especially difficult with a litany of coaches running convincing campaigns: Terry Stotts defied expectations again by piloting the Blazers to the top of the West’s bloated midsection. Nate McMillan did the same with the Pacers in the East, in an even less likely case. Dwayne Casey re-animated Toronto’s offense, unearthing the NBA’s best bench in the process.

Quin Snyder dealt with his usual onslaught of injuries, keeping the lotto-projected Jazz competitive. Doc Rivers went from "how does he still have a job" to "how is his team still in the playoff hunt". And even reigning champ Mike D’Antoni put on an epic title defense, withstanding injuries to both his stars while snaring the seemingly-untouchable #1 seed from Golden State.  

But Stevens was Optimus Prime this year. The Celtics have absolutely zero business being anywhere near the East’s #1 seed. Not after flipping 2/3 of their roster, losing Gordon Hayward five minutes into the season, and having their last month torpedoed by injuries to their best player and whole rotation. 

There’s a mounting body of evidence that suggests Stevens is the NBA’s neo-Popovich: from his teams annually exceeding expectation, to his X and Os wizardry, maximization of unconventional lineups, and the ongoing regressions of players Boston trades away. One could make the argument that Stevens is beginning to deserve the same default vote of confidence many voters have awarded Pop for years. 

Weigh the result of his season against all the obstacles he faced, and it’s tough to compute a different winner for this award.

Regards To: Quin Snyder, Nate McMillan, Terry Stotts

ALL NBA TEAMS
FIRST
G-James Harden, G-Damian Lillard, F-LeBron James, F-Kevin Durant, C-Anthony Davis

SECOND

G-Russell Westbrook, G-Demar DeRozan, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-LaMarcus Aldridge C-Joel Embiid

THIRD 
G-Chris Paul, G-Victor Oladipo, F-Jimmy Butler, F-Karl-Anthony Towns, C-Al Horford

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER - JAMES HARDEN 
And so, the odyssey of a player who seemed destined for Susan Lucci status after several seasons of narrow MVP misses is capped.

While LeBron James and Anthony Davis both mounted formidable late rallies and made this award at least a debate, ultimately Harden's candidacy had built itself too strong a stratosphere to be punctured.

Davis responded to DeMarcus Cousins' injury with a catastrophic 30/12/3.5blk/1.5stl post-All Star
split that has - against all likelihood - kept the Pelicans in the playoffs. LeBron had flat-out one of the best seasons in a 15-year career that is unequaled in the longevity of its all-around dominance.

On the flip side, when Cousins was healthy, Davis wasn't even the Pelicans' best player for stretches. And LeBron's agelessness aside, this season was a multi-faceted disaster for the rest of the Cavs, which - fair or not - kind of hurts his case.

Harden meanwhile has meshed seamlessly with Chris Paul, without giving up an iota of his role as Houston's driving force. His assists and rebound numbers dipped (natural with Paul's arrival and Clint Capela's emergence), but Harden's 31/5/9 line is a monster output, on a sublime .620 TS%.

For those unimpressed by "popcorn stats", he demolished advanced metrics, leading the league in win shares, PER, BPM and USG%, finishing behind only LeBron in VORP.

All this while powering a 66-win juggernaut that did the almost-unthinkable in nabbing the West's #1 seed from Golden State, despite on-the-low not being so healthy themselves.

Reputation nods aside, it was Harden's turn this year, and he made a case that was impossible to ignore.

Regards To: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Banter's 2017-18 NBA Season Preview


Another NBA season is upon us, this one bookending perhaps the single most ridiculous summer in league history. With dominoes freshly scattered all over the board, there's plenty of uncertainty abound, but we're going to figure it all out here (or least go down trying).

Here are Banter's predictions for the 2017-18 season, starting with possibly the single crappiest  geographic grouping of basketball teams since the early 90's California high school scene:

LEASTERN CONFERENCE

15. Chicago Bulls
Well that whole "Three Alphas" thing sure worked out didn't it. With Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler all now playing in different cities (definitely for the better), the Bulls are left at ground zero. That they got such a crappy, high-risk return for Butler will only spike the pain of their self-inflicted rebuild.

14. Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks full-on nose-dove this summer, deciding to bottom out after years of competitive mediocrity. As a result, Dennis Schroder is now their best player, which doesn't bode well for his ego or Atlanta's season.

13. Brooklyn Nets 
Still haunted by the ghost of Billy Kings Past, the Nets are only ready for baby steps at this point. Gaining a few picks by taking on the burdens of Timofey Mozgov, Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll's contracts will help them salvage some draft equity, but won't move the needle much on-court this year.


12. Orlando Magic

It's still tough to expect much from the Magic, who are now basically the Wooderson of NBA rebuilds. They've stunted their own growth with mismanaged assets; their progress this year relies on maligned talent without much of an identity or pecking order.

11. Indiana Pacers
Will go as far as Myles Turner can take them. Their veteran-laden rotation, while not as pitiful as the rest of the East's basement, is largely capped in terms of upside.

10. New York Knicks
The Knicks can now unleash Porzingis fully, which is more than any of the East's other lottery bound teams can say. Their rotation isn't awful relative to their neighbors, several youngsters could over-perform, and there should be a sense of relief amid this roster without the Phil-based negativity clouding their franchise.

9. Philadelphia 76ers
In this shallow of a conference, they're a playoff team with a healthy Embiid. But at this point betting on a healthy Embiid is foolhardy, so a narrow miss - trust #TheProcess - seems like the call.

8. Charlotte Hornets
Will likely make the East playoffs by mere virtue of not being as crappy as the rest of their competition. The forthcoming Michael Jordan/Dwight Howard owner-employee dynamic could be one of the season's most entertaining subplots.

7. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons had just about as bad a season as possible in 2016-17, and get to clap back with a renewed Reggie Jackson, ostensibly-upgraded shooting, and seriously inferior resistance. They can probably book playoff tickets.

6. Miami Heat
After least season's improbable midseason 180, Miami are suddenly deep rotation with an effective space-and-pace mandate. Sustaining last season's second-half success may not be unrealistic; they'll be playing a lottt of winnable games against East fodder.

5. Toronto Raptors

For a competitive team, the Raptors have adapted amazingly poorly to the evolving NBA game, with tons of midrange jumpers, a clunky center, and abhorrent ball movement (dead last in virtually every assist metric last year).

Attempting to reinvent themselves as 3-point gunslingers isn't going incredibly well so far. They can't sink too far in such a shallow conference, but they'll struggle to maintain footing with the rise of...

4. Milwaukee Bucks
Already having rattled the Raptors' cage last April, the Bucks appear set to leapfrog them this year. They'll benefit from strong continuity, a full season of Khris Middleton, a year of growth for Thon Maker, and Giannis probably uncorking an MVP-type campaign.

And this is to say nothing of Jabari Parker, who looms in rehab as one of the NBA's biggest x-factors. If he returns healthy, they're a mortal lock for the Top 4.

3. Washington Wizards
The Wizards came within Kelly Olynyk on PEDs of the East Finals last season and are returning virtually the same team. They have to be here.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers
The defending East champs enter the season with their new starting point guard shelved indefinitely, and far more adjustments than a Finals three-peater would like to make.

Between their numerous new bodies and health risks, shifting identity, and the token "Playing for June" mentality, a first seed might not be all that likely.


1. Boston Celtics

They consolidated their talent, but also lost several valuable role players. Even with a questionable defense and some mismatched talent pairings, Brad Stevens is a lineup wizard who's repeatedly found ways maximize unconventional edges. The Celts nabbed the first seed last year and probably got better; expect it to happen again.


BESTERN CONFERENCE

15. Phoenix Suns
"Two years away from being two years away" applies heavily here. The Suns are stocked with upside, but short on experience and anemic on both sides of the ball.


14. Sacramento Kings

Signing George Hill, Zach Randolph and (to a lesser extent) Vince Carter might stymie their youth movement, but should keep Sacramento slightly off the West floor. It's fair to question why they wouldn't just hand De'Aaron Fox the keys while gaining 2018 lotto equity, but Vivek sees things the rest of us don't.

13. Dallas Mavericks
After another summer of free agency shenanigans, the Mavs bring back a largely-unchanged roster from their unmemorable 33-49 run last year (plus Dennis Smith Jr). Given how much better the West has gotten, expect them to stumble a bit.

12. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers upgraded pretty much their entire roster through almost every medium: trades, the draft, free agency and player development. There will definitely be a learning curve though; anyone expecting this team to make the playoffs - rebuilding from the very bottom - is lying to themselves.

11. New Orleans Pelicans
More time for Boogie and Brow to coalesce can only be a good thing for the Pelicans. But they're also embarrassingly thin around their stars, and just handed $125 million to a guy who's pretty likely to get injured at some point this year. Stealing Cousins from the Kings might be the only thing saving Dell Demps' job right now.

10. Utah Jazz
The Jazz will probably still be an elite defensive team, but are going to have a wonderfully difficult time scoring with the rest of the lottery, never mind the West's best. Ricky Rubio can find easy looks for Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, but spacing will be limited since all three are total non-threats from distance. Look for Rodney Hood to have a large year.

9. Memphis Grizzlies
The West's ultimate dice roll, with everything in the air from Marc Gasol's future, to the development of several projects, and the perilously expensive health of Chandler Parsons. They're younger and more athletic, but likely not talented enough for their playoff streak to survive.

8. Portland Trailblazers
A full season with the Bosnian Bear on board might mean a return to the playoffs for Portland, who also added potential impact rookies in Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan. They also won't have to live with the daily burden of Allen Crabbe's contract on their conscience.


7. Denver Nuggets 

Will be a wildly entertaining League Pass watch; a high-energy team with several gunners, built around a center who thinks he plays on the Harlem Globetrotters. They'll score on everyone. Everyone will score on them (except the Jazz). Good times.

6. Los Angeles Clippers
To state the obvious the Clippers will miss Chris Paul, but should fare OK for a team that just traded a top-10 player. Their rotation is deeper and more balanced, with upside potential in several spots and - finally - a starting 3 in Danilo Gallinari. If Blake Griffin stays healthy, they're playoff-bound.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Huge upgrades for the Wolves, who are now far deeper, far more talented, far more experienced, and far more functional than last year's iteration. The West's homecourt scene will be difficult to crash, but the 5-seed seems like - barring injury - the Wolves' floor.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder 
A newly-united "Big 3" of stars usually takes time to adjust to each other. It happened in Miami. It happened in Cleveland. It sure as shit happened to the Lakers. Given the heavy overlap in skill sets of the Westbrook/George/Anthony Scylla-monster, we can expect it to happen here.

OKC's going to need some time to get their stuff together, hell they barely beat an Australian League team the other night. Even if their ceiling's high, the Thunder will probably lose enough early games to squander a top-3 seed.

3. San Antonio Spurs
Betting against the Spurs is one of the most consistently-tested ways to make yourself look like an idiot. Time and time again, they've come into a season with naysayers doubting their age, depth and competitive edge, which has almost always resulted in humble pie. So yes, even amid the vastly improved competition, they'll probably still be here.


2. Houston Rockets
They were already an elite regular season team (trademark 2006, Mike D'Antoni), but adding Chris Paul to the existing space-heavy pick-and-roll horror show will be deadly.

The Rockets - overperformers on D last year - should also be a better defensive unit with PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute joining their perimeter. They'll steamroll enough weaker teams for the 2-seed, then flame out in the second round.

1. Golden State Warriors
Duh.


ALL-STARS

East Starters: G-John Wall, G-Kyrie Irving, F-LeBron James, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Kevin Love

East Bench: G-Kyle Lowry, G-Bradley Beal, F-Gordon Hayward, F-Kristaps Porzingis, F-Al Horford, WC-Kemba Walker, WC-Goran Dragic


West Starters: G-Stephen Curry, G-Russell Westbrook, F-Kevin Durant, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Anthony Davis

West Bench: G-James Harden, G-Chris Paul, F-Draymond Green, F-Paul George, F-Jimmy Butler, WC-Blake Griffin, WC-Karl-Anthony Towns



AWARDS

As some of you know, I recently took a gig writing for the Memphis Grizzlies site Beale Street Bears of the Fansided network. Part of the arrangement is an exclusivity clause that my work for them not be duplicated elsewhere.

I recently submitted my picks for the NBA's regular season awards as part of BSB's preseason Roundtable series; in an effort to not potentially plagiarize myself, I've linked my predictions below:


ROY: Lonzo Ball

COY: Tom Thibodeau

6MOY: Jae Crowder
(Submitted the above pick before all this nonsense about Kevin Love starting at center - thus creating room for Crowder to start - began leaking. Still possible that doesn't happen and/or work, so I'll stand by my pick)

MIP: Myles Turner

DPOY: Rudy Gobert

MVP: Kawhi Leonard


ALL-NBA


First Team:
G-Russell Westbrook, G-Steph Curry, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Kevin Durant, C-Anthony Davis

Second Team: G-James Harden, G-John Wall, F-LeBron James, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, C-Karl-Anthony Towns 

Third Team: G-Chris Paul, G-Kyrie Irving, F-Draymond Green, F-Paul George, C-Nikola Jokic


PLAYOFFS

East First Round: Celtics > Hornets, Cavs > Pistons, Wizards > Heat, Bucks > Raptors
West First Round: Warriors > Blazers, Rockets > Nuggets, Spurs > Clippers, Thunder > Wolves

East Semis: Celtics > Bucks, Cavs > Wizards

West Semis: Warriors > Thunder, Spurs > Rockets

East Finals: Cavs > Celtics

West Finals: Warriors > Spurs

NBA Finals:  Warriors > Cavs

Here's to another great NBA season - enjoy the action!

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Banter's 2017 NBA Awards


Today marks the final stanza in a chaotic, indecisive and statistically hyperbolic NBA regular season. Uncertainty and disbelief were abound:"Can Joel Embiid please stay healthy?", "When will it click for the T-Wolves?", "Which PED did the Heat start taking?", "What is Rob Hennigan's endgame?", "How many times can Draymond Green kick someone in the junk?", "How long until a Kings fan assassinates Vivek Ranadive?"...The questions were endless.

True to form, this year's awards races were also highly nebulous. One award's would-be landslide winner fell victim to a technicality, four were contested battles among numerous worthy contenders, and a final one - the most important - required literally hair-splitting four historic individual seasons.

Let's try and make sense of the madness, with Banter's 2017 NBA Awards:

ALL ROOKIE TEAMS
First: G-Malcolm Brogdon, G-Buddy Hield, F-Dario Saric, F-Marquese Chriss, C-Joel Embiid
Second: G-Jamal Murray, G-Tyler Ulis, F-Jaylen Brown, F- Rodney McGruder, C-Willy Hernangomez



ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: DARIO SARIC 

Joel Embiid created the ultimate awards conundrum this year, putting forth a historic rookie season, only to have it cut short by a minutes restriction, and ultimately a torn meniscus. Embiid's health was the room's proverbial elephant well before he was drafted, a scenario that's only underscored now that he's proven himself a generational talent.

The cold reality is that I simply can't in good conscience give an award to a guy who barely played in a third of the season's games, regardless of how sensational he was in that time.

While few other rookies stepped forward to make a legit ROY claim, Dario Saric gave the Sixers plenty of hope for the future after Embiid went down. While he's struggled with his shot from distance, Saric is clearly a crafty-passing, multi-gifted threat who the Sixers can count as a core piece now that #TheProcess has begun to build. That the rest of the rookie class was so weak only makes him stand out more.

Regards To: Joel Embiid, Malcolm Brogdon
Preseason Pick: Joel Embiid (if only...)

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: JAMES JOHNSON

Up until this season, Johnson had spent his career flashing obvious skill and athleticism, but bouncing from team-to-team amid nebulous character and discipline issues. Few outsiders knew exactly why he pissed off every coach, but it was clear that given the opportunity, he could be a valuable addition to an NBA rotation.

Said opportunity came this year when the Heat were seemingly lottery-bound, and stud swing defender Justise Winslow went down for the year. With nothing to lose, Erik Spoelstra tossed Johnson major minutes off the pine.

Shedding a visible amount of his bulk, Johnson was still mean as ever, though noticeably quicker off the dribble and on re-jumps. Not only did Bloodsport uphold his reputation as a defensive wrecking ball, but became a multi-faceted scoring threat, secondary ball-handler, and crunch-time staple for the surging Heat. His 13/5/3.5/1/1 line came on 48% shooting with a top-20 defensive rating. Not sexy, but damn effective.

He brought a wider array of assets off the bench than anyone not named Andre Iguodala, playing a crucial role in the Heat's midseason miracle. Also an outside contender for MIP, Johnson's unlikely explosion couldn't have happened for a more appropriate team.

Regards To: Zach Randoph, Eric Gordon, Andre Iguodala, Greg Monroe, Lou Williams
Preseason Pick: Brandon Knight (possibly drunk at the time)

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO


2016-17 was the year of the Greek Freakout; an explosion of cataclysmic magnitude which had been observed on the horizon for years, but whose breadth was not fully understood at the time.

Instead of making the leap to NBA All-Star this year - the toughest leap to make as a basketball player - he leapfrogged to legit fringe MVP candidate.

The Freak may have hinted at this production after his move to point guard late last season, but having all his pieces come together this well, so soon, is transcendent. Giannis is about to finish Top 20 league-wide in points, rebounds, steals, blocks and field goal%, top-25 in assists, and his advanced stats portfolio has skyrocketed among the NBA's best.

What he did this year was nothing short of versatility history, and devastating for the rest of the league, knowing they'll be fed a steady diet of Antetokounmpo Stew for the next decade-plus. Leading a playoff team in all five "popcorn stat" categories at 22, a typical Giannis sequence can see him covering the stereotypical roles of all five positions. The guy does literally everything but shoot (even going from "god-awful" to merely "sub-par" in that department).

His rapid ascent is the only reason the Bucks weren't already dead in the water once Khris Middleton returned and resurrected their defense. When Giannis' shot arrives, it's all over for the rest of us.

Regards To: Nikola Jokic, Otto Porter, Myles Turner, Rudy Gobert, Bradley Beal
Preseason Pick: Myles Turner (not far off)

COACH OF THE YEAR: ERIK SPOELSTRA

This was supposed to be a down year in Miami. Hell, as recently as mid-January when the Heat were 20 games below .500 and about to punt the season's remainder for better draft position, it was a down year.

But then alchemist Erik Spoelstra engineered an imaginative and massively unlikely turnaround, weaving a rag-tag bunch of castaways and no-namers into one of the NBA's hottest teams. Miami is 28-11 since the season's midway point, their entire roster playing above expectations, and even at that greater than the sum of their parts.

Spo dramatically flipped this team's identity on both sides of the ball at a juncture where nobody could've blamed him for rolling over and playing dead. He was inventive enough to craft free-wheeling, 3-bombing lineups from a scrapheap, motivating journeymen like the aforementioned Johnson, noted headcase Dion Waiters and perpetually lost Wayne Ellington to play out of their minds with unprecedented consistency.

He did more with less than any coach in the NBA this year, did so seemingly overnight, on the fly mid-season, and as legendary competitor Pat Riley prepared to raise the white flag. In an award race that values an abstract variety of accomplishments, Spo's resonate loudest.

Regards To: Gregg Popovich, Mike D'Antoni, Scott Brooks, Brad Stevens
Preseason Pick: Quin Snyder (valiant effort)

ALL-DEFENSE TEAMS
First: G-Chris Paul, G-Tony Allen, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Rudy Gobert
Second: G-Patrick Beverley, G-Andre Roberson, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Anthony Davis, C-Hassan Whiteside


DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: DRAYMOND GREEN 

There was only so much holding him back. After losing this award narrowly to Kawhi Leonard in back-to-back seasons, it was finally Draymond's turn this year, and not because of some reputation nod (which should hold no governance over any award).

Draymond Green was the most versatile, disruptive, and simply best defender in the NBA this season, crushing the widespread preseason doubts about the Warriors' D. Instead of crumble, Golden State was within a hair of the league's best defensive rating all season, and Green was the glue holding it all together.

He defends all five positions at an elite level, able to switch effortlessly in pick-and-rolls, thus rendering the NBA's most common offensive weapon useless against him. His name is plastered at or near the top of every advanced defensive metric, and he joins Giannis Antetokounmpo as the only players to rack up both 100 blocks & steals.

Early on, the Warriors' surprise success on D was falsely attributed to Kevin Durant's increased effectiveness, a fallacy laid bare when he missed over a month without their D-rating budging an inch. Draymond was the difference all year, making this award undeniably his.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis 
Preseason Pick: Draymond Green (bullseye)

ALL-NBA TEAMS
First: G-Russell Westbrook, G-James Harden, F-LeBron James, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Anthony Davis

Second: G-Steph Curry, G-John Wall, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Jimmy Butler, C-Marc Gasol
Third: G-Chris Paul, G- Isaiah Thomas, F-Kevin Durant, F-Draymond Green, C-Rudy Gobert 


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: RUSSELL WESTBROOK

Westbrook just put forth a one-man act of destruction unlike any the NBA has ever seen (ball-hogging and stat-padding accusations notwithstanding).

He dragged one of the shallowest and least-proven rosters in the NBA to a 6-seed, for a franchise his re-signing directly rescued from a crippling rebuild (talk about value).

He led the league in scoring at a clip bested only three times in the past 20 years. To boot, he posted a better assist % than the assists per game leader, with whom he just happens to be tangling for this award.

He was the epitome of the eye test, a dizzying blur of perpetual motion who loomed with omnipresence; equal parts Bugatti Veyron and nuclear warhead.

He was beyond clutch in a litany of close calls, single-handedly winning innumerable games, like his much-fabled triumphs in Orlando and Denver.

As you perhaps have heard, he averaged a season-long triple double, breaking what was long thought to be among pro sports' untouchable records.

And he absolutely decimated some of the NBA's most valued advanced metrics this year, not only leading the league, but doing so by margins that weren't close at all (per Basketball Reference):



Westbrook also shattered the NBA's all-time Usage % record this season, or in layman's terms, the Thunder leaned on him more than any single team did a player in league history. While some might argue if it was for better or worse, a variety of statistics tell us OKC would have been completely fucked without him.

Westbrook did everything for a team that was only even remotely competitive because he did everything for them. History has predicated that the MVP must come from a top-3 team, but in a season where individual performances made an absolute mockery of historical precedent; this award should do the same. Ball-hogging and all.

Regards To: James Harden, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard
Preseason Pick: Kawhi Leonard (so close, yet so far)