Showing posts with label Philadelphia 76ers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philadelphia 76ers. Show all posts

Monday, October 12, 2020

NBA Bubble Power Rankings Part I: The Losers

Well. That was a journey. 


The NBA pulled off a miraculous feat of planning, regulation and social construction, stuffing most of the league into a self-contained bubble, in Florida of all places. 

While the United States went to complete and utter shit all around them, the bubble stayed strong, finishing the season and giving us closure to the weirdest NBA campaign ever.

Trying to recap the past few months in a brief, clean little piece is pretty damn difficult. We've seen so much - both in the NBA bubble and the calamity of the outside world - that a concise summary hardly does it justice. Compound that with the general disorienting haziness that 2020 has shrouded us all in, and it becomes near-impossible.

Instead, I'm delving into a complete breakdown of the bubble's key entities with the NBA Bubble Power Rankings. The higher the number, the worse the ranking. 

We'll be doing this in three parts: The Losers, The Middle Class, and the Best of the Bubble. As with many things in life, you've gotta get the bad out of the way before enjoying the good:

Last Place: Racist cops

We need to start here. 

The issue of justice and social equality for people of color was constant throughout the NBA's rebirthed season. 

From jersey messages, to billboards and broadcast graphics, ads, interviews, shoes, masks, and literally anywhere physically possible to get the message across.

After Kenosha, Wis. police shot Jacob Blake seven times in the back in front of his children, the players collectively decided they'd had enough of this shit. Beginning with Kenosha neighbors the Milwaukee Bucks, they staged a strike that would permeate to other leagues, effectively putting Western Hemisphere sports on hold for a weekend. 

The result was a pledged commitment to the movement - not just spreading the message, but ensuring action - from the NBA. Most notably, the league will convert team-owned arenas to voting sites for the upcoming election, increasing both capacity and accessibility in major cities.

What the players accomplished was historic. In a country disproportionately run by rich white people, they made rich white people care about their plight and align in fighting it.

And the league continued to place itself at the forefront of this year's ongoing battle against racial injustice. The NBA was by far the "wokest" of the pro sports cohorts, correctly identifying with the young men (the majority of whom are POC) who make their league what it is. 

Unfortunately, there's both anecdotal and empirical evidence suggesting their plea for humanity has - among several other factors - helped contribute to plummeting TV ratings. It's tragic that many still tune out what's often perceived as a "political agenda" (it's not). But it's beyond admirable that the NBA is still willing to fight the good fight. 

Basketball is growing enough internationally to weather whatever storm the NBA faces from racist "fans" in North America. And the impact of what they helped ignite this summer could be, quite literally, revolutionary.

Second-Last Place: The scum that sent death threats to Danny Green

993. Sports leagues that didn't bubble

982. Mike Budenholzer/Milwaukee Bucks

The extent to which Budenholzer coached the Bucks out of their series with the Heat cannot be overstated. 

He foolishly capped his best players' minutes and refused to make any sort of adjustments to his rotation or defensive scheme. Worse yet, he completely neutered Giannis Antetokounmpo, keeping him off Jimmy Butler Duty, and glued to the bench for the most important stretch of Milwaukee's season (the start of Miami's Game 3 comeback).

As a result, the Bucks are facing DEFCON 1 with an aging core, one year left on Giannis' contract, and back-to-back playoff collapses to match his back-to-back MVPs. Fear for the Deer is more like it. 

957. Paul George

The postseason couldn't have gone much worse for "Playoff P", who averaged his fewest playoff ppg since 2013 and shot a horrid .398 from the field. 

As a result, George was the main Haterade recipient after the Clippers' premature meltdown, and had the internet conjuring up every possible slanderous derivative of his nickname. 

In perhaps a personal low point, Seth Curry - who has a not-so-congenial connection to PG - called him a "bitch ass" on international television. 

936. Newsday's Greg Logan

For thinking that Andre Drummond was the NBA's best defender this year. 

919. Danuel House Jr.

Got kicked out of the bubble after his booty call was busted, which was dumb, clumsy, and selfish all in one swoop.

913. Steph Curry's cornrows

906. Game 7 Steve Ballmer

903. Pascal Siakam

Spicy P was pretty damn mild as he mostly disappeared from Toronto's second-round exit. Fans and pundits alike questioned his status as a franchise player, and he drew many unflattering comparisons to ghosts of Raptors playoffs past. 

898. Marcus Morris

Between his cheap-shot on Luka Doncic's ankle, and seemingly igniting the Nuggets' comeback with his Paul Millsap beef, Morris was more of a pro wrestling heel than a basketball player the past few months.

877. The Reggie Miller-Chris Webber tandem

Miller and Webber have long been two of the NBA's most-derided TV emcees. Webber's a try-hard who comes off corny as hell. Miller's mere aura, much like as a player, is an irritant. Both of their commentaries are shallow, misguided, and often contradictory. 

Due to the bubble's restricted media crews, they spent more time than usual in the same booth and, god, was it ever bad.

849. Los Angeles Clippers

Much like the Bucks, suffered a humiliating second-round defeat. Much unlike the Bucks:

  • lost after being up 3-1
  • weren't beaten by the eventual Conference Champ
  • coasted through the regular season with nonchalance and arrogance befitting a much more accomplished team
The Clippers are a bit higher than the Bucks here because they aren't in quite as desperate a situation, and have already fired their overrated coach (formerly another similarity). But they basically mortgaged their future for this core, and did not do so for second-round losses. 

826. Philadelphia 76ers

Whatever The Process became, it's pretty fucking tough to trust it at this point. The Sixers remain the NBA's most dysfunctional talented team, facing an identity crisis at seemingly every turn. 

They were unceremoniously swept out of the first round. Then Joel Embiid began passive-aggressively subtweeting the organization throughout the Heat's playoff run.

The Sixers now have to look at a serious shakeup in an offseason with no salary cap growth and a highly unpredictable market, while they try and convince some poor soul to pay a 36-year-old Al Horford $26.5 million in 2023 (good luck).

808. Charles Barkley's "GUAR-AN-TEE!"s

802. Replay review length/intervals

798. Coach's challenge selection

780. Danny Green

I'm not entirely sure what Danny Green's done to piss off Lakers fans, but holy shit do they ever hate him.

His inconsistency hardly stood out among L.A.'s supporting cast this year. But there was a fresh round of stones thrown at Green with every missed three, culminating in his now-immortal Game 5 brick. 

729. Houston Rockets 

Apparently forgetting that Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis play for Western Conference contenders, Houston went all-in on small ball, producing another painfully predictable second-round loss. 

Their eradication of every center on their roster came off almost as a trade-deadline gimmick; a fit of desperation from the depths of Daryl Morey's analytics chamber.

In the end, Houston played themselves yet again, having now lost the ideal coach for such a system. They're back at the drawing board without a plan.

700. Nate McMillan/Indiana Pacers

Pacers got swept. Nate got fired. Vic Oladipo wants out. Not great. 

682. Scott Foster

Deployed much like Lieutenant Marimow in "The Wire", Foster, the NBA's resident killjoy referee, became a B-plot villain, drawing ever-increased ire from fans and being name-dropped by Chris Paul in an emotional post-elimination interview. 

667. Russell Westbrook

659. Kendrick Nunn

648. Dillon Brooks' shot selection

643. Zion Williamson

Zion was largely absent from what was supposed to be the Pelicans' triumphant ascent to the postseason. Williamson barely averaged twenty minutes, missing three of the eight seeding games entirely. New Orleans flamed out, not even a factor in the ridiculous four-way final day clusterfuck for the West's 8th and 9th seeds.

It's still too early to call Zion an injury liability, but his first season was as worrying as it was tantalizing. A body that size cannot normally do the things he does; the impact of all that weight and force is considerable.

618. Paul Pierce

While not as irritating as Miller and Webber, Pierce is still a definite minus to most broadcasts. His takes are like hour-old McDonald's french fries; cold, too salty, and tough to digest.

586. San Antonio Spurs

Missed the playoffs for the first time since "Anaconda" was the #1 movie at the box office. They're in clear rebuild mode, and don't exactly have an enviable long-term outlook. 

552. Disney World's room service 

538. The "socially distanced bench" concept

520. Jayson Tatum's stiff-arms

Tatum is a supremely-talented basketball player, capable of torching pretty much any defender. Unfortunately, when driving to hoop, he still feels the need to throw more stiff-arms than a Slipknot mosh pit, clearing out defenders as they move with him.

This greasy tendency cost the Celtics on numerous key possessions, now that the refs have caught on. Tatum's got a deep bag of tricks, and he'll need to find more subtle ways of creating space for himself.

514. Twitter over-reactions to flopping

509. Jeff Van Gundy's rants about flopping

506. Actual flopping

501. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Won the MVP. Had to accept it from Greece.

Stay tuned for Part II later this week...

Friday, June 16, 2017

Time Capsule 2017


Back in 2014, I did a piece called the Time Capsule, condensing the NBA season into its most significant or generally awesome moments, and tossing artifacts that represent them in a hypothetical stash for posterity and/or space invaders.

It was one of my favorite compilations to write, touching on the great (KD's MVP season, Adam Silver's debut), the not-so-great (the Dunk Contest), the hilariously bad (Josh Smith's shot selection), and the ominous (Cleveland lucking out a 1.7% chance at the #1 pick, which they would soon flip for Kevin Love).

So after an inexplicable two-year hiatus, the Time Capsule makes its triumphant return for 2017; the things to truly remember from this NBA season:

- Box Scores from Russell Westbrook's 42 Triple-Doubles
The notion of a player actually averaging a triple-double for an entire season seemed too outlandish in today's NBA. Sure, Oscar Robertson was able to do it 55 years ago, but in a vastly different league. Not only were defenses archaic, but opposition painfully less athletic. The whole league also played like it was on meth: the average team possessions per game was 96.4 this season, vs. 126.2 in 1962.

No longer facing complaints about passing to Kevin Durant, Westbrook took it upon himself to generate new complaints about passing to anyone at all. Along the way, his incessant stat-hoarding buoyed one of the NBA's shallowest rosters to a playoff spot, and just might, if narratives are any indication (and they definitely are), win him the MVP.

Whether you applaud or abhor his style, Westbrook made history this year, his compelling chase adding season-long excitement and awe.

- Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter
Although over a year old, Hinkie's legendary farewell opus to #TheProcess resonated deeply this season, albeit posthumously.

The Sixers made strides as an organization for the first time in four years, and have nabbed in Joel Embiid - if good health prevails - exactly the franchise player Hinkie pined for. Next year they'll add Ben Simmons and the third pick in a loaded draft to their core.

It was a painful couple of years for Philly fans, but in a league where so few teams have reason to be hopeful, Hinkie martyred himself for their current salvation. Enjoy Bryan Colangelo.


- Mike D'Antoni's Razor & James Harden's Beard Trimmer
Sans his legendary mustache, Mike D'Antoni joined forces with another form of famous facial hair to spawn the surprise of the NBA season. Many felt that Steve Nash could never be topped as a D'Antoni muse, but James Harden swiftly curbed popular opinion.

While The Beard's confusing disappearing act/quaalude trip in the season's deciding game looms ominously, Houston spent several months as the talk of the NBA, mostly because of these guys.

- Adrian Wojnarowski`s ESPN Contract

- Game-Worn Shoes From Devin Booker`s 70-Point Outing

- One-Way Plane Ticket, New York to Chicago, Dated Jan 9 2017
In one of recent memory's most mystifying incidents, Derrick Rose just up and bounced from the Knicks one day, and didn't bother to really tell anyone. This became problematic for New York when they showed up to that night's game both without a starting point guard, and an explanation as to why. Obviously this could only happen to the Knicks.

Rose returned the next day, but his bizarre bail job was one of the many usual sideshows marring what was already an appalling basketball season in NYC.

- Bust of Phil Jackson with his Foot Firmly Inserted in his Mouth
It was a tough year for Phil. Not only did he face the stern reality that his basketball team still sucks, but made more verbal mis-steps than anyone not named LaVar Ball.

Building a strong case as an increasingly senile jackass, Jackson dropped tomes ranging from counter-productive to outright inappropriate, with an arrogance not befitting of his current circumstance.

- Charles Oakley's Tickets to Feb 8 Clippers @ Knicks Game
But yet still, the lowest point of the Knicks' season came when a petty beef between their childish owner and a former player - one who is revered by New York City and the NBA community - led to Oakley being mobbed by security, dragged out of MSG, and arrested.

Legions of fans, and players both past and present came out in defense of Oak, while James Dolan's ownership tenure grew another ugly, if not predictable stain.

- Giannis Antetokounmpo Jersey with Last Name Removed 
Before half the league knew how to spell or pronounce this kid's last name, he strode to the level of a one-name star. It's now just "Giannis", get used to hearing it.

- Potato Parcels

- Cupcakes

- One of Craig Sager's Suits 
The most touching part of this season stemmed from a sideline mainstay losing his battle with leukemia. Sager's passing was undeniably tragic, but the outpouring of support from all over the league - throughout his courageous fight and after its end, including an awesome All-Star Weekend contest - was an uplifting tribute to a man of amazing spirit (and questionable fashion). #SagerStrong.

- Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker's ACLs

- Detailed Map of Waiters Island

- Funeral Attire
Back in January, shit popped off between John Wall and Jae Crowder, resulting in an on-court fracas, locker room lockdown, and $40k worth of fines, as well as (directly) the NBA's best new rivalry and (indirectly) the best series of the playoffs.

The Wizards donned all black for their next Celtics meeting, but while winning that game, were ultimately the ones buried in a seven-game bout that stood out for its dramatic swings and pure visceral hatred between these up-and-coming East foes. Word to Kelly Olynyk.

- Stopwatch Frozen at 1 minute, 30 seconds
Because that's how long Klay Thompson held the ball - in 29 minutes of floor time - while dropping 60 on the Pacers. And that's completely fucking incredible.

- Psychiatric Evaluation Report of Vivek Ranadive
It's hard to tell what was more insane: trading DeMarcus Cousins for Buddy Hield (and a pick, whatever), or then claiming Hield has "Steph Curry potential". Dude's got some interesting stuff going on upstairs.

- This Sweater:


- This T-Shirt:



- This Photographer Vest: 


- Isaiah Thomas' Lateral Incisor
A heroic All-NBA season by the 5'9" Thomas was upended when his sister was tragically killed in a car crash mere days before the start of the playoffs. A distasteful debate thus raged across the court of public opinion; every talking head with a soapbox opining as to whether he should play.

Thomas chose to not only play, but to do so loudly enough to silence all of them. After Otto Potter went all Wolf Stansson on him, IT hung 53 points on the Wizards - most in a playoff game in 14 years - on what would have been his sister's 23rd birthday.

- Velociraptor Fossil
Because the asteroid that murked out the dinosaurs struck Toronto in the form of LeBron James.

- An X-Ray of Blake Griffin's Foot

- Jimmy Buss' Baseball Cap

- Chandler Parsons' Contract

"Chancun" looks like a decent gig for a $22 million salary. Speaking of which;

- This Tweet:


- And This One:



- Larry Nance's Crowning of Brook Lopez (and Timofey Mozgov's Reaction)
Among many memorable dunks this season, perhaps none was more vicious than Larry Nance Jr. putting the hapless Brook Lopez underneath the Jordan logo. As if enough bad things hadn't happened to the Nets already.  

Almost as incredible was Timofey Mozgov, who ran away like he'd just witnessed the Independence Day aliens attack or something. It was Mozgov's single most important contribution to the NBA season; slightly steep at $15 million, but at least it was more than Parsons brought to the table.                                                                        

- Tim Duncan's Retired Jersey


- A Pair of Big Baller ZO2s


- The MVP Ballots
This season`s MVP race was an exercise in futility; an attempt to separate the exploits of four players who put up historic campaigns that made this award a total skeet-shoot. Their virtues have been extolled at length, and while Russell Westbrook appears to be the favorite after his late-season push, the trophy going to any of he, Harden, LeBron, or Kawhi Leonard would be an acceptable outcome.

- Gregg Popovich's Pachulia Rant 

- The Skates Steph Curry Lent Rudy Gobert 

- TempurPedic Matress
Resting stars was never more of a hot-button issue than during this year's slog through the 82-game regular season. What was once a Pop Special became adopted league-wide, as coaches sat stars out for a litany of reasons ranging from injury prevention to preservation for the playoffs.

Obviously this drew the ire of league and media alike, especially when "rest games" coincided with the televised contests the NBA was recently paid so much money for. Fans both in the stands and at home were selectively deprived of the game's biggest names, a particular affront to those who'd purchased tickets in advance, expecting LeBron and instead getting Richard Jefferson.

There may not be a clear solution at present, so we can count on this dilemma persisting until a compromise is struck between burnt-out players and fed-up fans.

- This Instagram Post:

- And This One:



- Captain Obvious' Uniform
Hotels.com's wise-cracking spokesman is a pretty accurate embodiment of this season's outcome; one that anybody who wasn't braindead or woefully naive saw coming the second Kevin Durant dropped his Player's Tribune announcement.

The inevitability of a Cavs-Warriors Finals was unfadeable, and Golden State confirmed what many suspected in easily dispatching of LeBron & Co. While Once-King James is sent back to the drawing board, and masses of other teams bide their time, the Warriors seem very much an insurmountable force for the near future.

- Kevin Durant's Finals MVP Trophy
But above all, this should be remembered as Durant's year. For better or worse, he drove the NBA's major plotline this season (as well as many minor ones), and ultimately stood its greatest victor. Adding a championship to his Hall of Fame resume punctuated a dominant Finals, and a season where he made himself the alpha male of arguably the greatest team ever.

While his critics can still harp about the means to his end, the deed has been done. Durant's a champion, and doesn't appear ready to stop with just one. In a league where superstars are measured largely on their ability to win, he's put himself in a historic limelight. If there's one image that will linger and endure from this season, bet on this being it:


Wednesday, November 19, 2014

The Start of Something Good


I usually try and avoid writing too much at the beginning of the NBA Season for 3 reasons that all stem from the same root - the small sample size of games we've seen:

1. Opinions and analysis are fickle and changing at an NFL-like rate
2. It's much harder to make educated observations and not use terms like "so far" and "it seems"
3. Many assertions are totally liable to turn upside-down and make me sound like an idiot

That said, with nearly a month gone by in the season, and 10+ games for all teams, we're beginning to see what trends are emerging with serious traction, and will play a relevant role in how this season plays out. The good news for NBA junkies is that most of it points to this season being one of heavy competition - at least outside of Philadelphia, which is where I begin my rants about some of the things that have stood out to me this season:

The Sixers are Historically Awful
Philadelphia was clearly shook after gracefully losing 26 straight games last year and not getting the Draft's top pick, or even a guy who'd play his rookie season for the second straight year. So they gutted their roster even further and now pose a very realistic threat at breaking the NBA's all-time mark for the worst single-season record at 9-73 - also held by the Sixers.

I don't like using my own NBA knowledge as a benchmark for a team's relevance, but have to in this case. I know very little about most of Philadelphia's roster (and don't feel compelled to since most of them will be out of the league soon enough) which says a thing or two about just what they're fielding this season. I take Michael Carter Williams' open letter at face value; they are  trying, it's just that their talent level is woefully outmatched by every other team in the league.

This roster's worse than the one the the that preceded it, and unfortunately for the Sixers (or perhaps fortunately for their clear motives) there aren't two handfuls of teams chasing Lotto balls this year, which makes for far fewer winnable games.


The Kings are This Year's Suns (Or are the Pelicans?)

Last night's NBA slate saw an intriguing encounter between two West upstarts seeking to break onto the Playoff scene. One of them was highly probably to ascend the conference's stiff hierarchy this year, while the other has instantly vaulted itself from lottery doormat to early-season powerhouse.

Let's settle something quickly: the Sacramento Kings aren't as good as the season's first couple of weeks suggested. Granted, they beat up on some tough competition, but have shown cracks in their consistency over the past few games, allowing New Orleans to overwhelm them offensively in last night's third quarter, while themselves losing their offensive rhythm and playing sloppy, turnover-prone ball. The same sort of meltdown cost them a seemingly-inevitable W against Memphis last week. They should be in the mix for a lower-tier Playoff spot however, with both their team defense and ball movement having improved noticeably from last year, and DeMarcus Cousins playing like a can't-miss All Star.

New Orleans will also contend for the postseason barring a serious injury. Their roster is undeniably shallow, but they field a killer 7/8-man rotation that can contort to pretty much any size opposition, and score at absurd rates when they're all clicking (and Tyreke Evans isn't in pseudo-LeBron mode). Which brings us to:

Anthony Davis Probably Isn't Human
Quick question: Who holds the NBA's all-time record for single-season PER?

You'll have to go diggin' in the crates for the answer, all the way back to Wilt Chamberlain's 1962-63 season: a PER of 31.82. For the record, he averaged 45 points & 24 rebounds per game that year.

He's closely followed by a slew of seasons in the 31 PER range by somewhat-notable names like Michael Jordan. LeBron James, and Shaquille O'Neal. Kevin Garnett's best season was a 29.44, Dirk Nowitzki's a 28.06, and Tim Duncan's a 27.06.

Keep that in mind when noting that 21-year-old Anthony Davis is currently on pace for a PER of 36.16, or in basic English, the most efficiently dominant NBA season in history by a considerably wide margin



The Thunder Are In Trouble

My title here was going to be "Thunder Can't Catch a Break" but that would just be, as politically-correct people say, 'too soon'.

Two broken bones - one in Kevin Durant's foot, the other in Russell Westbrook's hand - have put OKC's season in serious turmoil, as their offensively-challenged teammates struggle to keep pace in the meantime. Even Perry Jones couldn't stay on the floor once he emerged as the unlikeliest of point-producers.

Whether you want to blame God, Lil' B, or some Sonics fan with a Clay Bennett voodoo doll, the Thunder are suddenly in a deep hole when you consider how competitive the West has become. Last year, in a nightmare conference that was still softer than this year's version, the 8th seeded Mavs lost 33 games. By that loose standard (which should be give-or-take about this year's mark), OKC will currently have to win 65% of its remaining games just to make the Playoffs.

That number will only amplify the more they dip beneath .500 with fewer games remaining. Westbrook is still around two weeks away from returning, and there's been a conspicuous lack of updates surrounding Durant's progress. Any delays to their rehab, or extended periods of acclimation, will likely sink the Thunder's season.


David Lee Should be Dealt

A lot has been made about the Warriors' roaring start to this season, particularly their having been able to do so 'without David Lee'. Well, allow me to posit another take on things: The Warriors are better 'without David Lee'.

Golden State's M.O. is pretty clear: They're a strong defensive team who relies more offensively on floor-spacing and wing scoring than any other roster. A truly strong defensive  team is a lot like a Greek phalanx, with each part protecting not only itself, but another; one glitch in the armor exposes the whole unit. The Warriors already field one "glitch" in Steph Curry, who gambles too much and is bullied by bigger guards. In addition, Lee - rebounding aside - is, by some metrics, the very worst post defender in the NBA. That's 40% of your 'strong defensive team''s starting lineup being somewhere between "sketchy" and "complete fucking liability" on defense.

Meanwhile, Lee's replacements - Marreese Speights, and lots of small-ball sets with Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes - have provided the Warriors with more toughness and mobility on D, and better offensive spacing; they patch up Lee's gaping defensive shortcomings while conforming to the team's scoring M.O. This is to say that Lee's net detriment to the Dubs' defense is greater than his marginal benefit on offense. It's pure addition by subtraction; we saw it in 2013 when they over-performed without him in the Playoffs, and we're seeing it again now. It should become an issue when Lee makes his return.

The Concern About Cleveland was Misplaced
First of all, the obvious: Cleveland is absolutely abhorrent defensively. Everyone suspected as much with their leaks at PG and PF and no semblance of a post-bound rim protector, but the results have been rock-bottom. Their 104 oppg is the worst mark of any likely Playoff team, and their offense hasn't yet reached the consistent level of omnipotence it was pegged for (though since their six-assist game it's definitely turned a corner).

But there's room for this figure to improve: first, the Cavs have faced an inordinately high number of good offensive teams; only two of their opponents so far (Utah, and of course, the Knicks) rank in the League's bottom half scoring-wise. Second, their poor team defense should improve marginally over time, not only in welcoming back Matthew Dellavedova (by far their best-defending guard), but becoming more accustomed to each others' habits and deficiencies. Third, Cleveland holds a valuable trade exception, which will almost certainly be used to pilfer a rim protector from one of the many teams hoarding cap space like food before a nuclear holocaust.

The real problem: Cleveland is relying far too heavily on its Big 3, who presently rank 3rd, 4th, and 5th in minutes per game. This is bad for a number of reasons; not only does it make Cleveland more of a static roster that doesn't conform well to mismatches, but it obviously puts them an injury away from serious issues (see: Thunder, Oklahoma City). More damning, it wears down their stars for an expected Playoff run, which is terrible news since a) LeBron has more miles on his body in the last decade than anyone in the NBA and, b) Neither Irving nor Love has ever been to the Playoffs, and have no concept of saving something in the tank for the postseason grind.

How 'Bout Them Grizzlies?!?!
And then there were my beloved Grizzlies, atop the West at 10-1 after a miraculous comeback against the Kings, and total ass-kicking of Houston in a battle of the West's best. This comes as a surprise to many, but not necessarily myself, all bias aside.

Memphis was saddled by injury for most of last season, missing Tony Allen and two-way beast Marc Gasol for large chunks of the regular season. When healthy, they sported one of the West's best records, and then came within a Zach Randolph suspension hair of knocking off the Thunder in the first round.

This year they return the same suffocating defense, only with an added boost on offense, not only from the continuity of a revitalized Courtney Lee (a midseason addition last year), but the arrival of Vince Carter, who suddenly actually plays defense. As a plus, Mike Conley's becoming ever-more proficient as a scorer-distributor, and Allen's made up for his critical lack of shooting and ballhandling by becoming one of the NBA's best guards at moving without the ball, whether it be well-timed screens, or back-door cuts on sleeping defenders. This overall attack has made it much harder for opposing defenses to sag down on Gasol and Randolph in the post, which used to be an easy foil for the Grizzlies' offense (anyone who watched the 2013 West Finals knows this all too well).

So for those of you who seem to think another team is destined to rise to the West's penthouse, be warned that it won't be an easy entry. Whether it's the Warriors, Clippers, Spurs, or eventually Thunder who come knocking, this is a different iteration of the Grizzlies; a much more capable two-way team, and one who will play with a constant chip on its shoulder, in one of the NBA's most uninviting home arenas. I'm not prepared to call Memphis the West's undisputed best team, but if they're still here in April, don't act surprised.



Monday, March 31, 2014

The Last Place Penalty

I got on the Shameless bandwagon this week; binge-watching the first season after more than a few friends recommended it, and I did my standard procrastinating. It's turned out to be clever, and hilarious so far.

I bring this up out of irony because there's something clever, hilarious, and ultimately shameless going on in the NBA right now. As if there were much doubt I'm talking about Tank-a-Thon, Riggin' for Wiggins, Impiid for Embiid, the Royal Fumble, or whatever other name you want to give the backwards race that's consumed so much of the Association.

The Sixers just reeled off 26 straight losses as a means to an end - catching up to Milwaukee (a team who was "supposed to compete" this year) and maximizing their equity in this year's lottery. It made headlines for all the wrong reasons, and drummed up plenty of media scrutiny, but the Sixers can't really be held to blame. Their season is merely indicative of a much larger problem; one that's run rampant amid the mainstream sport most driven by individual talent.

There's two sides to this issue, both legitimate gripes: One being that the NBA places too strong an incentive for front offices to engage in "tanking"; wasting their fans' money and time to get a stronger footing to - as they're paid to do anyways - put a winning team together.

The other is that it's never been easy for small-market teams to attract elite talent, a truth that recent trends suggest may only get worse for teams like the Bobcats, Jazz and Cavaliers. And in the interest of overall competitive parity, it's good that teams who, in theory, perform the worst and attract the least talent, have a means to level the field (by getting their choice of the best new players).

A dilemma's been created by conflicting interests; the NBA is sabotaging itself by either providing too little help for struggling teams (one of the many flaws of the "Draft Wheel" proposal) or, as they have now, fostering a system where losses are assets. Philadelphia's one of several franchises actively behaving counter-productively because league conditions have almost engineered it, the Sixers are just following an unfortunate trend and doing it better than everyone else.

A solution that's far from perfect, but makes more sense than the Wheel's convoluted selection schedule (seriously, the NBA has had enough of The Wheel, no need for another one), may be as simple as one commonly found in fantasy basketball: the Last Place Penalty.

Anyone who's ever played fantasy sports knows how easily a league can be wrecked by managers who abandon a season after combinations of injuries, poor strategy, and lack of interest sabotage their chances of winning. At some point, the person running the team figures the time they'd invest in managing rotations, making trades, paying attention to the wire, etc would be better spent, you know, actually doing stuff, since they can't win anyway.

Many people agree that this ruins the overall quality of a league, much in same way that tanking ruins the NBA's overall product. So, most competitive fantasy leagues feature a "Last Place Penalty"; managers will ante-up extra at the beginning of the year (usually 2x the league's buy-in), covering both their entry and the L.P.P (sort of like your damage deposit on a hotel room). At the end of the season, the league's commissioner refunds the penalty sum to everyone but whoever finishes last, with that money either added to the prize pool or broken up among the other teams.

This (in most cases) incentivizes fantasy managers to not totally throw seasons, and at least try to keep pace with everyone else, promoting season-long competition, especially in head-to-head leagues. By now you see where this is going; if the NBA's current Lottery system operated on these terms, the last place team would be paying no penalty, and getting a larger rebate than anyone else.

A pretty simple way to discourage teams from openly bombing as they have this year, while still giving relief to those that need it through the Draft, would be to incorporate the Last Place Penalty into the Lottery system. This would make teams at least think twice before pulling the chute on a season, and guarantee they wouldn't be as eager to slide in the standings.

The penalty could be anything; maybe the last place team automatically gets the 14th pick. Maybe they're levied a heavy fine, lose their mid-level exception that summer, or have to hire Mike Brown. Anything that outweighs the margin between a 20 and 25% chance at the first overall pick, and prevents careless abandon as a means of strategic improvement. It's one way to at least raise the bar somewhere acceptable, to where the NBA isn't being tarnished as easily as your Yahoo! league.

The Sixers have stumbled awkwardly through most of this season, Shameless-ly, like a waste-cased Frank Gallagher after a bender at the Alibi. Also like Frank, they'll be getting their disability check at the end of the month, and the system's going to keep getting worked until a change is made.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Top 9s: The Tank Brigade

Welcome to the Tank Brigade; where the race for professional basketball's worst record is heating up.

Tanking has never been trendier; a shift induced not only by the massive talent pool in next year's Draft, but by a dynamic historical precedent. Not only does it (with very rare exception) take elite talent to win an NBA title - we're talking at least one bonafide Top-10 guy - but with stars aligning in big cities and taking salary cuts to help their teams dodge the cap, it's never been harder for small market/less established teams to land the best players.

The mentality that competing for a low Playoff spot is the League's worst position has never been so prevalent, leading most teams to shoot for the stars, or lie down in the dirt. While the likes of the Thunder and Pacers battle for the Association's best record, there's a more subtle fight in full force. One for the best odds in a gamble to determine a complete gutterball of a season's ultimate worth.

The very worst team stands only a 1 in 4 chance of landing the top pick on a record-based scale, and even a loaded Draft class like the one upon us can have its busts.The Lottery is still very much a gamble. This is degeneracy at its highest stakes; snuffing seasons and making fans wait on a relative dice roll. In a league where owners spent a lockout griping about "competitive parity" just over two years ago.

Some franchises are more or less banking on a lottery miracle, while others have set themselves up nicely for whatever they net in this Draft to join a promising foundation; stockpiling other assets and clearing cap space.

So here are the NBA's Nine worst teams as of today, ranked from worst to first in order of how well they've managed through this whole "Tanking" thing:

9. New York Knicks
Woops.

So this season hasn't been great for the Knicks; the kind that's swiftly gone from alarming, to laughable, to downright tragic.

Their presence here is dubious for any number of reasons, from their Playoff ambitions and gaudy payroll, to the future picks they stupidly dealt, crippling their rebuilding effort. The Knicks will have no first-round pick this season, or in 2016; saved by the Stepien Rule from burying themselves deeper.

They've also traded a slew of second-rounders, to make sage, competitively-priced acquisitions like Andrea Bargnani. This was a total dud of the contract that the Raptors were just praying to unload on some GM who, like most of America, had mostly ignored them and didn't know just how bad Bargs was. Then along comes New York, offering to give them three draft picks, along with cheaper, shorter-term deals, to take him off their hands.

They literally yanked their own safety net before nose-diving down the East standings, and now face an offseason of many questions, with no idea where to begin on an answer.

8. New Orleans Pelicans 
The Pels bought up their own stock prematurely, and currently owning the NBA's second-longest losing streak, are cruising towards an early summer, likely with no redemption in sight.

Like the Knicks, they mortgaged their Lottery equity for current assets, figuring their team to be better and the pick much lower. Sure enough, as soon as you could say "Point Guard Injury Epidemic" and "Tyreke Evans was a waste of money", the Pelicans tilted the scales of the Jrue Holiday deal heavily.

Unless they luck out and land in the top-5, Philly will get the Pels' first-rounder, ironically in exchange for the very player whose absence (along with Ryan Anderson) made this pick become so attractive.

So far, we've learned that Tanking is mostly sub-optimal strategy when you've given away your Draft picks and are among the worst teams by accident.


7. Sacramento Kings
That so much of Sacramento's next season lies in Rudy Gay's $19million player option is a mildly terrifying predicament, especially for a rebuilding team that gave up a bunch of expiring deals for him.

Working in their favor is that Gay has been playing arguably the best ball of his career, able to dominate the rock and shoot with no conscience on a team with low expectations. This might lean him towards putting himself on the market now while his stock's high; locking up another deal before he's dealt to a stricter team ('Rudy Gay's Expiring Contract' would be the most-floated piece in trade rumors next year) and his shot selection becomes an international punchline again.

With Boogie beasting, and a reasonable cap scenario long-term, this could be a solid team in a few years if the pieces come together properly, but so far the movement under new owner Vivek Ranadive has been mostly lateral.

6. Utah Jazz
The Jazz have done an outstanding job of clearing cap room and producing a 2013-14 on-court product that would surely suck enough to get a high Lotto pick.

The problem for them is they may have done it too well.

This team has few attractive pieces, with Enes Kanter, and to a lesser extent Derrick Favors, failing to make much of a leap in their expanded roles, and meshing poorly together as a tandem. Trey Burke will remain, as will Gordon Hayward (for a year, at least) but it's hardly enough to convince the kind of talent Utah's banking on to come spend most of their year in a trendy, must-visit NBA locale like Salt Lake City.

I'm predicting a Jazz offseason that exemplifies why not all cap space is created equal, and leaves them short on the Free Agent Haul.

5. Boston Celtics
The Celtics' season has been somewhat confounding. The two apparent objectives this year were: 1) Trade Rajon Rondo, and 2) Lose as many games as possible. The former didn't happen, and the latter only did after a counter-productively hot start under Brad Stevens.

The good news is that Stevens was an ace hire, and that several Celtics pieces - most notably Jared Sullinger - have seen a spike in value, both to the team and on the trade market. The bad news is that they still have to pay Gerald Wallace $20million over the next two years, and the continuing Rondo uncertainty makes their future very hard to define.

4. L.A. Lakers
The Lakers' range of possibilities for next season is extremely wide:

They currently have over half their cap next year (roughly $35million) invested in two guys who've each played less than ten games this year. That said, the latest round of Steve Nash retirement rumors seem more well-founded than in the past, possibly shaving $10m off the tab.

Since a very large chunk of their roster is off the books this summer, the Lakers (if Nash does hang 'em up) could have safely over $30million in cap space, along with a decent-at-worst Lottery pick.

How all that potential comes together is obviously a tricky variable; TinselTown has always been a favorite destination for big names, but there's no telling just how willing Player X will be to team with Kobe or commit to a rebuild.

With such a large window, the Lakers are sure to come back reloaded, but they only have to rewind their franchise one year to see how throwing a bunch of talent together can be an unmitigated disaster.

3. Milwaukee Bucks
John Hammond is a genius.

I don't say this in any facetious regard; I really think the guy's a mastermind. Last summer, the Bucks were staring an obvious rebuild in the face, with senile owner Herb Kohl demanding that the team stay "competitive" (read: pick in the late Lottery or get swept by Indiana/Miami).

Instead of condemning them to middling mediocrity, Hammond had a plan; he knew his owner was being an idiot, but he didn't want to get himself fired. So he went about his mandate under the appearance of legitimacy, inking deals and making trades that seemed aimed at the short-term, but weren't making Milwaukee any better . He even coerced sports' trendiest website into exaggerating his team's worth in their season preview.

Then when the curtains came up, the Bucks confirmed everyone's suspicions that they couldn't score. At all. Hammond then hired local goons to provoke new-signed defensive backbone Larry Sanders into injuring himself in a drunken nightclub meltdown. As a result, they own the NBA's worst record (/best Lottery odds), two promising prospects in John Henson and Giannis Antetokounmpo (it's his name, get over it), and little long-term financial commitment.

2. Orlando Magic
Few teams made being bad look as easy this season as the Magic, who have a bottom-3 record in the East and plenty going in their favor:

- they have two legitimate foundation pieces (Nik & Vic); they're the only serious tankers who can say that.

- their whole team is bathing in upside; a roster to which they'll add a potential stud in late June

- they have oodles of cap space, and play in Orlando, which between the sunshine, Disney World, and the lack of state income tax, is relatively prime Free Agent real estate


All added up, this should be a pretty quick turnaround for the Magic, which after Dwight Howard hijacked their franchise for 18 months, should come as comfort to their fans.

1. Philadelphia 76ers
THIS is how you suck. The Sixers have by far the largest pot of gold of at the end of this season's shit-rainbow.

First they snaked likely future-All Star Michael Carter-Williams late in last year's Lottery and had him miss a convenient amount of games. They'll get continued growth moving forward from a guy nobody thought would be this good. Then they whittled their payroll down to the bare bones; with somewhere between 17-32million on tap for next year, they'll be the least-constricted team in this summer's spending spree. All the while, losing almost methodically by playing a frenetic pace with a D-League roster.

The plot thickens with the oncoming arrival of potentially game-changing defensive center Nerlens Noel, along with (and here's the best part) not one, but two Lotto picks from the much-ogled 2014 Class. Not only do the 76ers have their own selection, but that of the Pelicans in the highly likely event it lands outside the Top 5.

After the Bynum disaster, the floor fell out beneath the Sixers quickly, but this team has enough going for it beyond this season that they'll likely wind up reaping the greatest spoils of the Tank Brigade.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

PED Watch '12: The Early MIP Candidates

Last year was an exciting one for the Most Improved Player race; a bunch of young guys primed for blow-up seasons delivered on their immense promise and made for a wide-open contest before Kevin Love went all Vince in Oakland while hardly leaving the floor.

This season, PED Watch is back for another thrilling drive to the MIP in what might be the perfect year for widespread outbreaks. Everything about this 66-game clusterfuck lends itself to young guys with upside getting opportunity: veterans being out of shape from the long offseason (and expected no-season), fresher legs having more energy every night, more injuries, more lineup changes, and the added X-factor that only 3 of 30 NBA teams are definitely not in dice-rolling mode. Ya, things have been pretty hectic so far, but who's stood out among the rest? Here's some love for the guys who really spent the extra down time last year puttin' in work:

Kyle Lowry, Houston Rockets - The Rockets had a pretty awful year due to some bullshit out of their own control, from sources both indirect (the Chinese government) and very direct (David Stern), that collectively crippled this otherwise well-managed team. When the transaction they'd spent years saving for was corruptly denied, Houston had little to smile about. Then Lowry came out guns-a-blazin', doing his best Kevin Johnson impersonation and leading the Rockets attack with a poise that put an already-stacked class of NBA PG's on notice. Had he kept up his early pace, this column may not have been worth writing, but despite a recent shooting gaffe (a 9 game stretch where he went 30-99), he remains the strongest contender.

Ryan Anderson, Orlando Magic - As if Otis Smith didn't already look stupid enough for signing Rashard Lewis, but he's managed to cushion the insult to his own injury by unearthing a guy who does everything Lewis did for them (arguably better) at a zillionth of the cost. While even Anderson hasn't been immune to the recent plague of disconnect on an injured and obviously distracted Magic squad, he's having a career year, offering a unique combination of tough, versatile defense from the 4 with deadly 3-point shooting. Pat Garrity must be proud.

Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons - Having NBA League Pass is awesome for any number of reasons, most of all the ability to see teams that never get any burn on TV. It's great being able to watch the young, exciting Wolves come of age, the under-repped Pacers prove their threat, or the clueless Wizards just try not to kill each other. There's one team that I can find no time for: Detroit. Because they're a fucking quagmire of everything that's wrong with the NBA these days: horrible contracts, maligned talent, no identity, untimely stagnation, awful coaching, and the lack of balls to fire the guy with deep franchise roots whose front office savvy expired quicker than a Radio Shack warranty. It's a shame because Greg Monroe's just an absolute beast who's going to be a perennial All-Star once Dwight changes conferences and/or he gets the hell out of Detroit.

Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves - Playing the game with an aggressiveness that matches his Russian gangster/kodiak bear stature, Pekovic has blossomed in his newfound starting role as Kevin Love's bash brother and Ricky Rubio's low-post muse. Apparently thriving under the tutelage of 80's great and Wolves assistant Jack Sikma, the fans in Minny have been treated to Peko's re-defined court awareness, and improved footwork and finishing (there's been a lot more Godfather music echoing through the Target Center lately), as well as a sense of primacy: he's playing like he knows he's a force, and making Love's responsibility to dominate that much easier. Looks like another blown shot for Darko.

Paul George, Indiana Pacers - While it's hard to really blow up on a team as well-balanced and mundane as the Pacers, George has done his best to make his name ring out. His surgical long-range trigger's given him the confidence to exploit less athletic defenders off the dribble, and while his finishing in traffic and mid-range decision making aren't always as smooth as his perimeter game (including on D), he's shown many flashes of greatness this year and will only get better with more, well, as the rappers call it, "swag".

DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers - There's a valid but finite argument to made about a guy's candidacy for this award when his numbers are up across the board and he's second in the League in blocks and FG%. Jordan's improvement this season goes far beyond the numbers and delves into his role as the backbone of, let's call a spade a spade, an awful defensive unit. Sure, Chris Paul's as good an on-the-ball defender as you'll find in the backcourt, but behind him? Mo Williams plays defense like Lebron plays 4th quarters. Caron Butler's clearly lost the quickness that made him so effective on D and appears to have gone the way of Metta World Peace. Chauncey was already a step slow and now isn't stepping at all. And Blake? Serious case of Defense ADHD. Jordan's gotta force himself into the role of Tyson Chandler as a 3rd-year player, on a woeful defensive team facing the greatest expectations and hype, with Vinny Del Negro as his coach. And he's doing a pretty good job so far.

I'd also like to add an honorary nomination for the entire Philadelphia 76ers roster; although I can't find the gumption to nominate a single player (what, is Spencer Hawes finally growing a pair really that impressive?), they're vastly improved as a unit and playing above the sum of their parts by such a wide margin over anyone that it needs its own footnote. They made no significant roster changes, just gave a good coach another season to continue developing their young talent, worked hard on their games, and made the adjustments they needed to win together. They embody everything this award does, and that they've done it as an entire team makes it all the more impressive.

A few names you might've expected to see here that got the slash; Andrea Bargnani (because he was almost playing above Raptor status, God had to smite him), James Harden (as well as he's playing he kinda crashed his own MIP party too hard last spring), Jeff Teague (ditto), Jeremy Lin (because one week's not enough, even though I'm sure the Knicks' backcourt sucks enough for him to keep stylin' on 'em), and DeMarcus Cousins (when you spend an entire year hearing "oh, he's worth the headaches" you kinda just expect him to play well).

That's all for PED Watch '12. I'll be back in a few days to take some time off the poker grind and drop a live game blog (haven't figured out which one yet). I've been meaning to do one for awhile, just gets kinda overwhelming balancing several tournaments with the quad-game view on League Pass Broadband (#seizures). Anyways, til then, peace.