Showing posts with label Utah Jazz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Utah Jazz. Show all posts

Friday, May 5, 2017

Playoff Hot Takes!

As we meander towards what looks like an increasingly inevitable Warriors-Cavs rubber match, the playoffs have been developing somewhat predictably:

- The Jazz pulled off the only first-round upset
- Russell Westbrook Westbrook'd himself out in the first round
- The Raptors are playing inconsistently
- Gregg Popovich is the adjustment master
- The Celtics and Wizards might kill each other before the series is decided
- Rob Hennigan got fired
- As expected, a team looks unbeatable in each conference

Despite its seemingly predestined result, there are still a few noteworthy things developing in these playoffs - a few random thoughts:

The Clippers Are Cursed


It just seems unfair at this point.

Years upon years of trash basketball; the franchise run in reprehensible manner by a notorious bigot. When they drafted a franchise guy in Blake Griffin, and were gifted Chris Paul (I use that term literally), there was finally reason to hope for this team. A few years later they ousted Donald Sterling and brought in a coach with a championship pedigree; the pieces were falling into place.

Little did the Clippers know, they were just setting themselves up for disappointment in larger moments. The franchise is still yet to make its first West Finals, pulling an incomprehensible meltdown the one time they seemed headed there. A combination of injuries and indifference have betrayed them annually, not to mention that GM Doc Rivers is nowhere near the same level as Coach Doc Rivers.

LAC heads into what is likely the most crucial offseason in the NBA. The writing seems to be on the wall in bold font that this roster core has run its course. Not only is their own fate in serious flux, but the potential repercussions - a departure of Paul, Griffin or JJ Redick - could alter the league's power balance, perhaps significantly.

So Is This Jazz Team
Not that they were beating the Warriors anyway, but was it too much for Utah to ask that they gauge their playoff ceiling at full strength? Obviously yes. After another injury-riddled regular season, they lost both Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward briefly in the first round, and now George Hill against Golden State.

If Hayward bolts this summer (something that very well could happen), we'll be forced to wonder if this team's accomplishments at anywhere near normal health would've been too much to walk away from.

Only Playoff Rondo Can Stop Playoff Rondo

Raise your hand if, at any point in the past three years, you thought that Rajon Rondo's absence could swing a playoff series.

It's no coincidence that the Bulls nosedove as soon as he broke his thumb, unable to soul-read Brad Stevens any longer. After a regular season that bordered on absurdity at times, Chicago is left with a very big playoff "What If", potentially joining a small handful of teams to pull off the 8 vs 1 upset.

Of course Rondo's injury perhaps has given way to other greatness:


Isaiah Thomas is a Superhero
There's really no other way to describe the guy. First off, he's 5-foot-fucking-9, a half-inch shorter than the average american male. Being that small and challenging the World's tallest athletes as unfettered as he does is heroic in its own right.

But more to the point, the guy transcended an unspeakable personal tragedy, got his mouth demolished, and then dropped a historic game that stands out among Boston's historic array of historic games.

While he mourned, a sad number of people inappropriately critiqued his decision to play; to stick by a team that would surely be burnt toast without him. His response has been pure 🔥🔥🔥.

Dwane Casey's Glue Factory Grade
I've been of the not-so-small school for Casey's replacement since the Wizards full-palm slapped Toronto in 2015's first round. Since then, he's oscillated between Coach of the Year contender and thin-ice scrutiny magnet, seemingly doing just enough to not get himself fired.

Yes, the Raptors made the Eastern Conference Finals last year, but they really didn't win two series insofar as Indiana and Miami respectively, lost them. Their odds of returning there seem close to nil after Cleveland drop-kicked them in two straight games; Casey bringing panicked rotations and a seemingly unprepared team.

Casey is what he is: a good regular season coach. Toronto has proven themselves a good regular season team. If they're going to topple LeBron anytime soon - difficult as that may currently seem - they'll need someone else putting the pieces in play. The Raptors just too often seem to be performing below the sum of their parts. They have a good roster with a variety of looks, but Casey isn't great with lineups, or consistently getting the best from his guys - two playoff must-haves.

Kyle Lowry and Demar DeRozan seemingly never play well in the same playoff game. Patrick Patterson is misused. In a league where teams like Golden State, Houston and *cough* Cleveland are succeeding by spacing the floor and moving the ball, the Raptors ran a clogged offensive set and ranked dead last in assists per game this year.

It took the entire internet telling Casey to play Norman Powell against Milkwaukee for him to do so. It marked not only the turning point of that series, but the first time Casey hadn't been outcoached by his opponent in the playoffs. He promptly returned Powell to the bench vs Cleveland, and the same process occurred.

It won't be enough this time, a fitting metaphor for his time on Toronto's bench.

The Switch Has Flipped
Despite Casey's flaws as a coach, it's slightly unfair when you're pitted against a team dropping 119 ppg, while shooting 50% from beyond the arc.

Even through their defensive meltdown over the past few months, it seemed mostly as a "when" not "if" matter that the Cavs would channel a higher level and begin completely bushwhacking their way through the East. After a disconcerting Indiana series that easily could've gone six games, they've made the Raptors look like the Toon Squad's first half vs. the Monstars.

Small sample size be damned, the Cavs look like they've snapped out of it.


RIP GNG

As a Grizzlies fan, watching the first round was painfully bittersweet. 

The Spurs had swept Memphis in both of their last two playoff meetings; this one seemed destined for a third when Grindfather Tony Allen went down. But after "Take That For Data" went viral, Memphis put up the gulliest of fights, taking two from the Spurs, including an overtime thriller in what was likely Kawhi Leonard's best game ever. 


At the same time, it was merely a spirited final effort from a dying beast. The rugged, physical, underdogging Grit N Grind era that defined the Grizzlies through their rise to NBA prominence (endearing them deeply to the blue-collar city of Memphis) is dying out. Fiz Markee throwing Zach Randolph back into the starting lineup for one last run was a fitting touch. 


The truth is Memphis is too old, too unathletic, too shallow, and can't shoot well enough. They have holes fill, but they're financially strained after lighting $94 million on fire in giving it to Chandler Parsons. They'd ideally have younger, cheaper players waiting in the wings, but it's unclear if any of their prospects beyond JaMychal Green and perhaps James Ennis are ready for bigger roles. 


Roster changes seem almost imminent, and whether the tweaks are minor or major, they seem likely to be a shift away from Grit N Grind as the Grizzlies try and survive a changing climate. So a toast to GNG, it was a fun ride. 

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 2: The West

With the East Preview of out the way, it's time to shift scenery over the Wild Wild West, which, in contrast to its reputation, doesn't look all that wild anymore.

Time was, the entire conference was a stacked bloodbath of potential contenders, with upset potential throughout the playoffs. Now the West's depth has withered like a sun-dried tomato, leaving few established threats and a very distinct caste hierarchy:

The Warriors are unquestionably the conference's best team. Only the Spurs and Clippers have any hope of nabbing the 2nd seed, and beneath them just the Jazz, Grizzlies and Blazers project safely as playoff teams. After that, it's a murky quagmire of on-the-fly rebuilds, precocious upstarts, and identity crises.

While the West's bottom-feeders still have marginally brighter collective futures than their East counterparts, the parity between conferences seems to be inching back towards an equilibrium. How does it all stack up? Let's dive in:

LOTTERY LOCKS:

15. Los Angeles Lakers

After a few years of wayward purgatory at the end of Kobe's career, the Lakers can at least begin to steer themselves in the right direction. While they're free of Bryant's lifetime achievement salary and have a potential future core in the Russell-Ingram-Randle triad, they're still at least a season away from beginning their ascent.

In the meantime they're at least decent fodder for jokes about Timofey Mozgov's contract, the Russell/Nick Young dynamic, and how long it will take Luol Deng to regret signing here.

14. Sacramento Kings
xTo nobody's surprise, the Kings are yet again a mess heading into this year. Instead of building around All-Star DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento seems more likely to trade him, with 1/3 of their roster now centers, and Cousins in near-constant malaise when the franchise does dumb shit like this, and this.

Even with Boogie, the Kings are likely lotto-fodder, but with both he and Rudy Gay swirling around in trade rumors, there could be a total bottom-out on the way in Sac-Town. Hopefully they use the upcoming lottery pick more wisely.

12. New Orleans Pelicans
xNot a wicked franchise arc for the Pels right now. Their pseudo-attempt at Win Now Mode topped out at the 8-seed, and now they're left with an ambiguous bottom-rung roster.

Anthony Davis is obviously awesome, but becoming somewhat of a lock to miss ~15 games every year. Jrue Holiday's indefinite absence leaves their point guard situation (an E'Twaun Moore/Norris Cole/Langston Galloway smorgasbord) in heavy flux. The Pels employ three terrible centers, are relying on a few guys literally playing for their careers, and have the Solomon Hill contract to answer for. Don't expect it to happen this year.

13. Phoenix Suns


The Suns' backcourt is pretty stacked. Shifting Brandon Knight to the bench is a natural adjustment that will allow him to see minutes at both guard spots against bench units he'll completely torch.

The frontcourt however remains a mystery, but has breakout potential. Alex Len's infuriating inconsistency should benefit from a year of health, while Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss look like impact rookies. Either way there will be growing pains, and not much stock in a playoff run for another season at least.

11. Denver Nuggets

Denver's a tough team to peg this year. Heavy on mid-level assets, they've been involved in rumored blockbusters for years, but have never managed to work out a deal for a star with their myriad Kenneth Faried packages.

That could change this year, with Jusuf Nurkic very expendable, up-and-comers Will Barton and Gary Harris showing out (with lotto pick Jamal Murray waiting in the wings), and Danilo Gallinari coming off a career year if a Denver finds someone willing to gamble on his health. Really their only untouchable is Nikola Jokic, which leaves them open to many possibilities.

This roster could look very different even a couple months from now, but even as constructed, they have a balanced attack of good-to-elite shooters surrounding one of the league's best young big men. They project as a below-average defensive unit (hence why they're here) but Denver should be at worst a fun League Pass watch.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

10. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs' long string of shitty free agency luck kept spooling this summer when they settled for maxing out Harrison Barnes in perhaps the summer's most  egregious money-bonfire. Swiping Andrew Bogut from the Warriors' Durant Sale was a pleasant surprise (marking the first time the Mavs' summer center plans didn't get fucked over), but likely won't be enough to keep their playoff streak alive.

The Mavs have depth issues across the board, and will be able to rely less and less on Dirk Nowitzki's German-engineered longevity. Their fate lies in the hands of several past-their-prime guys most of whom have spotty health records. Unless Harrison Barnes is worth every dollar (and the safe bet is that he isn't), Dallas will be facing a transition very soon.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

Welcome to Team Next. Now show-run by an elite basketball mind, and with the NBA's best stable of young talent, the Wolves are primed for a major leap this year.

Having Tom Thibodeau calling the shots instead of glorified assistant Sam Mitchell will mean all the difference in the World, especially to a young troupe of athletic legs with lots to learn and stamina to keep up with Thibs' rigor.

Most of their roster has upside to realize, Karl-Anthony Towns is an MVP-in-waiting, and Kris Dunn looks like arguably this year's most impactful rookie. Even just natural growth and continuity would hugely benefit these guys, but such a significant coaching upgrade will be like an HGH boost. They're doubtful to actually crack the playoffs, but don't expect them to be far off.

8. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are going to be an awesome League Pass team this year. Mike D'Antoni and a noticeable shooting upgrade are going to usher in a new era of high-paced :07 Seconds or Less offensive artistry.

Houston will rack up points, which is good, because they couldn't defend a parked Vespa. They have leaks everywhere on D, starting two minus defenders (Nene, Eric Gordon) and two abhorrently bad ones (Ryan Anderson, and perennial YouTube legend James Harden). With all the easy paths to the hoop, their only rim protector (Clint Capela) has awareness and positioning issues. Plus their best defender (Patrick Beverly) is missing the season's first 6 weeks.

Harden's new purely-cosmetic point guard designation will be plentiful with so much spacing around him, but Anderson, Gordon and Trevor Ariza aren't spreed demons; teams with long, switchable perimeter D (and there's more of them every year) could force turnovers and contested shots easily.

7. Oklahoma City Thunder

So ya, Kevin Durant's obviously gone. That sucks. But Russell Westbrook didn't bolt, and he's about to put on a Man On Fire act unlike any we've seen. That alone should carry OKC to the playoffs, in a West middle tier that suddenly isn't as fearsome anymore.

While Westbrook is one-man instant offense, the Thunder's spacing looks very weird, with little outside shooting and a Kanter/Adams post combo with maybe 6-8 feet of range. OKC is also depressingly thin at the 3 and 4, making Durant's absence all the more noticeable. Vic Oladipo will benefit nicely from Westbrook sucking defenses in like a Dyson - routinely creating open looks than he ever would've had in Orlando - but the Thunder are one of the NBA's ideal lane-clogging targets for opposing D.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES:

6. Portland Trailblazers

Portland shocked the NBA last year with an unlikely ascent into the West playoffs after losing five of their six best players over the summer of 2015. While there's no denying they blew away expectations as a team, the Blazers' results definitely benefited from several teams (namely the two that follow here) dealing with perpetual roster-wide injury. Thus, while they're a better team on paper, they'll have a tough time holding their footing.

That said, the Blazers have lots of potential upside to realize in their weirdly-effective frontcourt, and a more physical, athletic presence after committing grand larceny with the Festus Ezeli deal. Evan Turner is perhaps the NBA's best Swiss Army Knife 6th Man, and should thrive in an identical role and similar system to his Boston gig. Slotting Portland here kinda has to be done, but feels very much like their floor, especially if Allen Crabbe's worth anywhere even in the same area code as his new contract.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

RIP Grit N Grind. With Chandler Parsons' acquisition and Zach Randolph's bench demotion, the Grizz have finally drank the potion and zagged with most of the NBA into a space-and-pace system. Parsons, when healthy, is precisely the kind of player the Grizzlies have longed for, but the "when healthy" part highlights a major concern for Memphis.

As much as Randolph and Tony Allen are still cornerstones of the Grizzlies' culture and identity, their on-court makeup rests heavily on Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Parsons, all of whom are coming off serious injuries with unclear long-term implications. It's supremely unlikely Memphis' roster is hit as hard by injury as last year, but a fully healthy season would be a pleasant surprise.

4. Utah Jazz

The Jazz have "leap" written all over them this year. Where to start? First off they have a stable
chocked full of young talent, any of whom could take large personal strides.

They also now start an average point guard, which would seem like a ho-hum statement if Utah's PG situation wasn't perhaps the single most deficient position in the NBA last year. As a bonus, they return Dante Exum from injury, embarking on one of the league's more intriguing dice-rolls at backup.

Utah, like Memphis, were also hit hard by injuries last year. While Gordon Hayward hasn't gotten them off to a great start they're even less likely than the Grizz to see such misfortune repeat itself. With fewer lineup shifts, Utah's young core will benefit from continuity and collective growth. They also made a couple great on-the-low offseason signings in Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, who provide veteran presence and are still capable on-court contributors.

Add it all up and it's hard to see Utah not leaping at least several spots up this season's West standings.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

One of the NBA's most frustrating teams, the Clippers seem stubbornly bent on maxing out as a 3-seed and getting knocked out in the 2nd round every year. They have the pieces - one of the NBA's best Big-3s surrounded by a passable 2-way supporting cast and coached by one of the best - but the health, stamina, focus and overall desire are all question marks.

You pretty much know what you're getting with this virtually-unchanged roster. If they can string together a healthy season from both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, they could challenge San Antonio for the 2-seed, but overall their potential range is very narrow. Only a serious injury will drop them out the West's top-3, and only a miracle will get them past the Spurs or Warriors in the spring.

2. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs without Tim Duncan is going to be weird; like a peanut butter sandwich without the jam, Meth without Red, or Dany Targaryen without dragons. As the Spurs shift into a new era, they've found themselves a decent placeholder at center in Pau Gasol (albeit one who's far worse defensively).

There are several questions surrounding the Spurs' season, including how much Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have left in the tank, the prospects of trading LaMarcus Aldridge, and how severe Pop's separation anxiety from Duncan will be.

Regardless, the Spurs set a franchise record for wins last year with Duncan in a cameo role, and rock by far the league's most stable system and pedigree. They're as safe a bet for the West's #2 seed as any team in any spot league-wide.

1. Golden State Warriors 
They won 73 games last year, then got Kevin Durant. What else do you want.



Stay tuned for Part 3: The Hardware, dropping any day now....

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Offseason Power Rankings

They came. They saw. They spent.

The 2016 offseason will be remembered for two things:

First, obviously, Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors. Second, and more notably, the floodgates of TV money opening up and unleashing a Biblical wave of contract bloating upon the 2016 free agency class.

Plenty happened this summer, but those dominant themes shook the NBA to its core, rippling far in a summer of transition for an abnormal number of franchises (as you're about to see).

With hundreds of players, teams, moments and metaphysical concepts adrift in the aftermath, there's plenty to sort out. To help keep track of who got the best and worst of things this summer, here are Banter's 2016 Offseason Power Rankings:

Last. Hack-A-Shaq

Second-Last. The BasedGod Curse

Third-Last. North Carolina's All-Star Game Hosting Privileges

704. Brooklyn Nets

When it rains it pours. So soon after they forfeited draft picks for aging veterans, the Nets are awful, unable to rebuild, and attempting to incinerate money in a desperate dash for the Salary Floor. Fully expect them to assume Philly's spot as the NBA's Worst Team.

699. Dion Waiters

685. Vivek Ranadive's Q Rating

662. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Russell Westbrook re-up was significant, and the Ibaka trade was a nice scoop for a player becoming less relevant to the Thunder's success.

But examining OKC's offseason in any other context than "they just lost Kevin Durant for nothing", is kinda missing the forest for the trees.

650. Miami Heat
Gone are Joe Johnson, Luol Deng, and franchise icon Dwyane Wade. In their place are Wayne Ellington, Luke Babbitt and the immortal Dion Waiters. With Chris Bosh's career also in the balance, the Heat are inches away from a total rebuild, while matching one of the summer's most preposterous contract offers.

628. Dave Joerger
Jeorger bolted Memphis after a remarkable performance last year, amid a perhaps-legit beef with upper management. With suitors lined up around the league, he thus promptly committed to the franchise where he's far-and-away most likely to encounter perhaps-legit beef with upper management.

619. Washington Wizards


618. John Wall's Career Arc
As recently as 10 months ago, John Wall was one of the NBA's can't-miss up-and-comers, piloting the East's 'Team to Watch'. The rudderless Wizards have since missed the playoffs, hired Scott Brooks, signed Markieff Morris, and maxed-out one of the most oft-injured players in the league; none of which bode well for Wall returning them to relevancy.

601. Thon Maker 
Got drafted at least 15 spots too high; nobody knows how old he is. Sounds safe.

590. Jeremy Lin 

584. Dwight Howard
After leaving yet another city in a blazing shitstorm of acrimony, Howard lands in his hometown with Al Horford's big shoes to fill and a growing body of evidence suggesting he's fallen off significantly.

With the now-rhetorical questions about his character and desire to win still lingering, the ATL cookin' could be exactly what man-child D12 needs. But if history and circumstance are any indicator, he's just setting himself up for the most painful disappointment yet.

568. My Views on "Make Your Own Dream Team" Memes

541. Milwaukee Bucks
They made a dementia-suggesting draft reach for a guy who may or may not be like 40 years old, and largely whiffed on the shooting their offense badly needs. Unless Mirza Teletovic is somehow the key, this could be another long season in Wisconsin. At least they have Giannis.

526. Atlanta Hawks

499. Chicago Bulls
Mildly unclear what's going on here. Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo are two "name players" that will take the ball out of Jimmy Butler's hands (generally a bad thing) and clog any lineup without a Mirotic/McBuckets forward combo to spread the floor. Sorta defeats the purpose of the Derrick Rose trade.

465. Dallas Mavericks
Whiffed on all their major free agency targets and had to resort to massively overpaying Harrison Barnes. On the bright side, they salvaged Andrew Bogut and faded Dirk's retirement, but still not exactly a win for the Mavs.

443. Charlotte Hornets


411. New Orleans Pelicans

387. Detroit Pistons
BOBAN!! Relevant side-note: The Pistons are currently the second-highest-paid roster in the league at $116 million committed next year.

350. Toronto Raptors
Getting priced out of the Bismack Biyombo sweepstakes was a painful inevitability for the Raptors, one they tried to remedy by drafting a guy who apparently can't dunk in the lottery. Biz was one of the NBA's more underrated players before his postseason explosion, and a big hole to patch in their defense.

The DeRozan re-signing is a strong indicator for the Raps (and Canadian basketball in general). Despite Demar's sickening inconsistency in the playoffs, it keeps them competitive. Coming off a summer with some of the World's best coaches on Team USA certainly doesn't hurt him either.

Jared Sullinger gives Toronto a far more competent option than Luis Scola at the four, but combine the Biyombo loss with direct competition improving markedly, and The North will likely have a tougher run at an East Finals repeat.

322. New York Knicks

The Knicks' offseason has been much-trumpeted in many realms of the Internet, but for me it's mainly a wash. Cast into Win-Now Mode by Melo's ticking clock, they've dumped a whole lot of money and hope into two guys - Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah - who've each been paltry shells of their past selves for at least two years. In Rose, they've inherited the only deal signed in 2012 that could possibly suck under the current cap.

D-Rose and Melo's ball-dominance will be an interesting mesh, and even a fully healthy season from Rose and/or Noah would be a mild surprise. Courtney Lee is a good two-way guard and Brandon Jennings will give life to an offense-dormant 2nd unit, but the Knicks' likely fate is still a bottom-tier playoff team. A total sophomore explosion from the Porzingod might be their best chance at a real leap.

302. San Antonio Spurs
Tim Duncan's absence will be a strange concept to absorb; he was the San Antonio Spurs (at least on-court; #Pop) for damn near two decades. There are far worse replacements than Pau Gasol, but the Spurs' bid for West supremacy got dealt a pretty severe blow by a certain free agent. Leading us to...

270. Kevin Durant's Legacy

So as you may or may not have heard, Kevin Durant joined the Golden State Warriors this summer in a decision that loomed above the NBA for months and still shocked everyone out of sheer magnitude. It also created a vicious dichotomy for KD in the Court of Public Opinion; dividing those who harp he took the easy way out, and those who insist he made the best choice for his "legacy".

The reality to a large degree is that Durant did both.

He's put himself in remarkably good position to win multiple titles, and though he's unlikely to snag another MVP, he's right to act in the interest of rings if he wants to be remembered among the all-time greats. And he absolutely does.

Durant saw first hand just how difficult winning a title in a small market is. OKC struck a series of jackpot draft picks unlike any team in recent memory, and still, year after year, ran into either an untimely injury or a historic team. He's hedged his bets accordingly.

But in the process he's set professional basketball in Oklahoma City back a good decade. He's not only leaving a proud franchise he basically birthed from an ugly Seattle exit, but doing so after they came within God inheriting Klay Thompson's body of making the Finals. For the team that beat them.

He's sealed his Thunder's fate among the NBA's all-time 'What If' teams, and probably created a greater philosophical inquiry of his (likely) rings than anyone before him.

245. Phoenix Suns

230. Portland Trailblazers

209. Houston Rockets 

Dwight Howard's departure has to be seen as a net plus. Many metrics pointed to the Rockets being better without him last year, and his pseudo-jovial petulance is a detriment to any team's chemistry.

Meanwhile, they picked up a couple former Pelicans who (when healthy) provide great spacing for James Harden's free-throw forays to the paint. Moreyball may have overpaid for Ryan Anderson, but got reasonable value on Eric Gordon, two guys who fit his system well.

184. Draymond Green's Snapchat Account
Became a powerful source of memes, great parodies and Team USA bonding this summer, if only through unwittingly showing his penis to millions of people.

168. Austin Rivers' Contract
While he continues to be given a healthy leash by having dad as both coach and GM, it says a lot about the state of the NBA offseason that Rivers' 3-year/$35 million deal doesn't seem that ridiculous.

145. Los Angeles Lakers 
As the Lakers' heavy rebuild hits Defcon 2 with the clock whittling away on Jimmy Buss, they've overall had a strong few months. LA's Other Team signed good deals (Luol Deng, Jordan Clarkson) and bad ones (Timofey Mozgov, Yi Jianlian for some reason), but overall take a win on the offseason.

Buss is still a dog to hit his lofty deadline, but the Lakers are now freed from Kobe's oppressive contract, and have a player they can possibly build around in Brandon Ingram. They'll have a decent outlook once someone smarter than Jimmy is spending the money.

115. Memphis Grizzlies

Keeping Mike Conley is massive, and speaks to the loyalty bred from the Grizzlies' culture. And also perhaps that Conley's max under the new cap made him (before LeBron's new deal) the highest-paid player ever.

Gasp-worthy as that may be, it was a victory for the Grizzlies (and small-market franchises) that saved them from a total rebuild in Marc Gasol's prime. It also came as a morality boost after a season in which legions of injuries, and concerns about Robert Pera's ownership style haunted #GNG.

But Memphis also doubled-down and maxed-out Chandler Parsons. While the debate about that expenditure's legitimacy is itself legitimate, Memphis is defiantly refusing to quit. Sure they have virtually no chance of winning a title and will max-out as a 3/4-seed, but they're playing it to the bone. They're the anti-tankers; a refreshing sight in today's NBA.

89. Orlando Magic
So their frontcourt's a little crowded. Adding Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo (more on him in a moment) to the Vucevic/Gordon combo gives Orlando considerable size, depth and the rim protection they've sorely lacked the past few seasons.

The question thus becomes whether the trigger-happy Rob Hennigan is just stockpiling assets for another deal, or actually plans on making this seemingly over-sized rotation work.

71. Philadelphia 76ers
Things are finally, kind of, coming to together for #TheProcess - if only Sam Hinkie were still around to see it:

Philly netted the #1 pick, managed to draft a guy who isn't a center, have an apparently-healthy Joel Embiid, and maintained their mountains of cap room. In fact, the Sixers' biggest concern at this point will be hitting the league's $84 million salary floor next year.

Better yet, with the Nets in utter disarray and no means to better themselves, the Sixers can finally be freed of stigmatization as the NBA's resident eyesore.


63. Joel Embiid

Continues to kill social media, and actually appeared on film playing basketball for the first time in several years.

49. Kent Bazemore
Couldn't have found himself in a better spot, hosting his coming out party over the biggest Contract Year in history, at a time when 3-and-D swingmen are a prime asset in a wing-deprived market.

Bazemore made off huge this summer for a guy who enthusiastically warmed the Warriors' bench 20 months ago, no two ways about it. But of the many sketchy contracts free agents were gifted with this summer, his potential to blossom might be the most realistic.

34. John Leuer
I mean sure, what the hell! 4 years, $42 million! Why not!

29. Solomon Hill

26. The Cleveland Cavaliers
They are the champs and everything, but Golden State just made a power move on them unlike any we've ever seen.

25. Pau Gasol

Getting out of Chicago was enough but landing with the Spurs makes Pau a large winner.


24. DeMarcus Cousins' Trade Odds

The writing has to be on the wall here, with Cousins perpetually perturbed, and the Kings acquiring like 50 centers under an owner who can do literally anything.

The issues of Cousins' petulant demeanor are well-chronicled, but the Nuggets should just ante up, re-unite DMC with Mike Malone, and reap the ensuing benefits.

23. Rasheed Wallace
Everyone knew Dame Lillard would spit nice, but the gully bars that Sheed laid down on the #SoFarGoneChallenge (while driving no less) were one of the summer's best videos.

22. Tristan Thompson
For doing maybe the most Canadian thing ever.

21. Carmelo Anthony
While his team's still not competing for that ever-elusive Finals trip, Melo might've on-the-low sealed his Hall of Fame bid this summer as the first man ever to win three Olympic golds in basketball.

20. Joakim Noah
Had the last two years of his career conveniently ignored by the Knicks during contract offers.

19. Ryan Anderson
He'll fit well in Houston, and 4 yrs/$80 million is very generous for a less-than-healthy one-way gunner whose best years are perhaps behind him.

18. Frank Vogel

17. Kris Dunn


16. Indiana Pacers


Lots of people hated the Vogel departure, despite his inconclusive results with Indiana. He presided
over Pacers teams that both massively over and underachieved, with a clear hallmark of stout defense and offensive deficiency. A Larry Bird team could only suck at scoring for so long.

Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson and Thad Young are all offensive upgrades over their predecessors, and Nate McMillian was likely a good fit as a Vogel replacement. Unless the Pacers' defense completely crumbles without George and Solomon Hill, they'll climb the East standings.

15. Chandler Parsons

14. Utah Jazz
One of the offseason's multi-way winners. They finally found a starting point guard in George Hill; one who won't command the ball too much or be Trey Burke. This still-young squad also benefits from a year of experience, continuity, and one can hope better health.

Count circumstance among the Jazz's fortunes too. With the West in heavy flux below the top-3, Utah could make serious strides up the playoff bracket. Quin Snyder for Coach of the Year; you heard it here first.

13. Ian Mahinmi

12. Pre-Existing Kevin Durant Championship Bets

11. 
The Summer of JR



10. Bismack Biyombo

Five months ago, Bismack Biyombo was a defensive specialist and capable backup, but a limited offensive game had kept him from seeing heavy minutes. He made $3 million last year.

His impact on the Raptors' shaky second-unit defense was one of their brightest spots this season; one that culminated in the most important playoff run they'd ever embarked on. It was there that Jonas Valanciunas was sidelined, and Biyombo vaulted from on-the-low-bench stud to maybe the breakout player of the 2016 Playoffs. His sublime glass-waxing, elite rim protection and impact energy plays were one of the Raptors' few consistent sparks.

While Biz might've already been in line for a slight raise, his value thus skyrocketed - to 4 yrs/$70 million - due to a very timely injury. Biyombo may have just financially benefited more from a teammate's sidelining than any player in history. Hope he's buying Jonas a car or something.

9. Russell Westbrook

While acting in self-interest and getting the most money, Westbrook is now an Oklahoma folk hero for re-upping after Durant bolted. He also has the team to himself now. While his title odds took a massive hit, he can make perhaps the closest run at Oscar Robertson's triple-double-season mark we've seen yet.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sometimes everything just falls into place for a franchise. Take Minnesota, where the often-frail Wolves have landed back-to-back #1 picks, one of whom is a star in the making, the other is already perhaps the single most valuable long-term asset in the NBA.

With the last two Rookies of the Year in tow, the Wolves now have a serious shot at a third with Kris Dunn, making former PG prodigy Ricky Rubio - their highest-paid player - expendable. Minnesota can now potentially clear even more cap space for the future by dealing Pretty Ricky.

Then of course there's the bench upgrade from Sam Mitchell to Tom Thibodeau, which is like replacing a Hungry Man Salisbury Steak with wagyu ribeye. For a team with such young talent, Thibs will be a great source of knowledge, discipline, experience, and most notably - work ethic.

Already League Pass heavyweights, the Wolves only built upon perhaps the league's brightest future.

7. Timofey Mozgov, Allen Crabbe & Tyler Johnson


There will a be an ESPN 30-for-30 made someday about this year's NBA Offseason. About the oceans of money that were set ablaze in a perfect storm of salary influx and a shallow free agency class. Among the deals of particular note that will be highlighted:

Timofey Mozgov, the once-sought low-post brute who regressed all season, eventually falling completely out of the Cavs' rotation. He now makes $16 million/year, or more than any player in the NHL.

Allen Crabbe, the potential breakout 3-and-D wing whom the Nets inked to a restricted 4-year $74 millon script. Portland swallowed the pill and matched. The Blazers now cutting $18.5 million to a backup wing with career averages of 7/2/1 has helped balloon their payroll to a league-high $119 million.

And Tyler Johnson; inconsistent bench guard, also inked by the Nets to a literally vomit-inducing 4-years, $50 million. Unshaken by the Nets' manic spending spree, Pat Riley opened the coffers and matched the back-loaded deal, which gives Johnson a combined $38.5 million over its final two seasons.

Though the potential to redeem these whale contracts exists, these guys are already being paid beyond the apex of their realistic projections. Huge offseason winners.

6. Mike Conley
Much love as I have for Iron Mike, the fact that a 0-time All-Star spent a brief moment as the highest-paid player in NBA history is simply incredible.

5. Boston Celtics
Landing Al Horford was a significant coup for this precocious bunch of scrappers, consolidating their talent and solving their longtime search for a starting center. More significantly, they managed to do it without going over the cap or giving up any of their asset horde, leaving Danny Ainge plenty of ammo to make another blockbuster move. The Celtics are probably already favorites to nab the East's #2 seed.

4. Hassan Whiteside
Was playing in Lebanon two years ago. Just signed a $98 million contract, and could be a franchise cornerstone with the Wade Era now over.


3. LeBron James

LeBron not only got to revel in the spotlight of the greatest Finals performance ever, but gave himself a record contract. The Warriors have dealt a major blow to his Cavs' repeat odds, but this summer was LeBron's Moment in a career littered with so many LeBron Moments.

His career path - "legacy" if you will - isn't hurt that much by the Durant signing either way. If the Warriors beat him in the Finals rubber-match only injury can derail, they had to assemble arguably the greatest team ever to do so. If LeBron somehow emerges from this with another ring though, that's serious G.O.A.T material.

2. Harrison Barnes

I thought the notion of giving Barnes a max deal was incredulous before he came out and projectile vomited all over the Warriors' failed title defense; the kind of gaffe that normally costs a player millions in a contract year.

Mark Cuban knows things about investments that I don't, but the metrics suggest Barnes is overrated as is without the added expectation amid much worse surroundings. Even in an offseason of financial anarchy, how Barnes made off with this much money is unsustainable and sickening.

1. Golden State Warriors
It's still kind of hard to fathom. A team winning 73 games one year, then acquiring likely the 3rd-best player in the NBA for fifteen cents on the dollar.

The Warriors are going to be a terrifying offensive machine that will rack up the easiest buckets we've ever seen against any non-elite defense. It's going to be insulting how routine they'll make it look.


The Death Lineup just became exponentially scarier, with Durant's lethal scoring replacing Barnes' inconsistent shooting, and his length enabling him to cover even more space and bigger bodies on D. Getting Zaza Pachulia on the cheap was great Bogut insurance; with veterans riding them in every-trendy ring hunts (David West really making Ray Allen eat his words) they can fill out a bench to complement the best 7-man rotation ever.

Dub Nation is now very short on rim protection, but that seems trivial in the scope of what's just happened. This team is going to be fucking impossible to defend. It's supremely unlikely they go for a new wins record after last year's playoff semi-burnout, but we're about to witness devastation on a mass level.

Friday, October 23, 2015

Banter's 2015-16 NBA Preview: Part II - The West


We got the (L)East out of the way, now time to move on to the Bestern Conference:

15- Portland Trailblazers
There's bad offseasons, and then there's what happened to the Blazers this summer, which ranks somewhere between the Ashley Madison hack and Fantastic 4 among 2015's biggest mishaps. Losing five of your six best players in two weeks is something an NBA team rarely has to cope with, but the Blazers got dealt a "Rebuild" card about as swiftly as can be done.

Damian Lillard will be on the warpath, and that itself might be enough to win Portland a few games. They have the faint potential to form a passable nucleus of the young talent they've scrapped together, but guys like CJ McCollum and (especially) Noah Vonleh are unproven and won't keep Portland from freefalling this year.

14- Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are just a complete nightmare right now. Having Lou Williams, Nick Young and Kobe on the same roster is like playing Hungry Hungry Hippos with one ball. Their opening night starting frontcourt are two of the most washed "name" players in the NBA. Ron Artest is on their team again.

I guess it's the Lakers, so the season prognosis could easily include a Brandon Bass/Nicki Minaj TMZ sex scandal, Jordan Clarkson assault arrest, or rehab for Ryan Kelly. At least all indications are that D'Angelo Russell is the truth, and Julius Randle will (let's hope) play more this year, which saves the Lakers from being totally forsaken.

13- Minnesota Timberwolves

There's plenty to be excited about for Minnesota fans - the most since Kevin Garnett first burst onto the scene. They've got an enviable troupe of young upstarts, led by back-to-back #1 picks, at least one of whom appears to be a home run in the making. But there will definitely be growing pains, almost inevitably a Ricky Rubio injury to weather, and Flip Saunders' difficult cancer battle looming over the season.

Nik Pekovic and Kevin Martin linger as lame-duck cap-cloggers (though Martin's current deal is an absolute steal for Minny), while the Wolves develop some kind of an identity from their youth movement. They could be a couple spots better if Wiggins leaps and Karl Towns justifies the hype, but they're a few years short of becoming a force in a conference this deep.

12- Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have been the NBA's official Team Purgatory for years now. Stuck somewhere in that awkward phase between contending and rebuilding, they seem stubbornly bent on pushing against the major championship-or-bust trend sweeping the league.

This year should be no exception; don't count on Denver to challenge for either the playoffs or best lottery odds, as they race to the lower-tier of mediocrity. Losing their best player certainly won't help, as Ty Lawson's alcohol antics drove him in a swerving Benz out of town. As such, the Nuggets will be leaning heavily on highly-touted rookie Emmanel Mudiay to get touches for their shooters (Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler) and create for their offensively-limited bigs (JJ Hickson, Kenneth Faried). Mudiay has the makings of a strong pro, but no doubt will be a downgrade at first from Lawson's lethal slash-and-kick filleting. The Nuggets should get a strong season from Gallo, after he went ape-shit down the stretch last year and appears to be every bit healthy.

The presence of Mike Malone will definitely benefit this squad though; a great coach (anyone who breaks through with DeMarcus Cousins deserves a 30 for 30) who got waxed in brutally comical fashion in Sacramento. Good to see him back on the sidelines, but this team needs far more than just a strong coach in their long-term plot.


11- Sacramento Kings

This season's Sacramento Kings have the potential to be one the most fascinating teams in NBA
history.

They are Russian Roulette in the form of a professional sports franchise; so many possible outcomes - not many of them good. We could start with George Karl and the aforementioned DeMarcus Cousins; a union of old-school coach and volatile superstar that (to the surprise of absolutely nobody) is already being massaged in the media. Then add in Rajon Rondo, the petulant would-be star who wore out his welcome with two teams in the past 9 months and is playing very much for himself this season.

Those two variables alone are enough to cause intrigue, but then consider that Vivek Ranadive -probably the most unpredictable owner in the NBA - is calling the shots, Getcha popcorn.

10- Dallas Mavericks
So this wasn't exactly a good offseason for Mark Cuban and the Mavs.

Tyson Chandler is gone. So is Monta Ellis. As too is DeAndre Jordan (too soon?), and even an en-vogue asset like Al-Farouq Aminu. The players Dallas is counting on to fill the void are a rag-tag bunch of has-beens (Sam Dalembert, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, etc), a solid 3rd big (Zaza Pachulia) and the immortal JaVale McGee. Their best acquisition - and most costly gamble - just came off achilles surgery. Their lone star (it is Texas) is 37 years old. These are facts.

Dallas rode Nowitzki to a truly outstanding run over the past 15 years, but this might be the end of the line for a team that's missed the playoffs just once since 2000.

9- Phoenix Suns
It was a (politely put) interesting summer in Phoenix; one marked by a series of Markieff Morris hissy-fits and the quizzical decision to ink Tyson Chandler. Chandler's an elite defender and efficient scorer - definitely a guy you want on your team - but his arrival stymies the burgeoning Alex Len, and reeks of a "contend now" mentality; something the Suns are nowhere near.

Though Morris is putting up the "All is Good" front with the media, Ryan McDonough might be strongarmed into trading him sub-value as he was with Goran Dragic last February. Phoenix's backcourt is dangerous (especially against unathletic guards), but they have a lot of question marks on the wing and at the four (which is basically a wing position now anyway). If Mirza Teletovic fits well and Morris avoids doing Morris things, Phoenix could challenge for the playoffs, but count on this one turning out like their last two efforts.

8- Utah Jazz
If there's a walking argument for the value of a good rim protector, it's Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz. Last season, the Jazz were a lottery-bound defensive flounder with Enes Kanter - a porous defender - playing most of their center minutes.

With Gobert's ability demanding a starting spot, and the unhappy Kanter demanding a trade, Utah's play was obvious. They went 19-10 post-trade with the Rude Boi starting, and became one of the NBA's best defensive teams overnight. The Dante Exum injury is an unfortunate wrench in their plans (Trey Burke's not exactly an ideal starting PG), but everything else about this team - from Alec Burks' return, to continued growth from pretty much their whole young lineup (especially the recently-23 Gobert) is trending up.

Dallas and Portland's summers of despair left voids in the exclusive West Playoff Club. With OKC certainly taking one, the Jazz look like a safe bet to nab the last spot.

7- New Orleans Pelicans

Team Brow is on the come-up, but unfortunately for them, the West is more stacked with legit
contenders right now than any conference ever.

This is basically an identical roster to the one the Pelicans closed shop with in early May, but a few things have shifted: 1) they'll (very likely) be healthier than last year, 2) they'll be coached by someone who actually knows what's happening on offense, and most importantly 3) they'll get another year of frightening development from Anthony Davis.

Once unleashed in Alvin Gentry's full-throttle system, Davis is likely to cause the type of devastation normally reserved by violent typhoons for small Pacific islands. Davis - the NBA's PER leader - was just 26th in usage rate last year (behind the likes of Marreese Speights and Ish Smith). You can bet that number will go up significantly, but don't count on the Pelicans to crash the West's VIP party just yet.

6- Memphis Grizzlies
It sucks for me to have to demote my favorite team after they got better this summer (convincing Brandan Wright to sign for as little as he did was a shameless pillage), but such is life in the West these days.

You know what you're getting with Memphis: a gruesomely slow, rugged game; physical harassment from Tony Allen, physical abuse from Zach Randolph, methodically efficient two-way surgery from Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, and fewer team defense leaks than you'll find in pretty much any lineup. Memphis will make you struggle to score, but the question remains if they won't give themselves the same trouble.

Jeff Green failed to put them over the hump offensively last season, and while the bench got grittier this summer (Wright and the always-bout-it Matt Barnes) the Grizzle need shooters, and guys who can contrast the #GNG mentality offensively, in order to get to the next level.

5- Houston Rockets
The Rockets have drawn an unusual amount of on-the-low hate from both pundits and fans who
shame their plain-oatmeal offense, James Harden's alleged flopping, and just about everything Dwight Howard does.

Entangled partly in that sentiment has been Houston's exclusion among the trendy "contenders" heading into '15-'16, even after this team snatched the 2-seed as a walking ICU, then made the West Finals. Adding Ty Lawson was huge (especially given his crisis-sale price tag), giving them another uptempo playmaker who's highly adept at getting into the paint the creating open looks - the maxim Houston's offense thrives upon.

Losing Josh Smith is negligible with Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas both returning healthy; the Rockets can surely count on better continuity this season with fewer bodies in and out of service. It's hard to keep them out of the top four; I feel like I might be selling Clutch City short. But then there's...

4- OKC Thunder

I could probably just write the words "Kevin Durant" here and be done with it, but we'll take a closer look: OKC has a sneakily-deep rotation, offset only slightly by the presence of defensive duds (Enes Kanter) and delusional pseudo-stars (Dion Waiters).

While Kanter is an obvious liability on D, he also shares the paint with arguably the NBA's most feared help defender (Serge Ibaka); a slight deterrent against picking on him too much. DJ Augustin has proven himself a high-energy pocket rocket of a backup PG; one who won't give 2nd units much of a breather when Durant or Russ Westbrook briefly hits the bench. Nick Collison is a crafty vet on a great contract, Steven Adams is a resolute backup big, and Anthony Morrow is about as dangerous a spacing threat as someone not named "Kyle Korver" can be.

Which is to say this team is more than just Durant and Westbrook, though those two on their own could probably carry the squad. Westy's Man on Fire  act will be much tougher to contain with a former MVP sharing the defense's attention, and a coach who can actually draw up plays on the Thunder bench. This could very well be their last shot at a title run with Durant - at the very least they could use a clean bill of health for once.

3- L.A. Clippers
The Clippers' offseason could be described in many ways, but "entertaining" is probably the most accurate way to sum it up. Not only did we get witness the Passion of the DeAndre unfold in real time, but saw the Clippers upgrade their pathetically shallow roster in the most hilarious ways possible.

First is the Paul Pierce/Doc Rivers dynamic, reuniting two infamous Ubuntu veterans who just happen to have two of the highest villain profiles in the NBA right now; they'll feed off each other like vinegar and baking soda. Then there's the Josh Smith signing, tossing a possibly-reformed knucklehead into a delicate chemistry mix (Chris Paul's temper is shorter than Earl Boykins, and this franchise is absolutely feeling the "Win Now" burn). As if Smith weren't enough, they nabbed a never-reformed knucklehead in Lance Stephenson, setting up two certainties: 1) Rivers will fully earn the coaching portion of his salary this year, and 2) Lance/CP3 will be Banter's official Buddy Comedy for the upcoming season.

But see the thing is, unless Stephenson completely implodes (he won't have nearly as much room to wreak havoc as he did in Charlotte), these moves make the Clippers a much more rounded, frightening team. They might finally have the depth around their stars to crack the West, but there are a couple minor issues in their way:

2- San Antonio Spurs
So the Spurs have LaMarcus Aldridge now. That's a thing that happened. Essentially giving up Tiago Splitter (a fine asset, but not a fringe-MVP), RC Buford and Gregg Popvich pulled a coup that forces the whole NBA to take notice that they weren't finished. But these are the Spurs, of course they aren't.

As Aldridge assumes the go-to offensive duty, he'll have reigning DPOY Kawhi Leonard flanking him with omnipresent brilliance and the still-Big 3 of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili settling in as the sickest role-player corps in modern NBA history. The Alamo has just a stupid amount of depth up front, with Boris Diaw, David West, and Matt Bonner also seeing minutes. This is contrasted by the backcourt losses of Cory Joseph and Marco Belinelli, whom the Spurs will amply replace because, well, they're the Spurs.

Leonard and Danny Green are locked up long-term on very thrifty deals, putting San Antonio in great position once their leadership fully recycles and Duncan & Co. retire. But forget the future, this team is going to be a dynamite-spiked wrecking ball this year. Just keep clear of the devastation.

1- Golden State Warriors

Even in what could prove to be the most top-heavy conference in NBA history, you still have to give Golden State the benefit of any doubt. They blitzed the league at a historic level for 82 games, then marched authoritatively to a title. They made no major moves because they didn't have to (essentially turning the book-bloating David Lee into bargain-basement Jason Thompson), and even with the Spurs' jackpot summer, figure to be the better regular season team.

While San Antonio adjusts to their new centrifugal figure and rests their aging stars, the Warriors will benefit from the continuity (<--NBA buzzword alert) and swagger of being an unaltered squad, not to mention the champs. They're deep, and can cause matchup nightmares for just about any type of lineup, making them perfectly suited for the 82-game long haul.

A summer of hearing how the Spurs are now the favorites, and the Dubs somehow "got lucky" (c. Doc Rivers) last spring, has provided a little extra motivation to the title defense. These guys are pissed. And they're more than capable of taking out some frustration.

I'll be wrapping things up with Part III (The Hardware) next Monday, get involved.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Top 9s: The Tank Brigade

Welcome to the Tank Brigade; where the race for professional basketball's worst record is heating up.

Tanking has never been trendier; a shift induced not only by the massive talent pool in next year's Draft, but by a dynamic historical precedent. Not only does it (with very rare exception) take elite talent to win an NBA title - we're talking at least one bonafide Top-10 guy - but with stars aligning in big cities and taking salary cuts to help their teams dodge the cap, it's never been harder for small market/less established teams to land the best players.

The mentality that competing for a low Playoff spot is the League's worst position has never been so prevalent, leading most teams to shoot for the stars, or lie down in the dirt. While the likes of the Thunder and Pacers battle for the Association's best record, there's a more subtle fight in full force. One for the best odds in a gamble to determine a complete gutterball of a season's ultimate worth.

The very worst team stands only a 1 in 4 chance of landing the top pick on a record-based scale, and even a loaded Draft class like the one upon us can have its busts.The Lottery is still very much a gamble. This is degeneracy at its highest stakes; snuffing seasons and making fans wait on a relative dice roll. In a league where owners spent a lockout griping about "competitive parity" just over two years ago.

Some franchises are more or less banking on a lottery miracle, while others have set themselves up nicely for whatever they net in this Draft to join a promising foundation; stockpiling other assets and clearing cap space.

So here are the NBA's Nine worst teams as of today, ranked from worst to first in order of how well they've managed through this whole "Tanking" thing:

9. New York Knicks
Woops.

So this season hasn't been great for the Knicks; the kind that's swiftly gone from alarming, to laughable, to downright tragic.

Their presence here is dubious for any number of reasons, from their Playoff ambitions and gaudy payroll, to the future picks they stupidly dealt, crippling their rebuilding effort. The Knicks will have no first-round pick this season, or in 2016; saved by the Stepien Rule from burying themselves deeper.

They've also traded a slew of second-rounders, to make sage, competitively-priced acquisitions like Andrea Bargnani. This was a total dud of the contract that the Raptors were just praying to unload on some GM who, like most of America, had mostly ignored them and didn't know just how bad Bargs was. Then along comes New York, offering to give them three draft picks, along with cheaper, shorter-term deals, to take him off their hands.

They literally yanked their own safety net before nose-diving down the East standings, and now face an offseason of many questions, with no idea where to begin on an answer.

8. New Orleans Pelicans 
The Pels bought up their own stock prematurely, and currently owning the NBA's second-longest losing streak, are cruising towards an early summer, likely with no redemption in sight.

Like the Knicks, they mortgaged their Lottery equity for current assets, figuring their team to be better and the pick much lower. Sure enough, as soon as you could say "Point Guard Injury Epidemic" and "Tyreke Evans was a waste of money", the Pelicans tilted the scales of the Jrue Holiday deal heavily.

Unless they luck out and land in the top-5, Philly will get the Pels' first-rounder, ironically in exchange for the very player whose absence (along with Ryan Anderson) made this pick become so attractive.

So far, we've learned that Tanking is mostly sub-optimal strategy when you've given away your Draft picks and are among the worst teams by accident.


7. Sacramento Kings
That so much of Sacramento's next season lies in Rudy Gay's $19million player option is a mildly terrifying predicament, especially for a rebuilding team that gave up a bunch of expiring deals for him.

Working in their favor is that Gay has been playing arguably the best ball of his career, able to dominate the rock and shoot with no conscience on a team with low expectations. This might lean him towards putting himself on the market now while his stock's high; locking up another deal before he's dealt to a stricter team ('Rudy Gay's Expiring Contract' would be the most-floated piece in trade rumors next year) and his shot selection becomes an international punchline again.

With Boogie beasting, and a reasonable cap scenario long-term, this could be a solid team in a few years if the pieces come together properly, but so far the movement under new owner Vivek Ranadive has been mostly lateral.

6. Utah Jazz
The Jazz have done an outstanding job of clearing cap room and producing a 2013-14 on-court product that would surely suck enough to get a high Lotto pick.

The problem for them is they may have done it too well.

This team has few attractive pieces, with Enes Kanter, and to a lesser extent Derrick Favors, failing to make much of a leap in their expanded roles, and meshing poorly together as a tandem. Trey Burke will remain, as will Gordon Hayward (for a year, at least) but it's hardly enough to convince the kind of talent Utah's banking on to come spend most of their year in a trendy, must-visit NBA locale like Salt Lake City.

I'm predicting a Jazz offseason that exemplifies why not all cap space is created equal, and leaves them short on the Free Agent Haul.

5. Boston Celtics
The Celtics' season has been somewhat confounding. The two apparent objectives this year were: 1) Trade Rajon Rondo, and 2) Lose as many games as possible. The former didn't happen, and the latter only did after a counter-productively hot start under Brad Stevens.

The good news is that Stevens was an ace hire, and that several Celtics pieces - most notably Jared Sullinger - have seen a spike in value, both to the team and on the trade market. The bad news is that they still have to pay Gerald Wallace $20million over the next two years, and the continuing Rondo uncertainty makes their future very hard to define.

4. L.A. Lakers
The Lakers' range of possibilities for next season is extremely wide:

They currently have over half their cap next year (roughly $35million) invested in two guys who've each played less than ten games this year. That said, the latest round of Steve Nash retirement rumors seem more well-founded than in the past, possibly shaving $10m off the tab.

Since a very large chunk of their roster is off the books this summer, the Lakers (if Nash does hang 'em up) could have safely over $30million in cap space, along with a decent-at-worst Lottery pick.

How all that potential comes together is obviously a tricky variable; TinselTown has always been a favorite destination for big names, but there's no telling just how willing Player X will be to team with Kobe or commit to a rebuild.

With such a large window, the Lakers are sure to come back reloaded, but they only have to rewind their franchise one year to see how throwing a bunch of talent together can be an unmitigated disaster.

3. Milwaukee Bucks
John Hammond is a genius.

I don't say this in any facetious regard; I really think the guy's a mastermind. Last summer, the Bucks were staring an obvious rebuild in the face, with senile owner Herb Kohl demanding that the team stay "competitive" (read: pick in the late Lottery or get swept by Indiana/Miami).

Instead of condemning them to middling mediocrity, Hammond had a plan; he knew his owner was being an idiot, but he didn't want to get himself fired. So he went about his mandate under the appearance of legitimacy, inking deals and making trades that seemed aimed at the short-term, but weren't making Milwaukee any better . He even coerced sports' trendiest website into exaggerating his team's worth in their season preview.

Then when the curtains came up, the Bucks confirmed everyone's suspicions that they couldn't score. At all. Hammond then hired local goons to provoke new-signed defensive backbone Larry Sanders into injuring himself in a drunken nightclub meltdown. As a result, they own the NBA's worst record (/best Lottery odds), two promising prospects in John Henson and Giannis Antetokounmpo (it's his name, get over it), and little long-term financial commitment.

2. Orlando Magic
Few teams made being bad look as easy this season as the Magic, who have a bottom-3 record in the East and plenty going in their favor:

- they have two legitimate foundation pieces (Nik & Vic); they're the only serious tankers who can say that.

- their whole team is bathing in upside; a roster to which they'll add a potential stud in late June

- they have oodles of cap space, and play in Orlando, which between the sunshine, Disney World, and the lack of state income tax, is relatively prime Free Agent real estate


All added up, this should be a pretty quick turnaround for the Magic, which after Dwight Howard hijacked their franchise for 18 months, should come as comfort to their fans.

1. Philadelphia 76ers
THIS is how you suck. The Sixers have by far the largest pot of gold of at the end of this season's shit-rainbow.

First they snaked likely future-All Star Michael Carter-Williams late in last year's Lottery and had him miss a convenient amount of games. They'll get continued growth moving forward from a guy nobody thought would be this good. Then they whittled their payroll down to the bare bones; with somewhere between 17-32million on tap for next year, they'll be the least-constricted team in this summer's spending spree. All the while, losing almost methodically by playing a frenetic pace with a D-League roster.

The plot thickens with the oncoming arrival of potentially game-changing defensive center Nerlens Noel, along with (and here's the best part) not one, but two Lotto picks from the much-ogled 2014 Class. Not only do the 76ers have their own selection, but that of the Pelicans in the highly likely event it lands outside the Top 5.

After the Bynum disaster, the floor fell out beneath the Sixers quickly, but this team has enough going for it beyond this season that they'll likely wind up reaping the greatest spoils of the Tank Brigade.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

"...Aaand here they come down the stretch.."

Now that the regular season marathon's drawing to a close, we can begin seriously licking our chops, knowing that the season's best basketball will soon be upon us. Every game will count as teams furiously jockey for playoff seeding (and, in more mundane cases, lottery balls), leading into an epic battle for basketball's most revered honor. March Madness needn't be mentioned (but shouldn't be forgotten) to deem the coming months as any hoops head's favorites...But let's not get ahead of ourselves here, before the title bout, there's still a couple fights left on the undercard as the quest for the postseason winds down. Here's the tale of the tape:

The Dreamers: These teams will be duking it out for the final playoff spots. The season will end in disappointment for most of them, but, with the exception of one, they should be happy just to be here.

Milwaukee Bucks - Just the fact that they're still in this conversation after losing Micheal Redd and having the League's most gloriously inefficient point guard this year is astounding. Kudos to Scott Skiles for having this muddle of youngsters play above the sum of their parts recently; mixing in John Salmons might serve up playoff appearance.

Memphis Grizzlies - Facing a tough recent schedule - as any team in the West is bound to at some point - the Grizz have slipped back towards .500, showing that although they're much better than we would've given them credit for, they might not be playoff-ready in the deep West. Their remaining schedule's relatively soft, but lottery or not, they recovered from the Iverson debacle quickly and are still on the good end of massive upside.

Houston Rockets - Losing Carl Landry hurt but picking up Kevin Martin and a couple good big men really gave this team exactly what they needed at a fair price. A go-to scorer's a much needed shot in thw arm for what's been a languid Rockets offense, and Martin's surrounded by enough potent help for his defensive deficiencies to be minimalzied. As promising as a playoff run would be, this team's really just waiting on next season, praying that a year of rest will finally get Yao Ming on a healthy track.

Miami Heat - Having once held then safest grip on their playoff seed in the L, Miami's tumbled all the way to the brink of the lottery and is no lock to make the postseason. As the losses pile up, so (inevitably) does Dwyane's frustration as he Wades in the shallow talent around him. He's capable of lifting this team to a first-round exit, but I can't help but think apathy must be setting in.

New Orleans Hornets - They've played surprsingly well without Chris Paul thanks to the recent explosion of rookies Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. It remains to be seen if this talented but inexperienced backcourt can continue this blistering pace all season, but if they can keep the Hornets in the fight long enough for CP3 to get healthy, it might be all they need.

Charlotte Bobcats - Some recent struggles against just about everyone (...except the Cavs...) have cast Charlotte back onto the East lottery scene. I still see them as the most likely of the bottom 3 (Miami and Milwaukee being the others) to squeeze into the playoffs, their recent trade having bolstered a Kate Moss-thin frontcourt. This current lineup's not far from its ceiling, but after years of sucking, mere respectability is welcome in Charlotte.

The Long-Shots: Their postseason ambitions fairly realistic, these squads are battling for a better draw in the faint hope of a first-round upset

Portland Trailblazers - Picking up Marcus Camby was huge for a team that wasn't dressing a 7-footer and starting 52 year-old Juwan Howard at center. Somehow, they weathered several violent attacks from the injury bug and stayed in the playoff chase this long. It's hard to imagine them losing their grip unless Brandon Roy decides to shut down his ailing hamstring, even harder to picture them upsetting the Lakers. That being said, if any team can be satisfied with just a playoff berth, given everything they've been through, it's these guys.

Chicago Bulls - Since their near-implosion in December, the Bulls have been playing some pretty f***ing good basketball, recently having beaten five .500+ teams in a row...on the road...in the West. Their remaining schedule won't be easy, but it's heavy on the United Center - where they're won two thirds of their games this year - and regardless of this season's outcome, they've given their fans reason to be optimistic about next year with more cap space to bait the many marquee free agents this summer.

San Antonio Spurs - Sorry, have to do it. Finally. I know it seems weird seeing San Antonio this far removed from the contender conversation this far into the season, but they've played tired, inconsistent basketball and shown nobody any reason to expect something beyond a first round dismissal. MAYBE they can pull out an upset if their entire roster's at 100%, but that'll be asking a lot. Tim Duncan's been uncannily efficient this year, but even in the postseason, where he'll playing far more than 31 minutes/game, he'll need much more help than he's had this year. The Alamo's been taken. Good riddance.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Not to slight the impressively precocious play of a team nobody asked to be ten games over .500, but the playoff-virgin core of the Zombie Sonics will have a hard time beating a team like Utah or Dallas in seven games. Durant's been unreal, Westbrook's been steadier, Harden's been steadily improving...Hard as it may be just remember they're the youngest team in the League; this is just the beginning.

Toronto Raptors - Playing to their potential for once, the Raps have responded to the preseason hype, ironically thanks in no part to a certain Turk who's been playing like he's living out his Pizza Pizza commercial on the reg. The return of Reggie Evans will be welcomed by a team that's finally embracing the foreign concepts of hustling and defensive toughness, while their two-headed point guard attack has proven potent in recent weeks. If eveything's firing for them, they're the kind of team that could scare a wounded Celtics squad that perenially lets its guard down in early rounds.

Phoenix Suns - Yeah, I dunno why they kept Amar'e either. They're several players they can't afford away from contending and will likely lose him after they're swiftly dismissed from the first round...oh well...here's hoping whatever team lands him will pull of a miracle trade for Chris Paul.

The Dark Horses: These are the underdogs; the teams that will be expected to make noise come playoff time, but will have to knock off a favorite to get a title shot.

Boston Celtics - You don't think so the way they've been playing lately? They're one of A's best teams when healthy, but they haven't been all year. If Garnett and Pierce are still hampered in April, they're screwed; even with a healthy Pierce last year, it took the best basketball of Rajon Rondo's life to get them out of the first round. I'm fully prepared for a complete Big 4 to prove me wrong, but I won't count on Glen Davis, Tony Allen and Fatigued Wallace to do it.

Atlanta Hawks - They've dominated the Celtics this year, but lackluster performances against the Cavs and Magic leave serious doubts about their ability to match up with the East's beasts. Atl definitely took a step forward this year, but it'll take another one to reach the NBA's upper echelon.

Utah Jazz - They've been the West's best team since Christmas, but this team just seems...off. Too much uncertainty enshrouds them: D-Will's questioning front office intentions, Boozer claims he wants to stay but can't be taken at his word, Millsap's being jerked like Jack Link's beef waiting for the minutes he deserves, and Andrei Kirlenko/Mehmet Okur's consistency problems will hurt them when they're playing top-tier teams every game. If they can shake it all off and give the better Lakers some heat, I'll be thoroughly impressed.

The Contenders: For these squads, anything short of a title will be a disappointment. It's not about waiting on free agents, nurturing young talent and 'building a winner'; they've built winners, now it's time to do what they do.

Orlando Magic - The Magic showed very scary glimpses of their May 2009 selves this past weekend against the Cavs. Dwight owned the paint with a nice array of moves early, and when the Cavs keyed their D on him, a floodgate of 3's rained on them from all angles, while a lane-clogging defense reduced Lebron to a streaky jumpshooter, removed from his rhythm. They're another team who's been unhealthy, with injuries plaguing their starting backcourt, but have shown a much better ability to play hurt than the older, thinner Celtics. They're as dangerous as any contender out there.

Denver Nuggets - Why not? Even with Melo and Chauncey hobbled, they've held down the second-best record in the better conference, while Kenyon Martin's enjoyed a renaissance and Ty Lawson's emerged as one of the better steals in a deep draft class. They're an improved defensive team and boast a scary offensive arsenal that few teams are equipped to outgun. At full stregnth, they're at-worst a top-three team in the West.

Cleveland Cavliers - After peeling off the season's longest winning streak with their second-best player in streets, Cleveland acquired a borderline All-Star for at worst, their backup center and at best, absolutely nothing. Jamison's incorporation into the lineup wasn't as "seamless" as Danny Ferry had predicted, but doesn't change the fact that the Cavs, who were already arguably the favorites in the East, improved a lot. They match up better against the Magic than last year, and should have no trouble with any of the East's lesser teams. Of course, the stakes are also higher in Cleveland than anywhere else, so deliverance upon their postseason expectations is vital.

Dallas Mavericks - They might end up coming out the winners of the trade deadline deals; they got EXACTLY what they needed in Haywood and Butler; tough defense, low-block competency, and a more versatile offensive attack. They looked to be firing on all cylinders in the 2nd half against LA, toppling the champs without Caron in a serious statement game. What was already a playoff dark horse now could be a bonafide threat to the throne.

...Which leaves us with the reigning champs, who still have to be called The Favorites; even with Kobe taking his longest injury leave in years, the Lakers maintained their steady cushion on the West's top spot. Aside from the Cavs, they've repeatedly beaten tough opponents and rarely shown the type of champion's complacency that could plague a team this talented. Although there's been recent dissent about Mr. Bryant's itchy trigger finger, but it'll tkae much more than that to disturb the Zen Garden long enough to knock the Lakers off their title course. Believe they'll be playing their best ball in May and, most likely, June; it'll be tough for anyone else to match.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

"He Who Hesitates is Lost"

This year's trade deadline was more exciting than most, with several big names on the move after months of rampant speculation and incessant rumors. That being said, for every move that was made, we saw teams fail to pull the trigger on anticipated deals that could have serious implications over the coming months and seasons. Let's take a look at who didn't make a deadline move, why not, and how seriously it could fuck them over:

- The most surprising move, or lack thereof, was Phoenix deciding not to ship Amar'e Stoudemire to any of the many interested teams. The problem here was that Stoudemire had been held onto for too long; the Suns have been talking about trading him for years and could never make their mind up whether or not to hit the switch on rebuilding mode. This hurt Amar'e's trade value, as every team knew Phoenix was willing to part with him (and needed to, lest they risk losing him for nothing in July), making it impossible to get equal value in return. If the rumored Hickson/Ilgauskas package was truly the best offer they received for an elite big man, then this card was played terribly. Consequently, you can probably pencil the Suns in for a low playoff seed and the worst month of June possible as they clamor to work a sign-and-trade (which is sure to be even more of a lowballing than their refused deadline deals) before Stoudemire bolts like Usain to a better situation.

- Also, the Utah Jazz held onto their prized-but-long-time-trade-bait big man after several offers for Carlos Boozer fell through. Despite informing 'Los and the rest of the NBA that he wasn't part of their long-term plans months ago, Utah is contending for a division crown and trading a borderline All-Star for pennies on the dollar would've been a hasty move. Instead, they shipped their starting shooting guard for absolutely nothing, pissing off their franchise player
and confusing the hell out of everyone else. Maybe they thought Wesley Matthews could fill the void (...not saying he can't), but blatantly dumping one of your core guys to save a few dollars when your team's among the best in the conference doesn't send the right message to players or fans. Now, much like Phoenix, Utah can only pray that Boozer allows them to work a sign-and-trade, which given his history in such situations, is a sketchy proposition.

- Third in our series of Teams That Might Regret Holding Onto Their All-Star Big Man are the Toronto Raptors. A few months ago, mired in their usual nonchalance and defensive ineptitude, the Craptors were almost certainly going to have to deal Chris Bosh. Since 2010 dawned, they've played enough inspired basketball to make Bryan Colangelo think he's got a chance of holding onto his soon-to-be free agent. It's a tough read. Bosh has repeatedly stated that he 'loves' Toronto as a city and as a team, but he's also expressed a desire to play for a contender; something the Raptors are far from being. If he does re-sign, he'll be committing to a team that has $50 in dead money committed to The Remains of Hedo Turkoglu, has a poor track record of appeasing its star players, and an worse one when it comes to steadily building a winning franchise. He might claim he loves being the man on a mediocre team, but even though Bosh is a stand-up guy and least likely of these three players to bail unceremoniously, he'll have to weigh options and priorities very carefully this summer. 'Loving' a team is a different story from making the most important decision of your life in the faith that they'll show you that love in return.

- On the flipside, you have the teams that should've been looking to acquire a piece or two, and for whatever reason didn't get it done. Take the Miami Heat; a team that four years ago made some short-sighted moves that got them a title but now has left them in a serious hole. Since then, they've tumbled from the NBA's penthouse to the East's basement, and though they've attempted to climb out, look like they can't find the door. Dwyane Wade once affirmed his desire to be in Miami hiw whole career, but since making that statement has seen his team fall apart around him, forcing him to exert himself more than he should ever have to keep them in the playoff hunt while his GM publicly puts him on blast. It's obvious he's not happy here and will have teams lining up to deliver a franchise to his feet in mere months. The lack of activity by the Heat is alarming; deadline rumors had them aggressively pursuing Stoudemire and Boozer, but they shot themselves in foot by not really having any promising trade bait. The chance of luring a big-name free agent still might save them when Jermaine O'Neal's whale expires in June, but with so many teams waiting to gamble this summer, getting a jump on the market would've been key to cinvincing Wade to stay.

- The Golden State Clusterfucks also stood pat after dangling everyone on their roster short of Stephen Curry all season. I wish I knew why. Not only do they hold several intriguing, young trade prospects, but they have no identity within which to worry about the fit of a potential acquisition. They weren't even mentioned to be pursuing many offers, which given the disarray of their roster and record, just seems lazy.

- Although they weren't talked about as much, I sincerely expected the Pistons to shake things up because a) they have lots of talented pieces, b) Joey D's never shied away from triggering a big deal, and c) they're fucking pitiful this year. This seemed like a perfect time to jettison one/some of their young studs in what was clearly a buyers' market, but admittedly their recent decision to commit a third of their cap space to two guys who aren't currently starting hasn't given them much room to work with. Although he'll no doubt be working the phones to make something happen in June, Mr. Dumars' early summer plans will likely involve much more leisure time than if he had been in a different frame of mind back on that fateful June night in 2003. Hopefully visions of Carmelo and Dwyane re-upping with his team won't haunt him while he's putting to save par.

Of course, we'll need wait and see what develops over the next few months before we can cast a final judgement on the Trade Deadline. Maybe the passive route was the best idea and the waiting game will pay off for these franchises, but the trade market we just saw is a rare breed and passing it up is a serious roll of the dice at a high stakes game. Things are only going to get zanier this summer, and only time will tell if these teams came out for the better. But with so much talent and cap space readily available, there might be a lot of GMs soon spending time near the bottom of a bitter whiskey bottle, lamenting what might've been.

Have a good weekend everyone, I'll be back in a few days.