What the Fuck Just Happened - Making Sense of the Trade Deadline

This year's NBA Trade Deadline was supposed to breeze through with the lightest of whimpers. Even in today's era of internet hyper-coverage, where every transaction is slid under the microscope, this was supposed to be a mundane checkpoint, bookended between earlier blockbusters, and an upcoming offseason of pure salary-spiking ridiculousness.

We were nonetheless treated to the usual cavalcade of rumors that seemed too ridiculous to conceive ("...KG to the Wolves sounds realistic"), but instead of another flat-lined anticlimactic event, the NBA's front offices unleashed a dizzying typhoon of player movement that has altered the league's landscape - both in present and future - more than any deadline in recent memory.

In all, 37 players were traded - the most in deadline history. Serious playoff implications were altered, building teams have forged their paths or changed their courses for the future, an entire team's worth of B-list guards have new area codes, and against any conceivable odds, Kevin Garnett plays for Minnesota again.

So much went down yesterday. Let's try and figure out what it all means:


HEAT GET: The Brothers Dragic
SUNS GET: Danny Granger, Justin Hamilton, two first-rounders
This was kind of a bum deal for the Suns, who were forced to trade an All-NBA guard for 20 cents on the dollar after he publicly announced this week that he wouldn't be re-signing with them. It killed Dragic's trade value (you can't leverage much when every GM you're dealing with knows you're about to lose him for nothing) but made Phoenix's options pretty clear. Shitty as the situation may have been, they totally did it to themselves by quizzically signing athird starting point guard last summer, forcing the ball out of Dragic's hands. As such, they've lost arguably their best player for a pitiful return, less than 10 months after he seemed like a no-brainer franchise cornerstone.

Meanwhile, Miami obviously gets a desperately-needed upgrade to the NBA's worst point-guard tandem, finding themselves a capable floor general to spell Dwyane Wade, and a dangerous perimeter weapon on a team that isn't exactly scoring a ton this year. The Heat are now mortal locks to make the playoffs in a depleted East, and could be a poisonous first-round matchup if fully healthy. Even with their laughable bench, a Dragic-Healthy Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside starting lineup should scare the crap out of any team in the East. This move also heavily decreases the odds of Miami blowing things up in the near future, diminishing the value of the picks they sent the Suns. Even if Dragic bolts in the offseason, Miami will benefit from the cap bump and be able to eye a similar replacement.
GRADES: Suns, D; Heat, A

THUNDER GET: Enes Kanter, Steve Novak, Kyle Singler, DJ Augustin
JAZZ GET: Kendrick Perkins' Expiring Contract, Grant Jerrett, the draft rights to Tibor Pleiss (whoever that is), protected Thunder 1st-rounder, Pistons 2nd-rounder 
PISTONS GET: Reggie Jackson
So THIS is what becomes of one of the NBA's most long-time-coming exoduses, the uber-useless Kendrick Perkins reaching the end of an epic contract, and finally holding trade market value. Losing Jackson hurts but had to be done (see: Dragic, Goran), but Kanter is a possible stud who can finally be an OKC post threat, and has one of the NBA's best help defenders beside his own reasonably bad defense. He's still got room to grow, but even now is a real contention-sway for the Thunder. OKC also nabbed Kyle Singler and DJ Augustin who will immediately become rotation players, and better wing options than Jeremy Lamb and Andre Roberson. My only hesitance towards this trade is that I don't think Scott Brooks is very good at his job, and don't necessarily trust him to bring all these new faces together in time.

The Jazz got rid of Kanter, because they had to. He was the definition of a lame-duck starting for Utah, who had to play up his trade value, but also had Rudy Gobert demanding minutes. The clear move was to sell high now on Enes, playing his best ball ever, and sandwiched in their frontcourt. I'm not convinced they got enough. Sure the Perkins cap space is nice, and they have more future picks (though neither of them are that great), but I don't believe all cap space is created equal. and this is Salt Lake City Cap Space, which is such a player magnet with its vibrant nightlife and great weather (the place hosted the Winter Olympics for fuck's sake). But this summer's all about over-spending anyways.Who knows, maybe Utah has another international monster on their hands in Tibor Pleiss. If his Google picture's any indication, it's a safe bet:

The Pistons are getting to the playoffs this season, but beyond that might be strapped with Jackson - who's apparently looking for a near-max deal? #senile - in the summer. Jackson and Brandon Jennings don't make for the most compatible backcourt, and with the cap skyrocketing, there will certainly be teams putting pressure on the Pistons for the restricted free agent. So Detroit gets to solidify one of the most unlikely comebacks in modern NBA, lose to Atlanta in the first round, then jump in a blender a few weeks later. It's been an interesting first year for Stan Van Jeremy. Either way, he didn't sacrifice a lot to roll the dice here.
Grades: Thunder, A-; Jazz, C; Pistons, B

SUNS GET: Marcus Thornton, Cavs' 2016 first-rounder
CELTICS GET: Isaiah Thomas 
Not only did the Suns get rid of Dragic, but also dumped the free agent signing that spurned him, for a crappy pick and a likely low-value dice roll in Thornton. There's the potential for Thornton to catch fire on certain nights - especially in Phoenix's fast offense - but he takes a lot off the table (defense and ball movement chief among them) and only on last year's Nets has ever been on a Playoff team. So if you're keeping score at home, in the past 7 months, so far the Suns have had an All-NBA guard (Dragic), a borderline starter at by far the NBA's deepest position (Thomas), and after trading both, Marcus Thornton might be the best player they got back.

I'm not sure what to make of this for the Celts. Presumably they want as many lottery balls as possible and a chance to let Marcus Smart get minutes, but this move is very counter-productive to both those outcomes. Still, getting Thomas for such a bargain gives Danny Ainge another asset to bring to the table as he attempts to acquire entire draft rounds and you can't truly fault Boston for pulling the trigger.

Why would Phoenix just give Thomas away like that after signing him and trading Dragic...?
Grades: Suns, C-; Celtics, B

SUNS GET: Brandon Knight
BUCKS GET: Michael Carter-Williams, Miles Plumlee, Tyler Ennis
SIXERS GET: Picks (of course)
Well, because of this clusterfuck of a shuffle involving three teams, and motives of all walks.


First off, the Suns justified their Thomas-dump by basically upgrading him to Knight without giving up their identity or a key piece in their rotation. They now field an intriguing hybrid backcourt that can score in a variety of ways, and defend both guard spots better than any iteration of Dragic/Thomas/Eric Bledsoe they've fielded over the past year. This move signals their desire to remain in the fight for the West playoffs without Dragic, but they're highly unlikely to hold off the upgraded Thunder. Either way, they've won this trade for now,

I don't know what the fuck the Sixers are doing at this point. Their commitment to tanking is infuriatingly ass-backwards. Wake me up when they actually begin the "rebuild" phase of rebuilding.

The Bucks got a better fit for their dynamic, position-amorphous roster, yet another long, rangy defender, and a perfect pupil for Jason Kidd (Kidd was once a young PG who couldn't shoot, MCW is currently a young PG who can't shoot; Kidd wanted a PG who didn't look for his shot first, MCW is currently a young PG who can't shoot - you see the pattern here). We're about to find out how Carter-Williams can contribute on a team that isn't horrible, but odds are he'll mesh well with the Bucks' versatile core, and learn a thing or two from Kidd, with the highest upside rating in this trade. Plumlee was on Alex Len Island in Phoenix, and will be a welcome boost to a Bucks' frontcourt that's been leveled by injuries.
Grades: Suns, A; Bucks, B+; Sixers, D

BLAZERS GET: Arron Afflalo, Alonzo Gee
NUGGETS GET: Thomas Robinson, Will Barton, Victor Claver, lotto-protected 1st rounder
The Nuggets were widely-rumored to be shopping pretty much everyone on their roster this side of Jusuf Nurkic, but their deadline deal amounted to the shipment of just two players, bolstering the Blazers' perimeter with guys who aren't Nic Batum.

Batum's disturbing regression has been pretty much the lone wart on what's otherwise been a stellar season for the Blazers, and this move will allow them field more lineups with a Lillard-Matthews-Afflalo combo that will be a nightmare from the perimeter. Already a B-level contender, the Blazers gained a good sixth man for a bunch of fringe rotation guys. Huge win.

And the Nuggets failed to do anything to rescue them from the purgatory they're stuck in. What are the odds this pick falls out of the first round's bottom-five? Also, if anyone's taking bets on Brian Shaw's firing this summer, let me know.
Grades: Blazers, A; Nuggets, C


WOLVES GET: Kevin Garnett's Ghost
NETS GET: Thaddeus Young
I mean, it's kind of poetic in a way, A former legend who should've retired by now, returning to the franchise he wasted away his prime in, to waste away his final years on a team that's winning nothing but the Lotto during his NBA lifespan. Why Garnett would waive his trade clause to come here is sort of beyond me, but as he becomes increasingly irrelevant as a player, hopefully he can impart some wisdom on the Wolves' youngsters instead of being a biting, barking jackass.
Grade: I still can't really get over that this actually happened.

ELSEWHERE:

- The Wizards and Kings swapped backup point guards, trading Ramon Sessions for Prof. Andre Miller, in a trade that seems kind of backwards (wouldn't the team with the young superstar PG be the one wanting the savvy veteran leadership?).

- Javale McGee got dumped on the Sixers, which is perfect because the Sixers want to suck for the next half-decade and McGee is a $12 million-man who's played in 16% of games in the past two seasons. But hey, they got a draft pick out of it!

- The Pistons got Tayshaun Prince back (yawn).

- The Sixers, Rockets and Knicks did a jig that saw KJ McDaniels land in Houston with Pablo Prigioni, Isaiah Canaan fall to Philly (where he's about to become the fantasy deadline-value hero), and the Knicks actually acquire a draft pick for once.

- And apparently Alexey Shved got traded too. Real Earth-rattler right there.

The Trade Deadline shook things up for several teams in terms of long-term outlooks, but also likely solidified this year's race for the playoffs. It will take a massive curveball for OKC, Miami and Detroit not to fill the remaining un-booked tickets to the postseason dance, and all three should carry somewhere between reasonable (Pistons) and terrifying (OKC) upset status.

The dust is still settling, and the outcomes won't be settled for months (or perhaps years in some cases). Maybe by then we'll have wrapped our heads around the most unexpectedly wacky trade deadline ever.

Banter's 2014 UnOfficial Awards

A week ago, I unveiled my picks for the NBA's regular season awards, as usual a little early. I do this (mainly) for two reasons: a) to get the jump on other analysts whose opinions you surely care more about, and b) to avoid letting their logic subconsciously influence my decisions. Maybe I plan this too carefully for someone whose vote doesn't actually count, but according to ESPN's awards forecast pollsters - lots of whom are card-carrying NBA voters - I'm looking decent to go 5 for 6, with the arbitrary Most Improved Player being the lone sure miss.

Most of what I've read suggests Goran Dragic will snag MIP, which doesn't sit well with me. Dragic made a pretty big leap as a scorer this year, but by most numbers, and some general definitions wasn't even the most improved player in his own starting lineup.

Phoenix's season was a huge surprise; a refreshing burst of entertainment in a season when so many teams openly refused to compete (to overstate a point, the Suns were supposed to be one of them). Stellar as Dragic's campaign was, he was far from the only contributor on a team whose (essentially) whole rotation had dramatic career years. And it's also not as though he came out of nowhere.

Dragic should be acknowledged, but he's already a near-lock for an All-NBA nod in a season where a guard-injury epidemic hit perennial candidates Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Handing this award to him is akin to erroneously crowning the best player on the best team MVP, and it's especially tough to single out one player, when Phoenix's improvement was such a team function.

Speaking of seasons that need to be acknowledged (and with that rant off my chest) there was plenty more to celebrate in 2013-14 than the NBA's standard awards can cover, so without further delay, here are Banter's UnOfficial Awards:

Bobby Boucher Award: Al Jefferson
The player whose acquisition to a new team created the greatest positive impact.

Big Al was just an offensive beast this year; there's no way to deny his impact on Charlotte's pretty-unlikely run to the Playoffs, putting up near-career-best numbers for a team who exceeded the general preseason consensus by ~ 15 wins.

There's plenty of blame to go around; the team as a whole gelled nicely under a near-COY first year from Steve Clifford. But after Jefferson shook off his early bum leg, the Hornets relied on his post presence consistently, especially during Kemba Walker's absence. Their inspired refusal to tank is largely his fault.

Regards to: The Phoenix Suns, Dwight Howard, Monta Ellis

Canibus Award: Enes Kanter
The young player who was set to blow up this season, had plenty of opportunity, and didn't really deliver.

Not too much went right in Utah this season, and while the aim wasn't exactly for the Jazz to be "good" per se, part of the motivation for for letting Paul Millsap and the aforementioned Al Jefferson walk away for nothing last summer was to clear room for ^this guy to blossom in the low post.

Didn't quite happen, as Kanter's game developed at a rate far slower than any Mormon had hoped, while his presence in tandem with Derrick Favors was mostly dysfunctional. The Jazz are getting a good Lotto pick and have cap room to spare, but any kind of leap from Enes this year would've been encouraging going forward. (In completely, totally, 100% unrelated news, Kanter may or may not have also been one of my preseason picks for Most Improved Player).

Regards to: Ed Davis, Dion Waiters

Kevin Willis Lifetime Achievement Award: Derek Fisher

The player who demonstrates outstanding devotion to the game, defying most laws of common sense and physics through an utter refusal to retire. 

Fisher took this award home last year, but in a season where Russell Westbrook's injuries gave him unfathomable amounts of floor time, Fisher delivered some witty veteran play, often at key moments for the Thunder. He proved he wasn't a total relic, which the meme to your right more or less indicates.

Regards to: Antawn Jamison, Chauncey Billups, Jermaine O'Neal

Energizer Bunny Award: Joakim Noah
The player who just keeps going, and going, and going, and going...

You know how Drake's just been everywhere with basketball these past few weeks? Annoyingly popping up in every little unexpected corner of a game - courtside, in the locker room, in the ESPN studio, afterparty VIPing, or looming from his perch as the Raptors' Human Mascot - just to remind you how "on it" he is?

That was Noah all year. Dude just didn't stop.He combined perpetual movement with flawless execution; his efforts were both more balanced and focused; he did so much for the Bulls, while never taking plays off. It was a joy to watch, and every bit as irritating as Drizzy for whoever was up against it.

Regards to: Jimmy Butler, Monta Ellis, Blake Griffin

Leon Phelps Award: Andre Drummond
The player who caused the most drama with the ladies this season.

In an era where Social Media has more or less devoured actual social behavior, Drummond made headlines last year with his public Twitter pursuit of teeny-bopper Jennette McCurdy. His hashtag-bred courtship (how romantic.) led to several PDA-heavy dates, continuing to feed the viral frenzy around the young lovebirds. McCurdy even penned a very well-articulated op-ed for the Wall Street Journal on all the commotion.

The two became a highly-topical fodder for both gossip media, and members of the ubiquitous "anything's possible on the Internet" movement.

In a shocking turn of events, this hasty celebrity couple didn't last very long, with McCurdy's midseason revelation that her and Andre only went on a couple of dates, didn't vibe too well, and that a tiny teen actress kissing a 7-foot basketball player is every bit as awkward height-wise as you'd picture.

But of course, it wouldn't be a standard NBA relationship without something like this happening at all-too-perfect a time.

Regards to: Paul George, Raymond Felton, Dante Cunningham

The Earl Manigault Rebound of the Year: Shaun Livingston
The player who - against great odds or obstacles - made the most significant comeback this season.

The injury-ravaged career of Shaun Livingston had mostly been a tragic tale of great potential succumbing to a fragile body. Since 2004, he'd seen seasons of 4, 8, 10 and 26 games, only once playing more than 70.

After yet again appearing in just 17 for the Wiz last year, Livingston landed on the Nets - his seventh team in six seasons - and highly improbably dropped near career-best numbers for a Playoff team, appearing in a personal best 76 games, and having been the first sign of life when Brooklyn bombed out of the gate.

The fact that he's still in the NBA is a testament to his will and toughness; what he showed us this season deserves a nod.

Regards to: Derrick Rose, Kyle Lowry, Channing Frye

Ham of the Year: Andrew Bynum
The player who insulted expectations, his paycheck, and the game of basketball the most through continued dubiousness and a general resemblance to a roasted slab of meat.

I don't like to pick on injured players with this award, but in some cases it's just unavoidable. Especially when said injury was incurred while the player was tossing some ten-pin before he was cleared for activity. Enter this season's Andrew Bynum's Saga:

After spending a year on the bench, becoming an internet sideshow, Bynum's time in Cleveland was marked by disconnected play and enough incredulous stories to fuel a Best of Maury Povich DVD. There were sources claiming he'd slept with a coach's wife, others saying he'd spent an entire team scrimmage launching three-pointers off every touch, and one report went so far as him meeting with then-GM Chris Grant, claiming he didn't want to play basketball anymore.

Slotting an early-termination clause into his deal - allowing them to ditch him mid-season in the somewhat-likely event this were to happen - was the best thing that happened to the Cavs this year, turning the ability to fire Bynum into a trade asset. Indiana doesn't exactly have much to say about his time there.

Regards to: OJ Mayo, Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Bennett

The David Stern Award: Anthony Davis
The player who made the biggest power move this year.

I'm introducing this new award, not only as a needed salute to a legendary builder whom we all owe as fans of the game, but as the UnOfficial Awards' answer to Best Picture, Album of the Year, and Choice Hissy Fit.

The best way to explain my logic for this award is a combination of MVP and MIP; a player has to have escalated significantly, but more or less to or within the NBA's Penthouse (ruling out basically the entire MIP field). Like Stern, he's shown tremendous growth that has registered in the most impactful way.

What Davis showed this season was the makings of an all-around big man eerily reminiscent of Hakeem Olajuwon, who Bill Simmons in The Book of Basketball declared a "kajillionpilliongazillionfrazillionfriggallionmaillion to one" that we'd ever see again. The guy can do pretty much everything right now, and is still 21 (twenty-f***ing-one) and has so much to learn that it's almost unfair what he's capable of. When he pulls it all together consistently, he'll be totally unstoppable.

More or less everyone knew Davis was primed for a leap this year after adjusting to life in the NBA and its learning curve, fully healing his leg, and adding some bulk to his wiry frame. Nobody really saw this kind of casual all-around dominance from The Brow; the kind of season that promises he'll be an MVP someday.

It's really only a matter of how long the LeBron & Durant's Jay-Z/Nas duel carries on. They've got now, but Davis took next very decisively, and doesn't look like he's waiting too patiently.

Regards to: Kevin Durant, Joakim Noah, Blake Griffin 

Congrats to this year's winners (your trophies and Tim Horton's Gift Cards are in the mail). See you all on Saturday for what...? Playoffs.

Top 9s - PED Watch 2012

The Most Improved Player award is always one of the most exciting every season; not only did its recipient probably surprise us, but we got to watch someone make a name for themselves, forging a new star in the NBA that shone brighter than the many that battle for MIP every year.

As usual, the competition's been furious out of the gate, with many making bold claims that this is their year. Some do it for the team (injuries, new roles), some do it for self (playing time, contracts) and some do it out of pure love for the game, so here's a nod to the Top 9 guys who've taken their game (or HGH schedule - just kidding) to new heights: PED Watch 2012

9. Larry Sanders
It's taken a while for me not to picture Garry Shandling every time I hear this guy's name, but Sanders is making us forget all about subpar sitcoms with his play so far this year. Left with a void in their frontcourt by Ersan Ilyasova's inexplicably sudden crappiness (didn't seem like the "get paid and stop trying" type), Sanders has assumed a pivotal - and growing- role off the bench, providing capable mid-range scoring and staunch defense to backup their gamble-heavy perimeter. He plays with the all the hustle Ilyasova's lacked this year, so with increased playing time, his name (and face) could start to ring out much louder.

8. Kenneth Faried
Faried was a standout as a rookie last year, but is bending the NBA learning curve to his own standards this season, outweighing skill and size with raw motor and athleticism. The guy just does not stop moving on the court, and every single one of his steps or leaps is of benefit to his team. He cuts relentlessly, he screens constantly, he challenges for EVERY SINGLE loose ball, and generally makes whoever's facing him on either end of the court earn their paycheck twice-over that night. He's already arguably Denver's most effective player, and is still developing an offensive game beyond his off-the-ball activity. Cheesy as it sounds (but also fitting) the sky's the limit for a guy with so much hunger who's shown such steady strides.

7. Mike Conley
Many things have accounted for Memphis' surprise romp to open the season, but chief among them has been Conley's completion of his evolution into (and even beyond) what the Grizz saw when they gave him all that money. Conley's an excellent defender who's become a dangerous offensive presence; an extremely efficient scorer who can morph aptly in between attacker and playmaker modes as the defense dictates. He isn't afraid to take big shots and has been hitting 43% beyond the arc, as one of several D-stretching threats that have made the Grizz so dangerous this year. It's getting crowded in the "Elite Point Guard" mansion, but anyone who doesn't leave Conley's keys does so at their own risk.

6. OJ Mayo
Meanwhile, Conley's one-time running mate has found a new home in Dallas, and somewhat of a renaissance on a team that was suddenly bereft of explosive scorers. Vince Carter was too old. Dirk was too injured. Jason Terry was too in Boston. Well, if there's one thing Mayo likes to do, it's score, and he's responded to the Mavs' void by dropping 20/game and significantly lifting his shooting percentages across the board. What remains to be seen is if the historically streaky and zone-loving Mayo (meant both as "oh, they're in a zone, awesome!" and "no guys, I'm in a zone here, not passing") can maintain the consistent shooting as the second option once Dirk returns, but the early signs have been promising.

5. Anderson Varejao
Ok, so we all knew Varejao was a sneaky-effective monster on the glass, but this season he's become a completely different kind of beast, taking his rebounding to league-leading heights while becoming an increasingly large factor on offense, scoring 4 more points/game and doubling his assist avg to over 3/game. You can appreciate the work this guy's put into his game watching his crafty post moves and smooth finish, knowing this was the same kid that used to make Lebron James cringe with bobbled passes and botched layups several times a night. All it takes is a game, no a quarter, of Cavs basketball to see he's one of the hardest-working players in the NBA, and the effort's paying off huge this year.

4. Goran Dragic
It was evident Goran Dragic was a skilled player when he dropped 23 points in a single quarter... the 4th...On the Spurs....In the Playoffs. It seemed like he was primed for his breakout eons ago, but stuck behind Steve Nash in Phoenix (and then Kyle Lowry in Houston), Dragic was a victim of circumstance and never had the chance to blossom. Now back with the post-Nash Suns, Dragic has been everything he promised to be given starter's minutes; quick on both sides of the ball, with a nice shooting touch and playmaking abilities that would be much better suited to a team with so few options. It's not unfair to say Dragic might have been deserving of Suns teams past, but at least he's finally getting the chance to run the show.

3. Omer Asik
I'll admit, I thought the contract he got this summer was absolutely fucking ridiculous. I'll also admit, I was wrong, as Asik has taken absolutely no time to adapt to a much-expanded role in Houston, becoming a rebounding machine and improving his finishing around the basket seemingly every game. He was pegged by many for a breakout year (I'm far from the only person who's happy they swiped him in their fantasy draft) and so far might even be exceeding expectations. But then there's these two:

2. Greivis Vasquez
General Greivis showed off a solid shooting touch, gritty defending and even a minor clutch factor during Memphis' playoff run two seasons ago; it was evident then that he'd be a solid player. "Solid player" has been a significant insult to the improvement he's shown this year after winning New Orleans' starting PG spot almost by default. His career averages have doubled in every major category, while working with a young, raw, often confused roster that's hardly seen Anthony Davis yet, hasn't seen Eric Gordon at all, and can credit Vasquez's sudden uprising with keeping their early season afloat.

1. Jrue Holiday
Often, a player makes the boldest claim for this award by taking what pretty much every avid sports fan refers to as "The Leap": that breakout season where they ratcheted up from solid role player to unquestioned star, leaving little to no doubt despite the impressive efforts of others (see: Love, Kevin; 2010). Holiday, by all indications, is in the midst of said "Leap" with Philly's point guard reins all to himself. Good for 19/9 with 1.5 steals through the first 15 games, Holiday is adding yet another name to the seemingly endless tally of top-notch NBA point guards, and giving the 76ers a reason to pull the theoretical gun out of their mouths after news broke that their new franchise player indefinitely aggravated his injury bowling. If the Uhu putty holding Bynum's knees together ever settles properly, then these two could be a fearsome duo with Thad Young lurking, but for now, Holiday might have to be content with this trophy, as it's the only hardware he has a chance of winning this season.

Call Rasheed Wallace, It's Prediction Time

Training camps opened up league-wide a couple days ago, ringing in the beginnings of a new NBA season. Every basketball addict who spends the summer months struggling with few places to turn for a fix (there were even dry spots in this summer, which even more people were waiting on than Detox) savors this time of year; another eight months of the best hoops on the planet, and with a lockout on the horizon, maybe the last full season we'll get for a while.

With the preseason tipping off next week, this seemed like an ideal time to write up the Official Basketball Banter 2010-11 Preseason Predictions, my hopefully accurate insights about who's going to define the upcoming season. Before I begin, a quick confession: I think predictions are kinda stupid. As Tracy McGrady and Rasheed Wallace before us have proven, they're bold and falliable presumptions that we can see into the future and things will play out to our expectations...But man it's fun when you're right. Here goes nothing...

Rookie of the Year: John Wall, Washington Wizards

This is gonna be really tough. Both Wall and the belated Blake Griffin figure to be immediate impact players for teams that are supposed to be much better than last year. Griffin will surely bring solid rebounding and scoring help to a team that could use both, Wall's cieling is tremendous and his momentum much greater, having not just sat out an entire year. His dynamic with Gilbert will be fun to watch, but Arenas himself is coming off another season in suits, one that may have finally humbled one of the league's brashest personalities. If he cedes control to Wall's superior playmaking, it won't surprise me much, and might line the rookie up for this award and (!) maybe even a playoff spot in the suddenly wide-open bottom of the East bracket.

The Contenders: Blake Griffin, Demarcus Cousins, Evan Turner

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

This is kinda obvious. Howard's a safe bet to lead the League in rebounds and blocks, which would make it very hard to argue against him come April. You know what to expect from D12, and although his numbers dipped slightly last year (party due to teams becoming increasingly wary of his presence), he'll be the most dominant post defender in the NBA this year, and by far the most automatic award prediction.

The Contenders: Josh Smith, Rajon Rondo, Andrew Bogut

Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat

Trying to predict this award's a bit of a crapshoot; winning it involves improving a battling through injury and other roster adjustments, and generally getting more out of your players than was expected. Although said expectations are tremendous in Miami this year, Spoelstra seems like a good coach who's respected by his players and has a team talented enough to spark talk of a 72 win season. The NBA brass didn't shy away from giving Mike F***ing Brown the COY when the Cavs won 67 games, so if Miami dominates the regular season and doesn't get complacent, and Spoelstra manages three superstars well amid more media sctrutiny than any team before, it'll be tough to deny him.

The Contenders: Scott Brooks, Scott Skiles, Jerry Sloan

Most Improved Player: JJ Hickson, Cleveland Cavaliers

Again, a tough one, simply because the guy who won it usually wasn't supposed to. "Improvement" often gets quantified by statisical margins when voters get down to it, and Hickson's an athletic beast who will have tons of minutes for the rebuilding Cavs after he destroyed Summer League and they lost their two centers (not to mention the biggest 3 in the league). With all the opportunity he'll have, it's hard not to see him becoming much more of a force by default; if his game's even a slight bit nicer than last year, it might be enough to lock this up for him.

The Contenders: Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph, Goran Dragic

6th Man of the Year: Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns

With Leandro Barbosa gone in Phoenix, Dragic becomes the de-facto backup in the rotation, who will see an increased presence as Father Time slowly creeps up on Steve Nash. Dragic likely won't start if the Suns are healthy, but he'll bring witty playmaking and dangerous scoring off the bench. Just ask the Spurs. He'll get plenty more time to shine, but with Nashty still playing at an MVP level, probably not enough to rule him out for this award.

The Contenders: Carl Landry (if he doesn't end up starting), Corey Maggette, Jamal Crawford

MVP: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

The fate of the MVP award this year might hinge on Miami doing something historic. If the Heat win 70+ games, then Lebron or Wade is clearly going to be the MVP. In any other situation, their great seasons are likely to have a counter-productive effect on each other's chances, much like Shaq and Kobe in LA. Meanwhile, Durant is the poised leader of an improving team, fresh off a runner-up in last year's voting and a dominant romp at the Worlds this summer. The Thunder are sure to improve as they mature and under a player whose leadership has been highly touted, they will become a true force; an MVP-caliber team for a guy who's already got those letters written all over him.

The Contenders: Lebron James/Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard

East All-Stars: G - Dwyane Wade, G - Derrick Rose, F - Lebron James, F - Chris Bosh, C- Dwight Howard, Bench: Joe Johnson, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Gerald Wallace, Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bogut, Carlos Boozer

West All-Stars: G - Chris Paul, G - Kobe Bryant, F - Kevin Durant, F - Dirk Nowitzki, C - Chris Kaman, Bench: Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Tim Duncan, Rudy Gay, Al Jefferson, Brandon Roy, Russell Westbrook

East Bracket

1. Miami Heat - Easy choice here. Their offseason remodeling was the most impressive makeover since She's All That. Everyone and their grandma has them atop the East.

2. Boston Celtics - They got older, but also deeper; there won't be as much of a strain on their frontcourt's hobbled bodies. Should win 50+ easily if they stay healthy.

3. Orlando Magic - A few questions surround them now after Vince and Rashard regressed so much last year and Dwight failed to become a lethal offensive presence. Still very dangerous, but not the team that made the Finals two years ago.

4. Chicago Bulls - Landing Boozer and Korver helped ease the burn of missing out on the big fish in the Free Agent pool. They'll be much improved with the new faces, the continued growth of Rose and Noah, and not having their coach and GM brawling in the locker room.

5. Atlanta Hawks - You have to wonder how much better this team can get, or if they'll be as hungry now that JJ's Paid in Full and they know they have no chance of winning the East.

6. Milwaukee Bucks - Regardless of Michael Redd's health, this team is well-rounded and young enough that they could still surprise a few people with their developments. Fear the Deer.

7. New York Knicks - They're much more suited to D'Antoni's high-scoring antics with Felton and Stoudemire joining Gallinari, and much deeper than last year. They were dreaming of what Miami got, but after what they put themselves through to get there, any step forward is big.

8. Washington Wizards - Forget the abysmal season they had last year. They've got Arenas back, will have John Wall running the point, a healthy Josh Howard and the continued beasting of Andray Blatche. They have several young guys with lots of potential, and a chance to make this re-building thing pretty quick and painless.

West Bracket

1. Los Angeles Lakers - Last year they were the best team in the West by a large margin with both their bigs missing long stretches. Then they got deeper. Why bet against them now?

2. Dallas Mavericks - Adding Chandler to a full season of Butler and Haywood might make this the best team Cuban's thrown together, certainly the toughest defensively. Chances are it won't be enough for that title though...

3. Oklahoma City Thunder - As Durant continues to torment Seattle basketball fans, this team will be served much more notice this year, but also might have the highest cieling of any squad in the NBA.

4. San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs were much unhealthier last year than they've ever been (funny how that comes with age) but with Parker and Ginobili allegedly back at 100%, they stand a good shot at homecourt.

5. Utah Jazz - Losing Boozer stings, but Jefferson's a proven scorer who can hopefully develop some defensive intensity to endear Jerry Sloan. They covered themselves pretty well.

6. Houston Rockets - Things kinda hinge on the health of their two star players, but if Kevin Martin and Yao Ming can stay on the court, they'll bring the postseason with them.

7. Portland Trailblazers - I've kinda given up on bloating this team's preseason hopes on the hope that Greg Oden can redeem himself. They've lost both their backup points, Travis Outlaw, and a lot of faith in their big man's long-term durability.

8. Memhpis Grizzlies - This is my gamble. History and logic both would suggest that something will go horribly wrong in Graceland this season, but they've certainly got the talent to get here.

East Finals: Heat over Celtics

West Finals: Lakers over Thunder

NBA Finals: Heat over Lakers. I don't wanna see this happen, but I can't help but think it will. A lot of people seem to underestimate the devastation that Dwyane Wade and Lebron James will cause on the same team. Throw Chris Bosh in the mix, add a bunch of veterans who wants titles and know their roles, this team has size, skill and experience in spades. They're gonna put on one hell of a show, one that even us who are rooting against them will have to appreciate.