Friday, February 20, 2015

What the Fuck Just Happened - Making Sense of the Trade Deadline


This year's NBA Trade Deadline was supposed to breeze through with the lightest of whimpers. Even in today's era of internet hyper-coverage, where every transaction is slid under the microscope, this was supposed to be a mundane checkpoint, bookended between earlier blockbusters, and an upcoming offseason of pure salary-spiking ridiculousness.

We were nonetheless treated to the usual cavalcade of rumors that seemed too ridiculous to conceive ("...KG to the Wolves sounds realistic"), but instead of another flat-lined anticlimactic event, the NBA's front offices unleashed a dizzying typhoon of player movement that has altered the league's landscape - both in present and future - more than any deadline in recent memory.

In all, 37 players were traded - the most in deadline history. Serious playoff implications were altered, building teams have forged their paths or changed their courses for the future, an entire team's worth of B-list guards have new area codes, and against any conceivable odds, Kevin Garnett plays for Minnesota again.

So much went down yesterday. Let's try and figure out what it all means:


HEAT GET: The Brothers Dragic
SUNS GET: Danny Granger, Justin Hamilton, two first-rounders

This was kind of a bum deal for the Suns, who were forced to trade an All-NBA guard for 20 cents on the dollar after he publicly announced this week that he wouldn't be re-signing with them. It killed Dragic's trade value (you can't leverage much when every GM you're dealing with knows you're about to lose him for nothing) but made Phoenix's options pretty clear. Shitty as the situation may have been, they totally did it to themselves by quizzically signing athird starting point guard last summer, forcing the ball out of Dragic's hands. As such, they've lost arguably their best player for a pitiful return, less than 10 months after he seemed like a no-brainer franchise cornerstone.

Meanwhile, Miami obviously gets a desperately-needed upgrade to the NBA's worst point-guard tandem, finding themselves a capable floor general to spell Dwyane Wade, and a dangerous perimeter weapon on a team that isn't exactly scoring a ton this year. The Heat are now mortal locks to make the playoffs in a depleted East, and could be a poisonous first-round matchup if fully healthy. Even with their laughable bench, a Dragic-Healthy Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside starting lineup should scare the crap out of any team in the East. This move also heavily decreases the odds of Miami blowing things up in the near future, diminishing the value of the picks they sent the Suns. Even if Dragic bolts in the offseason, Miami will benefit from the cap bump and be able to eye a similar replacement.
GRADES: Suns, D; Heat, A


THUNDER GET: Enes Kanter, Steve Novak, Kyle Singler, DJ Augustin
JAZZ GET: Kendrick Perkins' Expiring Contract, Grant Jerrett, the draft rights to Tibor Pleiss (whoever that is), protected Thunder 1st-rounder, Pistons 2nd-rounder 
PISTONS GET: Reggie Jackson
So THIS is what becomes of one of the NBA's most long-time-coming exoduses, the uber-useless Kendrick Perkins reaching the end of an epic contract, and finally holding trade market value. Losing Jackson hurts but had to be done (see: Dragic, Goran), but Kanter is a possible stud who can finally be an OKC post threat, and has one of the NBA's best help defenders beside his own reasonably bad defense. He's still got room to grow, but even now is a real contention-sway for the Thunder. OKC also nabbed Kyle Singler and DJ Augustin who will immediately become rotation players, and better wing options than Jeremy Lamb and Andre Roberson. My only hesitance towards this trade is that I don't think Scott Brooks is very good at his job, and don't necessarily trust him to bring all these new faces together in time.

The Jazz got rid of Kanter, because they had to. He was the definition of a lame-duck starting for Utah, who had to play up his trade value, but also had Rudy Gobert demanding minutes. The clear move was to sell high now on Enes, playing his best ball ever, and sandwiched in their frontcourt. I'm not convinced they got enough. Sure the Perkins cap space is nice, and they have more future picks (though neither of them are that great), but I don't believe all cap space is created equal. and this is Salt Lake City Cap Space, which is such a player magnet with its vibrant nightlife and great weather (the place hosted the Winter Olympics for fuck's sake). But this summer's all about over-spending anyways.Who knows, maybe Utah has another international monster on their hands in Tibor Pleiss. If his Google picture's any indication, it's a safe bet:


The Pistons are getting to the playoffs this season, but beyond that might be strapped with Jackson - who's apparently looking for a near-max deal? #senile - in the summer. Jackson and Brandon Jennings don't make for the most compatible backcourt, and with the cap skyrocketing, there will certainly be teams putting pressure on the Pistons for the restricted free agent. So Detroit gets to solidify one of the most unlikely comebacks in modern NBA, lose to Atlanta in the first round, then jump in a blender a few weeks later. It's been an interesting first year for Stan Van Jeremy. Either way, he didn't sacrifice a lot to roll the dice here.
Grades: Thunder, A-; Jazz, C; Pistons, B

SUNS GET: Marcus Thornton, Cavs' 2016 first-rounder
CELTICS GET: Isaiah Thomas 
Not only did the Suns get rid of Dragic, but also dumped the free agent signing that spurned him, for a crappy pick and a likely low-value dice roll in Thornton. There's the potential for Thornton to catch fire on certain nights - especially in Phoenix's fast offense - but he takes a lot off the table (defense and ball movement chief among them) and only on last year's Nets has ever been on a Playoff team. So if you're keeping score at home, in the past 7 months, so far the Suns have had an All-NBA guard (Dragic), a borderline starter at by far the NBA's deepest position (Thomas), and after trading both, Marcus Thornton might be the best player they got back.

I'm not sure what to make of this for the Celts. Presumably they want as many lottery balls as possible and a chance to let Marcus Smart get minutes, but this move is very counter-productive to both those outcomes. Still, getting Thomas for such a bargain gives Danny Ainge another asset to bring to the table as he attempts to acquire entire draft rounds and you can't truly fault Boston for pulling the trigger.

Why would Phoenix just give Thomas away like that after signing him and trading Dragic...?
Grades: Suns, C-; Celtics, B

SUNS GET: Brandon Knight
BUCKS GET: Michael Carter-Williams, Miles Plumlee, Tyler Ennis
SIXERS GET: Picks (of course)
Well, because of this clusterfuck of a shuffle involving three teams, and motives of all walks.


First off, the Suns justified their Thomas-dump by basically upgrading him to Knight without giving up their identity or a key piece in their rotation. They now field an intriguing hybrid backcourt that can score in a variety of ways, and defend both guard spots better than any iteration of Dragic/Thomas/Eric Bledsoe they've fielded over the past year. This move signals their desire to remain in the fight for the West playoffs without Dragic, but they're highly unlikely to hold off the upgraded Thunder. Either way, they've won this trade for now,

I don't know what the fuck the Sixers are doing at this point. Their commitment to tanking is infuriatingly ass-backwards. Wake me up when they actually begin the "rebuild" phase of rebuilding.

The Bucks got a better fit for their dynamic, position-amorphous roster, yet another long, rangy defender, and a perfect pupil for Jason Kidd (Kidd was once a young PG who couldn't shoot, MCW is currently a young PG who can't shoot; Kidd wanted a PG who didn't look for his shot first, MCW is currently a young PG who can't shoot - you see the pattern here). We're about to find out how Carter-Williams can contribute on a team that isn't horrible, but odds are he'll mesh well with the Bucks' versatile core, and learn a thing or two from Kidd, with the highest upside rating in this trade. Plumlee was on Alex Len Island in Phoenix, and will be a welcome boost to a Bucks' frontcourt that's been leveled by injuries.
Grades: Suns, A; Bucks, B+; Sixers, D

BLAZERS GET: Arron Afflalo, Alonzo Gee
NUGGETS GET: Thomas Robinson, Will Barton, Victor Claver, lotto-protected 1st rounder
The Nuggets were widely-rumored to be shopping pretty much everyone on their roster this side of Jusuf Nurkic, but their deadline deal amounted to the shipment of just two players, bolstering the Blazers' perimeter with guys who aren't Nic Batum.

Batum's disturbing regression has been pretty much the lone wart on what's otherwise been a stellar season for the Blazers, and this move will allow them field more lineups with a Lillard-Matthews-Afflalo combo that will be a nightmare from the perimeter. Already a B-level contender, the Blazers gained a good sixth man for a bunch of fringe rotation guys. Huge win.

And the Nuggets failed to do anything to rescue them from the purgatory they're stuck in. What are the odds this pick falls out of the first round's bottom-five? Also, if anyone's taking bets on Brian Shaw's firing this summer, let me know.
Grades: Blazers, A; Nuggets, C


WOLVES GET: Kevin Garnett's Ghost

NETS GET: Thaddeus Young
I mean, it's kind of poetic in a way, A former legend who should've retired by now, returning to the franchise he wasted away his prime in, to waste away his final years on a team that's winning nothing but the Lotto during his NBA lifespan. Why Garnett would waive his trade clause to come here is sort of beyond me, but as he becomes increasingly irrelevant as a player, hopefully he can impart some wisdom on the Wolves' youngsters instead of being a biting, barking jackass.
Grade: I still can't really get over that this actually happened.

ELSEWHERE:

- The Wizards and Kings swapped backup point guards, trading Ramon Sessions for Prof. Andre Miller, in a trade that seems kind of backwards (wouldn't the team with the young superstar PG be the one wanting the savvy veteran leadership?).

- Javale McGee got dumped on the Sixers, which is perfect because the Sixers want to suck for the next half-decade and McGee is a $12 million-man who's played in 16% of games in the past two seasons. But hey, they got a draft pick out of it!

- The Pistons got Tayshaun Prince back (yawn).

- The Sixers, Rockets and Knicks did a jig that saw KJ McDaniels land in Houston with Pablo Prigioni, Isaiah Canaan fall to Philly (where he's about to become the fantasy deadline-value hero), and the Knicks actually acquire a draft pick for once.

- And apparently Alexey Shved got traded too. Real Earth-rattler right there.

The Trade Deadline shook things up for several teams in terms of long-term outlooks, but also likely solidified this year's race for the playoffs. It will take a massive curveball for OKC, Miami and Detroit not to fill the remaining un-booked tickets to the postseason dance, and all three should carry somewhere between reasonable (Pistons) and terrifying (OKC) upset status.

The dust is still settling, and the outcomes won't be settled for months (or perhaps years in some cases). Maybe by then we'll have wrapped our heads around the most unexpectedly wacky trade deadline ever.

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