Showing posts with label Los Angeles Clippers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Los Angeles Clippers. Show all posts

Monday, October 12, 2020

NBA Bubble Power Rankings Part I: The Losers

Well. That was a journey. 


The NBA pulled off a miraculous feat of planning, regulation and social construction, stuffing most of the league into a self-contained bubble, in Florida of all places. 

While the United States went to complete and utter shit all around them, the bubble stayed strong, finishing the season and giving us closure to the weirdest NBA campaign ever.

Trying to recap the past few months in a brief, clean little piece is pretty damn difficult. We've seen so much - both in the NBA bubble and the calamity of the outside world - that a concise summary hardly does it justice. Compound that with the general disorienting haziness that 2020 has shrouded us all in, and it becomes near-impossible.

Instead, I'm delving into a complete breakdown of the bubble's key entities with the NBA Bubble Power Rankings. The higher the number, the worse the ranking. 

We'll be doing this in three parts: The Losers, The Middle Class, and the Best of the Bubble. As with many things in life, you've gotta get the bad out of the way before enjoying the good:

Last Place: Racist cops

We need to start here. 

The issue of justice and social equality for people of color was constant throughout the NBA's rebirthed season. 

From jersey messages, to billboards and broadcast graphics, ads, interviews, shoes, masks, and literally anywhere physically possible to get the message across.

After Kenosha, Wis. police shot Jacob Blake seven times in the back in front of his children, the players collectively decided they'd had enough of this shit. Beginning with Kenosha neighbors the Milwaukee Bucks, they staged a strike that would permeate to other leagues, effectively putting Western Hemisphere sports on hold for a weekend. 

The result was a pledged commitment to the movement - not just spreading the message, but ensuring action - from the NBA. Most notably, the league will convert team-owned arenas to voting sites for the upcoming election, increasing both capacity and accessibility in major cities.

What the players accomplished was historic. In a country disproportionately run by rich white people, they made rich white people care about their plight and align in fighting it.

And the league continued to place itself at the forefront of this year's ongoing battle against racial injustice. The NBA was by far the "wokest" of the pro sports cohorts, correctly identifying with the young men (the majority of whom are POC) who make their league what it is. 

Unfortunately, there's both anecdotal and empirical evidence suggesting their plea for humanity has - among several other factors - helped contribute to plummeting TV ratings. It's tragic that many still tune out what's often perceived as a "political agenda" (it's not). But it's beyond admirable that the NBA is still willing to fight the good fight. 

Basketball is growing enough internationally to weather whatever storm the NBA faces from racist "fans" in North America. And the impact of what they helped ignite this summer could be, quite literally, revolutionary.

Second-Last Place: The scum that sent death threats to Danny Green

993. Sports leagues that didn't bubble

982. Mike Budenholzer/Milwaukee Bucks

The extent to which Budenholzer coached the Bucks out of their series with the Heat cannot be overstated. 

He foolishly capped his best players' minutes and refused to make any sort of adjustments to his rotation or defensive scheme. Worse yet, he completely neutered Giannis Antetokounmpo, keeping him off Jimmy Butler Duty, and glued to the bench for the most important stretch of Milwaukee's season (the start of Miami's Game 3 comeback).

As a result, the Bucks are facing DEFCON 1 with an aging core, one year left on Giannis' contract, and back-to-back playoff collapses to match his back-to-back MVPs. Fear for the Deer is more like it. 

957. Paul George

The postseason couldn't have gone much worse for "Playoff P", who averaged his fewest playoff ppg since 2013 and shot a horrid .398 from the field. 

As a result, George was the main Haterade recipient after the Clippers' premature meltdown, and had the internet conjuring up every possible slanderous derivative of his nickname. 

In perhaps a personal low point, Seth Curry - who has a not-so-congenial connection to PG - called him a "bitch ass" on international television. 

936. Newsday's Greg Logan

For thinking that Andre Drummond was the NBA's best defender this year. 

919. Danuel House Jr.

Got kicked out of the bubble after his booty call was busted, which was dumb, clumsy, and selfish all in one swoop.

913. Steph Curry's cornrows

906. Game 7 Steve Ballmer

903. Pascal Siakam

Spicy P was pretty damn mild as he mostly disappeared from Toronto's second-round exit. Fans and pundits alike questioned his status as a franchise player, and he drew many unflattering comparisons to ghosts of Raptors playoffs past. 

898. Marcus Morris

Between his cheap-shot on Luka Doncic's ankle, and seemingly igniting the Nuggets' comeback with his Paul Millsap beef, Morris was more of a pro wrestling heel than a basketball player the past few months.

877. The Reggie Miller-Chris Webber tandem

Miller and Webber have long been two of the NBA's most-derided TV emcees. Webber's a try-hard who comes off corny as hell. Miller's mere aura, much like as a player, is an irritant. Both of their commentaries are shallow, misguided, and often contradictory. 

Due to the bubble's restricted media crews, they spent more time than usual in the same booth and, god, was it ever bad.

849. Los Angeles Clippers

Much like the Bucks, suffered a humiliating second-round defeat. Much unlike the Bucks:

  • lost after being up 3-1
  • weren't beaten by the eventual Conference Champ
  • coasted through the regular season with nonchalance and arrogance befitting a much more accomplished team
The Clippers are a bit higher than the Bucks here because they aren't in quite as desperate a situation, and have already fired their overrated coach (formerly another similarity). But they basically mortgaged their future for this core, and did not do so for second-round losses. 

826. Philadelphia 76ers

Whatever The Process became, it's pretty fucking tough to trust it at this point. The Sixers remain the NBA's most dysfunctional talented team, facing an identity crisis at seemingly every turn. 

They were unceremoniously swept out of the first round. Then Joel Embiid began passive-aggressively subtweeting the organization throughout the Heat's playoff run.

The Sixers now have to look at a serious shakeup in an offseason with no salary cap growth and a highly unpredictable market, while they try and convince some poor soul to pay a 36-year-old Al Horford $26.5 million in 2023 (good luck).

808. Charles Barkley's "GUAR-AN-TEE!"s

802. Replay review length/intervals

798. Coach's challenge selection

780. Danny Green

I'm not entirely sure what Danny Green's done to piss off Lakers fans, but holy shit do they ever hate him.

His inconsistency hardly stood out among L.A.'s supporting cast this year. But there was a fresh round of stones thrown at Green with every missed three, culminating in his now-immortal Game 5 brick. 

729. Houston Rockets 

Apparently forgetting that Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis play for Western Conference contenders, Houston went all-in on small ball, producing another painfully predictable second-round loss. 

Their eradication of every center on their roster came off almost as a trade-deadline gimmick; a fit of desperation from the depths of Daryl Morey's analytics chamber.

In the end, Houston played themselves yet again, having now lost the ideal coach for such a system. They're back at the drawing board without a plan.

700. Nate McMillan/Indiana Pacers

Pacers got swept. Nate got fired. Vic Oladipo wants out. Not great. 

682. Scott Foster

Deployed much like Lieutenant Marimow in "The Wire", Foster, the NBA's resident killjoy referee, became a B-plot villain, drawing ever-increased ire from fans and being name-dropped by Chris Paul in an emotional post-elimination interview. 

667. Russell Westbrook

659. Kendrick Nunn

648. Dillon Brooks' shot selection

643. Zion Williamson

Zion was largely absent from what was supposed to be the Pelicans' triumphant ascent to the postseason. Williamson barely averaged twenty minutes, missing three of the eight seeding games entirely. New Orleans flamed out, not even a factor in the ridiculous four-way final day clusterfuck for the West's 8th and 9th seeds.

It's still too early to call Zion an injury liability, but his first season was as worrying as it was tantalizing. A body that size cannot normally do the things he does; the impact of all that weight and force is considerable.

618. Paul Pierce

While not as irritating as Miller and Webber, Pierce is still a definite minus to most broadcasts. His takes are like hour-old McDonald's french fries; cold, too salty, and tough to digest.

586. San Antonio Spurs

Missed the playoffs for the first time since "Anaconda" was the #1 movie at the box office. They're in clear rebuild mode, and don't exactly have an enviable long-term outlook. 

552. Disney World's room service 

538. The "socially distanced bench" concept

520. Jayson Tatum's stiff-arms

Tatum is a supremely-talented basketball player, capable of torching pretty much any defender. Unfortunately, when driving to hoop, he still feels the need to throw more stiff-arms than a Slipknot mosh pit, clearing out defenders as they move with him.

This greasy tendency cost the Celtics on numerous key possessions, now that the refs have caught on. Tatum's got a deep bag of tricks, and he'll need to find more subtle ways of creating space for himself.

514. Twitter over-reactions to flopping

509. Jeff Van Gundy's rants about flopping

506. Actual flopping

501. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Won the MVP. Had to accept it from Greece.

Stay tuned for Part II later this week...

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Banter's 2019 NBA Awards

Welcome, one and all to Basketball Banter's 2019 NBA Awards!

Obviously, it's been a while since I've posted on here; my last Banter post was 2018's Awards, exactly a year ago today.

I unfortunately have less time for writing these days, and that quota is largely devoted to my Memphis Grizzlies work for Beale Street Bears. But I felt inspired to knock the dust off my Blogger account this week, and toss my 2019 awards picks (however insignificantly) into the internet zeitgeist.

Let's get into it (stats accurate as of 04/10):

All-Rookie Teams
First Team: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander



Second Team: Jaren Jackson Jr, Mitchell Robinson, Collin Sexton, Kevin Knox, Kevin Huerter



ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: LUKA DONCIC
With his soggy build and lack of athleticism, many pundits questioned Doncic's NBA impact, despite him having dominated the World's second-best basketball league as a teenager.

It took just games for him to silence even the staunchest critics. Within weeks he was an internet phenomenon. By December, he was being compared to the best rookies ever. And by 2019, he was a nightly threat to drop a triple-double.

The end result is an absolute romp of a debut: 21.2/7.8/6.0. For context, Doncic averaged more points, assists and rebounds than LeBron James did in his rookie year, despite playing 23% fewer minutes per game. He also topped Rookie LeBron in most major advanced metrics.

Doncic was a one-man offense; converting on high-difficulty shots and passes time and again. His pedigree and instant success denied him any early grace period where a rookie is taken lightly. Guys went at him from the get.

The Rookie 20/5/5 Club is pretty exclusive: Doncic and James join Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and for some reason Tyreke Evans. Unless we're being guided by the outlier, this is indicative of a generational talent.

Much respect to Trae Young, who went completely nuclear over the season's second half, triggering a surprisingly-competent Hawks turnaround (despite being the NBA's literal worst defender). Notwithstanding, Doncic's rookie season was one of the finest on record; pure piff from the first tip.

Regards To: Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley


SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: MONTREZL HARRELL

Ironically, this award mainly comes down to two teammates. Un-ironically, they both hail from the scrappy, star-less overachievers that were this season's Los Angeles Clippers.

Lou Williams is a two-time former 6MOY winner, who dropped 20/game this year and was constant offense for a team that had often had no alpha scorer.

But if you dig a little deeper than points, Harrell's all-around impact on the Clippers is not debatable. He led the entire team in VORP, BPM, DBPM, win-shares, and PER (among qualifying players, sorry Boban). He also posted significantly higher ratings than Williams on both sides of the ball.

While there's plenty of blame to go around for the Clippers' refusal to die this season, many of the numbers paint Harrell as the chief culprit. His rugged hustle, relentless motor and consistent, high-IQ play were a model for the rest of L.A. (the Clippers, at least) to follow.

Regards To: Lou Williams, Domantas Sabonis, Derrick Rose



COACH OF THE YEAR: MIKE MALONE

As it's consistently been in years past, Coach of the Year was a bastion of arbitrariness again this year, fought for by several deserving candidates.

I can't knock a vote for Nate McMillan, who dragged the Pacers to another over-achieving season despite a slew of injuries. Nor for Doc Rivers, who Frankensteined a playoff team out of the Clippers' attempted rebuild.

Fringe contenders like Dave Jeorger, Kenny Atkinson, Nick Nurse and Steve Clifford also hold weight, but two candidates stand above the rest here: Mike Budenholzer, and Malone.

All due respect to Budenholzer, but I generally feel Milwaukee's season is as much an indictment of previous coaching as it is his triumph. It's also a massive chicken-or-egg race between he and Executive of the Year contender Jon Horst.

Last year's Bucks were a stacked squad that was highly maligned and misused. Adding Brook Lopez and a couple other pieces unlocked their potential, but spacing the floor around a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo is pretty basic stuff.

What sets Malone apart is how multi-faceted his performance was. The Nuggets were primed to make a leap this year, but many had them pegged for a mid-playoff team. Instead they jostled with the Warriors atop the West for months, despite prolonged absences to several key players.

Malone got the Nuggets to play top-10 defense, turning everyone's preseason concern about them into a strength. He milked max value out of former nobodies like Malik Beasley, Torrey Craig and Monte Morris, the latter of whom is now among the NBA's best backup PGs. And he maintained consistent success amid a violently oscillating lineup structure, with guys like Gary Harris out every other night, Trey Lyles wildly inconsistent, and Isaiah Thomas ultimately a dud.

Lots of deserving campaigns again, but Malone perhaps did the most with the least, and it was more than anyone - even at full strength - expected of Denver.

Regards to: Mike Budenholzer, Nate McMillan, Doc Rivers


MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: PASCAL SIAKAM
What after a few weeks looked like De'Aaron Fox's award to lose was snared by Siakam's out-of-nowhere ascent to likely future All-Star. Fox could've put up a fight, but he staggered a bit as the season went on, along with the Kings' playoff hopes.

Conversely Siakam became a breakout sensation for a Raptors team that went almost half the season missing Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, or both. They still managed to win almost 60 games, buoyed by amazing depth and Siakam's two-way brilliance.

Siakam's numbers surged across the board, including a leap from .508 to .549 shooting, despite almost doubling his attempts per game, and certainly commanding more attention from defenders. Siakam was indispensable on D himself, one of the league's most switchable players, with long limbs, ridiculous motor, and an increasing sense of awareness.

Siakam's case is more bolstered by Toronto's success, and the organic nature of his development therein. Nothing was ascribed about his role this season, nor was there much room for error in the pressure cooker of a Leonard contract year.

What Siakam's given the Raptors is instant Leonard insurance. If Kawhi stays, they'll have one of the scariest frontcourts in the NBA. But even if he leaves, Toronto might not be in such bad shape.

Regards To: De'Aaron Fox, D'Angelo Russell, Paul George


All-Defense Teams
First Team: G-Marcus Smart, G-Jrue Holiday, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Eric Bledsoe, G-Patrick Beverley, F-Derrick Favors, F-Anthony Davis, C-Myles Turner


DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO
Lots of people are going to try and give this award to somebody else, on account of Antetokounmpo's MVP-esque campaign, and that somehow cannibalizing his case here.

If you're looking at the DPOY race impartially, it has to go to either Antetokounmpo, or reigning champ Rudy Gobert. And there are mere hairs between them as candidates. Both are ultimate disruptions, who shoulder each other at or near the top of every major defensive metric, and anchor the NBA's two best team defenses. Both grab a ton of rebounds, and avg 2.5-3 stocks per game.

While Gobert is both the ultimate deterrent and penalty against ill-advised forays to the rim, Giannis is a shape-shifting eraser, who can lock up swingmen as easily as snuff the league's best center. His position-amorphous style is increasingly indicative of NBA trends, and thus of great advantage to the Bucks, who can switch him onto literally any attacker, and bust up otherwise-commonplace pick-n-rolls. It's not an exaggeration that Antetokounmpo is the NBA's single most versatile defender.

As recently as last month, Giannis had a decent edge. Gobert made an impressive late season rally to tighten the individual metrics gap, pull Utah to 50 wins, and nudge them right behind Milwaukee in team defense.

It's at least made the decision extremely difficult, but if we're judging the entire body of work here, and analyzing within the context of an increasingly perimeter-oriented league, Giannis wins by the slimmest of margins.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Paul George, Myles Turner


All-NBA Teams
First Team: G-James Harden, G-Stephen Curry, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Joel Embiid

Second Team: G-Damian Lillard, G-Kyrie Irving, F-Kevin Durant, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Nikola Jokic

Third Team: G-Bradley Beal, G-Russell Westbrook, F-Blake Griffin, F-LeBron James, C-Rudy Gobert


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO

This was tough. This was really, really tough. Honestly, I'd have voted for co-MVP between Giannis and James Harden if I could, but that's too much of a cop-out.

Harden pulled possibly the biggest "Team On My Back" in NBA history. The Rockets confounded the entire NBA with their ineptitude over the season's first two months, but Harden righted the ship with a simply staggering offensive display.

Let the record show that he averaged almost 44 points for an entire fucking month, and had teams literally opening driving lanes for him to prevent his patented step-back three.

Even amid his exaggerated sometimes-sleepy defense, Harden's contributions were Herculean. His 36 ppg average is the most ever by someone not named Michael Jordan or Wilt Chamberlain; his game log peppered with triple-doubles and single-handed victories. As a result, Houston skyrocketed (sorry) from the West's basement to a homecourt seed, without both Chris Paul and Clint Capela for long stretches. It was nothing short of a historic season.

But Antetokounpo's case is just too bulletproof. He too had a historic year; the first guy to post averages of 27/12/5 in over 50 years. Of that rarefied list - on which he joins four straight-up NBA legends - Giannis posted by far the best eFG%, adding all-World defense for good measure. He sits neck-and-neck with Harden atop virtually every major advanced stat, bolstering one of the finest all-around statistical displays ever.

With two all-time great seasons placing Harden vs Antetokounmpo head & shoulders above the rest, Freak has the decisive edge in two areas:

1 - Defense. Harden's defensive commitment wanes from night to night, and even play to play. He's capable of heads-up stopping, but often mails in plays to save himself in between offensive possessions. As noted above, Antetokounmpo was (in my opinion) the NBA's best defender this year.

2 - Dominance. Houston was a total train wreck for the season's first six weeks, which definitely  can't be ignored. The Bucks' season was unimpeachable from the get; owning the NBA's best record and net rating, largely because of Giannis, and the system his unique physique and skill set permit.

It seems like robbery for Harden yet again. This could be his third narrow MVP loss in the past four years. But Giannis' steady ascent to the NBA's very peak reached its destination this season. He's 24 years old; his best is still yet to come.

Regards To: James Harden, Paul George, Joel Embiid

Friday, September 15, 2017

2017 Offseason Power Rankings - Part I: The Basement-Dwellers

So. That was an offseason.


After Kevin Durant kind of changed the game last year, this summer became an utter clusterfuck of star - and superstar - movement.

As the salary cap bonanza continued, teams threw astronomical amounts of money around, even with the cap coming up shorter than projected.

Rumors, beefs and demands completely flooded the internet. The soap opera and hype machine factors were higher than ever before.

A deep draft loaded with (what else) point guards gave the league a huge supplement at what was already its most talented position.

And while the Warriors still stand alone as the NBA's best, the power dynamic beneath them has shifted noticeably amid the dustup over the past few months.

So who came out on top of all this madness? Focusing purely on this summer's impact, Banter's attempting to rank how the NBA's various entities fared over the offseason, starting at the bottom with the Basement-Dwellers:

Last Place: The Eastern Conference

It was already long the crappier of the two conferences, but this summer for the East was like Season 3 for the Barksdale crew.

Two of the East's four best players were traded to the West for virtually nothing. A third All-Star left for absolutely nothing. As such, the Hawks, Pacers and Bulls are about to nosedive down the standings, leaving a huge void at the bottom of the playoff bracket.

Concurrently, there was little-to-no progress from East doormats like Orlando, Brooklyn and New York. With the possible exception of the Celtics, every East team top-to-bottom is now crappier than its West counterpart.

While we struggle to justify Eastern All-Stars this year, there will be incessant discussion of LeBron James' apparent intent to also skip town for the West, which would basically be the basketball equivalent of this conversation.

987. Dan Gilbert
Gilbert's Summer started by panic-firing the GM who put the Cavs' championship team together, as he was working a deal for Jimmy Butler no less. Then came the realization that nobody wanted to work for the Comic Sans Bandit when all his target candidates declined.

One of the key factors in their skepticism were rampant rumors - so many that it's hard to just call them rumors - of LeBron's imminent departure. As if that weren't enough, Kyrie Irving then forced his way out of town, capping a total shit-typhoon of a summer for Gilbert's franchise and reputation.

955. Chicago Bulls

Having your former coach commit grand larceny for your franchise player is never a great place to start.

Da Bulls gave up a top 10-15 player, netting a lot of question marks in return: Lauri Markkanen's recent triumphs at Eurobasket are encouraging, but he's still very much a project. Zach LaVine's entire value hinges on a torn ACL. Kris Dunn is somehow an even worse shooter than last season's Rondo/Carter-Williams point squad.

Hours after the Butler debacle, they literally sold Jordan Bell to the Warriors, which is beginning to look like an extremely stupid decision.

Elsewhere, the Bulls overpaid Cristiano Felicio, while the Cameron Payne deal continues to be awful, adding only more cringe to Chicago's offseason.

928. Doc Rivers 
A respected coach who repeatedly sabotaged himself by making dumb moves as GM, Doc's spotty history in the dual-role finally caught up with him this summer.

Chris Paul forced his way out of town amid trepidation of GM Doc's ineptitude, costing Coach Doc his best player. It proved costly for GM Doc too, as he no longer exists.

901. Indiana Pacers 
Much like the Bulls, were completely robbed of an elite swingman. Despite potentially an even worse return, Indiana was severely handicapped by PG wanting to leave them - and likely any team he was traded to - specifically for the Lakers. It can't be frowned upon quite as much as the Bulls' blunder.

874. Nerlens Noel
Pretty awkward summer for Noel, who had 4 years/$70 million on the table, shunned the contract, sat unclaimed for two months, fired his agent, and finally inked the paltry qualifying offer.

While he's free to roam unrestricted in 2018, an injury-heavy past haunts him as he plays for a long-term deal. He's unlikely to find much better next summer, and the potential downside if he gets hurt again is heavy.

858. The Trade Market for Superstars 
Superstars have become a very tricky asset in NBA trade markets. In such a star-driven league, there seems to be no more ground between "this guy's untouchable, we want a king's ransom" and "we're fucked, the league knows he's leaving and they're lowballing us".

The reverse-leverage created by a superstar's flight risk led to absolute robberies of Jimmy Butler and Paul George, while the Clippers only got a pu-pu platter deluxe for Chris Paul. The Cavs might actually win the Kyrie Irving trade, but only because they miraculously targeted the one good team with the right asset mix.

If you're a shitty franchise with a young superstar (looking your way New Orleans), maybe get the jump on the trade market before your situation's obviousness buries you.

834. Utah Jazz
The Jazz were already a grind-it-out defensive team who finished dead last in team scoring last year. Then their two best offensive players left them. Ricky Rubio's a decent pickup who should mesh well with Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, but for their biggest needs - scoring and shooting - he's pretty useless.

815. Patrick Patterson

When you're an established NBA veteran who's been a key role player for a winning franchise, and Cristiano Felicio is suddenly signing for twice as much as you, things need to be re-evaluated.

797. New York Knicks
They shed themselves of Phil Jackson, but the same institutional nightmares remain. They proceeded to sign Tim Hardaway Jr to the summer's most-trolled contract, then had to learn the Porzingis drama they thought they killed with Phil could be alive and well.

778. Atlanta Hawks
Whatever siege the city of Atlanta is waging upon pop culture, the Hawks aren't going to be a part of it. With Paul Millsap now in new threads, ATL's entire "Spurs East" roster has been shed, leaving in its wake the likes of Ersan Ilyasova, Miles Plumlee and Luke Babbitt. (Hooray!). They're in full-on rebuild mode with no foundation players or identity.

764. Cleveland Cavaliers
Not quite as insulting an offseason for Cleveland as its owner, but still mildly disastrous. Sure, they got a good return for Kyrie (assuming Isaiah Thomas' hip stays together). They still had to trade a bonafide superstar, worse yet to the only team in the East that threatens them.

Between the trade, its surrounding drama, the opportunity cost of firing David Griffin, the incessant LeBron exodus talk and Boston's power moves, just a bad scene all around for the Cavs.

741. Dallas Mavericks

Because it's the Mavericks, their plans to sign a free-agent center obviously went horribly awry with the lose-lose Nerlens Noel crisis. They also struck out on other key free agent targets, but pulled another season out of Dirk for the legacy bargain of $5 million.

Dennis Smith could be a killer pickup, however the Mavericks are still several steps behind the rest of the West's perennial basement - the Wolves, Suns, Lakers and, yes, somehow even, the Kings - who at least have multiple assets and/or a long-term plan. They're likely to be leapfrogged by several teams in the standings.

711. New Orleans Pelicans
Took without question the summer's biggest gamble giving Jrue Holiday $125 million, and are still painfully thin around Boogie & Brow. Holiday's potential is capped, and his injury risk is severe, leaving only potential downside to a bloody expensive five-year commitment.

The Pelicans also needed spacing around their superstar big men, proceeding to sign Rajon Rondo and Tony Allen; two the weaker shooters by reputation in the NBA. Don't be shocked if this roster flops and the Cousins trade winds start blowing again.

707. Kyle Lowry
Lowry got shafted by the free agency market again, this time due to the ubiquity of the point guard, suddenly a need for fewer teams than ever. Franchises that had cap space and a point void were slim, forcing Lowry to take a shorter deal as his prime fades.

698. Dwight Howard
Shipped out of yet another city after his negligible impact on their franchise (moreover his hometown team). The Hawks knew they overpaid Howard, cutting him loose after just one season to key their rebuild.

He does still stand to make $23.5 million this year, but it's hard to picture a guy who once punched a teammate in the face putting up with much of Howard's immaturity.

679. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers definitely can't be happy about their offseason, but given how bad things turned out for other teams that traded superstars, they can't be too upset either.

The Paul haul (plus Danilo Gallinari) leaves them a balanced rotation, with upside to spare from Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker and a first-round pick.

Their main concern will be playmaking, particularly for DeAndre Jordan, who will feel CP3's absence the most. They'll have to succeed with Blake Griffin running a lot of point forward; the Clippers currently deploy Pat Beverley, Austin Rivers and second-round pick Jawun Evans at the one.

661. Brooklyn Nets
The Nets got a little cred towards the end of last season when they started busting ass and playing actual edible basketball. But these were baby steps in a cosmic sense. This team is still two years away from being two years away.

While they wrangled D'Angelo Russell from the offseason waters, they hauled in the whale contracts of Timofey Mozgov and Allen Crabbe. Brooklyn also took on the last two years of DeMarre Carroll's gross deal, all together wasting them just around $100 million through 2018-19.

Stay tuned for Part Two: The Half-Steppers, coming soon.

Friday, May 5, 2017

Playoff Hot Takes!

As we meander towards what looks like an increasingly inevitable Warriors-Cavs rubber match, the playoffs have been developing somewhat predictably:

- The Jazz pulled off the only first-round upset
- Russell Westbrook Westbrook'd himself out in the first round
- The Raptors are playing inconsistently
- Gregg Popovich is the adjustment master
- The Celtics and Wizards might kill each other before the series is decided
- Rob Hennigan got fired
- As expected, a team looks unbeatable in each conference

Despite its seemingly predestined result, there are still a few noteworthy things developing in these playoffs - a few random thoughts:

The Clippers Are Cursed


It just seems unfair at this point.

Years upon years of trash basketball; the franchise run in reprehensible manner by a notorious bigot. When they drafted a franchise guy in Blake Griffin, and were gifted Chris Paul (I use that term literally), there was finally reason to hope for this team. A few years later they ousted Donald Sterling and brought in a coach with a championship pedigree; the pieces were falling into place.

Little did the Clippers know, they were just setting themselves up for disappointment in larger moments. The franchise is still yet to make its first West Finals, pulling an incomprehensible meltdown the one time they seemed headed there. A combination of injuries and indifference have betrayed them annually, not to mention that GM Doc Rivers is nowhere near the same level as Coach Doc Rivers.

LAC heads into what is likely the most crucial offseason in the NBA. The writing seems to be on the wall in bold font that this roster core has run its course. Not only is their own fate in serious flux, but the potential repercussions - a departure of Paul, Griffin or JJ Redick - could alter the league's power balance, perhaps significantly.

So Is This Jazz Team
Not that they were beating the Warriors anyway, but was it too much for Utah to ask that they gauge their playoff ceiling at full strength? Obviously yes. After another injury-riddled regular season, they lost both Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward briefly in the first round, and now George Hill against Golden State.

If Hayward bolts this summer (something that very well could happen), we'll be forced to wonder if this team's accomplishments at anywhere near normal health would've been too much to walk away from.

Only Playoff Rondo Can Stop Playoff Rondo

Raise your hand if, at any point in the past three years, you thought that Rajon Rondo's absence could swing a playoff series.

It's no coincidence that the Bulls nosedove as soon as he broke his thumb, unable to soul-read Brad Stevens any longer. After a regular season that bordered on absurdity at times, Chicago is left with a very big playoff "What If", potentially joining a small handful of teams to pull off the 8 vs 1 upset.

Of course Rondo's injury perhaps has given way to other greatness:


Isaiah Thomas is a Superhero
There's really no other way to describe the guy. First off, he's 5-foot-fucking-9, a half-inch shorter than the average american male. Being that small and challenging the World's tallest athletes as unfettered as he does is heroic in its own right.

But more to the point, the guy transcended an unspeakable personal tragedy, got his mouth demolished, and then dropped a historic game that stands out among Boston's historic array of historic games.

While he mourned, a sad number of people inappropriately critiqued his decision to play; to stick by a team that would surely be burnt toast without him. His response has been pure 🔥🔥🔥.

Dwane Casey's Glue Factory Grade
I've been of the not-so-small school for Casey's replacement since the Wizards full-palm slapped Toronto in 2015's first round. Since then, he's oscillated between Coach of the Year contender and thin-ice scrutiny magnet, seemingly doing just enough to not get himself fired.

Yes, the Raptors made the Eastern Conference Finals last year, but they really didn't win two series insofar as Indiana and Miami respectively, lost them. Their odds of returning there seem close to nil after Cleveland drop-kicked them in two straight games; Casey bringing panicked rotations and a seemingly unprepared team.

Casey is what he is: a good regular season coach. Toronto has proven themselves a good regular season team. If they're going to topple LeBron anytime soon - difficult as that may currently seem - they'll need someone else putting the pieces in play. The Raptors just too often seem to be performing below the sum of their parts. They have a good roster with a variety of looks, but Casey isn't great with lineups, or consistently getting the best from his guys - two playoff must-haves.

Kyle Lowry and Demar DeRozan seemingly never play well in the same playoff game. Patrick Patterson is misused. In a league where teams like Golden State, Houston and *cough* Cleveland are succeeding by spacing the floor and moving the ball, the Raptors ran a clogged offensive set and ranked dead last in assists per game this year.

It took the entire internet telling Casey to play Norman Powell against Milkwaukee for him to do so. It marked not only the turning point of that series, but the first time Casey hadn't been outcoached by his opponent in the playoffs. He promptly returned Powell to the bench vs Cleveland, and the same process occurred.

It won't be enough this time, a fitting metaphor for his time on Toronto's bench.

The Switch Has Flipped
Despite Casey's flaws as a coach, it's slightly unfair when you're pitted against a team dropping 119 ppg, while shooting 50% from beyond the arc.

Even through their defensive meltdown over the past few months, it seemed mostly as a "when" not "if" matter that the Cavs would channel a higher level and begin completely bushwhacking their way through the East. After a disconcerting Indiana series that easily could've gone six games, they've made the Raptors look like the Toon Squad's first half vs. the Monstars.

Small sample size be damned, the Cavs look like they've snapped out of it.


RIP GNG

As a Grizzlies fan, watching the first round was painfully bittersweet. 

The Spurs had swept Memphis in both of their last two playoff meetings; this one seemed destined for a third when Grindfather Tony Allen went down. But after "Take That For Data" went viral, Memphis put up the gulliest of fights, taking two from the Spurs, including an overtime thriller in what was likely Kawhi Leonard's best game ever. 


At the same time, it was merely a spirited final effort from a dying beast. The rugged, physical, underdogging Grit N Grind era that defined the Grizzlies through their rise to NBA prominence (endearing them deeply to the blue-collar city of Memphis) is dying out. Fiz Markee throwing Zach Randolph back into the starting lineup for one last run was a fitting touch. 


The truth is Memphis is too old, too unathletic, too shallow, and can't shoot well enough. They have holes fill, but they're financially strained after lighting $94 million on fire in giving it to Chandler Parsons. They'd ideally have younger, cheaper players waiting in the wings, but it's unclear if any of their prospects beyond JaMychal Green and perhaps James Ennis are ready for bigger roles. 


Roster changes seem almost imminent, and whether the tweaks are minor or major, they seem likely to be a shift away from Grit N Grind as the Grizzlies try and survive a changing climate. So a toast to GNG, it was a fun ride. 

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 2: The West

With the East Preview of out the way, it's time to shift scenery over the Wild Wild West, which, in contrast to its reputation, doesn't look all that wild anymore.

Time was, the entire conference was a stacked bloodbath of potential contenders, with upset potential throughout the playoffs. Now the West's depth has withered like a sun-dried tomato, leaving few established threats and a very distinct caste hierarchy:

The Warriors are unquestionably the conference's best team. Only the Spurs and Clippers have any hope of nabbing the 2nd seed, and beneath them just the Jazz, Grizzlies and Blazers project safely as playoff teams. After that, it's a murky quagmire of on-the-fly rebuilds, precocious upstarts, and identity crises.

While the West's bottom-feeders still have marginally brighter collective futures than their East counterparts, the parity between conferences seems to be inching back towards an equilibrium. How does it all stack up? Let's dive in:

LOTTERY LOCKS:

15. Los Angeles Lakers

After a few years of wayward purgatory at the end of Kobe's career, the Lakers can at least begin to steer themselves in the right direction. While they're free of Bryant's lifetime achievement salary and have a potential future core in the Russell-Ingram-Randle triad, they're still at least a season away from beginning their ascent.

In the meantime they're at least decent fodder for jokes about Timofey Mozgov's contract, the Russell/Nick Young dynamic, and how long it will take Luol Deng to regret signing here.

14. Sacramento Kings
xTo nobody's surprise, the Kings are yet again a mess heading into this year. Instead of building around All-Star DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento seems more likely to trade him, with 1/3 of their roster now centers, and Cousins in near-constant malaise when the franchise does dumb shit like this, and this.

Even with Boogie, the Kings are likely lotto-fodder, but with both he and Rudy Gay swirling around in trade rumors, there could be a total bottom-out on the way in Sac-Town. Hopefully they use the upcoming lottery pick more wisely.

12. New Orleans Pelicans
xNot a wicked franchise arc for the Pels right now. Their pseudo-attempt at Win Now Mode topped out at the 8-seed, and now they're left with an ambiguous bottom-rung roster.

Anthony Davis is obviously awesome, but becoming somewhat of a lock to miss ~15 games every year. Jrue Holiday's indefinite absence leaves their point guard situation (an E'Twaun Moore/Norris Cole/Langston Galloway smorgasbord) in heavy flux. The Pels employ three terrible centers, are relying on a few guys literally playing for their careers, and have the Solomon Hill contract to answer for. Don't expect it to happen this year.

13. Phoenix Suns


The Suns' backcourt is pretty stacked. Shifting Brandon Knight to the bench is a natural adjustment that will allow him to see minutes at both guard spots against bench units he'll completely torch.

The frontcourt however remains a mystery, but has breakout potential. Alex Len's infuriating inconsistency should benefit from a year of health, while Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss look like impact rookies. Either way there will be growing pains, and not much stock in a playoff run for another season at least.

11. Denver Nuggets

Denver's a tough team to peg this year. Heavy on mid-level assets, they've been involved in rumored blockbusters for years, but have never managed to work out a deal for a star with their myriad Kenneth Faried packages.

That could change this year, with Jusuf Nurkic very expendable, up-and-comers Will Barton and Gary Harris showing out (with lotto pick Jamal Murray waiting in the wings), and Danilo Gallinari coming off a career year if a Denver finds someone willing to gamble on his health. Really their only untouchable is Nikola Jokic, which leaves them open to many possibilities.

This roster could look very different even a couple months from now, but even as constructed, they have a balanced attack of good-to-elite shooters surrounding one of the league's best young big men. They project as a below-average defensive unit (hence why they're here) but Denver should be at worst a fun League Pass watch.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

10. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs' long string of shitty free agency luck kept spooling this summer when they settled for maxing out Harrison Barnes in perhaps the summer's most  egregious money-bonfire. Swiping Andrew Bogut from the Warriors' Durant Sale was a pleasant surprise (marking the first time the Mavs' summer center plans didn't get fucked over), but likely won't be enough to keep their playoff streak alive.

The Mavs have depth issues across the board, and will be able to rely less and less on Dirk Nowitzki's German-engineered longevity. Their fate lies in the hands of several past-their-prime guys most of whom have spotty health records. Unless Harrison Barnes is worth every dollar (and the safe bet is that he isn't), Dallas will be facing a transition very soon.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

Welcome to Team Next. Now show-run by an elite basketball mind, and with the NBA's best stable of young talent, the Wolves are primed for a major leap this year.

Having Tom Thibodeau calling the shots instead of glorified assistant Sam Mitchell will mean all the difference in the World, especially to a young troupe of athletic legs with lots to learn and stamina to keep up with Thibs' rigor.

Most of their roster has upside to realize, Karl-Anthony Towns is an MVP-in-waiting, and Kris Dunn looks like arguably this year's most impactful rookie. Even just natural growth and continuity would hugely benefit these guys, but such a significant coaching upgrade will be like an HGH boost. They're doubtful to actually crack the playoffs, but don't expect them to be far off.

8. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are going to be an awesome League Pass team this year. Mike D'Antoni and a noticeable shooting upgrade are going to usher in a new era of high-paced :07 Seconds or Less offensive artistry.

Houston will rack up points, which is good, because they couldn't defend a parked Vespa. They have leaks everywhere on D, starting two minus defenders (Nene, Eric Gordon) and two abhorrently bad ones (Ryan Anderson, and perennial YouTube legend James Harden). With all the easy paths to the hoop, their only rim protector (Clint Capela) has awareness and positioning issues. Plus their best defender (Patrick Beverly) is missing the season's first 6 weeks.

Harden's new purely-cosmetic point guard designation will be plentiful with so much spacing around him, but Anderson, Gordon and Trevor Ariza aren't spreed demons; teams with long, switchable perimeter D (and there's more of them every year) could force turnovers and contested shots easily.

7. Oklahoma City Thunder

So ya, Kevin Durant's obviously gone. That sucks. But Russell Westbrook didn't bolt, and he's about to put on a Man On Fire act unlike any we've seen. That alone should carry OKC to the playoffs, in a West middle tier that suddenly isn't as fearsome anymore.

While Westbrook is one-man instant offense, the Thunder's spacing looks very weird, with little outside shooting and a Kanter/Adams post combo with maybe 6-8 feet of range. OKC is also depressingly thin at the 3 and 4, making Durant's absence all the more noticeable. Vic Oladipo will benefit nicely from Westbrook sucking defenses in like a Dyson - routinely creating open looks than he ever would've had in Orlando - but the Thunder are one of the NBA's ideal lane-clogging targets for opposing D.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES:

6. Portland Trailblazers

Portland shocked the NBA last year with an unlikely ascent into the West playoffs after losing five of their six best players over the summer of 2015. While there's no denying they blew away expectations as a team, the Blazers' results definitely benefited from several teams (namely the two that follow here) dealing with perpetual roster-wide injury. Thus, while they're a better team on paper, they'll have a tough time holding their footing.

That said, the Blazers have lots of potential upside to realize in their weirdly-effective frontcourt, and a more physical, athletic presence after committing grand larceny with the Festus Ezeli deal. Evan Turner is perhaps the NBA's best Swiss Army Knife 6th Man, and should thrive in an identical role and similar system to his Boston gig. Slotting Portland here kinda has to be done, but feels very much like their floor, especially if Allen Crabbe's worth anywhere even in the same area code as his new contract.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

RIP Grit N Grind. With Chandler Parsons' acquisition and Zach Randolph's bench demotion, the Grizz have finally drank the potion and zagged with most of the NBA into a space-and-pace system. Parsons, when healthy, is precisely the kind of player the Grizzlies have longed for, but the "when healthy" part highlights a major concern for Memphis.

As much as Randolph and Tony Allen are still cornerstones of the Grizzlies' culture and identity, their on-court makeup rests heavily on Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Parsons, all of whom are coming off serious injuries with unclear long-term implications. It's supremely unlikely Memphis' roster is hit as hard by injury as last year, but a fully healthy season would be a pleasant surprise.

4. Utah Jazz

The Jazz have "leap" written all over them this year. Where to start? First off they have a stable
chocked full of young talent, any of whom could take large personal strides.

They also now start an average point guard, which would seem like a ho-hum statement if Utah's PG situation wasn't perhaps the single most deficient position in the NBA last year. As a bonus, they return Dante Exum from injury, embarking on one of the league's more intriguing dice-rolls at backup.

Utah, like Memphis, were also hit hard by injuries last year. While Gordon Hayward hasn't gotten them off to a great start they're even less likely than the Grizz to see such misfortune repeat itself. With fewer lineup shifts, Utah's young core will benefit from continuity and collective growth. They also made a couple great on-the-low offseason signings in Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, who provide veteran presence and are still capable on-court contributors.

Add it all up and it's hard to see Utah not leaping at least several spots up this season's West standings.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

One of the NBA's most frustrating teams, the Clippers seem stubbornly bent on maxing out as a 3-seed and getting knocked out in the 2nd round every year. They have the pieces - one of the NBA's best Big-3s surrounded by a passable 2-way supporting cast and coached by one of the best - but the health, stamina, focus and overall desire are all question marks.

You pretty much know what you're getting with this virtually-unchanged roster. If they can string together a healthy season from both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, they could challenge San Antonio for the 2-seed, but overall their potential range is very narrow. Only a serious injury will drop them out the West's top-3, and only a miracle will get them past the Spurs or Warriors in the spring.

2. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs without Tim Duncan is going to be weird; like a peanut butter sandwich without the jam, Meth without Red, or Dany Targaryen without dragons. As the Spurs shift into a new era, they've found themselves a decent placeholder at center in Pau Gasol (albeit one who's far worse defensively).

There are several questions surrounding the Spurs' season, including how much Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have left in the tank, the prospects of trading LaMarcus Aldridge, and how severe Pop's separation anxiety from Duncan will be.

Regardless, the Spurs set a franchise record for wins last year with Duncan in a cameo role, and rock by far the league's most stable system and pedigree. They're as safe a bet for the West's #2 seed as any team in any spot league-wide.

1. Golden State Warriors 
They won 73 games last year, then got Kevin Durant. What else do you want.



Stay tuned for Part 3: The Hardware, dropping any day now....

Friday, October 23, 2015

Banter's 2015-16 NBA Preview: Part II - The West


We got the (L)East out of the way, now time to move on to the Bestern Conference:

15- Portland Trailblazers
There's bad offseasons, and then there's what happened to the Blazers this summer, which ranks somewhere between the Ashley Madison hack and Fantastic 4 among 2015's biggest mishaps. Losing five of your six best players in two weeks is something an NBA team rarely has to cope with, but the Blazers got dealt a "Rebuild" card about as swiftly as can be done.

Damian Lillard will be on the warpath, and that itself might be enough to win Portland a few games. They have the faint potential to form a passable nucleus of the young talent they've scrapped together, but guys like CJ McCollum and (especially) Noah Vonleh are unproven and won't keep Portland from freefalling this year.

14- Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are just a complete nightmare right now. Having Lou Williams, Nick Young and Kobe on the same roster is like playing Hungry Hungry Hippos with one ball. Their opening night starting frontcourt are two of the most washed "name" players in the NBA. Ron Artest is on their team again.

I guess it's the Lakers, so the season prognosis could easily include a Brandon Bass/Nicki Minaj TMZ sex scandal, Jordan Clarkson assault arrest, or rehab for Ryan Kelly. At least all indications are that D'Angelo Russell is the truth, and Julius Randle will (let's hope) play more this year, which saves the Lakers from being totally forsaken.

13- Minnesota Timberwolves

There's plenty to be excited about for Minnesota fans - the most since Kevin Garnett first burst onto the scene. They've got an enviable troupe of young upstarts, led by back-to-back #1 picks, at least one of whom appears to be a home run in the making. But there will definitely be growing pains, almost inevitably a Ricky Rubio injury to weather, and Flip Saunders' difficult cancer battle looming over the season.

Nik Pekovic and Kevin Martin linger as lame-duck cap-cloggers (though Martin's current deal is an absolute steal for Minny), while the Wolves develop some kind of an identity from their youth movement. They could be a couple spots better if Wiggins leaps and Karl Towns justifies the hype, but they're a few years short of becoming a force in a conference this deep.

12- Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have been the NBA's official Team Purgatory for years now. Stuck somewhere in that awkward phase between contending and rebuilding, they seem stubbornly bent on pushing against the major championship-or-bust trend sweeping the league.

This year should be no exception; don't count on Denver to challenge for either the playoffs or best lottery odds, as they race to the lower-tier of mediocrity. Losing their best player certainly won't help, as Ty Lawson's alcohol antics drove him in a swerving Benz out of town. As such, the Nuggets will be leaning heavily on highly-touted rookie Emmanel Mudiay to get touches for their shooters (Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler) and create for their offensively-limited bigs (JJ Hickson, Kenneth Faried). Mudiay has the makings of a strong pro, but no doubt will be a downgrade at first from Lawson's lethal slash-and-kick filleting. The Nuggets should get a strong season from Gallo, after he went ape-shit down the stretch last year and appears to be every bit healthy.

The presence of Mike Malone will definitely benefit this squad though; a great coach (anyone who breaks through with DeMarcus Cousins deserves a 30 for 30) who got waxed in brutally comical fashion in Sacramento. Good to see him back on the sidelines, but this team needs far more than just a strong coach in their long-term plot.


11- Sacramento Kings

This season's Sacramento Kings have the potential to be one the most fascinating teams in NBA
history.

They are Russian Roulette in the form of a professional sports franchise; so many possible outcomes - not many of them good. We could start with George Karl and the aforementioned DeMarcus Cousins; a union of old-school coach and volatile superstar that (to the surprise of absolutely nobody) is already being massaged in the media. Then add in Rajon Rondo, the petulant would-be star who wore out his welcome with two teams in the past 9 months and is playing very much for himself this season.

Those two variables alone are enough to cause intrigue, but then consider that Vivek Ranadive -probably the most unpredictable owner in the NBA - is calling the shots, Getcha popcorn.

10- Dallas Mavericks
So this wasn't exactly a good offseason for Mark Cuban and the Mavs.

Tyson Chandler is gone. So is Monta Ellis. As too is DeAndre Jordan (too soon?), and even an en-vogue asset like Al-Farouq Aminu. The players Dallas is counting on to fill the void are a rag-tag bunch of has-beens (Sam Dalembert, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, etc), a solid 3rd big (Zaza Pachulia) and the immortal JaVale McGee. Their best acquisition - and most costly gamble - just came off achilles surgery. Their lone star (it is Texas) is 37 years old. These are facts.

Dallas rode Nowitzki to a truly outstanding run over the past 15 years, but this might be the end of the line for a team that's missed the playoffs just once since 2000.

9- Phoenix Suns
It was a (politely put) interesting summer in Phoenix; one marked by a series of Markieff Morris hissy-fits and the quizzical decision to ink Tyson Chandler. Chandler's an elite defender and efficient scorer - definitely a guy you want on your team - but his arrival stymies the burgeoning Alex Len, and reeks of a "contend now" mentality; something the Suns are nowhere near.

Though Morris is putting up the "All is Good" front with the media, Ryan McDonough might be strongarmed into trading him sub-value as he was with Goran Dragic last February. Phoenix's backcourt is dangerous (especially against unathletic guards), but they have a lot of question marks on the wing and at the four (which is basically a wing position now anyway). If Mirza Teletovic fits well and Morris avoids doing Morris things, Phoenix could challenge for the playoffs, but count on this one turning out like their last two efforts.

8- Utah Jazz
If there's a walking argument for the value of a good rim protector, it's Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz. Last season, the Jazz were a lottery-bound defensive flounder with Enes Kanter - a porous defender - playing most of their center minutes.

With Gobert's ability demanding a starting spot, and the unhappy Kanter demanding a trade, Utah's play was obvious. They went 19-10 post-trade with the Rude Boi starting, and became one of the NBA's best defensive teams overnight. The Dante Exum injury is an unfortunate wrench in their plans (Trey Burke's not exactly an ideal starting PG), but everything else about this team - from Alec Burks' return, to continued growth from pretty much their whole young lineup (especially the recently-23 Gobert) is trending up.

Dallas and Portland's summers of despair left voids in the exclusive West Playoff Club. With OKC certainly taking one, the Jazz look like a safe bet to nab the last spot.

7- New Orleans Pelicans

Team Brow is on the come-up, but unfortunately for them, the West is more stacked with legit
contenders right now than any conference ever.

This is basically an identical roster to the one the Pelicans closed shop with in early May, but a few things have shifted: 1) they'll (very likely) be healthier than last year, 2) they'll be coached by someone who actually knows what's happening on offense, and most importantly 3) they'll get another year of frightening development from Anthony Davis.

Once unleashed in Alvin Gentry's full-throttle system, Davis is likely to cause the type of devastation normally reserved by violent typhoons for small Pacific islands. Davis - the NBA's PER leader - was just 26th in usage rate last year (behind the likes of Marreese Speights and Ish Smith). You can bet that number will go up significantly, but don't count on the Pelicans to crash the West's VIP party just yet.

6- Memphis Grizzlies
It sucks for me to have to demote my favorite team after they got better this summer (convincing Brandan Wright to sign for as little as he did was a shameless pillage), but such is life in the West these days.

You know what you're getting with Memphis: a gruesomely slow, rugged game; physical harassment from Tony Allen, physical abuse from Zach Randolph, methodically efficient two-way surgery from Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, and fewer team defense leaks than you'll find in pretty much any lineup. Memphis will make you struggle to score, but the question remains if they won't give themselves the same trouble.

Jeff Green failed to put them over the hump offensively last season, and while the bench got grittier this summer (Wright and the always-bout-it Matt Barnes) the Grizzle need shooters, and guys who can contrast the #GNG mentality offensively, in order to get to the next level.

5- Houston Rockets
The Rockets have drawn an unusual amount of on-the-low hate from both pundits and fans who
shame their plain-oatmeal offense, James Harden's alleged flopping, and just about everything Dwight Howard does.

Entangled partly in that sentiment has been Houston's exclusion among the trendy "contenders" heading into '15-'16, even after this team snatched the 2-seed as a walking ICU, then made the West Finals. Adding Ty Lawson was huge (especially given his crisis-sale price tag), giving them another uptempo playmaker who's highly adept at getting into the paint the creating open looks - the maxim Houston's offense thrives upon.

Losing Josh Smith is negligible with Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas both returning healthy; the Rockets can surely count on better continuity this season with fewer bodies in and out of service. It's hard to keep them out of the top four; I feel like I might be selling Clutch City short. But then there's...

4- OKC Thunder

I could probably just write the words "Kevin Durant" here and be done with it, but we'll take a closer look: OKC has a sneakily-deep rotation, offset only slightly by the presence of defensive duds (Enes Kanter) and delusional pseudo-stars (Dion Waiters).

While Kanter is an obvious liability on D, he also shares the paint with arguably the NBA's most feared help defender (Serge Ibaka); a slight deterrent against picking on him too much. DJ Augustin has proven himself a high-energy pocket rocket of a backup PG; one who won't give 2nd units much of a breather when Durant or Russ Westbrook briefly hits the bench. Nick Collison is a crafty vet on a great contract, Steven Adams is a resolute backup big, and Anthony Morrow is about as dangerous a spacing threat as someone not named "Kyle Korver" can be.

Which is to say this team is more than just Durant and Westbrook, though those two on their own could probably carry the squad. Westy's Man on Fire  act will be much tougher to contain with a former MVP sharing the defense's attention, and a coach who can actually draw up plays on the Thunder bench. This could very well be their last shot at a title run with Durant - at the very least they could use a clean bill of health for once.

3- L.A. Clippers
The Clippers' offseason could be described in many ways, but "entertaining" is probably the most accurate way to sum it up. Not only did we get witness the Passion of the DeAndre unfold in real time, but saw the Clippers upgrade their pathetically shallow roster in the most hilarious ways possible.

First is the Paul Pierce/Doc Rivers dynamic, reuniting two infamous Ubuntu veterans who just happen to have two of the highest villain profiles in the NBA right now; they'll feed off each other like vinegar and baking soda. Then there's the Josh Smith signing, tossing a possibly-reformed knucklehead into a delicate chemistry mix (Chris Paul's temper is shorter than Earl Boykins, and this franchise is absolutely feeling the "Win Now" burn). As if Smith weren't enough, they nabbed a never-reformed knucklehead in Lance Stephenson, setting up two certainties: 1) Rivers will fully earn the coaching portion of his salary this year, and 2) Lance/CP3 will be Banter's official Buddy Comedy for the upcoming season.

But see the thing is, unless Stephenson completely implodes (he won't have nearly as much room to wreak havoc as he did in Charlotte), these moves make the Clippers a much more rounded, frightening team. They might finally have the depth around their stars to crack the West, but there are a couple minor issues in their way:

2- San Antonio Spurs
So the Spurs have LaMarcus Aldridge now. That's a thing that happened. Essentially giving up Tiago Splitter (a fine asset, but not a fringe-MVP), RC Buford and Gregg Popvich pulled a coup that forces the whole NBA to take notice that they weren't finished. But these are the Spurs, of course they aren't.

As Aldridge assumes the go-to offensive duty, he'll have reigning DPOY Kawhi Leonard flanking him with omnipresent brilliance and the still-Big 3 of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili settling in as the sickest role-player corps in modern NBA history. The Alamo has just a stupid amount of depth up front, with Boris Diaw, David West, and Matt Bonner also seeing minutes. This is contrasted by the backcourt losses of Cory Joseph and Marco Belinelli, whom the Spurs will amply replace because, well, they're the Spurs.

Leonard and Danny Green are locked up long-term on very thrifty deals, putting San Antonio in great position once their leadership fully recycles and Duncan & Co. retire. But forget the future, this team is going to be a dynamite-spiked wrecking ball this year. Just keep clear of the devastation.

1- Golden State Warriors

Even in what could prove to be the most top-heavy conference in NBA history, you still have to give Golden State the benefit of any doubt. They blitzed the league at a historic level for 82 games, then marched authoritatively to a title. They made no major moves because they didn't have to (essentially turning the book-bloating David Lee into bargain-basement Jason Thompson), and even with the Spurs' jackpot summer, figure to be the better regular season team.

While San Antonio adjusts to their new centrifugal figure and rests their aging stars, the Warriors will benefit from the continuity (<--NBA buzzword alert) and swagger of being an unaltered squad, not to mention the champs. They're deep, and can cause matchup nightmares for just about any type of lineup, making them perfectly suited for the 82-game long haul.

A summer of hearing how the Spurs are now the favorites, and the Dubs somehow "got lucky" (c. Doc Rivers) last spring, has provided a little extra motivation to the title defense. These guys are pissed. And they're more than capable of taking out some frustration.

I'll be wrapping things up with Part III (The Hardware) next Monday, get involved.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Free Agency Power Rankings


So a couple weeks ago, all hell broke loose in the NBA, as the annual bonanza known as Free Agency kicked off and stuffed a massive amount of landscape-shifting into a several-day window.

In a dizzying flurry of player movement and dollar signs, franchises hit homes runs, stayed the course, confounded us, and whiffed miserably. With salaries bloating under the impeding TV cash influx, money was being spewed away like never before, but with unprecedented cap room and a very "Contend or Bust" mentality about NBA front offices, there would be plenty of risk-taking by someone either way.

What matters is how calculated those risks are, and how likely they are to improve a team. Some front offices are taking active steps, while others seem to just be spending money for the fuck of it.

The implications of the past few wekks are heavy for both franchises and players, and are scattered everywhere from dreams-come-true, to waking nightmares. Though the full stories won't play out for some time, here's a look at who's winning right now; the Free Agency Power Rankings:

Wherever Last Is. Portland Trailblazers/Damian Lillard
Shit just got real in RIP City. Six months ago, this team had an outside chance at the NBA title. Then in a single week, they lost three starters, including their best player, for nothing. Trading Nic Batum for Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh was a wise preemptive move that freed up money and gave them a potential prospect, but Vonleh's a long way off, and didn't show much as a rookie.

The bottom line's a devastating blow to the Blazers, to Portland, and to Lillard, who must be feeling like a bit of a sucka right now, entering his prime while locked into a difficult rebuilding project. For any star, let alone one as competitive as Dame Dash, being completely deserted like this is a rare and deflating predicament in the NBA.

340. Sacramento Kings
There's a scene in The Dark Knight where Alfred tries to allegorically decipher the Joker's addiction to senseless chaos. He surmises that some evil has no desire for personal gain; it's twisted enough to "watch the World burn" and be content.

Of course, this is in reference to a deranged comic book villain who commits random acts of mass terror, but Alfred could just as easily be talking about Vivek Ranadive, which is all you really need to know about the Kings' predicament.

267. Carmelo Anthony

Oops. That Big Apple money starting to not sit too well.

Now that the Knicks are over a year into the Phil Experience and still pitiful, the grass is starting to look far greener in other pastures. Chicago in particular would've been an awesome fit, or really anywhere that wasn't mired in a high-profile, long-term rebuilding project.

Melo now has two options: stay the course and waste what's left of your prime in the Lottery, or play the difficult, self-defacing Trade Demand Card. Neither is a great option, and Anthony can only blame himself. Unfortunately, all the millions in the World can't buy him the one ring he still hasn't come close to.

204. Dallas Mavericks
There's plenty of takes one can have on the delirious 24 hour love triangle that DeAndre Jordan just locked the Mavs and Clippers into, but when all was settled, there was one undeniable reality: Jordan won't be in Dallas next year.

You can say whatever you want about Jordan's integrity, the Clippers' tactics, Blake Griffin's mediation skills, Chandler Parsons' Twitter game, Chris Broussard's 'sources', Wesley Matthew's ankle, or the nuclear bomb Mark Cuban is about to detonate. The Mavs had Jordan - one of the NBA's best centers regardless of free-throw woes - and now they don't. And that really sucks for them.

151. Los Angeles Lakers
This franchise is just completely soulless right now.


As if they somehow felt short on manic volume-chuckers, they went out and added Lou Williams to the Kobe/Swaggy P brigade, a pure cap-space bonfire if ever there was one.

They traded for Roy Hibbert, and while a second-round pick wasn't a huge price, they're now forking over $15 mil to a guy who's an absolute lummox on offense, and might not be the best fit defensively in LA. Hibbert's an elite rim-protector, but he's also not very quick; he'll struggle to beat attackers (and there will be plenty of them with so much rancid D on the Lakers' perimeter) to spots and use his "Verticality" to his advantage.

They may not be paying Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer a combined $30mil+ anymore this year, but they're paying Kobe almost that much as he continues to lurk over the franchise like a creepy ex driving by slowly at 12:57 am.

The Lakers lack both talent and cohesion, and have begun the post-Jerry era in stunning irrelevancy. They fanned on free agency, and still have a coach who thinks shooting 3's is a bad idea. At least they can chase the Top-3 Lottery status that will save them from shipping a pick to Philly, and hope to pair D'Angelo Russell with another building block,

119. Rajon Rondo
He's essentially looking to bank his future on this one season, not wanting to sign long-term when his value's at an all-time low. Problem for Rondo is that he disgraced himself so badly in Dallas that nobody wanted him, so he was left to sign with quite possibly the most dysfunctional team in the NBA, where he'll be dealing with an off-kilter owner, a conflict-oriented coach, and perhaps the single most volatile star in the NBA. Sounds like exactly the right place for a fresh start.

98. Atlanta Hawks

Between losing DeMarre Carroll and dealing with the reality that their acceptance of Tiago Splitter's salary allowed the Spurs to lay an absolute gamebreaker on the rest of the NBA, the summer's gotten off to an even rockier star than last regular season.

74. Arron Afflalo
Afflalo has two reasons to be unhappy right now: 1. Even with this salary cap boom, he barely got any kind of pay spike, and 2. He now plays for the Knicks. Enjoy being an on-the-low media target and having Carmelo look you off all year.



59. Phoenix Suns

Not really sure what they're doing here, but there's no question that they're still semi-reeling from
losing Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas for a gumball machine and a pair of Pumas back in February. Now, they've sunk long-term bucks into an aging center to stifle the growth of Alex Len, who once seemed like The Future. After what this team did the last time they had preseason doubters, it's hard to write them off, but their gameplan seems to be going in different directions at once.

46. Brandan Wright
A textbook win/lose. Sure, he's now got a secure role on a fringe contender after being passed around the NBA like frathouse bong last season. But, dude... fire your agent. 3 years/$18 mil??
Aron Baynes got more skrill than you.

34. Indiana Pacers
Losing Hibbert is a wash for Indiana, as his plodding, inconsistent play was becoming less and less a part of what helped them win. Essentially trading centers with L.A, the Pacers then signed Jordan Hill, giving them center of similar effectiveness at a third of the cost. Adding Monta Ellis however is a huge upgrade over Rodney Stuckey; one that should offset any offensive punch lost with David West's departure.

25. Cleveland Cavaliers
Even with Tristan Thompson's increasingly-awkward lingering no-deal, this has been a win so far for Cleveland. Even though he's wildly underutilized on the Cavs, locking up Kevin Love has to feel nice after a season of widespread tension between their de facto GM and the Dude They Just Traded Andrew Wiggins For.

18. Memphis Grizzlies
Brandan Wright is a large addition for them at a great value. Locking up Marc Gasol is also massive, though there was a roughly .00015% chance he was ever leaving anyway.

12. Dwyane Wade
See, I get that Wade's an icon in Miami, and the cap increase, yadda yadda. But last year the guy missed a quarter of the season - one in which he was already slightly overpaid at $15mil - as his body continued to go the way of an NFL running back. He had one of his worst-shooting campaigns ever, and turned the ball over more, in fewer minutes, than he has this decade. Dude opted out and got a 33% raise to stay well-rested this year with the deepest team he's ever played on. And is still married to Gabrielle Union. Life's nice in South Beach.

10. Reggie Jackson
He's got his money and alpha-status in Detroit's backcourt on what might just be a Playoff team this year. Hope he's happy now.

9. Toronto Raptors

First off, Landry Fields came off the books. Immediate win.

The Raptors nailed the first signing of the Free Agency period, snaring DeMarre Carroll from the Hawks after a season in which he was subtly one of the NBA's most effective players. His ability to produce on a team whose ball movement is nowhere close to as good as Atlanta's will dictate whether his contract's a bargain or a burden, but it can't possibly go worse than some of Toronto's previous cap space blunders. He's a large upgrade over Terrence Ross' inconsistency on both sides of the ball.

Picking up Bismack Biyombo was a nice move at a good price; while he's abhorrent offensively, he's among the NBA's better paint defenders and will give the Raptors a much-needed deterrent against attackers. Cory Joseph is also a great defender (and underrated offensive player) who will help bolster this team's identity on D, after too many soft spots exposed them last season.

There's no question the Raps will miss Amir Johnson's length and hustle, but Patrick Patterson just might be ready for an increased role, and at the very least is a high-IQ guy who bangs the glass and space the floor very well. But while losing the reigning Sixth Man of the Year might seem like a deep cut, Lou Williams was an overrated chucked who ruined any semblance of team offense, complemented by defense ranging from "casual" to "absent".

The Raptors may not have taken a full step forward yet, but after a year in which their offensive punch was repeatedly betrayed by their defensive incompetence, they're at least stepping in the right direction.

8. Houston Rockets

They kept Corey Brewer at a reasonable price, signed Patrick Beverley to one of the best deals in the NBA, and won't be hit that badly by the Josh Smith departure with Motiejunas returning. Stealing the embattled Ty Lawson from the Nuggets was yet another savvy asset pillage that gives the Rockets one of the NBA's most dangerous backcourts. Morey wins again; maybe his team might someday.

7. Milwaukee Bucks

Step one was locking up Khris Middleton, one of the most subtly sought-after players on the market.
He was a vital part of what the Bucks did last year, and will provide plenty of incentive for defenses not to double down on...

Greg Monroe Baby! What a home-run signing for a team without a go-to scorer or any semblance of inside offensive presence. Moose will likely flourish in a system with more spacing than he ever had in Detroit (Michael Carter-Williams notwithstanding), no longer forced to share touches with Josh Smith and Andre Drummond.

Add him to a unit that's welcoming back Jabari Parker and will get to reach deeper into Giannis Antetokounmpo's complex toolbox, and you probably have a dark horse East contender if all breaks right.

6. "3 & D" Guys
They're the trendiest commodity in the NBA at the perfect time: gritty defenders who can cover a variety of matchups, also provide that most coveted of offensive assets: spacing. Two-way play has never been more easily quantified (and thus extrapolated to the realms of contract negotiations), so guys like the aforementioned DeMarre Carroll and Khris Middleton are getting PAID.

5. Jimmy Butler
Very seldom does turning down big guaranteed money work out for players as well as it did for Butler, who told the Bulls' cheapskate ownership to fuck off at 4 yrs/$44mil last October, then proceeded to win the NBA's Most Improved Player award. Because Jimmy Butler's either both smart or very well-represented, and also extremely good at basketball, he's also now $50 million richer than he would've been behind Door A.

4. Draymond Green
Now both has a championship, and makes over ten times as much money as he did last season. Talk about a Contract Year.


3. New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans may have just inked the largest contract in NBA history, but if there was a single player
in the league right now who you'd wanted secured long-term, they now have him.

Anthony Davis is going to be a destructive force of incomprehensible magnitude for the next decade. He's now given the Pelicans five of the best years of his career to build a winner around him, after a spirited run to the 8-seed. They've started by hiring a real coach (sorry Monty), and while Eric Gordon understandably exercised his gaudy $15-milly player option, they have room to grow with very little money tied up long-term and the salary cap exploding imminently.

But let's not overthink anything, this is really simple: The Brow is yours for at least the next five years. Twenty-nine teams are envious.

2. Los Angeles Clippers

The DeAndre Jordan heist was perhaps the greatest free agency coup in recent memory; cornering the
quasi-star center in his house and literally locking the team's braintrust in a room with him until he re-signed. You can crow all you want about the so-called 'ethics' of the whole thing but there's no arguing its result is absolutely massive for the Clippers.

That alone is worth a high spot on this summer's rankings, but L.A. also shored up their painfully shallow roster with the additions of Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson, and most recently Josh Smith. Pierce will bring poise, swag, and infinitely better spacing than Matt Barnes; even in his career's twilight, he's still got it. While Stephenson and (to a lesser extent) Smith can be wild cards, both will be massive upgrades over anything the Clippers had coming off the bench last year, even if there are occasional headaches.

The Clippers beat the Spurs in an epic first-round battle with Austin Rivers as a 6th Man, which is basically to say they did it with no bench whatsoever. If Smith and Stephenson don't carelessly implode in their new roles (and they're less likely to do it under a no-bullshit coach like Doc Rivers), this roster will be a nightmare for opponents and definite contender.


1. The Dark Side of the Alamo

The Spurs always win. It's just what they do. Even when they lost in the playoffs this year, they went down in one of the greatest displays of defeat ever.

So they feel they need to level up - how do they respond? Oh you know, just by scooping the best fucking player available; a fringe MVP-type who will allow Tim Duncan to pick his spots on offense and Kawhi Leonard to blossom in the Pippen role he's best suited for (LaMarcus Aldridge, not Jimmer Fredette).

Speaking of Kawhi, they inked him and Danny Green to bargain-basement deals, while convincing David West to sign with them for the veteran's minimum; bolstering what was already one of the NBA's deepest rosters (and making Ray Allen eat his words).

They should be favored to notch another title next year, though given that the Spurs always win, that shouldn't really surprise anyone.