Banter's 2019 NBA Awards

Welcome, one and all to Basketball Banter's 2019 NBA Awards!

Obviously, it's been a while since I've posted on here; my last Banter post was 2018's Awards, exactly a year ago today.

I unfortunately have less time for writing these days, and that quota is largely devoted to my Memphis Grizzlies work for Beale Street Bears. But I felt inspired to knock the dust off my Blogger account this week, and toss my 2019 awards picks (however insignificantly) into the internet zeitgeist.

Let's get into it (stats accurate as of 04/10):

All-Rookie Teams
First Team: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander


Second Team: Jaren Jackson Jr, Mitchell Robinson, Collin Sexton, Kevin Knox, Kevin Huerter

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: LUKA DONCIC
With his soggy build and lack of athleticism, many pundits questioned Doncic's NBA impact, despite him having dominated the World's second-best basketball league as a teenager.

It took just games for him to silence even the staunchest critics. Within weeks he was an internet phenomenon. By December, he was being compared to the best rookies ever. And by 2019, he was a nightly threat to drop a triple-double.

The end result is an absolute romp of a debut: 21.2/7.8/6.0. For context, Doncic averaged more points, assists and rebounds than LeBron James did in his rookie year, despite playing 23% fewer minutes per game. He also topped Rookie LeBron in most major advanced metrics.

Doncic was a one-man offense; converting on high-difficulty shots and passes time and again. His pedigree and instant success denied him any early grace period where a rookie is taken lightly. Guys went at him from the get.

The Rookie 20/5/5 Club is pretty exclusive: Doncic and James join Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and for some reason Tyreke Evans. Unless we're being guided by the outlier, this is indicative of a generational talent.

Much respect to Trae Young, who went completely nuclear over the season's second half, triggering a surprisingly-competent Hawks turnaround (despite being the NBA's literal worst defender). Notwithstanding, Doncic's rookie season was one of the finest on record; pure piff from the first tip.

Regards To: Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley


SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: MONTREZL HARRELL

Ironically, this award mainly comes down to two teammates. Un-ironically, they both hail from the scrappy, star-less overachievers that were this season's Los Angeles Clippers.

Lou Williams is a two-time former 6MOY winner, who dropped 20/game this year and was constant offense for a team that had often had no alpha scorer.

But if you dig a little deeper than points, Harrell's all-around impact on the Clippers is not debatable. He led the entire team in VORP, BPM, DBPM, win-shares, and PER (among qualifying players, sorry Boban). He also posted significantly higher ratings than Williams on both sides of the ball.

While there's plenty of blame to go around for the Clippers' refusal to die this season, many of the numbers paint Harrell as the chief culprit. His rugged hustle, relentless motor and consistent, high-IQ play were a model for the rest of L.A. (the Clippers, at least) to follow.

Regards To: Lou Williams, Domantas Sabonis, Derrick Rose

COACH OF THE YEAR: MIKE MALONE

As it's consistently been in years past, Coach of the Year was a bastion of arbitrariness again this year, fought for by several deserving candidates.

I can't knock a vote for Nate McMillan, who dragged the Pacers to another over-achieving season despite a slew of injuries. Nor for Doc Rivers, who Frankensteined a playoff team out of the Clippers' attempted rebuild.

Fringe contenders like Dave Jeorger, Kenny Atkinson, Nick Nurse and Steve Clifford also hold weight, but two candidates stand above the rest here: Mike Budenholzer, and Malone.

All due respect to Budenholzer, but I generally feel Milwaukee's season is as much an indictment of previous coaching as it is his triumph. It's also a massive chicken-or-egg race between he and Executive of the Year contender Jon Horst.

Last year's Bucks were a stacked squad that was highly maligned and misused. Adding Brook Lopez and a couple other pieces unlocked their potential, but spacing the floor around a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo is pretty basic stuff.

What sets Malone apart is how multi-faceted his performance was. The Nuggets were primed to make a leap this year, but many had them pegged for a mid-playoff team. Instead they jostled with the Warriors atop the West for months, despite prolonged absences to several key players.

Malone got the Nuggets to play top-10 defense, turning everyone's preseason concern about them into a strength. He milked max value out of former nobodies like Malik Beasley, Torrey Craig and Monte Morris, the latter of whom is now among the NBA's best backup PGs. And he maintained consistent success amid a violently oscillating lineup structure, with guys like Gary Harris out every other night, Trey Lyles wildly inconsistent, and Isaiah Thomas ultimately a dud.

Lots of deserving campaigns again, but Malone perhaps did the most with the least, and it was more than anyone - even at full strength - expected of Denver.

Regards to: Mike Budenholzer, Nate McMillan, Doc Rivers

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: PASCAL SIAKAM

What after a few weeks looked like De'Aaron Fox's award to lose was snared by Siakam's out-of-nowhere ascent to likely future All-Star. Fox could've put up a fight, but he staggered a bit as the season went on, along with the Kings' playoff hopes.

Conversely Siakam became a breakout sensation for a Raptors team that went almost half the season missing Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, or both. They still managed to win almost 60 games, buoyed by amazing depth and Siakam's two-way brilliance.

Siakam's numbers surged across the board, including a leap from .508 to .549 shooting, despite almost doubling his attempts per game, and certainly commanding more attention from defenders. Siakam was indispensable on D himself, one of the league's most switchable players, with long limbs, ridiculous motor, and an increasing sense of awareness.

Siakam's case is more bolstered by Toronto's success, and the organic nature of his development therein. Nothing was ascribed about his role this season, nor was there much room for error in the pressure cooker of a Leonard contract year.

What Siakam's given the Raptors is instant Leonard insurance. If Kawhi stays, they'll have one of the scariest frontcourts in the NBA. But even if he leaves, Toronto might not be in such bad shape.

Regards To: De'Aaron Fox, D'Angelo Russell, Paul George

All-Defense Teams
First Team: G-Marcus Smart, G-Jrue Holiday, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Eric Bledsoe, G-Patrick Beverley, F-Derrick Favors, F-Anthony Davis, C-Myles Turner

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO

Lots of people are going to try and give this award to somebody else, on account of Antetokounmpo's MVP-esque campaign, and that somehow cannibalizing his case here.

If you're looking at the DPOY race impartially, it has to go to either Antetokounmpo, or reigning champ Rudy Gobert. And there are mere hairs between them as candidates. Both are ultimate disruptions, who shoulder each other at or near the top of every major defensive metric, and anchor the NBA's two best team defenses. Both grab a ton of rebounds, and avg 2.5-3 stocks per game.

While Gobert is both the ultimate deterrent and penalty against ill-advised forays to the rim, Giannis is a shape-shifting eraser, who can lock up swingmen as easily as snuff the league's best center. His position-amorphous style is increasingly indicative of NBA trends, and thus of great advantage to the Bucks, who can switch him onto literally any attacker, and bust up otherwise-commonplace pick-n-rolls. It's not an exaggeration that Antetokounmpo is the NBA's single most versatile defender.

As recently as last month, Giannis had a decent edge. Gobert made an impressive late season rally to tighten the individual metrics gap, pull Utah to 50 wins, and nudge them right behind Milwaukee in team defense.

It's at least made the decision extremely difficult, but if we're judging the entire body of work here, and analyzing within the context of an increasingly perimeter-oriented league, Giannis wins by the slimmest of margins.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Paul George, Myles Turner

All-NBA Teams
First Team: G-James Harden, G-Stephen Curry, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Joel Embiid

Second Team: G-Damian Lillard, G-Kyrie Irving, F-Kevin Durant, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Nikola Jokic

Third Team: G-Bradley Beal, G-Russell Westbrook, F-Blake Griffin, F-LeBron James, C-Rudy Gobert


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO

This was tough. This was really, really tough. Honestly, I'd have voted for co-MVP between Giannis and James Harden if I could, but that's too much of a cop-out.

Harden pulled possibly the biggest "Team On My Back" in NBA history. The Rockets confounded the entire NBA with their ineptitude over the season's first two months, but Harden righted the ship with a simply staggering offensive display.

Let the record show that he averaged almost 44 points for an entire fucking month, and had teams literally opening driving lanes for him to prevent his patented step-back three.

Even amid his exaggerated sometimes-sleepy defense, Harden's contributions were Herculean. His 36 ppg average is the most ever by someone not named Michael Jordan or Wilt Chamberlain; his game log peppered with triple-doubles and single-handed victories. As a result, Houston skyrocketed (sorry) from the West's basement to a homecourt seed, without both Chris Paul and Clint Capela for long stretches. It was nothing short of a historic season.

But Antetokounpo's case is just too bulletproof. He too had a historic year; the first guy to post averages of 27/12/5 in over 50 years. Of that rarefied list - on which he joins four straight-up NBA legends - Giannis posted by far the best eFG%, adding all-World defense for good measure. He sits neck-and-neck with Harden atop virtually every major advanced stat, bolstering one of the finest all-around statistical displays ever.

With two all-time great seasons placing Harden vs Antetokounmpo head & shoulders above the rest, Freak has the decisive edge in two areas:

1 - Defense. Harden's defensive commitment wanes from night to night, and even play to play. He's capable of heads-up stopping, but often mails in plays to save himself in between offensive possessions. As noted above, Antetokounmpo was (in my opinion) the NBA's best defender this year.

2 - Dominance. Houston was a total train wreck for the season's first six weeks, which definitely  can't be ignored. The Bucks' season was unimpeachable from the get; owning the NBA's best record and net rating, largely because of Giannis, and the system his unique physique and skill set permit.

It seems like robbery for Harden yet again. This could be his third narrow MVP loss in the past four years. But Giannis' steady ascent to the NBA's very peak reached its destination this season. He's 24 years old; his best is still yet to come.

Regards To: James Harden, Paul George, Joel Embiid

Dream On

Lebron James had a dream.

He dreamt of fame; media glory and international worship. He envisioned success; highlight reels, blowout wins, All-NBA nods and Championships. But he thought it was all going to come easy after "taking his talents to South Beach", that life was going to be a breeze with Wade and Bosh along for the ride. He was rudely awakened several times this season; by the Heat's horrible start, cohesion issues with Wade in the halfcourt, and issues closing games against good teams that plagued them right until the playoffs. But still, his dream stayed alive.

It was surely dancing merrily through his head as he basked in the media spotlight last summer, blissfully feigning deliberation while he plotted his exit from Cleveland. It was definitely consuming his thoughts when he had an Adam Morrison-esque on-court meltdown after finally beating the Celtics, in the 2nd Round. It was absolutely all he could think about a couple Thursdays ago when the Heat took a seemingly insurmountable 4th quarter lead in Game 3, and began celebrating like they were already the champs....Right before Dallas stormed back and brought Lebron's dreams crashing back down to reality where, after last night's fatal loss, they'll remain grounded.

Don't get me wrong, last night was about so many other things, but not only was watching Lebron fail extremely satisfying for someone who spent years cheering him on only to have him pull the most despicable cop-outs in the history of pro sports, it upholds justice for the good of the game.

Miami went about the whole thing wrong; they concocted a sleazy pillaging of top-tier talent (perhaps illegally), presented themselves as though they were Gods, boasted and made fools of themselves for most of the season (even when they were losing), let their coach admit guys cried after losses (now we know who), behaved like 4th graders in the Finals, and ultimately got what they deserved; a humbling loss on their homecourt to a team that wanted it more. Their entire season was a crash course in poor conduct, with James at the forefront. His Twitter was on point for once; this wasn't his time. They'll get sent back to the drawing board, and hopefully (for their sake) come back more humble and focused. He obviously didn't learn from his failure in Cleveland, or the severe lynching his image has taken this year, so who's to know if he'll get the message, or keep dreaming.

But yeah, the Dallas Mavericks! NBA Champions! Fuck, that feels weird, not only because it's never been said before, but because jokes about the Mavs choking were as longstanding a spring tradition as horrible officiating. I'm glad to see them break through, even though I've spent more time hating on Dirk than pretty much anything else in life over the past few years. He really impressed me this spring, putting his team on his back and delivering absolute monster performances, closing out games with an unseen killer instinct, battling through injury and illness, and, in contrast to the Heat, acting like a deserving champion. If you're still a Dirk hater, get over yourself, you're too fucking hard to please.

Beyond the Diggler solidifying his Hall of Fame legacy, Jason Kidd was also able to add a title to his Springfield credentials after many a playoff run; if he wasn't a wife-battering asshole I'd probably be happy for him because he's, at 38, still an amazing player. It's nice to see Jason Terry get a ring, Tyson Chandler too; JJ Barea looked like the hungriest guy out there and was a huge X Factor, so he deserves his shine. Shawn Marion's a wash 'cause he played very well, but a huge part of me can't help but feel like his locker-room diva act that forced his way out Phoenix is the biggest single reason why Steve Nash doesn't have a ring...and Deshawn Stevenson...Just hilarious...I'm putting his over-under for Lebron jokes at their postgame party around 80.

Nobody deserves this championship more than Mark Cuban though, because he's the best owner in pro sports. He was like a kid with a toy, except that toy happened to be an NBA franchise. But he took great care of it; he bought a team that had sucked ass for years, was losing its fan base, and fading into obscurity, and immediately made them relevant. Not only were they winning games, and entertaining everybody, but Cuban was drumming up publicity with his in-game antics and constant scrutiny of league policy. Sure, he overpaid players (and didn't overpay the one he should have) but he treated them amazingly well, pimped out their locker room, flew their families around, and created a winning environment that finally reached its apex last night.

Now, much like last year, we drift into an offseason of uncertainty, and its hard to fathom, but much bigger outcomes are at stake. As much as I loved watching Lebron's dream die, I can only hope it's not too long before he gets to chase it again.

The ReBirth of Dirk: Back to the Finals

June 24, 1998;

The soon-to-be-vacated GM Place in Vancouver played host to the NBA Draft; one that would produce a multitude of success stories such as Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, and of course, Michael Olowokandi. Somewhat buried in the annals of franchise-altering horrible trades was one that went down that day; the Milwaukee Bucks snagged German 7-foot prospect Dirk Nowitzki with the 9th pick, and shipped him to the Dallas Mavericks with Pat Garrity for 6th pick Robert Traylor. The Bucks took the loser's end hard, as Traylor's career buckled before it ever took off, while Dallas rode Nowtizki's revolutionary play to a decade's worth of playoff appearances. The tragic part about Dirk's success was that it never seemed to come when it mattered most, and the Mavs flamed out in the playoffs, year after year.

A tragedy of a much greater magnitude took form on May 11th, when Traylor - who had been plagued by conditioning issues throughout his career - suffered a fatal heart attack at his Puerto Rico apartment. Around the same time, the Diggler - who had been plagued by playoff invisibility issues throughout his career - began an all-out assault on opposing defences that's forced even the most jaded Dirk hater (me, in case you're wondering) to admit that he's playing the best basketball in the NBA right now, leading an emphatic charge into the Finals.

Now, by no means am I trying to claim that some preordained supernatural bullshit is connecting these two incidents. Nor am I even suggesting that Traylor's passing made a light go off in Dirk's head that produced this devastating blitzkrieg. But the irony of this timing can't be ignored, because Nowitzki is suddenly playing playoff basketball with a sense of something he's never grasped before: urgency. He's 32, and been in the NBA for 12 years; he saw the window closing and knew this was the time to go all-out with the best team he's ever played on. Dirk spent years listlessly drifting through the playoffs; sure he scored in bunches, but he hardly ever served his opponents with the vicious killer instinct he's displayed these past few weeks. The kind of mentality that evokes not only respect, but fear.

The Mavs now roll into the Finals, looking to avenge the collapse that has marred their last decade's success, against the (well, not really) same team that buried them. While they have depth and experience on Miami for days, the Heat just beasted the team that was probably best equipped to defend them in the NBA and are looking very serious. Miami (obviously) owns the edge at 2 & 3, and although that's about all they have going for them, stopping Lebron & Wade (I'm not going to mention Bosh because as impressive as he was against the Bulls, Boozer was a bum, and Nowitzki is going to destroy him, like confidence-shattering ownage) - by anyone's measuring stick, two of the top five players in the league - when they're this close to a title is going to be very f***ing difficult, especially for a team with only two serviceable defenders to throw at them.

The key to this series figures to be the ability of Dallas' offensive secondary to offset the LeWyane Effect. If guys like Barea and Terry, and Marion can overcome what's sure to be a stifling defensive effort from James and Wade, and provide Dirk with consistent scoring support, then Dallas will be tough to beat. But what I can't get out of my head is how the Western Finals were essentially decided by OKC repeatedly shooting themselves in the face down the stretch of close games, while the Heat closed out several games with crippling 4th quarters, forcing silence upon all those that criticized their clutch factor this season. Which is what's forcing me to believe that despite Dirk's emancipation, the Mavs are, once again, about to come up short. I really hate saying this (even if it validates my preseason prediction): Heat in 6. It's a shame the title celebration won't look this stupid.

My Words Taste...Bitter

I ate my own words last night.

It was really uncomfortable.

Not only was I tied up and force-fed, but they went down about as smoothly as a day-old donair and rested twice as bad in my stomach. I felt like throwing up all night and hardly slept.

The Dallas Mavericks, and in particular Dirk Nowitzki, did what I couldn't have fathomed last night; sweeping homecourt from the Lakers with a decisive win that left the two-time champs reeling. Disco (and unlikely sidekick JJ Barea) buried LA down the stretch with a series of cold-hearted daggers; Kobe was beside himself, Pau was (predictably) helpless, hell Jack Nicholson was losing his cool. Boos rained down from the Staples center while the "favorites" put themselves in a crippling hole against, of all teams, the one with the most troubling past of playoff collapses.

Game 2 forced us all to wake up to the reality that these are indeed a new Dallas Mavericks; now fortified by likely the best defender they've had in the past decade, they've started to adjust and be able to win games without consistent scoring depth. They still have a decent corps of guns that can punish a sleeping defense (see: last night), but these Mavs have adopted a defensive toughness unseen in the past, and it's made them a completely different team in the playoffs. Their history was so deep that their playoff success was one of those "see it to believe it" type phenomena. Well...Believe.

The odds and momentum are heavily in their favor. We've seen this movie before, but there's likely a plot twist or two in store.

The Show Goes On

12:15 pm; Sat, Apr 30; Banter Headquarters (my living room couch):

Roommate: What games are on tonight?

Me: (dejected)...none.

Roommate: Dammit. I was kinda planning my day around that.

Me: (increasingly dejected)...Guess we're hittin' the Palace early.

We're all gonna have to find another vice this evening. Deprived of playoff ball for the first time in two weeks, it's looking like a more standard Saturday night. A not-so-fast but definitely furious first round came to an equal parts unexpected and awesome conclusion last night, when the Memphis Grizzlies finally took down their first playoff series, likely driving the final stake into the Timmy D Spurs' coffin. While San Antonio and Orlando have a few extra weeks to stare at the drawing board they're now facing, the teams that upset them look to keep their slim title hopes alive as the curtain draws on the Second Round:

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Count me among the many who are absolutely astonished that the Hawks are still alive. I was just wrong. Wrong about The Collins Effect. Wrong about Atlanta's bench. Wrong about the Magic being the more motivated team. That being said, there's a large gap between a sketchy 4-seed that's played up and down all year, and the 1-seed who just faced a feisty open-round foe and made most of the important playoff-type adjustments in their first test. The Hawks don't match up terribly with the Bulls, but having no answer for Rose - either on D or as an opposing gun (don't give me any of that Joe Johnson bulls***) - will hurt mightily. Chicago's a much more sound defensive unit than Orlando, and if the Hawks are unable to score more than they did in Round 1, an offensive powder keg like the MVP could be enough to blow this one open.

Bulls in 5

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

This series is going to be, by far, the best of the 2nd round. For so many reasons. Not only does it figure to be the most competitive from a basketball standpoint, but it also pits Lebron against the team that ended his Cleveland era in the most depressing way possible, and wages the battle of Good vs. Evil in NBA. Everyone knows the Heat; an arrogant trio of young superstars copping out to the fast-track to the Finals. Meanwhile, Boston's stars came together to fight for an elusive title after 10+ years of loyal soldiering. They Did the Right Thing; sacrificing their own games for the team's sake, having each others' back, making those around them better, playing every playoff game like a Game 7. They're the anti-Heat, and as such, 90% of the World will be cheering for them.

Either way, this series looks to go seven. It'll be the most top-heavy team in NBA history, vs. depth and balance, swagger vs. playoff savvy, ambition vs. pride. The Celtics know their time is now; that their Big 3 are all at 100% is a slight miracle, and with Rondo clicking, they look much better than they did in March. Their obvious concern is a certain #6; the one who's no doubt revenge-hungry and a threat to keep their best scorer on his toes every possession. Pierce covered Lebron very well in '08, but since then he's just gotten older and Bron's gotten better; it will be different this time around, especially with Wade looming. Both are capable of winning games on their own, but will need to thrive in the halfcourt together to win; something they've struggled with all year. The key to this series figures to be Chris Bosh; KG is his Jason Voorhees of potential playoff matchups, and a lack of consistent production from him could tip the scales Boston's way. JO's done an admirable job of defending the rim from a wheelchair, and if he can reasonably imitate Perkins' role, the Heat's inability to crack the Celts' D, combined with a lethal dose of kiddie-pool shallowness, should finally vindicate us from the Heat Wave.

Celtics in 7

(8) Memphis Grizzlies (!!!) vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder

'Nuff respect to Memhphis. Their 2nd-best player went down and they still pulled off a historic upset against the Spurs of all teams. That's f***ing awesome. I'd love to be blissfully ignorant and realistically act like they're going to beat OKC, but I feel like they'll have to settle for winning my fandom, because the Thunder are going to work them. There were 3 keys to Memphis' upset: Gasol and Randolph wore the thin front line out; Conley broke Parker down off the dribble a lot; Memhpis' frantic, energetic defense rattled the Spurs' collected attack. All 3 of those factors play right into OKC's strengths, as Westbrook is a nightmare to beat, Ibaka/Perkins are probably the best/toughest defensive post combo in the NBA, and OKC's a young team that will beat your press and punish you in transition. This is where Gay's absence will bite them; despite being an excellent defender, Shane Battier's not long or athletic enough to stop the Durantula; look for the venom to act quickly.

Thunder in 5

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Dammit, almost thought we had it: matching Spurs and Mavs meltdowns in the first round (too much, I guess). But Dallas showed some playoff grit one time and recovered from a laughable 4th-quarter collapse to close off Portland in 6. They addressed some early flaws, not much unlike the Lakers, who appear to have re-gained some of that championship poise that's eluded them most of this season. They'll have to be hungrier than against the Hornets, as Dallas matches them much better than in previous years: they have two defensive bigs to throw at their feared front line, and a versatile swingman to contend with Odom/Artest. Meanwhile, Dirk gets to face the only 4 in the West who might be softer than him, and Jason Kidd draws his easiest defensive matchup of the postseason. Still, the Lakers, even at 90%, figure to be a tough draw. Gasol's found a perfect target to regain his offensive edge, the Lakers' bench in far more stable than Dallas', and then there's Kobe Bryant (oh yeah, him) who's DeShawn Stevenson's best series away from single-handedly ending the Mavs. (Seriously, how many times will Bryant casually isolate JJ Barea anywhere inside 25 feet before Rick Carlisle completely yanks him? I'm guessing 2nd quarter, Game 1)

Lakers in 6

Watch out for Thorns: Back at the Rose Garden

I kicked off my last post with a bit about how shitty my timing was, and how excited I was to finally get to enjoy every second of playoff basketball, now that it's finally back. Well the Gods are either mocking me, or my karmatic vibes are coming back around for all the merciless Dirk hating I've done. Sure enough, my cable company's inept accounting department has cut my service for an allegedly "overdue" bill that was paid four months ago, leaving me in a nomadic trek between my parents' place and nearby bars, watching when I can, not enjoying things like I should be. I feel like Drew Gooden.

Today, I've decided to kick back at the parents' pad for Game 4 of the Mavs/Blazers opening rounder, a great matchup, turned Brandon Roy soap opera (more on that in a second), and my only upset pick in the first round. Despite their 2-1 lead, the Mavs haven't looked to be decisively in control of this series, and still look vulnerable. I wouldn't be surprised if this went back to Dallas knotted up, but this is also coming from the guy who thought the Knicks might stand their ground at MSG last night; hopefully the Blazers can make me look slightly less stupid.

Before we get into the thick of things, much has been made of Brandon Roy's tearful outburst over a lack of playing time, with many stances being taken on his comments. It's a difficult and delicate situation, and Roy has been through hell trying to get back on the court. But the sad reality is that this team made the playoffs without him, centered around LaMarcus Aldridge, and developing roles for other players. For Roy to return and expect to attempt to re-gain a rhythm, against a superior team in a playoff series, taking minutes from the guys who got them there, on two paper mache knees, if his coach doesn't feel comfortable with it, is unreasonable. Roy's an incredible player if he's healthy, and showed flashes of it in Game 3, but regardless of his former status, and heroic return, his minutes can't be pre-ordained right now.

Anyways, with that out of the way, on with the show...

- Catching the end of this Pacers meltdown is the most hilarious bonus coverage ever. Up 15 with 2:15 left. Up 1 with 15 left. With your season on the line. Joakim Noah just got left open enough for him to break an inbound play and drive for an and-one from 18 feet. Just unreal.

- They finally wake up, defending like madmen on the final Bulls possession and forcing a Carlos Boozer 3 (career 1-9) for the tie. Now, instead of pondering whether this was a good shot, let us wonder why one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA was straddling the 3 point line, when a quick put-back would've been crucial. Such a shitty way for an awesome comeback to end.

- We've entered The Garden. Ya, after the dud the Knicks threw down last night, Portland's stolen "The Garden" from them, meltdown pending.

- Toss-Up: Wesley Matthews dropping 22 in the first half again, or Jason Kidd dunking on Marcus Camby?

- Deshawn Stevenson's carrying the offensive load early with two treys; 8-4 Mavs at 6:30

- Wesley Matthews promptly shuts me up with an icy three-ball.

- Matthews again, walking right through 4 Mavs in transition. Maybe Kidd's been on Air Alert?...And put on a couple inches?...And owns a time machine?

- Tyson Chandler was possibly the most under-rated player in the NBA this season. For all the (deserved) hype Dwight got about his defense, Chandler was the backbone of an equally atrocious group of perimeter defenders, disrupting penetration and waxing glass all year. He's been huge early.

- A perfect storm of passive offense and solid D, with a touch of sloppy play, has produced a painful first quarter; 16-11 Mavs after 1. 12 combined turnovers. Barea and Matthews have the only field goals in the paint. Good times.

- Barea knows no fear! Really though, his aggression against Portland's bigs is impressive, especially for a guy who makes Eric Murphy look like Arvydas Sabonis.

- Brandon Roy watch: 0-5 early, all jumpers. If this were the regular season I'd have no problem, but this just isn't the time to try and shoot yourself into a rhythm.

- More jumpers for Portland: 5-21 early, they trail 22-13 at 9:05

- Barea keep getting to the hole but the Blazers body up; first a Roy charge, then a Camby swat

- Hard Stojakovic foul on Roy going to the hoop. He seems shaken up, but I have little faith that Peja can hit this guy hard enough to take him out

- Dirk Diggler with a fading, off-balance jumper over two defenders, off a spin into the lane. I wish I could find Nowitzki (for some reason) climbing out of a zoo bearpit, so I could re-enact Wes Mantooth's "I HATE YOU!...But dammit, I respect you" speech. And then push him back in.

- Ason Kidd's putting in a decent campaign to have the "J" returned to his name. Take Wilt's 100, Oscar's season-long triple-double, and shove them; the most incredible stat is Kidd being 3rd in career 3's. I find that completely incomprehensible, somebody with connections is lying.

- Tyson Chandler: perhaps not the guy you want to run your offense through. Though, the way Portland's looked so far, he'd make a great PG for them. 35-27 Mavs at 3:30

- Aldridge turns upcourt, runs straight into Chandler's elbow and gets up in his grill. Chandler raises his arms and walks away. So Aldridge shoves him. Well, that was perfectly reasonable. 'Couple technicals.

- The scrappy play continues as Dirk and Miller fall to the hardwood fighting over a loose ball. Dirk: "So THIS is what playoff basketball's like..."

- Great team play from Portland: Aldridge deflects a pass, saves it to Matthews, who hits Wallace for a nice oop in transition....Matthews again! Suddenly the Blazers are alive and within 4.

- With Dallas' offense on life support, Portland closes the quarter on a 10-2 run. They trail 37-35, and their best player's been a complete non-factor so far; this is very winnable.

- Chuck on Carlos Boozer: "The key to life is knowing your limitations". How many times have those words found their way out of his mouth at the Palms?

- Dallas has 2 points off 8 turnovers and hasn't been to the line as the third quarter begins. Yikes. This game's been a struggle offensively.

- Both teams come out with more jumpers; watching Gerald Wallace settle for a pull-up is like seeing a girl with an amazing butt in really loose sweatpants.

- ..."the other balls" aren't the only ones you kill. Every time you're on TV, we all die a little inside.

- "J"ason Kidd wets another three, the kind that hurts your ears from the mesh twanging so close to the mic.

- The Blazers are 0-7 from the field this quarter and trail by 9, but Chandler just picked up #4 at 7:20

- More J's for the Blazers. (haha, seems about right) Now 0-9, down by 15. At least they're in bonus now so they might be able to get something going at the stripe.

- Dirk bangs a 2nd chance 3; Portland needs to wake the f*** up.

- Portland, again, gets no penetration and settles for a 3 from a streaky shooter (Nicolas Batum) who's hit nothing all day. Somebody, please slap these guys.

- Portland then has Aldridge BACKING DOWN JASON KIDD on the block, who against no double, kicks it out for another missed 3. 0-12.

- Ok, we're down to under 3 minutes. Portland has yet to hit a field goal in this quarter, in 14 futile attempts (now 24% for the game). As much as I wanna see Dallas lose, that seems highly unlikely now, and seeing them go a whole quarter would be really funny.

- Conversely, Peja bangs another 3, the Mavs are 8-14 from deep

- Finally Aldridge catches the ball deep and nets the field goal Portland needed 10 minutes ago, off the look they should've been exploiting the second Chandler hit the bench. Instead, they listlessly drifted the quarter and Trail by 18 heading into the fourth. I'm going to grab some beers.

Place Your Bets! The 2011 Championship Gambling Guide

Few things are certain in life. Death, taxes, the changing of the seasons, and the Toronto Raptors sucking are pretty much the only things we can count on for sure. In every other situation, life's wild variance pitches us an extensive range of possibilities that provide excitement, uncertainty, and the unavoidable gamble. This applies to the chase for the 2011 NBA title; while the Lakers have established themselves as prohibitive favorites, the contenders have been up and down all year, and several teams from both conferences think think they can bring the two-time champs down. The contender debate has as many sides to it as we've seen in recent memory, but as we close in on the postseason, here's Banter's official 2011 Championship Gambling Guide:

Dead Money - Putting any kind of bet on these teams winning the title would be like setting money on fire - only setting money on fire wouldn't get your hopes up, waste your time or make you look quite as stupid:

Denver Nuggets - After getting beyond the soap opera that consumed most of their season, this might be one of the best cores of young talent in the NBA going forward. They have depth at multiple positions, an enviable glut of athletic swingmen, some decent contracts, and one of the league's best coaches. That being said, right now, despite their huge wave of momentum, they're a slightly-mismatched bunch who were just thrown together, lack any playoff experience, and don't have a takeover player who can win them tough games down the stretch. If they go in the first round, count me unsurprised.

New York Knicks - This time last month, there was much buzz in the Big Apple; ambitious fans and media gawking about Amar'e and Melo scaring the East's elite in the playoffs. Optimism faded quickly when the team went into a complete nosedive before last night's gutsy win against Orlando, in which Anthony completely destroyed a helpless Hedo Turkoglu (see below) in the second half. While New York is 7-4 against winning teams since Melo and Chancey arrived, they gutted their roster and are a few quality pieces away from contention.

Orlando Magic - Dwight Howard is an awesome player, by far the L's best defender, if it weren't for Derrick Rose, maybe an MVP. What surrounds him is a bunch of players who, on rare occasion, are all clicking together and can run with anybody. Most nights, they are too inconsistent on offense and too inept on defense to suggest they'll go deep this year. Howard gets hung out to dry too many times; racking up fouls on help D after (insert name of shitty Magic perimeter defender) got beat. This will cause massive problems for them in the second round, where their season's likely to end.

In the Money: With the pretenders out of the way, we can dive into the teams that could actually, legitimately, maybe win a championship this year. Starting with the long shots (for all you reckless degens), and working up to the odds-on favorite, here's a look at what kind of bets you might want to be taking:

Oklahoma City Thunder - I was considering lumping them in with the pretenders until they pulled off the Perkins deal and look very scary. Their youth in mind, they showed last year that they can overperform on a big stage, and now have the best post D combo in the West, along with James Harden's sudden channeling of Michael Finley circa 2000, to complement the MVP-caliber duo of Westbrook and Durant. They now officially look like a team that could make noise, with upside to spare. Said upside, of course, if what's separating them from looking like a serious contender. They're still very young and untested by playoff rigors; don't forget how Durant crumbled against LA last year. They could make a run, but place bets with caution and a heavy dose of optimism.

Odds: 9.5-1

Boston Celtics - The Celts looked like they could win it all; on cruise control despite a horribly unhealthy lineup, depth, experience, poise, and a thirst for revenge after how close they came last June. Then Danny Ainge mis-stepped and traded one of his team's core competencies (a solid defensive anchor/answer for Dwight Howard) in a dice roll that really hasn't been panning out. The Celts look just awful, and Rajon Rondo's nagging finger injuries have seen their best player playing inconsistently while his team copes with a new identity. Chicago and Miami are streaking on easy schedules to higher seeds, while the once-favored Celts' chances of even making it out of the East look grim right now.

Odds: 8-1

Dallas Mavericks - This isn't your older Mavs. They're a lot tougher defensively (especially if they get Caron Butler back) and can comfortably slow down in the halfcourt; by definition more suited to playoff ball. Despite Cuban's storied history of assembling postseason bombs, this team looks tougher and has a number of guys who can get buckets if Dirk has one of his patented (play)off-nights. Peja was added for nothing, Barea's been hot, and Butler's a potential 20-point scorer when healthy. On paper, they look very tough. But on the court they arouse doubt for several reasons; to name a few: Jason Kidd's a phenomenal playmaker, but he's also one of the worst on-the-ball defenders in the NBA and his lack of lateral movement gets exploited every spring. Dirk Nowitzki's an incredible scorer who drags big men far out of their comfort zone, but he also routinely disappears from big games and isn't a much better defender than Kidd. they give up way too much size whenever Beaubois or Barea are at the two (which they often are). Their biggest scoring threat in the post is (no kidding) Brendan Haywood. This is a team that can be very dangerous when playing optimally, which they displayed impressively early in the season, but have had a tough time keeping up with...and lost to the Lakers by 30 last week.

Odds: 6.9-1

San Antonio Spurs - Well, it hit. That wave of injuries that everyone kept eerily suspecting was going to hit the Spurs finally did, and couldn't have come at a worse time, or to two more crucial players. Suddenly, San Antonio's limping into the playoffs with yellow flags everywhere. They looked sat comfortably atop the West all season, and in very un-Spur-like fashion, are crumbling down the stretch and are in danger of losing their 1-seed. Any kind of bet made on the Spurs requires a steadfast belief in the ability of Manu, Tony and Timmy D to handle heavy minutes and the pounding of a more physical playoff game. It's never smart to count the Spurs out, but with all three of their stars playing hurt, they're not the team that coasted all year.

Odds: 5.6-1

Chicago Bulls - What Chicago did to the Eastern Conference this season was similar to Marlo's uprising in The Wire's 3rd season; he came out nowhere and rolled up on an unsuspecting crew who thought they had it made, establishing himself as the man. But his meteoric rise inspired envy and suspicion; the kind that put targets on him from multiple hunters and ultimately brought down his empire. The Bulls look very strong; Derrick Rose is as unguardable as anyone in the league, and he leads a team whose entire rotation has been playing above expectation. It's very hard to find flaws in a roster that's likely wrapped the East's top seed despite early injuries to two stars; they rebound and defend extremely well, have multiple scorers from all areas, can transition between halfcourt and uptempo better than most, and even have a COY candidate (and not the Sam Mitchell kind, the kind that was courted by every team with a coaching vacancy last summer because everyone knows he knows his shit) at the helm. Their lack of experience may hurt them in later rounds, but they look as strong as anyone in the East.

Odds: 4.2-1

Miami Heat - It feels weird having them up this high given all the questions they've yet to answer, but after Boston shot themselves in the leg and Father Time caught up with the Spurs, it's hard to see them not being serious contenders with Wade and James in beast mode. Their depth issues aside, the playoffs will be more and more about the Big 3, especially LeWade, who are both capable of winning a game on their own. If Chris Bosh can learn to play outside of his comfort zone for the team's sake, and Miami can still control tempo and create transition buckets, it will go a long way towards masking just how shallow this team is. Udonis Haslem's rumored resurrection is wishful thinking, but would be a Godsend to a team that was already blessed with the aftermath of Danny Ainge's stupidity, and will need even more good fortune to beat these next guys...

Odds: 4-1 (a slight edge over Chi-Town, only because I have an uneasy feeling that all the boos have obviously jaded Lebron and he's about to unleash some completely ruthless Taken-style rampage on the rest of the NBA)

Los Angeles Lakers

Life in the NBA's Penthouse has been somewhat turbulent this year, but through the requisite Bynum injuries, Gasol complaining about anything, and general Artest insanity, the Lakers have brought it all together down the stretch, are fully healthy for the first time all year, and playing the best ball of anyone in the NBA. Regardless of their occasional regular-season lapses, the Zen Master will have them playing optimal basketball over the next few months, and with their obvious experience, depth, and the most mismatch-safe lineup in the league (with plenty of room to exploit their own), it could be very tough for any of the cloudy contenders to dethrone them. Subplot of the postseason: Kobe's chase for a sixth title: How much will finally tying Jordan (he cares about it, don't believe him. Anybody who was that unfairly and incessantly measured against greatness his entire career would love to finally, in some way, match it...And Kobe's a shitty liar) amp up his game? Will it be a positive or negative force for LA? How many games in does Pau start whining about how his usage rate has dipped 3% below his regular season average? Should be a great postseason...

Odds: 2.2-1

"...Still a Whole Lot to Lose"

..So what now? It seemed like the entire Association was on guard for years, eagerly awaiting the summer of 2010 and gutting their rosters for the best chance at cashing in on the free agent jackpot. Most of them now return to the drawing board with their hands empty and their dreams dashed, facing the very daunting task of competing with a potential dynasty in Miami to deliver the title their fans all hoped this offseason would help bring home.

As the aftershocks from a ridiculous summer begin to settle, so too does the reality that the Heat are going to be very difficult to contend with this year. Few people on any side of the argument think that anyone besides the current champs and maaaybe a healthy Celtics squad could realistically beat them, and the teams with even a remote chance at doing so can be counted on a single hand. What for the past few seasons had looked like a wide open title chase is suddenly an exclusive endeavor that few teams will even catch a glimpse of.

Despite this cold new frontier, those that won't be playing for a championship will still have lots to lose, if not little to win. Without even mentioning a potential lockout, there's plenty of reason for urgency in many NBA cities; everything from plummeting profits and attendance to unhappy superstars and reputations to protect. Even in the ominous shadow of the league's best teams, the pressure will be immense and the outcomes potentially devastating. Someone's bound to get the worst of it, so giving some benefit of the doubt to the champs and the heir apparents (who, despite having a title to defend and expectations higher than Method Man to meet, are clearly on top of things), here are the ten teams with the most on the line this year:

10. Houston Rockets
Eight years ago, the Rockets drafted Yao Ming first overall in the hopes that he would be a dominant big man and ambassador of a game whose popularity was exploding in his native China. They managed to build a solid cast around he and T-Mac, every season promising a title run to its fans, every season ended prematurely by a fatal array of injuries to their stars. While Yao's done admirably when able, the toll that a decade of non-stop basketball (thanks to ridiculous offseason demands from the Chinese national team) took its toll on his brittle body, keeping him on the chilling list for large slumps of his career. This season will be his most important ever, as Yao, his doctors, and the Rockets all point to another injury being the end of his career. If he stays healthy, pairing him with Kevin Martin will give the Rockets an offensive punch they sorely lacked all last year and surely put them in the West playoffs, but if Yao succumbs to his ailments, we'll have lost a great talent, and Rockets season ticket holders will have been stymied yet again.

9. Detroit Pistons
Not only is this team struggling to keep their heads above water in the East, their fan base grew tired of stale, crappy basketball last season and attendance at Pistons games sank like employment rates in Michigan during the recession. Things have gone from good to bad deplorable too quickly in disinterested and economically-challenged Motown; the once Shaft-esque front office smoothness of Joe Dumars has become as coarse as the sandpaper his balls will soon meet after the bandsaw. Drafting Darko Milicic in the deepest class ever, trading your franchise player inexplicably for a reputed selfish tyrant, signing two third-tier talents to half your team's cap space to have them come off the bench...this is not the kind of decision making that builds winning teams or keeps people their jobs. If Dumars isn't able to put the brakes on this disaster very soon, he might be thrown on the grenade, but even that should do little to prevent this entire team from being blown up if they don't improve vastly. Don't count on it happening.

8. Toronto Raptors
The other squads on this list are rolling the dice on more tangible assets like players and season ticket holders. The Raps come into this season still reeling from their franchise icon's unceremonious exit, facing the implicit task of carrying an entire country's waning basketball interest on their shoulders. Well over half of the games broadcast on Canadian cable tv feature Toronto (...can't wait for this League Pass subscription), meaning most of the basketball we're being exposed to is flimsy, uninspiring crap that's sure to only get worse after RuPaul wasn't traded at the deadline, the team crashed their 5th seed into the lottery over the final 25 games, and he inevitably left. Canadians who (relatively) have little connection to the NBA beyond this shitstorm won't forever hold interest in a team that perpetually loses too many games and All-Star talents (don't forget about T-Mac) for nothing at all. Expectations won't be very high for this team, but the pressure has to be mounting for Toronto to at least come close to meeting them.

7. New York Knicks
What was once basketball's undisputed holy ground became its laughing stock over the last ten years as the Knicks took stupidity to new heights both on and off court. Their salvation was supposed to have arrived this past summer, but endless rumors, perennial tanking, and relentless hope amounted to only marginal improvements and a sense of uncertainty. Not only is this team's range of potential success as wide as any other's in the East, the swirling rumors of Chris Paul and Melo's interest now torment a team that just spent four seasons tanking for Lebron and probably came nowhere close to getting him. If the team plays well and the Knicks can lure both, or even one of their targets, then this year will be a success...If things don't play out so well, the basketball-crazed Garden regulars and boisterous media could turn on this team quickly and be a negative catalyst to any even slight progress. They have the largest window of opportunity of all these teams, but their situation can also become the most volatile if they don't capitalize on it; they haven't done much to make up for the past decade so far.

6. Orlando Magic
It was a summer of slight setback in Orlando; one where the competition got much, much better, and the Magic struggled to stay in neutral, losing Matt Barnes and overpaying to keep JJ Redick. Vince and Rashard aren't getting any younger, Jameer's health is becoming an annual concern, and Dwight's offensive game actually regressed last year as he was frustrated by incessant fouling and forced to earn more of his points at the stripe. Especially now in the imposing shadow of their stateside rivals, things aren't so sunny in Orlando; even Stan Van Gundy's been admitting to the media that the Heat are virtually unbeatable. He might just be trying to motivate his team, but they'll be hard pressed to make it back to the Finals with this squad. Having few big names they'll be willing to or able to trade, and a bloated payroll that will brutally handicap their ability to maneuver, this team will just have to dig deep and exceed all expectation to protect their contender status and prove their coach wrong.

5. New Orleans Hornets
Now that Lebron James is no longer in Leveland, Chris Paul holds the honor of being the single most important player to his team's success in the entire NBA. That he's publicly unhappy with the state of the franchise has to be of concern to a front office in a small, challenged market. The Hornets will have a difficult time being relevant in a city that just won a Super Bowl and a country that (not to sound insensitive) is further removed from the devastation of Katrina, if Paul ends up forcing his way out. It would be easier for Shawn Kemp to get hired at Planned Parenthood than it will be for New Orleans to get equal return on CP3, so being forced into dealing the league's best point guard could be devastating. They'd better hope Trevor Ariza's really that answer nobody expects him to be and the potential of Peja's expiring deal is enticing enough for Paul Wall to stay...But who honestly believes it is?

4. San Antonio Spurs
For the first time since Tim Duncan's rookie season, (think about it, this was back when we all thought baseball players were honest athletes, had no clue who Britney Spears was, and thought the World was going to end because of a misplaced computer digit) the Spurs are a few steps removed from the title conversation. They lucked out into landing one of the best big men ever and have milked four championships out of him, but face a serious crossroads this year with their often-injured trio of stars (especially Duncan) on aging legs, their competition getting much tougher, and their roster virtually unchanged from last season. Rebuilding seems almost unfathomable and probably too drastic, but something's gonna have to give here before Timmy D's knees do. Another title's out of the question, and last year's team gave little reason to suggest a slight-shake up's a bad idea.

3. Dallas Mavericks
It's hard to fault the Mavs. They've upgraded what was already one of the best rosters in a deep Western pool and should easily win 50 games this year while being cheered on by a raucous home crowd...But beneath that sugar-coating, this Dallas team is a perennial playoff disappointment that faces an ever-shrinking window to win a title. Disco's failed more often than succeeded with assorted arrays of talent around him, and Mark Cuban's undivided attention - the catalyst that elevated this franchise from lottery doldrum to playoff staple - is clearly wandering after numerous attempts to buy other teams. Like the Spurs, they're too good of a team to be rebuilding, but their feeble playoff track record only increases their need (and unlikelihood) to outperform teams that are simply much better than them to finally get that elusive title. Another first round exit would almost certainly amount to the end of Dirk's status as a franchise player, and the tossing of this roster into the proverbial blender.

2. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets faced a tragic obstacle last year when a terrific campaign was derailed by coach George Karl's second bout with cancer, almost directly coinciding with a nose dive that ended their season far earlier than they'd hoped. With Karl's health hanging in the balance, an already delicate situation was suddenly dropped on the pavement when stories of Carmelo Anthony's imminent departure began surfacing. Denver now must placate their displeased franchise player, while trying to move him in a market that's ulikely to return equal value, working against a ticking clock that every other GM is aware of. So while the careful maneuvering continues and 'Melo plays the waiting game, the Nuggets and their fans are consumed by uncertainy, knowing only for sure that their best player wants out. For a team that's a lock for homecourt in the West at full strength, this is no way to start the season.

1. Boston Celtics
More than any other team in the NBA, the Celtics are built for the right now. Although their best player's barely grazing his prime (and to think three years ago he was a potential liability), this team's core is more susceptible to injury and age than anyone else's. Vulnerability to fatigue and fragility only heightens the urgency of this being perhaps their last shot at another title with the seniors' squad. This team went through a vicious mid-season down swing, but entered the playoffs armed with full health and their A-game, silencing critics and supposedly better teams with a defiant run to within an untimely injury and some Ron Artest (?!?!?!?!) heroics of a title. That bitter ending should only serve as motivation on what will be a very difficult road through Miami and/or LA; the Celts probably feel as though they need to redeem themselves, or at least Kevin Garnett has probably frightened them into believing it. Not that they need any extra motivation. This season could likely be the final shot at the Finals, the last chance for this crew to build their legacies and probably the last time the Celtics will be this close to contending for a while.

"...Aaand here they come down the stretch.."

Now that the regular season marathon's drawing to a close, we can begin seriously licking our chops, knowing that the season's best basketball will soon be upon us. Every game will count as teams furiously jockey for playoff seeding (and, in more mundane cases, lottery balls), leading into an epic battle for basketball's most revered honor. March Madness needn't be mentioned (but shouldn't be forgotten) to deem the coming months as any hoops head's favorites...But let's not get ahead of ourselves here, before the title bout, there's still a couple fights left on the undercard as the quest for the postseason winds down. Here's the tale of the tape:

The Dreamers: These teams will be duking it out for the final playoff spots. The season will end in disappointment for most of them, but, with the exception of one, they should be happy just to be here.

Milwaukee Bucks - Just the fact that they're still in this conversation after losing Micheal Redd and having the League's most gloriously inefficient point guard this year is astounding. Kudos to Scott Skiles for having this muddle of youngsters play above the sum of their parts recently; mixing in John Salmons might serve up playoff appearance.

Memphis Grizzlies - Facing a tough recent schedule - as any team in the West is bound to at some point - the Grizz have slipped back towards .500, showing that although they're much better than we would've given them credit for, they might not be playoff-ready in the deep West. Their remaining schedule's relatively soft, but lottery or not, they recovered from the Iverson debacle quickly and are still on the good end of massive upside.

Houston Rockets - Losing Carl Landry hurt but picking up Kevin Martin and a couple good big men really gave this team exactly what they needed at a fair price. A go-to scorer's a much needed shot in thw arm for what's been a languid Rockets offense, and Martin's surrounded by enough potent help for his defensive deficiencies to be minimalzied. As promising as a playoff run would be, this team's really just waiting on next season, praying that a year of rest will finally get Yao Ming on a healthy track.

Miami Heat - Having once held then safest grip on their playoff seed in the L, Miami's tumbled all the way to the brink of the lottery and is no lock to make the postseason. As the losses pile up, so (inevitably) does Dwyane's frustration as he Wades in the shallow talent around him. He's capable of lifting this team to a first-round exit, but I can't help but think apathy must be setting in.

New Orleans Hornets - They've played surprsingly well without Chris Paul thanks to the recent explosion of rookies Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. It remains to be seen if this talented but inexperienced backcourt can continue this blistering pace all season, but if they can keep the Hornets in the fight long enough for CP3 to get healthy, it might be all they need.

Charlotte Bobcats - Some recent struggles against just about everyone (...except the Cavs...) have cast Charlotte back onto the East lottery scene. I still see them as the most likely of the bottom 3 (Miami and Milwaukee being the others) to squeeze into the playoffs, their recent trade having bolstered a Kate Moss-thin frontcourt. This current lineup's not far from its ceiling, but after years of sucking, mere respectability is welcome in Charlotte.

The Long-Shots: Their postseason ambitions fairly realistic, these squads are battling for a better draw in the faint hope of a first-round upset

Portland Trailblazers - Picking up Marcus Camby was huge for a team that wasn't dressing a 7-footer and starting 52 year-old Juwan Howard at center. Somehow, they weathered several violent attacks from the injury bug and stayed in the playoff chase this long. It's hard to imagine them losing their grip unless Brandon Roy decides to shut down his ailing hamstring, even harder to picture them upsetting the Lakers. That being said, if any team can be satisfied with just a playoff berth, given everything they've been through, it's these guys.

Chicago Bulls - Since their near-implosion in December, the Bulls have been playing some pretty f***ing good basketball, recently having beaten five .500+ teams in a row...on the road...in the West. Their remaining schedule won't be easy, but it's heavy on the United Center - where they're won two thirds of their games this year - and regardless of this season's outcome, they've given their fans reason to be optimistic about next year with more cap space to bait the many marquee free agents this summer.

San Antonio Spurs - Sorry, have to do it. Finally. I know it seems weird seeing San Antonio this far removed from the contender conversation this far into the season, but they've played tired, inconsistent basketball and shown nobody any reason to expect something beyond a first round dismissal. MAYBE they can pull out an upset if their entire roster's at 100%, but that'll be asking a lot. Tim Duncan's been uncannily efficient this year, but even in the postseason, where he'll playing far more than 31 minutes/game, he'll need much more help than he's had this year. The Alamo's been taken. Good riddance.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Not to slight the impressively precocious play of a team nobody asked to be ten games over .500, but the playoff-virgin core of the Zombie Sonics will have a hard time beating a team like Utah or Dallas in seven games. Durant's been unreal, Westbrook's been steadier, Harden's been steadily improving...Hard as it may be just remember they're the youngest team in the League; this is just the beginning.

Toronto Raptors - Playing to their potential for once, the Raps have responded to the preseason hype, ironically thanks in no part to a certain Turk who's been playing like he's living out his Pizza Pizza commercial on the reg. The return of Reggie Evans will be welcomed by a team that's finally embracing the foreign concepts of hustling and defensive toughness, while their two-headed point guard attack has proven potent in recent weeks. If eveything's firing for them, they're the kind of team that could scare a wounded Celtics squad that perenially lets its guard down in early rounds.

Phoenix Suns - Yeah, I dunno why they kept Amar'e either. They're several players they can't afford away from contending and will likely lose him after they're swiftly dismissed from the first round...oh well...here's hoping whatever team lands him will pull of a miracle trade for Chris Paul.

The Dark Horses: These are the underdogs; the teams that will be expected to make noise come playoff time, but will have to knock off a favorite to get a title shot.

Boston Celtics - You don't think so the way they've been playing lately? They're one of A's best teams when healthy, but they haven't been all year. If Garnett and Pierce are still hampered in April, they're screwed; even with a healthy Pierce last year, it took the best basketball of Rajon Rondo's life to get them out of the first round. I'm fully prepared for a complete Big 4 to prove me wrong, but I won't count on Glen Davis, Tony Allen and Fatigued Wallace to do it.

Atlanta Hawks - They've dominated the Celtics this year, but lackluster performances against the Cavs and Magic leave serious doubts about their ability to match up with the East's beasts. Atl definitely took a step forward this year, but it'll take another one to reach the NBA's upper echelon.

Utah Jazz - They've been the West's best team since Christmas, but this team just seems...off. Too much uncertainty enshrouds them: D-Will's questioning front office intentions, Boozer claims he wants to stay but can't be taken at his word, Millsap's being jerked like Jack Link's beef waiting for the minutes he deserves, and Andrei Kirlenko/Mehmet Okur's consistency problems will hurt them when they're playing top-tier teams every game. If they can shake it all off and give the better Lakers some heat, I'll be thoroughly impressed.

The Contenders: For these squads, anything short of a title will be a disappointment. It's not about waiting on free agents, nurturing young talent and 'building a winner'; they've built winners, now it's time to do what they do.

Orlando Magic - The Magic showed very scary glimpses of their May 2009 selves this past weekend against the Cavs. Dwight owned the paint with a nice array of moves early, and when the Cavs keyed their D on him, a floodgate of 3's rained on them from all angles, while a lane-clogging defense reduced Lebron to a streaky jumpshooter, removed from his rhythm. They're another team who's been unhealthy, with injuries plaguing their starting backcourt, but have shown a much better ability to play hurt than the older, thinner Celtics. They're as dangerous as any contender out there.

Denver Nuggets - Why not? Even with Melo and Chauncey hobbled, they've held down the second-best record in the better conference, while Kenyon Martin's enjoyed a renaissance and Ty Lawson's emerged as one of the better steals in a deep draft class. They're an improved defensive team and boast a scary offensive arsenal that few teams are equipped to outgun. At full stregnth, they're at-worst a top-three team in the West.

Cleveland Cavliers - After peeling off the season's longest winning streak with their second-best player in streets, Cleveland acquired a borderline All-Star for at worst, their backup center and at best, absolutely nothing. Jamison's incorporation into the lineup wasn't as "seamless" as Danny Ferry had predicted, but doesn't change the fact that the Cavs, who were already arguably the favorites in the East, improved a lot. They match up better against the Magic than last year, and should have no trouble with any of the East's lesser teams. Of course, the stakes are also higher in Cleveland than anywhere else, so deliverance upon their postseason expectations is vital.

Dallas Mavericks - They might end up coming out the winners of the trade deadline deals; they got EXACTLY what they needed in Haywood and Butler; tough defense, low-block competency, and a more versatile offensive attack. They looked to be firing on all cylinders in the 2nd half against LA, toppling the champs without Caron in a serious statement game. What was already a playoff dark horse now could be a bonafide threat to the throne.

...Which leaves us with the reigning champs, who still have to be called The Favorites; even with Kobe taking his longest injury leave in years, the Lakers maintained their steady cushion on the West's top spot. Aside from the Cavs, they've repeatedly beaten tough opponents and rarely shown the type of champion's complacency that could plague a team this talented. Although there's been recent dissent about Mr. Bryant's itchy trigger finger, but it'll tkae much more than that to disturb the Zen Garden long enough to knock the Lakers off their title course. Believe they'll be playing their best ball in May and, most likely, June; it'll be tough for anyone else to match.

It's Deadline Time!

...And things promised to be a especially hectic this year, as the sinking luxury tax threshold and anticipation of July's impending free-agent exodus added other dimensions to the usual clamor to improve contenders, re-build disasters and move disgruntled stars. Not to disappoint, several blockbuster deals stood out amongst a flurry of moves made with a wide variety of motivations. Let's break down the important deals and see who came out on top:

Mavericks get: Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, Deshawn Stevenson

Wizards get: Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, box of spare pistol ammunition

This deal, announced over the weekend, kicked off the madness and signaled the beginning of Washington's voluntary implosion. Here, they were lowballed for their best player and although they gained some long-term flexibility by shedding Stevenson and Haywood's, this franchise - given their preseason aspirations - is at rock bottom. Dallas meanwhile, is loving this trade. They added a slasher to their perimeter scorers in Butler, who also becomes their best and toughest defender. Haywood can rebound, block shots and be much more of a distraction down low on both ends than Erick Dampier, and Stevenson? Well, his weird beard can raise morale as locker-room joke fodder. They got significantly better, and could potentially become the biggest threat to the Lakeshow. Who wins? 80% Mavs, 20% Wizards

Blazers get: Marcus Camby

Clippers get: Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, ca$h money

Great move for the Blazers. Down two centers to season-long injury, Portland went out and nabbed maybe the best rent-a-center they could've by landing the former DPOY. Assuming Camby himself doesn't revert to his injury-prone ways (and Brandon Roy comes back), he'll solidify the middle for a playoff run and come off the books for about $11 mil in June. They give up a guard they didn't need and an injured swingman they likely couldn't afford to re-sign. The Clippers get to shave a little more money off the cap next year, knowing that their season was going nowhere and Camby was going anywhere else. Who wins? 70% Blazers, 30% Clippers

Bobcats get: Tyrus Thomas

Bulls get: Flip Murray, Acie Law, future 1st rounder

Thomas' departure was inevitable; his inconsistent play and apparently shitty attitude endeared him little to Vinny D kept his teammates constantly guessing; will he make this play?...Will he make the team flight? This seems like addition by subtraction for Chicago, who also boost their scoring punch and backcourt depth with their new players. Meanwhile, Charlotte's painfully thin frontcourt gets bolstered by Thomas' addition; regardless of his disposition he can become an impact player if he keeps his head on straight. Maybe a change of scenery was what he needed, but he'll fill a serious void on a team that relies on their small forward for almost 12 boards every game. Bonus points to Charlotte for pilfering a potential stud, whose name has been floated in rumors for awhile, when his value was at an all-time low. Who wins? 50% Bulls, 50% Bobcats

Bucks get: John Salmons

Bulls get: Hakim Warrick, Joe Alexander

The Bulls quietly dumped Salmons' $6 million salary for two expiring deals. This will do little to help their playoff cause (not that it'll amount to anything beyond a swift first-round exit), but methinks Chicago might be cleaning house to make a run at a hometown kid who's looking less and less at home down in Miami. If we're to take Wade's recent encouraging comments about playing in Chi-Town seriously (and why woulnd't we?), then this would be a worthwhile venture. The Bucks pick up some backcourt competency in the trade, probably not enough to dodge the lottery though. The expiring deals they give up limit the flexibility of a team that needs to rebuild regardless of Michael Redd's status, and picked up only a serviceable swingman. Who wins? 60% Bulls, 40% Bucks

Celtics get: Nate Robinson, unknown player (as of Thursday afternoon)

Knicks get: Eddie House, Bill Walker's corpse, JR Giddens

The Knicks made another payroll have, acquiring a bunch of soon-to-be-null contracts and getting rid of a player who had clearly fallen out of favor with Mike D'Antoni and hardly played anyway. The Celtics traded an erratic, undersized shooting guard for an erratic, undersized point guard who won't match House's playoff experience or be effective unless he's dominating the ball on a team of very good players. Robinson's a better player talent-wise, but I worry about his ability to contribute to a contender. Who wins? 65% Knicks, 35% Celtics

Knicks get: Tracy McGrady, Sergio Rodriguez

Rockets get: Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries

Kings get: Carl Landry, Joey Dorsey and...sigh..Larry Hughes

In the most complex deadline deal, the Kings decided Kevin Martin wasn't fitting into their scheme (in all honesty, they played much better without him) and shipped Houston exactly what they needed: first an elite scorer, then working New York into the deal to add a legit 7-foot prospect (of which Houston currently has none) and a great defender in Jeffries, while doing right by Tracy McGrady (for some reason) and sending him to a preferred destination. T-Mac gets a chance to revive his career in a high-octane offense under the bright lights of MSG, and if things don't work out, his league-high $23 million price tag comes off the books in a few months. Despite his recent ineptitude, McGrady - having been almost voted an All-Star starter - is clearly still one of the most popular players in the League and will give fans something to care about as the Knicks grind to another lottery season. The Kings pick up maybe the A's most underrated player in Landry, who will be a nice, consistent piece on a team that's had little stability this season. You have to think a top-tier scorer like Martin, whose trade value hadn't been slandered at all, could've netted more. Who wins? 50% Rockets, 40% Knicks, 10% Kings

Cavaliers get: Antawn Jamison, The Artist Formerly Known As Sebastien Telfair

Wizards get: Zydrunas Ilgauskas' contract, Al Thornton

Clippers get: Drew Gooden

The Wizards firesale/complete fucking meltdown spread yesterday, consuming their other All-Star calibre forward and sending him to the (record-wise) best team in the conference. We know that Washington's trying to cut costs like ties to Gilbert Arenas, and the Clippers needed to shore up their thin front line (although I sincerely doubt they've found the answer), but what this does for Cleveland is significant. It's a shame that Lebron and Amar'e won't be joining forces, but I like this trade for a couple reasons. Not only will Jamison spread the floor better and likely fit very well into Cleveland's offensive scheme, but the Cavs were able to hold onto JJ Hickson, who would've been included in any deal with Phoenix and is becoming a serious beast. Jamison's proven highly effective as a role player; this former 6th Man of the Year wanted to be traded to a contender to help win a title and might be the difference in deciding who brings it home in June. Meanwhile, Big Z's likely going to be bought out, in which case his re-signing with the Cavs for the minimum would be a sure bet. Adding a would've-been All-Star for nothing? That's the kind of shrewd move that'll instill confidence in Lebron and convey the organization's commitment to winning now. Who wins? 90% Cavs, 10% Wizards, Clippers?...well...you got Drew Gooden.

In related news, the Jazz saved some luxury money by shipping Ronnie Brewer to the Grizz for a first-rounder, the Bucks and 76ers exchanged Gatorade coolers for practice balls and Darko Milicic was traded again, but who really cares about him anymore?

I'll be back in a few days to ramble on about some of the trades that didn't happen, why, and what it could mean for the teams involved. 'Til then, peace.

POWER RANKINGS!!!

As we inch towards the halfway point of the 09-10 season, it's time to take another look at how each team stacks up in the whole scheme of things: here's January's Power Rankings (last month's ranking in brackets)

30 (30) New Jersey Nets

Still on pace to set the record for single-season shittiness, the Nets have been reduced to targets for fantasy owners and tired teams. Thoughts of John Wall and Brooklyn's greener pastures are all they have to hold them over til April.

29 (29) Minnesota Timberwolves

Kevin Love's been a beast since his return last month, but this team still lacks the scoring punch and veteran presence to progress. They're a few seasons away from the playoffs.

28 (25) Golden State Warriors

Now that Andris Biedrins is back on the court they can field a legitimate lineup, but inexperience, inconsistency and defensive neglect will continue to plague them. They have several nice trade pieces and need to do somethng drastic.

27 (21) Detroit Pistons

Someone in the Motor City needs to call a mechanic. The Pistons have dropped ten in a row, mostly by double figures, and lost any sense of identity they might have held. Their $90 million men are playing reserve roles and the media's suddenly (gasp) calling for Joey D's head.

26 (24) Washington Wizards

This team had enough problems before Arenas' armed antics got him indefinitely suspended and shrouded everyone else in distraction. Any kind of turnaround and playoff chase this team could've hoped for now looks about as likely as Javaris Crittenton ever seeing that money Gilbert owes him.

25 (26) Philadelphia 76ers

They got AI back but still can't find any rhythm. Somehow, a group of talented youngsters that was supposed to leap into the East's upper echelon with the addition of Elton Brand has flatlined for a year and a half. It's confusing.

24 (27) Indiana Pacers

They rise by default because they've managed to be slightly less crappy than the teams below them through injuries to ther two best players, and just smoked Orlando at home. Other than that, things have been as irrelevant as usual in Indiana.

23 (28) New York Knicks

The Knicks have managed to play slightly better than I, or anyone else gave them credit for this year. Nate Robinson's once-falling trade stock may be on the rise after he returned from a month-long suspension by single-handedly winning his first game back against the Hawks.

22 (17) Sacramento Kings

They've cooled off a bit since their near-.500 start, but are still waiting for their franchise player to return and fielding two of the top three rookies so far this year. Things in Sac-Town are a lot less bleak than expected this season.

21 (16) Milwaukee Bucks

Now that they're relatively healthy, the Bucks can continue to compete for the final playoff spots in the East. Although they're still young and stole Brandon Jennings last June, I can't help but think a roll of the lottery dice would be better for this team than a first-round walloping.

20 (23) Chicago Bulls

They've steadied themselves after a nightmarish run that saw them lose 8 of 10, take a 30-point L to the Raptors, give up a 35-point lead to the Kings, and nearly cost their coach his job. Derrick Rose's improved play has led the charge back towards a playoff spot.

19 (20) Los Angeles Clippers

The Clips haven't done anything to earn a rise or fall; they've managed to pretty much meet their subdued expectations with a shallow team in a tough conference. The around-the-corner debut of a certain highly-touted rookie will be a needed boost for a stagnant franchise.

18 (18) Charlotte Bobcats

They've been the NBA's proverbial box of chocolates this year; we never know what we're gonna get with them. One night it's an offensively-challenged mess, the next it's a W over the League's hottest team. Either way, they finally look primed to make the franchise's first playoff appearance.

17 (15) New Orleans Hornets

While Peja's bloated and untradeable contract continues to hinder their ability to make a much-needed roster move, they continue to sit in Western Conference purgatory; outside the playoff picture, but not low enough to realistically hope for a high draft pick.

16 (22) Memphis Grizzlies

Once thought to be a litter box for Western contenders, Memphis has assembled perhaps its msot talented team ever and is forcing unsuspecting victims to take notice. Marc Gasol's emergence has leveled the aftermath of his brother's departure, redeeming what was once thought to be among the worst deals in NBA history.

15 (19) Toronto Raptors

Hedo Turkoglu's injury/irrelevance has done little to affect their recent inspired play and improved record. If they had spent that 50 mil on something that actually helped their team, they might have reason to be excited about a recent 6 of 7 win clip, instead of worrying about the looming likelihood that their franchise player will have to be dealt next month.

14 (12) Miami Heat

Pat Riley can publicly blast his team and franchise player all season if he wants, but it won't change the fact that Miami is, at best, the 5-seed in the East and several steps away from a return to contention. It also won't offer Wade any incentive to put up with the rebuilding effort much longer.

13 (9) Utah Jazz

Among the seasons biggest question marks so far is this confounding Jazz squad that wins tough games, loses easy ones, and despite fielding a talented and deep roster, currently sits outside the West playoff bracket. The uncertainty surrounding their plans for Carlos Boozer should subside soon, as he's a near-lock to be traded before the deadline.

12 (14) Oklahoma City Thunder

Making a serious playoff push a year or two before anybody expected them to, they've been the surprise of the season. Durant's been a lethal scorer and mature leader; everything anyone could (any many did) expect of him. You can't help but assume most Thunder fans include Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard in their nightly prayers.

11 (13) Houston Rockets

If they play the Tracy McGrady card well, they can add a couple solid pieces to an already well-balanced roster. Easily boasting the least star power of any Western playoff team, they've beaten/lost close games to many contenders and memories of their near-win against the Lakers last spring will be fresh in minds of any opponent in April.

10 (10) Portland Ailblazers

Illness has stricken this team like no other, claiming their owner, coach (for a minute), and all of their big men, leaving the almighty Juwan Howard as their starting pivot. They've managed to keep their heads above water thanks to the brilliance of Brandon Roy and the emergence of Martell Webster. Keeping it up all year might prove difficult though.

9 (7) Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks started off on a tear but recent meltdowns against the likes of New York, Miami and Chicago have slid them back where they belong; safely 4th in the East. The additons of Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith have added lacking depth, but they'll still be hard-pressed to make a run past the 2nd round.

8 (11) San Antonio Spurs

Somewhat healthier and more cohesive, the Spurs have reeled off 8 of 10 and are starting to look more like the team we expected with Richard Jefferson in the mix. Like Portland however, staying healthy will a tricky and vital task; this team could be an injury away from the lottery in a deep conference.

7 (2) Orlando Magic

Granted they haven't been the healthiest team in the League, but they've been playing some poor basketball, given they boast arguably the deepest roster in the NBA. Dwight's been up and down, Vince has been hobbled and their offense has ben far too reliant on JJ Redick. Last year they responded to injury by making a Finals run, more recently they've sunken to .500 ball and a 3-game losing streak...at the hands of the Bulls, Pacers and Raptors.

6 (6) Phoenix Suns

Still scoring a bunch and paying little regard to defense, they're coherent madness; what the Warriors wish they were. Exciting as it is to watch, I can't help but feel like the window's closed on the Stoudemire/Nash era. This style didn't win them championships when they were more talented, deeper, and at least started one potent defender. There's no reason to expect one now.

5 (7) Dallas Mavericks

With Dirk now echoing my concerns about their lack of an offensive arsenal, the Mavs could be in the market to acquire any of the many players who are sure to be dangled in the coming weeks. Packaging Josh Howard with a lesser might net them Boozer, who would keep defenses much more anchored on the block than Erick Dampier. If Cuban adds a beast in the post and give Diggler, Terry and Kidd more room to operate, they just might be a new threat to the crown.

4 (5) Denver Nuggets

They've been losing games lately - as teams tend to do when their two best players are injured - but there's no reason to assume they're still not the second-best in the West. The only problem for them is that the gap they need to cross to catch the team ahead of them's the biggest one in the top 10.

3 (3) Boston Celtics

It's hard to peg Boston anywhere right now; a part of me's impressed that they've weathered a bunch of key injuries to maintain the best record in the East. But an even bigger part of me's concerned because if any contender has health issues and is an injury away from a premature playoff exit; it's them.

2 (4) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs look a lot more comfortable with their new surroundings than they did a month ago. For all the talk of their soft early schedule, they've been winning the games they need to. Their hit list includes massacres of the Magic, Suns and Lakers, as well as a recent sweep of a home 'n home with Atlanta. If only they could stop losing to the Bobcats...

1(1) Los Angeles Lakers

Their Christmas Day misstep aside, no team's looked as impressive as the Lakers so far this year. Kobe's been lights out and even though Pau's playing on two tender hammys, they're deep enough to limit his minutes and keep him fresh for the playoffs while locking down the 1-seed. It's going to take a lot more than a single loss to the Cavs playing their best ball of the year to convince me that they're not still the favorites.