Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts

Sunday, April 10, 2022

Banter's 2022 NBA Awards


This was a weird fucking NBA season. 

Even if you remove the COVID outbreak that had the league on the verge of a shutdown and rolling out G-League rosters for weeks during the Omicron wave, there was plenty of the unexpected afoot. 

For starters, the two preseason championship favorites both completely imploded for various reasons, with the Nets clinging for dear life to a play-in spot and the Lakers being eliminated entirely.

The early-season adjustments to the new ball and foul rules handcuffed some of the NBA's biggest stars and led to an insane run of Under hits for sports bettors before scoring exploded over the season's second half. 

Teams like the Cavaliers and Raptors came out of nowhere to make the Eastern Conference extremely competitive, while injuries to squads like the Clippers and Nuggets left voids in a normally very top-heavy West.

The Grizzlies somehow finished second in the league despite being a projected play-in team and their fringe MVP candidate missing 20+ games. The Timberwolves are in the thick of the playoff hunt and playing competent defense. The Clippers stayed afloat without either of their superstars for much of the season. The Hawks sucked. The Knicks sucked more. The Wizards were first in the East at one point this season. And, conversely, the Celtics staged one of the biggest mid-season turnarounds in NBA history. 

It's been a fun ride so far, and things should only get better over the coming weeks, with one of the most wide-open and compelling postseason scenarios that have been conjured up in quite some time.

But before we dive into the playoffs, let's take a quick moment to reflect on those that really showed out during the regular season, with the only column I ever seem to write on this blog anymore (you can catch my regular stuff over at Covers.com).

So, in a time-honored tradition, coming to you on tape-delay from a weed-filled basement in Halifax, Nova Scotia, it's Banter's 2022 NBA Awards. Envelopes please...

(All stats as of 4/8.)

Most Improved Player: Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies

Before we get to the awards that were actually a decision this year, let's get a couple out of the way that were absolute layups. 

The meaning of "most improved" can take on many connotations, but historically, the most impressive stride a player can make in the context of this award is The Leap into the stratosphere of a bonafide superstar. 

And Morant made that leap about as loudly as possible this year.

Ja's scoring shot up from 19.1 to 27.6 ppg, in what was, by far, his most efficient shooting season yet. He tacked on career-highs in rebounds, steals and blocks for good measure, averaging 25/5/5 for his third season, which basically doesn't happen unless you are historically good at basketball. Morant's usage rate shot up from 27.2 to 33.8%, while decreasing his turnover rate despite being one of the NBA's most targeted and ambitious playmakers.

Speaking of ambitious, Ja's relentless pursuit of highlights on both ends of the ball produced one of the best single-season mixtapes ever, on par with prime Vince Carter and Blake Griffin. His unique combination of boundless hops, crafty handle, third-eye vision, and sheer audacity leave Grizzlies viewers constantly unsure just what he might pull next.

And there's substance to the style. The Grizzlies were the NBA's second-best team this season, and Ja was a huge part of that (despite their much-ballyhooed success with him injured). Morant gave the Grizzlies a leader to rally behind — his fearlessness, unselfishness and indelible pride in repping for Memphis bled through the entire roster. This group loved playing together, which undoubtedly contributed to arguably the NBA's biggest team success story — and that started at the top.

Garland and Murray get our regards below, and they both had amazing seasons that would've held weight for serious contention in most fields. But Ja was everywhere this year and should be a landslide winner here.

Regards to: Darius Garland, Dejounte Murray

Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro, Miami Heat

This year's 6MOY was one of the easiest awards to decide in recent memory. Herro was the betting odds leader for this award from the very first week of the season. By December, he was an odds-on, meaning he was favored against the rest of the field. By the time most sportsbooks closed Sixth Man markets a couple weeks ago, Herro was listed at -20,000, meaning you would have to wager $20,000 to win $100 betting on him. 

This wasn't even an award race, it was a coronation. 

Herro averaged 20.7 points this season, leading qualifying bench players by over four points per, at a mark that has only been topped once by a qualifying bench player (Lou Williams, 21.9 in 2017-18) in the past 15 years. He kicked in regular huge contributions for the Heat, who were seemingly nursing some sort of key injury at every juncture this season.

But while Herro put up a season that would've wrapped Sixth Man anyway in what's usually a competitive field, nobody else really stepped up to the plate. 

Montrezl Harrell was beasting to start the season, then faded and was traded. Kelly Oubre Jr. got hot for like two weeks in December and plateaued hard after that. Kevin Love played relevant basketball again, but never seemed to get consistent minutes, even with Cleveland's endless onslaught of injuries. Reigning champ Jordan Clarkson's numbers tailed off from last year, as did teammate runner-up Joe Ingles' before suffering a devastating ACL tear.

In this weak of a field, Herro was untouchable off the bench and should win this award unanimously. 

Regards to: Nobody really.

All-Rookie Teams

First Team: Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Josh Giddey, Franz Wagner

Second Team: Ayo Dosunmu, Herbert Jones, Chris Duarte, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun

The First Team is mostly locks. There could be an argument made for Jones over Giddey or Wagner, and I can't fault someone who values Jones' health and defense over Giddey's early-season inefficiency and ultimate injury.

Dosunmu and Jones should be penned in for the Second Team, with the final spots between Duarte, Green, Sengun, Bones Hyland and Davion Mitchell. The latter two are close snubs, with Hyland ultimately not seeing enough floor time, and Mitchell's post-Kings-tank surge coming a bit too late. 

Rookie of the Year: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

This was not fun.

The margins between Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley are close. Like, really, really, sickeningly, I'm-having-sincere-anxiety-about-this-decision-close. Honestly, anyone who gives this award to Mobley: I have no quarrel with you. 

Their stats are painfully similar, even as fundamentally different players. Both averaged damn near 15/8 on 50% from the field with mirroring usage rates; Barnes averaged more steals and assists, Mobley more blocks and rebounds.

Both players posted strong advanced stats profiles for rookies, and again, there's very little to separate the two, but the broader scope begins to paint Scottie as the better overall rookie. While Mobley has a slight edge in RPM, Barnes has the better rating in PER, VORP and win shares, and in FiveThirtyEight's aptly-named RAPTOR metric, Barnes sits 66th while Mobley is almost comically slighted in 163rd. 

Mobley was an amazing defender for a rookie and will likely wind up a close call for the All-Defensive Second Team, but Barnes was also awesome on D, particularly down the stretch. The gap between them isn't as big as some people would have you think 

And while Mobley's brilliance was crucial to an injury-riddled team that over-achieved significantly this season, his narrative isn't too far off what Barnes achieved with Toronto, his surprise campaign every bit as integral to the Raptors' surprise-to-some success. 

Mobley's defense and intangibles are superior, but when so little separates these players and a broad scope of valuable metrics paint Barnes as the better player, having logged more games for what will end up as the better team, it's enough to make the trophy his. 

Regards to: Evan Mobley, Cade Cunningham


Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies

**stands behind COVID-style plastic barrier to avoid rancid vegetables being thrown by outraged readers claiming I'm a homer**

Okay, now that safety measures are in place. 

This award is always one of the toughest to decide, if not because of its arbitrariness then also because there are heaps of deserving candidates every year — this season was no different. 

But what Jenkins accomplished with the Grizzlies was a masterclass in NBA leadership, piloting a team that was supposed to compete for a lower-tier play-in spot to the second-best record in the NBA.

That in and of itself is enough of an overachievement to merit serious COY consideration, but how Jenkins did it was even more impressive. The Grizzlies were without Ja Morant — a borderline MVP candidate and shoe-in All-NBA selection — for 24 games, during which time they went 20-4. Often overlooked because the Grizzlies' depth is so ridiculous was that Dillon Brooks — the team's second-leading scorer and best perimeter defender — missed well over half of the season, too.

I get that the Suns were pretty close to unimpeachable, but their excellence wasn't really a this season thing. They made the fucking NBA Finals last year — we knew this team was really good. Memphis was far less of a sure thing, and its ability to lose a star without missing a beat — for longer and to better results than Phoenix did with Chris Paul — speaks to both Jenkins' creativity and consistency as a bench boss. 

Again, tough race, lots of deserving candidates. This hardly feels like a homer pick.

Regards to: Monty Williams, JB Bickerstaff, Tyronn Lue, Ime Udoka

All-Defensive Teams

First Team: G-Marcus Smart, G-Mikal Bridges, F-Giannis Antetkounmpo, F-Bam Adebayo, C- Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Jrue Holiday, G-Matisse Thybulle, F-Evan Mobley, F-Jaren Jackson Jr., C-Robert Williams III

Smart and Bridges are relatively easy selections as this season's two premiere perimeter ballhawks that saw the floor enough to contend here (sorry, Alex Caruso & Gary Payton II). Antetokounmpo is a no-brainer, and the only real knock against Adebayo is the six weeks he missed, which is tougher to dock a player for in a season where pretty much everyone missed time. We're sliding Adebayo into a forward spot, as he definitely belongs on the First Team, along with Gobert, who also missed time but can't be relegated. 

Thybulle gets the Second Team's first guard spot fairly easily, while Holiday still passes the eye test a bit better than snubs like Patrick Beverley (who's lost a half-step) and Fred VanVleet (who, despite being an apex irritant, simply isn't big enough to close out like Holiday can). JJJ would've had a First Team spot if he'd kept his post-December pace up for the season's first two months, and Williams was, by pretty much any metric, either first or second-best defensive center this year. The last spot goes to Mobley, a preternatural defender who somehow finished seventh in DRPM as a rookie, in a close call over Jarred Vanderbilt and Pascal Siakam.

Defensive Player of the Year: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

Full transparency: I'm writing my DPOY from an airport bar at 7am on my way to Cancun — if it seems like I mailed this one in a bit, that's why.

Another difficult award to decide, only this time it's because nobody really has an iron-clad case here. 

Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green spent the majority of this season trading blows as the two heavy favorites, but then both of them got hurt in late January, with their teams' defenses promptly going to shit as a result. While the effects only underscore the importance of these two dudes to their respective teams' resistances, Draymond ultimately missed too much time, while Utah's defense remained fairly bad even when Gobert returned. 

In their wakes, Marcus Smart and Bam Adebayo made late charges over season-long contenders Giannis Antetokounmpo and Mikal Bridges. While Smart and Bridges both pass the ye test with flying colors, metrics do little to support their case as the best defender on their own teams, let alone in the entire league. We can't lean purely on stats, especially in defensive realms, but they can help clear murky waters.

Antetokounmpo was his usual brilliant self, but Milwaukee's never been worse on defense in his prime, and stopped playing it entirely for a solid month in February-March before flipping the switch late in the season. 

That leaves us with Adebayo, who, despite missing close to six weeks with a thumb injury, was arguably both the most diverse and impactful defender in the league for a Top-5 defense that was arguably the league's best at full strength.

There's your DPOY. Now, back to my Caesar.

Regards to: Marcus Smart, Rudy Gobert

All-NBA Teams

First Team: G-Luka Doncic, G-Devin Booker, F- Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Joel Embiid, C-Nikola Jokic

Second Team: G-Ja Morant, G-DeMar DeRozan, F-Jayson Tatum, F-Kevin Durant, C-Karl-Anthony Towns

Third Team: G-Stephen Curry, G-Chris Paul, F-LeBron James, F-Pascal Siakam, C-Rudy Gobert

Joker, Embiid and Giannis were the three best players in the NBA this season — they all need to be on the First Team. You'll probably note that Embiid doesn't play forward. The league has made him and Jokic eligible at the position erroneously, as a loophole, because they know shoehorning us into position-specific voting that leaves one of the two best players on the Second Team is extremely ridiculous. 

Doncic was nuclear over the second half, and even his "slow start" was still an All-NBA-worthy effort. Booker gets the last First Team spot in a close call over Morant and DeRozan, with Ja missing a bit too much time and DeMar's Bulls semi-imploding in the second half. 

Thus, Morant and DeRozan slot in on the second team, easily joined, in my mind at least, by Tatum — who made yet another staggered leap in this season's second half and is now inarguably a Top-10 player. Durant should be here too; he missed a lot of time but was possibly still the best player around when healthy. And Towns not only delivered another steller offensive campaign, but his best on defense, which helped define Minnesota's success.

Curry was the MVP odds favorite early in the season, but then he had his worst shooting month in recent memory and, on the heels of that, got injured. He has to be docked, but not too much. Paul takes the last guard spot in a close call over Donovan Mitchell, Fred VanVleet and Trae Young, partly because he's still awesome and partly because Phoenix kinda needs a second guy here. They were that good. 

Siakam had the best season of his career and was a diverse threat on both sides of the ball, often playing out of position at center and unlocking the lineups Toronto thrived with. LeBron's here in spite of the Lakers being a total tire fire this season, because there's only so much you can blame a guy who averaged 30/8/6 on efficient shooting. Gobert takes the last spot in relatively close call over Bam Adebayo and Jarrett Allen.

Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Again, a really difficult award to decide. Joker and Embiid battled in an epic joust across the season's second half, with Giannis demanding inclusion in the discussion down the stretch.

And while Embiid and Freak had seasons that were nothing short of historic, Jokic, again, should stand alone on the MVP pedestal. 

The cliche argument for Jokic is also the most damning for everyone else: Basically every single catch-all advanced stat says he's the best player in the league. PER. Plus-Minus (both real and box). Win shares.VORP. RAPTOR. It doesn't matter where you look, Jokic's name tops the list. And while most metrics have inherent flaws and can present biases, when every single one of them points in the same direction, it's usually a sign. 

Jokic was a one-man army for a Nuggets squad that essentially was missing its second- and third-best players for the entire season. He dragged Denver's injury-riddled roster to competitive results night in and out, squeezing damn near 50 wins out of a team with no other 15+ ppg scorers, and raising his teammates' floors in ways even Embiid and Antetokounmpo couldn't claim.

Even on the most basic levels, Jokic's stats profile is just godly. 27/14/8 on .661 true shooting is absurdly efficient production, such that Jokic is going to set the single-season record for PER, besting Wilt Chamberlain's 1961-62 season when he averaged 244 points and 87 rebounds per game (Editor's Note: numbers possibly exaggerated).

And while many Jokic detractors point to his ostensible reputation as a leak on defense, the evidence they can pcall on is drying up. Jokic registered another season near the top of several key defensive metrics, including leading the NBA in both defensive win shares and DBPM while finishing Top 5 in defensive rating and sixth in DRPM. Joker was also tenth in the league in steals this season for good measure. I acknowledge that those numbers are kind to Jokic and he's not necessarily an All-Defensive candidate, but let's get over the fallacy that not being an elite rim protector makes him a bad defender. 

Another close call and painful choice, but Jokic feels like the right call here. And in a season that will hopefully be defined by another wide-open title chase, it's fitting to have the MVP rest fairly uncertain.

Regards to: Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Banter's 2020 NBA Awards

So, clearly this isn't how we expected the season to go.

2019-20 was perhaps the most bittersweet several months in NBA history. A season flooded with compelling storylines and newfound competitive parity was derailed by the tragic passings of two straight-up legends in David Stern and Kobe Bryant, before ultimately being stranded in purgatory by COVID-19.

While the season remains on pause and the league scrambles to cobble a contingency plan for this totally unprecedented situation, us fans are left to wait under an anxious blanket of uncertainty.

If this season is in fact ever completed - which given the USA's alarming response to the pandemic seems increasingly less likely - it will be drastically curtailed. Everything from a shortened offseason to a play-in tournament and 3-game series are being tabled for a playoff format. As a wise man once said; "desperate times call for desperate measures".

In the meantime, there remains the not-so-trivial subject of the NBA's regular season awards, and what the hell to do about those. Given the anticipated COVID timelines (regardless of Trump's blindly optimistic projections), it seems pretty safe to assume that the regular season, as we know it, is over.

With that being the case, and because frankly I'm pretty bored without any basketball to watch, now seems like a good time to roll out Banter's picks for the 2020 NBA Awards. So without further ado, envelopes please...

ALL-ROOKIE TEAMS

First Team: Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, Kendrick Nunn, Brandon Clarke, Tyler Herro

Second Team: RJ Barrett, Coby White, Eric Paschall, De'Andre Hunter, Terence Davis 


ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: JA MORANT, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
There's sure to be a growing narrative around message board conspiracy theorists that Corona screwed Zion Williamson; that if the regular season had finished, he would've gained enough momentum - possibly dragging the Pelicans into the playoffs - to topple Morant's claim.

It's an unfortunate circumstance. Had Zion played a full season, he probably would have won Rookie of the Year, what with his endless highlights, over-performing team, and transcendent, ahead-of-his-years play.

But, in reality, while Zion accomplished those feats for six weeks, Morant did all the same things from Day One. He galvanized a team that was universally considered lottery fodder, sparking the NBA's biggest surprise, best feel-good story, and a League Pass MVT contender.

Morant led all rookies in points and assists by a mile; showcasing an offensive game that's as dynamic and lethal as it is flashy. He gets into the paint at will, is already an elite finisher, and has both the vision and audacity to hit open men anywhere. While he wasn't an amazing defender (rookie PGs seldom are), he showed the tenacity and awareness that will form a solid foundation on D.

Only bolstering Ja's argument is his team's narrative; the Grizzlies leapfrogging to playoff contenders, with Morant as their unquestioned leader. While team success typically doesn't define an ROY season, it certainly enhances a contender's performance when he's the main catalyst.

Morant comfortably cleared averages of 17 points and 6.5 assists on 45% shooting. These may not seem like eye-popping numbers, until you isolate them and realize that Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson are the only other rookies ever to do so.

Regards To: Zion Williamson, Kendrick Nunn, Brandon Clarke

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: MONTREZL HARRELL, LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
This may seem unoriginal given that I'm running back last year's winner, but to hell with voter fatigue, Trez was equally deserving this season.

Harrell's season was a heightened version of last year, in which he (as mentioned) won Banter's 6MOY award, and finished third in the actual voting. 2019-20 saw him boost his scoring and rebounding averages (in virtually the same amount of playing time), only now flanked by two All-NBA players, who surely cannibalized points and rebounds organically.

Trez's advanced stats and efficiency indicators are all startlingly similar to his 2018-19 marks. Some slight fluctuations are natural with variance, but he was essentially the same player, only on a much improved team. It was the same smart, brutally effective hustle from Harrell, night in and out.

That he maintained those production levels adds credence to his Sixth Man candidacy; able to make the same contributions to a contender as a team overachieving as an 8-seed. Think of it like a kid skipping a grade and still getting the same marks, or a boxer fighting up a weight class and maintaining his record. 

He finished third in bench scoring, third in FG%, fifth in rebounds, and led all bench players in PER with a 23.17 mark that ranked 20th league-wide. Another close call for Clippers teammates, but Trez deserves the nod this year.

Regards To: Dennis Schroder, Lou Williams, Derrick Rose 


MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: LUKA DONCIC, DALLAS MAVERICKS

There seems to be an annual furor about the context of this award and what exactly it means to have "improved". There are a ton of interpretations, but many (myself included) contend that a player making "The Leap" - clearly evolving into a bonafide star - is the most impressive argument an MIP candidate can make.


There were no shortage of Leaps around the NBA this year, but the most impressive came from Doncic.

Skeptics might infer that Luka was bound for greatness, and that this type of progress from him was expected, if not preordained. To me, it's a weak rebuttal.

Yes, Doncic seemed destined for greatness after 2018's third-overall pick put on a historic rookie campaign that saw him drop the rarefied 20/5/5 line reserved for Hall-of-Fame talent (or Tyreke Evans). But for him to be this good, this soon, is entirely unexpected and unprecedented.

His basic popcorn stats shot up from 21.2/7.8/6 to 28.7/9.3/8.7, rounding out arguably the league's most robust basic line. His eFG% rose almost 10% to .531, despite him shouldering an increased load on offense (usage rate up 21%), and being one of the league's most-targeted players by opposing defenses. Through all this, his turnover rate decreased slightly, while all of his major advanced metrics rose noticeably on both sides of the ball.

Largely as a result of Doncic's precocious stardom, Dallas over-performed for much of the season. Expected to scrap for the final playoff spots, the Mavs were postseason locks by Christmas, sporting (*double-checks stat sheet*) the best team offensive rating in NBA history.

Doncic, already a star by most definitions, confidently entered the NBA's pantheon this season. He's going to be an All-NBA first-teamer, and will likely place top-5 in MVP voting. To be accomplishing this at 21 years of age - regardless of pedigree - is simply amazing.

We all knew Luka was going to be good, but this type of career arc is indicative of an all-time talent. As the league's burgeoning global popularity prepares for its post-LeBron era, it's safe to assume Doncic is more than capable of leading the new school.

Regards To: Bam Adebayo, Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum 

ALL-DEFENSE TEAMS

First Team: G-Patrick Beverley, G-Ben Simmons, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Anthony Davis, C-Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Eric Bledsoe, G-Marcus Smart, F-OG Anunoby, F-Bam Adebayo, C-Brook Lopez



DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS
All jokes aside about reigning DPOY Rudy Gobert having "shut down the entire league";

Giannis put together an absolute juggernaut defensive season. Statistically speaking, it was very similar to last year, but the Jazz's inconsistency and Milwaukee's defensive dominance have put the spotlight where it should be.

Basically every metric points to Giannis being the NBA's best defender. He led the league in D-rating, D-win shares and DBPM this year. In doing so, he led Milwaukee to within a hair of being (statistically speaking) the best defense in league history.

Giannis is also beyond a doubt the most versatile defender in today's game, and arguably ever. He's able to switch seamlessly between assignments; a prototype for a league trending towards position-less ball. He can smother any player, anywhere on the court, acing the eye test in an unprecedented way.

The only even potential knock on Antetokounmpo's case for DPOY is that his steal and block %s are down slightly from last year. And it's really tough to count that against him when he still averaged one of each, and led all qualifying players in opponent FG% at the rim.

Gobert may have been the poster boy for the COVID outbreak, but Giannis has been shutting the league down since November.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, Ben Simmons


COACH OF THE YEAR: NICK NURSE, TORONTO RAPTORS
As usual, the Coach of the Year race was a melee this year, with at least five or six bench bosses meriting consideration for an abstract and very subjective award. But in the end, the trophy should go to Nurse, and it's not particularly close.

My basic logic for this award usually comes down to three questions:

- Who did the most with the least?
- Who overcame the most adversity? and,
- Which successful team owes the most to coaching?

In the context of this season, Nurse has to be at or near the top of all three of those criteria. Nobody could have blamed the Raptors for sliding down the standings after losing playoff demigod Kawhi Leonard in free agency. But instead, Nurse piloted them to a better winning percentage than last season (albeit one in which Leonard load-managed his way to 22 DNPs).

What makes that pace even more astonishing are all the potholes along the way. Toronto has been perpetually-injured this season, with, literally, every member of their rotation shuffling in-and-out of the lineup on a seemingly nightly basis.

All of this would submarine just about any team's season. Per Sportsnet via ManGamesLost, the Raptors led the NBA in win shares lost to injury. Obviously this depleted Toronto's talent pool, and gave them fewer options in terms of lineup diversity.

It also crushed any sense of continuity on the roster, as players spun in and out of floor-mates like a square dance at the Legion. Nurse was forced to not only mix-and-match new rotations weekly, but trust some of his younger and unproven players in key roles.

Things worked almost flawlessly. OG Anunoby and Norman Powell had career years. Terence Davis stood out among several out-of-nowhere rookies. Chris Boucher was very encouraging in his rotational debut. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson became serviceable again. Matt Thomas provided several relevant stints.

And the leaps made by already-established Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have solidified the core around which the Raptors can build their future.

All that speaks to the amazing developmental culture that Nurse and his staff have instilled, yet another reason why he's the clear winner this season. One can only hope that a fully-healthy Raptors roster will eventually get the chance to defend their crown.

Regards To: Billy Donovan, Taylor Jenkins, Mike Budenholzer

ALL-NBA TEAMS

First Team: G-Luka Doncic, G-James Harden, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-LeBron James, C-Nikola Jokic

Second Team: G-Damian Lillard, G-Chris Paul, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Anthony Davis, C-Bam Adebayo

Third Team: G-Russell Westbrook, G-Ben Simmons, F-Jayson Tatum, F-Pascal Siakam, C-Joel Embiid


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS 
Yes, I'm giving Giannis the MVP/DPOY double-dip for the second year in a row. Not because I'm lazy or fanboying him, but because he's simply been that good.

Much respect to what LeBron James is somehow still doing in Year 17 against every notion of athletic decline that we hold. If there were a "Still Got It" award, he would sweep. But suggesting that he was better than Antetokounmpo over the course of this season is asinine.

Let's start with basic stats: Giannis put up a ridiculous line of 29.6/13.7/5.8 this year, adding one block and steal each for good measure. In today's popular (but flawed) context of comparing players' stat lines across eras, Giannis is singular. He's the only player in NBA history to ever do those numbers.

His advanced stats paint an equally-dominant picture: Giannis led the league in usage %, BPM, Defensive Rating and Win Shares per 48, finishing top-3 in a litany of other metrics. He tied for the fifth-best all-time PER, behind a single season from LeBron (08-09), and entries from Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.

It's nothing short of historic. Giannis has a very realistic shot at joining Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon as the only players ever to win MVP and DPOY in the same season. Compound that with back-to-back MVPs at age 25, and Giannis is putting together a legacy resume that - championships pending - projects him among the game's all-time greats (I'm talking the top 10-15 range) when all is said and done.

The Bucks' dominance this season is only another facet to Giannis' MVP case. Milwaukee was among the very best regular-season teams ever: a top-5 all-time net rating, and only Giannis' late injury derailing their pace to flirt with the hallowed 70-win mark.

Unfortunately, we may never know how that dominance would have translated to the playoffs. But either way, Giannis will add some more hardware to his trophy case after an all-time season.

Regards To: LeBron James, Luka Doncic, James Harden

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Banter's 2019 NBA Awards

Welcome, one and all to Basketball Banter's 2019 NBA Awards!

Obviously, it's been a while since I've posted on here; my last Banter post was 2018's Awards, exactly a year ago today.

I unfortunately have less time for writing these days, and that quota is largely devoted to my Memphis Grizzlies work for Beale Street Bears. But I felt inspired to knock the dust off my Blogger account this week, and toss my 2019 awards picks (however insignificantly) into the internet zeitgeist.

Let's get into it (stats accurate as of 04/10):

All-Rookie Teams
First Team: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander



Second Team: Jaren Jackson Jr, Mitchell Robinson, Collin Sexton, Kevin Knox, Kevin Huerter



ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: LUKA DONCIC
With his soggy build and lack of athleticism, many pundits questioned Doncic's NBA impact, despite him having dominated the World's second-best basketball league as a teenager.

It took just games for him to silence even the staunchest critics. Within weeks he was an internet phenomenon. By December, he was being compared to the best rookies ever. And by 2019, he was a nightly threat to drop a triple-double.

The end result is an absolute romp of a debut: 21.2/7.8/6.0. For context, Doncic averaged more points, assists and rebounds than LeBron James did in his rookie year, despite playing 23% fewer minutes per game. He also topped Rookie LeBron in most major advanced metrics.

Doncic was a one-man offense; converting on high-difficulty shots and passes time and again. His pedigree and instant success denied him any early grace period where a rookie is taken lightly. Guys went at him from the get.

The Rookie 20/5/5 Club is pretty exclusive: Doncic and James join Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and for some reason Tyreke Evans. Unless we're being guided by the outlier, this is indicative of a generational talent.

Much respect to Trae Young, who went completely nuclear over the season's second half, triggering a surprisingly-competent Hawks turnaround (despite being the NBA's literal worst defender). Notwithstanding, Doncic's rookie season was one of the finest on record; pure piff from the first tip.

Regards To: Trae Young, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley


SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: MONTREZL HARRELL

Ironically, this award mainly comes down to two teammates. Un-ironically, they both hail from the scrappy, star-less overachievers that were this season's Los Angeles Clippers.

Lou Williams is a two-time former 6MOY winner, who dropped 20/game this year and was constant offense for a team that had often had no alpha scorer.

But if you dig a little deeper than points, Harrell's all-around impact on the Clippers is not debatable. He led the entire team in VORP, BPM, DBPM, win-shares, and PER (among qualifying players, sorry Boban). He also posted significantly higher ratings than Williams on both sides of the ball.

While there's plenty of blame to go around for the Clippers' refusal to die this season, many of the numbers paint Harrell as the chief culprit. His rugged hustle, relentless motor and consistent, high-IQ play were a model for the rest of L.A. (the Clippers, at least) to follow.

Regards To: Lou Williams, Domantas Sabonis, Derrick Rose



COACH OF THE YEAR: MIKE MALONE

As it's consistently been in years past, Coach of the Year was a bastion of arbitrariness again this year, fought for by several deserving candidates.

I can't knock a vote for Nate McMillan, who dragged the Pacers to another over-achieving season despite a slew of injuries. Nor for Doc Rivers, who Frankensteined a playoff team out of the Clippers' attempted rebuild.

Fringe contenders like Dave Jeorger, Kenny Atkinson, Nick Nurse and Steve Clifford also hold weight, but two candidates stand above the rest here: Mike Budenholzer, and Malone.

All due respect to Budenholzer, but I generally feel Milwaukee's season is as much an indictment of previous coaching as it is his triumph. It's also a massive chicken-or-egg race between he and Executive of the Year contender Jon Horst.

Last year's Bucks were a stacked squad that was highly maligned and misused. Adding Brook Lopez and a couple other pieces unlocked their potential, but spacing the floor around a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo is pretty basic stuff.

What sets Malone apart is how multi-faceted his performance was. The Nuggets were primed to make a leap this year, but many had them pegged for a mid-playoff team. Instead they jostled with the Warriors atop the West for months, despite prolonged absences to several key players.

Malone got the Nuggets to play top-10 defense, turning everyone's preseason concern about them into a strength. He milked max value out of former nobodies like Malik Beasley, Torrey Craig and Monte Morris, the latter of whom is now among the NBA's best backup PGs. And he maintained consistent success amid a violently oscillating lineup structure, with guys like Gary Harris out every other night, Trey Lyles wildly inconsistent, and Isaiah Thomas ultimately a dud.

Lots of deserving campaigns again, but Malone perhaps did the most with the least, and it was more than anyone - even at full strength - expected of Denver.

Regards to: Mike Budenholzer, Nate McMillan, Doc Rivers


MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: PASCAL SIAKAM
What after a few weeks looked like De'Aaron Fox's award to lose was snared by Siakam's out-of-nowhere ascent to likely future All-Star. Fox could've put up a fight, but he staggered a bit as the season went on, along with the Kings' playoff hopes.

Conversely Siakam became a breakout sensation for a Raptors team that went almost half the season missing Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, or both. They still managed to win almost 60 games, buoyed by amazing depth and Siakam's two-way brilliance.

Siakam's numbers surged across the board, including a leap from .508 to .549 shooting, despite almost doubling his attempts per game, and certainly commanding more attention from defenders. Siakam was indispensable on D himself, one of the league's most switchable players, with long limbs, ridiculous motor, and an increasing sense of awareness.

Siakam's case is more bolstered by Toronto's success, and the organic nature of his development therein. Nothing was ascribed about his role this season, nor was there much room for error in the pressure cooker of a Leonard contract year.

What Siakam's given the Raptors is instant Leonard insurance. If Kawhi stays, they'll have one of the scariest frontcourts in the NBA. But even if he leaves, Toronto might not be in such bad shape.

Regards To: De'Aaron Fox, D'Angelo Russell, Paul George


All-Defense Teams
First Team: G-Marcus Smart, G-Jrue Holiday, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Eric Bledsoe, G-Patrick Beverley, F-Derrick Favors, F-Anthony Davis, C-Myles Turner


DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO
Lots of people are going to try and give this award to somebody else, on account of Antetokounmpo's MVP-esque campaign, and that somehow cannibalizing his case here.

If you're looking at the DPOY race impartially, it has to go to either Antetokounmpo, or reigning champ Rudy Gobert. And there are mere hairs between them as candidates. Both are ultimate disruptions, who shoulder each other at or near the top of every major defensive metric, and anchor the NBA's two best team defenses. Both grab a ton of rebounds, and avg 2.5-3 stocks per game.

While Gobert is both the ultimate deterrent and penalty against ill-advised forays to the rim, Giannis is a shape-shifting eraser, who can lock up swingmen as easily as snuff the league's best center. His position-amorphous style is increasingly indicative of NBA trends, and thus of great advantage to the Bucks, who can switch him onto literally any attacker, and bust up otherwise-commonplace pick-n-rolls. It's not an exaggeration that Antetokounmpo is the NBA's single most versatile defender.

As recently as last month, Giannis had a decent edge. Gobert made an impressive late season rally to tighten the individual metrics gap, pull Utah to 50 wins, and nudge them right behind Milwaukee in team defense.

It's at least made the decision extremely difficult, but if we're judging the entire body of work here, and analyzing within the context of an increasingly perimeter-oriented league, Giannis wins by the slimmest of margins.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Paul George, Myles Turner


All-NBA Teams
First Team: G-James Harden, G-Stephen Curry, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul George, C-Joel Embiid

Second Team: G-Damian Lillard, G-Kyrie Irving, F-Kevin Durant, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Nikola Jokic

Third Team: G-Bradley Beal, G-Russell Westbrook, F-Blake Griffin, F-LeBron James, C-Rudy Gobert


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO

This was tough. This was really, really tough. Honestly, I'd have voted for co-MVP between Giannis and James Harden if I could, but that's too much of a cop-out.

Harden pulled possibly the biggest "Team On My Back" in NBA history. The Rockets confounded the entire NBA with their ineptitude over the season's first two months, but Harden righted the ship with a simply staggering offensive display.

Let the record show that he averaged almost 44 points for an entire fucking month, and had teams literally opening driving lanes for him to prevent his patented step-back three.

Even amid his exaggerated sometimes-sleepy defense, Harden's contributions were Herculean. His 36 ppg average is the most ever by someone not named Michael Jordan or Wilt Chamberlain; his game log peppered with triple-doubles and single-handed victories. As a result, Houston skyrocketed (sorry) from the West's basement to a homecourt seed, without both Chris Paul and Clint Capela for long stretches. It was nothing short of a historic season.

But Antetokounpo's case is just too bulletproof. He too had a historic year; the first guy to post averages of 27/12/5 in over 50 years. Of that rarefied list - on which he joins four straight-up NBA legends - Giannis posted by far the best eFG%, adding all-World defense for good measure. He sits neck-and-neck with Harden atop virtually every major advanced stat, bolstering one of the finest all-around statistical displays ever.

With two all-time great seasons placing Harden vs Antetokounmpo head & shoulders above the rest, Freak has the decisive edge in two areas:

1 - Defense. Harden's defensive commitment wanes from night to night, and even play to play. He's capable of heads-up stopping, but often mails in plays to save himself in between offensive possessions. As noted above, Antetokounmpo was (in my opinion) the NBA's best defender this year.

2 - Dominance. Houston was a total train wreck for the season's first six weeks, which definitely  can't be ignored. The Bucks' season was unimpeachable from the get; owning the NBA's best record and net rating, largely because of Giannis, and the system his unique physique and skill set permit.

It seems like robbery for Harden yet again. This could be his third narrow MVP loss in the past four years. But Giannis' steady ascent to the NBA's very peak reached its destination this season. He's 24 years old; his best is still yet to come.

Regards To: James Harden, Paul George, Joel Embiid

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Basketball Banter's 2018 NBA Awards

Coming to you live from my parents' place where I'm recovering from foot surgery, it's the 2018 Basketball Banter Awards!

Let's face it; you're not here for an intro. You're going to read fourteen awards columns this week anyway, most with intros saying more or less the same thing. I'll spare you the agony here; on with the show:

ALL-ROOKIE TEAMS
FIRST
G-Ben Simmons, G-Donovan Mitchell, F-Kyle Kuzma, F-Jayson Tatum, C-Lauri Markkanen

SECOND
G-Dennis Smith Jr, G-Bogdan Bogdanovic, F-Dillon Brooks, F-John Collins, C-Jarrett Allen

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - BEN SIMMONS
In a harvest plentiful of talent, two first year (technically) phenoms rose above the rest and made this award truly painful to figure out. The beef is legit here; it's a very close race.

In one corner, Donovan Mitchell single-handedly saved Utah's season, coming out of nowhere as a dynamic lead scorer on a team bereft of offense. His unlikely role in the Jazz's equally-unlikely ascension to homecourt in the West is a convenient narrative.

But there's also Simmons, who despite his much-trumpeted aversion to threes does so much at an elite level right from the get.

He's already one of the NBA's best playmakers, with that rare  LeBron/Nash/Rubio third eye for passing lanes. He's lethal off the dribble; a soft finisher who's too long for guards and too quick for bigs. And on D he's a prototypical uber-stopper who can switch between all positions and is highly mismatch-proof.

His numbers are unique and speak for themselves. Unlike virtually all top picks, he earned his for a playoff team that - pending Joel Embiid's return - will be terrifying for a core making its postseason debut.

Regards To: Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Kyle Kuzma

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR - LOU WILLIAMS 

Any time a sixth man is legitimately part of the All-Star discussion (let alone in a conference as
talent-packed as the West), this award is pretty much a wrap.

The Clippers were hit with wave after wave of injuries and seismic trades this year. Nightly they trotted out hastily-cobbled replacement rosters whose anonymity quickly became a running joke in NBA circles.

Yet somehow they remained competitive far longer than conceivable, clawing for a playoff berth until the season's final days. Doc Rivers seriously redeemed himself as a coach, but Williams was indispensable as go-to offense while Blake Griffin was either injured or traded. Lou BBQ'ed just about every team in the league during a Dec-Jan stretch that ranked among the season's loudest statements by any team or player.

Sure, he's not exactly a stout defender, and the Clippers did end up missing the playoffs. But this award has never been about two-way play or team success. Lou only checks a couple boxes, but does them with enough force to make this a landslide win.

Regards To: Fred VanVleet, Eric Gordon, Will Barton

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER - VICTOR OLADIPO

The most obvious of the award winners is also perhaps the most unlikely. Oladipo arrived in Indiana with his career firmly in neutral after several seasons of Orlando’s dysfunction and Russell Westbrook’s megalomania. He had the pedigree of a #2 pick, but doubts were beginning to grow that any upside remained.

We'll never know exactly what got to Vic. Maybe it was one too many look-offs from Russ. Maybe it was hearing all summer how badly Indiana was ostensibly robbed for Paul George. Whatever it was, something....changed.

Like he stumbled across a video game power-up, Oladipo ascended overnight to a level none of us knew he had. He was dropping 20+ nightly on more efficient shooting clips, while also raising his stats across the board; enough so in steals to lead the league.

Oladipo's emancipation coincided with the Pacers' wholly-unforeseen return to the West playoffs. He firmly claimed Indiana's top-dog status before Myles Turner could even get back on the court. As a result, the George trade has been heavily re-evaluated (word to Domantas Sabonis), and Indiana's "rebuild" lasted only a couple of weeks. 

Regards To: Spencer Dinwiddie, Demar DeRozan, Andre Drummond

ALL-DEFENSE TEAMS
FIRST
G-Chris Paul, G-Jimmy Butler, F-Draymond Green, F-Anthony Davis, C-Rudy Gobert

SECOND
G-Ben Simmons, G-Jrue Holiday, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Kevin Durant, C-Joel Embiid

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - ANTHONY DAVIS
Very strange year for DPOY voting. Kawhi Leonard - the default pick - played in like two games. Draymond Green - the reigning champ - spent many games in cruise control, and had his candidacy largely neutered  by his own teammate.

Rudy Gobert - who was widely-regarded as being an injury-free season away from the award - inevitably got injured. What this award comes down to is whether anyone else did enough to outweigh the 26 games he missed.

Some may see Gobert's impact as undeniable for a Jazz team that played within a hair of the league's best defensive rating and far exceeded projections. But Davis was just too much of a force, particularly over the back half of the season when he turned the NBA into his own Marvel movie.

Brow led the league in blocks by a mile, while finishing fifth in rebounds and 15th in steals. If the raw numbers don't impress enough, he was third in defensive win shares, and 11th in defensive rating. He was also practically the only Pelican with over 50 appearances and a positive DBPM (Jrue Holiday's 0.3 hardly counts).

A motivated Davis is also one of the rare players whose absurd numbers still betray "eye test" intangibles. The Brow offers dynamic disruption unlike few others; a high-IQ stopper with an apex combination of length and quick leaping, who can close out on a quick wing just as easily as he can erase a floater or smother a low-post brute.

It was long-posited that Davis had all the tools to become a revolutionary stopper. He hasn't even given us the full treatment yet, but in this season of would-be candidates, it's enough for the trophy.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green/Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid



COACH OF THE YEAR - BRAD STEVENS 
Trying to sort out coach of the year is always s bit of a mindfuck, since it’s arguably the most arbitrary of all the awards, and usually predicated on some unforeseen circumstance altering a team’s season (#narratives). 

This year was especially difficult with a litany of coaches running convincing campaigns: Terry Stotts defied expectations again by piloting the Blazers to the top of the West’s bloated midsection. Nate McMillan did the same with the Pacers in the East, in an even less likely case. Dwayne Casey re-animated Toronto’s offense, unearthing the NBA’s best bench in the process.

Quin Snyder dealt with his usual onslaught of injuries, keeping the lotto-projected Jazz competitive. Doc Rivers went from "how does he still have a job" to "how is his team still in the playoff hunt". And even reigning champ Mike D’Antoni put on an epic title defense, withstanding injuries to both his stars while snaring the seemingly-untouchable #1 seed from Golden State.  

But Stevens was Optimus Prime this year. The Celtics have absolutely zero business being anywhere near the East’s #1 seed. Not after flipping 2/3 of their roster, losing Gordon Hayward five minutes into the season, and having their last month torpedoed by injuries to their best player and whole rotation. 

There’s a mounting body of evidence that suggests Stevens is the NBA’s neo-Popovich: from his teams annually exceeding expectation, to his X and Os wizardry, maximization of unconventional lineups, and the ongoing regressions of players Boston trades away. One could make the argument that Stevens is beginning to deserve the same default vote of confidence many voters have awarded Pop for years. 

Weigh the result of his season against all the obstacles he faced, and it’s tough to compute a different winner for this award.

Regards To: Quin Snyder, Nate McMillan, Terry Stotts

ALL NBA TEAMS
FIRST
G-James Harden, G-Damian Lillard, F-LeBron James, F-Kevin Durant, C-Anthony Davis

SECOND

G-Russell Westbrook, G-Demar DeRozan, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-LaMarcus Aldridge C-Joel Embiid

THIRD 
G-Chris Paul, G-Victor Oladipo, F-Jimmy Butler, F-Karl-Anthony Towns, C-Al Horford

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER - JAMES HARDEN 
And so, the odyssey of a player who seemed destined for Susan Lucci status after several seasons of narrow MVP misses is capped.

While LeBron James and Anthony Davis both mounted formidable late rallies and made this award at least a debate, ultimately Harden's candidacy had built itself too strong a stratosphere to be punctured.

Davis responded to DeMarcus Cousins' injury with a catastrophic 30/12/3.5blk/1.5stl post-All Star
split that has - against all likelihood - kept the Pelicans in the playoffs. LeBron had flat-out one of the best seasons in a 15-year career that is unequaled in the longevity of its all-around dominance.

On the flip side, when Cousins was healthy, Davis wasn't even the Pelicans' best player for stretches. And LeBron's agelessness aside, this season was a multi-faceted disaster for the rest of the Cavs, which - fair or not - kind of hurts his case.

Harden meanwhile has meshed seamlessly with Chris Paul, without giving up an iota of his role as Houston's driving force. His assists and rebound numbers dipped (natural with Paul's arrival and Clint Capela's emergence), but Harden's 31/5/9 line is a monster output, on a sublime .620 TS%.

For those unimpressed by "popcorn stats", he demolished advanced metrics, leading the league in win shares, PER, BPM and USG%, finishing behind only LeBron in VORP.

All this while powering a 66-win juggernaut that did the almost-unthinkable in nabbing the West's #1 seed from Golden State, despite on-the-low not being so healthy themselves.

Reputation nods aside, it was Harden's turn this year, and he made a case that was impossible to ignore.

Regards To: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard