Showing posts with label Stephen Curry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stephen Curry. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Rubber Soul: Cavs-Warriors Part III


So we've finally arrived at a 2017 Finals matchup that was preordained the moment Kevin Durant joined the dark side.

After a quasi-inconsequential regular season, we were treated to the least suspenseful playoffs in recent memory, hurt not only by the obviousness of its destination, but everything from Toronto's indifference to Zaza Pachulia's defensive fundamentals.

We can lament what could've been over the past few months, but instead let's focus on the legendary potential of what's about to unfold in front of us.

To start, we're going to see a Finals rubber match for the first time in history. Never happened. Not even in the multiple epochs of Celtic-Laker rivalries (they've squared off in back-to-back years on four separate occasions). So that's pretty cool, if not slightly redundant.

The perpetual battle has spawned some not-so-awesome sentiment between these teams, which will make for peak intensity, and increased potential for hilarious animosity-fueled antics (especially when the likes of JR Smith and Javale McGee are involved).

This epic rivalry should also inspire great basketball porn from two simply remarkable teams. The symphony of offensive destruction - orchestrated by likely the NBA's three biggest superstars - should be a classic.

So let's get the obvious out of the way first: YES the Cavaliers do have a chance in this series, just not an incredibly good one.

Golden State completely decimated the West bracket, sporting not only a flawless record, but the highest point differential in playoff history; they certainly look unbeatable. That said, who could've realistically challenged them? The Blazers were a .500 team (#blowoutfodder). The Jazz were (obviously) below full-strength and couldn't have hoped to score with GSW. The Spurs became the first team ever to lose a playoff series while being up 23 in Game 1. The Warriors have been tested very poorly thus far.

The Cavs pose the first serious threat that Golden State has seen all season. After cruising through their schedule like an Easy Rider scene, they'll get their first taste of Fury Road, though it's unclear just how rough things will get for them.

We know that theoretically Golden State should be heavily favored. After all, they likely could've won the title last year if Draymond Green didn't bag-tag LeBron, but still added the NBA's 2nd-best player anyway. Instead of examine what the Warriors need to do to win (show up, play basketball, don't get injured or suspended), let's look at what factors might help the Cavs pull this off:



Defend the Land


The big question obviously is whether the Cavs' defense - which looked suspect for large chunks of this season - can withstand perhaps the best offensive team ever. At first glance it seems like a hard "no", but Cleveland has a few cards to play here.

First off is LeBron; a mirror-image of Draymond Green in his ability to matchup with virtually anyone defensively, and snuff a variety of attacks. They'll be getting Bron's 100% effort on D for likely the first time all year, which could have an immense impact.

Liable defenders Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have both visibly raised their effectiveness vs. Golden State. Tristan Thompson is also a great insurance policy against the Death Lineup; a rim protector who can switch on pick & rolls, and close out on perimeter players among the best bigs in the league. Steph Curry will not be doing this to him.

Last June, Cleveland did a stellar job of closing the perceived defensive gap between these teams, holding the Dubs to 99.9ppg, while posting similar turnover%, true shooting% and d-rating. That will prove tougher this year, but to suggest the Cavs won't improve their D for this series could be dubious.

Pray for Klay to Stay Down
Also decent news for the Cavs' D is that Klay Thompson is mired in one of the worst offensive stretches of his career. Thompson averaged 22.3 ppg on .468 from the field this season. Last year's playoffs saw him post 24.3 on .444. This postseason, those numbers have plummeted to 14.4 on .383. You certainly can't be leaving him - he can erupt at a moment's notice - but against an attack where Curry and Durant have to be your focus, not having Klay On Fire punish slow rotations is a huge advantage. An off game or two from Thompson could be costly enough.

Test Iguodala
Containing LeBron James is a very relative term, and it's not a great sign for the Warriors that their main means of guarding him is dealing with a bum knee. Not only will a hobbled or absent Andre Iguodala stretch the Warriors that much thinner on D, but will force either Durant or Green to spend the bulk of their minutes on James, burning max effort and potentially risking foul trouble.

Iggy says his knee is "good" (really, what else would he say?) but he'll need to be at his best vs what has all the makings of an apex LeBron performance. Having LBJ attacking his lateral movement (more drives, fewer 3s) could expose weakness and force the Dubs to adjust.

Win the Grit N Grind Battle

One of the biggest keys to Cleveland's win last year was exerting both a physical and mental edge on the suddenly-shook Warriors. The Cavs were running Curry into pick-and-rolls on every possible possession; throwing him into hard screens and physical switches. They were waxing glass with an added nastiness, bodying perimeter movement, and - most valuably - getting inside the heads of their best opponents.

Granted Curry isn't hurt this year, but the same beat-em-up grind can take him off his game. Draymond Green is every bit the same liability if provoked. Zaza Pachulia's thuggish antics will be under the tightest of scrutiny. And the Warriors - even with their pristine playoff record - come into this series still wrestling with demons of the 3-1 collapse, and LeBron quite literally testing them by himself in 2015. Saying they're vulnerable mentally isn't really an overstatement.

Let Mike Brown Live
While coaching the Warriors is more or less cruise control, there's no doubt that they'll miss Steve Kerr, from whom Mike Brown is a reasonable downgrade on the bench. While the Warriors' D - Brown's specialty - will be their main edge in this series, he scores demerits in almost every other key attribute, from in-game adjustments to offensive creativity and motivational appeal. There's a reason why he flamed out in three consecutive head coaching gigs of sharply decreasing length.

A contested playoff series is an on-the-fly battle of wits between coaches, and thus far there's been no example of how Brown responds if this team is threatened. The Finals aren't exactly the time to be figuring those things out, perhaps the only downside of their total blitzkrieg in the West.

Beat the Warriors at Their Own Game
Any team that hopes to beat Golden State over seven games had better be packing heavy artillery, having to out-gun a team that's averaging a ridiculous 118ppg. Their numbers are vaulted slightly by their massacre of the Kawhi-less Spurs: 124.5ppg on .538 and .406 from three. Perhaps the greatest testament to Kawhi's defensive value, the league's #1 D was gruesomely flayed without him.

Meanwhile, the Cavs played the Celtics largely without their worst defender, facing a tough matchup and still dropping 120ppg on .534 and .436. For the Playoffs, they're averaging only 1.5ppg fewer than the Warriors, arguably against tougher overall defense (GSW got complete walks vs the D of 2/3 opponents thus far), while shooting an outrageous 43.5% from long range, hitting 2.5 more per game than the Warriors. They can put numbers on the board in a hurry.

It was long posited that Golden State couldn't be beaten in a shootout series. But the Cavs, having finally flipped "The Switch", look ready to challenge that notion.

Have a LeBron Moment

Much as the Warriors have an array potential gamebreaking stars, the Cavs have LeBron. He's the one human capable of dominating a basketball game in more ways than anyone in history. He's playing some of the best ball of his career right now. And the once-mocked possibility of being mentioned as the G.O.A.T is very much in play for him.

The crescendo towards this series suggests, both in narrative and basketball precedent, that we're about to witness LeBron's piece de résistance. Not only has he never faced greater motivation than to crush the Warriors in this fabled grudge match and enter the Jordan debate, but LeBron has a lengthy history of exceeding big expectations.

Excluding the 2011 Finals - which any rational person can accept as an outlier that will never repeat itself - King James has managed to rise beyond pretty much every occasion, and this shouldn't be any exception.




While there are a number of catalysts for Cleveland to pull off four wins, several of them will likely have to happen at once for the Cavs to prevail. Golden State has an on-paper edge on both sides of the ball, only one of which can really be overcome. Cleveland cracked Boston's rotation-heavy pressure, but the Warriors are longer, better built to stop LeBron, and will have Draymond at peak badass. This team also has another level to attain offensively if Klay Thompson wakes up, at which point the rain might be too much.

It's frustrating that the Warriors are likely going to be validated for concocting a team so unfairly. Golden State benefitted from extremely good fortune on numerous counts, the Durant signing seemingly so flukey and greasy that the league immediately introduced measures to prevent it from happening again. Still, the Warriors pulled it off, and will carve their own niche in the NBA's annals. They'll either be remembered among the greatest teams ever, or as the team LeBron beat to become perhaps the greatest player ever. The stakes could not be higher.

If this series ran 100 times, the Cavs project to win roughly 25-28 of them (based on an advanced algorithmic system that exists only as a front for me just guessing).

Over one series? WARRIORS IN SIX. 

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Cleveland and Golden State - Too Good for Their Own Good?


So the NBA playoffs have kind of sucked this year.

Sure there have been some isolated examples of great basketball, but not only has the sense of a Cavs-Warriors inevitability tarnished the overall suspense of this spectacle, many of the individual series have been washes that were hardly ever in doubt.

Cleveland and Golden State's collision course has been about as smooth as possible. The Dubs haven't lost a game yet, while the Cavs hadn't either until Sunday night's outlying Celts comeback. Even that lone loss appears like a glitch, since Boston was without their best player, and down 16 at the half to a team that had spent the past six games beating them and Toronto more savagely than Michael's stepdad in The Wire.

Even the opportunities for intrigue have been sabotaged. As I write this, the Warriors are completing a sweep of the Spurs, one engineered largely in part by a probably-intentional attempt on Kawhi Leonard's weak ankle while the Spurs were up 23 in Game 1. The Bulls seemed to have an 8-1 upset en route vs Boston, then lost #PlayoffRondo along with the next four games. James Harden legitimately appeared to have dropped acid before the most important game of his best season. The only upset we've seen was entirely probable after Blake Griffin (obviously) went down vs the Jazz.

The playoffs have never been so uninvolving. I've voluntarily missed several conference finals games, which says something considering I take in mid-January Bucks-Bobcats games and spend more time with the TNT crew than I do with my family on Christmas. I'm sure a decent portion of the population feels the same - certainly a fair number of dedicated viewers I know - and have tuned out. This can't be a great look for the league, especially in the first year of the new TV deal that lined their checkbooks so excessively last summer.

Much has been made of this predestined dominance being harmful long-term; that competitive parity is damaged and indicative of a trend in the wrong direction. Despite the short-term monotony, I'm not feeling as gloomy about the outlook NBA fans should have, for a number of reasons:

The Finals Haven't Even Happened Yet
First, most of this can be forgiven if the Cavs and Warriors deliver a Finals anywhere even near as epic as 2016's down-to-the-last-second clash. Years from now, maybe we'll look back on the historical significance of this heated matchup trilogy. And if the Cavs somehow pull off a victory, as sacrilegious as it sounds, we're going to have to start realistically talking about LeBron James being the GOAT (sorry, not the only one saying it). We could still witness both history and amazing basketball.

The Warriors Are an Evolutionary Fluke
OK, so the Golden State Warriors are kind of ridiculous. Sure they play an aesthetically pleasant, statistic-obliterating form of basketball, but they seem almost unfairly stacked with talent. Because they are. Consider the catalysts that had to align for this team to materialize:

First, they signed Steph Curry to a long-term deal back when he was a fringe star with glass ankles. Not only has his health since improved considerably, but he's evolved into a two-time MVP. He was the NBA's 73rd-highest paid player this year. John Henson, DeMarre Carroll and Brandon Knight cost their teams more money. Think about that for a few minutes.

Then they had a second-round pick turn into an All-NBA player basically overnight, making Draymond Green one of history's biggest draft steals. Not exactly par for the course.

And obviously this past summer, league payrolls skyrocketed due to a cash influx from a new TV deal. Since the previous deal was struck, basketball's popularity has grown more globally than likely any sport in history over such a short span, creating a spike in revenue - and thus salaries - that had literally never been seen in pro sports. That wild outlier gave the Warriors enough cap space to sign Kevin Fucking Durant, comparatively giving up pennies.

An NBA team would be ridiculously lucky to have any one of those things happen to them; all three is basically a Powerball win.

The Cavs Kind of Are Too
There are a few factors at play here as well. One is obviously that the Cavs employ, in his prime, a guy who by most calculations is one of the two best basketball players ever.

The second are the measures a team is willing/able to make to maximize said player's prime. The Cavs can justify heavy luxury tax when LeBron can guarantee them an annual Finals appearance, while getting commitment from both high-value assets like Kevin Love, and discounted veterans seeking a ring.  LeBron is not only an otherworldly talent, but one who's perpetually lifted the play of those around him; his allure as a teammate is arguably unmatched since Bill Russell.

Also, mere weeks before LeReturn, the Cavs pulled one of the biggest Draft Lottery heists in history, not only binking a #1 pick they had a 1.7% chance at, but then flipping it for Kevin Love. How many times in NBA history has a team - already with an All-Star - added the league's best player plus a third All-Star in one month for absolutely nothing?

What Lies Beneath
It's not like the rest of the NBA is completely lost. While playoff stalwarts like the Clippers and Grizzlies are at an awkward crossroads, plenty of franchises have bright visions for the future after this historic rivalry plays out.

The recently-eliminated Wizards have a young star-studded backcourt and the NBA's best center openly talking about joining them. The Raptors have assets & youth to re-tool while staying competitive, something the Celtics are already doing patiently. The Bucks have a great young core and a future MVP. The Jazz will be an emerging threat if they keep Gordon Hayward. The Spurs will be OK because, well, they're the Spurs. Even a franchise like the Sixers could be excited if Joel Embiid wasn't such a massive injury risk, and Bryan Colangelo wasn't running their team.

There's plenty of competition and parity waiting in the wings, some intentionally delaying their rise to outlast the peaks of the seemingly-unbeatable Warriors and Cavs. When their icy grip on supremacy inevitably melts, the water underneath is far from settled.

Superteams Are Nothing New
And while two teams dominating the league this thoroughly is something we've yet to see, the concept of teams being this stacked with talent dates all the way back to the Lakers of the late 60s when Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor and Jerry West - three of the consensus 15 best players ever - shared a locker room. Since that time (and really before it too), most championship teams have been similarly loaded with Hall-of-Famers in or close to their primes:

-'70 & '73 Knicks: Walt Frazier, Willis Reed, Dave DeBusschere
-'70s Celtics: John Havlicek, Dave Cowens, Jo Jo White
- 80's Celtics: Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, Dennis Johnson
- Showtime Lakers: Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, James Worthy
- Bad Boys Pistons: Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, Dennis Rodman
- 90s Bulls: Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman
- Popovich Spurs: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili/Kawhi Leonard/David Robinson
- Ubuntu Celtics: Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen
- Banana Boat Heat: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh
- 2015 Warriors: Steph Curry, Draymond Green, (likely) Klay Thompson
- 2016 Cavs: LeBron James, (likely) Kyrie Irving & Kevin Love

Counting whoever wins in 2017, these teams will have combined for 30 of the 50 NBA titles since the Celtics reeled off eight straight. An additional nine ('06 Heat, '00-'02 Lakers, '91-'93 Bulls, '83 Sixers and '71 Bucks) saw two Top-50 all-time players join forces at or near the height of their powers. Simply put, basketball is a star-driven sport, and the vast majority of title winners have had to top-load their rosters accordingly. That the Warriors and Cavs have had to up the ante under highly anomalous circumstances shouldn't be cause for long-term concern.

LeBron won't be this good forever, nor will the Warriors - or any franchise - be able to pay for such a team much longer. The lack of suspense plaguing this year's playoffs hurts now no doubt, but should hardly be seen as a threat to the NBA's burgeoning global dominance.

Yes, in a two-month vacuum, Golden State and Cleveland have likely had a detrimental effect on the NBA's overall appeal. But with eyes on the big picture - once variance rights parity from this schism askew - this stretch of painfully predictable basketball will seem like a harmless blemish.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Banter's 2015-16 NBA Awards


With the regular season running on fumes and all but one playoff spot decided, now seems like a pretty safe time to roll out my selections for this season's NBA hardware; before I read a bunch of analysts' picks and have my objectivity poisoned by groupthink.

This year's awards offered contests from every end of the spectrum: a few very competitive battles, an impasse of reluctant mediocrity, and two outright romps. So who takes home the hardware? Envelopes please...

All Rookie Teams:
First-
G-D'Angelo Russell, G-Devin Booker, F-Kristaps Porgingis, F-Jahlil Okafor, C- Karl-Anthony Towns
Second: G-Emmanuel Mudiay, G-Jonathon Simmons, F-Justise Winslow, F-Myles Turner, C- Nikola Jokic

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS
The ROY race started off as an intriguing three-headed argument that Towns eventually left in his dust. While Kristaps Porzingis could've easily taken it most seasons, Towns was nothing short of historic. He beasted through Sam Mitchell's stubborn refusal to play him more than 30 mpg most of the season, putting up per-36 numbers frighteningly similar to Tim Duncan's landmark rookie year, only demonstrating greater range and athleticism.

It's very seldom that you can watch a guy play for one season and say "If he doesn't get hurt, he's going to be a Hall of Famer". You can with Towns. This should be unanimous, even among what's shaping up to be a rookie class for the ages.
Regards To: Kristaps Porzingis, Jahlil Okafor, Nikola Jokic

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: CJ MCCOLLUM

This award was a doozy, with a bunch of guys putting up monster years in MIP context. Jae Crowder came somewhat out of left field, becoming one of the NBA's most coveted 3-&-D guys. Draymond Green doubled down on last year's 2nd-place Most Improved finish, taking another, bolder, leap to MVP candidate and statistical unicorn. Speaking of MVPs and 2nd place, that's very likely where Steph Curry will wind up in this year's voting, escalating his dominance to a realm beyond our familiarity.

Those cases notwithstanding, McCollum's all-around explosion is just too much to ignore, regardless of his increased minutes or opportunity. The leap he made in scoring itself - from 7 to 21 ppg - is seismic enough that only a single player (Dale Ellis) has eclipsed it in the MIP's thirty-year history. Then also consider McCollum's doubled his steals, doubled his rebounds, and quadrupled his assists, while improving his shooting across the board. The Blazers' supremely unlikely run to the playoffs is another feather in his cap, and rounds out one of the most compelling Most Improved arguments we've ever seen.
Regards To: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Jae Crowder

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: EVAN TURNER
A year of "What-Ifs" for this award. The only reason there's a discussion at all is because Hassan Whiteside is ineligible by a slim margin. Then there was Jrue Holiday, who was brilliant when healthy, but seldom healthy. Zach Randolph was an emerging candidate, but Memphis' injury onslaught ruined his bid. Enes Kanter put up an astonishing top-10 PER season, but I can't in good conscience disregard that he also ranked 446th in defensive real plus-minus.

Nobody really screams "winner" this year. My desperate search for a worthy 6MOY came down to five players: Jeremy Lin, Jamal Crawford, Ryan Anderson, Evan Turner and Will Barton; none of whom had stellar seasons, but any of whom could realistically win this award.

My vote goes to Turner by the narrowest of margins, for his all-around impact and feisty two-way play on one of this season's more deserving teams.
Regards To: Will Barton, Ryan Anderson, Jamal Crawford

COACH OF THE YEAR: BRAD STEVENS
This award was way too close to call this year, with so many coaches putting up very compelling arguments: Gregg Popovich steered the Spurs on a historic pace with a new identity. Terry Stotts shockingly jump-started Portland's rebuild by two or three years. Dave Joerger weathered a historic number of injuries to lead Memphis into the playoffs with a D-League roster. Rick Carlisle kept the Mavs competitive with a plethora of factors stacked against him. Dwane Casey made the most of his defensive upgrades, presiding over the Raptors' unlikely Best Season Ever. And if one person had coached the Warriors for the whole season, we wouldn't even be having this debate.

Stevens grabs the COY nod for two reasons: The first being, simply, he's the total package as a coach. He's an X's and O's ace, who's relentlessly creative with lineups and who players like and play hard for. The second is that, unlike so many others, his success has come with a team that wasn't really built to win. Boston's current state is very much that of a rebuild; a franchise stockpiling assets and playing up the trade value of guys who don't necessarily fit together or into the Celtics' long-term plans. Stevens is just too good for his team to tank through the motions, though I doubt many Boston fans will mind.
Regards To: Terry Stotts, Gregg Popovich, Dave Jeorger

All-Defense Teams:
First:
G-Kyle Lowry, G-Chris Paul, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Rudy Gobert
Second: G-Tony Allen, G-Jimmy Butler, F-Paul George, F-Paul Millsap, C-Hassan Whiteside

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: KAWHI LEONARD
I'm no stranger to the concept of selective plays in fantasy basketball, but never before have I just benched players all season against a particular opponent in outright fear. That's more or less what happened this year with Leonard, and it played very seldom to my regret.

Draymond Green deserves a lot of credit for punishing anyone who entered his realm, and making the DPOY a tough call for the second year in a row. But Leonard is just too consistent; too automatic.

Picking one over the other statistically is splitting hairs; Green and Leonard are both among the league leaders in key defensive metrics, with each holding an edge. Draymond's intensity and versatility on D give him a leg up, but Kawhi ultimately lands a haymaker case as the resident stopper on a team that completely pummeled the NBA defensively this year. Another very close call between these two.
Regards To: Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, Kyle Lowry

All-NBA Teams:
First:
G-Stephen Curry, G-Chris Paul, F-LeBron James, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-DeMarcus Cousins
Second: G-Russell Westbrook, G-Kyle Lowry, F-Kevin Durant, F-Draymond Green, C- Anthony Davis
Third: G-Damian Lillard, G-James Harden, F-Paul George, F-Paul Millsap, C-Andre Drummond

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: STEPHEN CURRY

You were expecting Ty Lawson?

This was in the bag months ago. What Curry did to the NBA this year was ruthless and unfair; dominating at an unheard-of rate, displaying unseen range and handles, breaking records about as casually as (in)humanly possible.

Even more so than Towns' ROY win, Curry's should be unanimous here; he was the best player in the NBA this year beyond any reasonable doubt, and hopefully the ballots will reflect as such. To any "voter" that disagrees and tries to weave a biased dissenting narrative, please hand in your press pass.
Regards To: Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Chris Paul 

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Stephen Curry and the Defiance of Adjectives



It escapes words.

Sure the usual hyperbolic descriptions fit: "unbelievable", "extraordinary", "transcendent".

But an attempt to verbally illustrate what Stephen Curry did to the Oklahoma City Thunder last night - and is doing to the NBA in general right now - is to presume that we've seen something like this before and thus have words to accurately portray it. We don't.

It's tough, almost futile, to write this piece. My mind is still warped and coming to terms with the real-life NBA Jam game we watched last night, and attempting to do something I'm openly admitting shouldn't be possible. Maybe it's best to let his play speak for itself...

But just getting your head around it all seems difficult, like we just witnessed a glitch in reality. It had to have happened though; it couldn't have been made up. If last night's script landed on a Hollywood exec's desk, it would be laughed out the door as too far-fetched.

The stage couldn't have been set up better: The Warriors were on a record-setting pace after 50 games; where every loss mattered. They were in tough, down double-digits on the road against one of the few teams who could truly challenge them. Not only were they were weary - having not played a home game in three weeks - but to make matters worse, their emotional lynchpin (and 2nd-best player) lost his shit at halftime and stopped shooting.

Curry proceeded to roll his ankle mid 3rd-quarter, and had Russell Westbrook land on it a second later. It was a scary moment that left anyone familiar with Curry's ankle history feeling uneasy. Then the MVP played it out as no screenwriter could've contrived:

He came back limping noticeably, but began draining a barrage of comically absurd three-pointers, toying with defenders; equal parts jovial playground artist and Leon The Professional as he clawed into - and eventually overtook - the Thunder's lead. After absorbing his reality-altering performance, so many things stick with me, but don't even resonate the most:

See, it's not that Curry dropped 31 points after returning, draining attempt after attempt that would've had any other player in the World instantly yanked.

It's not that he led a dramatic comeback on the road; one that would've been over in regulation if Golden State hadn't missed about 47 Curry-created open layups in the 2nd half.

It's not even that he happened to tie an all-time record for threes in a game, or broke his own record for threes in a season with 24 games still to play.

And somehow it isn't that he hit the ballsiest game-winner in NBA history; not calling the available timeout, casually jogging upcourt and pulling up from the fringe of OKC's midcourt logo with almost 3 seconds left on the clock (note that the game was tied).

It's that none of this should really surprise us.


Curry has specialized in the indescribable to such an extent this year that this doesn't really come as a huge shock, absurd as that may sound.

We've been spoiled. We've gotten too used to these Human Torch antics: lobbing attempts at the net like red shells in Mario Kart, scoring 20 points in 5 mins on 7 shots or whatever, casually canning jumpers from halfcourt and beyond with unseen routineness.

Especially now, coming off games of 36. 42 and 51 points; on a destructive path in the wake of a new round of misguided criticisms from former players. Curry claims to find the commentary "annoying", but it clearly fuels a fire in him, one we should all hope continues to be fed if it produces explosions like this.

Stephen Curry is revolutionizing basketball; there's no other way to put it. Maybe we'll eventually figure out how to properly describe it, but for now we should be content with just seeing what he'll do next.

Friday, January 29, 2016

Banter's 2016 All-Stars

All-Star voting. Don't get me started.


Whatever, too late. The whole process is backwards; starting with the fan voting. It's a popularity contest, which at the same time is used as a highly-touted yardstick when measuring a player's legacy and/or Hall-of-Fame credentials. The sometimes-quizzical coaches do a by-and-large better job of putting the right guys on the bench, but even they are subject to bias and error.

The NBA made a nice adjustment a few years back, eliminating the forced "Center" position to reflect the increasingly perimeter-oriented nature of the game. But even that measure has left out many deserving players, with more All-Star caliber guards than the NBA has ever seen.

Put simply, there's fewer All-Star spots available to the positions with the most talent. A "Perimeter"/"Frontcourt" designation with more spots allocated to the former would make a logical next step for wing players- we live in a world where Kobe Bryant was somehow just voted in as a Forward.

While the coaches did a mostly solid job of mopping up the mess left by the starters' voting, let's wipe the slate clean and travel to an alternate universe where I decide the All-Stars because I'm clearly smarter than every NBA coach, and the millions of fans who cast votes.

Using an abstractly weighted assessment of the player's overall season (Personal Performance x Team Success), I've come up with the 24 guys who truly deserve to be repping the title "All-Star" this season; the guys who have defined the season with outstanding play. Here are Banter's 2016 All-Star picks:

EAST STARTERS

G - Kyle Lowry

Lowry was already an elite two-way PG, but over the summer he lost a visible amount of weight and has thus attacked this season with the voracity of his former self at In-N-Out. Still an aggressive bull on both ends, Lowry's now a step quicker, and possesses greater bounce. It's translated to him averaging career-highs in (points+assists), rebounds, and steals - the latter of which he sits 2nd in the league.

Meanwhile the Raptors have somewhat-surprisingly been perhaps the East's steadiest team this year, and the only ones really threatening Cleveland's #1 seed. Canadian fans pulled a last-ditch rally to bump Lowry into the starting lineup for the 2nd straight year, and there's no question this time it was deserved.

G - Jimmy Butler
Much like Lowry, Butler's a menace on both ends of the court for one of the conference's best teams. While the Bulls have had some periods of adjustment through a new coach and their usual boatload of injuries, Jimmy's been a monstrous presence, carrying Chicago offensively for stretches and willing them to wins by himself on several occasions.

Unfortunately it's doesn't look like the Windy City has enough huff & puff to challenge Cleveland in the East this year, but even with John Wall's recent rampage of box score destruction, Butler's been the better season-long player for a top-3 team, making this spot his.

F- LeBron James
25/7/6, with a combined 2 steals/blocks per game would be a banner year for 99.9% of the NBA. For LeBron, it's become routine, beyond the point of being taken for granted. The Cavs have coasted to the #1 spot, even through chemistry issues, injuries and unforeseen coach-firings, and LeBron's pretty much been LeBron; as automatic an All-Star starter as has existed in the NBA.

F- Paul George
Both the Pacers and George have cooled off slightly after completely scintillating starts to the season, but in a conference somewhat light on compelling cases for starters, PG is a total no-brainer. He's rebounded from his injury-porn broken leg to have his best year statistically so far.

Moreover the Pacers have been pleasantly competitive over a first half marred by injuries and large doses of unfamiliarity on a mostly-flipped roster. Even if they'd slid outside the playoff bracket, George would still be a must-start.

F - Paul Millsap
Lost in the usual rhetoric about the Hawks' team play and their slight stumble in the East standings is that Millsap is having an absolute monster of a season. Already one of the NBA's most versatile players, he's currently averaging career highs in all five of the major statistical categories. He sits top-10 in steals, top-20 and blocks and rebounds, and top-30 in scoring. Millsap's brilliance has been subtle (aside from this vicious assault on John Henson) and unheralded, but he rounds out a fairly obvious East frontcourt. #SmallBall.

EAST BENCH

G - John Wall
Has been playing the best ball of his career over the past six weeks. Even with the Wizards decimated by injury and performing well below par, he needs to be here.

G - Demar DeRozan
DeRozan's smoothly transitioned from a mid-range gunner to a relentless attacker who shoots the third-most free throws in the NBA. He's top-ten scorer on a top-two team, making it very hard not to give the host Raptors a 2nd All-Star.

F - Carmelo Anthony
Melo has been getting jerked off a lot lately for trusting his teammates, trying on defense, and more or less playing the way everyone's been wishing he would for a decade now. Regardless, the Knicks are far less of a laughing stock, so Anthony's All-Star stock has risen as well.

F - Chris Bosh
Not that the Heat "need" an All-Star by any logical stretch, but both Bosh and Dwyane Wade (who's been remarkably durable this year) carry decent cases for bench spots. In the end, the Boshtrich gets the nod, largely due to having more potential roster spots and less competition.

F - Andre Drummond
If you can stomach the absolutely abhorrent free-throw shooting, Drummond's a destructive force that's cleared a path for Detroit's seemingly likely return to the playoffs. Hasn't dropped as many 20/20s lately, but still has left a large crater in this season.

WC - Isaiah Thomas
The first Wild Card spot goes to Thomas, who's having a borderline-dominant offensive season as the heartbeat of the wily, cagey Celtics, who thanks to the new division champs rules, are a game back of homecourt in the East.

WC - Pau Gasol
This spot comes down to a bunch of guys with somewhat-compelling cases. I changed my mind 2 or 3 times and went with Pau, still putting gaudy numbers on the board for a top-3 team, which none of the guys below can really front on.

REGARDS TO: Kemba Walker, Al Horford, Reggie Jackson, Dwyane Wade, Nicolas Batum, Kevin Love

WEST STARTERS

G - Stephen Curry
Duh.

G - Russell Westbrook
Westbrook's been a supremely destructive force on box scores and defenders alike, offset only slightly by Kevin Durant's return to health. Russ sits 7th in scoring and 2nd in assists, accounting for more raw offensive output than anyone but Chef Curry. For good measure, he also leads all guards in rebounding, and the entire league in steals.

Westbrook's relentlessly undying energy is a perpetual force of nature on the basketball court. You can expect the reigning All-Star MVP to put up a solid title defense, simply because he doesn't understand the meaning of "not trying".

F - Kevin Durant
It hasn't taken long for the Slim Reaper to slay all that preseason fretting about his foot and the total hatchet job OKC's medical staff pulled on it last year. Playing slightly fewer minutes than seasons past, his output is par for the Durant course, among the league's scoring leaders, shooting dangerously close to 50/40/90. Welcome back KD.

F - Kawhi Leonard

That season we were all waiting for, when Timmy, Tony and Manu finally turned the reigns over and Kawhi Leonard was fully unleashed, is happening. Not only is he continuing to wreak utter havoc on the defensive end, he's dropping a career-high 20/game on arguably the most efficient-shooting season in NBA history. Not even LaMarcus Aldridge's arrival has been enough to offset the assertion that it's Leonard Time.

F- Draymond Green
You have to love Draymond Green. He backs up every single brash and/or boisterous statement he makes with a pure embodiment of (sorry, Grizzlies) Grit and Grind. This guy isn't a transcendent athlete, he wasn't blessed with any otherwordly talents (like, say one of his teammates). He's just a very smart basketball player who hustles on every play and has busted his ass over the past 18 months to expand his game.

As a result, you'd be very hard-pressed to name a more versatile player in the league, such that he's averaging numbers nobody has since Grant Hill 19 years ago. To boot, Dr. Dray kicks in almost 3 steals/blocks per game, while capably guarding as wide a range of opponents as anyone. Curry may be the Warriors' best player, but Green is their heart, hustle, and a borderline MVP candidate himself.


WEST BENCH

G - Chris Paul
The Clippers were a sinking ship in November, but Paul's return to full health has sparked a dramatic resurgence in Blake Griffin's absence. They're back in the top-4, largely due to CP3's dominance on both ends.

(side note: I single out "CP3" as one of two examples of those dumb, once-trendy initial-to-number nicknames that should be used. The monosyllabic rhyme-rattle just works too well. The other is CB4, which is probably the coolest thing Chris Bosh has ever initiated, even if unwittingly.

G - James Harden
Houston's been a pretty big disappointment this year, but Harden's been a beast. You can only penalize a guy so much for his team, and there's no denying The Beard belongs. He's still putting up LeBron-esque numbers, so book his ticket.

F - Dirk Nowitzki
The Mavs aren't quite a team that demands an All-Star, but their unexpected status as mortal locks for the West playoffs is noteworthy, as is Dirk's refusal to quit leading a competitive team. This isn't a "Legacy Nod" like the fans gave Kobe, this is a "Still Got It" nod.

F - Anthony Davis
The Pels have been bit by the injury bug, the inconsistency bug, and the "All our Centers Suck" bug, but Davis is doing what he can. He hasn't yet displayed the growth many had hoped for this year, but the player he already was is really fucking good.

F- DeMarcus Cousins
Another West star who started the season in an injury-mired funk, Cousins has been Godzilla on the block this month, averaging an absurd 34 & 14 on 61% True Shooting. The Kings are also fighting for a suddenly-available playoff spot, making the All-Star game an official Boogie Nights production.

WC - Klay Thompson
The competition for the final two spots here was a lot fiercer than in the East, but Klay seems like a relatively easy pick. His numbers have dipped ever-so-slightly with Curry in GodMode, but Golden State might be the best team in history, so, you know...

WC - Damian Lillard
Finally there's the often slept-on Damian Lillard, who's been putting up outrageous numbers for a Portland team that maybe five people on Earth thought would fight for the playoffs this year. Even if he's a crappy defender, he's a destructive offensive player whose team's highly-unlikely 'success' propels his case.

Regards To: Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan Gordon Hayward, Rajon Rondo

Friday, January 22, 2016

Banter's Halftime Awards

We're just about in the middle of the NBA season, with every team at or across the 41-game Halftime threshold. While the All-Star Break won't happen for a few weeks, this is as good a time as any to check up on who's making moves for the league's end-of-season awards. Here are Banter's picks for the first half:

Rookie of the Half: Karl-Anthony Towns

Not even three full months in, the 2015 Draft Class is already looking like a smash. Three of the top four picks are probable-to-certain future All-Stars, and a number of players from all over the board are flashing skills and contributing regularly.

But among all the early hype, Towns has been delivering a rookie season for the books: 15.5/9.5/1.7 in just 29 minutes per game (to contrast, as rookies, Alonzo Mourning averaged 34, Hakeem Olajuwon 35.5, and Tim Duncan just under 40). Towns is a consistent two-way bull who delivers the trifecta of currently-coveted NBA big men skills (floor-running, shooting range and rim protection), while at 85% from the charity stripe is already tied w/ teammate Gorgui Dieng to lead all centers.

Plenty of the names that got called last June sound like they might ring out in years to come, but Towns' already does. Very loudly.

Regards To: Kristaps Porzingis, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo
Barksdale Russell

All-Rookie Teams
First: G-D'Angelo Russell, G-Devin Booker, F-Kristaps Porzingis, F/C-Jahlil Okafor, C-Karl-Anthony Towns


Second: G-Emmanuel Mudiay, G-Jonathon Simmons, F-Stanley Johnson, F-Bobby Portis, C-Nikola Jokic

Most Improved Player of the Half: CJ McCollum

A lot of guys are making noise for this award, and it's not all from the usual places. Jae Crowder has come semi-out of nowhere to become a highly coveted 3-and-D wing. Draymond Green - last year's runner up - took an unlikely step from fringe All-Star to fringe MVP candidate. And speaking of MVPs, last year's winner is very much in the race for this year's Most Improved, which is maybe the ultimate testament to just how badly Steph Curry is crushing the NBA right now.

But beyond the compelling narratives worn by Green and Curry, McCollum is delivering a textbook MIP campaign that can't be ignored. Obviously the offseason exodus from Portland left huge voids to be filled in the Blazers' lineup, but CJ's responded by tripling his scoring average to over 20ppg, while doubling his rebounding output and more than quadrupling his assists. He's maintained identical shooting clips from the field and on threes through his vastly increased volume, and is shooting a full 10% better from the line (just under 80%). Lots of people expected a leap from him, but McCollum's blown up bigger, sooner than just about anyone saw coming.

Regards To: Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, Jae Crowder

Coach of the Half: Luke Walton

I have no patience for the nonsense about Walton not being credited for the Warriors' wins; far as I see it if he can win Coach of the Month, he can win Coach of the Half. Nor do I think it's valid to hold the ease of coaching the Warriors against him in deciding this award; the ease of playing with them didn't seem to hurt Steph Curry much in last year's MVP race.

Here's an interim coach charged with meeting the sky-high expectations of not only defending the NBA Championship, but silencing the many doubters - media, players and owners alike - who emerged around the league in the months since. He's piloted a roster that's already dealt with more injury issues than all of last season, steering them on course for the best record in NBA history - which is pretty much a benchmark for an automatic COY.

Regards To: Gregg Popovich, Rick Carlisle, Stan Van Gundy


Sixth Man of the Half: Ryan Anderson 

Tough call here. Especially since none of the contenders are putting up Must-Win seasons, and I find it really hard to reward someone on the Pelicans, who've been a gross disappointment. Yes, I know, they started off the season hurt. Everyone's heard that violin. But the Pels have had Tyreke Evans back for 20 games; Jrue Holiday's been back to full duty. They're still 13 games under .500 in a conference where many teams are reeling. They also bafflingly traded away Ish Smith.

But it wouldn't really be fair to punish Anderson for the Pelicans' organizational misfortune; bouncing back from a stretch marred by both serious injury and personal tragedy, to basically become his old self again. With retro-Anderson shooting %'s and a per-36 scoring clip on par with his career high (and a dispiriting lack of growth from Anthony Davis), he's been perhaps the lone consistent bright spot on the Pelicans' roster.

It's tough to say what the second half will bring for Anderson's viability - with his name appearing constantly in trade rumors and Zach Randolph possibly qualifying for the award - but for now he's got the top spot among sixth men.

Regards To: Victor Oladipo, Will Barton, Zach Randolph

Defensive Player of the Half: Kawhi Leonard

It's hard to say whether Leonard will pull off the DPOY double-dip; history certainly isn't on his side.You'd have to go back to 1984 and Sidney Moncrief - the award's first winner - as the only perimeter player ever to repeat.

That said, Kawhi's a transcendent defensive player, spearheading a team that is just crippling the league on D this season. He could make history, and should, as he's far and away the best defender in the NBA right now. I've legitimately stopped playing my fantasy teams' swingmen against San Antonio.

Regards To: Draymond Green, Kyle Lowry, Hassan Whiteside


All-Defense Teams
First: G-Kyle Lowry, G-Tony Allen, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Hassan Whiteside


Second: G-Chris Paul, G-Jimmy Butler, F-Anthony Davis, F-Serge Ibaka, C-DeAndre Jordan


MVP of the Half: Stephen Curry 

Obviously Steph Curry is on an island right now in terms of the MVP race, we can just get that out of the way. Instead of waxing poetic or dropping rhetorical stats about all the ways Curry is revolutionizing basketball right now, let's instead hypothetically imagine (god forbid) he were to bust his ankle tomorrow and be out until til the playoffs. Who then emerges as the favorite?

Chris Paul - Had a shaky, turnover-heavy start to the season, but has been absolutely dominant for a Clippers team that's completely turned its season around despite the absence of Blake Griffin (who himself was an MVP candidate prior to his injury).

Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook - The Thunder are starting to roll with Durant healthy and Westbrook doing Westbrook things, but regardless of how high they lift OKC, they're likely to sabotage each other's chances here.

LeBron James - Kept the Cavs safely atop the East through Kyrie's absence with the usual LeBron stat-stuffing we've come to take for granted (although note that he's shooting a rancid 29% on four three-pointers/game).

Kawhi Leonard - He's slowly swimming out to Curry Island. With every passing game, the Spurs solidify themselves as a historic regular-season team perhaps on par with Golden State. And Kawhi's dominance on both ends can't be ignored. Easily the NBA's best defender and flirting with a 50/50/90 (a mark nobody has ever hit for a season), for a team on pace to win 71 games with the best net rating ever.

But give Curry credit where it's due, he was already on top of the basketball world, then took flight up into the ether. We may only be halfway, but it seems like barring that hypothetical injury, he may not be brought down.

Regards To: Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook 

All-NBA Teams
First: G-Stephen Curry, G-Russell Westbrook, F-LeBron James, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-DeMarcus Cousins

Second: G-Chris Paul, G-Jimmy Butler, F-Draymond Green, F-Kevin Durant, C-Pau Gasol

Third: G-Kyle Lowry, G-John Wall, F-Paul George, F-Anthony Davis, C-Andre Drummond

That's all for now - check back next week as we try and make sense of this mess called "All Star Voting".

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

PED Watch: The Early Most Improved Candidates

With every new NBA season comes a set of varying expectations for each player; abstract portraits painted by age, skill, health, playing time and plenty other intangibles.

In some cases, expectations exist merely as frames to be shattered by defiant vandals. There's never a shortage of breakouts to transcend our preconceived notions, and '15-'16 has so far put forth a number of dudes who, well, look like they might be on some other s**t,

Whether they've spent the summer in the gym, taken up yoga, or are pumping that Lance Armstrong, here are the players who've opened eyes with their starts to this season - (in no particular order) the early MIP candidates:

Kent Bazemore 
DeMarre Carroll's offseason departure was a bit of a blow to the Hawks, but Bazemore's surprise emergence has made a sufferable loss even more minute. Bazemore's brought an immediate defensive enthusiasm to his new starter's role; replacing Carroll's lockdown cog in Atlanta's phalanx.

Better yet, he's provided a scoring punch (12 ppg on .491 and .439 from deep), looking like a legitimate two-way sparkplug. Whether he's a long-term answer remains to be seen, but Bazemore in the hands of Mike Budenholzer should be a productive development. He's been better than anyone could've expected so far, and may not have reached his ceiling yet.

Otto Porter

Slightly akin to Bazemore in ATL, Porter's path to starter was cleared by an offseason departure; that of one Paul Pierce. The Wiz were banking on his growth upon last season's strong finish, which so far looks like a winner. Porter's a wiry menace who can disrupt perimeter attacks at several positions. Long enough to contest stretch fours, while still being able to check most guards, he's a valued breed of trendy defensive versatility.

His offensive numbers have seen a boost from Bradley Beal's early absence, but Porter's proven a capable scorer both slashing and even off the dribble. His 14 ppg come on .515 from the field, despite shooting a rancid .286 on 3.5 treys/game (see shot form above). He may just live up to 3rd-overall status yet.

(of course, as I'm writing the above paragraph, Paul George does this to him)

Evan Fournier
A somewhat unlikely candidate to rise to the top of Orlando's amorphous talent heap, Fournier's been on an early tear, dropping 19/game on blistering clips, while enjoying the overall stat bumps that come with demanding an increased role. He's gunning confidently and flashing a skill set that I admittedly never gave him credit for.

While his opening month was among the most impressive surprises, its results are also among the most volatile. Not only is Scott Skiles about to shake up the rotation due to shaky defense (as he's been known to do), but the Magic have plenty of versatile scorers (chiefly Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris and Vic Oladipo) all of whose output has suffered from Evan Almighty's early ascent. It's unclear how safe his go-to role is, but it even existing is something to remark.


Hassan Whiteside

The big questions with Whiteside this season were mostly of the skeptical nature: "can he sustain last season's play?", "will he be an attitude liability?", "will Kelly Olynyk need a restraining order?". Nobody was really asking themselves if Whiteside had yet another rung to climb, figuring his Lin-esque breakout season season to be a best-case scenario.

Well, don't look now, but Whiteside has upped his scoring and rebounding, and is blocking more shots than anyone has in 30 years. He's among the early favorites not only for MIP, but DPOY, and if he manages to keep his head on straight should be among the biggest rags-to-riches stories the NBA's seen.

CJ McCollum
So this hasn't exactly been a surprise. I had McCollum pegged as my preseason MIP, and he widely figured to be in line for a breakout year. The early returns though have exceeded expectations, with CJ not only confidently dictating offensive tempo, but putting up a (relatively) mammoth 20 ppg on a tidy 45/38/88 shooting spread.

More yet, he hasn't been soaking up meaningless buckets; the Blazers have competed with much better teams, and at 6-9 haven't been nearly as horrific as their preseason prognosis. McCollum's been a driving force behind their early season, um, "surge", and while he may not reek of upside like others on this list, he'll only get more comfortable in time (he's yet to start in 20 NBA games).

Stephen Curry
At first glance, it seems pretty strange to have the reigning MVP lumped in with a bunch of Most Improved candidates. But it would be far more ridiculous to write a list called 'PED Watch' without touching on what Curry's been doing to the NBA so far.

Chef's done what few thought possible and attained yet another level in the offensive stratosphere. Granted he's averaging fewer assists, largely because he's scoring nine more points every night, shooting a ridiculous 51% from the field while bombing eleven three pointers per gameBoth his swag and his production are off the charts.

Just how badly Curry is crushing right now is perhaps best illustrated by his PER. The convoluted stat (which basically encapsulates statistical output and overall efficiency) doesn't lend itself well to point guards, who traditionally turn the ball over the most and shoot the worst among standard positions. Of the Top 50 all-time single season PERs, only three appearances are made by two point guards (Chris Paul & Russell Westbrook), with zero in the Top 15. Steph's current pace of 33.59 PER would be, by a very comfortable margin, the best - of any player - in NBA history.  

Andre Drummond
And last but certainly not least is this fleet-footed manchild, who paradoxically rocks braces while

putting on history's most convincing Moses impersonation (Malone, not Ten Commandments).

Drummond currently sits a shade below 18 rebounds per game; a threshold only Dennis Rodman has crossed since the ABA merger - which is basically to say no human has done it. He's particularly devastating on the offensive glass, where he's a basically a guaranteed 2nd-chance bucket.

His dominant rebounding creates a viable facet to an otherwise-limited offensive game, adding another weapon to his dish-finishing and pick-n-roll crashing. And while he waxes the boards historically, he's far from a one-trick pony defensively. Drummond's a threat to disrupt anything near the rim; both shots and passing lanes, particularly the trendy back-door lob.

He's already one of the NBA's most terrifying matchups, and the worst is likely yet to come - he's still just 22. 

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Golden State Indeed


...And just like that, another NBA season's over.

The conclusion was fitting, if not seemingly inevitable. The critically-wounded Cavaliers put up more of a fight than anyone thought was left in them, but the Golden State Warriors punctuated their season-long dominance with a Larry O.

It was the essence of a team effort; while it wasn't pretty at times (Cleveland forced them into some decidedly un-Warriors rhythm for large chunks of this series) the Dubs got contributions from all the right places, and proved once again the power of numbers.

These Finals were the ultimate testament to Golden State's versatility, something I've lauded all season long. They were like a poisonous chameleon, able to take on many deadly forms seamlessly. Give much credit to Steve Kerr for making all the right adjustments - knowing when to suffocate LeBron, going so small as to force the Cavs' destructive front line out of the lineup, clogging the paint on D and letting JR Smith and Matthew Dellevadova shoot the Cavs out of games, the David Lee Experience, the list goes on - he coached LeBron James David Blatt into the corner.

But while the Warriors ride off into the Moet-soaked sunset, the Cavs, and LeBron James (as he usually is) remain under the microscope. What happened in this series was very simple: the better team won, but the losing team came in (literally) without an arm and a leg. After LeBron's cinematic return to Cleveland, there was bound to be much said about their season either way, and now it's ended in the most bitter way imaginable. There's no telling how exactly a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving would've impacted this series (especially with Cleveland's defense being their sudden calling card), but for most of the Finals, four of the five best players on the court were Warriors.

The LeBron haters are coming out in droves to give him the Cersei treatment, like he just did something other than average 36/13/9 in the fucking NBA Finals. Give him, and me a break. Sure, his legacy in a vacuum is beginning to look like a cross between Jordan and Karl Malone, but nobody has ever won a title with as little talent as LBJ had around him the past couple weeks. Blaming him for losing in these Finals (even  if he was kind of a jackass about it) is completely ridiculous and unfair.


Another thing that seems pretty ridiculous is this whole notion of knocking LeBron (or any superstar for that matter) for 'losing' in the Finals. Even without a title, it's not like the season was a massive disappointment, or that he didn't totally put the team on his back. I get that it's in the East and all, but five straight trips to the Finals is something I think should be celebrated rather than "shame"d.

But enough about LeBron. Much as it was last year, this shouldn't be about him, but about the awesome team that just beat him. There's so much to be happy for with the Warriors:

Steph Curry is not only the MVP, but the NBA's burgeoning media darling and arguably most exciting player, and now a champion. This is the perfect moment for him. (a Finals MVP would've been a nice touch, but an unnecessary one. That said, it's shocking that he didn't even get a single vote).

Andre Iguodala humbly took a bench role for the first time in his career, and now he's a Finals MVP (!!!).

Steve Kerr proved how great of a hire he was, got rewarded for wisely choosing the Warriors over the Knicks last summer, and won as graciously as possible.

While Draymond Green isn't the most gracious player at times, he's certainly among the most hard-working, hilarious, and likable. And now he's got a ring to back up the talk; #swagonfleek.

Shaun Livingston battled back from one of the most injury-ravaged careers in NBA history to be a vital bench contributor for this team. After the Dubs' backup PG spot was a major issue last season, Livingston was a steady veteran presence, and one of the most deserving champions imaginable. (side note: while the Warriors were best team in the NBA this year, they were also unequivocally the healthiest)

And if you aren't happy for Festus 'The Court Fester' Ezeli, then screw you. Straight up.

The 2014-15 Warriors were a landmark NBA team; one that thrived on both sides of the ball, could play big or small, and gave teams problems in every permutation. They spent the entire season running roughshod through the league, blowing out opponents with stunning basketball and demoralizing flair. We wondered all year if anyone could stop them; apparently not even the "best player in the World" was enough.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

The Requisite MVP Favorites Column


"(excluding LeBron, KD and The Brow) I have as good of a chance of winning (MVP) as any remaining NBA player" -
Me, being an idiot, October 2014


Occasionally, making a bold prediction results in your words being eaten, and I've been binge-snacking on my own stupidity for several months.

The NBA is neck-deep into the most wide open MVP race the league's seen in quite some time, and not in the "has anyone really made a case for this award?" sense (see: Nash, Steve; 2005), but more "there's a lot of guys playing out of their fucking minds right now".

Depending on how you want to define "value" in the intentionally-ambiguous context of this award, it could go to any of several players, all of whom are deserving in a sense. The sudden obsession with advanced metrics has only muddied the water, adding even more facets to what was already a complex issue. Anyone with an educated MVP argument now has to consider elements like "Win Shares" and "True +/-"; concepts that for most intents and purposes didn't even exist a few years ago.

This year's MVP race has become a dizzying, confounding debate in which no fewer than five players hold very legitimate claims to the trophy, with razor-thin margins between them. It's a compelling, entertaining, all-out war for supremacy where powers trade places on a weekly basis. It's basically a Game of Thrones season playing out on a basketball court. Spring is coming, so it's almost time for the winner to be crowned - who stands the best shot?

The Pretenders
These are the guys on the outside looking in; the ones who've heard their name and "MVP" in the same sentence a couple times this year, but mostly by under-educated fans or attention-seeking media, and usually in conjunction with alcohol or meth consumption:

- DeMarcus Cousins (has had a very good year for a very dysfunctional franchise)

- Jeff Teague (sorry, but if you think one player on Atlanta deserves to be singled out in the MVP race, you're completely delusional about what makes them successful)

- Klay Thompson & Damian Lillard (if you're not your own team's MVP, you can't be the league's MVP) 

The Tweeners
These guys have had absolutely stellar seasons that in any lesser year would surely be legitimate MVP campaigns, but can't quite call themselves contenders in 2015:

- Chris Paul (as superb as he's been in a snapshot, the Clippers have just been way too inconsistent, while CP3 has oscillated between mailing-in stretches and taking over games)

- LaMarcus Aldridge (decided to forego hand surgery that would've sent Portland's season straight into the toilet, and instead has put up sublimely-efficient 20/10 lines for a likely Top-4 seed out West)

 - Marc Gasol (got off to a torrid start, only to see his output dissipate slightly amid a recent slump for Memphis, who are showing cracks for the first time all season)

The Contenders
.
..And here are the five players who are going to make picking an MVP this year an outright nightmare:

Anthony Davis


Davis just turned 22, and he's already a WMD on both sides of the ball, and terrifying the entire league with what they're in store for over the next decade. His defensive dominance and all-around brilliance are incredibly precocious, and he's carried an injury-ravaged Pelicans squad to within striking distance of the NBA's promise land: The West Playoffs.

Davis' odds of winning are likely heavily-predicated on that stupidly arbitrary benchmark of New Orleans making the Playoffs, which seems unlikely after they dropped four straight, falling to 10th in the West. That said, it bears noting that he's on pace for a PER of 31.31, a mark bested ever only by Wilt Chamberlain, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan. Again, this guy is 22 years old. He stands a very slim chance of winning MVP this year, but will certainly be filling that void in his trophy case soon.

LeBron James


The season started off in pretty disastrous fashion for the Default MVP; the Cavs were underwhelmingly crappy, and LeBron was, by his own lofty standards, casual and sluggish. There was much ado about all the miles his herculean body had logged, his ability to placate a ball-dominatrix like Kyrie Irving, and David Blatt's viability as an NBA coach.

Then LeBron took a much-needed (and more-chronicled) two week siesta in South Beach, and came back every bit the dream-crusher we all knew him to be. Not-so-coincidentally, the Cavs were suddenly steamrolling their way up the East standings, and looking like the contender they were pegged as preseason.

LeBron - for the first time in ages - is likely only a fringe contender to the MVP crown this year. If we're looking at his complete body of work, his first 28 games were largely a disappointment, and then he gave himself an 8-game vacation to get right. Regardless of how much he needed it, and the results it yielded, we're talking almost half a season there. Worse yet for his case, the next three guys have put in blatantly ridiculous seasons.

Stephen Curry

Steph Curry's having an outstanding season for an outstanding team; a mind-warping offensive threat who shreds teams like few others ever have. But it's the 'outstanding team' part that should be hurting his case.


With all due respect to Curry - and to common MVP voting logic - the MVP is an individual award. There's this awkward bias toward rewarding the 'best player on the best team' - which Curry absolutely is - that misplaces the sense of the word 'valuable'.

Team success should definitely be factored into the decision, but arbitrarily rewarding that 'best player on the best team' is missing the forest for the trees. Curry's been dominant, no question, but the Warriors' thriving this season has come from many directions:

- Andrew Bogut's been extremely healthy by his standards.
- Klay Thompson's taken a mini leap to "Legitimate All-Star" and "Guy Who Scored 37 Points in a Single Quarter".
- Draymond Green holds a very serious case in both the MIP and DPOY races.
- Their bench is much deeper than it was last season.
- Steve Kerr is, by all evidence, a large upgrade over Mark Jackson on the sidelines.
- David Lee's early injury conveniently forced them into the realization that they're better with a spacing, ball-moving 4, and without Lee's ghastly defense.

Speaking of defense, it's not exactly Curry's specialty either. While he's among the league's steals leaders, he's a gambler who gets beaten off the dribble easily, and is often 'hidden' as the weakest link of Golden State's league-leading D.

Added all up, while Curry's having an offensively-transcendent season, and creates so much of the Dubs' scoring, this is still very much a dominant team that excels for a variety of reasons. Saying he's carried them for any stretch this season would be dumb and unfair, much unlike the following two players:

Russell Westbrook



What Westbrook's done to the rest of the league since returning from a hand injury probably qualifies as abuse in some countries. Attacking opposition with a bloodthirsty relentlessness, he's carried the Thunder while decimating box score sheets, defying most concepts of human stamina, and making trading Kevin Durant an actually-talked-about thing.


Dropping 49 points and a triple-double simultaneously doesn't happen very often. Neither does averaging a triple-double for an entire month. Russell Westbrook did those things to people this year. He averaged a triple-double for an entire fucking month. He even went ballistic in the All-Star game for crying out loud.

Say what you want about his shot selection and conversion rate (.427; .301 from distance), he not only finishes possessions (leads the NBA in scoring), but creates them through rebounds (leads all guards) and steals (2nd in NBA), while having to put up with Dion Waiters in the backcourt.

He's been the Thunder's one consistent heartbeat, and the reason they're likely to make the Playoffs without Durant, whose now-confirmed absence can be another feather in Westy's MVP cap if OKC closes the season strong.There will also be more time to bloat his already-absurd averages of 27/8.7/7 w 2.2 steals and a 29.60 PER (which is the second-highest ever for a point guard). Westbrook's already putting up a strong MVP case, and if any contender has the most upside over the final 10 games (which absolutely matter in a race this close), it's probably him.

James Harden 


Harden's MVP narrative is multi-faceted, and speaks most directly to the meaning of 'value'. At this point, he should probably be considered the favorite. Maybe. Sort of. Who knows.

This season was supposed to be shitty for Houston. They'd largely been regarded as last offseason's Biggest Losers, dropping half their key rotation players and fanning on a third star. Things didn't look much better when Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones both went down early with injuries that would plague them all season. All hope seemed lost, but Harden uncorked a 27/7/6 masterpiece that has highly-improbably kept Houston in the fight for homecourt in the West.

There's detractors who will incorrectly point to Harden's once-comical defense, but his efforts and positioning have improved mightily over the past 12 months, and he's averaging almost 2 steals and a block per game. There's a reason why no sequels to James Harden Defensive Juggernaut have been made.

He aces pretty much all of the key MVP criteria, the only of the contenders who can truly make these claims:

- Statistically dominant, both in basic and advanced measures? Check.

- Successful and/or better-than-expected team? Absolutely.

- Carried said team for large stretches? More-so than any other player.

- Healthy all season? Yup.

Better yet, he's the only candidate who doesn't really have any legitimate, glaring holes in a year when every minor scuff or smudge on a resume has to count. Unlike LeBron's sleepwalking through the early season, Westbrook's injury and occasional spazz-outs, Curry's all-around team brilliance or The Brow's lack thereof, there's no real knock on Harden's 2014-15 campaign. Which is why he's (maybe, sort of, who knows) the likeliest MVP at this point, but in a race this close, anything can happen over the season's final month...

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Banter's 2015 NBA All-Stars


Basketball Banter has returned after a(nother) prolonged absence, to break down the All-Star ballot and figure out who should really be playing under the Garden's bright lights next month.

Normally I'd also be handing out some midseason awards this time of year, but I just finished those up for BallOverAll this weekend as most teams crossed the 40-game threshold. I figured re-typing the whole thing would be a pretty futile exercise, so you can check out the picks here.

Now onto the All-Stars, for whom fan voting officially ended yesterday. While the 'fans' have generally gotten better at actually paying attention to the league and not just voting for the most recognizable names, their collective appraisal of a few players (#Kobe) still leaves a lot to be desired. As such we're likely to see a few deserving players get the dreaded snub, but that's something to bitch about later. For now all that can be done is to hope to coaches get it right when casting their ballots for reserves - a process that is usually a challenge in itself.

My logic in voting is based on a somewhat-abstract weight of individual performance, and team relevance so far this season. Obviously there's a certain floor for teams standards; someone on, oh...I dunno, let's just say...the Knicks, can't even be brought up. But barring a complete Hindenburg of a season by a given player's team, they'll be considered. This is the All-Star Game after all, the best teams will get their due in the Playoffs.

Further, I take into account the player' entire body of work - including the 'popcorn stats' (pts/rebs/asts, etc), efficiency indicators, importance of their contributions to the team's success, and any other intangibles (like Damian Lillard's pathological cold-bloodedness in the waning minutes of close games).

What follows is a breakdown of each conference: The Starters (two guards, three frontcourt), The Bench (two guards, three frontcourt, and two "wild card" players of any position), as well as the "Regards To" (your basic snubs, the guys who I actually considered at some point), and "Milk Carton" (perennial All-Stars who, for a variety of reasons, just weren't in the conversation).

Let's get into it:


EAST ALL-STARS

STARTERS:


Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Lowry easily could've been Toronto's All-Star last year in Demar DeRozan's stead. But this season he's channeled yet another level, becoming an elite point guard in an era where the position's just completely, utterly stacked. He's been the pace-setter for the best NBA team Canada's ever put forth, looking svelte, and playing with a gritty tenacity that belies his new fat contract (among by buddies he's affectionately known as "Pudge Lowry", a nickname we might have to retire). One of the very best guards on both sides of the ball this year, Lowry's not only a no-brainer All-Star, but a fringe MVP candidate.

Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Somewhere between sorta and completely out of nowhere, Butler evolved into one of the NBA's most effective two-way players. This past summer, he summoned a quasi-deadly off-the-bounce game from scratch, and improved his shaky jumper, becoming a welcome offensive presence for the Bulls. He still plays suffocating defense, only with the added cachet of being the go-to perimeter option that Derrick Rose hasn't consistently provided. Like Lowry, he's been a monster on both sides of the ball, and his inclusion here - despite a strong showing from John Wall - is a must.

LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

So let's face facts: The Cavs have been depressingly underwhelming over the first half of this year, and the Default MVP is having a blatantly pedestrian season by his standards. But this is LeBron we're talking about here, the Best In The Game, the guy who was relevant, pompous, good enough to have brought the NBA to a standstill and caused pop-culture cataclysm with his last two free agencies. The only thing keeping him from being a starter in this Eastern Conference is a JR Smith-related suspension.

Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are absolutely crushing right now - winners of 13 straight, comfortably atop the East, and playing a selfless, balanced game that reflects Mike Budenholzer's 17-year tenure as an assistant on the Spurs bench. They could field (in some people's opinion) as many as four contenders for spots on this team. Despite a recent a surge from Al Horford, Millsap has been their best big man, comfortable shooting form distance or in the post, and leading all PF/Cs in steals. He's also pulling down over a rebound more than Horford each game, and looking like a great alternative to the guy he replaced in ATL.

Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls
He's still got it. Buried on some gawdawful Lakers teams for a few injury-nagged seasons, the O.G. (Original Gasol) is back, as nasty as he ever was. Pau's giving Chicago 19/game with career-bests in rebounds and blocks, as one of the rare uninjured Bulls this season. His recent 46/18 pulverization of Milwaukee was one of the season's standout performances thus far, and his play is one of the main reasons nobody's counting Chicago out in the East.

BENCH:

Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
Teague's been monstrous for the Hawks, and is even getting some distant MVP burn. He plays with deadly quickness, but precise control, and is piloting the NBA's hottest team right now.

John Wall, Washington Wizards
Speaking of deadly quickness, Wall's playing extremely well and buoying the East's Dark Horse through early injuries. A near-starter.

Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
While the Heat have been pretty suspect this year, Bosh is doing what he can; rediscovering his identity as a go-to option. An easy selection in a weak conference.

Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic
It's hard to penalize Voose for playing on a crappy team, not in the East where most of the teams are pretty crappy, and he's basically doing 20/11 for a squad that's only four games back of 8th in the East, despite being fourteen games under .500.

Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons

Since exorcising Josh Smith from their roster, the Pistons are on a serious Playoff push, and Drummond has gone full Hulk Smash after a very shaky start to this year.

Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
I honestly thought Wade was going to start coming apart at the seams this year - so much for that. He's been impressive when suiting up and - despite recent shooting woes - appears to have something left in the tank.

Brandon Knight, Milwaukee Bucks
The last wild-card spot came down to a deathmatch between a bunch of guys who really didn't scream "All Star!". Knight takes the last East jersey with his strong, efficient line for (Hawks aside) the East's surprise team.

Regards to: Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Marcin Gortat, Kyle Korver, Kemba Walker

Milk Carton: Al Jefferson, Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony

...And now to head out West, where we find perhaps the most confusing, abstract clusterfuck of potential title contenders in NBA history. A lot of very talented players make up those teams, and plenty of deserving candidates won't be getting the All-Star spot they'd surely earn in the East. Life's unfair sometimes I guess.

WEST ALL-STARS
STARTERS:

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Let me first start this off by pointing out how ludicrously unfair it is to have to pick two starters from a flock of West guards that's playing in the ether right now. A theoretical MVP Top-10 right now could plausibly be half-filled with players eligible for these spots; cutting so many to the bench seemed insulting.

With that said, Steph Curry might be the MVP at this point. So he's here. Curry's just been nothing short of lethal for the NBA's surprise best team. His gaudy numbers have slid inches with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green becoming more diverse and integral offensive cogs, but the Warriors' dominance this year makes Curry's lines all the more impressive.

James Harden, Houston Rockets

Neck-and-neck with Curry for MVP, and perhaps slightly ahead by most definitions, Harden's been a nuclear force on offense (and noticeably improved defender), carrying the Rockets to one of the West's best records through a slew of first-half injuries.

Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Just when every prototype of a future power forward was supposedly a floor-spacing perimeter gunner, along came the Brow and reminded us that there will always be a place for omni-talented freak athletes with massive wingspans who bounce off the hardcourt like a trampoline. Such has been Davis' year, putting up eye-popping stat lines off of minimal touches (his usage rate is fucking 36th in the NBA. Actually.), producing one of the most all-around efficient seasons in NBA history.

Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
He's been argued as the NBA's best all-around big man for a couple seasons now, but this year Gasol's come out and just ended the debate with a well-rounded romp that's put him in the center (accidental pun) of the MVP discussion. He does everything short of filling the Gatorade coolers for Memphis, who have solidified themselves in the upper tier of West contenders.

DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
The NBA (properly) developed the "Frontcourt" designation for All-Star voting a few seasons back, to recognize the more abstract and perimeter-oriented nature of positions in today's game (and spare us from the token mediocre, clearly-not-an-"All Star" center getting an ascribed nod). Well, with freedom comes excess, and I'm using it to start two centers, along with a guy who could be one in most systems. Screw it - needs to be done.

Boogie's been Godzilla on the block this year, demoralizing teams from the low-post while becoming one of the NBA's best-passing centers, and actually trying on defense. The Kings' performance during his bout with viral meningitis was a night-and-day difference, as this former-headcase of a behemoth is finally "getting it".

BENCH:

Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
The Clips have been inconsistent through stretches this year, but it's hard to blame CP3, who's putting in a monstrous year in terms of point guard efficiency.

Damian Lillard, Portland Trailblazers
Illard, Killard, Thrillard; whatever you want to call him, he's become the most feared late-game gunner in the NBA (with good reason), and has taken his defense to new heights, propelling the Blazers to a higher level.


Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers

Griffin's fallen in love with his jumper a bit too much at times, which has seen his shooting dip below 50%. but he's still one of the game's better all-around bigs and can't be excluded from the bench.

Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Father Time once came knocking for Tim Duncan, and got a bank shot nailed from the high post over his outstretched arm. This season's been a vintage Timmy performance, still so smooth after all these years.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trailblazers
Lillard's been Portland's most high-profile monster this year, but Aldridge has been no slouch himself, defying the stigma of the mid-range jumper as the NBA's best PF with two eyebrows.

Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
He may have been injured for the season's first month, but Westbrook has just been devastating since returning, putting up MVP numbers and loudly demanding a spot, regardless of time missed.

Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
The other Splash Brother's broken through to bonafide All-Star status, with his more diverse offensive arsenal playing a key role in the Warriors' dominance this year.

Regards to: (clears throat) Mike Conley, Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Zach Randolph, Eric Bledsoe, Rudy Gay, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday & Draymond Green

Milk Carton: Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Goran Dragic, David Lee

And that's the truth. Let's hope the real rosters look something like this next month in the Big Apple.