Monday, February 24, 2014

Putting the "Dead" in Deadline

The Trade Deadline came and went last week; a date that had built up with blockbuster potential for months "climaxed" dully with the seemingly inevitable dumping of Danny Granger's contract.

Despite an army of franchises actively shopping attractive assets, and others seeking to shake things up, the market may have over-played itself. Many teams' asking prices were reportedly too high, leaving most parties at the trade table favoring the upcoming loaded Draft and Free Agent classes to make their moves.

So what now for the teams that seemed destined to make moves, but hesitated to pull the trigger? Were they wise in waiting? What can they expect going forward? Let's see which GMs have screwed themselves, and which should come out on top:

Boston Celtics 
Rajon Rondo still being a Celtic is among the more bizarre aftermath of the Deadline, with Danny Ainge suddenly holding onto a guy he'd been shopping for years, at what seemed like the most logical time to finally deal him.

The irony of Ainge's decision gets diluted when you consider that Rondo's actually a very good fit for a young team searching for its identity through a re-build, as a versatile cog for a smart coach who's a whiz with quirky lineups. Keeping him can't be an awful decision; he's a Top 15-ish player, just turned 28, and his market value could rise if Boston suddenly seems less keen on dumping him.

It's one of those hands that's hard to misplay; Boston might not have liked offers that came their way, but being left to rebuild with one of the NBA's best point guards isn't a Saw game, which Ainge may be realizing.

Toronto Raptors
Few GMs in pro sports history have developed reputations as movers and shakers as quickly and astutely as Ujiri. After ousting the Raptors' two ugliest contracts in moves that showed immediate + returns, Masai was rumored to be in talks around a deal for Kyle Lowry for most of this season.

Masai's inability to move Lowry is a minor disappointment, but hardly a fatal wound for Toronto. The reality is that Lowry's trade value has never been this high, and likely never will be again, so unless he's their point guard going forward, the time to bail was now. His superb play this season will absolutely earn him more money next year, and it's unclear if he'll be as fit and motivated with his new deal locked up.

Masai's track record might even be hurting his cause, with at least one (confirmed) case of a team unwilling to be "fleeced" by him again. Regardless, few people in NBA front offices - likely only Daryl Morey - understand trading assets like Ujiri, and with virtually every player in Toronto's rotation playing up their own stock this year, he'll have nice pieces to work with, even if Lowry is signs elsewhere.

Houston Rockets
Speaking of Daryl Morey, his own shrewdness has come back to bite him in the ass.

Two years ago, Morey snaked the criminally under-utilized Omer Asik from the Bulls with a "poison pill" contract that saw his originally meager salary triple in its upcoming final year.

In the meantime, Asik's been one of the NBA's most improved players, and best defensive centers, but Morey's attempt to pass the buck (literally) on Asik's bloated remaining year came undone. Teams were wary of the looming salary boom, and Morey's habit of usually being way smarter than the guy on the other end of the phone.

And so, after the passing of several team-mandated deadlines, and finally the League's, Omer Asik is still on the Houston Rockets, in a limited reserve role, openly unhappy, and due almost $15 million next season.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Among the League's relative disappointments this season (remember, this is still largely a David Kahn team), the Wolves are seemingly under pressure to release Kevin Love from the pack.

A continually visibly unhappy superstar whose contract expires after next year, Love will eventually leave Minnesota, but they can decide whether on their terms or his. The lack of action last week only hurts their rebuild timetable; it's not as though there won't still be teams lining up for him in the offseason, when offices with room to maneuver might be more willing to make a big play for a superstar.

The Wolves need to begin to treat this with urgency though. Love can't remain undealt going into next season; it will delay the inevitable, shroud their team in uncertainty, and give opposing GMs more leverage as his departure draws closer. This is just like ripping off a Band-Aid; it will hurt a lot less if done quickly.

L.A. Lakers 
Everyone and their grandmother on Twitter spent the weeks leading up to the Deadline suggesting that Pau Gasol was about to be dealt, but the Lakers were unlikely to get as much value out of Gasol as they could this summer.

The Lakers are unloading most of their payroll in July, and can either re-sign Gasol at a significant rebate via 'Bird Rights', or let him walk and have eight figures in extra cap room. That cap room is intrinsically worth more to the Lakers than most franchises; they're able to attract top-tier talent easily and will never have to overpay someone to join them.

Already armed with a fresh Spending License, and a very good shot at a high Lottery pick, this was probably good spot for the Lakers to bide their time.

New York Knicks
Carmelo's still a Knick, and the odds of him re-signing in a few months rest somewhere between New York's chances of making the Playoffs, and having a Lottery pick in this year's Draft.

Knicks fans, my continued sympathies.


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