A Tale of Four Cities

So here we are, down to the NBA's version of the Final Four, left with the quartet of squads that figured to be here, both in terms of seeding, and most season-long projections.

What's unfortunate is that the heavyweight bouts we'd all hoped for might not go down according to plan, as the Thunder once again find themselves with a crippling injury at the worst of times, and the Pacers seemingly swoon in and out of coherent basketball by the quarter.

Trying to figure out these Pacers right now is a losing proposition; they've been the most mercurial top seed in recent memory (last year's Heat being the possible exception) and have had their collective chain rattled by inferior teams too often, both in the Playoffs and 2014 in general. Place your bets and hope for the best.

Paul George has been taken out of games entirely for stretches and utterly dominated others. Roy Hibbert's putting up donuts one night, and dancing all over the Wizards' once-feared front line the next. Lance Stephenson is, well, being Lance Stephenson, and their bench is all over the map; with CJ Watson as a beacon of consistency, and Luis Scola mostly in Walking Dead Mode.

Of course, Indiana matches up very well with the Heat, and have given them problems ever since Miami's Big 3 came together. The George/Hibbert combo is likely the best means on Earth of containing LeBron James, while The Pacers aren't exactly uncomfortable with Miami's style of play. That said, it's all contingent on which version of them will show up from night to night, when the Heat are playing at a much higher level more consistently.

At their best, Indiana could take this series to seven games easily, but when was the last time you saw them play anywhere near their best for anywhere near that long a stretch? January maybe? That they've survived this long is a slight miracle and testament to just how thin the East was this year. And keep in mind, they're facing the two-time champs, who are looking at the Pacers like wounded prey right now; they'll be far more of a test than a maligned Hawks roster or an inexperienced Wizards team could hope to be nightly.

The only thing these current Pacers really have going for them heading into this series is that they didn't cough the ball up much against Washington, but Miami's pestering defense will likely force plenty more turnovers (unleashing their lethal transition game) and be far less prone to the lapses that so often produced Pacers buckets in the East Semis.

One off game could be enough to blow this series for Bird's Boys, and at their current pace, they're likely due for at least two. As much as Miami has brought the best out of them - especially Hibbert - it's just too much to trust that the Pacers, right now, will be able to compete on their level consistently. They're certainly capable of proving me wrong, but the past few months suggest it's not going to happen. HEAT in 5. 

Meanwhile in the West, the potential for an epic clash may have been thwarted by the bummer announcement that Serge Ibaka's done for the season; a huge blow to OKC's title chase for the second straight year. Just when the refs had gifted-wrapped a series for them they'd started to get back to their winning style, they're dealt a potentially-crippling blow against an opponent that just took a semi-dangerous team like Portland and completely toyed with them.

Any kind of big injury is potentially a huge issue for Scott Brooks, who isn't exactly a genius with lineup adjustments, and is going to struggle to replace Power Serge against the Spurs' deep and diverse bench. Nick Collison is definitely one of the NBA's better backup bigs - a smart, deceptively athletic two-way player who's likely among the league's Top 5 best-passing big men - but he's nowhere near the interior protector Ibaka is. That will be apparent when Duncan's dissecting in the high post and Tony Parker (hamstring-pending) slices into the paint at will. We're likely to see heavy doses of the Collison/Steven Adams combo, which could be worse defensively, but the two of them together aren't even close to the athletic, floor-spacing threat Ibaka is on offense.

There might finally be somewhere near enough shots for both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who are going to have to play out of their minds if the Thunder are to stand a chance. Good looks will be somewhat harder to come by with more attention on them defensively, which requires their optimal efficiency. This will probably mean deferring to KD in the clutch, which Russ has been infuriatingly hesitant to do. It's really not that complicated, Westbrook's one of the best scorers in the NBA today, Durant's one of the best scorers ever. The MVP is an absolute killer down the stretch of close games, the Spurs are infinitely less likely to make the kind of mistakes L.A. did. The margins will be slimmer, so the Thunder will have to grind every edge carefully, meaning the offense has to go through KD in tight spots. 

San Antonio just looked great in the second round, an amazingly thorough roster, with an answer for seemingly any matchup. They can deceptively mold into their surroundings, patiently forcing mistakes and delivering fatal blows. They're part chameleon, part Komodo dragon.

Their single biggest threat is that they don't have just one; it can come from literally anywhere. The Big Three are constantly liable for game-changing performances, and Sugar K Leonard has once again become his borderline-dominant Playoff self. Their supporting cast is probably deeper than any team since the Bad Boys went back-to-back, and stunningly consistent. Leonard will pose a particularly large hurdle to Durant, who, while far from being "Inconsistent", certainly let Tony Allen and Chris Paul take him out of games for stretches his team can't afford against the Spurs.

Again, I feel slightly cheated. This could easily have been a seven-game thriller with OKC at full strength and Popovich unleashing the product of his most calculated (and impressive) Playoff Resting Campaign ever. But with the Thunder already slim underdogs, and now missing Ibaka, it's tough to see them taking more than two games from The System. SPURS in 6.