Thursday, May 29, 2014

Breaking Down the $15 Dream Team Meme

In an age where you can't even get a pair of drinks at most bars for as much, $15 suddenly can buy you a starting lineup of NBA legends.

If you're an NBA fan who spends anywhere beyond a moderate amount of time on the internet, then you've no doubt encountered this inquisitive meme (or one like it), imploring you to hatch a literal All-Time Dream Team - only under a pretty stringent salary cap.

I have mixed feelings about these things, but have been confronted with them enough, especially this week - in an NBA Facebook group I frequent, on the website I write for, all over Twitter - that I've succumbed to the exposure. While the result is ultimately just another blurb in an endless line of fruitless Internet debates, it's a new spin on an idea that every fan has toyed with from time to time. Only its execution leaves a lot to be desired:

Conceptually it's kind of vague. I tend to over-think things, but it's hard for me to look at something like this and not ponder; "Are we getting these guys at their peaks, or as aggregates of their careers?", "Is this for one game? A Playoff series? A whole Playoffs? A season? Longer?", "Are we playing under today's NBA rules?" (ex; West has a 3-point line, Hack-A-Wilt is deployed regularly, and Jordan can feast on defenses that can't hand-check him), and so on. Maybe its intent was intentionally open-ended in that regard, but as with the NBA's award voting, this mostly just leads people to misinterpretation.

Things are further muddled by the rankings, especially at the four-spot. Advanced apologies to whoever created this, but anyone who honestly believes Karl Malone is the best power forward ever is either grossly misinformed, or in the intermediate stages of mental decay.


That the consensus best all-timer (Duncan) is in the middle of the scale at $3, murders the whole position's equity, and makes it hard to give much benefit of doubt to the other questionable price rankings (Erving over Durant, Drexler over Wade, Kareem over Russell, and basically the entire PF position.)

Furthermore, this system works on the flawed assumption that the value margins at every position are similar; that, for example, the power forward and center positions carry equal weight - Duncan would likely be the only PF in the Top-5 if those two groups merged - or that Michael Jordan should have the same price as any other player.

Be that as it may, I'm giving it a shot nonetheless, assuming that I'm drafting the player during his prime, for a Playoff series vs. this theoretical Draft Pool's 'B' Team, under current NBA rules. I'm also proceeding with the Power Forward rankings hesitantly; if someone's offering me Garnett for 1/5th Malone's price, I'm mildly petrified that it's the 2014 version.

With such a talent pool, you'd have to try pretty hard to spend $15 and screw this Draft up; it's kind of like playing the CPU on easy in 2K14. There's arguments to be made for a number of selection strategies; really these are the All-Time Greats, not the 2013 NBA Entry Class, you could shoot blindfolded and still come out OK.

THE DRAFT:

The obvious first move is to take Jordan (= $10 left). He's not only the best payer available at a capped price, but a must-leader for this team as a legendary competitive maniac. Bill Russell is the only player in NBA history to register on his level in that regard; every favorable team from this Draft should have one of those two guys.

I wanted to ensure that strong-to-elite defenders lined every position. If these guys are taking on a similar squad, there's no hiding anyone on D, and far less room for lapses. Several players here are spotty defenders, making them instant scratches (sorry, Dirk). I also leaned towards athleticism, versatility and intangibles in close calls; it's the small things that count big when the margins are slim.

Next up, I'm filling the other backcourt slot with Walt Frazier (= $9 left), an immense value at just $1, as a versatile offensive threat and, by reputation, the best defender of the PGs here. In a perfect World, having John Stockton as uber-facilitator on a team this stacked would be ideal, but Frazier is the more athletic option, and saving on him will allow me to splurge later.

Durant at the 3-spot (= $7 left). Just too great of a value at $2, and a perfect fit for a team where Jordan/Frazier figure to be ball-dominant. Playing alongside Russell Westbrook for the past few years, KD's grown accustomed to working with fewer touches, yet still finds ways to score at mind-warping rates. He'll stretch the floor, can contain anyone he's matched up with, and is among the least egomaniacal guys you could put on a team like this.

As noted, I consider the Power Forward rankings are wildly unfair. I'd also see it as unfair if I walked into Best Buy and they offered me a 70" TV for $300, but I'd likely take them up on the offer. As such, I've gotta steal Tim Duncan (= $4 left), again the best defender - not to mention best player - at the position. Timmy can operate effectively in the low or high post, slide to center if needed, and won more titles in first two seasons than the guys frivolously valued higher than him did in their entire careers.

That leaves me with 4 bucks to drop on Bill Russell, who would team with Jordan to form a yin-yang of ultimate competitive fire. Both were pathological winners, and enabled that desire to permeate to their teammates, only Russell's was administered through brotherhood and sacrifice, as opposed to Jordan's respect and outright fear. I'm steadfastly convinced that no team with Jordan, Russell, and three other all-timers could lose here, especially under the assumption that  this isn't Street Fighter, and drafting them would prevent my team from facing them.

Russ was no slouch as a ballplayer either, though his brilliance has been distorted by the decades since his career, and the lack of extensive video from his era. I've seen painfully few of his games; most of my knowledge of him comes through stats, archives, and anecdotes. But the unanimous verdict (I've never heard a dissenting opinion from an analyst or former player) is that his skills and athleticism were years ahead of their time, and that Russell stood alone as a teammate and winner.


Picture a cross between Serge Ibaka, Joakim Noah and Dennis Rodman, giving him all of their best traits while supplanting none of the bad. On steroids. He was by all accounts the greatest defender who ever lived, and a heavily underrated offensive player, who valued involving teammates over scoring himself, in stark contrast to many big men of his era (as a result, he won 11 titles in 13 seasons, also in stark contrast to many big men of his era). His facilitator mentality from the post would be vital to a roster with so much firepower, and if you thought Duncan formed a strong post-passing corps with Diaw and Splitter, these guys would be levels beyond.

He rounds out a unit that features the (most likely) best defender available at four of five positions, and while you can't expect to shut a team down in an All-Time All-Star Game, this is a devastating lineup on D, and would make life tough on anyone at times. They'd be deadly both in the halfcourt, and an uptempo, transition-style game, and have formidable length across the entire front line. No Easy Buckets.

Again, this mostly boils down to Russell and Jordan though. In a debate as abstract and complex as this one, it's easy to over-complicate things, delve into convoluted hypothetical matchups and synergies, and forget the basics: That these two on their own had impermeable wills to win, and that even against the top-tier opposition from this Draft, many of whom were denied championships at their hands, they'd likely be just as unstoppable together.

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