Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Banter's 2015-16 NBA Preview: Part I - The East
It's that time again.
After months of baseball, tennis and televised darts, the NBA is returning in a blaze of glory. This season has the potential to be especially epic, and though I'm a die-hard fan who gets excited about anything basketball-related, we're truly blessed to be witnessing the NBA's current evolutionary epoch.
Not only is the talent in professional basketball absurdly stacked right now - a testament to the sport's exponential growth in popularity - but more refined training and conditioning have taken athleticism to new speeds and heights.
The game itself is growing rapidly as well; the advent of analytic stats, and revolutionary technology like SportVu have allowed us to understand basketball in ways never possible before, and for the game's best tacticians to use that knowledge to their advantage.
And all that talent is being put to use; front offices have undergone a rapid upgrade in overall intelligence in this era of the "NBA as a Business", and far fewer teams are lighting money on fire without coherent strategies. The result has been more fast-paced, polished, calculated, competitive team basketball. Unless you live in Philly, there's never been more to be excited about.
So with the preseason underway and Opening Night mere weeks beyond us, let's break down who's going to be doing what in the NBA this year, beginning with the East.
EAST STANDINGS:
15- Philadelphia 76ers
It must be awesome having Brett Brown's job. Can you plausibly imagine any scenario other than the current Sixers front office, in which the company mandate is to be shamelessly awful and you're paid millions of dollars to coach without any pressure to perform (other than, you know, not winning too many games) or job security issues? This is going on year three now guys. Your fans deserve better, and the rest of us are just getting bored.
14- Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn limped into last year's playoffs almost by default, after the rest of the contenders for the East's final spot self-destructed for various reasons down the stretch. With several of those teams making noticeable offseason upgrades, the Nets lost four rotation players and pulled in... Andrea Bargnani? While Jarrett Jack may end up being an upgrade over the flaky Deron Williams, his move to a starting role stretched the Nets' bench thin. Shane Larkin will likely see most of the backup PG minutes, and though he showed flashes last season, he's no Jack. Brook Lopez is always a few steps away from a leg injury, and Joe Johnson's legitimately graying now. It's unclear how Brooklyn will embrace their imminent rebuild with no cap space or draft picks, but no matter your squad it's gonna be a long season in Gotham (to be continued shortly).
13- Orlando Magic
How this team managed to theoretically "win" the Dwight Howard trade and still hasn't cracked the playoffs in the East is completely beyond me. They've stockpiled a nice young core of talent, but still aren't winning, mostly because they can't defend anybody. Lineups with as many defensive leaks as Orlando (especially close to the hoop) need to be historically great offensively to succeed, and the Magic, well... aren't. Team Disneyland is loaded with upside and could make a playoff push but would likely need some help from a rival injury and a big leap from one of its young guards (after Vic Oladipo's growth curve more or less flat-lined last year). Scott Skiles is a large upgrade running the show, but they've been "a couple years away" for a couple years now, and it looks very likely like a couple more.
12- Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are a weirdly interesting bunch heading into this season. They're deeper than last year, and have a reasonable ceiling, but there's quite a few yellow flags around this team - two big ones in particular. The first is obviously that they lost their best player in the offseason. Greg Monroe leaves a large scoring void, and his absence will make it easier for defenses to key on Andre Drummond. The other is the perplexing thought of Reggie Jackson and Brandon Jennings co-existing in a backcourt on any level. Stranger things have happened, but if Stan Van pulls that off without any brawls or social media feuds it'll be impressive. There's potential for things to go either way here, but I feel like south (as in vacation in April) is where Detroit's headed.
11- New York Knicks
The Knicks will be a better team this year. They upgraded several positions in the offseason, and have a healthy Carmelo Anthony (in body, though perhaps not in mind). But when you were as putrid as the Knicks were last year, only dramatic turnarounds will equate to success, and they don't appear to be there yet. New York's fans shouldn't have expected a free agency jackpot; Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo are nice lures for a franchise in the Knicks' state. Lopez instantly gives the Knicks a nice defensive presence inside after they foolishly dealt Tyson Chandler, and Afflalo can be a second or third-option type that New York's struggled to put around Melo since Amar'e Stoudemire's knees went all Ewing. And if this Porzingis kid gives them anything in year one, it's just icing on the cake.
10- Charlotte Hornets
The big brass coming out of Charlotte this summer was the pilfering of Nic Batum from the Blazers, and his apparent "bigger role" in the Hornets' offense. Coach Steve Clifford has suggested Batum as the "1st or 2nd" option on a team that already has Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. The gamble is obviously in whether Batum's ready to take on such a role; a proposition I'm fairly confident will be a losing one. Batum's an overly-passive player whose biggest faults are his lack of primacy and inability to make defenders pay for mistakes. It surely won't be as disastrous as their last swingman acquisition; at-worst he's a uniquely versatile role-player (and a huge safety net with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist done for the year). But getting your hopes up about Batum being the answer might not be a healthy idea. I'd rather put stock in better post-Lance Stephenson cohesion and a more consistent Jefferson keeping the Hornets anywhere near the playoffs.
9- Boston Celtics
The Celtics were a walking anachronism last year; a team that by all logic should've tried to make the lottery, but was too well-coached to suck as much as the rest of the East. Then they made a trade for a guy who would become their best player down the stretch, and fumbled towards a tragic game of Red Rover with Kevin Love. The David Lee trade was a nice move, but not really enough to keep up with an Eastern Conference whose playoff picture suddenly isn't so pathetic anymore. Adding Amir Johnson on a short-term deal (and a relative bargain considering what Tristan Thompson has the Cavs up against) might prove redundant. Boston is now armed with a glut of depth at the 4/5 spots, and no clear starters, though lineup creativity has never been an issue for Brad Stevens. The Celtics seem to be stockpiling assets rather than building a team; there's a good chance that Danny Ainge blows some (or all) of this up while hoarding draft picks, so the Celtics might be (wisely) headed to the lotto this year.
8- Indiana Pacers
So they lost Roy Hibbert. Whatever. He was quickly becoming a proverbial "box of chocolates" (word to Sally Field) in which two-thirds of said chocolates were the crappy jam-filled ones. David West's departure is a blow to this team's toughness, leaving a void at power forward that hopefully someone other than the returning Paul George can fill. But getting George back - and Monta Ellis to boot - is a much-needed adrenaline shot to an offense that went full Bernie Lomax for much of last season. This prediction obviously hinges on George being in good health, but all signs point to that being the case. If he's anywhere close to his old self, PG and Ellis will aptly lead what last year was an often rudderless quest to put the ball in the hoop. The question is whether the Pacers can sustain their defensive identity without Hibbert, to which the answer should be yes.
7- Toronto Raptors
I like what the Raptors did this offseason. They were a woeful defensive unit last year and took steps to shore up their D without shaking the team's core. Corey Joseph and Bismack Biyombo will be large pluses for the second unit's resistance, and DeMarre Carroll upgrades their large wing defender (Terrence Ross) from an inconsistency to a strong point that can even match with the every-trendy 'stretch four'. Carroll's issue will be his ability to integrate into an offense that last season was the polar opposite of the Hawks's swing-heavy team harmony. Kyle Lowry and Demat DeRozan are ball-dominant stars; either they or Carroll will have to adjust for him be as effective as he was in ATL. This team is still relatively young, and has upside to spare if the pieces come together. Hopefully they - and coach Dwayne Casey - learned a thing or two about focus and toughness after the pistol-whipping Washington laid on them last spring. Speaking of the Wizard Party...
6- Washington Wizards
The Wizards basically stood pat this offseason, losing Paul Pierce to the Clippers and seemingly betting that Otto Porter is ready for a starter's role. Bradley Beal will happily accept the increased looks he's sure to get as a result. While John Wall continues to propel this team, it will be a leap from Beal - one that was curiously absent in his career arc last season - to take this team a notch higher. I'm willing to treat their post-All-Star meltdown as part growing pain, part anomaly; the Wizards should be more consistent this year. That said, the middle of the East playoff bracket is noticeably better this year, and "more consistent" isn't going to lift you with the tide.
5- Milwaukee Bucks
Welcome to team "What If" of the 2015-16 Eastern Conference. They're young and somewhat tough to gauge but the pieces are all here for a potential 'team leap'. First off they addressed their pitiful scoring by injecting Greg Monroe into the pivot, who immediately becomes their go-to guy. They'll also get Jabari Parker back, who should be (at worst) a good second-unit option once he's operational. Then figure in an increased role for John Henson; perhaps the NBA's most criminally under-utilized player last season, who the Bucks recently sunk $44 million into - presumably not to ride the pine. And then there's that Antetokounmpo kid, who could very easily take another large stride this season (pun completely intended), at which point the All-Star game would be in his sights. Basically, a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Bucks to not be a significantly better team this year; place bets accordingly.
4- Atlanta Hawks
There's no question that losing DeMarre Carroll hurts the Hawks. He was about as close to a perfect role player for Atlanta's system as you could ask for. This is a strong unit though, and they shouldn't be crippled by his departure. Millsap and Horford still form one of the NBA's best frontcourts. Jeff Teague is still a borderline-elite PG. They're still a lethal team from long-range (#Korver). Dennis Schroder is ready to make a larger impact, and upgrading from Pero Antic to Tiago Splitter is massive for their bench. They'll stumble, but not far.
3- Miami Heat
As if there was any doubt that a Pat Riley team would be on the mat for too long, the Heat have bounced back with a loaded lineup that will break the East's upper tier if healthy. Miami will pair Goran Dragic and Chris Bosh for the first time, allowing Dwyane Wade to play at a far more sustainable pace. Hassan Whiteside is a defensive monster providing elite, athletic rim protection even amid the more-than-occasional headache. Luol Deng is still a two-way horse and a guy any team would love to have as a fourth option. And that's just the starting lineup. They thieved Gerald Green and Amar'e Stoudemire with veteran's minimum deals, giving their bench instant scoring and a dose of whatever Amar'e has left. They also managed to parlay their near-playoff miss into Justise Winslow, who many pundits feel will go down as the steal of the 2015 Lottery. Add a dash of Josh McRoberts back to the lineup, and this is suddenly a pretty scary rotation if Whiteside doesn't cause an extinction-level event.
2- Chicago Bulls
In the wake of Tom Thibodeau's unceremonious departure from the Windy City, plenty has been made of the physical demands on his players, and the toll it took on their health records - particularly that of one Derrick Rose. With Thibs out the door, the Bulls should be more rested if nothing else this year, which may (probably) translate to being healthier. See, the Bulls weren't really at full strength at any point last year (or any long stretch of Thibs' tenure for that matter). And at full strength this a really fucking good basketball team. Give them the continuity factor (roster is virtually unchanged) and the freedom from Thibs' iron-fisted rule, and they're likely the best of the East's bridesmaids.
1- Cleveland Cavaliers
It happened in Miami the last time around; it's surprising that it was such a big deal when it happened in Cleveland. There was an awkward feeling-out period for three go-to superstars sharing the court; these things take time. But then it clicked, and the Cavs started crushing the East, something not even Kevin Love's injury could offset. Although the back-alley standoff with Tristan Thompson is still awkwardly marring their season preparations, it's highly likely Thompson will cave and negotiate after letting the mid-level exception expire, burning his "I can bolt next summer" leverage. But even without Thompson this is the East's best team - they lost two All-Stars and almost won the title for fuck's sake, And though several rivals should be stronger, it's doubtful they'll have enough to topple the Cavs.
That's it for Part I, stay tuned for Part II (The West) and Part III (The Hardware), dropping soon...
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment