Now that you've endured me blabbering on about every team's season prognosis for several thousand words, we get to the fun part: the awards; the hardware; the glory.
What follows are Banter's predictions for the NBA's All-Stars, awards, and playoff results. These picks are more or less who I believe will be selected, more so than who should be. It's tough to completely compartmentalize that bias when making these predictions, but I'll try.
Before we get to that madness, a brief pause to acknowledge the passing of T-Wolves' Coach/GM Flip Saunders; a longtime and widely-beloved NBA fixture who tragically lost a battle with cancer at age 60. Thoughts are definitely with the Wolves and Saunders family during this tough time; Flip will be missed.
And so, without further ado...
EAST ALL-STARS:
STARTERS: G- John Wall, G- Kyrie Irving, F- LeBron James, F- Carmelo Anthony, F- Pau Gasol
BENCH: G- Jeff Teague, G- Jimmy Butler, F- Chris Bosh, F- Paul Millsap, F- Kevin Love, WC- Kyle Lowry, WC- Paul George
WEST ALL-STARS:STARTERS: G- Steph Curry, G- Chris Paul, F- Kevin Durant, F- Anthony Davis, F- Marc Gasol
BENCH: G- James Harden, G- Russell Westbrook, F- Blake Griffin, F- Kawhi Leonard, F- DeMarcus Cousins, WC- LaMarcus Aldridge, WC- Klay Thompson
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
This is going to be a pretty interesting race this year. Myles Turner could blow up. D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay will both be thrust into the spotlight as contribution-heavy starters. Jahlil Okafor has an NBA-ready game, vying for the one award where team success has (or should have) no bearing at all.
That said, Towns is a total bully on the block who might have most NBA-suited body we've seen on a rookie in years. He'll be stuffed into a low-expectation, high-upside unit where he'll be able to contribute from Day 1 without any fear of a short leash. His energy and physicality suggest he's a very unlikely candidate to hit the 'rookie wall', and every scout who's seen him play at length is very high on him. Time to make Flip proud.
Contenders: Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, Myles Turner
All-Rookie Teams: First- G- D'Angelo Russell, G- Emmanuel Mudiay, F- Stanley Johnson, F- Karl-Anthony Towns, C- Jahlil Okafor
Second- G- Jerian Grant, G- Justise Winslow, F- Trey Lyles, F- Mario Hezonja, C- Myles Turner
Trying to predict this award is a painfully futile process. The winner usually winds up coaching a team that defied or exceeded expectations (and therefore wasn't a logical prediction pick). If the team was supposed to be good, that usually somehow counts as a strike against Coach X (which is totally counterintuitive but I digress..). Place your bets and hope for the best.
Contenders: Gregg Popovich, Brad Stevens, Jason Kidd, Fred Hoiberg
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls
Early indications out of Chicago are that Fred Hoiberg favors a Gasol-Mirotic frontline that spaces the floor in the trendy NBA offensive setup. If this holds true, Noah would have to be the favorite for Sixth Man, as a high-energy menace off the bench who could see minutes at both 4 and 5.
I'm predicting Noah will bounce back after an off year in which he seemed visibly burnt out by the Tom Thibodeau Grind. With Thibs out the door, Noah - who doesn't know how to take a possession off - will get to pick his spots a little better and play with max energy and primacy more consistently.
If he remains a reserve this award might be a wrap, but a reclamation of his starting spot could open the door up for...
Contenders: Isaiah Thomas, Ryan Anderson, Dennis Schroder, Nikola Mirotic
MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: CJ McCollum, Portland Trailblazers
The reality of this award is that its definition warps from season-to-season on a strangely arbitrary basis. Its nature also defies predictions to a large extent because it appeals to the unexpected. So I'm fully expecting my prediction here to backfire, but McCollum - who was red-hot during the post and pre-season - will have ample opportunity to make his mark.
He should be starting by December, and will be able to take advantage of a decimated Blazers roster that's short on any kind of consistent offensive backup for Damian Lillard. McCollum was always touted as an NBA-ready draft prospect, but had his first two seasons derailed by injuries and heavy competition for minutes. Both those factors - along with expectations for Portland - are gone, leaving all the pieces in place for a serious MIP push.
Contenders: Bradley Beal, Meyers Leonard, Nicolas Batum, Elfrid Payton
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
This just feels like a slow train coming, albeit not that slowly. Davis is an otherworldly defensive freak in the pivot, the likes of which the NBA hasn't seen since Hakeem Olajuwon (all apologies to Ben Wallace). He put up eye-popping numbers last year, most of which he played as a 21 year-old.
Now give him another year of growth (both physicality and ability terms), and shift him from a team that played at a glacial pace to one that's going to run more than Forrest Gump. Simply put, Davis' raw statistics are going to be unfathomable this year; it's hard to place a ceiling on what he might do. Beyond that, his versatility as a big man is unparalleled; he's mobile enough to chase larger wings and stretch bigs, while closing out on jump shooters and pick & rolls better than pretty much anyone.
With all the trendy focus on defensive metrics, there's sure to be plenty of convoluted arguments for a variety of players, but I'm thinking Davis at fully-spread wings will be too much to ignore.
Contenders: Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green, Serge Ibaka
All-Defensive Teams: First- G- Chris Paul, G- Tony Allen, F- Kawhi Leonard, F- Anthony Davis, C- Rudy Gobert
Second- G- Mike Conley, G- Jimmy Butler, F- Draymond Green, F- Serge Ibaka, C- Andrew Bogut
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Ya, I've got Davis doing the double-dip this year. Instead of go on about why he should win MVP this year, instead let's talk about why all the other contenders probably won't:
Steph Curry: Won an insanely-competitive MVP race last year in surprisingly-decisive fashion (#GroupThink). This was mostly due to the Warriors' dominance of a conference that's highly-unlikely to yield another 67-win team (since the rest of its Top 5 all improved noticeably in the offseason).
James Harden: Last year's runner-up as an all-around stat monster. He'll still be a killer this year, but will be slightly less of an omnipresent force for Houston with Ty Lawson alongside him and a healthier frontcourt. His numbers should dip accordingly, bringing his MVP case with them.
LeBron James: Unless Cleveland absolutely pummels the East this year (and teams "playing for June" like the Cavs seldom do), it's going to be tough to give LeBron a nod. He knows he's the best player alive and is likely spending most of the regular season on relative cruise control as he inches further into his 30's.
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook: Are likely to cancel each other out this year. There's a reason why Shaq & Kobe only have one MVP each.
Of course some other unknown contender might throw his hat into the ring, but at this point it would be foolish to bet against Davis on a healthier team, with a better coach, and the "His Time is Now" narrative likely to fuel lots of subconscious motivation in the minds of voters. The Pelicans will need a rival injury to crack the West's top-6, but Davis is going to be good enough to seriously challenge the notion that the MVP has to come from a contender.
All-NBA Teams: First- G- Stephen Curry, G- James Harden, F- LeBron James, F- Anthony Davis, C- Marc Gasol
Second- G- Russell Westbrook, G- Chris Paul, F- Kawhi Leonard, F- Kevin Durant, C- DeMarcus Cousins
Third- G- John Wall, G- Jimmy Butler, F- Paul George, F- Blake Griffin, C- Al Horford
PLAYOFFS:
East Finals: Cavs over Bulls
West Finals: Spurs over Warriors
NBA CHAMPION: Cleveland Cavaliers
Ya. There it is. I'm going against the grain of the West's clear superiority, if for no other reason than it's going to be toughest conference ever to escape intact in the playoffs. These teams are going to beat the living shit out of each other over a plethora of seven-game series, while the Cavs could walk rested and untested to a Finals where they'll (odds are heavy) be healthier than last year when LeBron came within two games of winning a title with Tristan Thompson as his 2nd-best player. They'll have continuity and more experience on their side as well (remember last year was both Love and Irving's first trip to the postseason), not having to work a new roster together on the fly throughout the season. LeBron's lost his last two trips to the Finals, and much like the last time, I don't see him standing for a third.
That's it for the Preview kids, it's time for the 2015-16 NBA season to unfold...
No comments:
Post a Comment