So it comes to this.
A seven game bout between the two best teams in NBA, led by its two best players, seeking the ultimate goal.
These two superstars contrast each other as starkly as the teams they lead: a humble, quiet, almost passive-aggressive hipster at the head of a shrewdly-cobbled, well-developed Draft Machine, facing the sleazily concocted South Beach Dark Empire, and the arrogant, dominant Chosen One who despite being one of the most heavily-scrutinized people on the face of the Earth, is still largely an enigma to us.
There's much to be said about this series, and clearly on many levels it promises to be a thrilling conclusion to one of the best NBA postseasons - hell, seasons - ever. Either the epitome of the successful small-market model or trendy superstar-hoarding will be validated with a championship, and Lebron or Durant will win his first ring. While this matchup figures to focus on its two stars, there's much more to it, so let's break it down...
(I'd like to officially note that I'm not buying any "Lebron Choked!" nonsense from last year's finals. I'm writing this under the assumption that he's mentally much stronger - which the only evidence we've seen all year points to - and we're in for a much more standard Lebron showing. Any attempt to dissect this further would be convoluted and unnecessary because nobody else knows what's going on inside Lebron James' head and can aptly assume if he's truly ready.)
The Westbrook Factor - If the WCF proved anything, it's that the Thunder are a much more dangerous team down the stretch of close games when Russ is in Mark Jackson mode and letting Durant handle the scoring. This has been painfully obvious for a couple of years now, but Westbrook finally seems to have gotten the hint himself, and the Thunder are in the Finals because of it. Their chances here hinge slightly on his ability to continue doing this, and to attack an often-exposed rim instead of settling for pullup jumpers. He's the perfect kind of player to put Dwyane Wade in foul trouble, but he's going to have to be selective and keep himself out of overdrive. When Westy dominates the ball and shot chart late, the Thunder suffer, and this series will be too close for them to give that up.
"The Other Guys" - Although what still might be Dwyane Wade's city is now home to Lebron James' basketball team, Wade will have to come up big consistently for Miami to take this home. He's thrown up several offensive disasters already these playoffs, punctuated by his continued facade as a three-point threat. Although this series figures to feature a lot more transition ball than we're used to in the playoffs - which definitely suits Wade and James - close games are sure to slow down in the clutch, and they'll have to be executing well off-the-ball, or else OKC's bigs can easily clog the lane if Miami tries to go 1-on-5, and we all saw how that went last year...
Likewise, this is a crucial series for Chris Bosh, not only in that has to consistently hit shots to keep Ibaka/Collison/whoever honest enough to stay away from Lebron/Wade penetration, but regardless of OKC's lineup, will spend a lot of time fighting against physical off-the-ball play he's been at times reluctant to face head-on. He's developed a "fake tough guy" label, certainly in the seldom-spoken mind of Kevin Durant, and will surely be targeted by the Thunder bigs on the glass.
The Extras from "The Other Guys" - If Miami's supporting cast sucks, they're screwed. It's as simple as that. They went to Game 7 against Boston with sporadic performances, and OKC's just a much better team. Shane Battier will have to be defensively brilliant when matched up with Durant. Joel Anthony will have to battle bigger, better players on the glass, and somehow also protect the rim. Mario Chalmers will have to play his best defense, hit shots when needed and exist within the flow of the offense. Mike Miller will have to channel his 2004 self. All of this will have to occur with relative perpetuity, or this series will not go to a Game 7.
Tempo Control - Obviously both of these teams can score easily and thrive in transition, but the Thunder possess an advantage in that they're also very dangerous in the halfcourt, while Miami's still kinda figuring that one out. If they can keep the pace relatively slow, take care of the ball, and prevent the long rebounds that will let the Heat get out on the break (this means you Russell), the flow should play out in their favor.
Protecting the House - While this is an obvious concern for Miami (no sense in beating a dead horse), it becomes a serious question for the Thunder. Serge Ibaka's proven to be the ultimate help defender when players are slowed down by Kendrick Perkins near the hoop, but without any legitimate post threats on Miami's roster, the temptation may be to go small and play fast, which, tying into the above point, would probably play into Miami's hands. Keeping Perkins in the game not only allows Ibaka to play a more natural role, but keeps the best rim-protection in the series around against Wade and James. This slows things down, forces more Heat jump-shooting, and gives them an indomitable edge on the glass. I hope Scott Brooks sees this.
Clutch City - Perhaps the Thunder's greatest advantage lies in Durant's consistent ability to deliver monster performances down the stretch of big games. He's an ace in the hole, a guy who has never shied away from taking or hitting, not only "the big shot", but many "big shots" in succession against good defenders. People can argue all day about Lebron's clutch ability; allow his past preferences to let an open teammate shoot rather than force up over double-coverage skew them into thinking he isn't very dangerous in the clutch (and much more matured and motivated than he was this time last year), but with Durant, we're seeing the definition of Clutch; potentially one of the best of all time. While Lebron is capable of taking over games in a multitude of ways, Durant's poison has still proven to be more lethal, and after how casually he made his decimation of San Antonio look, I fear for what might be in store for Miami. Regardless of how well they defend the perimeter, this guy can give anybody nightmares, and he doesn't even have to for them to win.
OKC's got depth, homecourt, and a couple matchup options to exploit even if Lebron and Wade come out in "Man On Fire" mode, which is why I see plenty of Seattle basketball fans sending angry Tweets at Clay Bennett while watching a Title Parade on TV in a couple weeks. Thunder in 6.
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