This was supposed to be a thrilling postseason: An all-out battle royale, with no de-facto favorite, poised to go down as the best spring of basketball us hoops junkies almost never had. Unfortunately, by the end of its first game, a rare Tom Thibodeau coaching blunder had rendered one Conference nearly obsolete for weeks, and left much of the focus where we'd grown accustomed to having it: The West.Fittingly, because emerging from that bracket are the two teams playing unquestionably the best ball right now; the two that many see hoisting the Larry O in the very near future. The Spurs and Thunder have taken two distinctly different paths to this Western Conference Final, and their convergence pits two different styles of basketball against each other: it's youth vs. experience, athleticism vs. IQ, momentum vs. discipline, star power vs. depth, Jedis vs. The Empire, you get the idea...
There's so many things going on that will make this series compelling: Not only are the Thunder vying to keep up with the ridiculously fast pace they've set for themselves by breaking through to the Finals, the Spurs are on the cusp of something truly inconceivable, threatening to win a fifth title in 13 seasons with Duncan/Pop, which in terms of longevity of dominance, is simply unmatched in modern-era team sports.
Beyond that, Kevin Durant and Tim Duncan are at very important crossroads in their respective legacies. This is bar none the most important series of Durant's career, and he has the right mix of talent and swagger to make this his moment now that his team's supposed to be the favorite. I say "supposed to" because, let's face it, San Antonio was nowhere near the Title picture a few months ago, and their presence here is the ultimate testament to Popovich and Duncan's brilliance (sure, Parker's been their best player this year, but make no mistake, Timmy D still leads this team). If Duncan cops the full fist of rings, it will only elevate his rank in the NBA's All-Time Pantheon (word to Bill Simmons), and truly render his status as the best power forward ever inarguable (if it isn't already).
On paper, this series figures to be a lot about the point guards, which is probably deceiving. Parker and Westbrook are two amazing players who are going to make huge contributions, but if you're expecting a duel between them to swing things, you're in for disappointment. Not only will their contributions likely come close to cancelling each other out in the run of things, but despite Westbrook's stubbornness and desire for revenge (after Tony dropped 42 on him), odds are they'll spend little time matched up. With other defensively-apt guards who probably match up better on D, it would make sense for both players to save energy (and fouls) not chasing the other around all series. Instead, look for the West Finals to be defined by:
Kevin Durant - OK, so this is kind of obvious. Not only is he the best player in this series, but the Spurs have absolutely no answer for him offensively. He can expect a Kawhi Leonard-led bevy of defensive schemes, and generally better team contention than he faced vs. LA. But what Durant needs to do in this series, is take the fuck over; channel his inner Kobe and unleash. San Antonio has depth on this team for days, and their true edge lies with KD. I fear for his inability to grab the wheel of what Westbrook will surely see as his own moment; they've come this far with things falling into place, but it might be time for Durant to put them there.
Tim Duncan - Timmy was kept fresh as possible for the playoffs through the unusually dense regular season, and it's showing. He's been awesome, and as intimidating as the Thunder's post D might be, Duncan's pretty much a nightmare matchup for them: a guy who's very comfortable posting up away from the hoop, with a complete arsenal of moves, and smart enough to pass out of Ibaka's lurking help coverage. If he can pick his spots when he's forced into the trenches and avoid getting Gasol'd like in last year's first round, Timmy could give OKC all kinds of problems.
James Harden's Beard - As brilliant as Harden's been this season (and really, on a historical level, you're talking Ginobili and McHale who've had better seasons in the 6thMOY's history) this will be his ultimate test, because his ability to quell San Antonio's depth might be the most important factor in this series. Even if Durant doesn't give them 30+ per, OKC can still win if Harden does what Harden does, and calmly counter-acts the Jax/Manu combo that Thabo Sefolosha just can't balance out both ways. There's really no reason to expect he won't, but like Durant, Harden's consistent brilliance might have to even find another gear the way the Spurs are playing right now, which brings us to....
Gregg Popovich - This man is a genius. It doesn't get highlighted enough, but any coach in the League right now is at an automatic disadvantage against him. He's quite comfortably the best X n O's guy in the NBA, and the united, unselfish mentality he imparts upon his players produces maximum on-court efficiency. There's a reason why the Spurs have excelled for so long with the same core in place and a revolving door of players around them; Pop finds the right talent, who will buy into their system, and constructs a near-flawless gameplan based on the skills in front of him. He will outsmart Scott Brooks at several points during every game of this series, and there's very little to be done about it. He's the Bill Belichick of basketball - only he doesn't cheat. And he gives the best post-game presser ever. I'd pay more money than I have to talk ball over beers with him for an hour, only I know there's no chance he could be bothered to.
The Pick & Roll - Both of these teams thrive on it; one of them defends it very well. OKC will be at a decided disadvantage with Ibaka defending high screens - despite his fearsome low-post presence, his quickness/orientation will be exposed in those sets, while the Spurs need only worry about Durant's length on switches (but when is Durant's length ever not an issue?) and Westbrook's explosiveness (again, pretty much unavoidable). If Ibaka spends too much time stranded on high screens, look for Nick Collison's minutes to spike, because you know San Antonio's going to be executing flawlessly.
The X-Factors - Benches: Critical in any series, but in this one more than most. The Spurs can go ten deep with capable scorers, and OKC well...can't. It's going to take not only an impressive effort from Harden to balance the scales, but airtight defense around the hoop. There's going to be a lot of onus on Collison to defend Duncan/Diaw, as Perkins is too slow for them, and Ibaka's too hyperactive. At the same time, all OKC's bigs are going to have to rotate well against arguably the best-passing corps of big men in the League, and be prepared for relentless attacking from Parker, and to a lesser extent Ginobili. Kawhi Leonard and Action Jackson are likewise going to have to defend Kevin Durant very well; he's long, he's quick, he's the best clutch scorer in the NBA (and it's not even close let's not kid ourselves) and the momentous dynasty-toppling wave he's riding right now has a Jordan-esque series written all over it if they're not top-notch.
All considered, there seems to be too much going San Antonio's way for me to bet against them. True, they haven't demolished opposition of a quality quite like OKC's so far this spring, but the Spurs aren't some untested, volatile squad that's going to lose its shit if they split at home. They're too composed, too deep, too thorough, to have the wheels come off in any significant way. The Thunder are certainly capable of pulling off what I can't really call an upset, but it seems like there's a few more ifs on their side of the equation. Regardless, this should be one hell of a good series, and I'm hoping for the potential of something memorable to deliver, so with my heart and my head: Spurs in 7.
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