Sunday, April 10, 2022

Banter's 2022 NBA Awards


This was a weird fucking NBA season. 

Even if you remove the COVID outbreak that had the league on the verge of a shutdown and rolling out G-League rosters for weeks during the Omicron wave, there was plenty of the unexpected afoot. 

For starters, the two preseason championship favorites both completely imploded for various reasons, with the Nets clinging for dear life to a play-in spot and the Lakers being eliminated entirely.

The early-season adjustments to the new ball and foul rules handcuffed some of the NBA's biggest stars and led to an insane run of Under hits for sports bettors before scoring exploded over the season's second half. 

Teams like the Cavaliers and Raptors came out of nowhere to make the Eastern Conference extremely competitive, while injuries to squads like the Clippers and Nuggets left voids in a normally very top-heavy West.

The Grizzlies somehow finished second in the league despite being a projected play-in team and their fringe MVP candidate missing 20+ games. The Timberwolves are in the thick of the playoff hunt and playing competent defense. The Clippers stayed afloat without either of their superstars for much of the season. The Hawks sucked. The Knicks sucked more. The Wizards were first in the East at one point this season. And, conversely, the Celtics staged one of the biggest mid-season turnarounds in NBA history. 

It's been a fun ride so far, and things should only get better over the coming weeks, with one of the most wide-open and compelling postseason scenarios that have been conjured up in quite some time.

But before we dive into the playoffs, let's take a quick moment to reflect on those that really showed out during the regular season, with the only column I ever seem to write on this blog anymore (you can catch my regular stuff over at Covers.com).

So, in a time-honored tradition, coming to you on tape-delay from a weed-filled basement in Halifax, Nova Scotia, it's Banter's 2022 NBA Awards. Envelopes please...

(All stats as of 4/8.)

Most Improved Player: Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies

Before we get to the awards that were actually a decision this year, let's get a couple out of the way that were absolute layups. 

The meaning of "most improved" can take on many connotations, but historically, the most impressive stride a player can make in the context of this award is The Leap into the stratosphere of a bonafide superstar. 

And Morant made that leap about as loudly as possible this year.

Ja's scoring shot up from 19.1 to 27.6 ppg, in what was, by far, his most efficient shooting season yet. He tacked on career-highs in rebounds, steals and blocks for good measure, averaging 25/5/5 for his third season, which basically doesn't happen unless you are historically good at basketball. Morant's usage rate shot up from 27.2 to 33.8%, while decreasing his turnover rate despite being one of the NBA's most targeted and ambitious playmakers.

Speaking of ambitious, Ja's relentless pursuit of highlights on both ends of the ball produced one of the best single-season mixtapes ever, on par with prime Vince Carter and Blake Griffin. His unique combination of boundless hops, crafty handle, third-eye vision, and sheer audacity leave Grizzlies viewers constantly unsure just what he might pull next.

And there's substance to the style. The Grizzlies were the NBA's second-best team this season, and Ja was a huge part of that (despite their much-ballyhooed success with him injured). Morant gave the Grizzlies a leader to rally behind — his fearlessness, unselfishness and indelible pride in repping for Memphis bled through the entire roster. This group loved playing together, which undoubtedly contributed to arguably the NBA's biggest team success story — and that started at the top.

Garland and Murray get our regards below, and they both had amazing seasons that would've held weight for serious contention in most fields. But Ja was everywhere this year and should be a landslide winner here.

Regards to: Darius Garland, Dejounte Murray

Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro, Miami Heat

This year's 6MOY was one of the easiest awards to decide in recent memory. Herro was the betting odds leader for this award from the very first week of the season. By December, he was an odds-on, meaning he was favored against the rest of the field. By the time most sportsbooks closed Sixth Man markets a couple weeks ago, Herro was listed at -20,000, meaning you would have to wager $20,000 to win $100 betting on him. 

This wasn't even an award race, it was a coronation. 

Herro averaged 20.7 points this season, leading qualifying bench players by over four points per, at a mark that has only been topped once by a qualifying bench player (Lou Williams, 21.9 in 2017-18) in the past 15 years. He kicked in regular huge contributions for the Heat, who were seemingly nursing some sort of key injury at every juncture this season.

But while Herro put up a season that would've wrapped Sixth Man anyway in what's usually a competitive field, nobody else really stepped up to the plate. 

Montrezl Harrell was beasting to start the season, then faded and was traded. Kelly Oubre Jr. got hot for like two weeks in December and plateaued hard after that. Kevin Love played relevant basketball again, but never seemed to get consistent minutes, even with Cleveland's endless onslaught of injuries. Reigning champ Jordan Clarkson's numbers tailed off from last year, as did teammate runner-up Joe Ingles' before suffering a devastating ACL tear.

In this weak of a field, Herro was untouchable off the bench and should win this award unanimously. 

Regards to: Nobody really.

All-Rookie Teams

First Team: Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Josh Giddey, Franz Wagner

Second Team: Ayo Dosunmu, Herbert Jones, Chris Duarte, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun

The First Team is mostly locks. There could be an argument made for Jones over Giddey or Wagner, and I can't fault someone who values Jones' health and defense over Giddey's early-season inefficiency and ultimate injury.

Dosunmu and Jones should be penned in for the Second Team, with the final spots between Duarte, Green, Sengun, Bones Hyland and Davion Mitchell. The latter two are close snubs, with Hyland ultimately not seeing enough floor time, and Mitchell's post-Kings-tank surge coming a bit too late. 

Rookie of the Year: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

This was not fun.

The margins between Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley are close. Like, really, really, sickeningly, I'm-having-sincere-anxiety-about-this-decision-close. Honestly, anyone who gives this award to Mobley: I have no quarrel with you. 

Their stats are painfully similar, even as fundamentally different players. Both averaged damn near 15/8 on 50% from the field with mirroring usage rates; Barnes averaged more steals and assists, Mobley more blocks and rebounds.

Both players posted strong advanced stats profiles for rookies, and again, there's very little to separate the two, but the broader scope begins to paint Scottie as the better overall rookie. While Mobley has a slight edge in RPM, Barnes has the better rating in PER, VORP and win shares, and in FiveThirtyEight's aptly-named RAPTOR metric, Barnes sits 66th while Mobley is almost comically slighted in 163rd. 

Mobley was an amazing defender for a rookie and will likely wind up a close call for the All-Defensive Second Team, but Barnes was also awesome on D, particularly down the stretch. The gap between them isn't as big as some people would have you think 

And while Mobley's brilliance was crucial to an injury-riddled team that over-achieved significantly this season, his narrative isn't too far off what Barnes achieved with Toronto, his surprise campaign every bit as integral to the Raptors' surprise-to-some success. 

Mobley's defense and intangibles are superior, but when so little separates these players and a broad scope of valuable metrics paint Barnes as the better player, having logged more games for what will end up as the better team, it's enough to make the trophy his. 

Regards to: Evan Mobley, Cade Cunningham


Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies

**stands behind COVID-style plastic barrier to avoid rancid vegetables being thrown by outraged readers claiming I'm a homer**

Okay, now that safety measures are in place. 

This award is always one of the toughest to decide, if not because of its arbitrariness then also because there are heaps of deserving candidates every year — this season was no different. 

But what Jenkins accomplished with the Grizzlies was a masterclass in NBA leadership, piloting a team that was supposed to compete for a lower-tier play-in spot to the second-best record in the NBA.

That in and of itself is enough of an overachievement to merit serious COY consideration, but how Jenkins did it was even more impressive. The Grizzlies were without Ja Morant — a borderline MVP candidate and shoe-in All-NBA selection — for 24 games, during which time they went 20-4. Often overlooked because the Grizzlies' depth is so ridiculous was that Dillon Brooks — the team's second-leading scorer and best perimeter defender — missed well over half of the season, too.

I get that the Suns were pretty close to unimpeachable, but their excellence wasn't really a this season thing. They made the fucking NBA Finals last year — we knew this team was really good. Memphis was far less of a sure thing, and its ability to lose a star without missing a beat — for longer and to better results than Phoenix did with Chris Paul — speaks to both Jenkins' creativity and consistency as a bench boss. 

Again, tough race, lots of deserving candidates. This hardly feels like a homer pick.

Regards to: Monty Williams, JB Bickerstaff, Tyronn Lue, Ime Udoka

All-Defensive Teams

First Team: G-Marcus Smart, G-Mikal Bridges, F-Giannis Antetkounmpo, F-Bam Adebayo, C- Rudy Gobert

Second Team: G-Jrue Holiday, G-Matisse Thybulle, F-Evan Mobley, F-Jaren Jackson Jr., C-Robert Williams III

Smart and Bridges are relatively easy selections as this season's two premiere perimeter ballhawks that saw the floor enough to contend here (sorry, Alex Caruso & Gary Payton II). Antetokounmpo is a no-brainer, and the only real knock against Adebayo is the six weeks he missed, which is tougher to dock a player for in a season where pretty much everyone missed time. We're sliding Adebayo into a forward spot, as he definitely belongs on the First Team, along with Gobert, who also missed time but can't be relegated. 

Thybulle gets the Second Team's first guard spot fairly easily, while Holiday still passes the eye test a bit better than snubs like Patrick Beverley (who's lost a half-step) and Fred VanVleet (who, despite being an apex irritant, simply isn't big enough to close out like Holiday can). JJJ would've had a First Team spot if he'd kept his post-December pace up for the season's first two months, and Williams was, by pretty much any metric, either first or second-best defensive center this year. The last spot goes to Mobley, a preternatural defender who somehow finished seventh in DRPM as a rookie, in a close call over Jarred Vanderbilt and Pascal Siakam.

Defensive Player of the Year: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

Full transparency: I'm writing my DPOY from an airport bar at 7am on my way to Cancun — if it seems like I mailed this one in a bit, that's why.

Another difficult award to decide, only this time it's because nobody really has an iron-clad case here. 

Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green spent the majority of this season trading blows as the two heavy favorites, but then both of them got hurt in late January, with their teams' defenses promptly going to shit as a result. While the effects only underscore the importance of these two dudes to their respective teams' resistances, Draymond ultimately missed too much time, while Utah's defense remained fairly bad even when Gobert returned. 

In their wakes, Marcus Smart and Bam Adebayo made late charges over season-long contenders Giannis Antetokounmpo and Mikal Bridges. While Smart and Bridges both pass the ye test with flying colors, metrics do little to support their case as the best defender on their own teams, let alone in the entire league. We can't lean purely on stats, especially in defensive realms, but they can help clear murky waters.

Antetokounmpo was his usual brilliant self, but Milwaukee's never been worse on defense in his prime, and stopped playing it entirely for a solid month in February-March before flipping the switch late in the season. 

That leaves us with Adebayo, who, despite missing close to six weeks with a thumb injury, was arguably both the most diverse and impactful defender in the league for a Top-5 defense that was arguably the league's best at full strength.

There's your DPOY. Now, back to my Caesar.

Regards to: Marcus Smart, Rudy Gobert

All-NBA Teams

First Team: G-Luka Doncic, G-Devin Booker, F- Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Joel Embiid, C-Nikola Jokic

Second Team: G-Ja Morant, G-DeMar DeRozan, F-Jayson Tatum, F-Kevin Durant, C-Karl-Anthony Towns

Third Team: G-Stephen Curry, G-Chris Paul, F-LeBron James, F-Pascal Siakam, C-Rudy Gobert

Joker, Embiid and Giannis were the three best players in the NBA this season — they all need to be on the First Team. You'll probably note that Embiid doesn't play forward. The league has made him and Jokic eligible at the position erroneously, as a loophole, because they know shoehorning us into position-specific voting that leaves one of the two best players on the Second Team is extremely ridiculous. 

Doncic was nuclear over the second half, and even his "slow start" was still an All-NBA-worthy effort. Booker gets the last First Team spot in a close call over Morant and DeRozan, with Ja missing a bit too much time and DeMar's Bulls semi-imploding in the second half. 

Thus, Morant and DeRozan slot in on the second team, easily joined, in my mind at least, by Tatum — who made yet another staggered leap in this season's second half and is now inarguably a Top-10 player. Durant should be here too; he missed a lot of time but was possibly still the best player around when healthy. And Towns not only delivered another steller offensive campaign, but his best on defense, which helped define Minnesota's success.

Curry was the MVP odds favorite early in the season, but then he had his worst shooting month in recent memory and, on the heels of that, got injured. He has to be docked, but not too much. Paul takes the last guard spot in a close call over Donovan Mitchell, Fred VanVleet and Trae Young, partly because he's still awesome and partly because Phoenix kinda needs a second guy here. They were that good. 

Siakam had the best season of his career and was a diverse threat on both sides of the ball, often playing out of position at center and unlocking the lineups Toronto thrived with. LeBron's here in spite of the Lakers being a total tire fire this season, because there's only so much you can blame a guy who averaged 30/8/6 on efficient shooting. Gobert takes the last spot in relatively close call over Bam Adebayo and Jarrett Allen.

Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Again, a really difficult award to decide. Joker and Embiid battled in an epic joust across the season's second half, with Giannis demanding inclusion in the discussion down the stretch.

And while Embiid and Freak had seasons that were nothing short of historic, Jokic, again, should stand alone on the MVP pedestal. 

The cliche argument for Jokic is also the most damning for everyone else: Basically every single catch-all advanced stat says he's the best player in the league. PER. Plus-Minus (both real and box). Win shares.VORP. RAPTOR. It doesn't matter where you look, Jokic's name tops the list. And while most metrics have inherent flaws and can present biases, when every single one of them points in the same direction, it's usually a sign. 

Jokic was a one-man army for a Nuggets squad that essentially was missing its second- and third-best players for the entire season. He dragged Denver's injury-riddled roster to competitive results night in and out, squeezing damn near 50 wins out of a team with no other 15+ ppg scorers, and raising his teammates' floors in ways even Embiid and Antetokounmpo couldn't claim.

Even on the most basic levels, Jokic's stats profile is just godly. 27/14/8 on .661 true shooting is absurdly efficient production, such that Jokic is going to set the single-season record for PER, besting Wilt Chamberlain's 1961-62 season when he averaged 244 points and 87 rebounds per game (Editor's Note: numbers possibly exaggerated).

And while many Jokic detractors point to his ostensible reputation as a leak on defense, the evidence they can pcall on is drying up. Jokic registered another season near the top of several key defensive metrics, including leading the NBA in both defensive win shares and DBPM while finishing Top 5 in defensive rating and sixth in DRPM. Joker was also tenth in the league in steals this season for good measure. I acknowledge that those numbers are kind to Jokic and he's not necessarily an All-Defensive candidate, but let's get over the fallacy that not being an elite rim protector makes him a bad defender. 

Another close call and painful choice, but Jokic feels like the right call here. And in a season that will hopefully be defined by another wide-open title chase, it's fitting to have the MVP rest fairly uncertain.

Regards to: Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo