2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 3: The Hardware

Now that I've crowed on about why your team's not going to beat the Warriors/Cavs for several thousand words, it's time to get to the real fun of Banter's NBA Season Previw - The Hardware.

(Premature) Envelopes Please!

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - JOEL EMBIID PHILADELPHIA 76ers

With teammate and #1 pick Ben Simmons gone for possibly the whole season, and Kris Dunn being brought on slightly slower than first thought, this could be Embiid's award to lose provided he can stay healthy. While pinning ROY on a guy who's missed two full seasons prior to his debut, the patience seems to have paid off with Embiid, who has been beyond impressive in a small sample.

Sternly reminding everyone why he was so hyped pre-injury, Embiid gets to compete against a pretty shallow class, with a number of likely impact-rookies - Dunn, Jaylen Brown, Domantas Sabonis, etc - stuck in competition for minutes. Embiid will have all the opportunity, he just needs to dodge some bad injury luck.

CONTENDERS: Kris Dunn, Marquese Chriss, Buddy Hield, Dario Saric


SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR - BRANDON KNIGHT, PHOENIX SUNS


Much as it pains me not to go with Z-Bo, newly-minted to Memphis' bench mob, I have to give Brandon Knight the benefit of the doubt here. There's just too much potential for him to beast weaker second units, and being able to see minutes at both guard spots alongside either of Phoenix's starters will give him ample opportunity to contribute.

Knight has lots going for him as a young, athletic and largely-overqualified sixth man on a free-flowing team whose backcourt is sure to buoy its offense. What's more, the biggest knock on Knight - his poor shooting -might be moot, since Jamal Crawford has won this award three times.

CONTENDERS: Zach Randolph, Evan Turner, Bismack Biyombo, Andre Iguodala, Enes Kanter, Jamal Crawford


COACH OF THE YEAR - QUIN SNYDER, UTAH JAZZ

COY is always kind of a crapshoot since it's often predicated on defying expectation and may have the most abstract criteria of any of the NBA's awards.

This year, like any, it could go a number of ways: Pop is always a contender, Brad Stevens may steer the Celts' ascent high enough to snare the honor, Tom Thibodeau will preside over a T-Wolves leap, and someone else will come out of nowhere like Dave Joerger and Terry Stotts did last year.

But Snyder might stand the best chance, with Utah's stock set to skyrocket up the West standings, likely crashing the 50-win barrier and possibly homecourt with a top-4 seed. Snyder's coaching chops have been put to the test through two injury-riddled seasons on the Jazz bench; if he's as good with a healthy lineup as he is with reserves, he'll be right in the thick of this race.

CONTENDERS: Brad Stevens, Gregg Popovich, Tom Thibodeau, Coach X


MOST IMPROVED PLAYER - MYLES TURNER, INDIANA PACERS

This might be easily said after Turner opened the season with a 30/16/2stl/4blk rampage, but this is sort of something I've seen coming; stashing him all last year in my fantasy keeper league, while happily making him the fourth round's first pick in my yearly.

Turner possesses uncanny movement for a player of his size and reach, and his range on offense makes him a nightmare to account for pretty much anywhere on the floor. Now that Indiana's starting center spot is unquestionably his, the consistent playing time and confidence boost should translate to multi-faceted improvement for a player with such a vast potential of elite skill sets.

CONTENDERS: D'Angelo Russell, Devin Booker, Victor Oladipo, Dennis Schroder, Clint Capela, 


DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - DRAYMOND GREEN, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

So it's pretty much accepted that Kawhi Leonard is the NBA's best defender. He sustains himself on swingmen's souls. But just like LeBron James has been the NBA's best player for the last decade and has only 4 MVPs to his name, best doesn't always equate to the award. I think Draymond ships it this year, for four reasons:

1. He's lost two of the closest voting races in DPOY history to Kawhi the past couple seasons.

2. He's going to have to exert himself far less on offense with Durant eating so many touches, and can devote even more effort to defensive destruction. Draymond will also be playing with a chip on his shoulder, as he knows he very possibly cost his team an NBA title, and is not the type to take that lightly.

3. Tim Duncan - the NBA's leader in defensive plus-minus last season - has now become repeat liability Pau Gasol. The Spurs' D is thus highly unlikely to crush the team rankings like they did last year, removing a proverbial feather from Leonard's cap.

4. As much as we hate to admit, there's definitely a "boredom bias" against awarding a multiple-repeat winner, at least among some voters. As close as it's been between these two, that could be enough to tilt things Green's way. Said bias is only going to be further shifted by what you're about to read below.

CONTENDERS: Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: KAWHI LEONARD, SAN ANTONIO SPURS


The pieces are all in place for this to happen for last year's runner-up. Timmy D's retirement means the Spurs are now unquestionably Kawhi's team, and he's a pretty consistent occasion-riser. A completely dominant defender across multiple positions, and one of the NBA's most efficient offensive weapons, he's likely to further benefit from a number of outside factors.

Curry and Durant will likely devour each other's odds of winning, LeBron will be on cruisiest of controls until April, and Westbrook and Harden's teams aren't going to be good enough for them to win unless they massively upend historical precedent. As such, Leonard may have just stepped into MVP status by default.

CONTENDERS: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant


EAST ALL-STARS
STARTERS: G-Kyle Lowry, G-Kyrie Irving, F- Jimmy Butler, F-LeBron James, F-Paul George

Not really a whole lot to think about here; these guys should be pretty clear-cut starters in a perfect world. In reality Melo will probably swerve into a starting spot, but unless the Knicks greatly exceed expectations it won't be in merit.

BENCH: G-John Wall, G-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul Millsap, F-Andre Drummond, F-Al Horford, WC-Demar DeRozan, WC-Isaiah Thomas 

Wall is an obvious pick, and could-be starter if the Wiz didn't suck.  The Bucks are going to be mediocre at best this year, but Antetokounmpo will be hard to ignore when he's flirting with triple-doubles nightly.  Isaiah Thomas also gets the nod for what should be a top-3 team, ditto for DeRozan.

Millsap can also punch his ticket; coming off a career year, his all-around game even more valuable to Atlanta with also-slotted Al Horford gone, whose Celtics could very much be a "Should Have Two All-Stars" team. Andre Drummond gets a slight nod over Carmelo Anthony, mostly because Detroit will be noticeably better than New York.

Snubs: Carmelo Anthony, Kemba Walker, Hassan Whiteside, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, Reggie Jackson, Serge Ibaka


WEST ALL STARS
STARTERS: G-Stephen Curry, G-Russell Westbrook, F-Kevin Durant, F-Kawhi Leonard,
F-Draymond Green

Picking between the Curry/Westbrook/Harden/Paul Mount Rushmore of backcourt awesomeness is like pulling teeth with no anesthetic; those spots can go any way. Leonard is a no-brainer at one frontcourt spot, while Durant and Green should both still rep for the Dubs if reality meets expectations.

BENCH: G-Chris Paul, G-James Harden, F-Blake Griffin, F-Anthony Davis, F-Karl-Anthony Towns, WC-Damian Lillard, WC-Marc Gasol
Harden and CP3 are automatic, Blake Griffin should be as well if he can avoid breaking his hand on someone's face. Karl-Anthony Towns has all kinds of momentum in his favor, and if the Wolves make a leap, he'll likely be here. As should Davis, with his annual Great Player/Awful Team challenge. Bad D and all, Lillard is still a must for one Wild Card spot, and a healthy Gasol is still an all-around beast for what should be a top-5 team.

Lots more depth of top-tier talent here obviously, with Cousins and Aldridge both serious threats to Gasol's spot. Cousins would have pretty safe odds if the Kings weren't in complete disarray, while Aldridge is in limbo and might not even be on the Spurs by midseason.

Snubs: DeMarcus Cousins, LaMarcus Aldridge, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward, Mike Conley, Eric Bledsoe, DeAndre Jordan, CJ McCollum, Derrick Favors, Dirk Nowitzki 


ALL-NBA TEAMS

FIRST: G-Russell Westbrook, G-James Harden, F-LeBron James, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Anthony Davis

SECOND: G-Stephen Curry, G-Chris Paul, F-Kevin Durant, F-Paul George, C- Karl-Anthony Towns

THIRD: G-Kyle Lowry, G-Damian Lillard, F-Draymond Green, F-Paul Millsap, C-DeAndre Jordan

Now comes the fun part: Seeing how wrong I am.

Enjoy the season everyone!

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 2: The West

With the East Preview of out the way, it's time to shift scenery over the Wild Wild West, which, in contrast to its reputation, doesn't look all that wild anymore.

Time was, the entire conference was a stacked bloodbath of potential contenders, with upset potential throughout the playoffs. Now the West's depth has withered like a sun-dried tomato, leaving few established threats and a very distinct caste hierarchy:

The Warriors are unquestionably the conference's best team. Only the Spurs and Clippers have any hope of nabbing the 2nd seed, and beneath them just the Jazz, Grizzlies and Blazers project safely as playoff teams. After that, it's a murky quagmire of on-the-fly rebuilds, precocious upstarts, and identity crises.

While the West's bottom-feeders still have marginally brighter collective futures than their East counterparts, the parity between conferences seems to be inching back towards an equilibrium. How does it all stack up? Let's dive in:

LOTTERY LOCKS:

15. Los Angeles Lakers

After a few years of wayward purgatory at the end of Kobe's career, the Lakers can at least begin to steer themselves in the right direction. While they're free of Bryant's lifetime achievement salary and have a potential future core in the Russell-Ingram-Randle triad, they're still at least a season away from beginning their ascent.

In the meantime they're at least decent fodder for jokes about Timofey Mozgov's contract, the Russell/Nick Young dynamic, and how long it will take Luol Deng to regret signing here.

14. Sacramento Kings
xTo nobody's surprise, the Kings are yet again a mess heading into this year. Instead of building around All-Star DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento seems more likely to trade him, with 1/3 of their roster now centers, and Cousins in near-constant malaise when the franchise does dumb shit like this, and this.

Even with Boogie, the Kings are likely lotto-fodder, but with both he and Rudy Gay swirling around in trade rumors, there could be a total bottom-out on the way in Sac-Town. Hopefully they use the upcoming lottery pick more wisely.

12. New Orleans Pelicans
xNot a wicked franchise arc for the Pels right now. Their pseudo-attempt at Win Now Mode topped out at the 8-seed, and now they're left with an ambiguous bottom-rung roster.

Anthony Davis is obviously awesome, but becoming somewhat of a lock to miss ~15 games every year. Jrue Holiday's indefinite absence leaves their point guard situation (an E'Twaun Moore/Norris Cole/Langston Galloway smorgasbord) in heavy flux. The Pels employ three terrible centers, are relying on a few guys literally playing for their careers, and have the Solomon Hill contract to answer for. Don't expect it to happen this year.

13. Phoenix Suns

The Suns' backcourt is pretty stacked. Shifting Brandon Knight to the bench is a natural adjustment that will allow him to see minutes at both guard spots against bench units he'll completely torch.

The frontcourt however remains a mystery, but has breakout potential. Alex Len's infuriating inconsistency should benefit from a year of health, while Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss look like impact rookies. Either way there will be growing pains, and not much stock in a playoff run for another season at least.

11. Denver Nuggets

Denver's a tough team to peg this year. Heavy on mid-level assets, they've been involved in rumored blockbusters for years, but have never managed to work out a deal for a star with their myriad Kenneth Faried packages.

That could change this year, with Jusuf Nurkic very expendable, up-and-comers Will Barton and Gary Harris showing out (with lotto pick Jamal Murray waiting in the wings), and Danilo Gallinari coming off a career year if a Denver finds someone willing to gamble on his health. Really their only untouchable is Nikola Jokic, which leaves them open to many possibilities.

This roster could look very different even a couple months from now, but even as constructed, they have a balanced attack of good-to-elite shooters surrounding one of the league's best young big men. They project as a below-average defensive unit (hence why they're here) but Denver should be at worst a fun League Pass watch.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

10. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs' long string of shitty free agency luck kept spooling this summer when they settled for maxing out Harrison Barnes in perhaps the summer's most  egregious money-bonfire. Swiping Andrew Bogut from the Warriors' Durant Sale was a pleasant surprise (marking the first time the Mavs' summer center plans didn't get fucked over), but likely won't be enough to keep their playoff streak alive.

The Mavs have depth issues across the board, and will be able to rely less and less on Dirk Nowitzki's German-engineered longevity. Their fate lies in the hands of several past-their-prime guys most of whom have spotty health records. Unless Harrison Barnes is worth every dollar (and the safe bet is that he isn't), Dallas will be facing a transition very soon.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

Welcome to Team Next. Now show-run by an elite basketball mind, and with the NBA's best stable of young talent, the Wolves are primed for a major leap this year.

Having Tom Thibodeau calling the shots instead of glorified assistant Sam Mitchell will mean all the difference in the World, especially to a young troupe of athletic legs with lots to learn and stamina to keep up with Thibs' rigor.

Most of their roster has upside to realize, Karl-Anthony Towns is an MVP-in-waiting, and Kris Dunn looks like arguably this year's most impactful rookie. Even just natural growth and continuity would hugely benefit these guys, but such a significant coaching upgrade will be like an HGH boost. They're doubtful to actually crack the playoffs, but don't expect them to be far off.

8. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are going to be an awesome League Pass team this year. Mike D'Antoni and a noticeable shooting upgrade are going to usher in a new era of high-paced :07 Seconds or Less offensive artistry.

Houston will rack up points, which is good, because they couldn't defend a parked Vespa. They have leaks everywhere on D, starting two minus defenders (Nene, Eric Gordon) and two abhorrently bad ones (Ryan Anderson, and perennial YouTube legend James Harden). With all the easy paths to the hoop, their only rim protector (Clint Capela) has awareness and positioning issues. Plus their best defender (Patrick Beverly) is missing the season's first 6 weeks.

Harden's new purely-cosmetic point guard designation will be plentiful with so much spacing around him, but Anderson, Gordon and Trevor Ariza aren't spreed demons; teams with long, switchable perimeter D (and there's more of them every year) could force turnovers and contested shots easily.

7. Oklahoma City Thunder

So ya, Kevin Durant's obviously gone. That sucks. But Russell Westbrook didn't bolt, and he's about to put on a Man On Fire act unlike any we've seen. That alone should carry OKC to the playoffs, in a West middle tier that suddenly isn't as fearsome anymore.

While Westbrook is one-man instant offense, the Thunder's spacing looks very weird, with little outside shooting and a Kanter/Adams post combo with maybe 6-8 feet of range. OKC is also depressingly thin at the 3 and 4, making Durant's absence all the more noticeable. Vic Oladipo will benefit nicely from Westbrook sucking defenses in like a Dyson - routinely creating open looks than he ever would've had in Orlando - but the Thunder are one of the NBA's ideal lane-clogging targets for opposing D.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES:

6. Portland Trailblazers

Portland shocked the NBA last year with an unlikely ascent into the West playoffs after losing five of their six best players over the summer of 2015. While there's no denying they blew away expectations as a team, the Blazers' results definitely benefited from several teams (namely the two that follow here) dealing with perpetual roster-wide injury. Thus, while they're a better team on paper, they'll have a tough time holding their footing.

That said, the Blazers have lots of potential upside to realize in their weirdly-effective frontcourt, and a more physical, athletic presence after committing grand larceny with the Festus Ezeli deal. Evan Turner is perhaps the NBA's best Swiss Army Knife 6th Man, and should thrive in an identical role and similar system to his Boston gig. Slotting Portland here kinda has to be done, but feels very much like their floor, especially if Allen Crabbe's worth anywhere even in the same area code as his new contract.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

RIP Grit N Grind. With Chandler Parsons' acquisition and Zach Randolph's bench demotion, the Grizz have finally drank the potion and zagged with most of the NBA into a space-and-pace system. Parsons, when healthy, is precisely the kind of player the Grizzlies have longed for, but the "when healthy" part highlights a major concern for Memphis.

As much as Randolph and Tony Allen are still cornerstones of the Grizzlies' culture and identity, their on-court makeup rests heavily on Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Parsons, all of whom are coming off serious injuries with unclear long-term implications. It's supremely unlikely Memphis' roster is hit as hard by injury as last year, but a fully healthy season would be a pleasant surprise.

4. Utah Jazz

The Jazz have "leap" written all over them this year. Where to start? First off they have a stable
chocked full of young talent, any of whom could take large personal strides.

They also now start an average point guard, which would seem like a ho-hum statement if Utah's PG situation wasn't perhaps the single most deficient position in the NBA last year. As a bonus, they return Dante Exum from injury, embarking on one of the league's more intriguing dice-rolls at backup.

Utah, like Memphis, were also hit hard by injuries last year. While Gordon Hayward hasn't gotten them off to a great start they're even less likely than the Grizz to see such misfortune repeat itself. With fewer lineup shifts, Utah's young core will benefit from continuity and collective growth. They also made a couple great on-the-low offseason signings in Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, who provide veteran presence and are still capable on-court contributors.

Add it all up and it's hard to see Utah not leaping at least several spots up this season's West standings.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

One of the NBA's most frustrating teams, the Clippers seem stubbornly bent on maxing out as a 3-seed and getting knocked out in the 2nd round every year. They have the pieces - one of the NBA's best Big-3s surrounded by a passable 2-way supporting cast and coached by one of the best - but the health, stamina, focus and overall desire are all question marks.

You pretty much know what you're getting with this virtually-unchanged roster. If they can string together a healthy season from both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, they could challenge San Antonio for the 2-seed, but overall their potential range is very narrow. Only a serious injury will drop them out the West's top-3, and only a miracle will get them past the Spurs or Warriors in the spring.

2. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs without Tim Duncan is going to be weird; like a peanut butter sandwich without the jam, Meth without Red, or Dany Targaryen without dragons. As the Spurs shift into a new era, they've found themselves a decent placeholder at center in Pau Gasol (albeit one who's far worse defensively).

There are several questions surrounding the Spurs' season, including how much Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have left in the tank, the prospects of trading LaMarcus Aldridge, and how severe Pop's separation anxiety from Duncan will be.

Regardless, the Spurs set a franchise record for wins last year with Duncan in a cameo role, and rock by far the league's most stable system and pedigree. They're as safe a bet for the West's #2 seed as any team in any spot league-wide.

1. Golden State Warriors 
They won 73 games last year, then got Kevin Durant. What else do you want.

Stay tuned for Part 3: The Hardware, dropping any day now....

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 1: The East

Ah, October.

The air is crisply cooling, the leaves are going all Bob Ross, pumpkins are being carved, pumpkin pie is being served, and everything else is pumpkin spiced. Most importantly, the struggle through baseball, golf and televised darts felt by NBA fans is on its last whimper.

After a historic offseason, we've been left with what seems like a foregone conclusion: the Warriors and Cavaliers will meet again in the Finals, with the Dubs looking unbeatable if healthy.

But between now and an inevitable ending, a very dynamic and delicate power struggle will play out among the NBA's middle tier. Venture far out of either conference's top-3 and the pecking order is very unclear. With so much player movement this summer, not only are some variables unknown, but the resulting margins slim - playoff spots should be a dogfight in both conferences.

Speaking of conferences, let's jump into a breakdown of each in Part 1 of Banter's 100% Guaranteed, Flawlessly Hypothesized NBA Preview; starting with the East:

LOTTERY LOCKS: 


15. Brooklyn Nets
As laughable as this roster is, it's still similarly talented on paper to a Simmons-less Sixers, and certainly more experienced. That said, they have far less upside and no means whatsoever to better themselves mid-season.

It's going to be a close race for the bottom between the two. If only Brooklyn had any incentive to be bad; forking over their next two first-round picks, both sure bets for the Top-5.

14. Philadelphia 76ers

The Ben Simmons injury hurts a lot. He was a Sixers rookie, so odds are it was happening, but it's a swift kick in the head to Philly's momentum. It also doesn't bode well for #TheProcess that their likely three best players are all centers.

Philly will now have to scrap either way to escape their token role as the NBA's Worst, but a seemingly inevitable trade of either Noel or Jahlil Okafor could put Philly in a better position to weather Simmons' loss and actually make sense as a basketball team.

13. Miami Heat
xThe bigger they come the harder they fall. By LeBron's count, Miami should still be defending an NBA championship; instead they find themselves unexpectedly thrust into a rebuild.

Losing both Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh signals a new era for the Heat, and knocks them down to the East basement where tanking is a very real possibility. They lack consistent scoring outside of Goran Dragic; relying on increased roles from a Josh Richardson/Hassan Whiteside/Dion Waiters/Derrick Williams quartet that cumulatively went for a whopping 35 ppg last year.

Even if Tyler Johnson lives up to his comical new contract, it's hard to see them winning any more than 30 games. Miami might be better off punting with their sights on 2017's plentiful Draft Class.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

12. Charlotte Hornets

Last season the Hornets re-discovered themselves, playing at a top-10 pace with a balanced and varied scoring attack. After losing three key cogs, Charlotte will have to lean much more heavily on Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum to put the ball in the basket.

While the defensive versatility of the Batum/Marvin Williams/Michael Kidd-Gilchrist trifecta gives the Hornets lots of options and a long presence on the perimeter, MKG's sub-par shooting will only further serve to constrict the offense, and subsidize double-teams of Walker drives.

Charlotte could potentially create headaches on D for certain small-ball lineups, but overall have lost enough scoring punch to suggest a regression back to the lottery.

11. Orlando Magic

So much nonsense going on here. Deal-happy Magic GM Rob Hennigan might be executing a thinly-veiled asset horde, but their awkward glut of big men serves to stymie both trade value and their progress as a basketball team.

So much of this bizarre experiment hinges on Aaron Gordon's transition to "small forward" (if positions still exist). While Gordon gives them a wide athletic framework within which to work, it's nearly impossible to see all of Orlando's bigs fitting into the rotation without marginalizing each other to some extent.

Rumors abound suggest that Nikola Vucevic may be on the trading block, but the market for a center who offers no rim protection and can't quite hit 3s might be dry. A forthcoming deal may help this team find an identity; as of right now it's nebulous at best.

10. Milwaukee Bucks 

Losing Khris Middleton for possibly the entire year hits the Bucks like a Ford Expedition, especially in terms of their spacing-challenged offense. Relics Jason Terry and Steve Novak might be forced into bigger roles out of pure necessity.

Milwaukee seems bent on replicating the Thunder's recently-dismantled Long Ball blueprint, and while all their limbs project as a strong defensive unit, they really couldn't afford to lose their best shooter.

The Bucks' best hopes of salvaging this season come in trading Greg Monroe, who's on a great deal and would fit better on just about any other team. They could fetch a badly-needed perimeter threat and open up the starting center spot for John Henson, one of the NBA's most comically-underused players.

9. Washington Wizards

Maxing out Bradley Beal was a gamble the Wizards had to take after completely fanning on the Kevin Durant Sweepstakes, especially in this summer's apocalyptic Free Agency market. That said, it pins a lot of resources on a player who's missed a quarter of his NBA career so far, while spending another third of it playing through or recovering from injury. At full health, Beal is a borderline All-Star, but our glimpses of it have been fleeting.

John Wall is obviously a franchise building block, but his greatest weakness - his shooting - is only exacerbated without Beal flanking him. In fact most of Washington's roster, like several other lower-rung East teams, seems bereft of en-vogue floor-spacing, unless the petulant Markieff Morris is suddenly becoming an offensive centerpiece.

8. Chicago Bulls 

A peculiar and lateral offseason for "Da Bulls". They traded Derrick Rose, presumably aware that he was ball-stopping Jimmy Butler and clogging their already-shaky spacing with his awful outside shooting.

Now with Robin Lopez as insurance for the imminently-departing Pau Gasol, the Bulls needed to get Butler some help on offense. They thus proceeded to sign not one, but two high-cost players who - maddeningly similar to Rose - will keep the ball out of Butler's hands and do little-to-nothing to space the floor.

It's unclear if this ill-advised hodgepodge of perimeter talent qualifies as a Big 3, but if so the Butler-Wade-Rondo trio is probably the most dysfunctional ever.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES: 


7. New York Knicks
The Knicks made progress this summer. There's no two ways about it; they'll be a better basketball team in 2016-17. But the pidgeon-steps they took towards contention with Melo's window dwindling are far from flattering for Phil Jackson's third offseason. Going almost-all-in on Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah is a serious gamble; the Knicks will be lucky to get a healthy season out of both, never mind their pre-injury selves.

Brandon Jennings will be a welcome addition to their scoring-bound bench, but behind him it's dental floss-thin. Meanwhile Kristaps Porzingis (he of the Latvian rap video) is the team's only significant realizable upside, and his development risks being stymied while Rose and Carmelo Anthony dominate the ball. Their ceiling seems fairly capped even at perfect health - which is far from guaranteed.

6. Atlanta Hawks  

The Hawks aren't in that bad shape for a team that lost two of its three best players over the summer, but maintaining their mid-level playoff spot will depend on several variables:

- that Dennis Schroder will make a leap from stud backup to above-average starter (possible)
- that Kent Bazemore's worth all the money they just gave him (probable)
- and that the Dwight Howard signing won't go up in flames (anyone's guess)

Howard certainly renders Atlanta more combustible than they've been since the Josh Smith era, and poses difficulties for Coach Bud's fluid offense if unwilling to seriously adjust. Paul Millsap is a beast, but there's only so much he can do to keep ATL's system together as the team around him gradually erodes.

5. Detroit Pistons 

Losing Reggie Jackson for the first month-plus of the season blows for a team that many are picking to rise to the top of the East's clusterfucked middle tier. Ish Smith is far from a bad replacement (he'll be great for Andre Drummond on the pick-n-roll), but that stretches an already-thin backcourt bench further.

Their sans-Jackson schedule isn't overly hard, but Tobias Harris is unproven as a primary scorer, and openings for 3's from KCP and Marcus Morris won't be as wide or frequent without Jackson's slashing.

But once Jackson returns, they field a fearsome starting five, well equipped for the space-and-pace offense Stan Van Gundy's so fond of. Not to mention they have Boban.

THE BRIDESMAIDS:

4. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers might've taken a step back defensively with their summer makeover, but the gains on offense - an area which has plagued Indiana for several seasons - are considerable. With a new scoring-friendly coach in the driver's seat, Indiana now has threats from every position to surround Paul George, who seemed like a one-man army at times last year.

Plus it's not like they're suddenly awful on D now. They only have leaks in a couple spots (#MontaEllis), Paul George is still a multi-positional defensive monster, and Myles Turner will become a truly elite rim protector as his IQ and positioning develop.

The net result of the Pacers' shift in philosophy may be a moot point overall. They're much deeper and more talented than last year's iteration, which is why they've returned to the East's upper tier.

3. Toronto Raptors

At first glance it seems like the Raptors had a blah offseason aside from the somewhat-likely Demar DeRozan re-up. Losing breakout Bismack Biyombo while some of their direct competition re-tooled heavily isn't a great start.

But the Jared Sullinger acquisition is large for a rotation that saw Luis Scola log heavy minutes last year. The Raptors now can time-share between two competent, multi-skilled fours without feeding Scola's corpse to opposing athletes.

The Six's summer also saw their All-Star backcourt win Olympic gold medals, an experience whose impact has translated dramatically to the NBA for a number of players. It's not irrational to expect some net positive effect after a summer of playing/training with a handful of the World's truly elite, and - more importantly - getting the best coaching Lowry or DeRozan have ever had. At the absolute least, Toronto's two most important pieces are riding a wave of confidence after inconsistent postseasons.

DeMarre Carroll missed a big chunk of last year and will certainly have a two-way impact, while any development from stashes Bruno Caboclo or Lucas Nogueira would only be icing on the cake. The East's top four will be tougher this year, but the Raps won't be helpless to defend themselves.

2. Boston Celtics

It can't be underscored how huge the Al Horford signing is for a team that hoarded assets in search of a star, then had one dropped in their lap, at their shallowest position no less. Horford would've fit well just about anywhere, but especially so in Boston, who retain their disposable youth and Rolodex of draft picks for the next move.

With lots of available talent, and now two All-Stars to beckon potential trade targets, the odds of Danny Ainge pulling the trigger on a blockbuster aren't bad, raising the Celtics' projected ceiling. But even at present they're probably the East's 2nd-best team, with depth at every position behind a sneaky-good starting lineup.

Losing alpha sixth-man Evan Turner hurts a varied roster like Boston's a lot less, especially given his price tag. Brad Stevens has an absurd knack for maximizing his talent's effectiveness, so he'll find innovative ways to replace Turner's production and continue the Celts' ascent.

HOMECOURT GOES TO:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers This just is happening. Long live JR Smith.

Stay tuned for Part 2: The West, and Part 3: The Hardware, coming soon to a smartphone screen near you...