Few things are certain in life. Death, taxes, the changing of the seasons, and the Toronto Raptors sucking are pretty much the only things we can count on for sure. In every other situation, life's wild variance pitches us an extensive range of possibilities that provide excitement, uncertainty, and the unavoidable gamble. This applies to the chase for the 2011 NBA title; while the Lakers have established themselves as prohibitive favorites, the contenders have been up and down all year, and several teams from both conferences think think they can bring the two-time champs down. The contender debate has as many sides to it as we've seen in recent memory, but as we close in on the postseason, here's Banter's official 2011 Championship Gambling Guide:
Dead Money - Putting any kind of bet on these teams winning the title would be like setting money on fire - only setting money on fire wouldn't get your hopes up, waste your time or make you look quite as stupid:
Denver Nuggets - After getting beyond the soap opera that consumed most of their season, this might be one of the best cores of young talent in the NBA going forward. They have depth at multiple positions, an enviable glut of athletic swingmen, some decent contracts, and one of the league's best coaches. That being said, right now, despite their huge wave of momentum, they're a slightly-mismatched bunch who were just thrown together, lack any playoff experience, and don't have a takeover player who can win them tough games down the stretch. If they go in the first round, count me unsurprised.
New York Knicks - This time last month, there was much buzz in the Big Apple; ambitious fans and media gawking about Amar'e and Melo scaring the East's elite in the playoffs. Optimism faded quickly when the team went into a complete nosedive before last night's gutsy win against Orlando, in which Anthony completely destroyed a helpless Hedo Turkoglu (see below) in the second half. While New York is 7-4 against winning teams since Melo and Chancey arrived, they gutted their roster and are a few quality pieces away from contention.
Orlando Magic - Dwight Howard is an awesome player, by far the L's best defender, if it weren't for Derrick Rose, maybe an MVP. What surrounds him is a bunch of players who, on rare occasion, are all clicking together and can run with anybody. Most nights, they are too inconsistent on offense and too inept on defense to suggest they'll go deep this year. Howard gets hung out to dry too many times; racking up fouls on help D after (insert name of shitty Magic perimeter defender) got beat. This will cause massive problems for them in the second round, where their season's likely to end.
In the Money: With the pretenders out of the way, we can dive into the teams that could actually, legitimately, maybe win a championship this year. Starting with the long shots (for all you reckless degens), and working up to the odds-on favorite, here's a look at what kind of bets you might want to be taking:
Oklahoma City Thunder - I was considering lumping them in with the pretenders until they pulled off the Perkins deal and look very scary. Their youth in mind, they showed last year that they can overperform on a big stage, and now have the best post D combo in the West, along with James Harden's sudden channeling of Michael Finley circa 2000, to complement the MVP-caliber duo of Westbrook and Durant. They now officially look like a team that could make noise, with upside to spare. Said upside, of course, if what's separating them from looking like a serious contender. They're still very young and untested by playoff rigors; don't forget how Durant crumbled against LA last year. They could make a run, but place bets with caution and a heavy dose of optimism.
Odds: 9.5-1
Boston Celtics - The Celts looked like they could win it all; on cruise control despite a horribly unhealthy lineup, depth, experience, poise, and a thirst for revenge after how close they came last June. Then Danny Ainge mis-stepped and traded one of his team's core competencies (a solid defensive anchor/answer for Dwight Howard) in a dice roll that really hasn't been panning out. The Celts look just awful, and Rajon Rondo's nagging finger injuries have seen their best player playing inconsistently while his team copes with a new identity. Chicago and Miami are streaking on easy schedules to higher seeds, while the once-favored Celts' chances of even making it out of the East look grim right now.
Odds: 8-1
Dallas Mavericks - This isn't your older Mavs. They're a lot tougher defensively (especially if they get Caron Butler back) and can comfortably slow down in the halfcourt; by definition more suited to playoff ball. Despite Cuban's storied history of assembling postseason bombs, this team looks tougher and has a number of guys who can get buckets if Dirk has one of his patented (play)off-nights. Peja was added for nothing, Barea's been hot, and Butler's a potential 20-point scorer when healthy. On paper, they look very tough. But on the court they arouse doubt for several reasons; to name a few: Jason Kidd's a phenomenal playmaker, but he's also one of the worst on-the-ball defenders in the NBA and his lack of lateral movement gets exploited every spring. Dirk Nowitzki's an incredible scorer who drags big men far out of their comfort zone, but he also routinely disappears from big games and isn't a much better defender than Kidd. they give up way too much size whenever Beaubois or Barea are at the two (which they often are). Their biggest scoring threat in the post is (no kidding) Brendan Haywood. This is a team that can be very dangerous when playing optimally, which they displayed impressively early in the season, but have had a tough time keeping up with...and lost to the Lakers by 30 last week.
Odds: 6.9-1
San Antonio Spurs - Well, it hit. That wave of injuries that everyone kept eerily suspecting was going to hit the Spurs finally did, and couldn't have come at a worse time, or to two more crucial players. Suddenly, San Antonio's limping into the playoffs with yellow flags everywhere. They looked sat comfortably atop the West all season, and in very un-Spur-like fashion, are crumbling down the stretch and are in danger of losing their 1-seed. Any kind of bet made on the Spurs requires a steadfast belief in the ability of Manu, Tony and Timmy D to handle heavy minutes and the pounding of a more physical playoff game. It's never smart to count the Spurs out, but with all three of their stars playing hurt, they're not the team that coasted all year.
Odds: 5.6-1
Chicago Bulls - What Chicago did to the Eastern Conference this season was similar to Marlo's uprising in The Wire's 3rd season; he came out nowhere and rolled up on an unsuspecting crew who thought they had it made, establishing himself as the man. But his meteoric rise inspired envy and suspicion; the kind that put targets on him from multiple hunters and ultimately brought down his empire. The Bulls look very strong; Derrick Rose is as unguardable as anyone in the league, and he leads a team whose entire rotation has been playing above expectation. It's very hard to find flaws in a roster that's likely wrapped the East's top seed despite early injuries to two stars; they rebound and defend extremely well, have multiple scorers from all areas, can transition between halfcourt and uptempo better than most, and even have a COY candidate (and not the Sam Mitchell kind, the kind that was courted by every team with a coaching vacancy last summer because everyone knows he knows his shit) at the helm. Their lack of experience may hurt them in later rounds, but they look as strong as anyone in the East.
Odds: 4.2-1
Miami Heat - It feels weird having them up this high given all the questions they've yet to answer, but after Boston shot themselves in the leg and Father Time caught up with the Spurs, it's hard to see them not being serious contenders with Wade and James in beast mode. Their depth issues aside, the playoffs will be more and more about the Big 3, especially LeWade, who are both capable of winning a game on their own. If Chris Bosh can learn to play outside of his comfort zone for the team's sake, and Miami can still control tempo and create transition buckets, it will go a long way towards masking just how shallow this team is. Udonis Haslem's rumored resurrection is wishful thinking, but would be a Godsend to a team that was already blessed with the aftermath of Danny Ainge's stupidity, and will need even more good fortune to beat these next guys...
Odds: 4-1 (a slight edge over Chi-Town, only because I have an uneasy feeling that all the boos have obviously jaded Lebron and he's about to unleash some completely ruthless Taken-style rampage on the rest of the NBA)
Los Angeles Lakers
Life in the NBA's Penthouse has been somewhat turbulent this year, but through the requisite Bynum injuries, Gasol complaining about anything, and general Artest insanity, the Lakers have brought it all together down the stretch, are fully healthy for the first time all year, and playing the best ball of anyone in the NBA. Regardless of their occasional regular-season lapses, the Zen Master will have them playing optimal basketball over the next few months, and with their obvious experience, depth, and the most mismatch-safe lineup in the league (with plenty of room to exploit their own), it could be very tough for any of the cloudy contenders to dethrone them. Subplot of the postseason: Kobe's chase for a sixth title: How much will finally tying Jordan (he cares about it, don't believe him. Anybody who was that unfairly and incessantly measured against greatness his entire career would love to finally, in some way, match it...And Kobe's a shitty liar) amp up his game? Will it be a positive or negative force for LA? How many games in does Pau start whining about how his usage rate has dipped 3% below his regular season average? Should be a great postseason...
Odds: 2.2-1
