Monday, February 2, 2009

The Tipping Point

Disappointment's been contagious this year. As the All-Star Break inches closer and the 2008-09 NBA season takes a firmer form, there's plenty of teams that are far from where they envisioned themselves before the season, and losing precious time to regain ground. While some squads are so screwed that major personnel changes and minor miracles are their only hope at redemption, others find themselves still in the mix, with the possibility of salvaging this season. Here's a look at a few teams who are stuck up shit's creek (giving a pass to injury-crippled Utah, the rejuvenated 76ers and the Pistons, who should've simply just kept Chauncey) and where they might want to look for a paddle:

Washington Wizards
The Wiz had dreams of contending in the East this season; dreams that have crashed and burned, leaving injury-plagued Washington lying in the smoldering ashes of league's worst record...inexplicably with the same roster that got them to the 5th seed last spring. While having their best player and starting center relegated to the sideline all season has been a primary cause, the answer might lie there as well. Brendan Haywood's injury has given rise to young stud Andray Blatche, who is still raw but has shown considerable progress since being drafted out of high school. Just 22, he's far from his ceiling and should become more consistent with more experience and maturity. Meanwhile, Gilbert Arenas is indicating he might not suit up at all this year, after just 13 appearances in 07-08. He's still revered as one of the deadliest scorers in the league, but has been the league's highest-paid cheerleader for almost two seasons, and had many heads saying last season that the Wizards were playing better without him. Dealing their walking wounded might be a good way for Washington to shake up a rotation that's never gotten them out of the first round; one that badly needs a fresh start.

Toronto Raptors
Another team that once thought they could run with the East's best, the Raptors have been rudely awakened to the reality that they're still soft, shoot too many jumpers, and have a weak killer instinct that belies their name. Needless to say that Jermaine O'Neal's presence on the low block hasn't opened up the court for more wing penetration and Chris Bosh high-post domination like they'd hoped, and now sit further out of the playoff picture than they've been in years. Trading O'Neal might be premature, especially for Shawn Marion (as rumored), a guy who doesn't address the team's immediate needs and will likely walk in July. This season might be a lost cause if Toronto can't toughen up, and the sad reality is that this team, saddled by O'Neal's unappealing contract, is a few moves away from redemption and has a 18 months until Bosh inevitably bounces for greener pastures. They need more post bangers (Andrea Bargnani doesn't fit the bill) and a slashing swingman to attack defenses, but securing those assets in time to convince Bosh to stay might be too much to ask.

Chicago Bulls
This team's lost. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf's "disaster" stamp on the season was a little harsh (considering they're the prime candidates to snatch the 8th seed out East when Michael Redd-less Milwaukee inevitably loses it), but the Bulls aren't headed anywhere significant. They have no post presence on offense, a glut of underachieving forwards and their best scorer can shoot them out of games just as easily as back into them (I won't even start ranting about the presence of Larry Hughes). This core was supposed to take them to the top of the conference last year, and has proved that Scott Skiles wasn't necessarily the problem; they're incompatible and too young. Trade for size and experience, let Rose continue to blossom and condense the talent on a roster with too many mediocre players fighting for minutes.

Houston Rockets
Another year of West Crown ambitions, another year as middle men well below the cusp of elite status. Sure it's been tough for them to stay healthy (it's cliche at this point), but this team needs to trade T-Mac while he's still considered an All-Star calibre talent, which he's looking less and less like every day. I know, I know, wasn't I just waxing about T-Mac ressurrecting his career just last week? Sure, I hope for his sake he does so his career isn't branded a tease like Vince before him...but it's also not very likely. If I'm Houston, I'm working the phones to find a guy who will stay healthy, play within the offense and, if he's a volume shooter, at least break the .400 barrier. If Mac's value hasn't plummeted as low as I'm guessing, maybe even snag a backup center in the deal and give yourself some bodies that may be a downgrade in talent, but a serious upgrade in funtionality.

Phoenix Suns
Terry Porter's hiring was a mistake. He's forced them to play a slower, almost shackled game, especially in contrast to D'Antoni's system. His emphasis on defense has spelled the Suns' minor implosion this season for two main reasons: 1) After several years of playing the most amusing, trigger-happy basketball the league's seen in ages, nobody on Phoenix's roster wants to buy into a defensive grind. Sure Shaq slows them down, they can't run as much, but their offensive sets are reminiscent of Porter's stagnant and inept Milwaukee teams; they're too talented to be this reined in. 2) Stressing D doesn't play to the Suns' skills. Steve Nash? Can't guard a D-league bench warmer. Amar'e Stoudemire? Foul-prone and easily frustrated. Jason Richardson? Twice the scorer he is a defender. Porter's approach evidently hasn't been popular with his players, especially Stoudemire who needs to be appeased or traded. Scuba Steve Kerr will have a much easier time canning a disliked coach than explaining to everyone why he got lowballed for his franchise player. In two summers, Stoudemire will likely be tempted by an offer to play alongside Lebron James or Dwyane Wade (there's several teams with that much cash to throw), so don't give him more reasons to walk.

Los Angeles Clippers
They have several tradeable assets, so the Clippers need to do something drastic, anything to shake things up. No one should be considered untouchable on this roster; they're talented but still are tied for the league's worst record. Like the Bulls, they're a team without a real identity, but with enough talent to make a serious splash at the trade deadline. Their team's been bogged down in a losing culture since their inception, and why they're continuing to struggle so mightily this year is seriously beyond me. Something needs to give though, that something being either Marcus Camby or Chris Kaman, which could fetch a nice return at the deadline and give DeAndre Jordan a chance to get some burn. They need more role players and perimeter defenders as a start, but they won't right the ship for a few years, and this being the Clippers, probably not at all.

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