Tuesday, August 31, 2010

"...Still a Whole Lot to Lose"

..So what now? It seemed like the entire Association was on guard for years, eagerly awaiting the summer of 2010 and gutting their rosters for the best chance at cashing in on the free agent jackpot. Most of them now return to the drawing board with their hands empty and their dreams dashed, facing the very daunting task of competing with a potential dynasty in Miami to deliver the title their fans all hoped this offseason would help bring home.


As the aftershocks from a ridiculous summer begin to settle, so too does the reality that the Heat are going to be very difficult to contend with this year. Few people on any side of the argument think that anyone besides the current champs and maaaybe a healthy Celtics squad could realistically beat them, and the teams with even a remote chance at doing so can be counted on a single hand. What for the past few seasons had looked like a wide open title chase is suddenly an exclusive endeavor that few teams will even catch a glimpse of.


Despite this cold new frontier, those that won't be playing for a championship will still have lots to lose, if not little to win. Without even mentioning a potential lockout, there's plenty of reason for urgency in many NBA cities; everything from plummeting profits and attendance to unhappy superstars and reputations to protect. Even in the ominous shadow of the league's best teams, the pressure will be immense and the outcomes potentially devastating. Someone's bound to get the worst of it, so giving some benefit of the doubt to the champs and the heir apparents (who, despite having a title to defend and expectations higher than Method Man to meet, are clearly on top of things), here are the ten teams with the most on the line this year:


10. Houston Rockets
Eight years ago, the Rockets drafted Yao Ming first overall in the hopes that he would be a dominant big man and ambassador of a game whose popularity was exploding in his native China. They managed to build a solid cast around he and T-Mac, every season promising a title run to its fans, every season ended prematurely by a fatal array of injuries to their stars. While Yao's done admirably when able, the toll that a decade of non-stop basketball (thanks to ridiculous offseason demands from the Chinese national team) took its toll on his brittle body, keeping him on the chilling list for large slumps of his career. This season will be his most important ever, as Yao, his doctors, and the Rockets all point to another injury being the end of his career. If he stays healthy, pairing him with Kevin Martin will give the Rockets an offensive punch they sorely lacked all last year and surely put them in the West playoffs, but if Yao succumbs to his ailments, we'll have lost a great talent, and Rockets season ticket holders will have been stymied yet again.


9. Detroit Pistons
Not only is this team struggling to keep their heads above water in the East, their fan base grew tired of stale, crappy basketball last season and attendance at Pistons games sank like employment rates in Michigan during the recession. Things have gone from good to bad deplorable too quickly in disinterested and economically-challenged Motown; the once Shaft-esque front office smoothness of Joe Dumars has become as coarse as the sandpaper his balls will soon meet after the bandsaw. Drafting Darko Milicic in the deepest class ever, trading your franchise player inexplicably for a reputed selfish tyrant, signing two third-tier talents to half your team's cap space to have them come off the bench...this is not the kind of decision making that builds winning teams or keeps people their jobs. If Dumars isn't able to put the brakes on this disaster very soon, he might be thrown on the grenade, but even that should do little to prevent this entire team from being blown up if they don't improve vastly. Don't count on it happening.


8. Toronto Raptors
The other squads on this list are rolling the dice on more tangible assets like players and season ticket holders. The Raps come into this season still reeling from their franchise icon's unceremonious exit, facing the implicit task of carrying an entire country's waning basketball interest on their shoulders. Well over half of the games broadcast on Canadian cable tv feature Toronto (...can't wait for this League Pass subscription), meaning most of the basketball we're being exposed to is flimsy, uninspiring crap that's sure to only get worse after RuPaul wasn't traded at the deadline, the team crashed their 5th seed into the lottery over the final 25 games, and he inevitably left. Canadians who (relatively) have little connection to the NBA beyond this shitstorm won't forever hold interest in a team that perpetually loses too many games and All-Star talents (don't forget about T-Mac) for nothing at all. Expectations won't be very high for this team, but the pressure has to be mounting for Toronto to at least come close to meeting them.


7. New York Knicks
What was once basketball's undisputed holy ground became its laughing stock over the last ten years as the Knicks took stupidity to new heights both on and off court. Their salvation was supposed to have arrived this past summer, but endless rumors, perennial tanking, and relentless hope amounted to only marginal improvements and a sense of uncertainty. Not only is this team's range of potential success as wide as any other's in the East, the swirling rumors of Chris Paul and Melo's interest now torment a team that just spent four seasons tanking for Lebron and probably came nowhere close to getting him. If the team plays well and the Knicks can lure both, or even one of their targets, then this year will be a success...If things don't play out so well, the basketball-crazed Garden regulars and boisterous media could turn on this team quickly and be a negative catalyst to any even slight progress. They have the largest window of opportunity of all these teams, but their situation can also become the most volatile if they don't capitalize on it; they haven't done much to make up for the past decade so far.


6. Orlando Magic
It was a summer of slight setback in Orlando; one where the competition got much, much better, and the Magic struggled to stay in neutral, losing Matt Barnes and overpaying to keep JJ Redick. Vince and Rashard aren't getting any younger, Jameer's health is becoming an annual concern, and Dwight's offensive game actually regressed last year as he was frustrated by incessant fouling and forced to earn more of his points at the stripe. Especially now in the imposing shadow of their stateside rivals, things aren't so sunny in Orlando; even Stan Van Gundy's been admitting to the media that the Heat are virtually unbeatable. He might just be trying to motivate his team, but they'll be hard pressed to make it back to the Finals with this squad. Having few big names they'll be willing to or able to trade, and a bloated payroll that will brutally handicap their ability to maneuver, this team will just have to dig deep and exceed all expectation to protect their contender status and prove their coach wrong.


5. New Orleans Hornets
Now that Lebron James is no longer in Leveland, Chris Paul holds the honor of being the single most important player to his team's success in the entire NBA. That he's publicly unhappy with the state of the franchise has to be of concern to a front office in a small, challenged market. The Hornets will have a difficult time being relevant in a city that just won a Super Bowl and a country that (not to sound insensitive) is further removed from the devastation of Katrina, if Paul ends up forcing his way out. It would be easier for Shawn Kemp to get hired at Planned Parenthood than it will be for New Orleans to get equal return on CP3, so being forced into dealing the league's best point guard could be devastating. They'd better hope Trevor Ariza's really that answer nobody expects him to be and the potential of Peja's expiring deal is enticing enough for Paul Wall to stay...But who honestly believes it is?


4. San Antonio Spurs
For the first time since Tim Duncan's rookie season, (think about it, this was back when we all thought baseball players were honest athletes, had no clue who Britney Spears was, and thought the World was going to end because of a misplaced computer digit) the Spurs are a few steps removed from the title conversation. They lucked out into landing one of the best big men ever and have milked four championships out of him, but face a serious crossroads this year with their often-injured trio of stars (especially Duncan) on aging legs, their competition getting much tougher, and their roster virtually unchanged from last season. Rebuilding seems almost unfathomable and probably too drastic, but something's gonna have to give here before Timmy D's knees do. Another title's out of the question, and last year's team gave little reason to suggest a slight-shake up's a bad idea.


3. Dallas Mavericks
It's hard to fault the Mavs. They've upgraded what was already one of the best rosters in a deep Western pool and should easily win 50 games this year while being cheered on by a raucous home crowd...But beneath that sugar-coating, this Dallas team is a perennial playoff disappointment that faces an ever-shrinking window to win a title. Disco's failed more often than succeeded with assorted arrays of talent around him, and Mark Cuban's undivided attention - the catalyst that elevated this franchise from lottery doldrum to playoff staple - is clearly wandering after numerous attempts to buy other teams. Like the Spurs, they're too good of a team to be rebuilding, but their feeble playoff track record only increases their need (and unlikelihood) to outperform teams that are simply much better than them to finally get that elusive title. Another first round exit would almost certainly amount to the end of Dirk's status as a franchise player, and the tossing of this roster into the proverbial blender.


2. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets faced a tragic obstacle last year when a terrific campaign was derailed by coach George Karl's second bout with cancer, almost directly coinciding with a nose dive that ended their season far earlier than they'd hoped. With Karl's health hanging in the balance, an already delicate situation was suddenly dropped on the pavement when stories of Carmelo Anthony's imminent departure began surfacing. Denver now must placate their displeased franchise player, while trying to move him in a market that's ulikely to return equal value, working against a ticking clock that every other GM is aware of. So while the careful maneuvering continues and 'Melo plays the waiting game, the Nuggets and their fans are consumed by uncertainy, knowing only for sure that their best player wants out. For a team that's a lock for homecourt in the West at full strength, this is no way to start the season.


1. Boston Celtics
More than any other team in the NBA, the Celtics are built for the right now. Although their best player's barely grazing his prime (and to think three years ago he was a potential liability), this team's core is more susceptible to injury and age than anyone else's. Vulnerability to fatigue and fragility only heightens the urgency of this being perhaps their last shot at another title with the seniors' squad. This team went through a vicious mid-season down swing, but entered the playoffs armed with full health and their A-game, silencing critics and supposedly better teams with a defiant run to within an untimely injury and some Ron Artest (?!?!?!?!) heroics of a title. That bitter ending should only serve as motivation on what will be a very difficult road through Miami and/or LA; the Celts probably feel as though they need to redeem themselves, or at least Kevin Garnett has probably frightened them into believing it. Not that they need any extra motivation. This season could likely be the final shot at the Finals, the last chance for this crew to build their legacies and probably the last time the Celtics will be this close to contending for a while.

Monday, August 23, 2010

...So...It's Been A While...

About four months ago, I abruptly and inexplicably stopped writing Basketball Banter, right before awards season, the playoffs, and of course the Free Agency Saga. Admittedly, my timing sucked but for the first time in my life, I just got sick of writing. I had spent weeks logging full days of incessant typing; pounding out term papers that were left far too late, "proofreading" essays for friends, and trying to throw enough stuff on here to keep things interesting. Writing was consuming my life; lines and letters were beginning to blur as words slurred and the monotony chewed at my brain. So when school ended I took a pretty impulsive break from any kind of scribing. We needed some time apart,

Over this hiatus, I've given much thought to the on-again, off-again nature of this site. It's something I love doing, but it has too often succumbed to the other stuff going on in my life, even when things needed to be said. I watched Lebron fail. I watched the cement harden around Kobe's legacy. I watched the most turbulent offseason ever wreak havoc on the NBA's balance of power and make a bold stroke in its history books. And I didn't write a word. The summer was no time to re-commit myself to writing as almost every minute I wasn't working, sleeping or at a poker table was spent enjoying the scarce Canadian summer with friends, a blunt, and a brew. Despite this, my insides were searing at the prospect of chiming in on what was unfolding. The time apart was tough.

After much hesitation and deliberation, and with the summer gearing down into another school year and eventual NBA season, I've decided to make a firm, more sustainable commitment to the Banter. You're not going to see any more of the regular features like the Power Rankings or the short-lived Water Cooler, nor am I going to be putting out several hundred words every day or two. I'm going to try and stay as on-point as possible, but with school, work and habitual gambling on the go, the time for irrelevant blogging just might not always be there. There's never a shortage of Banter-worthy issues around the Association though, so stay familiar, better yet, invest thirty seconds into signing up for Blogger. You'll be able to post comments, chirp me and call me out when I'm wrong, suggest ideas and generate some discussion about a sport we're all huge fans of. Why not?

So here we stand, four months removed from my last post but worlds apart from the NBA we once knew. After the most eventful playoffs and offseason I've ever witnessed, things done changed. Most notably, the Miami Heat have evolved from solo act to omnipotent juggernaut. Pat Riley's going to be unanimously voted GM of the Year after loading up his roster with title-hungry veterans who will flank three of the league's consensus top ten players on a potential dynasty unlike any we've seen. Shrewd move, but as a basketball fan, I have to hate it for so many reasons: the alleged pact these guys made to sign together, that boisterous unveiling party for their Big 3, the stupid talent edge they've given themselves over pretty much all competiton. It's going to make the NBA a lot less competitive and a lot less fun, especially if stars begin aligning against them like the rumoured Melo and CP3 union with Amare under the Garden lights. So yeah, fuck the Heat. I don't care if Lebron plays for them. I'll still enjoy him as a basketball player but it's impossible for me to appreciate the titles he'll eventually no doubt win in the way I wished I could.

...As far as the rest of what's unfolded over my prolonged absence, here's a not-so-objective look at the summer's winners, losers and everything in between:

THE BIG LOSERS: If you're here, you're up shit's creek, without a paddle, while on several pills.The City of Cleveland - The Cavaliers sure took a loss; they fell from contenders to fringe lottery team and had their owner add insult to his own injury with a foolish Comic Sans rallying cry to Cavs fans that got him fined and essentially guaranteed a superstar will never sign with a team he owns. But the whole city was shaken by Lebron's eloping; a legion of fans who've faced years of bitter sports disappointment were let down yet again, this time by one of their own.

The Toronto Raptors - Losing your franchise player to free agency on less-than-ideal terms is never a great way to start the season, but after the bitterness of the Bosh breakup, Toronto had looked to have made a shrewd trade with the Bobcats to significantly upgrade their depleted frontcourt....Until Michael Jordan realized he was being completely screwed and vetoed the trade at the last second, marking his first competent front office move since relinquishing his control of the Washington Wizards.

Allen Iverson - He desperately wants to play basketball for a living but might have burnt his last bridge in the NBA. Teams are denying interest in he embattled former MVP left, right and center while the offseason countdown nears one month and free agent dollars are being spent very frugally.

Chris Bosh - In the capitalist, machiavellian sense of things, Chris Bosh is a winner. He raised his precious profile immensely by signing an obscenely large contract to play a game he loves professionally for a very good team with his two best pals in a balmy tax-free paradise. In the moral, "don't be an idiot" sense of things, Chris Bosh lost the respect and admiration of myself and just about anyone else who isn't a pretentious douchebag. His entire free agency - peppered with inflammatory and immature Twitter updates - was an admitted charade, documented by a film crew almost as large as his ego, only to later remark on his lame-ass Twitter account that the "attention was nice". What a nine year-old girl. Ride Dwyane and Lebron's jock all the way to the title homie, a whole legion of fans now know you're a fucking dweeb.

THE WOSERS: As the name implies, this group are part winner, mostly loser.The New York Knicks - Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton? That's it? The Knicks had spent years preparing for this free agent bonanza and although they're unquestionably a better team, they have to feel like they fanned on this one. New York put all its eggs in the ability of its bright lights to attract the biggest stars, and built this offseason up to be something much bigger than it was. Regardless of what happens over the next twelve months with the Knicks having money to spare and All-Stars imminently on the move, I'm feeling slightly cheated right now if I'm a Knicks fan. Right now, any hope of Melo or CP3 is all speculation, which this team just proved will always surround them, but not necessarily amount to much.

Tracy Mcgrady - He found a job, but the murky quagmire Detroit's bogged down in isn't exactly an ideal place for a struggling superstar to revive his career. He'll be looked upon to mentor the tumultuous youngsters he'll compete for minutes with, himself having never been much for veteran savvy, coming off another injury with more than ever to prove. All the best...

Byron Scott - Again, he's probably happy just to have a job in the NBA, but you can't help but feel bad for a guy who hears the most coveted free agent ever say the team who just hired him days ago has an edge for his services, but will instead be relying on the decrepit remains of the most depressed team in pro sports.

THE JURY-HANGERS: Sometimes you just can't tell...
Lebron James - ...and then there's this guy. Hearing that Bron was going to announce his free agency decision on an hour-long TV special was pretty lame. Hearing my favorite player say he was leaving his hometown squad to form a seemingly unfair triumvirate of NBA dominance broke my heart. I felt like he took the easy way out, and largely still do (many I've spoken to agree) but it's easy to criticize when we haven't spent years going all out for a team that utimately didn't give anywhere near as much back. Lebron carried the Cavs deep into the playoffs several times with meager surroundings that were hastily thrown together in several desperate attempts to convince him Cleveland didn't suck all that much after all. He re-signed with them a few years ago and gave them a fair window to assemble a dynasty for him, something Danny and Dan were unable to deliver.

Now entering the prime of his career, Lebron wanted to truly carve out a niche in the game's annals and had clearly grown tired of individual dominance leading to mild team success.
In Miami, he's already given up money and roughly 1/3 of the spotlight for a chance to win multiple rings, but he's also given up a piece of his own legacy; he'll never fulfill the prophetic promise of leading his hometown team to a title, and now when he inevitably wins one (several?) people are already willing to toss up an asterix. Alongside these other superstars, he'll never be the hero he once was and could've become. In the same fell swoop, he became one of America's most hated athletes, perceived by millions as a diva who deserted the Cavs like a rich businessman who has a mid-life crisis and dumps his devoted wife for some bombshell who's half her age.
You could really say pretty much anything you want about Lebron James after this offseason and I'd have a hard time disagreeing. That being said, there are many facets to his complex scenario that made his Decision more difficult than any most of us will ever have to make, it's tough to relate to. Always a very polarizing figure, Lebron's only escalated his own status with this move as the Heat will undoubtedly be the talk of the NBA; they will be the most exciting team, the most featured on TV, and probably just the best, but they will also be -by a very wide margin - the most hated on. Ultimately if Lebron's Decision becomes dynastic, I'll be happy for him, but will anybody have expected any less?
Chris Paul - Maybe it's just me, but I have a feeling this guy's days in New Orleans are still numbered. His feelings about the state of the franchise changed suspiciously quickly a few weeks ago after he had apparently demanded a trade, and after watching how Phoenix completely fucked up Amare's delicate situation (and nobody say a word about them "saving money", you know what they did with that "saved money"? They acquired The Artist Formerly Known as Hedo Turkoglu for 44 millions dollars.) New Orleans and Paul would both do well to play this out while creating the impression that he's not leaving. Gone by the deadline, I'm taking bets at even money.
Amare Stoudemire - I guess the prayers of a single NBA fan who loves watching large, clumsy oafs get put on posters and Highlight of the Night reels wasn't enough as Lebron and Amare wound up on different squads, again. Stoudemire now finds himself the centerpiece of New York's much lauded rebuilding effort; the face of the Mecca. He'll once again play for the coach who he blew up under and the Knicks will be a playoff team again. Still though, after he was left out of the Miami party and remains the only star on this team, Stoudemire's summer wasn't exactly ideal...Then again, if rumours become truth and two more elite talents are ready to join him, he might come out on top of this whole mess.
Joe Johnson - Straight up, the man got paid. 126 million is a very large number, especially for a guy whose last significant basketball was an embarassing disappearing act. Johnson's re-upping makes it that much more difficult for an Atlanta team that's nowhere close to contention to maneuer towards a title. Clearly he's happy being the man on a competitive team, and the Hawks are happy to have him back after years of pathetic teams and apathetic fans, but the sad reality is that the franchise's appartent commitment to winning still probably won't amount to more than a first round dismissal.
The Chicago Bulls - Well, they finally did it; they got Carlos Boozer. The potential opportunity cost of not getting him sooner could have the Bulls front office hurting worse than Vinny Del Negro after his boss beat him up and fired him in the same trimester. The pieces were all in place for Chicago to land either Lebron or hometwon hero Dwyane Wade, (a large part of me still firmly believes that James' best choice would've been to join an unreal Bulls roster and write his chapter of NBA history in MJ's own city, creating a four-way battle for East supremacy against his South Beach buddies and two teams against whom he has playoff vendettas to settle. But that would've been too much fun) and although they're still likely a homecourt team in the East, does anybody see them winning even one against the Heat? The magnitude of what Miami did this offseason cannot be underestimated, which brings me to...
THE WINNERS: Pat Riley and Dwyane WadeWhether by secret plot and careful planning or convenient development, these two engineered a completely unanticipated coup that turned the entire sports world on its head and immediately vaulted the Miami Heat from the middle of the Eastern Conference to the top of the NBA. It's been mentioned before but bears repeating: two of the three most talented players in the league now play on the same team, along with one of its best big men. They are flanked not by young scrubs like last year's Heat, but complementary and title-hungry veterans who will likely know their roles demand little attention; seeking rings, not money or fame. They are an assembly of talent arguably unrivaled in the NBA's entire history and they will quite likely change the game as we know it.

Riley is adding a compelling layer to what was already one of basketball's most accomplished resumes. A former NBA standout who's coached three teams to finals appearances will now add a GM of the Year trophy and quite realistically several rings to the three he already owns. His status as the don dada of front office tactics is currently unquestioned as his legend growth cruises on autopilot. In hosting the free agent party, Wade became this summer's unquestioned on-court winner. He calmly, discretely went about the process and helped reel in the two biggest catches for his franchise. Yes, HIS franchise. Make no mistake about it, even amidst Lebron and Bosh (both of whom also took a giant hit in the eyes of their fans, while Wade came out looking like the true hero), this will always be Dwyane Wade's team. He was the one who put them on his back and won them a title when his new teammates' squads were still grappling with mediocrity, the one who was tempted with the World by several teams and not only chose to stay but to give Heat fans something truly special to witness. If you're not either of these guys, you're not on top of the game right now....

Unless you're Kobe Bryant. Lost in all this summer hoopla is the stern reality that Miami's road to the title still goes through the NBA's most cold-blooded assassin who just copped a fifth ring and a clean bill of health for the first time in two seasons. He's no doubt freshly motivated to take on the Superfriends; I can already envision him running suicides in a dark, empty gym with a demented fire in his eyes and that stupid Miami welcoming party playing on a TV nearby. Regardless of the Free Agency Odyssey's final chapter, Bryant is the NBA's king right now. His fifth title moves him ahead of Shaq and levels him with Magic and Kareem (in purple and gold at least); many are now making the serious and legitimate argument that he's the greatest in a very long line of great Los Angeles Lakers. It's funny how shit turns out. Fourteen years ago, Kobe Bryant was the naive high-schooler who wasn't ready for the NBA, ten years ago he was the Jordan wannabe who could never live up to the hype, six years ago he was the alleged rapist who spurned a dynasty, and just three years ago he was the selfish teammate who couldn't stand his shallow surroundings and needed to be traded. The hate has rained on Bryant his entire career - his fucking hometown even booed him as the All-Star MVP - but his indomitable work ethic and respect for the game has ultimately turned him into such an excellent player, and winner, that all we can do is respect his shine.

Some are saying if he beats the Heat he might be the greatest of all time. I think I speak for most of us when I wish him the sincerest of luck. Only two months 'til the season tips off...