Monday, November 25, 2013

Every Rose Has Its Thorn - Poison for Chicago

What's been a pretty weird NBA season so far just took a turn for the unexpected worse today; Derrick Rose tore the meniscus in his other knee, and will miss the rest of the season after surgery. This more or less detonates the Bulls' 2013-14 season (and Bill Simmons' title prediction), after enduring Rose's epic ACL recovery and setting their sights on the NBA Finals.

This is troubling not only for the obvious implications to the city of Chicago, but to the legions of Heat Haters and those who were praying for some depth of competition in the East after Brooklyn had the most horrendous opening month possible for a team paying its starting five a combined $82 million (seriously).

It's also troubling because Derrick Rose will now have played 49 games in three seasons (well, technically 50...) heading into what's supposed to be the prime of a Hall-of-Fame career. His story was too good; the hometown high-school hero who was going to lead a talented team to a title. He was what we all wanted LeBron to be. And at full strength he was an incredible talent.

Now his career's in a serious flux; rather than continuing to knock rust off through his return, he'll be gathering more, as his team continues to adjust and evolve around his absence. Unless his mentality toward rehab has changed, he'll be taking his time coming back, and while the long-term prognosis is good, Rose's place among the A's elite - now on two shaky knees and approaching Greg Oden recovery status - has become a much shakier issue than it already was.

The best of wishes are with Rose, and I'm sure he'll beast through his rehab with gritty determination, but by the end of it he'll have spent plenty of time away from the court, and the explosive nature of Rose's game thrives on youthful athleticism and strong legs - two things that are escaping him.

Speaking of elite guards whose status has been recently put in the air, Kobe Bryant inked a two-year $48 million extension with the Lakers, taking an 18% pay cut that will still make him the highest-paid player in the NBA. The benefits of seniority.

While inevitable, Bryant signing an extension of this size severely handicaps the Lakers' dream cap space situation entering an offseason as juicy as next summer's Draft. With over half their space now tapped on two aging players (as good as Kobe is, it's just a fact) the Lakers have played themselves into the epitome of employee loyalty. Whether Bryant has enough pull to fill out this roster with similar pay cuts remains to be seen.

Even if the Lakers can pair Kobe with a max player, they'll have $10-12 million left in cap space to fill out 8-9 roster spots, and are going to be razor-thin next year unless Mitch Kupchak has another "franchise player from nothing"-type Pau Gasol deal up his sleeve (side note: has any recent trade been such a win-win for both teams? Memphis signs Zach Randolph, becomes Playoff threat, Marc Gasol evolves from a throw-in into possibly the NBA's best center; Lakers win back-to-back titles)

These aren't really odds Lakers fans want to bank on, particularly with Nash denying the rumored retirement that would conveniently free up space for a third max contract. With Bryant having more or less stopped playing defense most nights, and Nash never having really been able to, they'll be left with two of the oldest players in the A (Stevie Wonder being the oldest) coming back from injuries to form an offense-polar backcourt at a "Buy It Now!" of over $34 million.

Clearly the Lakers could never trade Bryant or let him walk without both causing complete anarchy among their own fanbase and fueling the evil aura every other fan already has about the organization. But from a rational perspective, so, so, so rarely does a team in rebuilding mode go into a deluxe Free Agency
 buffet with a clean payroll and an area code no pro athlete wouldn't at least consider. And now that opportunity - to sign Bryant for something less imposing after beginning to form a contender around him - is gone.

But hey, these are the Lakers, and if one team knows a thing or two about stumbling ass-backwards into All-Stars, it's them. It might have to happen again for Kobe to go out on top, and for his final ride in L.A. - after two decades of legendary basketball - to not end up costing his team a perfectly clean slate.