Tuesday, December 17, 2013

The NBA's Best White Centers

A few weeks back, I had the rare honor of paying tribute to professional basketball's most often-humbled genus - the White Center - with a "Best Of" list for BallOverAll.com.

Unfortunately, the site underwent a management shift as the piece sat on the publishing desk, and it was lost in the shuffle and knocked to the floor like Shawn Bradley beneath a two-handed tomahawk.

So instead of letting this list grow moss, I'm tossing it up here as some Bonus Banter. Enjoy
:

The NBA’s first true superstar was a dominant white center, but in the fifty-plus years since George Mikan crushed the Association’s opening era, the game has changed dramatically. It has not been kind to the pale-toned big man.

Nowadays stereotyped as plodding, clumsy poster shots waiting to happen, the white center’s reputation has fallen considerably. Speed, strength and skill have caught up to height, altering the game and reducing the edge of the (typically) least-athletic players on the floor.

So while the Jeff Witheys of the World become famous for being viciously dunked on (and then having Shaq accidentally call him “Jeff WHITEY!” several times on TV), here’s a nod to the guys holding down the pivot below the rim: the NBA’s Best White Centers

(Apologies to: Enes Kanter, Robin Lopez, Jason Smith, and Omer Asik, at least until he escapes Dwight Howard Island via trade)

8. Tiago Splitter
Like so many Spurs before him, Splitter came to the NBA a seasoned veteran of international play, and it took him little time to become a valuable cog in San Antonio’s rotation.

Splitter’s game is a versatile mix of slightly-above mediocrity. He’s a jack of all trades, who isn’t looked to regularly for big contributions by Gregg Popovich, but combines deft movement for his size with solid passing, finishing, and interior defense to complement Tim Duncan nicely.

Any player who’s been a part of the Spurs’ System for this long knows about giving what the team needs, and Splitter has rarely failed to deliver over several seasons of deep Playoff success.

7. Spencer Hawes
Hawes spent several seasons trying to find his footing for the up-and-coming Sixers; too inconsistent from outside and too soft in the paint, he was a man without a home on a team without much of an identity.

This season, the Sixers had a very clear identity: tanking in the most glorious way possible. As such, Hawes has seen the roster around him erode, expectations shrink, and Philly’s pace of play skyrocket.

Within the loose confines of this free-wheeling flow, he’s played himself onto this list, putting up career-average-crippling numbers of 17/10/3 with 1.5 blocks and a Top-30 PER of 20.87 (*has since fallen to 15/9 and 18.22). Only time will tell if Hawes can keep this up, but his play is more confident than ever, and it’s a big reason why the Sixers haven’t been nearly as bad as predicted.

6. Nikola Pekovic
Coming out of nowhere (well, Montenegro, but in NBA terms, nowhere) for the T-Wolves two years ago, Pekovic carried the intimidating look of a GTA henchman, and developed a reputation for his bruising, physical presence.

Carrying more mass than any current player, Pekovic isn’t a lumbering Oliver Miller-type obstruction. While he’s quite vertically challenged and offers little in the way of rim protection, Pek is a devastating finisher close to the hoop, who is skilled on the boards and makes up for his lack of athleticism by sheer size and smart positioning.

His stats are downsloping now that the best power forward in the NBA is back sharing his frontcourt, but Pekovic remains a vital part of the Wolves’ lineup. He’s one of a dying breed of physical NBA enforcers, but brings enough skill to make that role secondary.

5. Marcin Gortat
The Polish Hammer has been one of the NBA’s most consistently-underrated players, first buried beneath Dwight Howard’s minutes and drama in Orlando, and then relegated to the sudden abyss of the Phoenix Suns.

Claimed from the Suns’ liquidation sale by an ostensible “team on the rise”, Gortat helps form a dangerous-when-healthy starting core in Washington. With a nice scoring touch inside ten feet, and providing a strong backbone to a lineup short on good defenders with above-average shot disruption. He plays within himself and does it very well, bringing plenty to the court and taking little away.

Flirting with a double-double average, Gortat’s proving himself as more than a “good stats/awful team” guy, with one of the more likely squads to get it together in the laughably sad Eastern Conference.

4. Nikola Vucevic
At the time it seemed dubious: Orlando was giving up Dwight Howard – the undisputed best center in the NBA back then – and getting no All-Stars back. Well, 18 months later, “Things Done Changed”.

In a somewhat-unlikely turn, the Magic became the obvious winners of the trade after the Lakers and Sixers had total Hindenburg seasons and Vucevic – who flashed solid skills as a rookie – hit the Sophomore Speedway and instantly became a versatile scorer and one of the NBA’s best rebounders. Not to mention he’s the only center acquired in that deal who’s still with the team.

With upside to spare, the other Nik from Montenegro gave Orlando what Dwight couldn’t decide if he wanted to be: a center they could build a winning franchise around.

3. Pau Gasol
Long the NBA and Global standard for fair-skinned big men, Gasol the Elder is an all-around beast who’s adjusted to playing largely out-of-position for a Lakers team he vaulted to two rings with his arrival.

While his body’s begun to slow down after twelve years with the Grizzlies and Lakers – not to mention a Yao Ming-like level of international play – Pau remains a multi-faceted force who brings the skill and high intelligence that will continue to make him effective as he grows older.

With the Lakers going nowhere fast this season, and Gasol’s contract on its last legs, there’s no telling what the future holds for him. But count on him to age gracefully, hopefully chasing a few more rings to cement his Hall of Fame legacy.

2. Brook Lopez
When the Nets drafted Brook Lopez 10th overall in 2008, few were thinking “this guy might be the NBA’s best low post scorer someday”. Sure enough, here we are five years later, and Lopez is – unless you count this guy,which some might see as unfair – one of the NBA’s best two or three best low post scorers.

His rebounding woes are well chronicled and confounding; Lopez is a reasonably athletic legit seven-footer, who for whatever reason doesn’t possess the same board-hungry gene as his own twin brother. Despite this, he can still disrupt shots near the rim (career 1.8 blocks) and moves better than most seven footers across and up the floor.

His IQ on offense belies his rebounding awareness; Lopez plays with purpose and scores at a high clip in an array of ways. He screens well, can pass out of double teams, and even grabs an impressive rate of his paltry board totals on his own team’s misses. This Cuban-Caucasian Sensation has been one of the many standouts of a sneaky-good ’08 Draft Class.

1. Marc Gasol
The Memphis Grizzlies’ salary-dump of Pau Gasol to the Lakers in 2008 was widely-bashed as one of the worst ever; L.A. gave up what seemed like painfully little to acquire an All-Star, and the final piece to the Title puzzle.

In one of sports’ ultimate ironies, Gasol’s own “little” brother would eventually turn those notions on their heads, evolving from unknown prospect into not only the best white center in the NBA, but in the eyes of many, the League’s best center, period.

Marcy Marc does it all for the Grizz; he scores pretty much at will from anywhere inside 18 feet with a crafty mix of face up/back down moves, is the best playmaking big man right now by a wide margin, and also happens to be the reigning DPOY as the backbone of Memphis’ suffocating #GNG defense.

George Mikan would be proud. 

Monday, November 25, 2013

Every Rose Has Its Thorn - Poison for Chicago

What's been a pretty weird NBA season so far just took a turn for the unexpected worse today; Derrick Rose tore the meniscus in his other knee, and will miss the rest of the season after surgery. This more or less detonates the Bulls' 2013-14 season (and Bill Simmons' title prediction), after enduring Rose's epic ACL recovery and setting their sights on the NBA Finals.

This is troubling not only for the obvious implications to the city of Chicago, but to the legions of Heat Haters and those who were praying for some depth of competition in the East after Brooklyn had the most horrendous opening month possible for a team paying its starting five a combined $82 million (seriously).

It's also troubling because Derrick Rose will now have played 49 games in three seasons (well, technically 50...) heading into what's supposed to be the prime of a Hall-of-Fame career. His story was too good; the hometown high-school hero who was going to lead a talented team to a title. He was what we all wanted LeBron to be. And at full strength he was an incredible talent.

Now his career's in a serious flux; rather than continuing to knock rust off through his return, he'll be gathering more, as his team continues to adjust and evolve around his absence. Unless his mentality toward rehab has changed, he'll be taking his time coming back, and while the long-term prognosis is good, Rose's place among the A's elite - now on two shaky knees and approaching Greg Oden recovery status - has become a much shakier issue than it already was.

The best of wishes are with Rose, and I'm sure he'll beast through his rehab with gritty determination, but by the end of it he'll have spent plenty of time away from the court, and the explosive nature of Rose's game thrives on youthful athleticism and strong legs - two things that are escaping him.

Speaking of elite guards whose status has been recently put in the air, Kobe Bryant inked a two-year $48 million extension with the Lakers, taking an 18% pay cut that will still make him the highest-paid player in the NBA. The benefits of seniority.

While inevitable, Bryant signing an extension of this size severely handicaps the Lakers' dream cap space situation entering an offseason as juicy as next summer's Draft. With over half their space now tapped on two aging players (as good as Kobe is, it's just a fact) the Lakers have played themselves into the epitome of employee loyalty. Whether Bryant has enough pull to fill out this roster with similar pay cuts remains to be seen.

Even if the Lakers can pair Kobe with a max player, they'll have $10-12 million left in cap space to fill out 8-9 roster spots, and are going to be razor-thin next year unless Mitch Kupchak has another "franchise player from nothing"-type Pau Gasol deal up his sleeve (side note: has any recent trade been such a win-win for both teams? Memphis signs Zach Randolph, becomes Playoff threat, Marc Gasol evolves from a throw-in into possibly the NBA's best center; Lakers win back-to-back titles)

These aren't really odds Lakers fans want to bank on, particularly with Nash denying the rumored retirement that would conveniently free up space for a third max contract. With Bryant having more or less stopped playing defense most nights, and Nash never having really been able to, they'll be left with two of the oldest players in the A (Stevie Wonder being the oldest) coming back from injuries to form an offense-polar backcourt at a "Buy It Now!" of over $34 million.

Clearly the Lakers could never trade Bryant or let him walk without both causing complete anarchy among their own fanbase and fueling the evil aura every other fan already has about the organization. But from a rational perspective, so, so, so rarely does a team in rebuilding mode go into a deluxe Free Agency
 buffet with a clean payroll and an area code no pro athlete wouldn't at least consider. And now that opportunity - to sign Bryant for something less imposing after beginning to form a contender around him - is gone.

But hey, these are the Lakers, and if one team knows a thing or two about stumbling ass-backwards into All-Stars, it's them. It might have to happen again for Kobe to go out on top, and for his final ride in L.A. - after two decades of legendary basketball - to not end up costing his team a perfectly clean slate.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Banter's 2013 NBA Preview

The NHL season kicked off this week, and unlike most of my Canuck armchair athletes, I spent the night at the movies (for the record, don't go see Prisoners).

While most Canadians began engaging in endlessly futile Leafs/Habs debates, I look upon the arrival of hockey as little more than a visceral reminder that the NBA is gearing up right behind it, and us hoops junkies are about to get our best fix again. And the Nuggets are about to give Javale McGee starter's minutes.

Training camps are opening everywhere; literally everywhere as the Raptors returned to my hometown of Halifax for the second straight year, to prep for what - for the first time since the Cretaceous - should be an encouraging season for Canada's lone franchise.

The Raptors aren't alone in their renewed hope, which unfortunately comes in contrast to the rampant tanking that has consumed the League's bottom tier; the promise-packed Draft class of 2014 has plenty of teams "folding pre-flop" to borrow a poker term. Indeed the race of the NBA's worst record will be almost as contested; several teams are already openly pining for lottery balls, with plenty more an injury away from joining the skirmish. Ironic how these same owners spent months griping about "competitive parity" during a lockout less than two years ago, and here we sit.

We'll get the bad out of the way first though, as the Golden Tank season kicks off the Top 9 Fearless Predictions for the 2013-14 NBA Season:

9. The '73 Sixers are safe
With so many teams blatantly canning 82 games in favor of a virtual coin-flip for a chance at a top-2 pick (and either Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker), much has been made of someone potentially breaking the NBA's all-time record for crappiness, most notably the current 76ers squad. Won't happen. Yeah, these Sixers, on paper, are one of the worst and most-maligned assemblies of talent ever, but the Suns aren't too far behind. The Jazz are going to be awful. The Kings are going to play selfish, listless basketball for 96% of the year. The Celtics jumped out of a 3rd-floor window this summer and face major Rondo/identity issues. The Bucks are seriously flawed. The Magic are still figuring things out. The Bobcats will still win 20 games at most. There's no telling just how far things could fall for the Lakers. And, as stated above, with so much incentive in next year's Draft Lottery, any team from the middle tier that suffers a key injury will certainly contemplate jumping in while the water's warm.

Simply put: the bottom third of the NBA might never have been as openly weak as it is this season. All those teams are going to have to play each other enough times, and someone's going to have to win those games, which will be a hell of a lot easier when the opponent subconsciously doesn't want to.

8. D-Rose won't miss a step
Rose spent over a year going through one of the most prolonged and enigmatic rehab processes in sports history. Now that he's back, he's talking about still being the NBA's best player, adding five inches to his vertical, and being merciless enough to murk his own mother on the basketball court.

One thing separating Rose's boisterous sail-filling from the cocky crap pretty much every athlete spews: the last time he made waves by declaring himself a highly-unlikely preseason MVP, he won.

Rose spent a whole season tight-lipped, saying only that he would "come back when he felt 100%" and almost unsure of himself. All indications point to that having been remedied.

7. Joe Dumars will seal his coffin
I think this is it. Dumars bought himself enough rope with the titles he helped Detroit win from both the hardwood and the front office, but this aggressive campaign to get himself fired - drafting Darko, trading Billups for Iverson, grossly over-paying Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, having like seven small forwards on his roster a year ago - I think it's finally come to a head.

I hate the Josh Smith signing. Loathe it. Josh Smith is a versatile, talented player who could heap large rewards for the right team, but the Pistons are about as far from "the right team" as exists in the NBA. With Detroit already anchored down low by Greg Monroe and Mr. Jennette McCurdy, Smith will spend much time at the three spot, dragging him away from the hoop and negating his value as a rebounder and one of the NBA's best shot-blockers. More detrimentally, he'll be forced to orient his scoring more to the perimeter, which exacerbates his questionable shot selection and awful outside touch. Smith's a decent passer in the lane, but hardly the dynamic playmaker Detroit was hoping to pair their big men with.

Instead of solid playmaking, the Pistons got Brandon Jennings. The only plus to this signing is that they got decent value out of watching Jennings plummet all summer while team after team passed on him. It ends there. Jennings has shown flashes of brilliance, but painfully little development since his NBA debut. Put simply, he's a shoot-first point guard who doesn't shoot well, and has frequent attention lapses on both sides of the ball. It's unclear whether the added talent around him will be of benefit or detriment to his game, but Jennings will have to make both serious adjustments and improvements to be what Detroit needs at the point.

Dumars was once the NBA's front-office Heisenberg, but a decade has passed since he cooked up that '04 title team, and it has slowly eroded at his hands; trading players too soon (Chauncey Billups), holding onto them too long (Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince), and spending every available dollar in a manner that ranged somewhere from "questionable"  to "anarchist". He's done it yet again this summer, denying Detroit a shot at both the Lottery - maybe he was just afraid of an '03 repeat - and the second round of the Playoffs. Hiring Rasheed Wallace as an assistant was by far the most productive part of the offseason.

6. There will be a record-low number of coach firings
Normally, most NBA coaches are riding a carousel of employment Russian Roulette, trading their profile and high pay for alarmingly low job security as the most frequent scapegoat for bad teams. This season should be anomaly to the trend.

Not only have many of the League's worst teams recently re-tooled, but with more embracing the fact that they're going to suck this year, there will be less pressure on GMs to make in-season changes (read: fire the coach before they're next). Most coaches that were on that cliché "hot seat" last season were let go, either due to their insubordination (Lionel Hollins) or incompetence (Vinny Del Negro).

Add it all up, and I'm lining an over/under of three firings this season, which in the NBA is a complete fucking miracle.                                      

5. The Cavs will begin The Redemption
It's been three years since The Decision rattled Cleveland to the point of fiery James jersey genocide in the city's streets. There's no need in reminding anyone what LeBron's been up to since then, but the Cavs have been stuck in the rebuilding hole that losing the NBA's best player for nothing will tend to dig.

Look for them to crawl out this year; Kyrie Irving's evolving into a top-tier player (at least on offense), has a promising scorer/defender flanking him in Dion Waiters, and enough talented big men that Cleveland could make the Playoffs even if Andrew Bynum and Anderson Varejao aren't completely healthy (and really, who's betting they will be).

Adding another #1 pick to a solid young core only gives this team options going forward if Anthony Bennett's development can turn valuable assets (Tristan Thompson, Varejao) into tradeable pieces that can further round-out this team.

Injuries are certainly capable of derailing their progress, but only long absences to multiple key players should keep them from postseason contention, and the serious strides that signal them as a team on the rise.

4. OKC will make a big move; It will be questionable
If one team is quietly panicking right now, it's the Oklahoma City Thunder. Two years ago they were what the Cavaliers dream to be; a young core on the fast-track to greatness. Barely a year ago, they were the precocious Finalists bound for revenge. Now, they appear to have regressed after trading James Harden for a season of Kevin Martin and spare parts, and watching him become one of the NBA's Top 10 players.

Despite having the League's most devastating one-two punch in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder must also face the reality that with Harden and now Martin gone, they're the only two players on their roster who can create their own shot. And while they're both incredibly good at it, it's doubtful whether an this roster can meet OKC's elite expectations with such little firepower.

While they can masquerade behind their awesome fans and the confidence of two superstars, the truth is that this team is likely a move away from regaining its title ambitions. Sam Presti has never been one to shy away from pulling the trigger, but his track record with trades isn't exactly impressive; the Harden trade was an obvious bomb, but Presti's other big move - trading Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins - robbed them of the money they could've given Harden without necessarily making them any better.

Fortunately for Presti, there are enough teams in Tank Abbott mode that Perkins' two-years-left whale could net decent help if packaged with some of picks and prospects OKC has stashed. Unfortunately for Presti, everything he's done to dissolve this team has forced fans and critics alike to rethink the praise they gave him for putting it together.

3. The Knicks will completely implode
There's just too much potential. Last year's regular season was a serious miracle for New York; getting through 82 games with the East's second best record, clear of any outright mutinies or JR Smith suspensions.

It all came apart in the Playoffs; the Knicks were exposed as a defensively inept squad whose high-variance, long-range offense could catch unprepared teams off guard, but was much less potent against a good defense who could key in over the course of a series. They flamed out in the second round. And then, of course, JR Smith got suspended.

What New York did in the offseason - in strict James Dolan tradition - was attempt to solve the problem by lighting money on fire. They gave away three draft picks and Steve Novak for a spot-up shooter who's paid three times as much as him and shoots about half as well. Not only is Andrea Bargnani likely the NBA's most overpaid underachiever, but a prime candidate for "Most Likely to be Assaulted by Carmelo Anthony Mid-Scrimmage". In addition, the Knicks brought Metta World Peace on board (obviously) to pacify a locker-room that was already avoiding a Chernobyl-grade meltdown in mere ignorance.

With so many catalysts added to an already-volatile reactor under the constant pressure of the Gotham media and the ever-thickening development of Melo's inability to get to the Finals, book Nets tickets if you're going to New York this year and watch this disaster unfold through the media at a safe distance.

2. The Clippers will have the West's best record (and worst Alternate Jersey)
This is how you respond to Playoff disappointment. Not only did the Clippers make affordable adjustments to enhance the utility of their deep bench, they canned the lunatic overseeing it in favor of one of the NBA's best coaches.

Doc Rivers bring more Playoff experience as a player and coach than the Clips' entire roster, and should immediately instill a more confident, competitive environment with this team. The additions of JJ Redick and Jared Dudley give them added firepower on the wing that won't compromise their sketchy team defense, which should generally improve under Rivers' tutelage.

With OKC in reverse, the Spurs on cruise control, and Memphis relatively in neutral, L.A (seriously, the Lakers are the "Other Team" in my mind right now) is my pick to snag the West's coveted #1 spot.

1. The Heat will Three-Peat
More on that in a moment...

EAST STANDINGS                        WEST STANDINGS                 
1. Miami Heat                                    1. LA Clippers                            
2. Chicago Bulls                                 2. San Antonio Spurs                    
3. Indiana Pacers                                3. Houston Rockets
4. Brooklyn Nets                                4. Oklahoma City Thunder            
5. Atlanta Hawks                                5. Golden State Warriors              
6. Detroit Pistons                                6. Memphis Grizzlies                      
7. Cleveland Cavaliers                         7. Minnesota Timberwolves              
8. New York Knicks                          8. Dallas Mavericks                      
9. Washington Wizards                       9. New Orleans Pelicans                
10. Toronto Raptors                           10. Denver Nuggets                      
11. Milwaukee Bucks                         11. Portland Trailblazers
12. Boston Celtics                              12. LA Lakers                            
13. Orlando Magic                             13. Sacramento Kings                
14. Charlotte Bobcats                         14. Utah Jazz                              
15. Philadelphia 76ers                         15. Phoenix Suns                          
                                                                                                     
East Finals: Heat over Bulls
West Finals: Spurs over Clippers
NBA Finals: Don't worry, I'm getting to it...
                                                                                             
 ALL-NBA:  1st - Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, LeBron James,Dwight Howard
                     2nd - Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Paul George, Kevin Love, Marc Gasol
                      3rd - Stephen Curry, Tony Parker, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Brook Lopez

Rookie of the Year: Trey Burke
In this shallow of a draft that played so unpredictably, it's anyone's guess who could snatch this award. I'd bank on the player who looks the most NBA-ready and will have the biggest role with which to make an impact on an awful team that will give him every opportunity. That would be Burke; the Jazz's de-facto starting PG.


Most Improved Player: Enes Favors
Ok, so technically I'm cheating here by picking two players, but the potential-dripping Jazz frontline of Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors that was stashed on the bench for at least a season too long is finally free to do their thing, and a safe bet is that one, if not both, will make significant leaps.

While questions linger about their ability to complement each other over longer stretches and under more defensive attention, both are 3rd-overall picks who have been effective in small roles and have been given nowhere near enough leash to fulfill their potential.


Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich
Like the award above, COY is more or less predicated on defying expectation and doesn't lend itself well to predictions. Every season, people expect the San Antonio Spurs to officially fall over the hill and out of the NBA's Penthouse. Every season, they still remain a viable threat that came off life support after a 2011 first-round ousting to put in serious title runs, coming closer to victory this June than any NBA Finals victim.

So although it should more or less be expected of San Antonio to be in the fight for the West's #1 spot the entire year, I'm picking Pop. He's by far the NBA's best bench boss, and in the mix for this award every season; it's more plausible than any other prediction.


Sixth Man of the Year: Luis ScolaThe Pacers' bench was among the NBA's worst last year, particularly on offense. Fortunately for Indiana, not only do they welcome back likely trade-bait Danny Granger as a dangerous scorer, but also swiped Scola - one of the NBA's most criminally underrated players - from Phoenix's liquidation sale.

Scola's spent years shuffling through the revolving rebuilding door, but now lands on a good team with a role he's quite over-qualified for but can be highly impactful in. Whether or not Granger is dealt, Scola's a dangerous low-post scorer and a workhorse on the boards and can slide to the five in against smaller lineups. He passes well for a big, and has the unselfish work ethic that should mesh well in Indy.


Defensive Player of the Year and MVP: LeBron James
Getting the obvious out of the way, the MVP's is LeBron's to lose, and the variables working against him (an unlikely long James injury, transformation into a revolutionary defender from Kevin Durant, or utter miracle from Fringe Contender X) aren't very strong.

What's more of a solid toss-up is whether the voters will collectively come together, get over the "This will put him on Jordan's level!!!" nerves, and recognize LeBron James for what he is: the most effectively versatile defender in NBA history. He can capably guard a higher percentage of the League's players than anyone ever. He can take over games on D in several ways simultaneously. He's finished fourth and second in  voting the past two seasons, and regardless of anything he says, knows that completing the MVP-DPOY-Finals MVP Triple Crown's something Jordan never did, only Hakeem Olajuwon ever has (1994), and verrrry few ever will.

This season it's got a solid chance of happening, because as his fundamentals have solidified and he can make plays on D not only with his freakish athleticism but through position and anticipation, it's only getting harder to ignore.

Which brings me back to Miami and their 3-peat; which appears to be the best Finals prediction (over the Spurs, for the record) as they won a title last year playing some of their worst possible basketball for amazingly long stretches of that seven-game series. Time and time again, they've found ways to not only make up for their roster's many holes, but kick into an almost-unparalleled realm of survival mentality whenever they're back into a corner. We've seen it during a plethora of 2nd-half double-digit comebacks during their 27-game win streak, two years in a row vs. Indiana in the Playoffs, and against a Spurs team that spent last spring playing within inches of flawless basketball. They're truly at their best when it matters most, and if Mike Beasley doesn't manage to involve Chris Bosh in a drug arrest during the Playoffs, they should be hungry for a 3-Peat and could be playing well enough crush any of the teams that made contender moves, but failed to solidify themselves as the new team to beat.

Here's to a new NBA Season. Cheers.





Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Beautiful Goodbye: The Andrea Bargnani Story

Throughout their 20-year history, the Toronto Raptors have developed somewhat of a crappy reputation.

Long-abandoned as the NBA's lone Canadian franchise, their history of transactions and acquisitions reads like horror novel of bad contracts, squandered superstars and a general lack of addressing the team's glaring issues. Naturally this hasn't translated to much success; the Raptors haven't made the postseason in five years and have exactly one series victory on their tally. Even the Grizzlies - against whom they were once relatively superior - have found a new home in a smaller market and turned themselves into a consistent Playoff threat.

Raptors management often subtly played the "Canada" card in the media, claiming difficulty luring top players North of the border. Regardless of any subjective geographic handicap, they made mis-step after mis-step to bury themselves three-fold by ruining their financial flexibility, forcing overpaid, under-performing and incompatible players to share the court, and destroying any glimmer they had of making their team seem appealing.

One of the more notorious fumbles was the drafting - and subsequent extension - of Andrea Bargnani with the first overall pick in 2006. Ranked behind near-sure-thing big man LaMarcus Aldridge almost universally, GM Bryan Colangelo reached for the upside-filled Italian, seeing the next Dirk Nowitzki (you know, because that had panned out for so many other teams).

The next few seasons didn't go incredibly for Bargs; despite being a legit 7-footer, he hardly seemed built as the NBA center he was impersonating. Though he showed a reasonable skill set, was extremely quick for his size, and occasionally went off from long range, Bargnani was an awkward liability on defense, the boards, and in pasta sauce commercials.
Still though, Colangelo was committed, and in 2009 gave his young underachiever $50 million over five years, saddling the Raptors financially and beginning an apparent mission to get himself fired.

Though it took four years, Colangelo was axed this spring in awkward fashion, a dismissal partially ensured by Bargs' horrific regression over the past two seasons. Fortunately for the Raptors, their ownership's new CEO had enough clout to pry Masai Ujiri - reigning Executive of the Year - away from the semi-implosion in Denver, and Ujiri in turn made an immediate impact, cleansing the Raptors of Bargnani's burdensome final two years (and $23 million) by shipping him to the Knicks.

While pieces acquired in return do little to help the Raptors immediately, they've shed themselves of a painful mistake and given themselves more traction on the road to rebuilding by taking on $4m less in guaranteed salary next season and picking up two draft picks. This move comes as not only an encouraging sign of things to come from Ujiri, but a minor miracle given everything that had to come together for it to happen:

- They needed to get rid of Colangelo, who appeared to have too much personal investment in Bargnani to admit "Ok guys, I screwed up here, time to cut losses" and deal a bad contract at face value.

- They had to hire a savvy GM who's used to on-the-fly rebuilding; enter Ujiri who blew up the Carmelo Anthony Nuggets without ever making them a worse team. For that to happen, they needed front-office mogul Tim Leiweke at the helm of Maple Leaf Sports Entertainment - the Raptors' ownership group - to give some credibility to a wayward franchise.

- There had to be a fit for Bargnani; a team with a pragmatic purpose for a floor-stretching big who might see some potential left in him. The Knicks ran a system centered around spacing the floor and launching jumpers, which a player of Bargs' skill set would fit very well into in a perfect World. Not only would he be able to slide over to a more suitable "stretch 4" role, but have Tyson Chandler behind him on defense.

- This team had to be desperate to shake things up, which the Knicks certainly are. Anything short of challenging the Heat in the East Finals would've come as a disappointment for this team, and their frustrating loss to the Pacers rang alarms about their scoring consistency and defensive toughness.

- Moreover, this team also had to play in a big market and be able to absorb a mammoth contract for a player who - at best - might be a 2nd scoring option and could wind up hurting more than helping their cause. Hell, with $73 million committed to six roster spots next year, why not snag one of the NBA's most overpaid employees to round out the lineup?

- And finally, the people running this team had to be foolish, so as to be committing so much money under the circumstances detailed above, surrounding both their team, and Bargnani's career thus far. New York owner James Dolan needs no introduction, while Raptors fans will surely remember current Knicks GM Glen Grunwald as one of the men whose front-office ineptitude helped build Toronto's proud legacy. Given the relevant factors, only someone flirting with idiocy would sign off on acquiring this guy at this price, knowing it probably won't work, and that moving him before the 2015 trade deadline will be next to impossible. I have Christmas as the over/under for Carmelo freezing him out of the offense.

So while the Knicks try to figure out how to work a jumpshooting forward who can't hit jumpshots or rebound into their lineup, the Raptors are left with a more manageable position to adjust their flaws. Dumping Bargnani came not only through several strokes of luck, but as a positive first note to this new era for the Raptors. Gone is the most visceral reminder of their scarred past; no longer will fans have to watch Bargnani suit up for them and listlessly betray the team that gave him so much money and opportunity with his casual, disconnected play.

That he was let go so swiftly has to have this team's fanbase - for once- feeling good about what's to come next.

Saturday, June 22, 2013

Top 9s: Thoughts on the Finals

Whoa.

That was an NBA Finals.

A heavily-contested seven-game exchange of haymakers between two iconic juggernauts.

Not only a title, but legacies were on the line, and it played out beautifully.


While a few of the series' games didn't need a second half, and Miami spent most of it mired in inconsistency, it was the adjustment-fueled unpredictability of this matchup, and its ability to deliver a dramatic turn of events at every crucial juncture, that made it so compelling. It went kind of like this on a basketball court (with Dwyane Wade playing the role of Joffrey as he ridiculously nicknames his new sword "Heart-Eater").

I'm still trying to wrap my head around Game 6. I've spent countless hours watching basketball, and can't confidently say I've ever seen a more crucially thrilling 4th quarter, one that will probably go down as the most definitive moment in LeBron James' legacy. He'd spent most of the game playing passively; pulling up for jumpers when he was ice cold and displaying a similar lack of touch when he seldom got to the hoop. Then the 4th came, as if it were pre-ordained by Erik Spoelstra telling Doris Burke "We need our best defensive quarter of the season". They got it, erasing a 10-point deficit with LeBron not only putting up several massive plays on D but - ironically stripped of his hairline-guard - channeling Ether Mode out of nowhere, scoring at will, saving his team's season and altering history. 

Without that performance, the Heat's season (and when I say "Heat", I basically mean LeBron) becomes a footnoted failure along the NBA annals; their boisterous and flamboyant union of superstars in South Beach would ultimately be looked upon as a bust of style over substance and hype over hoops. James boldly re-wrote what seemed to be another off-chapter in his career; he solidified the next level in an already Top-10 All-Time career, and swiftly changed the popular offseason discussion from "When will he just get it consistently in the Finals?" to "He might go down as the best basketball player ever". That LeBron came out guns blazing from beyond the arc in Game 7 (I was waiting for him to turn around and shrug as he jogged downcourt) was a fitting cap to a memorable Playoff run in which he solidified himself as, if nothing else, the most dynamically dominant player in NBA history.

It would be ignorant not to tip a hat to the Spurs (although it's definitely possible that the backup point guard of the Houston Rockets was the biggest contributor to their Playoff run). Every year they continue to defy father time and popular opinion, and were a transcendent, historic takeover by an unstoppable player away from a 5th Pop/Duncan title over 14 years. That's fucking impressive. Way may not have even seen the last of them yet, but how San Antonio manages to continue performing at this level is one of sports' greatest complex marvels.

There's plenty more to be said about this series, I could go on for days. To spare my fingers - and your tolerance for my rantings -  I'll keep it to nine things that stood out to me (other than LeBron) in these Finals, a Championship Edition of the Top 9s:

9. Manu's Officially Fallen Off
The guy who was the easy bet as the first Spurs' star to slow down indeed has confirmed early indications that San Antonio's "Big 3" are now a busted tripod. Game 5 was a renaissance to his glory days, but it came almost as a shock (if such a thing was possible in this series) and was evidently a flash in the pan, as Ginobili returned to inconsistent, selective scoring over the last two games, while turning the ball over like bed sheets in a Vegas hotel. Kawhi Leonard is  unquestionably now the Spurs' third-best player (more on that in a moment) and Popovich/Buford should give serious thought to how much they can invest long-term in the Free Agent who performed so inconsistently down the stretch of the postseason. At 35, with a total of 18 pro seasons under his belt, it's a virtual certainty he won't be getting better. 

8.Javie the Hutt
NBA officiating is an extremely difficult, high-pressure job with massive implications; one that isn't made any easier when the context of fouls - the most common call in the game - can often change almost nightly. The inconsistency in officiating's been an issue plaguing the Playoffs annually, as warped calls distort the game's context and affect outcomes (like Ginobili's potentially series-altering no-call at the end of Game 6). 

Luckily a very smart individual at ESPN decided to toss the recently-retired Steve Javie a headset and let him help bridge the gap between reality and that strange alternate universe officials occasionally drift off into where only superstars shoot free throws, and a player grimacing excitedly after a big dunk can get him T'd up. Javie's well-spoken, impartial and offers not only an experienced perspective on the difficulties of the job that can lead to blown calls, but serves as a sort of watchdog against officials who might get over-zealous and try to take over games with the whistle. At least on national TV. 

7. Erik Spoelstra "clicking buttons"
As an addicted dedicated online poker player, I've gradually become immersed in a vast lexicon of strange vernacular. One of the more self-explanatory terms - "clicking buttons" - refers to a player who's just randomly splashing around without any sort of consistent strategy, waywardly tapping  his mouse and keyboard, making wild bet sizes with junk hands as though he's excited just to see what will happen.

This seemed to be Spo's M.O. throughout most of the series, as Popovich continually out-coached him and he responded by frantically throwing different lineups at San Antonio in an almost trial-and-error fashion, before finally arriving at the Game 6 4th-Quarter set that spaced the floor ideally for LeBron and was quick enough to rotate against the Spurs' passing.


He failed to develop a scheme to contain Danny Green for five games (if it happens for one game, it's probably the players' fault, if it happens for five it's definitely the coach's), randomly went small with Mike Miller instead of Shane Battier, took too long to realize the Birdman just wasn't flying against Timmy D, before benching him and then re-inserting him in a panic for Game 6 only to have basically the same thing happen.  Miami won this series almost in spite of him as Pop exploited the sideline matchup in ways Spo couldn't counter.

6. Dwyane Wade might be my least favorite player in the NBA
When the Heat assembled this trio, Wade was the squeaky-clean one; the GQ-rated, ring-having King of South Beach, who'd "brought them together" and hadn't left a city/country of pissed off fans behind him. Times have certainly changed; LeBron's stolen the keys to the team and city from Wade, who's developed a troubling pattern of arrogant, annoying behavior while oscillating between past and future versions of his basketball ability.

He whines constantly to the refs, probably more than any other NBA player. He makes dumb public statements, like he should be paid for the Olympics. He plays with an irritating sense of entitlement that isn't his anymore; a common ball-stopper who launches predictable, out-of-sync mid-long range jumpers as though they're his bread 'n butter, and when he plays like crap, he deflects it on LeBron or screams at his coach


Dressing as obnoxiously as he often chooses to while attempting to give himself an equally dumb and narcissistic nickname as a promotional tie-in for his new shoe deal don't make him any more likeable, nor does the fact that he dates a woman who's hypnotized any man (and probably more than a few women) who's seen movies on BET.

What's most disappointing about Wade is that he generally behaves with about 20% of the poise, maturity and charisma that he had before James and Bosh showed up, like he's regressed to an immature child that needs to show off for his friends. A guy who was once respected league-wide has become a pretentious crybaby while his consistency continues to slip. And his team played better without him when it mattered most. 


5. Kawhi Leonard is really, really good
While Ginobili and Wade represented the fading legends of these Finals, Leonard used the series as his launching pad from "Alpha Role-Player" to "Probable All-Star", teaming with Boris Diaw to confound LeBron for large stretches, while scoring in a variety of ways, and both passing and rebounding extremely well for a player his size.

A recent Grantland article chronicled the Leonard/George Hill swap as both were playing a crucial role for teams in the Conference Finals and it appeared to be a mutually beneficial move. The added layer was that Indiana had almost traded for Hill the previous season, but backed out to keep their draft pick and use it on some guy named Paul George who just reeked of NBA potential. Having George developing on the wing made it easier for Indiana to part with Leonard's rights, allowing the Spurs to acquire a player whose career ceiling - after these Finals - doesn't look much different from PG's lofty potential.

Everything about him impresses me; not only the variety of ways in which he can impact a game, but how he keeps a constant even-keel. He always stays cool and plays within himself, accepting whatever is asked of him by his team and performing with the poise of a veteran. At 21. It seems remarkable, but then you remember that these are the Spurs, that the words "character guys" and "draft steals" are the core of their franchise, and it becomes perfectly standard. 


4. Like a Bosh
Bosh's Finals performance - much like Wade's - was a generally disappointing inability to get himself going consistently. He put up a donut in Game 7 (yeah, he didn't score at all) missing easy jumpers and drawing the ire of Miami's fickle crowd after they had to watch Tim Duncan just completely sodomize him for 36 minutes of Game 6. But in between those two disasters, he delivered on three plays - two blocks and an offensive rebound - that respectively indirectly and very directly, saved Miami's season.

As simple and amusing as it is to poke fun at a guy who makes himself such a target consistently, I kind of feel for Bosh, as he's had to make massive sacrifices for this team. Not only did he slide from a first to third option in joining the Heat, but eventually was asked to step outside his comfort zone and position, basically playing a pseudo-center to help keep the floor spaced with shooters, the lane open for James and Wade, and as many runners on the floor as possible for the Heat's suffocating, uptempo play. The result has sometimes often left Bosh in compromising positions on defense and the offensive glass against larger, longer, more physical players, not helping his reputation around the league as somewhat of a, well, a bitch. While Bosh is hated on and joked about, he still plays a vital role on this team; one that now has "not one..." but two titles, so he's not getting it all wrong.

Case in point were his uncharacteristic blocks of the Spurs' attempts to steal back a game he kept alive with his team's Playoff life flat-lining. Bosh had every reason not to own that moment - he'd been getting worked all game, played awful for most of the series, and was never particularly known as a strong defender or mentally fortuitous competitor. But he, against most odds, still managed to come up with unexpected contributions at the most vital of times. So for now, he should hold his head high and be happy. For once. At least until something like this happens
.

3.The Legend of Danny Green

Danny Green's unconscious 3-point explosion over the first five games was a perfect storm of applicable catalysts. A very good shooter was often the last focus on D, and not only moved impeccably well on cuts to create space for himself, but happened to play on a team where the "extra pass" was a given.

What he did to Miami was spellbinding, not only in the obvious impressiveness of his record-shredding run, but the Heat's complete and utter inability to just stay at home against him, and eliminate a looming liability. Spo was tossing so much help in the paint against Duncan/Parker that Green could just break across a baseline underneath all the action and emerge on the other side with 10 feet of openness.

All it really took was the simple rationalization that "We've left this guy open and he's been their
leading scorer so far. He can't really create for himself or others off the dribble, so maybe if we just   acknowledge how he's burnt us so far and stop leaving him on the wing, he won't be as effective".

The results spoke for themselves. Green failed to develop any kind of consistent rhythm, settling for mostly-contested jumpers and looking like a small child lost at the mall whenever he put the ball on the floor. He shot a combined 2-19 over the Final two games while scoring fewer total points than he had in any lone Finals contest. Miami won both those games. Obviously the former didn't completely cause the latter, but it was certainly a massive contribution, and an obvious adjustment that came late - almost too late - for Miami. 


2. Effort vs. Execution
The simplest way of breaking down these Finals is that they were a war of constant adjustment with both teams putting each other in precarious positions - San Antonio by playing near-flawless basketball for large chunks of this series, and Miami by working their edge in athleticism when it was most critical.

I use the words "most critical" very carefully because through a lot of this season, particularly the Playoffs, it seemed as though Miami needed to be backed into a corner in order to truly play their best basketball. They often seemed almost arrogantly nonchalant in their lack of investment; everyone watching knew this team had a higher gear. To their credit though, they shifted into that gear consistently when they had to, and though their season had to be threatened several times, the brilliance with which the Heat played under the chaos of urgency, time and time again, was unreal.

As simple as it is to say the more talented team won, it would be a fallacy. Miami's Big 3 united and all played championship basketball for exactly one game of this series. Both Wade and Bosh were below 100% as they struggled to take the heat off LeBron (pun completely intended). What kept them going were King James, and a rotating cast of supporting players being thrown through Spoelstra's Finals Lineup Randomizer Machine, and each came up big at times.

And when it came down to it, Miami was able take enough hits and not only stay on their feet, but summon the will to take it to the next level against a team that gave them every reason to think they couldn't win.


1. The End of the Era
Lost amid the excitement of the Finals was that this would be David Stern's last trophy presentation. The legendary commissioner has grown the NBA's popularity immeasurably since taking over in 1984, re-engineered pro basketball into a marketable, exciting product. There couldn't have been a more fitting farewell for him than this ratings-smash of a seven-game, superstar-filled, thrillingly media-hyping series.

When Stern took over as commish, the NBA Finals were shown on tape delay as a more-than-slightly-racist American public was having trouble buying into a league of coked-out mostly-black athletes who brawled constantly and played for stats and contracts over wins and championships. Today - as he not-so-subtly pointed out before handing over the trophy that will one day bear his name - the Finals are watched by many millions in countries around the World. Much can be said of his tactics, but it's largely because of Michael Jordan David Stern that his beautiful game has grown and flourished, to be appreciated by so many globally; its dynamic popularity a reflection of its true entertainment value.


And so Stern rides off into the sunset (well, he doesn't officially retire until next February, but it has to be assumed Adam Silver will begin sliding into his new role) his run capped by an epic blockbuster he can proudly look upon as having fostered through decades of hard work. As basketball fans, we should be thankful for Stern. And for these Finals. It was one of the best ever, and a privilege to watch. 


Saturday, June 15, 2013

Media Day: A Tribute to Gregg Popovich

Being a card-carrying NBA media member would be a pretty cool job.

Having not only a behind-the-scenes look at all the action, but the ability to interact with players and staff, and get the scoop on everything from a critical late-game play to who lost the most gambling on the last team flight, is a pretty enviable way to cut a check for a lot of people reading this (not to mention the one writing it).

Of course with every job comes drawbacks, and if you're a reporter who covers the San Antonio Spurs or any team they happen to be playing (let's just say you're Gary George of the Inland Valley News ), then your job will, by default, expose you to the wrath of Gregg Popovich.

Pop's always been a firm believer that dumb questions require like answers, and unfortunately for any press member trying to pick his brain, he finds just about every morsel of quote-bait thrown his way insulting to his immensely superior intellect. He trolls hapless questions from sideline reporters (see below) as they try to awkwardly force conversation mid-game, and when he looms above from the podium afterwards - particularly following a loss - there's sure to be dismissive responses rained upon those below.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       


Popovich's post-game pressers are as entertaining a sideshow as exists in the NBA. Almost routinely, queries of varying dubiousness are brushed off with glib sarcasm and requests for better questions, as reporters seemingly walk on eggshells to avoid displeasing him. While this might give Texas-area beat writers nightmares, it's an added layer of humor for NBA fans, and a refreshing contrast to typical "in the box" media interaction.

Pop's as much of a multi-facted threat on the podium as Tim Duncan is in the post; not only will he pull no punches as he unloads as much (or little) of his true thoughts on any topic, but he delivers them with an astonishingly blunt matter-of-factness that comes across as equal parts condescending, mystified, and unintentionally hilarious. He'll spend several minutes demolishing hopeful suitors in dry monotone, and just when you think he's an emotionless asshole, he'll drop a quick one-liner and flash a quick smile that lightens the entire mood and makes one reporter's week.

You could call Popovich's brash response to a mandatory aspect of his job arrogance, and you'd probably be right. But the simple truth is that he probably deserves to be. The consistent excellence that the Spurs have performed with during his tenure is a testament to just how well he understands all aspects of successful basketball. Sure, San Antonio got lucky landing Timmy D (and lucky as in not only fluking a bad season due to an Admiral injury, but then defying the odds in the lottery, and doing both in the same year one of the most can't-miss prospects ever is atop the draft board), but every move made since by Popovich and running-mate RC Buford has been an intelligent, carefully-measured maneuver to get the most out of Duncan's career, and the fact that they're vying for a fifth title in 14 years - never having missed the Playoffs - speaks for itself.

Every evolution of this Spurs quasi-dynasty has been shrewdly-cobbled through ridiculous Draft steals (Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, apparently Kawhi Leonard), and a solid mix of athletic youth and veteran role-players, acquired only if their skills and mentality fit the Spurs' system and allowed them to operate more seamlessly and consistently than any team in professional sports. The man keeping everything flowing smoothly together clearly gets basketball on a level higher than we do, and he doesn't have time for our stupid fucking questions.

Sure it might not be nice, but it's often really funny. So unless we're the ones on the other side of his mic, it's a show worth enjoying.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

2013 Finals Preview: Are the Heat Hot Enough?

In 2007, a then-Cavalier named LeBron James dragged a pitiful Cleveland roster through a shallow East Playoff bracket, as its lone star, to his first Finals; a showdown with the San Antonio Spurs. What ensued was a swift, abrupt lesson in team execution as the Spurs swept the Cavs in demoralizing fashion. LeBron would never return to the Finals with Cleveland, a team he ultimately deemed wasn't to his standards.

Fast-forward six years, several MVPs, one Decision, a one-way ticket to South Beach, and two Finals appearances later, LeBron is suddenly getting those "Cleveland" feelings again, his brilliance being contrasted by disappointing play from those around him. Despite this, he finds himself back in the Finals, and sure as the sky's blue and the dirt brown, waiting there for him again are the Spurs. Some things change, some things stay the same.

One such thing; David Stern consistently dodging disaster. Rumblings of referee incompetence were forcing a Game 7 that could potentially commit a Red Wedding-style massacre on his final Finals' ratings as commissioner, but the Heat stung a decisive win against the superstar-less, small-market Pacers, moving on to battle the Spurs in a matchup that's really about more than this season's title.

For Miami, it's a validation of what they've constructed. This season's team was Small-Ball at its apex;  a pressure-filled flurry of transition alley-oops and multiple-pass diversion plays that epitomized the NBA's emerging skill-over-size trend. A win in this series would bolster their 27-game win streak and last year's title; it would put them among some of the truly memorable teams on a historic level. This is important for Miami because the Decision-fueled hype of Summer 2010 set the bar on an unprecedented level for this team, and anything short of historic resonance will be seen as a failure of not only what they put together, but how.

For the Spurs, it's a chance to resonate on an even greater level. They've spent the last 14 years, in the face of the largest fanbase of on-the-low hatred in professional sports, quietly, methodically, arguably becoming the greatest dynasty in the modern era of professional sports. A fifth title in as many Finals appearances over such a stretch with the same coach/superstar combo would be an unprecedented feat in any league, and would further pad Tim Duncan's already Top 10 All-Time resume.

For the NBA it's a very marketable, star-filled clash of Old vs New School; one with two evenly-matched, highly-skilled and well-coached two-way teams who both present several matchup issues for each other, and can not only dictate but adapt well to a game's change in tempo. In other words: this series is guaranteed not to be a flop (we've seen enough flopping in these Playoffs), and has the potential to be truly memorable.

This Finals obviously has to start with LeBron James, the reigning MVP/Finals MVP/possible Transformer who can dominate games in more ways than any player perhaps ever. He'll be the focal point of this series, both on the court and in the social mediasphere, and his team's chances appear to hinge heavily on his ability to maintain what I call "Ether Mode". The good news for him is that he's just defeated a team that between Paul George's dynamic coverage and Roy Hibbert's "Verticality" was ideally equipped to defend him. The bad news is that the Spurs are capable of not only suffocating defense, but thrive on half-court offensive efficiency that would've easily buried the Miami team that showed itself for most of the Pacers series; one that will not only challenge their team D much more, but be far less willing to cough up the ball for the transition buckets the Heat thrive on. So LeBron's isn't in for a cakewalk, as he'll have to not only excel on offense consistently, but potentially cover several defensive mismatches .

If Miami can take something away from the fact that a one-way team with an absolutely pitiful bench just dragged them to a seventh game, it's that they faced real adversity and a sense of urgency for the first time all season and overcame it. Not only were Bosh and Wade just awful, but drawing the ire of LeBron, who took public pot shots at his teammates as the Heat's chemistry - which as had been schizophrenic prior to this season - appeared to be coming undone. The response to the threat of elimination was an immediate return to their winning style - exploiting and attacking Indiana instead of falling into their halfcourt tempo - and an emphatic win that righted their momentum. Which is good for them because they'll need it; The Spurs are playing extremely well as a team, and are more rested than Gregg Popovich ever could've plotted for at this point in the season.

Tony Parker's most recent performance was a filleting of an NBA All-D 2nd-Teamer, so Miami has to be immediately concerned about how to contain him. Mario Chalmers is long on the perimeter, but kind of slow. Norris Cole is quick and energetic, but not an incredible fundamental defender. Dwyane Wade is a phenomenal defender on his best day, but today (or at least most of the past two weeks) is far from that day.
Parker's ability to pick apart Miami off the dribble will highlight both strengths and weaknesses of their team D. Miami has very little rim protection, and if Parker is able to get to the hole at will, he'll make life difficult for them by forcing a defensive collapse on the paint - that San Antonio is all-too-well known for picking apart with crafty passing and the infamous Corner Three. To the Heat's credit, they're perfectly-built to play that kind of high-movement, switch-heavy scheme on D, and will ensure more resistance than Memphis did.

The ability of their post tandem to handle Tim Duncan also has to be a huge concern after Chris Bosh played like one of those flamingo lawn ornaments for most of the East Finals. Timmy D's not only going to be fresh, but exploit every single edge Miami gives him; their coverage will have to be multi-faceted. He's enough of a scoring threat to warrant double-teams, especially against the Heat's front line, but an equally dangerous passer both within and out of the post. Again, this primarily attacks a fundamental weakness of Miami's, but they're well-equipped to defend the secondary by doubling down on Duncan and rotating quickly enough to cover open shooters/passing lanes. Interior passing will be a serious issue for them however; Tiago Splitter tore the Grizzlies apart when Gasol sat and the Arthur/Randolph combo couldn't hold water against Duncan's dual threat, and Miami's similar (only perpetual) lack of size could leave them more exposed against a team whose bigs both pass and finish extremely well close to the hoop (In fact, don't be entirely surprised if LeBron ends up covering Duncan for some stretches if he's got fouls to give).

Manu Ginobili will be the Finals' obvious Wild Card; while he's been a hobbled shadow of himself as the Playoffs have wore on, the week+ off will have given him a chance to recharge and bring a new level of energy and pressure to the Heat perimeter. Miami's periodic offensive dysfunction in the East Finals went largely unpunished when Indiana's bench was struggling to pass to the right team, let alone put the ball in the basket. Manu at his best is a one-man firing squad who can ignite a second unit by himself and is savvy enough to create hoops for any teammate, and his potential highlights another issue for Miami: Depth.

San Antonio can wear teams down by out-manning them, going the whole way down their bench with players tailor-fit to specific roles and matchups. Conversely, Miami's bench reads like a gradually-declining list of the same skill sets, each player not only becoming more ineffective, but cobweb-ridden during their playoff run. Joel Anthony is a prime example of a player who might see extended minutes (to stop the bleeding Duncan's likely to inflict), but will force the Heat out of their comfort zone and into a 4 on 5 offense.

So what does Miami have going for them?

First off, Chris Bosh should be in a slightly more comfortable state, and the same can be said for Dwyane Wade. Both were pitted against larger, more physical defenders against Indy, and Bosh in particular drew the brunt of Hibbert's abuse in the low post, and the hit his ego took obviously permeated into his confidence on offense as he struggled consistently (which sort of explains why he was so happy when he finally managed to hit a shot in Game 7, as seen to the right). While Duncan's obviously far more skilled than Hibbert, he's also primarily a finesse player, one who caters to Bosh a bit more. Indiana took Christopher so far out of his comfort zone on one end that he couldn't establish it on the other, and the result was some of Miami's worst ball of the season.

Wade was likewise ineffective, appearing a step slow and out-of-sync with James, partly due to Indiana's League-best defense, as well as a (relative) rift between the BFFs, with the two taking not-so-indirect shots at each other through the media. Game 7's win was surely enough to squash whatever was going on there. Ever since the 2nd-half turnaround in Game 4 of last year's Indiana series - the one where Wade and James were human portrayals of the CPU that just won't let you win in Madden or 2K - their occasionally mercurial on-court synergy has usually been at (or near) its best when most needed, as though they know they have a gear above everyone else and confidently engage it. These Finals will require it consistently.

While the Spurs have a depth advantage, Miami certainly has the talent and athleticism to force their hand with it. Their frenetic play on both sides of the ball can wear teams down and rack up fouls, which will be a very dramatic shift from the pace Memphis just allowed San Antonio to get so comfortable in. They'll be forced to chase a lot more on D, battle for plenty more defensive boards, and be giving up an athleticism edge at almost every position, which mandates hard work regardless of how small Miami is. While the Spurs have the deeper bench, Miami's supporting cast has the higher ceiling, and if guys like Chalmers and Battier are able to get into consistent rhythms and make defensive impacts, San Antonio could be in trouble.


Having the most complete player in NBA history (let's just kill this "Potential G.O.A.T" talk and call him what he is) leading your team is obviously a significant advantage; a guy who can not only win a game by himself, but can do it in several ways simultaneously. Kawhi Leonard will spend the most time covering LeBron, but despite being an excellent defender, is ill-equipped to contain James on his own - a trait he shares with all humans. The Spurs' front line lacks that "lane-clogger" (think Roy Hibbert or Tyson Chandler) that's been so fatal to LeBron's penetration, which means he'll be much more comfortable going to the hoop off the dribble - which is by far when he's most dangerous. Send too many players towards a basket-bound King James, and Miami has enough spot-up shooters to rain threes all day; it's pick your poison (though the way they've shot it at times through these Playoffs, Pop might be able to swallow the latter). There's also his defensive presence; he could cover Duncan or Parker if needed, and won't be tested nearly as often by Leonard as the George/West combo, leaving him more in free-safety mode than the Spurs would like, especially against their pick-and-roll.

Miami will also have homecourt, which is massive for a team in a closely-matched series who plays as well at home as the Heat do. While South Beach residents have never been accused of being the most knowledgeable, dedicated, or enthusiastic NBA fans around, something has to be said for Miami's league-best record at the Triple-A, especially in Wade's case (what, like you wouldn't play with more confidence if you'd slept with Gabrielle Union the night before). The first two at home will be important tone-setters for a team that just came off a challenging series that shook its momentum severely; their ability to get back into their comfortable pace and push the Spurs will likely decide the outcome of this series.

San Antonio has plenty of intangibles playing to their edge, but the painful truth for them is that their ideal style of play caters too well to what Miami thrives in. The Spurs love to shoot 3s; Miami defends them extremely well. They love to abuse teams on the pick-and-roll, Miami has LeBron James. They love to bury defenses in the paint with Parker/Duncan help and move the ball several times for open shots, which Miami is probably better equipped to counter than any team in the NBA. On the other side of things, the Spurs don't have the size or all-around athletic toughness to bully the Heat like Indiana did; Miami did just get dragged to the edge of elimination, but again, by a team that's ideally built to defend them, and the only one to go all 7 rounds with them over their 3-peat as East Champs. What San Antonio also doesn't have - more to their demise - is LeBron James; a better player than in 2007, with a better team and a sharper killer instinct, which in this close of a matchup should be enough to keep Miami on the throne this season. Some things change, some things stay the same. Heat in 7.