P.E.D Watch 2014

It's time for another fond Basketball Banter tradition; the annual scrutinizing of which players have re-invented themselves to start this season, and essentially birthed the race for this season's Most Improved Player award.

It's time to give due to those who've put in work over the summer (or added an aggressive, undetectable training supplement to their regimen), expanded their games, and taken on greater roles while forcing the rest of the NBA to take notice.

It's time for P.E.D Watch 2014:

Anthony Davis
I mean, really, what else is there to say about the guy at this point. He's been an omnipotent force all over NBA courts this year. At 21 years old, he's years away from his prime. It's very possible that he's either a super-athletic alien cyborg or Hakeem Olajuwon's son. This is greatness in the making.

Evan Fournier
Count me among the many who face-palmed upon learning that the Magic had given Arron Afflalo back to the Nuggets for this unproven Frenchman. You can also count me among those with his foot partially inserted into his own mouth. Fournier's proven himself a capable starter (albeit on a certain lottery team); a dangerous shooter and surprisingly cagey defender for a frail kid from a country known for surrendering. His numbers are up across the board, and he'll continue to grow with the rest of the Magic's young core.

Darren Collison
The battle to fill Isaiah Thomas' pint-sized shoes as the Kings' starting PG was supposed to be a war of attrition, but Collison won the job out of training camp and never looked back, dropping a career year in his Sac-Town debut. No longer stuck behind Chris Paul or in the confines of an Indiana offense, Collison has set new bests in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. Even with their franchise in an awkward purgatory with a wrongfully-fired coach and an owner openly talking about playing 4-on-5 defense, the Kings can be confident that they nailed this signing.

Klay Thompson
While he may have already been worth that offseason extension the Warriors cut for him, Kassius Klay has leveled up so far in 2014. Part of this has to do with the extra touches and floor space that David Lee's absence has afforded Golden State's offense, but Thompson's responded by not only raising his scoring average, but becoming a more diverse offensive weapon - a better playmaker who's also becoming a threat off the dribble and getting to the line at a career rate. The Dubs are the NBA's best team thus far, and Thompson certainly deserves some of the blame.

Draymond Green
Of course, not to slight Mr. Thompson, but he's not even the most improved player on his own team

so far this year. Green has assumed the de-facto starting PF spot, and played so well that it's highly unlikely he'll lose it when Lee returns. Dr. Dray's been a dangerously effective and versatile swing-forward; strong and long enough to contain larger bodies, while still mobile and agile on the perimeter and containing pick-and-rolls. He's averaging career-highs across the board and enabled the Warriors to find perhaps their ideal scheme on both sides of the ball.

Donatas Motiejunas
While we're on the topic of injured power forwards, credit has to be given to the Rockets' Don Dada, who's stepped up considerably with Houston's front line in shambles. Motiejunas has put together a strong 2014 debut, showing flashes of stardom in his new starting role and perhaps giving Daryl Morey yet another appealing trade asset with which to manipulate opposing GMs. Motiejunas has not only proven his crafty post game, but played with an increased toughness, and an improving awareness that will only get better as his consistent playing time rises. He nails the eye and numbers tests, and only if his role diminishes significantly when Terrence Jones returns will he not contend for this award.

Jimmy Butler
I can't really make up my mind as to whether this season's outburst from Butler has been more overdue or unexpected, but in any case it's damn impressive. His scoring and shooting averages have leapt up alarmingly; no longer just a spot-up 3-and-D guy who doesn't shoot very well, Butler's become a dangerous mid-range threat off the dribble. His status as Chicago's offensive alpha-dog was hardly ascribed - with Derrick Rose's return and Pau Gasol's arrival - but he seized the opportunity and now looks like one of the NBA's most complete two-way players.

Marc GasolLast but not least we have Marcy Marc; a complex addition to this list who may not get the attention he truly deserves as an MIP candidate, simply because he's also firmly in the running for MVP. There's an unwritten (but fairly well-anchored within NBA circles) rule that a leap from starter to star is more difficult and relevant (and thus in this award's context, more valuable) than a rise from nowhere to relevance. Thus it should logically follow that a sudden rise from stardom (considered by many to be the NBA's best all-around center) to the league's pantheon deserves an adjusted score as well. Gasol's upped his scoring to almost 20/game, with his assists close to his career-best. He's accounted for a higher clip of Memphis' offense while still providing an elite defensive foundation. Most of his numbers across the board are on par with his personal bests; Gasol is a nimbler, more confident version of the beast he always was, he stays within the flow of the game and never "does too much" to the detriment of his team. His steadiness as a facilitator has been key to Memphis' all-around improved offense, which is the main reason they're so dangerous this season.

The Start of Something Good

I usually try and avoid writing too much at the beginning of the NBA Season for 3 reasons that all stem from the same root - the small sample size of games we've seen:

1. Opinions and analysis are fickle and changing at an NFL-like rate
2. It's much harder to make educated observations and not use terms like "so far" and "it seems"
3. Many assertions are totally liable to turn upside-down and make me sound like an idiot

That said, with nearly a month gone by in the season, and 10+ games for all teams, we're beginning to see what trends are emerging with serious traction, and will play a relevant role in how this season plays out. The good news for NBA junkies is that most of it points to this season being one of heavy competition - at least outside of Philadelphia, which is where I begin my rants about some of the things that have stood out to me this season:

The Sixers are Historically Awful
Philadelphia was clearly shook after gracefully losing 26 straight games last year and not getting the Draft's top pick, or even a guy who'd play his rookie season for the second straight year. So they gutted their roster even further and now pose a very realistic threat at breaking the NBA's all-time mark for the worst single-season record at 9-73 - also held by the Sixers.

I don't like using my own NBA knowledge as a benchmark for a team's relevance, but have to in this case. I know very little about most of Philadelphia's roster (and don't feel compelled to since most of them will be out of the league soon enough) which says a thing or two about just what they're fielding this season. I take Michael Carter Williams' open letter at face value; they are  trying, it's just that their talent level is woefully outmatched by every other team in the league.

This roster's worse than the one the the that preceded it, and unfortunately for the Sixers (or perhaps fortunately for their clear motives) there aren't two handfuls of teams chasing Lotto balls this year, which makes for far fewer winnable games.


The Kings are This Year's Suns (Or are the Pelicans?)
Last night's NBA slate saw an intriguing encounter between two West upstarts seeking to break onto the Playoff scene. One of them was highly probably to ascend the conference's stiff hierarchy this year, while the other has instantly vaulted itself from lottery doormat to early-season powerhouse.

Let's settle something quickly: the Sacramento Kings aren't as good as the season's first couple of weeks suggested. Granted, they beat up on some tough competition, but have shown cracks in their consistency over the past few games, allowing New Orleans to overwhelm them offensively in last night's third quarter, while themselves losing their offensive rhythm and playing sloppy, turnover-prone ball. The same sort of meltdown cost them a seemingly-inevitable W against Memphis last week. They should be in the mix for a lower-tier Playoff spot however, with both their team defense and ball movement having improved noticeably from last year, and DeMarcus Cousins playing like a can't-miss All Star.

New Orleans will also contend for the postseason barring a serious injury. Their roster is undeniably shallow, but they field a killer 7/8-man rotation that can contort to pretty much any size opposition, and score at absurd rates when they're all clicking (and Tyreke Evans isn't in pseudo-LeBron mode). Which brings us to:

Anthony Davis Probably Isn't Human
Quick question: Who holds the NBA's all-time record for single-season PER?

You'll have to go diggin' in the crates for the answer, all the way back to Wilt Chamberlain's 1962-63 season: a PER of 31.82. For the record, he averaged 45 points & 24 rebounds per game that year.

He's closely followed by a slew of seasons in the 31 PER range by somewhat-notable names like Michael Jordan. LeBron James, and Shaquille O'Neal. Kevin Garnett's best season was a 29.44, Dirk Nowitzki's a 28.06, and Tim Duncan's a 27.06.

Keep that in mind when noting that 21-year-old Anthony Davis is currently on pace for a PER of 36.16, or in basic English, the most efficiently dominant NBA season in history by a considerably wide margin. 

The Thunder Are In Trouble
My title here was going to be "Thunder Can't Catch a Break" but that would just be, as politically-correct people say, 'too soon'.

Two broken bones - one in Kevin Durant's foot, the other in Russell Westbrook's hand - have put OKC's season in serious turmoil, as their offensively-challenged teammates struggle to keep pace in the meantime. Even Perry Jones couldn't stay on the floor once he emerged as the unlikeliest of point-producers.

Whether you want to blame God, Lil' B, or some Sonics fan with a Clay Bennett voodoo doll, the Thunder are suddenly in a deep hole when you consider how competitive the West has become. Last year, in a nightmare conference that was still softer than this year's version, the 8th seeded Mavs lost 33 games. By that loose standard (which should be give-or-take about this year's mark), OKC will currently have to win 65% of its remaining games just to make the Playoffs.

That number will only amplify the more they dip beneath .500 with fewer games remaining. Westbrook is still around two weeks away from returning, and there's been a conspicuous lack of updates surrounding Durant's progress. Any delays to their rehab, or extended periods of acclimation, will likely sink the Thunder's season.


David Lee Should be Dealt
A lot has been made about the Warriors' roaring start to this season, particularly their having been able to do so 'without David Lee'. Well, allow me to posit another take on things: The Warriors are better 'without David Lee'.

Golden State's M.O. is pretty clear: They're a strong defensive team who relies more offensively on floor-spacing and wing scoring than any other roster. A truly strong defensive  team is a lot like a Greek phalanx, with each part protecting not only itself, but another; one glitch in the armor exposes the whole unit. The Warriors already field one "glitch" in Steph Curry, who gambles too much and is bullied by bigger guards. In addition, Lee - rebounding aside - is, by some metrics, the very worst post defender in the NBA. That's 40% of your 'strong defensive team''s starting lineup being somewhere between "sketchy" and "complete fucking liability" on defense.

Meanwhile, Lee's replacements - Marreese Speights, and lots of small-ball sets with Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes - have provided the Warriors with more toughness and mobility on D, and better offensive spacing; they patch up Lee's gaping defensive shortcomings while conforming to the team's scoring M.O. This is to say that Lee's net detriment to the Dubs' defense is greater than his marginal benefit on offense. It's pure addition by subtraction; we saw it in 2013 when they over-performed without him in the Playoffs, and we're seeing it again now. It should become an issue when Lee makes his return.

The Concern About Cleveland was Misplaced
First of all, the obvious: Cleveland is absolutely abhorrent defensively. Everyone suspected as much with their leaks at PG and PF and no semblance of a post-bound rim protector, but the results have been rock-bottom. Their 104 oppg is the worst mark of any likely Playoff team, and their offense hasn't yet reached the consistent level of omnipotence it was pegged for (though since their six-assist game it's definitely turned a corner).

But there's room for this figure to improve: first, the Cavs have faced an inordinately high number of good offensive teams; only two of their opponents so far (Utah, and of course, the Knicks) rank in the League's bottom half scoring-wise. Second, their poor team defense should improve marginally over time, not only in welcoming back Matthew Dellavedova (by far their best-defending guard), but becoming more accustomed to each others' habits and deficiencies. Third, Cleveland holds a valuable trade exception, which will almost certainly be used to pilfer a rim protector from one of the many teams hoarding cap space like food before a nuclear holocaust.

The real problem: Cleveland is relying far too heavily on its Big 3, who presently rank 3rd, 4th, and 5th in minutes per game. This is bad for a number of reasons; not only does it make Cleveland more of a static roster that doesn't conform well to mismatches, but it obviously puts them an injury away from serious issues (see: Thunder, Oklahoma City). More damning, it wears down their stars for an expected Playoff run, which is terrible news since a) LeBron has more miles on his body in the last decade than anyone in the NBA and, b) Neither Irving nor Love has ever been to the Playoffs, and have no concept of saving something in the tank for the postseason grind.

How 'Bout Them Grizzlies?!?!
And then there were my beloved Grizzlies, atop the West at 10-1 after a miraculous comeback against the Kings, and total ass-kicking of Houston in a battle of the West's best. This comes as a surprise to many, but not necessarily myself, all bias aside.

Memphis was saddled by injury for most of last season, missing Tony Allen and two-way beast Marc Gasol for large chunks of the regular season. When healthy, they sported one of the West's best records, and then came within a Zach Randolph suspension hair of knocking off the Thunder in the first round.

This year they return the same suffocating defense, only with an added boost on offense, not only from the continuity of a revitalized Courtney Lee (a midseason addition last year), but the arrival of Vince Carter, who suddenly actually plays defense. As a plus, Mike Conley's becoming ever-more proficient as a scorer-distributor, and Allen's made up for his critical lack of shooting and ballhandling by becoming one of the NBA's best guards at moving without the ball, whether it be well-timed screens, or back-door cuts on sleeping defenders. This overall attack has made it much harder for opposing defenses to sag down on Gasol and Randolph in the post, which used to be an easy foil for the Grizzlies' offense (anyone who watched the 2013 West Finals knows this all too well).

So for those of you who seem to think another team is destined to rise to the West's penthouse, be warned that it won't be an easy entry. Whether it's the Warriors, Clippers, Spurs, or eventually Thunder who come knocking, this is a different iteration of the Grizzlies; a much more capable two-way team, and one who will play with a constant chip on its shoulder, in one of the NBA's most uninviting home arenas. I'm not prepared to call Memphis the West's undisputed best team, but if they're still here in April, don't act surprised.

Banter's 2014-15 NBA Preview

"Guess who's back in the muthafuckin' house..."


What's up everyone, hope your summer went better than Paul George's.

Banter took another prolonged sabbatical this offseason as I helped open up a restaurant and was otherwise heavily devoted to my traditional summer routine of Beer-BQs, cottage parties, Floatie Nation, and aggressive patio-surfing.

But as it tends to in Canada, the weather's grown crappier of late, conveniently coinciding with the buildup to an event I fiend for like a hyperactive child does Christmas morning: the start of the NBA Season. Pro basketball's return is a perfect excuse for me to me to spend more time inside, avoiding the eventual snow, wind and -20 abyss, while binge-watching League Pass like a perpetual Netflix series.

The NBA has its own prime-time drama's worth of compelling storylines this year; from LeBron's "Return" to KD's sudden injury (#BasedGodCurse), D-Rose's latest comeback, a loaded rookie class, and the Zen Master's attempt to rescue the New York Knicks. Anthony Davis will continue evolving into a MUTO, James Harden's defense will continue amusing us, and we'll be served up steady script material for the inevitable Kobe-Nick Young buddy comedy. We'll get to devise some "Lob City"-ish nickname for the T-Wolves, sweat a Western Conference that's somehow even more competitive than last year's, and rejoice that the Charlotte Hornets - albeit minus the pinstriped teal - exist again. Not to mention there's a wide-open race for the Larry O; the Spurs have plenty of hungry foes aiming for the crown.

So what can we expect amid all the excitement? Here's Banter's preview, starting with the Top 9 Bold Predictions for 2014-15:

DISCLAIMER: As Grantland tends to do, they beat me to the punch with a recent article that makes predictions about every possible angle of the upcoming season (33 in all). Unavoidably, some of their thought processes overlap with mine, but their logic did nothing to influence what you're about to read. Every prediction I've made here was drafted before their article was published. 

9. Dwyane Wade will begin unraveling

I placed this so low because it's sort of already started happening, but I see the next few months as the beginning of the end. Wade's played his career with the reckless abandon of an NFL running back, and as I'd seen coming miles away, the strain caught up with him sooner than any Heat "fan" had hoped. Even as LeBron's second fiddle last year, he was only effective when rested, and wore down disturbingly quickly as the Playoff intensity took its toll.

So what's to be of him now that the best player alive is no longer his running mate? He won't be able to take as many games off, and will be counted on more and more each night for Miami to remain competitive, increasing the demands on his body. He'll turn 33 before the All-Star break, and age is a much greater factor for someone with Wade's checkered injury history. There's several factors working against him concurrently; all added up, it could spell the untimely demise of a truly special player.


8. The Raptors will continue to rise

Being a Canadian, I by default hear more about the Raptors than just about any NBA team, especially now that they're finally relevant on the league-wide scene. I've faced many questions about whether they've plateaued with this roster, or whether they'll improve, and I'm highly convinced that their ceiling hasn't been reached for several reasons:

1) They'll benefit from the continuity of bringing back an almost identical rotation (swapping Lou Williams in for John Salmons is hardly a crucial shift). 2) They'll be playing with more of a purpose; an experienced squad looking to avenge a bitter playoff upset, rather than riding a momentum wave as a surprise overachiever. And most importantly; 3) With the exception of Kyle Lowry (who's never played better basketball), their whole roster still undeniably has growth and improvement to realize before hitting their prime.

They're young, they're hungry, and while we can't expect Toronto to finish any higher in the East (with the Conference's top 4-5 teams becoming much better overall), there's no reason the Raptors shouldn't be rising with the tide.


7. In-season job security among NBA head coaches will remain record-high

Last season's startlingly-low total of one axed coach leveled off this summer when more bodies hit the floor than the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan. Looking around the NBA, there doesn't appear to be many coaches left on the proverbial "hot seat". As noted above, many teams - the Knicks, Warriors, Nets, Bucks, Jazz, Cavs, Pistons and Lakers - have undergone coaching changes since April, meaning their new guys will get a fair bit of patience.

Elsewhere, there's plenty of coaches who will never, ever be fired (Pop, Thibs, etc), are doing very well in new roles (Jeff Hornacek, Mike Bundeholzer, Steve Clifford), recently survived a front-office shredding (Dave Jeorger), have the co-sign from rebuilding franchises (Brett Brown, Brad Stevens) or who probably would've been fired already if it were going to happen (Kevin McHale, Frank Vogel, Scott Brooks). So sleep easy, NBA coaches, there probably won't be many of you getting canned this season.

6. The Trade Deadline will be a dud again
Perhaps the dominant theme from this summer was the notion that the Free Agency period has almost become its own season, engulfing the trade market and making (most) teams far less anxious to pull the trigger on mid-season deals. That trend is almost certainly going to amplify in the coming months.

Thanks to the NBA's new multi-quadrillion-dollar TV deal,  the salary cap (as currently projected) will undergo far-and-away its biggest single-year increase in history next summer, giving almost every team cap room, and leading any player with wiggle room in his contract to opt out and cash in. The market is going to be absolutely ridiculous next July, so while a few contenders might be looking to tweak their lineups come February, the vast majority of teams will be biding their time and slow-playing their hands.

5. Rajon Rondo will be traded to the Houston Rockets

First off: Rondo's gonna get dealt this year, don't kid yourself. His recent trade request is the final nail in a coffin Danny Ainge had been slowly building for the past few seasons by dangling him at every opportunity. Rondo's injury last season (resulting in a temporary trade value dip) is probably the only reason he's still a Celtic. With Kevin Love off the trade slate, Rondo is the lone All-Star who's openly available right now, and if he's going to be traded (which he is) Houston is the most logical destination.

Not only do the Rockets fancy themselves contenders (though they currently have no chance in hell of even making it out of the Playoffs' first round), but they just took a step back this offseason, that included whiffing on several would-be star signings. They must be feeling somewhat desperate right now, and have enough assets to cobble together an attractive offer for Boston (something like Pat Beverley, Terrence Jones, a few of the shitload of draft picks they have stashed, and cash). They also have one of the most ballsy and persistent GMs in the NBA; they'll pursue this. Pairing Rondo with James Harden and Dwight Howard also makes sense on paper; a versatile PG who can quell Harden's shitty defense without depleting his shot count, and has a dangerous penetrate-and-kick game that fits Morey's "key or three" model very well.

4. The Indiana Pacers will miss the Playoffs; it won't even really be close

Toss up: what was the uglier tumble, Paul George's gruesome crash landing into a basket support, or the fall from grace Indiana's been in the midst of since last February? Already mired in an identity crisis that ruined last season, the reigning #1 seed lost George and Lance Stephenson, and will field easily the weakest offensive squad in the NBA this season.

This team will be comically terrible in its efforts to score; David West is their only consistent threat, and defense-belying Rodney Stuckey will likely see heavy minutes just to keep them afloat. Roy Hibbert can't be counted on, George Hill's unproven as a score-first guard, and Luis Scola was basically a Walking Dead extra for most of last year. Even if Chris Copeland comes out on some PED shit, it's going to be a painfully dull season in Indiana.

3. The Knicks' revival will get off to a slow start

Much like the Pacers will struggle to score, the Knicks will struggle to prevent their opponents from doing it to them at will. New York was atrocious defensively last season, and of course, addressed the problem by trading their former DPOY for a center with positioning A.D.D (Sam Dalembert), and one of the two or three worst defensive point guards in the NBA (Jose Calderon). Surround them with guys like JR Smith, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire (who've never been committed defenders), and Andrea Bargnani (not even going there), and there's no hope of them stopping anyone. Iman Shumpert can't do it all by himself. The Zen Master's rebuild looks more like a 2-3 year plan.

2. Anthony Davis will come very close to winning the MVP

There's a perfect storm of momentum drumming up this year that will almost lift Davis to the game's most exalted individual honor. First off, he's really fucking good, and getting better every month; he's going to absolutely wreck shit on both sides of the ball this year. Second, the Pelicans are going to be better than anyone thinks; they'll win 45+ games and are a rival injury away from being a Playoff Team in the West. Third, and I hate using this excuse because it shouldn't be valid, but there will inevitably be a wave of boredom bias from media who are tired of the LeBron vs. KD debate, and will look to inject new blood into the MVP race. As we all know, some of the voters aren't exactly the most enlightened minds, and will get swept up the hoopla regardless of how deserving Davis may be. It probably won't be enough to tip the scales, but it's gonna be damn close. 

1. The Spurs will repeat
More on this in a second...

EAST STANDINGS                                       WEST STANDINGS
1. Chicago Bulls                                                1. San Antonio Spurs
2. Cleveland Cavaliers                                      2. Los Angeles Clippers
3. Washington Wizards                                     3. Oklahoma City Thunder
4. Toronto Raptors                                            4. Memphis Grizzlies
5. Charlotte Hornets                                          5. Golden State Warriors
6. Miami Heat                                                   6. Portland Trail Blazers
7. Brooklyn Nets                                               7. Houston Rockets
8. Atlanta Hawks                                               8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Detroit Pistons                                               9. New Orleans Pelicans
10. New York Knicks                                       10. Phoenix Suns
11. Indiana Pacers                                             11. Denver Nuggets
12. Orlando Magic                                            12. Los Angeles Lakers
13. Boston Celtics                                             13. Minnesota Timberwolves
14. Milwaukee Bucks                                       14. Sacramento Kings
15. Philadelphia 76ers                                       15. Utah Jazz

East Finals: Cavs over Bulls                           West Finals: Spurs over Thunder

Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker
This one's a no-brainer. Easily the most NBA-ready rookie in terms of skill set and polish, Parker gets dumped on a decrepit roster (especially on offense) where he'll be the undisputed man. He's a heavy favorite for this award, and anyone who tells you otherwise is either being a contrarian or experiencing a mild seizure.
Contenders: Marcus Smart, Andrew Wiggins, Nerlens Noel 

Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis

As mentioned above, Davis is growing more into his immeasurable potential seemingly by the game. Watching his evolution is truly special (or terrifying if you're affiliated with any of the other 29 teams); he grasps such vast aspects of basketball stupidly quick, and shifts between them seamlessly like he's just discovered a cheat code in a video game. His specialty of course is making life hell for opposing offenses pretty much anywhere inside the arc. With Omer Asik now patrolling the low post, Davis is going get an absolutely mind-numbing amount of weak-side blocks this year, and many more off the lost fools who try to actually score on him. We're likely looking at the highest stocks average (word to Bill Simmons) since Hakeem the Dream, and for that, the Brow gets the DPOY.
Contenders: Joakim Noah, Serge Ibaka, LeBron James

Sixth Man of the Year: Isaiah Thomas
Now that the Suns finally came to their senses and paid Eric Bledsoe, Thomas figures to be a highly over-qualified backup as the third "starting" point guard on their roster. Though he's drastically under-sized and will only see minutes at the true PG spot, he's bound to work his way into a bunch of quirky Jeff Hornacek lineups, where he'll be an instant dose of scoring on a high-octane roster. So long as he and Dragic don't share the floor for extended stretches against attacking two guards (and there's fewer of them today than there's ever been in the NBA), it shouldn't be hard to make this odd PGx3 rotation work in the Suns' favor.
Contenders: Jamal Crawford, Pau Gasol/Taj Gibson, whichever Pelican winds up not starting

Coach of the Year: David Blatt
I always love (read: fucking hate) trying to predict this award because it's so subjective and results-oriented that picking someone this far in advance is a general waste of time. Usually, it goes to a coach who overcame a serious hurdle to have a successful season, over-performed greatly, or - as was the case last year - was so clearly head-and-shoulders above the competition that he had to be crowned. Gregg Popovich's much-deserved love-fest hit its apex with their much-lauded Finals romp last June; it seems pretty unlikely that he'll repeat while still basking in the afterglow of his finest hour. So I'm putting my money on David Blatt, because Cleveland's going to be very good, and anyone - LeBron or no LeBron - will look good filling Mike Brown's shoes.
Contenders: Tom Thibodeau, Stan Van Gundy, Rick Carlisle

Most Improved Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo
This is the year he makes a huge leap. He's got a full season of NBA play and conditioning under his belt, has figured out a fair deal about his capabilities, can focus on games instead of answering a zillion stupid questions about his hand size and his name's pronunciation, and has just been handed the keys to his team's starting PG spot by one of the position's all-time greats. The sky's the limit for a kid with such gazelle-like athleticism and diverse skill set, and 2014-15 should see it all come together.
Contenders: Anthony Bennett, Terrence Jones, Victor Oladipo

Most Valuable Player: LeBron James 
1. He's the best player alive.
2. Everyone and their grandma's back on his nuts after he came back to Cleveland.
3. The Cavs might have some adjustment issues at first, but are still a mortal lock for a top-2 seed in the suddenly-not-so-pitiful East.
4. Kevin Durant's going to miss the season's first month+ and will be shaking off his foot injury for the next few weeks after that.
5. Anthony Davis - explosion of momentum and dominance aside - isn't quite there yet.
6. I have as good a chance of winning this award as any remaining NBA player.
Contenders: Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant

All-Rookie Teams
First:  G-Marcus Smart, G-Andrew Wiggins, F-Jabari Parker, F-Aaron Gordon, C-Nerlens Noel
Second: G- Nik Stauskas, G-Rodney Hood, F-Doug McDermott, F-Adreian Payne, C-Mitch McGary

All-Defense Teams
First: G-Chris Paul, G-Tony Allen, F-Anthony Davis, F-Serge Ibaka, C-Joakim Noah
Second: G-Mike Conley, G-Kyle Lowry, F-LeBron James, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Marc Gasol

All-NBA Teams
First: G-Chris Paul, G-Russell Westbrook, F-LeBron James, F-Anthony Davis, C-Dwight Howard
Second: G-Steph Curry, G-James Harden, F-Kevin Durant, F-LaMarcus Aldridge, C-Marc Gasol
Third: G-Damian Lillard, G-Bradley Beal, F-Carmelo Anthony, F-Blake Griffin, C-Al Jefferson

NBA Champions: San Antonio Spurs

And, I mean, why bet against them? They have by far the best coach in the NBA, by far the deepest and most cohesive team unit, and by far the most experience down the stretch of the Playoffs. Through a combination of magic elixirs and Pop's playing-time constraints, they've combated the aging of their stars flawlessly. Their reigning Finals MVP is a timid giant-killer who's only scratching the surface of consistent dominance. And they'll be playing with plenty of motivation to send Timmy D off into the sunset with a title in what's surely his last NBA season.

Cleveland may get it together (though they're going to suffer heavily on defense), Chicago may hold it together (though a lot is going to depend on D-Rose's shaky knees and rusty jumper), the Thunder will no doubt dump Kendrick Perkins' expiring deal at the Deadline for a useful upgrade, and the Clippers might be a viable threat this year without the Sterling Saga distracting them at the worst possible time. But for now, I see the Spurs as the team to beat, and look forward to having a team prove me wrong, because anyone who beats this team over seven games will truly deserve the title.

Here's to another awesome NBA season.

Time Capsule 2014

The NBA is a relative newcomer to the realm of big-league professional sports.

Vs. its direct competition - the NHL, NFL and MLB - it debuted decades later, delaying the process of building a fanbase. Said process was further inhibited by a multitude of issues through its formative years; everything from the league's poor decision-making and the rival ABA's emergence, to drugs, brawling, and greater, longer-lasting racism bias from the public than in any other sport.The Playoffs weren't even broadcast live until the 80's; it wasn't exactly successful at times.

As a result, there's a large gap between today's generation and the NBA's past. Not only did the league's infrastructure not allow for much preservation of its history, but its presence didn't resonate as much culturally; society as a whole wasn't as connected to it. Both in artifact and anecdote, there's relatively little by which to remember the Old School.

Jump in the DeLorean for a few decades - both the NBA and technological ubiquity have taken a Hodor-sized growth spurt, creating a contrasting predicament: Suddenly, everything is caught on camera - whether those of TV stations, media foot-soldiers, or some dude with an iPhone outside IHOP at 3am. The noteworthy moments have been diluted by an onslaught of peripheral distraction. There's so much by which to remember the "New School" that it's nearly impossible to take it all in.

It's hard to tell at this point how future generations will remember the 2013-14 NBA Season; in what ways the passing years will distort what now are very vivid memories. Thanks to the internet, we're assured that these moments won't be lost, but in today's age where instant information from countless sources changes perspectives so rapidly, they could just as easily be buried and forgotten.

With this season fresh in the rear-view mirror, let's take a look back at the people, things, and ideas that stood out among all the fluff in 2014; filling up a hypothetical time capsule with what to remember the NBA by this year:

- a pair of KD VIs
Kevin durant left his mark all over the regular season, somehow adding another layer to his dominance as a scorer, while also taking his defense and especially playmaking to new heights. With Russell Westbrook down, he kept OKC at or near the top of one of the most competitive conferences ever all year. In a season when the MVP was LeBron's to lose, Durant grabbed it decisively and then re-wrote the book on awards speeches. A return to the Finals eluded him this year, but it's only a matter of time for this guy. He's that good.

(He needs a post-up game though, and that's another story, but speaking of which:)

- a copy of the April 30, 2014 edition of the Oklahoman

- Doc Rivers' vocal cords 
Rivers was a massive influence in his first year on the bench for the Clippers - helping to usher in seasons of vast improvement for both Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan - with whom he wore out his signature hoarse voice regularly. You can assume he also may have yelled at someone when he found out Paul George (apparently his daughter's boyfriend) got a stripper pregnant on the side.

- Derrick Rose's knee braces
Rose's supposed year of redemption got put on hold again, when his meniscus snapped 10 games into his much-anticipated return from ACL rehab. Shelved again for the season, he joined the already-injured Rajon Rondo in setting an unfortunate trend that plagued NBA one-guards this year: Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Jrue Holiday, Eric Bledsoe, Kemba Walker, and even heir apparents Trey Burke and Michael Carter-Williams were all stung by the injury bug this year.

- a bank statement in the name of Ovinton J'Anthony Mayo, showing frequent transactions at Carl's Jr. in excess of $100, between the hours of 12 and 6 am.

- a copy of Donald Sterling's Anderson Cooper interview
Because it really sums up all you need to know about this situation. Thank God Adam Silver the NBA's done with him. (OK so maybe not entirely done...)

- Luis Scola's hairband, coupled with a signed Andrew Bynum Pacers jersey
It doesn't happen too often that a single trade defines a season for both teams involved, or that Larry Bird looks like an idiot, but sure enough it all happened when his Pacers gave the Phoenix Suns Gerald Green, Miles Plumlee, and a draft pick for Luis Scola.

At the time, the trade seemed like a sage move, giving up two players who didn't fit into Indiana's scheme, for a guy who'd ostensibly help bolster their pitiful bench.

Then of course, Green and Plumlee caught fire for the Suns, whose entire roster experienced a breakout that took the whole NBA off guard before capturing its attention with a thrilling season. Meanwhile, Scola was a beacon of inconsistency all year for the Pacers; a word that suddenly began to define their whole team, and consumed their season in disturbing fashion.

- one of those sideline monitors used for referee reviews

- LeBron's black facemask
(I don't know why this was such a big deal, but it was LeBron, and it was, so it's in here)

- Kevin Love's 2012 contract (four years, $62 million, opt-out clause in final year)
Everything seemed good a couple years ago when The Love Below re-upped; initially the impression was that he'd taken a below-max deal, helping keep Minnesota's chequebook open to surround him with talent and build a contender.

Eventually word got out that then-GM David Kahn had stupidly lowballed Love, which only served to amplify the young star's open displeasure with the team's direction. Though this contract gaffe was one of many nails driven into Kahn's coffin, it still haunts the team after his firing; the Wolves listened to the rumors about Love's inevitable exodus build all year.

Love's almost certainly going to be dealt this summer, and Minnesota - already on the wrong side of a brutal fight for Playoff seeds in the West - will take a further step back. Few players in the NBA have a higher trade value, but he's the kind of guy you want to be trading up for in these deals, not the other way around.

- Pierre the Pelican's pre-facelift costume

- an Official OVO Lint Roller
And the microphone Masai Ujiri blurted the words "Fuck Brooklyn" into.

- Josh Smith's shot chart:                                
- a threatening letter to James Dolan
Surely thousands of these things have been written, it couldn't be that hard to track one down.

Phil Jackson's hiring appeared as a bright halo to Knicks fans amid the raging shitstorm that was their 2013-14 season; a storm so violent and damaging that it would've fit better in a Michael Bay movie than on a basketball court. Everything that possibly, conceivably could have gone wrong in New York this season did, and then Raymond Felton pulled a gun on his girlfriend. Good grief.

Regardless of Phil's levels of authority and involvement next season, Dolan's mere presence atop this team is a toxic reminder of how he's run the NBA's most valuable franchise into the ground in every possible way for years and years, embarrassing the league and disappointing the team's fans. Jackson will be severely handicapped by Dolan's post-dated ineptitude; well over the cap, with few assets and no draft picks to leverage, and in imminent danger of losing the best player they've had since Ewing's knees gave out.

The saying "If you build it, they will come" definitely applies to a city like New York and a name like Phil Jackson, but thanks to Dolan, no one will be able to come for a couple more years anyway.

- 'Life After Death' by the Notorious B.I.G
...oh wait, you mean the Grizzlies' Chris Wallace is a different guy? And that album has nothing to do with him surviving several house-cleanings in the Memphis front office? Shucks, my bad... 

- Kevin Garnett's Geritol supply

- Mann's Chinese Theatre-style hand-prints from Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo

- Kent Bazemore's warmup duds and bench towel

- This YouTube Tribute:


And This One:

- Rihanna's collection of Playoff ticket stubs

- a strand of hair from Anthony Davis' unibrow
(for potential cloning purposes)

- the Prozac prescription Gregg Popovich made some poor beat writer get after this happened.

- March's issue of GQ Magazine.

- a judges' Slam Dunk Contest scorecard, displaying a '2'
The Dunk Contest was in critical need of tweaking, and though that's exactly what it got this year, it somehow came out far worse. Everywhere: the confusing and simply stupid rule changes, the use of Samsung tablets instead of the judges' classic scorecards, featuring more of Nick Cannon than actual dunking, and then pulling the plug on itself just as things were getting exciting. John Wall sort of, maybe won ('Dunker of the Night' really doesn't have the same ring as 'Champion') but pretty much everyone involved in this mess lost somehow.

- a disco ball
Because Dirk was groovin' this year. In a different sense, so was Larry Sanders.

- an array of Lance Stephenson memes

- a Charlotte Bobcats promotional pamphlet (RIP)

- Shawn Marion's left shoelace
(and the fifty thousand dollars it cost JR Smith to untie it)

- a collection of Dwyane Wade's suits
Because he spent far too much time on the bench wearing them for the performance he put up in the Finals. After sitting a third of the season to rest his legs so he wouldn't suck so much down the stretch again, Wade teased us with a couple dominant stretches against Brooklyn and Indiana, then completely crapped the bed against the Spurs for the second straight year. His absence left LeBron to battle seemingly by himself some nights, and all for his presence to have the same effect when it mattered most.

Then he blithely dismisses his milk carton showing saying he's healthy and just not playing well. Dwyane, Miami paid you 18.5 MILLION DOLLARS to spend the entire season resting yourself for one series. Get real.

- a plate of Continental Breakfast, as selected by Boris Diaw
Because after how he played in this year's playoffs, he can pile on as many croissants as he damn well pleases. Go ham, Boris.

- Kawhi Leonard's Finals MVP Trophy
When he's a perennial All-Star in a couple years (and I do mean 'a couple', as in 'this is happening in the immediate future'), this will be remembered as the moment he arrived.

- a serving of "BBQ perogies"

- Steve Kerr's awards ballot
Because the guy who voted LeBron for Defensive Player of the Year, as well as Tim Hardaway Jr for Rookie of the Year, and the guy who weeks later was the prized coaching hire of the offseason, are the same person.

- Shaun Livingston's season stats, with the "G" column highlighted

- Cleveland's Winning Lottery Combination
One way this season will no doubt leave its mark on history and resonate for years will be its impact on the NBA's more-than-likely adoption of some anti-tanking mechanism.

Left right and center, teams raced to the bottom, eyeing the upcoming Draft as their chance to get a headstart on a needed rebuild. Tanking stole an unfortunate amount of this season; it was discussed too often in media circles, but then almost half of the NBA was either actively doing it, or contemplating it at some point. It was a waste of 82 games for some fans, and ruined a large portion of the overall picture league-wide. This season was like a delicious pie that was baked in a crappy oven, burning a whole side of it beyond enjoyment.

Onward stumbled the Cavs, landing in the Lottery despite every attempt on their part not to. In the ultimate of ironies, they outdrew every team who tried to suck, landing the coveted first pick. It didn't exactly reward smart management, but few teams really 'deserved' their reward this year, which is why league policy towards tanking will almost certainly change as a result.

- Adam Silver's glasses
A big reason why ^those policies are likely to change is the decisive precedents set by Adam Silver in the opening months of his tenure as commissioner. Besides his legendary axing of Donald Sterling, Silver also took quick measures to re-tool the Dunk Contest (though that didn't exactly work), instantly canned the noxious ref reviews, and has pushed the issue on reform for minimum age requirements. It's been anything but a "get a feel for the job" type of debut.

Silver's an open-minded, forward-thinking tactician, who's clearly very intelligent, and has a strong appreciation for the game's history and evolution. While his ideas may not mesh well with everyone, he's far more progressive in his approach than David Stern had grown recently, which is definitely a good sign for the NBA's continued success.

- This Picture:












And This One:

...And This One:

...And Finally:
- the flags from the Spurs' title celebration 
This was a beautiful moment, for a beautiful team, who played a beautiful game beautifully. After digging through everything else, this was what really mattered this year. That they all bonded together in a display of their team's unprecedented international flavor was a poignant reminder of basketball - and the NBA - blossoming globally. For a league whose beginnings were challenging, and its past so disconnected from today, it was an undeniable sign that its future is headed in the right direction.
                             
                            

Team First - The Spurs Win Again

Last year's NBA Finals Review was one of the most difficult pieces I've ever written.


Difficult, not only in what it attempted to do - attribute merit and blame to a series that was far too close for either to hold much weight - but through the chilling afterglow felt by anyone who enjoys watching basketball. It was hard enough to come to terms with just what had happened, let alone admit it was over, or try to make reason out of it.

This year is a little different. There was no seven-game marathon, no high-stakes game of Adjustment Tag between Erik Spoelstra and Gregg Popovich, no violent swings that made us re-think who was favored about 200 times, and certainly nothing even remotely approaching the excitement of Game 6. This year it was simple: The better team won, and it wasn't even close.


These Finals were appropriately emblematic of the NBA's dominant trend this year: the immense divide in overall quality between the East and West. Miami looked poised coming into this series, playing confident two-way ball and getting the level out of Dwyane Wade that was glaringly absent this time last year. What too many people dismissed, perhaps myself included, was how little resistance Miami had; the Bobcats with their best player injured, the SNBA All-Stars, and finally a team that made the East Finals despite a several-month-long meltdown.

It was a different story out West; San Antonio faced a tougher foe in the first round than Miami had all postseason, and while the head-start Serge Ibaka's injury gave them in Round 3 helped swing their win, there was no questioning the Spurs were a machine. A finely-tuned, horsepower-loaded beast on high-octane, low-viscosity fuel; its parts worked seamlessly (that word gets overused in sports writing, but in this case it's almost an understatement).


The Spurs' execution on offense - all season really, but especially amid the pressure, emotion, strain, and competitiveness of the Finals - was as close to flawless team basketball as we've seen in today's NBA. 100 years from now, this game tape could be used to teach kids how to play the 'right way'. This was Gregg Popovich's 9th Symphony, his Flu Game, his The Chronic; his masterpiece.

The culmination of The System's evolution couldn't have been timed better. Not only did the Spurs get sweet revenge after last year's - as Phil Jackson put best - 'mind-numbing loss', but dealt us a brutally visceral reminder in this age of 'Big 3s' they inadvertently helped breed, that this is still a team game. Miami's stars took what many see as shortcuts to their places in history, and were ironically denied the all-important three-peat by a well-rounded roster that was everything people hated the Heat for lacking.

Lacking is more or less the word that describes Miami's whiff of a Finals. Everyone who doesn't wear #6 on their team came up short far more often than they could afford against the Spurs. "Follow my lead" LeBron famously said before Game 5. He led, but the whole "follow" part got screwed up a bit.

The simplest way to break this series down from the Heat's perspective is that when James channeled God Mode and took over completely in a way no other player alive can (sorry, KD) - as he did in the first six minutes last night and the second half of Game 2 - they could compete. Those brief runs of truly unique dominance were the only times Miami led in this series, and the only stretches where the Spurs didn't seem in complete control.

The rest of their team's performance was an insult to LeBron's all-around brilliance. Dwyane Wade was unacceptably bad after saving himself most of the year for this stretch run. Chris Bosh faded in and out of an offensive rhythm, and wasn't attacking the way a player of his caliber can and should. Super Mario played like someone spiked his mushroom with quaaludes. The team was at standstills on offense, missing open looks when they seldom came, and failing to rotate on D with the quickness and precision that in theory made them so dangerous against the Spurs.

Regardless of how flat Miami was, part of the credit - or maybe most of it - still lies with San Antonio, who executed so f***ing well, exploiting every single opening the Heat gave them. Gregg Popovich dismissed their Team Fire outburst in the first half of Game 3 as an anomaly, but for a team that also just set a Finals FG% record - against one of the NBA's 'best defenses', 'outlier' seems like a better word. That 71-point, 78% half was no accident.

Defensively, the Spurs did a great job of walling LeBron off from the key; helping immediately from the wing when he got near the paint, and forcing the ensuing open shooter to beat them from distance. It was a "lesser of two evils" gamble; a simple tactic Pop didn't have to adjust much because Miami failed to make them pay time and time again.

The Spurs played so demoralizingly well through the entire series, you could see it on the Heat's faces; even they didn't think they could win. When they summoned the will to engage Rampage Mode, it was a solo effort from LeBron, both too little and too late.

Last night's triumph was a poignant torch-passing for San Antonio. Their veteran stars led the way to one more title, but Kawhi Leonard - for the second straight year - took his game to new heights, using the Finals as a showcase for his elite-ceiling talent. Kawhi is an absolute killer; a clearly under-utilized potential superstar whose humility and unselfishness fits almost too well in The System. Most nights, he'll play completely within the team, deferring, sometimes to their detriment, as if he's not confident of his own obvious ability. When he feels empowered, and is attacking like he knows he's that good, he's one of the NBA's best players, which is why he's our Finals MVP, a mere three games after his lack of impact became one of the series' biggest subplots.


Leonard will become more of a focal point going forward for San Antonio - the leap many figured he'd make this year was difficult within such a balanced team system, but will only be harder to hold back after the display he just put on. The once-storied trade that sent George Hill to Indiana for Leonard's draft rights has become yet another savvy pillage by Pop and RC Buford; securing and developing another humble, dynamic star to lead them when Tim Duncan retires. Ironically at the same age Duncan won his first Finals MVP, in what could be Timmy's NBA finale, Kawhi was the re-birth. The team's in good - not to mention freakishly big - hands.

Of course this outcome weaves narratives of offseason uncertainty for both franchises; for the Spurs whether Duncan and/or Pop will return, and for the Heat whether anybody will. The only certainty for Miami is that Norris Cole and Birdman will be back, and Shane Battier won't (A side nod to Battier on a great career that deserved a better ending that this collapse; he was a living embodiment of every positive intangible cliché - "great locker room guy", "makes others better", "does the little things", "plays smart" - and is one of the most well-spoken and intuitive pro athletes ever. He'll be an instant hit on ESPN's NCAA coverage next year).

Trying to figure out what's next for Miami is a futile attempt to both read the minds of their "Big 3" (a term I use with strong hesitance after this series), and predict what Pat Riley may have up his sleeve. A whole bunch of things could unravel. Among them: LeBron could toss Bosh and Wade some of that Beats residual under the table send a message with a big pay cut; the kind Timmy D took (making less than half of what he was eligible for last year) that enabled San Antonio to keep this team together. Duncan has significantly scaled back his salary since signing an extension in 2007 for well below (>20%) the max. That deal was worth $20million/year; this year he made about half that. He's led by example for Manu and Tony Parker to follow the same lead, and directly enabled the Spurs' continued success.

The Heat have been schooled again, just as they were by the Mavs in 2011. This time the lesson was in sustainability, with the blueprint laid out by a team whose stars' unselfishness allowed them to keep contending as they aged. I know it was only four years ago that Miami's triumvirate of talent seemed almost unfair, but Wade - who was once both indestructible and unflappable - just blew his second straight finals, Chris Bosh is still forced out-of-position a lot and is variably dangerous, even LeBron finally showed signs of mortality this year, as his surroundings grew increasingly Cleveland-like.

This team's getting no younger, and their easiest means of returning to the throne is by following the example San Antonio just served them. All three of Miami's players can and should take pay cuts; because LeBron has more money than his great-grandchildren's extorting ex-wives could spend, the thought of Wade or Bosh making anywhere near $20 million next year gives me headaches, and it would be the best move for all three of their legacies going forward. Whether they want to heed The System's sage advice is up to them.

As for the Spurs, it's hard to see why anyone would want to leave this organization; especially someone who was as rejuvenated for this series as Duncan. He could easily play another year at this pace, but his fifth ring - the one he endured the longest wait for - would be the perfect way to ride out. As he sat at the podium last night, a proud dad with his kids on Father's Day, having accomplished virtually everything a basketball player could in his career, one could hardly blame him for walking away.

But this isn't about what's next for San Antonio yet; it's about the now. Congrats to the NBA Champion Spurs; no one deserved it more. 

They Meet Again...

The Irresistible Force Paradox is a complex philosophical query that seeks to address what happens when a so-called "unstoppable force" encounters an immovable object. Countless hours have no doubt been wasted pondering this hypothetical showdown - its origins date back to ancient China and Greece - but the NBA Finals are about to provide a very thorough case study.

The Miami Heat are by all definitions an unstoppable force; a trio of All-NBAers who, in their primes, banded together in an unprecedented attempt at historic glory. Regardless of our opinions about how competitive or legitimate their decisions were, they've delivered on massive expectations, making four straight Finals runs, gunning for a third Larry O.

Then there's the Spurs, the good 'ol San Antonio Spurs, who have been as close to an immovable object as exists in pro sports over the better part of the last two decades. Year after year, they somehow stiff-arm Father Time and throw together a deep Playoff run, this one culminating in a chance for revenge:

The 2013 Finals were, needless to say, an epic. Seven games of haymaker exchanges between two teams battling for legacy implications far beyond just one season's title. This year, the stakes have somehow been raised; a three-peat for Miami, and the Spurs looking to overcome arguably the most painful loss in Finals history.

Pretty safely said, no two other teams wanted to be here as badly.

While a few things have changed, the tale of the tape reads somewhat similar to last year (duh). These are two incredibly versatile lineups; comfortable in variety of tempos, and able to adjust rotations on the fly. San Antonio holds slight-to-significant edges in offensive execution, pace control, and depth, while Miami has the quickness and athleticism to selectively dominate both sides of the ball. Not to mention potentially the two best players in this series.

Dwyane Wade's performance will be critical, and all signs point to the significant rest he got all season paying off down the stretch. He was dominant vs. Indiana, looking like his 25-year old self, and not last June's hobbled mess whom the Heat prevailed almost in spite of. They're a different team when Wade's playing energetic ball, attacking off the bounce and keeping control of his defensive assignments. It not only takes pressure off LeBron, and gets them in transition together more, but opens up so many more options for everyone from Mario Chalmers to Udonis Haslem in the halfcourt, which will be another key to this series.

While Miami's Big 3 will all need to bring their A-Games, the same isn't as applicable for the Spurs, who boast the deepest and most role-suited rotation the NBA's seen in some time. San Antonio's deep enough that they can still win games in which Parker, Ginobili and Duncan are overshadowed, if guys like Boris Diaw and Kawhi Leonard are playing like All-Stars. Miami can't hope to win the bench/supporting cast battle, but the ability of guys like Chalmers, Norris Cole, and especially Birdman to neutralize the Spurs' depth advantage could decide this series.

Mr. Andersen might be counted on to play a bigger role (pun intended) with San Antonio likely to force Miami's hand with large lineups that disrupt their small-ball approach and feast on paint scoring absent an athletic protector (see; Western Conference Finals, Games 1, 2). Popovich knows that not only will he be exploiting Miami's lack of interior protection, but disabling them from playing the kind of Bosh/Lewis frontcourt that took Indiana's slower bigs and worse rotations out of the game. In this regard it's all about which team can strike the first blow, establish a rhythm, and force the other to adjust, an advantage neither seem inclined to concede right now.

Miami's dismantling of Indiana in Game 6 had as much to do with the Heat's great play as it did the Pacers' collective bowel movement on the American Airlines Arena floor. As a team, they're sharp and focused; LeBron is LeBron, Wade looks better than he has in two years, Bosh is as dangerous a third option as exists, and their bench - for all the talk of how they lost Mike Miller and fanned on free agency last summer - has been consistently strong through multiple permutations. It took two fluke games from the Pacers to avoid a sweep (Game 1's miracle where they got their most coherent team effort in months and everyone freaked out like the Apocalypse was coming, and Game 5 where LeBron was in serious foul trouble, which sounds weird just saying). The East wasn't exactly tough this season, but Miami was very close to a single-loss rampage to the Finals; they're playing more stable and confident heading in than they were this time last year.

The Spurs have been their own form of consistent juggernaut, only they've been doing it all season, and in a much tougher Conference. Their ability to dominate with a variety of lineups and threats was as much an asset as it was an impressive result; everyone's been kept fresh and can capably contribute depending on what Pop decides he needs. Even with Tony Parker's hamstring ailing, they've been firing on pretty much all cylinders, not only outplaying the Thunder, but doing it with about as many different lineups as could exist in one series.

While the Spurs' Big 3 still undoubtedly lead this team, it's becoming far less about them, and never moreso than this year. Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw have not only been hired guns offensively, but will be looked upon to repeat last year's stellar coverage on LeBron. Patty Mills will space the floor, tire Miami's defenders and no doubt sting them with a few three-balls, while Cory Joseph will play a big part if the Heat begin torching the perimeter themselves. There's no need to remind everyone what Danny Green can do in the Finals when he's ignored, and Marco Belinelli is just as liable. Tiago Splitter's been a stud, Aron Baynes is one of the best backups bigs around, and even The Red Mamba can make a cameo start in a small-ball set. That's this year's Spurs: you can get it from anyone, they don't care who it is.

As evidenced last year, this type of pass-heavy, balanced team play, while crippling against just about any team, isn't as much of an edge vs Miami, who play passing lanes notoriously well, rotate quickly, and often feature lineups without a single minus defender on the floor. They're kind of like a phalanx around the perimeter, they must be penetrated to be truly damaged. Unfortunately for them, Parker is a nightmare getting into the paint off the dribble (when he's at or near full strength), and the Spurs boast the NBA's best corps of big men, both in terms of passing and moving without the ball.

San Antonio can hurt Miami in a variety of ways; while their preferred style and tempo can play into the Heat's hands at times, they're definitely versatile enough to create other edges, which is the Spurs' greatest advantage in this series.They not only have more options in terms of dictating matchups and forcing adjustments, but Gregg Fucking Popovich deploying the troops. All apologies to Erik Spoelstra, who's proven his worth as NBA coach in about the hardest way possible, but he's the definite underdog of the Bench Boss Battle.

On the other hand, he has LeBron James, which really just speaks for itself. The guy's the most complete player in the history of basketball; one who despite having been a beast this entire postseason, has seemed almost slightly reserved by his standards, as if he's saving his best for when he knows it's needed. Playoff LeBron absolutely has another gear, which has to terrify any Spurs fan.

Trying to decide this series is pretty much impossible as is; these teams possess very unique and distinct advantages over each other, that they're both liable to apply in a high-stakes war of adjustment. Last year, they were so closely matched that it spanned seven gruesome games, the result leaving both thirstier for victory this time around. It's the unstoppable force clashing with the immovable object; there's logic behind both choices.

In this case though, the immovable object seems like the safer choice. The Spurs have been a 'rock' all season, playing devastating basketball through numerous injuries; Tony Parker's nebulous condition - while an obvious issue - is much less a concern for them than any other roster. The margins between these two teams are so close that we're almost certainly in for another seven-game bout, and counting on the Spurs to lose again - after coming so close last year and coming back as a better team - is asking too much.

Enjoy what has the makings of another legendary Finals. SPURS IN 7.

Breaking Down the $15 Dream Team Meme

In an age where you can't even get a pair of drinks at most bars for as much, $15 suddenly can buy you a starting lineup of NBA legends.

If you're an NBA fan who spends anywhere beyond a moderate amount of time on the internet, then you've no doubt encountered this inquisitive meme (or one like it), imploring you to hatch a literal All-Time Dream Team - only under a pretty stringent salary cap.

I have mixed feelings about these things, but have been confronted with them enough, especially this week - in an NBA Facebook group I frequent, on the website I write for, all over Twitter - that I've succumbed to the exposure. While the result is ultimately just another blurb in an endless line of fruitless Internet debates, it's a new spin on an idea that every fan has toyed with from time to time. Only its execution leaves a lot to be desired:

Conceptually it's kind of vague. I tend to over-think things, but it's hard for me to look at something like this and not ponder; "Are we getting these guys at their peaks, or as aggregates of their careers?", "Is this for one game? A Playoff series? A whole Playoffs? A season? Longer?", "Are we playing under today's NBA rules?" (ex; West has a 3-point line, Hack-A-Wilt is deployed regularly, and Jordan can feast on defenses that can't hand-check him), and so on. Maybe its intent was intentionally open-ended in that regard, but as with the NBA's award voting, this mostly just leads people to misinterpretation.

Things are further muddled by the rankings, especially at the four-spot. Advanced apologies to whoever created this, but anyone who honestly believes Karl Malone is the best power forward ever is either grossly misinformed, or in the intermediate stages of mental decay.

That the consensus best all-timer (Duncan) is in the middle of the scale at $3, murders the whole position's equity, and makes it hard to give much benefit of doubt to the other questionable price rankings (Erving over Durant, Drexler over Wade, Kareem over Russell, and basically the entire PF position.)

Furthermore, this system works on the flawed assumption that the value margins at every position are similar; that, for example, the power forward and center positions carry equal weight - Duncan would likely be the only PF in the Top-5 if those two groups merged - or that Michael Jordan should have the same price as any other player.

Be that as it may, I'm giving it a shot nonetheless, assuming that I'm drafting the player during his prime, for a Playoff series vs. this theoretical Draft Pool's 'B' Team, under current NBA rules. I'm also proceeding with the Power Forward rankings hesitantly; if someone's offering me Garnett for 1/5th Malone's price, I'm mildly petrified that it's the 2014 version.

With such a talent pool, you'd have to try pretty hard to spend $15 and screw this Draft up; it's kind of like playing the CPU on easy in 2K14. There's arguments to be made for a number of selection strategies; really these are the All-Time Greats, not the 2013 NBA Entry Class, you could shoot blindfolded and still come out OK.

THE DRAFT:

The obvious first move is to take Jordan (= $10 left). He's not only the best payer available at a capped price, but a must-leader for this team as a legendary competitive maniac. Bill Russell is the only player in NBA history to register on his level in that regard; every favorable team from this Draft should have one of those two guys.

I wanted to ensure that strong-to-elite defenders lined every position. If these guys are taking on a similar squad, there's no hiding anyone on D, and far less room for lapses. Several players here are spotty defenders, making them instant scratches (sorry, Dirk). I also leaned towards athleticism, versatility and intangibles in close calls; it's the small things that count big when the margins are slim.

Next up, I'm filling the other backcourt slot with Walt Frazier (= $9 left), an immense value at just $1, as a versatile offensive threat and, by reputation, the best defender of the PGs here. In a perfect World, having John Stockton as uber-facilitator on a team this stacked would be ideal, but Frazier is the more athletic option, and saving on him will allow me to splurge later.

Durant at the 3-spot (= $7 left). Just too great of a value at $2, and a perfect fit for a team where Jordan/Frazier figure to be ball-dominant. Playing alongside Russell Westbrook for the past few years, KD's grown accustomed to working with fewer touches, yet still finds ways to score at mind-warping rates. He'll stretch the floor, can contain anyone he's matched up with, and is among the least egomaniacal guys you could put on a team like this.

As noted, I consider the Power Forward rankings are wildly unfair. I'd also see it as unfair if I walked into Best Buy and they offered me a 70" TV for $300, but I'd likely take them up on the offer. As such, I've gotta steal Tim Duncan (= $4 left), again the best defender - not to mention best player - at the position. Timmy can operate effectively in the low or high post, slide to center if needed, and won more titles in first two seasons than the guys frivolously valued higher than him did in their entire careers.

That leaves me with 4 bucks to drop on Bill Russell, who would team with Jordan to form a yin-yang of ultimate competitive fire. Both were pathological winners, and enabled that desire to permeate to their teammates, only Russell's was administered through brotherhood and sacrifice, as opposed to Jordan's respect and outright fear. I'm steadfastly convinced that no team with Jordan, Russell, and three other all-timers could lose here, especially under the assumption that  this isn't Street Fighter, and drafting them would prevent my team from facing them.

Russ was no slouch as a ballplayer either, though his brilliance has been distorted by the decades since his career, and the lack of extensive video from his era. I've seen painfully few of his games; most of my knowledge of him comes through stats, archives, and anecdotes. But the unanimous verdict (I've never heard a dissenting opinion from an analyst or former player) is that his skills and athleticism were years ahead of their time, and that Russell stood alone as a teammate and winner.


Picture a cross between Serge Ibaka, Joakim Noah and Dennis Rodman, giving him all of their best traits while supplanting none of the bad. On steroids. He was by all accounts the greatest defender who ever lived, and a heavily underrated offensive player, who valued involving teammates over scoring himself, in stark contrast to many big men of his era (as a result, he won 11 titles in 13 seasons, also in stark contrast to many big men of his era). His facilitator mentality from the post would be vital to a roster with so much firepower, and if you thought Duncan formed a strong post-passing corps with Diaw and Splitter, these guys would be levels beyond.

He rounds out a unit that features the (most likely) best defender available at four of five positions, and while you can't expect to shut a team down in an All-Time All-Star Game, this is a devastating lineup on D, and would make life tough on anyone at times. They'd be deadly both in the halfcourt, and an uptempo, transition-style game, and have formidable length across the entire front line. No Easy Buckets.

Again, this mostly boils down to Russell and Jordan though. In a debate as abstract and complex as this one, it's easy to over-complicate things, delve into convoluted hypothetical matchups and synergies, and forget the basics: That these two on their own had impermeable wills to win, and that even against the top-tier opposition from this Draft, many of whom were denied championships at their hands, they'd likely be just as unstoppable together.

How the West Was Saved, starring Serge Ibaka

I was kind of shook last week when the NBA suddenly scheduled a Three Days Grace in the middle of the Conference Finals.

The abnormally-long break was an annoying cliffhanger, but apparently was just long enough for Serge Ibaka to summon some Deer Antler Spray superhuman will, revert a season-ending injury, and save his team's Playoff lives.

Ibaka was the difference last night, playing a superb game on both ends of the floor while noticeably hobbling at times. He came out blazing like Tony in Scarface's final scene, nailing jumpers from several midrange spots, and forcing the Spurs out of the containment scheme that had worked so well for them over the first two games. Serge's displaced defenders created lanes that OKC's scorers exploited all night, allowing them to get easy buckets in a game where Kevin Durant was decidedly pedestrian by his standards -25 on 8-19 -and Russell Westbrook was a walking (running) lost possession in the first half.

On the other end, his presence was also invaluable; not only did he block four shots, but he did an absurd amount of disruption for someone whose season was ostensibly over last week. He dissuaded San Antonio's deadly pick 'n roll, making life miserable for Tony Parker, and most others who came near OKC's basket. It was evident in the number of jumpers the Spurs were forced into, after feasting on the Thunder's interior defense for the first two games (only in the first half, Manu Ginobili doused the 3-point line in gasoline and lit a match).

The Thunder seemed undoubtedly more mobile and confident as a defensive unit working around Ibaka. That added effectiveness - San Antonio shot 39% in Game 3 coming off 57 and 50% - was a team effort, but unquestionably sparked by Ibaka's deterrence against penetration, and OKC's facilitated movement around him. The Spurs had to call audibles they otherwise wouldn't have, and suddenly, somehow, Popovich had no answer for Scott Brooks' Random Lineup Machine.

That the Thunder have several lineups that give San Antonio problems has seemed lost on Brooks, who stubbornly insists on playing Kendrick Perkins about twice as much as he should. The bogus fouls that Perk was quickly racking up last night were basically the refs doing Brooks' job for him in a hilariously ironic way. And Brooks kept clicking buttons on the machine: Reggie Jackson started for some reason, we saw Jeremy Lamb for the first time in eons, Nick Collison and Thabo Sefolosha took confusing DNP-CDs. Some of this worked, but the Thunder's long, athletic talent causes fundamental problems for the Spurs in lots of spots, so he's bound to hit somewhere. It's like the 'broken clock is right twice a day' saying, only far more frequent.

(Brooks also gets demerit points for how long he left Ibaka in, during the late stages of a decided game. I know, I know, it's the Spurs, and it's the Playoffs, and anything can happen, and he's had a big night, and the fans are all fired up... But, yeah, anything can happen. This guy's attempting a miracle comeback on one leg; get him the fuck out of the game, preserve his energy, and ensure something like this doesn't happen).

San Antonio will no doubt bring a re-tooled arsenal to Chesapeake Energy Arena for Game 4; they're too smart, experienced, and versatile to let one deflating loss stick with them beyond last night. But even with their thorough depth, this is the one team San Antonio can't seem to figure out; the Thunder took four straight from them the last time they clashed in the Playoffs, and the momentum they're riding right now couldn't be stronger.

As a result, seemingly out of nowhere, we have a Western Conference Finals again; a fitting twist in a plot that deserved a better ending. The West was brutally competitive this year; a point that was made so many times, but could never be over-stated. The narrative was destined for a titanic showdown between two worthy foes to decide a Champ, and for two games it seemed like an illest-timed injury would be robbing us of that spectacle.

But then the Serge Protector delivered. Not only was his return a sudden rush of voltage to a team desperately in need of revival, but he knocked the Spurs out of their comfort zone, giving the Thunder at least a hope of escaping the grave his absence dug.