Call Rasheed Wallace, It's Prediction Time

Training camps opened up league-wide a couple days ago, ringing in the beginnings of a new NBA season. Every basketball addict who spends the summer months struggling with few places to turn for a fix (there were even dry spots in this summer, which even more people were waiting on than Detox) savors this time of year; another eight months of the best hoops on the planet, and with a lockout on the horizon, maybe the last full season we'll get for a while.

With the preseason tipping off next week, this seemed like an ideal time to write up the Official Basketball Banter 2010-11 Preseason Predictions, my hopefully accurate insights about who's going to define the upcoming season. Before I begin, a quick confession: I think predictions are kinda stupid. As Tracy McGrady and Rasheed Wallace before us have proven, they're bold and falliable presumptions that we can see into the future and things will play out to our expectations...But man it's fun when you're right. Here goes nothing...

Rookie of the Year: John Wall, Washington Wizards

This is gonna be really tough. Both Wall and the belated Blake Griffin figure to be immediate impact players for teams that are supposed to be much better than last year. Griffin will surely bring solid rebounding and scoring help to a team that could use both, Wall's cieling is tremendous and his momentum much greater, having not just sat out an entire year. His dynamic with Gilbert will be fun to watch, but Arenas himself is coming off another season in suits, one that may have finally humbled one of the league's brashest personalities. If he cedes control to Wall's superior playmaking, it won't surprise me much, and might line the rookie up for this award and (!) maybe even a playoff spot in the suddenly wide-open bottom of the East bracket.

The Contenders: Blake Griffin, Demarcus Cousins, Evan Turner

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

This is kinda obvious. Howard's a safe bet to lead the League in rebounds and blocks, which would make it very hard to argue against him come April. You know what to expect from D12, and although his numbers dipped slightly last year (party due to teams becoming increasingly wary of his presence), he'll be the most dominant post defender in the NBA this year, and by far the most automatic award prediction.

The Contenders: Josh Smith, Rajon Rondo, Andrew Bogut

Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat

Trying to predict this award's a bit of a crapshoot; winning it involves improving a battling through injury and other roster adjustments, and generally getting more out of your players than was expected. Although said expectations are tremendous in Miami this year, Spoelstra seems like a good coach who's respected by his players and has a team talented enough to spark talk of a 72 win season. The NBA brass didn't shy away from giving Mike F***ing Brown the COY when the Cavs won 67 games, so if Miami dominates the regular season and doesn't get complacent, and Spoelstra manages three superstars well amid more media sctrutiny than any team before, it'll be tough to deny him.

The Contenders: Scott Brooks, Scott Skiles, Jerry Sloan

Most Improved Player: JJ Hickson, Cleveland Cavaliers

Again, a tough one, simply because the guy who won it usually wasn't supposed to. "Improvement" often gets quantified by statisical margins when voters get down to it, and Hickson's an athletic beast who will have tons of minutes for the rebuilding Cavs after he destroyed Summer League and they lost their two centers (not to mention the biggest 3 in the league). With all the opportunity he'll have, it's hard not to see him becoming much more of a force by default; if his game's even a slight bit nicer than last year, it might be enough to lock this up for him.

The Contenders: Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph, Goran Dragic

6th Man of the Year: Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns

With Leandro Barbosa gone in Phoenix, Dragic becomes the de-facto backup in the rotation, who will see an increased presence as Father Time slowly creeps up on Steve Nash. Dragic likely won't start if the Suns are healthy, but he'll bring witty playmaking and dangerous scoring off the bench. Just ask the Spurs. He'll get plenty more time to shine, but with Nashty still playing at an MVP level, probably not enough to rule him out for this award.

The Contenders: Carl Landry (if he doesn't end up starting), Corey Maggette, Jamal Crawford

MVP: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

The fate of the MVP award this year might hinge on Miami doing something historic. If the Heat win 70+ games, then Lebron or Wade is clearly going to be the MVP. In any other situation, their great seasons are likely to have a counter-productive effect on each other's chances, much like Shaq and Kobe in LA. Meanwhile, Durant is the poised leader of an improving team, fresh off a runner-up in last year's voting and a dominant romp at the Worlds this summer. The Thunder are sure to improve as they mature and under a player whose leadership has been highly touted, they will become a true force; an MVP-caliber team for a guy who's already got those letters written all over him.

The Contenders: Lebron James/Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard

East All-Stars: G - Dwyane Wade, G - Derrick Rose, F - Lebron James, F - Chris Bosh, C- Dwight Howard, Bench: Joe Johnson, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Gerald Wallace, Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bogut, Carlos Boozer

West All-Stars: G - Chris Paul, G - Kobe Bryant, F - Kevin Durant, F - Dirk Nowitzki, C - Chris Kaman, Bench: Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Tim Duncan, Rudy Gay, Al Jefferson, Brandon Roy, Russell Westbrook

East Bracket

1. Miami Heat - Easy choice here. Their offseason remodeling was the most impressive makeover since She's All That. Everyone and their grandma has them atop the East.

2. Boston Celtics - They got older, but also deeper; there won't be as much of a strain on their frontcourt's hobbled bodies. Should win 50+ easily if they stay healthy.

3. Orlando Magic - A few questions surround them now after Vince and Rashard regressed so much last year and Dwight failed to become a lethal offensive presence. Still very dangerous, but not the team that made the Finals two years ago.

4. Chicago Bulls - Landing Boozer and Korver helped ease the burn of missing out on the big fish in the Free Agent pool. They'll be much improved with the new faces, the continued growth of Rose and Noah, and not having their coach and GM brawling in the locker room.

5. Atlanta Hawks - You have to wonder how much better this team can get, or if they'll be as hungry now that JJ's Paid in Full and they know they have no chance of winning the East.

6. Milwaukee Bucks - Regardless of Michael Redd's health, this team is well-rounded and young enough that they could still surprise a few people with their developments. Fear the Deer.

7. New York Knicks - They're much more suited to D'Antoni's high-scoring antics with Felton and Stoudemire joining Gallinari, and much deeper than last year. They were dreaming of what Miami got, but after what they put themselves through to get there, any step forward is big.

8. Washington Wizards - Forget the abysmal season they had last year. They've got Arenas back, will have John Wall running the point, a healthy Josh Howard and the continued beasting of Andray Blatche. They have several young guys with lots of potential, and a chance to make this re-building thing pretty quick and painless.

West Bracket

1. Los Angeles Lakers - Last year they were the best team in the West by a large margin with both their bigs missing long stretches. Then they got deeper. Why bet against them now?

2. Dallas Mavericks - Adding Chandler to a full season of Butler and Haywood might make this the best team Cuban's thrown together, certainly the toughest defensively. Chances are it won't be enough for that title though...

3. Oklahoma City Thunder - As Durant continues to torment Seattle basketball fans, this team will be served much more notice this year, but also might have the highest cieling of any squad in the NBA.

4. San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs were much unhealthier last year than they've ever been (funny how that comes with age) but with Parker and Ginobili allegedly back at 100%, they stand a good shot at homecourt.

5. Utah Jazz - Losing Boozer stings, but Jefferson's a proven scorer who can hopefully develop some defensive intensity to endear Jerry Sloan. They covered themselves pretty well.

6. Houston Rockets - Things kinda hinge on the health of their two star players, but if Kevin Martin and Yao Ming can stay on the court, they'll bring the postseason with them.

7. Portland Trailblazers - I've kinda given up on bloating this team's preseason hopes on the hope that Greg Oden can redeem himself. They've lost both their backup points, Travis Outlaw, and a lot of faith in their big man's long-term durability.

8. Memhpis Grizzlies - This is my gamble. History and logic both would suggest that something will go horribly wrong in Graceland this season, but they've certainly got the talent to get here.

East Finals: Heat over Celtics

West Finals: Lakers over Thunder

NBA Finals: Heat over Lakers. I don't wanna see this happen, but I can't help but think it will. A lot of people seem to underestimate the devastation that Dwyane Wade and Lebron James will cause on the same team. Throw Chris Bosh in the mix, add a bunch of veterans who wants titles and know their roles, this team has size, skill and experience in spades. They're gonna put on one hell of a show, one that even us who are rooting against them will have to appreciate.

Hate Me Now

I consider myself to be a pretty good basketball fan. I'm not a stubborn monogomist or a bandwagon hopper, but someone who can apprecaite different things about many NBA teams. I root for few, love to (insincerely) hate on many, but really I just want what's good for the game. Despite this, I'm convinced that there's an undeniable curse haunting the on and off-court lives of any team or player I've dared to call my "favorite" and shown unwavering affection for.

It all started back in '94 when I first started watching ball. Being young and easily excitable, I naturally began worshipping Shawn Kemp, who aside from being pretty damn good, was the most reckless abuser of other players' egos with his high-flying antics. The Sonics were an awesome team who seemed destined for a title, but then things didn't work out for Michael Jordan and baseball, and his 72-10 Bulls beat them in the Finals. Kemp thus doubled his weight, started doing massive amounts of cocaine, and was traded to Cleveland, where nothing ever works out for basketball teams (more on that in a second). Then came the Portland Jailblazers; a colorful bunch of NBA misfits, led by my boy Rasheed, who just happened to have themselves in the thick of the championship hunt. Again, they seemed destined to win it all; up 19 on the Lakers in game 7 of the West Finals back when the East stood no chance at all. Then they missed a few shots, Shaq caught that alley-oop on Sabonis, and an imminent title faded into the distance as the Blazers gradually degenarated into an abyss of selfish basketball, bad contracts and petty crimes. Things just weren't working out, so as an NBA fan, I played the field for a while.

In 2000, Slam magazine ran a feature about some high school sophomore named Lebron James who was trying to get drafted as a 17-year old kid and actually being taken seriously. This kid immediately struck me with his poise and composure; he didn't seem like some insane dreamer, but a young man who was not only determined to be the best, but was actually good enough to do it. I didn't start building it quite that early, but in my mind I was already drawing up blueprints for LBJ bandwagon.

The rest writes itself; the Sports Illustrated cover at 17, the ESPN games, the unheard-of attention and promise that surrounded this kid swept up a nation that was already quick to call for his head over a couple of f***ing throwback jerseys (again, more on that in a second). My admiration for Lebron's game and character kept mounting along with the insane expectations, because no matter how high, he always managed to exceed them, keeping a smile on his face and doing the same for the millions who Witnessed. Even when his NBA career dawned, it seemed we just weren't ready for what he was capable of. Maybe leaving high school early wasn't so far-fetched.

As the rest continued to write itself, Lebron became one of the most loved and high-profile athletes in the World, garnering more attention from the media for not only his stellar play and emerging brand identity, but trivial crap like baseball caps and jersey numbers (what is it with us and this guy's clothing?). As the plot gradually churned leading up to this past summer, things were inevitably going to get very thick for Lebron. Whatever choice he made be dissected under the mass media's most powerful microscope, and signing anywhere but Cleveland seemed like PR suicide.

Thing is, the Cavs just weren't getting it done. Maybe all the hype and expectation finally got to Lebron's head, or maybe he was sick of being a one-man show and still coming up juuust short every year. Whateve the case (likely both), he wanted to win championships. Now. And he found a better opportunity in Miami than the Cavs could offer. Plain and simple. Yeah yeah, I know, "The Decision" was a pretentious, humiliating way to break up with Cleveland, but James gave them a fair window to build a winning franchise around him. Fact is, they brought in some big names, but the 2-12 men came up short in the playoffs every year and visibly frustrated a guy who just wanted to win.

Now that he's Decided to go after greatness, James has been a punching bag, hell a pinata, for fans, talking heads, and even the game's legends this summer. The curse struck again. Not only was James denied a title in Cleveland, but suffered the worst imaginable blow to his image for chasing one. There have been (albeit, some very accurate) misled, exaggerated, out-of-context and just plain stupid things said about the guy who so recently was a basketball hero. One slight screw up and someone we'd spent years adoring was a trendy target for unabashed hatred; like last year when Tiger Woods couldn't keep it in his pants, or like in Scarface when Manny couldn't either. There has been more Lebron hatred raining since mid-July than over his entire career beforehand, and all this before the Miami Heat have played a single game of basketball.

Can we all just fuck off already? All we've ever built Lebron up to be was great. Now he wants to be, and we throw him under the fastest, heaviest truck on the freeway? So what if he's doing it on our terms, leading a team from his hometown to the promise land? He spent half his career slaving to while the team around him came up short. He took a once-in-a-lifetime chance to chase his dream; not money, not fame - he's already got too much of both - but glory. Is that so shameful? We as an audience demanded so much from Lebron that we lost sight of the reality that his own ambitions and desires are what should matter to him. We've seen it happen with countless pro athletes; the bigger the star, the smaller the fuck-up, the larger the outlash; but with James things seemed misguided...All the guy wanted to do was win.

There's not much more that can be said about Lebron's summer that hasn't already been tossed around by jaded, angry and stubborn basketball fans. So let's forget about the offseason, fuck it, it happened, move on. I can't sincerely say that I'll be cheering for the Heat this year - it's hard to root for a team that has the odds stacked so heavily in their favor - but Lebron's going to have a pretty good shot at breaking the curse with the Dream Team the Heat are fielding. It will be exciting, perhaps historical basketball, and if the Heat don't win multiple titles it will surprise many of us.

Keep that in mind, Because it's easy and trendy to hate Lebron now, but it was also trendy (and much easier) to hate Kobe Bryant at one point, and ten times less fathomable that he'd bounce back. Let's let the Heat go do their thing for a bit; let this summer's madness subside. Don't forget that underneath this alleged monster is (arguably) the best basketball player alive. He's got a fresh team - one that's far more talented than any he's been on - and plenty of critics to silence. We can shower Lebron James in Haterade all we want, but when him and D-Wade have their own Court Cuts segment every week, when the Heat win 60+, and when the King can finally hoist the Larry O and rest easy on his throne, it'll be hard for him to feel a single drop.

A Coming of Age Story

What's up everyone, I know it looks like I'm slacking, taking two weeks to get something new on here; the past little bit's been sorta hectic with moving into a new apartment stacked on top of the usual back-to-school routine. I spent last week throwing together a piece about the ten guys with the most important seasons coming up and thought I had posted it the other day, only to find that the same wonderful Blogger interface that religiously fucks up my paragraph spacing had instead deleted it. Having thrown several hours of my life down the toilet, my motivation to write an identical post all over again was shot, so I switched things up a little bit...

Every approaching NBA season brings a set of expectations and opportunities for eager players who have contracts to earn and reputations to establish. While players are hungry to make names for themselves and become stars in the league, they can also face lofty demands from fans, presure from coaches and front offices, not mention a wide-open door for media criticism and personal intrusion. There are a plethora of guys who'll face a crossroads of both this season; they seem to be on the verge of stardom, but are also in high-pressure situations that will allow little room for weakness. Here are the Top 10 whose games are going to have to grow up this season; some look much readier than others but this will be a defining season for every one of them.

Raymond Felton
Always an underappreciated point guard in Charlotte, Felton has found an ideal situation for his newly-turned leaf to land in. Not only is he the new quarterback of New York's much-anticipated NBA rebirth, he gets to run free under the loose reigns of a coach that traditionally churns top-notch performance out of point guards. Felton will experience not only greater exposure and potential stardom than were ever possible with the Bobcats, but the scrutiny of the NBA's most vocal (and fickle) fanbase and media. It's a volatile situation; the epitome of risk/reward, and Raymond Felton's implicitly signed himself up to be either a hero or a scapegoat.


Eric Gordon
Gordon landed a somewhat unexpected spot on Team USA this summer as the de-facto shooter on a team with few, but broke out with a surprisingly well-rounded gamle. He not only scored very well, but his strength at the 2 was an asset as a defender and rebounder, and benefited from being immersed in a far more constructive basketball environment than the Los Angeles Clippers have been. Thing is, it's supposed to be different this year. Blake Griffin's arrival, combined with Gordon's growth are supposed to elevate the Clips beyond their running punchline status and potentially into the playoffs. With those heightened standards comes the painful reminder that something will inevitably go wrong with this team - either the talent won't mesh or Donald Sterling won't cut the check to keep them together - but it's a safe assumption Gordon's stock will continue to rise.


Russell Westbrook
The Thunder clapped very loudly last season; a young franchise grew up far sooner than anyone had anticipated, scared the eventual champs in the first round, and are now counted among the best in the West. Their uprising can no doubt be blamed on the ridiculous antics of Kevin Durant, but Westbrook's maturity and increasingly steady hand are pivotal to this team as they round into form. Expectations will be much higher this year; not only will the Thunder be taking nobody by surprise but a further ascent up the Western heirarchy will be more trying than the leap they made last year. With a whole league on guard, Westbrook will be the key catalyst to OKC's success; we all know how Durant gets down, but Russ' continued emergence will be what pushes this team forward.


Andrew Bogut
Last season was Bogut's coming out party; helping Milwaukee get back to the playoffs and establishing himself as one of the best centers in the league. Although he's accomplished a lot, this season brings an even greater challenge for the Aussie, as the Bucks lost any element of surprise they had last year, along with (apparently) their franchise player. The task of leading this team will now fall upon point guard Brandon Jennings, but even moreso Bogut, after this team set the bar very high for themselves with last season's rapid development. He'll need to not only stay consistent, but healthy, as he'll be more important than ever to a Bucks team that knows it belongs in the playoffs and will be looked upon to continue growing.


Kevin Love
Expectations would already be high on a guy who had a standout performance on Team USA and an Entourage cameo in the same summer, but after winning gold and brawling with the Chase brothers, Love must now shoulder a heavy load as the new focal point of Minnesota's frontcourt. After the Wolves traded their best player for an N64 with one controller and a busted copy of Pilotwings, their awkward rebuilding will continue around Kevlar after an injury-plagued but extremely productive season. As this team struggles to find an identity, Love is a good fit; a hard worker who can score, defend, rebound excellently and passes incredbly well for a guy his size. His versatility will be tested routinely by a team that has 28 point guards, just inked Darko Milicic to a long-term deal, and is sure to be deficient in many areas. The dreadfulness will continue for the Wolves this year, but their franchise (and countless fantasy owners) has a lot riding on him now.

Rudy Gay

Another freshly-minted Team USA vet, Gay is also the proud new owner of a massive contract and the task of leading a Grizzlies team that people are actually taking seriously for once. In that sense, there will be lots of pressure on him to rise to the occasion, and '10-'11 will be a defining year for him. Gay's game has steadily grown into his freakish athleticism, but he will be looked upon for an increased presence from a team that's looking to build towards success. For once. The young talent Memphis has assembled is the best shot at long-term decency that this franchise has ever cobbled together, so after 16 years of sordid futility, here's hoping Gay can earn that top dollar.

Luis Scola

After an absolutely dominant performance at the World Championships, Scola's name will be ringing out much louder in across the NBA this season. His style's always been pretty low-key, grinding out solid numbers for Rockets squads that were short on (healthy) starpower after years of lamping over in Europe as the most sought-after talent outside the Association. Things are about to change. A lot of eyes will be on Houston this year as Yao Ming's career hangs in the balance. If Yao can stay healthy and be anything close to the player he was two years ago, the Rockets could shake things up out West and ...But if Yao gets injured (and he has a slight history of it happening), which could very well end his basketball-playing days, Scola will be of critical importance to a frontcourt that lost Trevor Ariza's athleticism and lacks size. If his play this summer carries over into the season, the playoffs and the All-Star game won't be far off.

Darren Collison
Last season, when Chris Paul took an extended injury leave, a rookie came out of nowhere and put on a very convincing impersonation in his absence. With CP healthy and a trade chip in hand, the Hornets dealt their young prodigy to basketball-crazed Indiana, where fans have become increasingly restless with irrelevant, boring and just plain awful teams. Something's bound to give soon - they can't be bad forever, I mean they're not the Clippers, right? - and Collison seems primed to do what TJ Ford's spine and Jamaal Tinsley's insanity couldn't accomplish. A legitimate point guard will go a long way in Indiana's rebuilding effort, and with an uncontested starting job, Collison's game should only continue to flourish.


JJ Hickson
There's not much point in sugar-coating it; the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be pitiful this year. Not only has the wind completely been sucked out of their sails, but three important frontcourt players left a huge void that will give Hickson a chance to shine. After a season where he showed signs of star potential in limited minutes, he absolutely ate face in several summer league appearances. With O'Neal and Ilgauskas donning other jerseys will see plenty of time at the five for a team that is now very much in rebuilding mode. Meanwhile, this squad's performance is more important than that of the requisite crappy Cleveland sports franchise; a lot of eyes are on how they'll cope with Lebron's departure, especially after Dan Gilbert's embarassing public meltdown. Hickson looks like a Most Improved Player in the making and could be a huge part of any potential Cavs' redemption.


Andrea Bargnani
As basketball North of the border continues to move East of the Atlantic, the lanky Italian Toronto picked first in '06 with huge hopes for is suddenly in the in limelight as the new face of franchise following Chris Bosh's exit. "Bargs" or "Il Mago" (...fuck, somebody get this guy a new nickname) has shown flashes of brilliance since a disappointing sophomore campaign, and without Bosh he will be the focal point on offense; he'll have plenty of chances to feed the confidence his game thrives upon. What remains to be seen of Bargnani is if he can develop the toughness he'll need to lead this team, or perform consistently enough to be a legit go-to guy. With Canada's NBA existence decimated after losing a franchise icon, there will be a lot resting on this young man's ability to finally make the Raptors look smart for drafting him, and hopefully write a happier ending than Toronto's gotten used to.