What's up everyone, hope your summer went better than Paul George's.
Banter took another prolonged sabbatical this offseason as I helped open up a restaurant and was otherwise heavily devoted to my traditional summer routine of Beer-BQs, cottage parties, Floatie Nation, and aggressive patio-surfing.
But as it tends to in Canada, the weather's grown crappier of late, conveniently coinciding with the buildup to an event I fiend for like a hyperactive child does Christmas morning: the start of the NBA Season. Pro basketball's return is a perfect excuse for me to me to spend more time inside, avoiding the eventual snow, wind and -20 abyss, while binge-watching League Pass like a perpetual Netflix series.
The NBA has its own prime-time drama's worth of compelling storylines this year; from LeBron's "Return" to KD's sudden injury (#BasedGodCurse), D-Rose's latest comeback, a loaded rookie class, and the Zen Master's attempt to rescue the New York Knicks. Anthony Davis will continue evolving into a MUTO, James Harden's defense will continue amusing us, and we'll be served up steady script material for the inevitable Kobe-Nick Young buddy comedy. We'll get to devise some "Lob City"-ish nickname for the T-Wolves, sweat a Western Conference that's somehow even more competitive than last year's, and rejoice that the Charlotte Hornets - albeit minus the pinstriped teal - exist again. Not to mention there's a wide-open race for the Larry O; the Spurs have plenty of hungry foes aiming for the crown.
So what can we expect amid all the excitement? Here's Banter's preview, starting with the Top 9 Bold Predictions for 2014-15:
DISCLAIMER: As Grantland tends to do, they beat me to the punch with a recent article that makes predictions about every possible angle of the upcoming season (33 in all). Unavoidably, some of their thought processes overlap with mine, but their logic did nothing to influence what you're about to read. Every prediction I've made here was drafted before their article was published.
9. Dwyane Wade will begin unraveling
I placed this so low because it's sort of already started happening, but I see the next few months as the beginning of the end. Wade's played his career with the reckless abandon of an NFL running back, and as I'd seen coming miles away, the strain caught up with him sooner than any Heat "fan" had hoped. Even as LeBron's second fiddle last year, he was only effective when rested, and wore down disturbingly quickly as the Playoff intensity took its toll.
So what's to be of him now that the best player alive is no longer his running mate? He won't be able to take as many games off, and will be counted on more and more each night for Miami to remain competitive, increasing the demands on his body. He'll turn 33 before the All-Star break, and age is a much greater factor for someone with Wade's checkered injury history. There's several factors working against him concurrently; all added up, it could spell the untimely demise of a truly special player.
8. The Raptors will continue to rise
So what's to be of him now that the best player alive is no longer his running mate? He won't be able to take as many games off, and will be counted on more and more each night for Miami to remain competitive, increasing the demands on his body. He'll turn 33 before the All-Star break, and age is a much greater factor for someone with Wade's checkered injury history. There's several factors working against him concurrently; all added up, it could spell the untimely demise of a truly special player.
8. The Raptors will continue to rise
Being a Canadian, I by default hear more about the Raptors than just about any NBA team, especially now that they're finally relevant on the league-wide scene. I've faced many questions about whether they've plateaued with this roster, or whether they'll improve, and I'm highly convinced that their ceiling hasn't been reached for several reasons:
1) They'll benefit from the continuity of bringing back an almost identical rotation (swapping Lou Williams in for John Salmons is hardly a crucial shift). 2) They'll be playing with more of a purpose; an experienced squad looking to avenge a bitter playoff upset, rather than riding a momentum wave as a surprise overachiever. And most importantly; 3) With the exception of Kyle Lowry (who's never played better basketball), their whole roster still undeniably has growth and improvement to realize before hitting their prime.
They're young, they're hungry, and while we can't expect Toronto to finish any higher in the East (with the Conference's top 4-5 teams becoming much better overall), there's no reason the Raptors shouldn't be rising with the tide.
7. In-season job security among NBA head coaches will remain record-high
1) They'll benefit from the continuity of bringing back an almost identical rotation (swapping Lou Williams in for John Salmons is hardly a crucial shift). 2) They'll be playing with more of a purpose; an experienced squad looking to avenge a bitter playoff upset, rather than riding a momentum wave as a surprise overachiever. And most importantly; 3) With the exception of Kyle Lowry (who's never played better basketball), their whole roster still undeniably has growth and improvement to realize before hitting their prime.
They're young, they're hungry, and while we can't expect Toronto to finish any higher in the East (with the Conference's top 4-5 teams becoming much better overall), there's no reason the Raptors shouldn't be rising with the tide.
7. In-season job security among NBA head coaches will remain record-high
Last season's startlingly-low total of one axed coach leveled off this summer when more bodies hit the floor than the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan. Looking around the NBA, there doesn't appear to be many coaches left on the proverbial "hot seat". As noted above, many teams - the Knicks, Warriors, Nets, Bucks, Jazz, Cavs, Pistons and Lakers - have undergone coaching changes since April, meaning their new guys will get a fair bit of patience.
Elsewhere, there's plenty of coaches who will never, ever be fired (Pop, Thibs, etc), are doing very well in new roles (Jeff Hornacek, Mike Bundeholzer, Steve Clifford), recently survived a front-office shredding (Dave Jeorger), have the co-sign from rebuilding franchises (Brett Brown, Brad Stevens) or who probably would've been fired already if it were going to happen (Kevin McHale, Frank Vogel, Scott Brooks). So sleep easy, NBA coaches, there probably won't be many of you getting canned this season.
6. The Trade Deadline will be a dud again
Perhaps the dominant theme from this summer was the notion that the Free Agency period has almost become its own season, engulfing the trade market and making (most) teams far less anxious to pull the trigger on mid-season deals. That trend is almost certainly going to amplify in the coming months.
Thanks to the NBA's new multi-quadrillion-dollar TV deal, the salary cap (as currently projected) will undergo far-and-away its biggest single-year increase in history next summer, giving almost every team cap room, and leading any player with wiggle room in his contract to opt out and cash in. The market is going to be absolutely ridiculous next July, so while a few contenders might be looking to tweak their lineups come February, the vast majority of teams will be biding their time and slow-playing their hands.
5. Rajon Rondo will be traded to the Houston Rockets
Elsewhere, there's plenty of coaches who will never, ever be fired (Pop, Thibs, etc), are doing very well in new roles (Jeff Hornacek, Mike Bundeholzer, Steve Clifford), recently survived a front-office shredding (Dave Jeorger), have the co-sign from rebuilding franchises (Brett Brown, Brad Stevens) or who probably would've been fired already if it were going to happen (Kevin McHale, Frank Vogel, Scott Brooks). So sleep easy, NBA coaches, there probably won't be many of you getting canned this season.
6. The Trade Deadline will be a dud again
Perhaps the dominant theme from this summer was the notion that the Free Agency period has almost become its own season, engulfing the trade market and making (most) teams far less anxious to pull the trigger on mid-season deals. That trend is almost certainly going to amplify in the coming months.
Thanks to the NBA's new multi-quadrillion-dollar TV deal, the salary cap (as currently projected) will undergo far-and-away its biggest single-year increase in history next summer, giving almost every team cap room, and leading any player with wiggle room in his contract to opt out and cash in. The market is going to be absolutely ridiculous next July, so while a few contenders might be looking to tweak their lineups come February, the vast majority of teams will be biding their time and slow-playing their hands.
5. Rajon Rondo will be traded to the Houston Rockets
First off: Rondo's gonna get dealt this year, don't kid yourself. His recent trade request is the final nail in a coffin Danny Ainge had been slowly building for the past few seasons by dangling him at every opportunity. Rondo's injury last season (resulting in a temporary trade value dip) is probably the only reason he's still a Celtic. With Kevin Love off the trade slate, Rondo is the lone All-Star who's openly available right now, and if he's going to be traded (which he is) Houston is the most logical destination.
Not only do the Rockets fancy themselves contenders (though they currently have no chance in hell of even making it out of the Playoffs' first round), but they just took a step back this offseason, that included whiffing on several would-be star signings. They must be feeling somewhat desperate right now, and have enough assets to cobble together an attractive offer for Boston (something like Pat Beverley, Terrence Jones, a few of the shitload of draft picks they have stashed, and cash). They also have one of the most ballsy and persistent GMs in the NBA; they'll pursue this. Pairing Rondo with James Harden and Dwight Howard also makes sense on paper; a versatile PG who can quell Harden's shitty defense without depleting his shot count, and has a dangerous penetrate-and-kick game that fits Morey's "key or three" model very well.
4. The Indiana Pacers will miss the Playoffs; it won't even really be close
Not only do the Rockets fancy themselves contenders (though they currently have no chance in hell of even making it out of the Playoffs' first round), but they just took a step back this offseason, that included whiffing on several would-be star signings. They must be feeling somewhat desperate right now, and have enough assets to cobble together an attractive offer for Boston (something like Pat Beverley, Terrence Jones, a few of the shitload of draft picks they have stashed, and cash). They also have one of the most ballsy and persistent GMs in the NBA; they'll pursue this. Pairing Rondo with James Harden and Dwight Howard also makes sense on paper; a versatile PG who can quell Harden's shitty defense without depleting his shot count, and has a dangerous penetrate-and-kick game that fits Morey's "key or three" model very well.
4. The Indiana Pacers will miss the Playoffs; it won't even really be close
Toss up: what was the uglier tumble, Paul George's gruesome crash landing into a basket support, or the fall from grace Indiana's been in the midst of since last February? Already mired in an identity crisis that ruined last season, the reigning #1 seed lost George and Lance Stephenson, and will field easily the weakest offensive squad in the NBA this season.
This team will be comically terrible in its efforts to score; David West is their only consistent threat, and defense-belying Rodney Stuckey will likely see heavy minutes just to keep them afloat. Roy Hibbert can't be counted on, George Hill's unproven as a score-first guard, and Luis Scola was basically a Walking Dead extra for most of last year. Even if Chris Copeland comes out on some PED shit, it's going to be a painfully dull season in Indiana.
3. The Knicks' revival will get off to a slow start
Much like the Pacers will struggle to score, the Knicks will struggle to prevent their opponents from doing it to them at will. New York was atrocious defensively last season, and of course, addressed the problem by trading their former DPOY for a center with positioning A.D.D (Sam Dalembert), and one of the two or three worst defensive point guards in the NBA (Jose Calderon). Surround them with guys like JR Smith, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire (who've never been committed defenders), and Andrea Bargnani (not even going there), and there's no hope of them stopping anyone. Iman Shumpert can't do it all by himself. The Zen Master's rebuild looks more like a 2-3 year plan.
2. Anthony Davis will come very close to winning the MVP
This team will be comically terrible in its efforts to score; David West is their only consistent threat, and defense-belying Rodney Stuckey will likely see heavy minutes just to keep them afloat. Roy Hibbert can't be counted on, George Hill's unproven as a score-first guard, and Luis Scola was basically a Walking Dead extra for most of last year. Even if Chris Copeland comes out on some PED shit, it's going to be a painfully dull season in Indiana.
3. The Knicks' revival will get off to a slow start
Much like the Pacers will struggle to score, the Knicks will struggle to prevent their opponents from doing it to them at will. New York was atrocious defensively last season, and of course, addressed the problem by trading their former DPOY for a center with positioning A.D.D (Sam Dalembert), and one of the two or three worst defensive point guards in the NBA (Jose Calderon). Surround them with guys like JR Smith, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire (who've never been committed defenders), and Andrea Bargnani (not even going there), and there's no hope of them stopping anyone. Iman Shumpert can't do it all by himself. The Zen Master's rebuild looks more like a 2-3 year plan.
2. Anthony Davis will come very close to winning the MVP
There's a perfect storm of momentum drumming up this year that will almost lift Davis to the game's most exalted individual honor. First off, he's really fucking good, and getting better every month; he's going to absolutely wreck shit on both sides of the ball this year. Second, the Pelicans are going to be better than anyone thinks; they'll win 45+ games and are a rival injury away from being a Playoff Team in the West. Third, and I hate using this excuse because it shouldn't be valid, but there will inevitably be a wave of boredom bias from media who are tired of the LeBron vs. KD debate, and will look to inject new blood into the MVP race. As we all know, some of the voters aren't exactly the most enlightened minds, and will get swept up the hoopla regardless of how deserving Davis may be. It probably won't be enough to tip the scales, but it's gonna be damn close.
1. The Spurs will repeat
More on this in a second...
EAST STANDINGS WEST STANDINGS
1. Chicago Bulls 1. San Antonio Spurs
2. Cleveland Cavaliers 2. Los Angeles Clippers
3. Washington Wizards 3. Oklahoma City Thunder
4. Toronto Raptors 4. Memphis Grizzlies
5. Charlotte Hornets 5. Golden State Warriors
6. Miami Heat 6. Portland Trail Blazers
7. Brooklyn Nets 7. Houston Rockets
8. Atlanta Hawks 8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Detroit Pistons 9. New Orleans Pelicans
10. New York Knicks 10. Phoenix Suns
11. Indiana Pacers 11. Denver Nuggets
12. Orlando Magic 12. Los Angeles Lakers
13. Boston Celtics 13. Minnesota Timberwolves
14. Milwaukee Bucks 14. Sacramento Kings
15. Philadelphia 76ers 15. Utah Jazz
East Finals: Cavs over Bulls West Finals: Spurs over Thunder
Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker
This one's a no-brainer. Easily the most NBA-ready rookie in terms of skill set and polish, Parker gets dumped on a decrepit roster (especially on offense) where he'll be the undisputed man. He's a heavy favorite for this award, and anyone who tells you otherwise is either being a contrarian or experiencing a mild seizure.
Contenders: Marcus Smart, Andrew Wiggins, Nerlens Noel
Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis
As mentioned above, Davis is growing more into his immeasurable potential seemingly by the game. Watching his evolution is truly special (or terrifying if you're affiliated with any of the other 29 teams); he grasps such vast aspects of basketball stupidly quick, and shifts between them seamlessly like he's just discovered a cheat code in a video game. His specialty of course is making life hell for opposing offenses pretty much anywhere inside the arc. With Omer Asik now patrolling the low post, Davis is going get an absolutely mind-numbing amount of weak-side blocks this year, and many more off the lost fools who try to actually score on him. We're likely looking at the highest stocks average (word to Bill Simmons) since Hakeem the Dream, and for that, the Brow gets the DPOY.
Contenders: Joakim Noah, Serge Ibaka, LeBron James
Sixth Man of the Year: Isaiah Thomas
Now that the Suns finally came to their senses and paid Eric Bledsoe, Thomas figures to be a highly over-qualified backup as the third "starting" point guard on their roster. Though he's drastically under-sized and will only see minutes at the true PG spot, he's bound to work his way into a bunch of quirky Jeff Hornacek lineups, where he'll be an instant dose of scoring on a high-octane roster. So long as he and Dragic don't share the floor for extended stretches against attacking two guards (and there's fewer of them today than there's ever been in the NBA), it shouldn't be hard to make this odd PGx3 rotation work in the Suns' favor.
Contenders: Jamal Crawford, Pau Gasol/Taj Gibson, whichever Pelican winds up not starting
Coach of the Year: David Blatt
I always love (read: fucking hate) trying to predict this award because it's so subjective and results-oriented that picking someone this far in advance is a general waste of time. Usually, it goes to a coach who overcame a serious hurdle to have a successful season, over-performed greatly, or - as was the case last year - was so clearly head-and-shoulders above the competition that he had to be crowned. Gregg Popovich's much-deserved love-fest hit its apex with their much-lauded Finals romp last June; it seems pretty unlikely that he'll repeat while still basking in the afterglow of his finest hour. So I'm putting my money on David Blatt, because Cleveland's going to be very good, and anyone - LeBron or no LeBron - will look good filling Mike Brown's shoes.
Contenders: Tom Thibodeau, Stan Van Gundy, Rick Carlisle
Most Improved Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo
This is the year he makes a huge leap. He's got a full season of NBA play and conditioning under his belt, has figured out a fair deal about his capabilities, can focus on games instead of answering a zillion stupid questions about his hand size and his name's pronunciation, and has just been handed the keys to his team's starting PG spot by one of the position's all-time greats. The sky's the limit for a kid with such gazelle-like athleticism and diverse skill set, and 2014-15 should see it all come together.
Contenders: Anthony Bennett, Terrence Jones, Victor Oladipo
Most Valuable Player: LeBron James
1. He's the best player alive.
2. Everyone and their grandma's back on his nuts after he came back to Cleveland.
3. The Cavs might have some adjustment issues at first, but are still a mortal lock for a top-2 seed in the suddenly-not-so-pitiful East.
4. Kevin Durant's going to miss the season's first month+ and will be shaking off his foot injury for the next few weeks after that.
5. Anthony Davis - explosion of momentum and dominance aside - isn't quite there yet.
6. I have as good a chance of winning this award as any remaining NBA player.
Contenders: Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant
All-Rookie Teams
First: G-Marcus Smart, G-Andrew Wiggins, F-Jabari Parker, F-Aaron Gordon, C-Nerlens Noel
Second: G- Nik Stauskas, G-Rodney Hood, F-Doug McDermott, F-Adreian Payne, C-Mitch McGary
All-Defense Teams
First: G-Chris Paul, G-Tony Allen, F-Anthony Davis, F-Serge Ibaka, C-Joakim Noah
Second: G-Mike Conley, G-Kyle Lowry, F-LeBron James, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Marc Gasol
All-NBA Teams
First: G-Chris Paul, G-Russell Westbrook, F-LeBron James, F-Anthony Davis, C-Dwight Howard
Second: G-Steph Curry, G-James Harden, F-Kevin Durant, F-LaMarcus Aldridge, C-Marc Gasol
Third: G-Damian Lillard, G-Bradley Beal, F-Carmelo Anthony, F-Blake Griffin, C-Al Jefferson
NBA Champions: San Antonio Spurs
And, I mean, why bet against them? They have by far the best coach in the NBA, by far the deepest and most cohesive team unit, and by far the most experience down the stretch of the Playoffs. Through a combination of magic elixirs and Pop's playing-time constraints, they've combated the aging of their stars flawlessly. Their reigning Finals MVP is a timid giant-killer who's only scratching the surface of consistent dominance. And they'll be playing with plenty of motivation to send Timmy D off into the sunset with a title in what's surely his last NBA season.
Cleveland may get it together (though they're going to suffer heavily on defense), Chicago may hold it together (though a lot is going to depend on D-Rose's shaky knees and rusty jumper), the Thunder will no doubt dump Kendrick Perkins' expiring deal at the Deadline for a useful upgrade, and the Clippers might be a viable threat this year without the Sterling Saga distracting them at the worst possible time. But for now, I see the Spurs as the team to beat, and look forward to having a team prove me wrong, because anyone who beats this team over seven games will truly deserve the title.
Here's to another awesome NBA season.
