The NHL season kicked off this week, and unlike most of my Canuck armchair athletes, I spent the night at the movies (for the record, don't go see Prisoners).While most Canadians began engaging in endlessly futile Leafs/Habs debates, I look upon the arrival of hockey as little more than a visceral reminder that the NBA is gearing up right behind it, and us hoops junkies are about to get our best fix again. And the Nuggets are about to give Javale McGee starter's minutes.
Training camps are opening everywhere; literally everywhere as the Raptors returned to my hometown of Halifax for the second straight year, to prep for what - for the first time since the Cretaceous - should be an encouraging season for Canada's lone franchise.
The Raptors aren't alone in their renewed hope, which unfortunately comes in contrast to the rampant tanking that has consumed the League's bottom tier; the promise-packed Draft class of 2014 has plenty of teams "folding pre-flop" to borrow a poker term. Indeed the race of the NBA's worst record will be almost as contested; several teams are already openly pining for lottery balls, with plenty more an injury away from joining the skirmish. Ironic how these same owners spent months griping about "competitive parity" during a lockout less than two years ago, and here we sit.
We'll get the bad out of the way first though, as the Golden Tank season kicks off the Top 9 Fearless Predictions for the 2013-14 NBA Season:
9. The '73 Sixers are safe
With so many teams blatantly canning 82 games in favor of a virtual coin-flip for a chance at a top-2 pick (and either Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker), much has been made of someone potentially breaking the NBA's all-time record for crappiness, most notably the current 76ers squad. Won't happen. Yeah, these Sixers, on paper, are one of the worst and most-maligned assemblies of talent ever, but the Suns aren't too far behind. The Jazz are going to be awful. The Kings are going to play selfish, listless basketball for 96% of the year. The Celtics jumped out of a 3rd-floor window this summer and face major Rondo/identity issues. The Bucks are seriously flawed. The Magic are still figuring things out. The Bobcats will still win 20 games at most. There's no telling just how far things could fall for the Lakers. And, as stated above, with so much incentive in next year's Draft Lottery, any team from the middle tier that suffers a key injury will certainly contemplate jumping in while the water's warm.
Simply put: the bottom third of the NBA might never have been as openly weak as it is this season. All those teams are going to have to play each other enough times, and someone's going to have to win those games, which will be a hell of a lot easier when the opponent subconsciously doesn't want to.
8. D-Rose won't miss a step
Rose spent over a year going through one of the most prolonged and enigmatic rehab processes in sports history. Now that he's back, he's talking about still being the NBA's best player, adding five inches to his vertical, and being merciless enough to murk his own mother on the basketball court.
One thing separating Rose's boisterous sail-filling from the cocky crap pretty much every athlete spews: the last time he made waves by declaring himself a highly-unlikely preseason MVP, he won.
Rose spent a whole season tight-lipped, saying only that he would "come back when he felt 100%" and almost unsure of himself. All indications point to that having been remedied.
7. Joe Dumars will seal his coffin
I think this is it. Dumars bought himself enough rope with the titles he helped Detroit win from both the hardwood and the front office, but this aggressive campaign to get himself fired - drafting Darko, trading Billups for Iverson, grossly over-paying Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, having like seven small forwards on his roster a year ago - I think it's finally come to a head.I hate the Josh Smith signing. Loathe it. Josh Smith is a versatile, talented player who could heap large rewards for the right team, but the Pistons are about as far from "the right team" as exists in the NBA. With Detroit already anchored down low by Greg Monroe and Mr. Jennette McCurdy, Smith will spend much time at the three spot, dragging him away from the hoop and negating his value as a rebounder and one of the NBA's best shot-blockers. More detrimentally, he'll be forced to orient his scoring more to the perimeter, which exacerbates his questionable shot selection and awful outside touch. Smith's a decent passer in the lane, but hardly the dynamic playmaker Detroit was hoping to pair their big men with.
Instead of solid playmaking, the Pistons got Brandon Jennings. The only plus to this signing is that they got decent value out of watching Jennings plummet all summer while team after team passed on him. It ends there. Jennings has shown flashes of brilliance, but painfully little development since his NBA debut. Put simply, he's a shoot-first point guard who doesn't shoot well, and has frequent attention lapses on both sides of the ball. It's unclear whether the added talent around him will be of benefit or detriment to his game, but Jennings will have to make both serious adjustments and improvements to be what Detroit needs at the point.
Dumars was once the NBA's front-office Heisenberg, but a decade has passed since he cooked up that '04 title team, and it has slowly eroded at his hands; trading players too soon (Chauncey Billups), holding onto them too long (Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince), and spending every available dollar in a manner that ranged somewhere from "questionable" to "anarchist". He's done it yet again this summer, denying Detroit a shot at both the Lottery - maybe he was just afraid of an '03 repeat - and the second round of the Playoffs. Hiring Rasheed Wallace as an assistant was by far the most productive part of the offseason.
6. There will be a record-low number of coach firings
Normally, most NBA coaches are riding a carousel of employment Russian Roulette, trading their profile and high pay for alarmingly low job security as the most frequent scapegoat for bad teams. This season should be anomaly to the trend.
Not only have many of the League's worst teams recently re-tooled, but with more embracing the fact that they're going to suck this year, there will be less pressure on GMs to make in-season changes (read: fire the coach before they're next). Most coaches that were on that cliché "hot seat" last season were let go, either due to their insubordination (Lionel Hollins) or incompetence (Vinny Del Negro).
Add it all up, and I'm lining an over/under of three firings this season, which in the NBA is a complete fucking miracle.
5. The Cavs will begin The Redemption
It's been three years since The Decision rattled Cleveland to the point of fiery James jersey genocide in the city's streets. There's no need in reminding anyone what LeBron's been up to since then, but the Cavs have been stuck in the rebuilding hole that losing the NBA's best player for nothing will tend to dig.
Look for them to crawl out this year; Kyrie Irving's evolving into a top-tier player (at least on offense), has a promising scorer/defender flanking him in Dion Waiters, and enough talented big men that Cleveland could make the Playoffs even if Andrew Bynum and Anderson Varejao aren't completely healthy (and really, who's betting they will be).
Adding another #1 pick to a solid young core only gives this team options going forward if Anthony Bennett's development can turn valuable assets (Tristan Thompson, Varejao) into tradeable pieces that can further round-out this team.
Injuries are certainly capable of derailing their progress, but only long absences to multiple key players should keep them from postseason contention, and the serious strides that signal them as a team on the rise.
4. OKC will make a big move; It will be questionable
If one team is quietly panicking right now, it's the Oklahoma City Thunder. Two years ago they were what the Cavaliers dream to be; a young core on the fast-track to greatness. Barely a year ago, they were the precocious Finalists bound for revenge. Now, they appear to have regressed after trading James Harden for a season of Kevin Martin and spare parts, and watching him become one of the NBA's Top 10 players.Despite having the League's most devastating one-two punch in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder must also face the reality that with Harden and now Martin gone, they're the only two players on their roster who can create their own shot. And while they're both incredibly good at it, it's doubtful whether an this roster can meet OKC's elite expectations with such little firepower.
While they can masquerade behind their awesome fans and the confidence of two superstars, the truth is that this team is likely a move away from regaining its title ambitions. Sam Presti has never been one to shy away from pulling the trigger, but his track record with trades isn't exactly impressive; the Harden trade was an obvious bomb, but Presti's other big move - trading Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins - robbed them of the money they could've given Harden without necessarily making them any better.
Fortunately for Presti, there are enough teams in Tank Abbott mode that Perkins' two-years-left whale could net decent help if packaged with some of picks and prospects OKC has stashed. Unfortunately for Presti, everything he's done to dissolve this team has forced fans and critics alike to rethink the praise they gave him for putting it together.
3. The Knicks will completely implode
There's just too much potential. Last year's regular season was a serious miracle for New York; getting through 82 games with the East's second best record, clear of any outright mutinies or JR Smith suspensions.
It all came apart in the Playoffs; the Knicks were exposed as a defensively inept squad whose high-variance, long-range offense could catch unprepared teams off guard, but was much less potent against a good defense who could key in over the course of a series. They flamed out in the second round. And then, of course, JR Smith got suspended.
What New York did in the offseason - in strict James Dolan tradition - was attempt to solve the problem by lighting money on fire. They gave away three draft picks and Steve Novak for a spot-up shooter who's paid three times as much as him and shoots about half as well. Not only is Andrea Bargnani likely the NBA's most overpaid underachiever, but a prime candidate for "Most Likely to be Assaulted by Carmelo Anthony Mid-Scrimmage". In addition, the Knicks brought Metta World Peace on board (obviously) to pacify a locker-room that was already avoiding a Chernobyl-grade meltdown in mere ignorance.
With so many catalysts added to an already-volatile reactor under the constant pressure of the Gotham media and the ever-thickening development of Melo's inability to get to the Finals, book Nets tickets if you're going to New York this year and watch this disaster unfold through the media at a safe distance.
2. The Clippers will have the West's best record (and worst Alternate Jersey)
This is how you respond to Playoff disappointment. Not only did the Clippers make affordable adjustments to enhance the utility of their deep bench, they canned the lunatic overseeing it in favor of one of the NBA's best coaches.Doc Rivers bring more Playoff experience as a player and coach than the Clips' entire roster, and should immediately instill a more confident, competitive environment with this team. The additions of JJ Redick and Jared Dudley give them added firepower on the wing that won't compromise their sketchy team defense, which should generally improve under Rivers' tutelage.
With OKC in reverse, the Spurs on cruise control, and Memphis relatively in neutral, L.A (seriously, the Lakers are the "Other Team" in my mind right now) is my pick to snag the West's coveted #1 spot.
1. The Heat will Three-Peat
More on that in a moment...
EAST STANDINGS WEST STANDINGS
1. Miami Heat 1. LA Clippers
2. Chicago Bulls 2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Indiana Pacers 3. Houston Rockets
4. Brooklyn Nets 4. Oklahoma City Thunder
5. Atlanta Hawks 5. Golden State Warriors
6. Detroit Pistons 6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Cleveland Cavaliers 7. Minnesota Timberwolves
8. New York Knicks 8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Washington Wizards 9. New Orleans Pelicans
10. Toronto Raptors 10. Denver Nuggets
11. Milwaukee Bucks 11. Portland Trailblazers
12. Boston Celtics 12. LA Lakers
13. Orlando Magic 13. Sacramento Kings
14. Charlotte Bobcats 14. Utah Jazz
15. Philadelphia 76ers 15. Phoenix Suns
East Finals: Heat over Bulls
West Finals: Spurs over Clippers
NBA Finals: Don't worry, I'm getting to it...
ALL-NBA: 1st - Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, LeBron James,Dwight Howard
2nd - Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Paul George, Kevin Love, Marc Gasol
3rd - Stephen Curry, Tony Parker, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Brook Lopez
Rookie of the Year: Trey Burke
In this shallow of a draft that played so unpredictably, it's anyone's guess who could snatch this award. I'd bank on the player who looks the most NBA-ready and will have the biggest role with which to make an impact on an awful team that will give him every opportunity. That would be Burke; the Jazz's de-facto starting PG.
Most Improved Player: Enes Favors
Ok, so technically I'm cheating here by picking two players, but the potential-dripping Jazz frontline of Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors that was stashed on the bench for at least a season too long is finally free to do their thing, and a safe bet is that one, if not both, will make significant leaps.
While questions linger about their ability to complement each other over longer stretches and under more defensive attention, both are 3rd-overall picks who have been effective in small roles and have been given nowhere near enough leash to fulfill their potential.
Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich
Like the award above, COY is more or less predicated on defying expectation and doesn't lend itself well to predictions. Every season, people expect the San Antonio Spurs to officially fall over the hill and out of the NBA's Penthouse. Every season, they still remain a viable threat that came off life support after a 2011 first-round ousting to put in serious title runs, coming closer to victory this June than any NBA Finals victim.
So although it should more or less be expected of San Antonio to be in the fight for the West's #1 spot the entire year, I'm picking Pop. He's by far the NBA's best bench boss, and in the mix for this award every season; it's more plausible than any other prediction.
Sixth Man of the Year: Luis ScolaThe Pacers' bench was among the NBA's worst last year, particularly on offense. Fortunately for Indiana, not only do they welcome back likely trade-bait Danny Granger as a dangerous scorer, but also swiped Scola - one of the NBA's most criminally underrated players - from Phoenix's liquidation sale.
Scola's spent years shuffling through the revolving rebuilding door, but now lands on a good team with a role he's quite over-qualified for but can be highly impactful in. Whether or not Granger is dealt, Scola's a dangerous low-post scorer and a workhorse on the boards and can slide to the five in against smaller lineups. He passes well for a big, and has the unselfish work ethic that should mesh well in Indy.
Defensive Player of the Year and MVP: LeBron James
Getting the obvious out of the way, the MVP's is LeBron's to lose, and the variables working against him (an unlikely long James injury, transformation into a revolutionary defender from Kevin Durant, or utter miracle from Fringe Contender X) aren't very strong.What's more of a solid toss-up is whether the voters will collectively come together, get over the "This will put him on Jordan's level!!!" nerves, and recognize LeBron James for what he is: the most effectively versatile defender in NBA history. He can capably guard a higher percentage of the League's players than anyone ever. He can take over games on D in several ways simultaneously. He's finished fourth and second in voting the past two seasons, and regardless of anything he says, knows that completing the MVP-DPOY-Finals MVP Triple Crown's something Jordan never did, only Hakeem Olajuwon ever has (1994), and verrrry few ever will.
This season it's got a solid chance of happening, because as his fundamentals have solidified and he can make plays on D not only with his freakish athleticism but through position and anticipation, it's only getting harder to ignore.
Which brings me back to Miami and their 3-peat; which appears to be the best Finals prediction (over the Spurs, for the record) as they won a title last year playing some of their worst possible basketball for amazingly long stretches of that seven-game series. Time and time again, they've found ways to not only make up for their roster's many holes, but kick into an almost-unparalleled realm of survival mentality whenever they're back into a corner. We've seen it during a plethora of 2nd-half double-digit comebacks during their 27-game win streak, two years in a row vs. Indiana in the Playoffs, and against a Spurs team that spent last spring playing within inches of flawless basketball. They're truly at their best when it matters most, and if Mike Beasley doesn't manage to involve Chris Bosh in a drug arrest during the Playoffs, they should be hungry for a 3-Peat and could be playing well enough crush any of the teams that made contender moves, but failed to solidify themselves as the new team to beat.
Here's to a new NBA Season. Cheers.
