Banter's 2015-16 NBA Preview: Part III - The Hardware

Now that you've endured me blabbering on about every team's season prognosis for several thousand words, we get to the fun part: the awards; the hardware; the glory.

What follows are Banter's predictions for the NBA's All-Stars, awards, and playoff results. These picks are more or less who I believe will be selected, more so than who should be. It's tough to completely compartmentalize that bias when making these predictions, but I'll try.

Before we get to that madness, a brief pause to acknowledge the passing of T-Wolves' Coach/GM Flip Saunders; a longtime and widely-beloved NBA fixture who tragically lost a battle with cancer at age 60. Thoughts are definitely with the Wolves and Saunders family during this tough time; Flip will be missed.

And so, without further ado...

EAST ALL-STARS:

STARTERS: G- John Wall, G- Kyrie Irving, F- LeBron James, F- Carmelo Anthony, F- Pau Gasol

BENCH: G- Jeff Teague, G- Jimmy Butler, F- Chris Bosh, F- Paul Millsap, F- Kevin Love, WC- Kyle Lowry, WC- Paul George

WEST ALL-STARS:STARTERS: G- Steph Curry, G- Chris Paul, F- Kevin Durant, F- Anthony Davis, F- Marc Gasol

BENCH: G- James Harden, G- Russell Westbrook, F- Blake Griffin, F- Kawhi Leonard, F- DeMarcus Cousins, WC- LaMarcus Aldridge, WC- Klay Thompson

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
This is going to be a pretty interesting race this year. Myles Turner could blow up. D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay will both be thrust into the spotlight as contribution-heavy starters. Jahlil Okafor has an NBA-ready game, vying for the one award where team success has (or should have) no bearing at all.

That said, Towns is a total bully on the block who might have most NBA-suited body we've seen on a rookie in years. He'll be stuffed into a low-expectation, high-upside unit where he'll be able to contribute from Day 1 without any fear of a short leash. His energy and physicality suggest he's a very unlikely candidate to hit the 'rookie wall', and every scout who's seen him play at length is very high on him. Time to make Flip proud.
Contenders: Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, Myles Turner

All-Rookie Teams: First- G- D'Angelo Russell, G- Emmanuel Mudiay, F- Stanley Johnson, F- Karl-Anthony Towns, C- Jahlil Okafor

Second- G- Jerian Grant, G- Justise Winslow, F- Trey Lyles, F- Mario Hezonja, C- Myles Turner

COACH OF THE YEAR: Who Knows
Trying to predict this award is a painfully futile process. The winner usually winds up coaching a team that defied or exceeded expectations (and therefore wasn't a logical prediction pick). If the team was supposed to be good, that usually somehow counts as a strike against Coach X (which is totally counterintuitive but I digress..). Place your bets and hope for the best.
Contenders: Gregg Popovich, Brad Stevens, Jason Kidd, Fred Hoiberg

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls
Early indications out of Chicago are that Fred Hoiberg favors a Gasol-Mirotic frontline that spaces the floor in the trendy NBA offensive setup. If this holds true, Noah would have to be the favorite for Sixth Man, as a high-energy menace off the bench who could see minutes at both 4 and 5.

I'm predicting Noah will bounce back after an off year in which he seemed visibly burnt out by the Tom Thibodeau Grind. With Thibs out the door, Noah - who doesn't know how to take a possession off - will get to pick his spots a little better and play with max energy and primacy more consistently.

If he remains a reserve this award might be a wrap, but a reclamation of his starting spot could open the door up for...
Contenders: Isaiah Thomas, Ryan Anderson, Dennis Schroder, Nikola Mirotic


MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: CJ McCollum, Portland Trailblazers
The reality of this award is that its definition warps from season-to-season on a strangely arbitrary basis. Its nature also defies predictions to a large extent because it appeals to the unexpected. So I'm fully expecting my prediction here to backfire, but McCollum - who was red-hot during the post and pre-season - will have ample opportunity to make his mark.

He should be starting by December, and will be able to take advantage of a decimated Blazers roster that's short on any kind of consistent offensive backup for Damian Lillard. McCollum was always touted as an NBA-ready draft prospect, but had his first two seasons derailed by injuries and heavy competition for minutes. Both those factors - along with expectations for Portland - are gone, leaving all the pieces in place for a serious MIP push.
Contenders: Bradley Beal, Meyers Leonard, Nicolas Batum, Elfrid Payton

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
This just feels like a slow train coming, albeit not that slowly. Davis is an otherworldly defensive freak in the pivot, the likes of which the NBA hasn't seen since Hakeem Olajuwon (all apologies to Ben Wallace). He put up eye-popping numbers last year, most of which he played as a 21 year-old.

Now give him another year of growth (both physicality and ability terms), and shift him from a team that played at a glacial pace to one that's going to run more than Forrest Gump. Simply put, Davis' raw statistics are going to be unfathomable this year; it's hard to place a ceiling on what he might do. Beyond that, his versatility as a big man is unparalleled; he's mobile enough to chase larger wings and stretch bigs, while closing out on jump shooters and pick & rolls better than pretty much anyone.

With all the trendy focus on defensive metrics, there's sure to be plenty of convoluted arguments for a variety of players, but I'm thinking Davis at fully-spread wings will be too much to ignore.
Contenders: Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green, Serge Ibaka

All-Defensive Teams: First- G- Chris Paul, G- Tony Allen, F- Kawhi Leonard, F- Anthony Davis, C- Rudy Gobert

Second- G- Mike Conley, G- Jimmy Butler, F- Draymond Green, F- Serge Ibaka, C- Andrew Bogut


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Ya, I've got Davis doing the double-dip this year. Instead of go on about why he should win MVP this year, instead let's talk about why all the other contenders probably won't:

Steph Curry: Won an insanely-competitive MVP race last year in surprisingly-decisive fashion (#GroupThink). This was mostly due to the Warriors' dominance of a conference that's highly-unlikely to yield another 67-win team (since the rest of its Top 5 all improved noticeably in the offseason).

James Harden: Last year's runner-up as an all-around stat monster. He'll still be a killer this year, but will be slightly less of an omnipresent force for Houston with Ty Lawson alongside him and a healthier frontcourt. His numbers should dip accordingly, bringing his MVP case with them.

LeBron James: Unless Cleveland absolutely pummels the East this year (and teams "playing for June" like the Cavs seldom do), it's going to be tough to give LeBron a nod. He knows he's the best player alive and is likely spending most of the regular season on relative cruise control as he inches further into his 30's.

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook: Are likely to cancel each other out this year. There's a reason why Shaq & Kobe only have one MVP each.

Of course some other unknown contender might throw his hat into the ring, but at this point it would be foolish to bet against Davis on a healthier team, with a better coach, and the "His Time is Now" narrative likely to fuel lots of subconscious motivation in the minds of voters. The Pelicans will need a rival injury to crack the West's top-6, but Davis is going to be good enough to seriously challenge the notion that the MVP has to come from a contender.

All-NBA Teams: First- G- Stephen Curry, G- James Harden, F- LeBron James, F- Anthony Davis, C- Marc Gasol

Second- G- Russell Westbrook, G- Chris Paul, F- Kawhi Leonard, F- Kevin Durant, C- DeMarcus Cousins


Third- G- John Wall, G- Jimmy Butler, F- Paul George, F- Blake Griffin, C- Al Horford

PLAYOFFS:
East Finals: Cavs over Bulls
West Finals: Spurs over Warriors

NBA CHAMPION: Cleveland Cavaliers
Ya. There it is. I'm going against the grain of the West's clear superiority, if for no other reason than it's going to be toughest conference ever to escape intact in the playoffs. These teams are going to beat the living shit out of each other over a plethora of seven-game series, while the Cavs could walk rested and untested to a Finals where they'll (odds are heavy) be healthier than last year when LeBron came within two games of winning a title with Tristan Thompson as his 2nd-best player. They'll have continuity and more experience on their side as well (remember last year was both Love and Irving's first trip to the postseason), not having to work a new roster together on the fly throughout the season. LeBron's lost his last two trips to the Finals, and much like the last time, I don't see him standing for a third.

That's it for the Preview kids, it's time for the 2015-16 NBA season to unfold...

Banter's 2015-16 NBA Preview: Part II - The West

We got the (L)East out of the way, now time to move on to the Bestern Conference:

15- Portland Trailblazers
There's bad offseasons, and then there's what happened to the Blazers this summer, which ranks somewhere between the Ashley Madison hack and Fantastic 4 among 2015's biggest mishaps. Losing five of your six best players in two weeks is something an NBA team rarely has to cope with, but the Blazers got dealt a "Rebuild" card about as swiftly as can be done.

Damian Lillard will be on the warpath, and that itself might be enough to win Portland a few games. They have the faint potential to form a passable nucleus of the young talent they've scrapped together, but guys like CJ McCollum and (especially) Noah Vonleh are unproven and won't keep Portland from freefalling this year.

14- Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are just a complete nightmare right now. Having Lou Williams, Nick Young and Kobe on the same roster is like playing Hungry Hungry Hippos with one ball. Their opening night starting frontcourt are two of the most washed "name" players in the NBA. Ron Artest is on their team again.

I guess it's the Lakers, so the season prognosis could easily include a Brandon Bass/Nicki Minaj TMZ sex scandal, Jordan Clarkson assault arrest, or rehab for Ryan Kelly. At least all indications are that D'Angelo Russell is the truth, and Julius Randle will (let's hope) play more this year, which saves the Lakers from being totally forsaken.

13- Minnesota Timberwolves

There's plenty to be excited about for Minnesota fans - the most since Kevin Garnett first burst onto the scene. They've got an enviable troupe of young upstarts, led by back-to-back #1 picks, at least one of whom appears to be a home run in the making. But there will definitely be growing pains, almost inevitably a Ricky Rubio injury to weather, and Flip Saunders' difficult cancer battle looming over the season.

Nik Pekovic and Kevin Martin linger as lame-duck cap-cloggers (though Martin's current deal is an absolute steal for Minny), while the Wolves develop some kind of an identity from their youth movement. They could be a couple spots better if Wiggins leaps and Karl Towns justifies the hype, but they're a few years short of becoming a force in a conference this deep.

12- Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have been the NBA's official Team Purgatory for years now. Stuck somewhere in that awkward phase between contending and rebuilding, they seem stubbornly bent on pushing against the major championship-or-bust trend sweeping the league.

This year should be no exception; don't count on Denver to challenge for either the playoffs or best lottery odds, as they race to the lower-tier of mediocrity. Losing their best player certainly won't help, as Ty Lawson's alcohol antics drove him in a swerving Benz out of town. As such, the Nuggets will be leaning heavily on highly-touted rookie Emmanel Mudiay to get touches for their shooters (Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler) and create for their offensively-limited bigs (JJ Hickson, Kenneth Faried). Mudiay has the makings of a strong pro, but no doubt will be a downgrade at first from Lawson's lethal slash-and-kick filleting. The Nuggets should get a strong season from Gallo, after he went ape-shit down the stretch last year and appears to be every bit healthy.

The presence of Mike Malone will definitely benefit this squad though; a great coach (anyone who breaks through with DeMarcus Cousins deserves a 30 for 30) who got waxed in brutally comical fashion in Sacramento. Good to see him back on the sidelines, but this team needs far more than just a strong coach in their long-term plot.


11- Sacramento Kings
This season's Sacramento Kings have the potential to be one the most fascinating teams in NBA
history.

They are Russian Roulette in the form of a professional sports franchise; so many possible outcomes - not many of them good. We could start with George Karl and the aforementioned DeMarcus Cousins; a union of old-school coach and volatile superstar that (to the surprise of absolutely nobody) is already being massaged in the media. Then add in Rajon Rondo, the petulant would-be star who wore out his welcome with two teams in the past 9 months and is playing very much for himself this season.

Those two variables alone are enough to cause intrigue, but then consider that Vivek Ranadive -probably the most unpredictable owner in the NBA - is calling the shots, Getcha popcorn.

10- Dallas Mavericks
So this wasn't exactly a good offseason for Mark Cuban and the Mavs.

Tyson Chandler is gone. So is Monta Ellis. As too is DeAndre Jordan (too soon?), and even an en-vogue asset like Al-Farouq Aminu. The players Dallas is counting on to fill the void are a rag-tag bunch of has-beens (Sam Dalembert, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, etc), a solid 3rd big (Zaza Pachulia) and the immortal JaVale McGee. Their best acquisition - and most costly gamble - just came off achilles surgery. Their lone star (it is Texas) is 37 years old. These are facts.

Dallas rode Nowitzki to a truly outstanding run over the past 15 years, but this might be the end of the line for a team that's missed the playoffs just once since 2000.

9- Phoenix Suns
It was a (politely put) interesting summer in Phoenix; one marked by a series of Markieff Morris hissy-fits and the quizzical decision to ink Tyson Chandler. Chandler's an elite defender and efficient scorer - definitely a guy you want on your team - but his arrival stymies the burgeoning Alex Len, and reeks of a "contend now" mentality; something the Suns are nowhere near.

Though Morris is putting up the "All is Good" front with the media, Ryan McDonough might be strongarmed into trading him sub-value as he was with Goran Dragic last February. Phoenix's backcourt is dangerous (especially against unathletic guards), but they have a lot of question marks on the wing and at the four (which is basically a wing position now anyway). If Mirza Teletovic fits well and Morris avoids doing Morris things, Phoenix could challenge for the playoffs, but count on this one turning out like their last two efforts.

8- Utah Jazz
If there's a walking argument for the value of a good rim protector, it's Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz. Last season, the Jazz were a lottery-bound defensive flounder with Enes Kanter - a porous defender - playing most of their center minutes.

With Gobert's ability demanding a starting spot, and the unhappy Kanter demanding a trade, Utah's play was obvious. They went 19-10 post-trade with the Rude Boi starting, and became one of the NBA's best defensive teams overnight. The Dante Exum injury is an unfortunate wrench in their plans (Trey Burke's not exactly an ideal starting PG), but everything else about this team - from Alec Burks' return, to continued growth from pretty much their whole young lineup (especially the recently-23 Gobert) is trending up.

Dallas and Portland's summers of despair left voids in the exclusive West Playoff Club. With OKC certainly taking one, the Jazz look like a safe bet to nab the last spot.

7- New Orleans Pelicans

Team Brow is on the come-up, but unfortunately for them, the West is more stacked with legit
contenders right now than any conference ever.

This is basically an identical roster to the one the Pelicans closed shop with in early May, but a few things have shifted: 1) they'll (very likely) be healthier than last year, 2) they'll be coached by someone who actually knows what's happening on offense, and most importantly 3) they'll get another year of frightening development from Anthony Davis.

Once unleashed in Alvin Gentry's full-throttle system, Davis is likely to cause the type of devastation normally reserved by violent typhoons for small Pacific islands. Davis - the NBA's PER leader - was just 26th in usage rate last year (behind the likes of Marreese Speights and Ish Smith). You can bet that number will go up significantly, but don't count on the Pelicans to crash the West's VIP party just yet.

6- Memphis Grizzlies
It sucks for me to have to demote my favorite team after they got better this summer (convincing Brandan Wright to sign for as little as he did was a shameless pillage), but such is life in the West these days.

You know what you're getting with Memphis: a gruesomely slow, rugged game; physical harassment from Tony Allen, physical abuse from Zach Randolph, methodically efficient two-way surgery from Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, and fewer team defense leaks than you'll find in pretty much any lineup. Memphis will make you struggle to score, but the question remains if they won't give themselves the same trouble.

Jeff Green failed to put them over the hump offensively last season, and while the bench got grittier this summer (Wright and the always-bout-it Matt Barnes) the Grizzle need shooters, and guys who can contrast the #GNG mentality offensively, in order to get to the next level.

5- Houston Rockets
The Rockets have drawn an unusual amount of on-the-low hate from both pundits and fans who
shame their plain-oatmeal offense, James Harden's alleged flopping, and just about everything Dwight Howard does.

Entangled partly in that sentiment has been Houston's exclusion among the trendy "contenders" heading into '15-'16, even after this team snatched the 2-seed as a walking ICU, then made the West Finals. Adding Ty Lawson was huge (especially given his crisis-sale price tag), giving them another uptempo playmaker who's highly adept at getting into the paint the creating open looks - the maxim Houston's offense thrives upon.

Losing Josh Smith is negligible with Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas both returning healthy; the Rockets can surely count on better continuity this season with fewer bodies in and out of service. It's hard to keep them out of the top four; I feel like I might be selling Clutch City short. But then there's...

4- OKC Thunder

I could probably just write the words "Kevin Durant" here and be done with it, but we'll take a closer look: OKC has a sneakily-deep rotation, offset only slightly by the presence of defensive duds (Enes Kanter) and delusional pseudo-stars (Dion Waiters).

While Kanter is an obvious liability on D, he also shares the paint with arguably the NBA's most feared help defender (Serge Ibaka); a slight deterrent against picking on him too much. DJ Augustin has proven himself a high-energy pocket rocket of a backup PG; one who won't give 2nd units much of a breather when Durant or Russ Westbrook briefly hits the bench. Nick Collison is a crafty vet on a great contract, Steven Adams is a resolute backup big, and Anthony Morrow is about as dangerous a spacing threat as someone not named "Kyle Korver" can be.

Which is to say this team is more than just Durant and Westbrook, though those two on their own could probably carry the squad. Westy's Man on Fire  act will be much tougher to contain with a former MVP sharing the defense's attention, and a coach who can actually draw up plays on the Thunder bench. This could very well be their last shot at a title run with Durant - at the very least they could use a clean bill of health for once.

3- L.A. Clippers
The Clippers' offseason could be described in many ways, but "entertaining" is probably the most accurate way to sum it up. Not only did we get witness the Passion of the DeAndre unfold in real time, but saw the Clippers upgrade their pathetically shallow roster in the most hilarious ways possible.

First is the Paul Pierce/Doc Rivers dynamic, reuniting two infamous Ubuntu veterans who just happen to have two of the highest villain profiles in the NBA right now; they'll feed off each other like vinegar and baking soda. Then there's the Josh Smith signing, tossing a possibly-reformed knucklehead into a delicate chemistry mix (Chris Paul's temper is shorter than Earl Boykins, and this franchise is absolutely feeling the "Win Now" burn). As if Smith weren't enough, they nabbed a never-reformed knucklehead in Lance Stephenson, setting up two certainties: 1) Rivers will fully earn the coaching portion of his salary this year, and 2) Lance/CP3 will be Banter's official Buddy Comedy for the upcoming season.

But see the thing is, unless Stephenson completely implodes (he won't have nearly as much room to wreak havoc as he did in Charlotte), these moves make the Clippers a much more rounded, frightening team. They might finally have the depth around their stars to crack the West, but there are a couple minor issues in their way:

2- San Antonio Spurs
So the Spurs have LaMarcus Aldridge now. That's a thing that happened. Essentially giving up Tiago Splitter (a fine asset, but not a fringe-MVP), RC Buford and Gregg Popvich pulled a coup that forces the whole NBA to take notice that they weren't finished. But these are the Spurs, of course they aren't.

As Aldridge assumes the go-to offensive duty, he'll have reigning DPOY Kawhi Leonard flanking him with omnipresent brilliance and the still-Big 3 of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili settling in as the sickest role-player corps in modern NBA history. The Alamo has just a stupid amount of depth up front, with Boris Diaw, David West, and Matt Bonner also seeing minutes. This is contrasted by the backcourt losses of Cory Joseph and Marco Belinelli, whom the Spurs will amply replace because, well, they're the Spurs.

Leonard and Danny Green are locked up long-term on very thrifty deals, putting San Antonio in great position once their leadership fully recycles and Duncan & Co. retire. But forget the future, this team is going to be a dynamite-spiked wrecking ball this year. Just keep clear of the devastation.

1- Golden State Warriors

Even in what could prove to be the most top-heavy conference in NBA history, you still have to give Golden State the benefit of any doubt. They blitzed the league at a historic level for 82 games, then marched authoritatively to a title. They made no major moves because they didn't have to (essentially turning the book-bloating David Lee into bargain-basement Jason Thompson), and even with the Spurs' jackpot summer, figure to be the better regular season team.

While San Antonio adjusts to their new centrifugal figure and rests their aging stars, the Warriors will benefit from the continuity (<--NBA buzzword alert) and swagger of being an unaltered squad, not to mention the champs. They're deep, and can cause matchup nightmares for just about any type of lineup, making them perfectly suited for the 82-game long haul.

A summer of hearing how the Spurs are now the favorites, and the Dubs somehow "got lucky" (c. Doc Rivers) last spring, has provided a little extra motivation to the title defense. These guys are pissed. And they're more than capable of taking out some frustration.

I'll be wrapping things up with Part III (The Hardware) next Monday, get involved.

Banter's 2015-16 NBA Preview: Part I - The East

It's that time again.

After months of baseball, tennis and televised darts, the NBA is returning in a blaze of glory. This season has the potential to be especially epic, and though I'm a die-hard fan who gets excited about anything basketball-related, we're truly blessed to be witnessing the NBA's current evolutionary epoch.

Not only is the talent in professional basketball absurdly stacked right now - a testament to the sport's exponential growth in popularity - but more refined training and conditioning have taken athleticism to new speeds and heights.

The game itself is growing rapidly as well; the advent of analytic stats, and revolutionary technology like SportVu have allowed us to understand basketball in ways never possible before, and for the game's best tacticians to use that knowledge to their advantage.

And all that talent is being put to use; front offices have undergone a rapid upgrade in overall intelligence in this era of the "NBA as a Business", and far fewer teams are lighting money on fire without coherent strategies. The result has been more fast-paced, polished, calculated, competitive team basketball. Unless you live in Philly, there's never been more to be excited about.

So with the preseason underway and Opening Night mere weeks beyond us, let's break down who's going to be doing what in the NBA this year, beginning with the East.

EAST STANDINGS: 

15- Philadelphia 76ers 
It must be awesome having Brett Brown's job. Can you plausibly imagine any scenario other than the current Sixers front office, in which the company mandate is to be shamelessly awful and you're paid millions of dollars to coach without any pressure to perform (other than, you know, not winning too many games) or job security issues? This is going on year three now guys. Your fans deserve better, and the rest of us are just getting bored.

14- Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn limped into last year's playoffs almost by default, after the rest of the contenders for the East's final spot self-destructed for various reasons down the stretch. With several of those teams making noticeable offseason upgrades, the Nets lost four rotation players and pulled in... Andrea Bargnani? While Jarrett Jack may end up being an upgrade over the flaky Deron Williams, his move to a starting role stretched the Nets' bench thin. Shane Larkin will likely see most of the backup PG minutes, and though he showed flashes last season, he's no Jack. Brook Lopez is always a few steps away from a leg injury, and Joe Johnson's legitimately graying now. It's unclear how Brooklyn will embrace their imminent rebuild with no cap space or draft picks, but no matter your squad it's gonna be a long season in Gotham (to be continued shortly).


13- Orlando Magic
How this team managed to theoretically "win" the Dwight Howard trade and still hasn't cracked the playoffs in the East is completely beyond me. They've stockpiled a nice young core of talent, but still aren't winning, mostly because they can't defend anybody. Lineups with as many defensive leaks as Orlando (especially close to the hoop) need to be historically great offensively to succeed, and the Magic, well... aren't. Team Disneyland is loaded with upside and could make a playoff push but would likely need some help from a rival injury and a big leap from one of its young guards (after Vic Oladipo's growth curve more or less flat-lined last year). Scott Skiles is a large upgrade running the show, but they've been "a couple years away" for a couple years now, and it looks very likely like a couple more.

12- Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are a weirdly interesting bunch heading into this season. They're deeper than last year, and have a reasonable ceiling, but there's quite a few yellow flags around this team - two big ones in particular. The first is obviously that they lost their best player in the offseason. Greg Monroe leaves a large scoring void, and his absence will make it easier for defenses to key on Andre Drummond. The other is the perplexing thought of Reggie Jackson and Brandon Jennings co-existing in a backcourt on any level. Stranger things have happened, but if Stan Van pulls that off without any brawls or social media feuds it'll be impressive. There's potential for things to go either way here, but I feel like south (as in vacation in April) is where Detroit's headed.

11- New York Knicks
The Knicks will be a better team this year. They upgraded several positions in the offseason, and have a healthy Carmelo Anthony (in body, though perhaps not in mind). But when you were as putrid as the Knicks were last year, only dramatic turnarounds will equate to success, and they don't appear to be there yet. New York's fans shouldn't have expected a free agency jackpot; Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo are nice lures for a franchise in the Knicks' state. Lopez instantly gives the Knicks a nice defensive presence inside after they foolishly dealt Tyson Chandler, and Afflalo can be a second or third-option type that New York's struggled to put around Melo since Amar'e Stoudemire's knees went all Ewing. And if this Porzingis kid gives them anything in year one, it's just icing on the cake.

10- Charlotte Hornets

The big brass coming out of Charlotte this summer was the pilfering of Nic Batum from the Blazers, and his apparent "bigger role" in the Hornets' offense. Coach Steve Clifford has suggested Batum as the "1st or 2nd" option on a team that already has Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. The gamble is obviously in whether Batum's ready to take on such a role; a proposition I'm fairly confident will be a losing one. Batum's an overly-passive player whose biggest faults are his lack of primacy and inability to make defenders pay for mistakes. It surely won't be as disastrous as their last swingman acquisition; at-worst he's a uniquely versatile role-player (and a huge safety net with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist done for the year). But getting your hopes up about Batum being the answer might not be a healthy idea. I'd rather put stock in better post-Lance Stephenson cohesion and a more consistent Jefferson keeping the Hornets anywhere near the playoffs.

9- Boston Celtics
The Celtics were a walking anachronism last year; a team that by all logic should've tried to make the lottery, but was too well-coached to suck as much as the rest of the East. Then they made a trade for a guy who would become their best player down the stretch, and fumbled towards a tragic game of Red Rover with Kevin Love. The David Lee trade was a nice move, but not really enough to keep up with an Eastern Conference whose playoff picture suddenly isn't so pathetic anymore. Adding Amir Johnson on a short-term deal (and a relative bargain considering what Tristan Thompson has the Cavs up against) might prove redundant. Boston is now armed with a glut of depth at the 4/5 spots, and no clear starters, though lineup creativity has never been an issue for Brad Stevens. The Celtics seem to be stockpiling assets rather than building a team; there's a good chance that Danny Ainge blows some (or all) of this up while hoarding draft picks, so the Celtics might be (wisely) headed to the lotto this year.

8- Indiana Pacers
So they lost Roy Hibbert. Whatever. He was quickly becoming a proverbial "box of chocolates" (word to Sally Field) in which two-thirds of said chocolates were the crappy jam-filled ones. David West's departure is a blow to this team's toughness, leaving a void at power forward that hopefully someone other than the returning Paul George can fill. But getting George back - and Monta Ellis to boot - is a much-needed adrenaline shot to an offense that went full Bernie Lomax for much of last season. This prediction obviously hinges on George being in good health, but all signs point to that being the case. If he's anywhere close to his old self, PG and Ellis will aptly lead what last year was an often rudderless quest to put the ball in the hoop. The question is whether the Pacers can sustain their defensive identity without Hibbert, to which the answer should be yes.

7- Toronto Raptors

I like what the Raptors did this offseason. They were a woeful defensive unit last year and took steps to shore up their D without shaking the team's core. Corey Joseph and Bismack Biyombo will be large pluses for the second unit's resistance, and DeMarre Carroll upgrades their large wing defender (Terrence Ross) from an inconsistency to a strong point that can even match with the every-trendy 'stretch four'. Carroll's issue will be his ability to integrate into an offense that last season was the polar opposite of the Hawks's swing-heavy team harmony. Kyle Lowry and Demat DeRozan are ball-dominant stars; either they or Carroll will have to adjust for him be as effective as he was in ATL. This team is still relatively young, and has upside to spare if the pieces come together. Hopefully they - and coach Dwayne Casey - learned a thing or two about focus and toughness after the pistol-whipping Washington laid on them last spring. Speaking of the Wizard Party...

6- Washington Wizards
The Wizards basically stood pat this offseason, losing Paul Pierce to the Clippers and seemingly betting that Otto Porter is ready for a starter's role. Bradley Beal will happily accept the increased looks he's sure to get as a result. While John Wall continues to propel this team, it will be a leap from Beal - one that was curiously absent in his career arc last season - to take this team a notch higher. I'm willing to treat their post-All-Star meltdown as part growing pain, part anomaly; the Wizards should be more consistent this year. That said, the middle of the East playoff bracket is noticeably better this year, and "more consistent" isn't going to lift you with the tide.

5- Milwaukee Bucks
Welcome to team "What If" of the 2015-16 Eastern Conference. They're young and somewhat tough to gauge but the pieces are all here for a potential 'team leap'. First off they addressed their pitiful scoring by injecting Greg Monroe into the pivot, who immediately becomes their go-to guy. They'll also get Jabari Parker back, who should be (at worst) a good second-unit option once he's operational. Then figure in an increased role for John Henson; perhaps the NBA's most criminally under-utilized player last season, who the Bucks recently sunk $44 million into - presumably not to ride the pine. And then there's that Antetokounmpo kid, who could very easily take another large stride this season (pun completely intended), at which point the All-Star game would be in his sights. Basically, a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Bucks to not be a significantly better team this year; place bets accordingly.

4- Atlanta Hawks
There's no question that losing DeMarre Carroll hurts the Hawks. He was about as close to a perfect role player for Atlanta's system as you could ask for. This is a strong unit though, and they shouldn't be crippled by his departure. Millsap and Horford still form one of the NBA's best frontcourts. Jeff Teague is still a borderline-elite PG. They're still a lethal team from long-range (#Korver). Dennis Schroder is ready to make a larger impact, and upgrading from Pero Antic to Tiago Splitter is massive for their bench. They'll stumble, but not far.

3- Miami Heat

As if there was any doubt that a Pat Riley team would be on the mat for too long, the Heat have bounced back with a loaded lineup that will break the East's upper tier if healthy. Miami will pair Goran Dragic and Chris Bosh for the first time, allowing Dwyane Wade to play at a far more sustainable pace. Hassan Whiteside is a defensive monster providing elite, athletic rim protection even amid the more-than-occasional headache. Luol Deng is still a two-way horse and a guy any team would love to have as a fourth option. And that's just the starting lineup. They thieved Gerald Green and Amar'e Stoudemire with veteran's minimum deals, giving their bench instant scoring and a dose of whatever Amar'e has left. They also managed to parlay their near-playoff miss into Justise Winslow, who many pundits feel will go down as the steal of the 2015 Lottery. Add a dash of Josh McRoberts back to the lineup, and this is suddenly a pretty scary rotation if Whiteside doesn't cause an extinction-level event.

2- Chicago Bulls
In the wake of Tom Thibodeau's unceremonious departure from the Windy City, plenty has been made of the physical demands on his players, and the toll it took on their health records - particularly that of one Derrick Rose. With Thibs out the door, the Bulls should be more rested if nothing else this year, which may (probably) translate to being healthier. See, the Bulls weren't really at full strength at any point last year (or any long stretch of Thibs' tenure for that matter). And at full strength this a really fucking good basketball team. Give them the continuity factor (roster is virtually unchanged) and the freedom from Thibs' iron-fisted rule, and they're likely the best of the East's bridesmaids.

1- Cleveland Cavaliers

It happened in Miami the last time around; it's surprising that it was such a big deal when it happened in Cleveland. There was an awkward feeling-out period for three go-to superstars sharing the court; these things take time. But then it clicked, and the Cavs started crushing the East, something not even Kevin Love's injury could offset. Although the back-alley standoff with Tristan Thompson is still awkwardly marring their season preparations, it's highly likely Thompson will cave and negotiate after letting the mid-level exception expire, burning his "I can bolt next summer" leverage. But even without Thompson this is the East's best team - they lost two All-Stars and almost won the title for fuck's sake, And though several rivals should be stronger, it's doubtful they'll have enough to topple the Cavs.

That's it for Part I, stay tuned for Part II (The West) and Part III (The Hardware), dropping soon...