Friday, January 27, 2017

Banter's 2017 All-Star Reserves


The NBA All-Star reserves were announced last night, rounding out the rosters that will be lacing up their exclusive-makeup kicks in Charlotte New Orleans next month.

It's sure to be an unreal offensive display, and while puritans whine about the game's lack of defense and competitive nature, the All-Star Game is what it is; a showcase for all fans that's supposed to maximize highlights and minimize injuries. Those same talking heads would likely be crowing about the ASG's danger to players if someone were to Paul George themselves.

Regardless of your view on its pure basketball value, the All-Star Game is the single best collection of basketball players on the same court, anywhere, every year. For that reason alone, it should always be significant.

So who are those players this year anyway? Before we get to the reserves, a quick refresher on my starters:

EAST STARTERS
G - Kyle Lowry
G - Isaiah Thomas
F - Jimmy Butler
F - LeBron James
F - Giannis Antetokounmpo


WEST STARTERS
G - Russell Westbrook
G - James Harden
F - Kevin Durant
F - Kawhi Leonard
F - Marc Gasol

As I alluded to in my starters column, the conferences have been two vastly different landscapes in terms of top-tier talent this season. The voting tribunal selected the exact same 12 players I did in the East and it couldn't have been more obvious, while with so much talent in the West there were bound to be a slew of worthy snubs. Let's dive in:

EAST RESERVES



G - Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers 

All-Star Because: He's having by far the best scoring season of his career for a first-place team
Not Starting Because: Defense remains an issue, Playoff Kyrie > Regular Season Kyrie

G - John Wall, Washington Wizards
All-Star Because: Absolutely crushing statisically for a team that's suddenly an overperformer
Not Starting Because: Washington sucked for the first quarter of the season

F - Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
All-Star Because: Has cracked the 20-point & double-double avg plateaus; both firsts as a Cavalier
Not Starting Because: LeBron

F - Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
All Star Because: His all-around excellence has kept Atlanta competitive amid a minor identity crisis
Not Starting Because: He started the season in a major slump, and Giannis isn't human

F - Paul George, Indiana Pacers
All-Star Because: Even on cruise control, he's still likely a top-15 player league-wide
Not Starting Because: Of the time he's spent on cruise control & Indiana's somewhat lackluster start

WC - Demar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
All-Star Because: Has taken the mid-range game to new heights this year for Toronto's elite offense
Not Starting Because: He's not even the best guard in his own backcourt

WC - Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets 
All-Star Because: Having a remarkably efficient career-year for a team that needs his scoring
Not Starting Because: Lowry and Thomas are having more apex-efficiency seasons for better teams

EAST SNUBS
Kristaps Porzingis - The Knicks have underwhelmed, and Melo/Rose prevent a full unleashing
Joel Embiid -
Undeniable impact aside, he's spent too much time on the pine for a 17-27 team
Dwight Howard - The Hawks aren't quite good enough to justify a 2nd All-Star
Bradley Beal - Neither are the Wizards
Andre Drummond - Detroit has been one of the NBA's biggest disappointments

WEST RESERVES

G - Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers



All Star Because: He's the same sublime 2-way monster he's been his whole career
Not Starting Because: Harden and Westbrook are having two of the best seasons in modern history

G - Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
All-Star Because: If you're a reigning unanimous MVP, your All-Star spot is a mere formality
Not Starting Because: Kevin Durant's clearly established himself as the Warriors' alpha dog

F - Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
All-Star Because: He's having an absurd statistical season, even by his own lofty standards
Not Starting Because: The Pelicans continue to surround him with crap

F - DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings 
All-Star Because: He's too good for his team to consider trading someone so volatile
Not Starting Because: He plays for a team with perhaps the sketchiest braintrust in professional sports

F - Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
All-Star Because: He's a historically versatile force and DPOY frontrunner for NBA's best team
Not Starting Because: The West is unfairly stocked with talent right now

WC - Damian Lillard, Portland Trailblazers
All Star Because: He's one of most feared scorers in the league
Not Starting Because: He's one of the most inviting defenders in the league

WC - Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
All-Star Because: Utah succeeds by their D, and Gobert is quite arguably the NBA's best defender
Not Starting Because: Still not a massive offensive presence,

WEST SNUBS

Klay Thompson - The Warriors' fourth-best player, and thus, odd man out
Gordon Hayward - Very possibly not the Jazz's most important player
Mike Conley - Broke his back (though somehow only missed three weeks)
CJ McCollum - Just wayy too many elite guards in the West
LaMarcus Aldridge - Having his least impactful statisical season in a decade
Blake Griffin - got himself injured for the like 80th straight season
DeAndre Jordan - Still a give/take player, while Clippers have cooled off
Karl-Anthony Towns - Give Minnesota a couple years
Eric Bledsoe - Give him a better team

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

The 2017 Halftime Awards

With every NBA team now across the season's midway point, it's time to check up on this year's
awards races at a key interval.

2017 brings an interesting mix of awards debates: some highly-contested, others non-existent. We're going to break them down in order from most to least obvious, which conveniently builds quite climatically:

(stats as of Jan 23)

ROOKIE OF THE HALF: JOEL EMBIID, PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Total cakewalk here. Not only is Embiid a transcendent rookie who's putting up eye-popping stats despite a minutes restriction and breathing life into The Process, he's facing a draft class as weak as any in recent memory.

Stuck on just 25 minutes a night, Embiid's per-36 numbers look made-up for a rookie: 28/11/3, 1 steal & 3.5 blocks. If he qualified, he'd lead the NBA in block% by a mile, and be 5th in defensive BPM.

Even on a short leash, he's been invaluable to the Sixers, who are suddenly 7-3 in their last 10 games, and maybe not even the second-worst team in their conference. Let's pray Embiid stays healthy; his is the case of something beyond potential; it's a promise.

Regards To: Malcolm Brogdon...Pascal Siakam? Dario Saric? God this year's rookie class stinks so far. (For the record, it would take a season-ending injury tomorrow, and ensuing PED scandal for Embiid to lose here)

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS
This pick is also pretty obvious, but for underlying reasons. On the surface, Antetokounmpo's popcorn stats have all risen dramatically as he's made himself a league-wide storyline. However, adjusted vs last season's post-All-Star numbers (when he made the shift to point guard), his only large leap is in scoring.

But delve a little deeper, and you'll see his key advanced stats have increased noticeably across the board, skyrocketing in PER and both offensive and defensive BPM. His usage rate is up huge, but his turnover % has decreased; an impressive correlation, especially given how much he controls the ball in a spacing-deficient offense.

Giannis also chalks up bonus points in three areas:
- making an immediate leap into the NBA's upper-tier and MVP discussion; leapfrogging what's supposed to be the most difficult step as a player

- improving his play to elite levels in so many areas simultaneously

- doing so for a team that's more competitive than anyone thought, and succeeding largely due to his huge strides (pun completely intended).

Add it all up and we're in the midst of cataclysmic Greek Freak breakout that NBA heads have been bracing for. And the kid's still only 22; the best is yet to come.

Regards To: Myles Turner, Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker

SIXTH MAN OF THE HALF: ERIC GORDON, HOUSTON ROCKETS
There's a lot going right in Houston this year. Gordon is a huge part of it; an elite sniper who, while having regressed from his days as a stalwart defender, is still capable of bodying an array of opposing wings.

Gordon's been neck-and-neck with Lou Williams (who bolted out to an early lead in this race) as a bench assassin this year, only more efficiently, fueling the second unit of one of the NBA's best offenses ever.

It's Houston's surprise success that also allows Gordon to overcome the fact that Williams outranks him in a lot of advanced metrics. Those numbers a lot more hollow on a floundering team of youngsters - Gordon's getting his for the NBA's token overperformers, giving him an edge in the first race in which there should be much debate.

Regards To: Lou Williams, Enes Kanter, Patty Mills


COACH OF THE HALF: GREGG POPOVICH, SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Mike D'Antoni is the trendy pick here, with the Rockets shocking the NBA at 3rd in the West. This isn't to slight D'Antoni; he's done an amazing job, but been gifted with a situation tailor-made for his system.

The pieces all fit perfectly for him: from the front office's score-first mandate, to James Harden's awesomeness, a bevy of elite shooters, and emerging pick-n-roll potential. D'Antoni teams always over-perform in the regular season anyway, and while this is a regular season award, I can't help but feel like we're inflating Houston's stock just a bit.

Meanwhile, Popovich is steering the Spurs on a 65-win pace, having to revamp their identity on the fly with Tim Duncan gone, Tony Parker looking ancient, two old-school big men starting, all kinds of new rotation adjustments, and a serious downgrade in overall defensive talent. It's a dramatic transition, only one that appears seamless because Popovich is so fucking good at his job.

There's a lingering sentiment among some of the NBA's voting community that Popovich should win this award every year by default. Some years another contender does something impressive that can't be ignored, but this year that guy is Pop himself .

Regards To: Mike D'Antoni, Dave Fizdale, Brad Stevens

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE HALF: DRAYMOND GREEN, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
There's a serious bout for DPOY this year, and Kawhi Leonard isn't even really involved: Two-time runner up Draymond Green is squaring off against human fly-swatter Rudy Gobert. While the two dominate in generally different ways - Green by stopping anything he faces anywhere in its tracks, Gobert as an impenetrable fortress around the hoop - the tale of the tape leaves very little between them.

Both are absolutely crushing defensive stats this year: Gobert leads in blocks, defensive win shares and defensive rating . Draymond leads in defensive BPM, is right behind The Stifle Tower in D rating and D win shares, and sits third in steals as one of only two players in the Top-20 of both steals and blocks (Greek Freak being the other).

The teams they lead are even neck-and-neck in most defensive metrics, adjusting for Golden State's much greater pace. The Dubs and Jazz sit 1-2 in opponent FG%, points per shot, and overall defensive rating.

Ultimately though, this award should be Green's as of now. He's been the usual multi-faceted monster on D, doing an elite bit of everything for Golden State, while enabling them to unleash a new brand of Death Lineup and survive without Andrew Bogut. It's acceptably stated that his contributions have never meant more to their success, and have addressed a serious question mark for the Warriors going into this season.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul

Before we conclude the proceedings, a brief detour in honor of the first half's All-NBA recipients:

ALL-ROOKIE
FIRST TEAM

G-Joel Embiid, G-Joel Embiid, F-Joel Embiid, F-Joel Embiid, C- Joel Embiid

SECOND TEAM
G-Malcolm Brogdon, G-Andrew Harrison, F-Dario Saric, F-Pascal Siakam, C-Joel Embiid

ALL-DEFENSE
FIRST TEAM

G-Chris Paul, G-Tony Allen, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Rudy Gobert


SECOND TEAM
G-Patrick Beverley, G-Thabo Sefolosha, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Anthony Davis, C-DeAndre Jordan

ALL NBA
FIRST TEAM

G-Russell Westbrook, G-James Harden, F-Kevin Durant, F-LeBron James, C-Anthony Davis

SECOND TEAM
G-Chris Paul, G-Kyle Lowry, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Marc Gasol

THIRD TEAM 
G-Stephen Curry, G-John Wall, F-Jimmy Butler, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, C-DeMarcus Cousins

...which leads us to...

MVP: RUSSELL WESTBROOK, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Lastly by both design and coincidence, we have the MVP; a clusterfuck of compelling narratives if ever one existed. On the fringe, there are big men with absurd stats on awful teams (Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins), pint-sized point machines (Kyle Lowry, Isaiah Thomas), a guy who's steadily ascended the league's heirarchy (Jimmy Butler), an annual contender who refuses to regress (pre-injury Chris Paul), the NBA's quietest storm (Kawhi Leonard) - and its loudest (Draymond Green), a grizzly bear (Marc Gasol), a guy who defies explanation (Giannis Antetokounmpo), and two former MVPs doing what they've always done (LeBron James & Kevin Durant).

At the center are James Harden and Russell Westbrook, whose seasons are stretching the superlative stratosphere. Deciding between these two in any regard is like pulling teeth with rusty pliers; either is a worthy winner, and for maybe the first time in my life I could accept either choice without a single debate.

Harden's been an unparalleled offensive catalyst this season. Accounting for Houston's record pace of 3-point bombs, The Beard's producing a ridiculous 56ppg in pts+assts, while both the eye test and metrics suggest his once-comical defense is improving quickly. Patrick Beverley is the only Rocket with a better defensive BPM, and Harden actually sits 15th league-wide in defensive win shares, if you believe that.

Houston being wayyy the surprise of the NBA so far only fuels his candidacy, and while it's a legitimate narrative, it's been written by many pens. As alluded to in my COY pick, the Rockets' success has been a perfect storm of variables that have slid together seamlessly; it's entirely possible (read: somewhat likely) that Harden is benefiting as much from D'Antoni's system and the players around him as vice versa. His performance is especially inspiring after a sub-par 2015-16 run, but a comeback should really hold no weight here.

If we're talking pure value, Russell Westbrook is putting up one of the most epic seasons in NBA history. His narrative is as compelling as they come: a superstar spurned in a controversial exodus, who stayed loyal to a franchise he potentially saved in the process. After Durant's departure, few could have blamed Westbrook for wanting out of OKC, but he's kept them competitive, given them hope amid desolation, and is literally doing everything for them. He's the ultimate eye test player; he never stops competing.

You want stats? Westbrook is the league's leading scorer, and on pace to shatter the all-time record for usage rate. He also leads the league in BPM (by a mile), PER and VORP, three of the main pillars of advanced metrics. Even Harden's defensive strides loom in the shadow of Russ' 4.5  DBPM, second in the entire league. That's all without even mentioning the obvious (though it's worth re-stating) that he's on pace record the NBA's 2nd triple-double average ever, and first in 55 years.

And while Harden's blissfully cruised through this season in an absolutely ideal situation, Westbrook's spent time in relative trenches, grinding out a slew of tough wins with a young roster that, while showing potential, is maligned and completely fucked without him. He doesn't get to benefit from a tailor-made offense, or perfectly complementary talent, he's just too good to be stopped anyway - both on the court in the MVP race right now.

Regards To: James Harden, Kevin Durant, LeBron James

Enjoy the second half - Banter's All-Star benches are coming soon!

Friday, January 20, 2017

Banter's 2017 NBA All-Star Starters

I usually spend this opening paragraph rattling off some semi-cliché rant about the bastardization of the All-Star selection process, tainted by the competency of the average voter (which seems to be a common issue these days).

But just as the situation reached peak popularity contest and Zaza Fucking Pachulia was about to start in an actual NBA All-Star Game, the Adam Silver Innovation Wave washed over, giving me slightly less to worry about.

Half of the voting is now comprised of ballots from the media and players, who while capable of dubiousness themselves, are generally far more sane and educated than NBA Fan X. This adjustment may just push us past the days of the Yao Ming Exception, much like the elimination of the center position on the ballot delivered us from Jamal Magloire.

The system still isn't perfect - a guy averaging a triple-double apparently isn't starter-worthy - but it's absolutely a step in the right direction. A title that will eventually help shape a player's legacy (and in some cases be used as a Hall of Fame yardstick) deserves as much respect.

With the voting in safer hands, the competition for All-Star spots has fallen into a predictable pattern this year; a facile cakewalk in the East and an absolute bloodbath out West. Who's shone brightest so far? Here are the most deserving participants, beginning with the Starters:

EAST STARTERS

G - KYLE LOWRY, TORONTO RAPTORS

Even though the Celtics are only just now finding healthy legs, the Raptors have held

court as the East's 2nd-best team, led by Lowry's sublimely efficient scoring/playmaking, and bulldog defense. Scoring a career-high 22ppg on a completely incredulous .589 eFG% (ninth in the NBA and tops among all guards), Lowry's a staple in all of the Raptors' best lineups, leading a historically-great offense. His dominance is so consistent that one of the NBA's deadliest lineups this year - simply called "Lowry + Bench", features him and four Raptors reserves.

Some misled pundits and fans have attributed Toronto's offensive ascent to Demar DeRozan's scoring spree, slotting him as a backcourt starter. But both the eye test and RPM (where Lowry sits second league-wide, to DeRozan's 114th) suggest Lowry's all-around superiority, and true vitality in the Raptors' success.


G - ISAIAH THOMAS, BOSTON CELTICS

Lowry isn't the only East guard on a torrid offensive streak. Thomas is currently dropping 28.7ppg on .537 eFG%, which is great for any guard, and outright absurd for one who's 5'9". Thomas has become a fearless neo-Iverson, only smaller and more efficient. His whirlwind attacks of the hoop keep defenses constantly guessing, and powered the Celtics through a slew of early key injuries.

Thomas may be a bit of a one-way player, but it's tough to blame a guy for defensive shortcomings (get it) when any player he faces can easily outreach or shoot over him. I'd prefer to focus on his league-leading fourth-quarter scoring, on a team currently ranked fifth in close-game win %. Thomas is a flat-out killer.

While John Wall's been sublime this season, the Wizards started off pitifully, and only recently broke the .500 barrier. Thomas has led a better, injury-hampered team all season, giving him the edge in a close race.

F - JIMMY BUTLER, CHICAGO BULLS

Things are kind of going to shit in Chicago, now that their early 3-point charade has been exposed, and the Rajon Rondo Experience has hit worst-case-scenario. While the Bulls franchise implodes around him, Butler's been his ever-stellar self; a top-tier player on both sides of the ball with an underrated killer instinct.

Despite ball-stopping and lane clogging from Wade and (before his benching) Rondo, Butler's boosted his scoring by 19% to a career-high 24.8, getting to the line far more (9.7 FTA vs 7.1 last year) and hitting a career-best .866 while there. He's also posted a noticeable career-best in rebounds, while matching his best assist numbers, doing so with peak efficiency - his 25.9 PER is good for 10th overall.

The Bulls owe Butler a great debt for being anywhere near the playoffs right now (he's third in the league in win shares; mildly anomalous on a sub-.500 team). With justice it will come in the form of better surroundings, whether in Chicago or elsewhere.

F - LEBRON JAMES, CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

LeBron's write-up for an East starting spot might be the most trite, useless words I wrangle together on a yearly basis. You know why he's here, and that he has to be, and that him starting in this game has become as much an annual certainty as taxes, Christmas, and DeMarcus Cousins trade rumors.

But just so he's not taken completely for granted, let the record show Bron has resurrected his 3-point shot (.375 on 4.8 attempts vs .309 on 3.7 last year), while tying his career high rebs+assts in his 14th season.

F - GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS

This escalated quickly. Most of us knew to brace ourselves for more exponential improvement from the Greek Freak, but he's unleashing an extinction-level event upon the NBA. He's lifted the Bucks to improbable status as a likely playoff team, while leading them in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and field goal%. If you think that's impressive, he's also threatening to be the first player to Top-20 all those categories since nobody. Ever.

We're witnessing a revolution, it is televised (if you have League Pass or live in Wisconsin), and it literally defies adjectives. Antetokounmpo does things we've never seen before, with gazelle-like grace and Stretch Armstrong-like elasticity. He's already a historically versatile force, sits 2nd in the NBA in PER, has arguably been the East's best player so far, and - here's the fun part - is 22 years old.


WEST STARTERS

G - RUSSELL WESTBROOK, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


There's really only so much that needs to be said here beyond "He's averaging a triple-double", but I'll entertain the explanation:

Westbrook's not only on a shocking course to contest one of sports' most untouchable records, but he's doing so as the league's leading scorer, on a team that's a mortal lock for the playoffs. Westbrook is the Thunder as they weather Kevin Durant's departure, on pace to shatter the NBA's single-season usage rate record. His offensive RPM is bested only by James Harden, while sitting fifth in overall RPM.

What he lacks in efficiency, Westbrook more than makes up for in pure omnipresence, even amid a constant defensive swarm as his team's only major threat. Bound by laws of physics and energy unfamiliar to us mere mortals, he's a thrill to watch, and a total nightmare to try and contain.

G - JAMES HARDEN, HOUSTON ROCKETS

While Harden was already essentially a point guard (and MVP candidate), his insertion into the Mike D'Antoni Stat Steroid System has produced some incredible results. The Beard is accounting for the most offense of anyone in the NBA, scoring just under 29/game while dishing a (by far) league-leading 11.7 dimes.

Pick on his defense if you will (at least he's starting to show signs), but Houston isn't about D; they're openly bad at it. They're just going to outscore you, and so far they've done it far beyond anyone's expectations, as the 3-seed out West, once projected as low-rung playoff fodder at best.

Moreyball found its apex coach, and surrounded Harden with a bounty of elite shooters - he's taken full advantage.

F - KEVIN DURANT, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

It takes a pretty darn good player to walk into a whirlwind offensive juggernaut like the Golden State Warriors, and firmly commandeer it from the two-time reigning MVP.

Durant has done just that, relegating Steph Curry's role with a sublime offensive display. Aside from performing his most efficient scoring masterpiece yet, Durant's elevated his D to arguable All-Defense contention, finally tapping into the disruption his length allows him to cause on that end.

The Warriors have undoubtedly had a couple hiccups; every alignment of superstars does while they feel each other out. But they're still the NBA's best team, and Durant's their best player, so he has to be here.

F - KAWHI LEONARD, SAN ANTONIO SPURS

It's sickening how consistent the Spurs are. In what's very much a transition season for them - as much as transition exists in San Antonio - they're still motoring along exactly where they should be; slightly behind Golden State and slightly ahead of everyone else.

Leonard, as expected, has taken on a greater offensive load, while posting an elite 28.35 PER (good for third overall), and providing the same peerless defense. Leonard's defensive RPM has taken a hit (down to a pedestrian .99 - by far a career-low) because he now shares the court with several minus defenders instead of Tim Duncan, but he still manages to post a top-10 6.22 RPM overall.

Leonard's come along steadily; gradually evolving each season to a new level of beast. He's the NBA's two-way zenith, and enough reason in himself for Pop to keep coaching in the AD (anno Duncan).

F - MARC GASOL, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
I tried my damndest to give this spot to Anthony Davis. The Brow's put up a superlative season so far, but ultimately the Pelicans just suck a little too much.


While Gasol might seem like a homer pick by a Grizzlies fan, he's got a ton working in his favor. Memphis is sixth in the West; somewhere they have absolutely no business being, given they lost Mike Conley for 12 games, have hardly seen Chandler Parsons, and sport a new coach with a rag-tag supporting cast that was wholly unproven prior to this year.

Heaps of credit have to go to Gasol; beyond his usual all-around beastery, he's extended his range on offense, giving the Grizz the spacing they need to adapt and survive in the modern NBA. He operates outside his traditional comfort zone, moonlighting as both perimeter gunner and playmaker. The ensuing space allows Zach Randolph to operate in the post undeterred, opens cutting lanes for Tony Allen, and gives Memphis' youngsters plenty of room to breathe.

He's also been a cold-hearted murderer down the stretch in a litany of close Memphis wins, coming up with huge plays on both sides of the ball, and nailing numerous game-winners. His stats don't jump off the page like Davis', but he's as well-rounded as elite centers come, and has done as much through adjustments and clutch performances to help his team as anyone in the league this year.


Stay tuned for the reserves, coming next week!