Saturday, February 14, 2009

Enter The Matrix

Things were supposed to be different in Toronto this year. A franchise that has never really had it all figured out, they were supposed to compete this year; to be near the forefront of an Eastern Conference revival and make good on the progress they'd shown in recent seasons. As it sits, the Raps are firmly buried beneath many boxes of Christmas decorations in the Eastern Conference basement and in dire need of a shake-up. So the Raptors kicked off the annual Trade Deadline rush yesterday by shipping Jermaine O'Neal and Jamario Moon to Miami for Shawn Marion and the corpse of Marcus Banks. It's an interesting trade, one that isn't as terrible for either team as some recent deadline deals.

Let's start with Miami who are headed in the complete opposite direction as Toronto; a team that won 15 games last year and people were penning a fringe playoff contender. They've now solidified their place among the top 8 and should only improve with JO's addition. (Keep in mind, everything I'm about to say hinges on O'Neal's health, which given his recent track record is a shaky variable) His arrival will help shore up a thin front line that's been defensively inept; if O'Neal proved anything in T-Dot it's that he can still protect the paint with the best of them, although the lack of perimeter D meant he was being attacked from all angles. With Marion gone, I can see similar things happening in Miami.

Meanwhile, Marion's departure rids Miami of a player that probably wasn't ever part of their long-term plans and opens up time for future All-Star Michael Beasley to continue developing. He's shown vast improvements as the season's gone on and should slide comfortably into a starting role that will only the bolster the confidence his game thrives upon. Moon's addition may help some but his game's kinda schizophrenic. He's an insanely athletic player who shows occasional glimpses of competence, but his extended on-court napping and repulsive shot selection make him a liability.

What really confuses me about this move though is future implications for Miami; they're a rebuilding team who shipped an expiring deal for an overpaid big man, one who's hoarding $20 million off your cap and has serious long-term durability issues. Instead of staying under the cap after Marion came off the books and making a serious run at another superstar to join their core, they've picked up a deal they'll be hard-pressed to move. I expected better from Pat Riley.

Meanwhile, the Raptors are just rolling the dice, which at this point in their wayward season is totally legit. It's a calculated gamble though; they could've made much worse moves. O'Neal's presence didn't make them much tougher so they're going with a smaller, faster approach with Bargs as their big man. They'll add a defender on the perimeter, something their team needs desperately, and rid themselves of an overpriced investment. What's better, if the Marion experiment doesn't work out, his deal expires in a few months; it's unlikely he'll remain with the Raptors, so at the very least this trade pockets them a Get out of Jail Free card on the O'Neal acquisition.

They also are now forced to play small-ball (with Bargnani as your center you're trying to avoid playing the paint like it's herpes), hopefully run more and not run offensive sets through the post. It's an approach their team's better built for and Marion's ability to slash into the lane off the ball lets them mix it up offense instead of launching jumpers all night. Marion's also going to be able to give them more minutes and not be a nightly red flag health-wise, so from a basketball standpoint it's hard to criticize this trade. One could say the O'Neal era wasn't given much of a fair chance, but when you add a player to an otherwise unchanged core (unless you think Carlos Delfino was really The Answer) and the teams bombs this badly, it's safe to say things just aren't working out. It's a step in the right direction, but it's justthe first of many moves Toronto needs to make to get to where they had hoped to be by this season.

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