Friday, January 27, 2017

Banter's 2017 All-Star Reserves


The NBA All-Star reserves were announced last night, rounding out the rosters that will be lacing up their exclusive-makeup kicks in Charlotte New Orleans next month.

It's sure to be an unreal offensive display, and while puritans whine about the game's lack of defense and competitive nature, the All-Star Game is what it is; a showcase for all fans that's supposed to maximize highlights and minimize injuries. Those same talking heads would likely be crowing about the ASG's danger to players if someone were to Paul George themselves.

Regardless of your view on its pure basketball value, the All-Star Game is the single best collection of basketball players on the same court, anywhere, every year. For that reason alone, it should always be significant.

So who are those players this year anyway? Before we get to the reserves, a quick refresher on my starters:

EAST STARTERS
G - Kyle Lowry
G - Isaiah Thomas
F - Jimmy Butler
F - LeBron James
F - Giannis Antetokounmpo


WEST STARTERS
G - Russell Westbrook
G - James Harden
F - Kevin Durant
F - Kawhi Leonard
F - Marc Gasol

As I alluded to in my starters column, the conferences have been two vastly different landscapes in terms of top-tier talent this season. The voting tribunal selected the exact same 12 players I did in the East and it couldn't have been more obvious, while with so much talent in the West there were bound to be a slew of worthy snubs. Let's dive in:

EAST RESERVES



G - Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers 

All-Star Because: He's having by far the best scoring season of his career for a first-place team
Not Starting Because: Defense remains an issue, Playoff Kyrie > Regular Season Kyrie

G - John Wall, Washington Wizards
All-Star Because: Absolutely crushing statisically for a team that's suddenly an overperformer
Not Starting Because: Washington sucked for the first quarter of the season

F - Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
All-Star Because: Has cracked the 20-point & double-double avg plateaus; both firsts as a Cavalier
Not Starting Because: LeBron

F - Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
All Star Because: His all-around excellence has kept Atlanta competitive amid a minor identity crisis
Not Starting Because: He started the season in a major slump, and Giannis isn't human

F - Paul George, Indiana Pacers
All-Star Because: Even on cruise control, he's still likely a top-15 player league-wide
Not Starting Because: Of the time he's spent on cruise control & Indiana's somewhat lackluster start

WC - Demar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
All-Star Because: Has taken the mid-range game to new heights this year for Toronto's elite offense
Not Starting Because: He's not even the best guard in his own backcourt

WC - Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets 
All-Star Because: Having a remarkably efficient career-year for a team that needs his scoring
Not Starting Because: Lowry and Thomas are having more apex-efficiency seasons for better teams

EAST SNUBS
Kristaps Porzingis - The Knicks have underwhelmed, and Melo/Rose prevent a full unleashing
Joel Embiid -
Undeniable impact aside, he's spent too much time on the pine for a 17-27 team
Dwight Howard - The Hawks aren't quite good enough to justify a 2nd All-Star
Bradley Beal - Neither are the Wizards
Andre Drummond - Detroit has been one of the NBA's biggest disappointments

WEST RESERVES

G - Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers



All Star Because: He's the same sublime 2-way monster he's been his whole career
Not Starting Because: Harden and Westbrook are having two of the best seasons in modern history

G - Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
All-Star Because: If you're a reigning unanimous MVP, your All-Star spot is a mere formality
Not Starting Because: Kevin Durant's clearly established himself as the Warriors' alpha dog

F - Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
All-Star Because: He's having an absurd statistical season, even by his own lofty standards
Not Starting Because: The Pelicans continue to surround him with crap

F - DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings 
All-Star Because: He's too good for his team to consider trading someone so volatile
Not Starting Because: He plays for a team with perhaps the sketchiest braintrust in professional sports

F - Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
All-Star Because: He's a historically versatile force and DPOY frontrunner for NBA's best team
Not Starting Because: The West is unfairly stocked with talent right now

WC - Damian Lillard, Portland Trailblazers
All Star Because: He's one of most feared scorers in the league
Not Starting Because: He's one of the most inviting defenders in the league

WC - Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
All-Star Because: Utah succeeds by their D, and Gobert is quite arguably the NBA's best defender
Not Starting Because: Still not a massive offensive presence,

WEST SNUBS

Klay Thompson - The Warriors' fourth-best player, and thus, odd man out
Gordon Hayward - Very possibly not the Jazz's most important player
Mike Conley - Broke his back (though somehow only missed three weeks)
CJ McCollum - Just wayy too many elite guards in the West
LaMarcus Aldridge - Having his least impactful statisical season in a decade
Blake Griffin - got himself injured for the like 80th straight season
DeAndre Jordan - Still a give/take player, while Clippers have cooled off
Karl-Anthony Towns - Give Minnesota a couple years
Eric Bledsoe - Give him a better team

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

The 2017 Halftime Awards

With every NBA team now across the season's midway point, it's time to check up on this year's
awards races at a key interval.

2017 brings an interesting mix of awards debates: some highly-contested, others non-existent. We're going to break them down in order from most to least obvious, which conveniently builds quite climatically:

(stats as of Jan 23)

ROOKIE OF THE HALF: JOEL EMBIID, PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Total cakewalk here. Not only is Embiid a transcendent rookie who's putting up eye-popping stats despite a minutes restriction and breathing life into The Process, he's facing a draft class as weak as any in recent memory.

Stuck on just 25 minutes a night, Embiid's per-36 numbers look made-up for a rookie: 28/11/3, 1 steal & 3.5 blocks. If he qualified, he'd lead the NBA in block% by a mile, and be 5th in defensive BPM.

Even on a short leash, he's been invaluable to the Sixers, who are suddenly 7-3 in their last 10 games, and maybe not even the second-worst team in their conference. Let's pray Embiid stays healthy; his is the case of something beyond potential; it's a promise.

Regards To: Malcolm Brogdon...Pascal Siakam? Dario Saric? God this year's rookie class stinks so far. (For the record, it would take a season-ending injury tomorrow, and ensuing PED scandal for Embiid to lose here)

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS
This pick is also pretty obvious, but for underlying reasons. On the surface, Antetokounmpo's popcorn stats have all risen dramatically as he's made himself a league-wide storyline. However, adjusted vs last season's post-All-Star numbers (when he made the shift to point guard), his only large leap is in scoring.

But delve a little deeper, and you'll see his key advanced stats have increased noticeably across the board, skyrocketing in PER and both offensive and defensive BPM. His usage rate is up huge, but his turnover % has decreased; an impressive correlation, especially given how much he controls the ball in a spacing-deficient offense.

Giannis also chalks up bonus points in three areas:
- making an immediate leap into the NBA's upper-tier and MVP discussion; leapfrogging what's supposed to be the most difficult step as a player

- improving his play to elite levels in so many areas simultaneously

- doing so for a team that's more competitive than anyone thought, and succeeding largely due to his huge strides (pun completely intended).

Add it all up and we're in the midst of cataclysmic Greek Freak breakout that NBA heads have been bracing for. And the kid's still only 22; the best is yet to come.

Regards To: Myles Turner, Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker

SIXTH MAN OF THE HALF: ERIC GORDON, HOUSTON ROCKETS
There's a lot going right in Houston this year. Gordon is a huge part of it; an elite sniper who, while having regressed from his days as a stalwart defender, is still capable of bodying an array of opposing wings.

Gordon's been neck-and-neck with Lou Williams (who bolted out to an early lead in this race) as a bench assassin this year, only more efficiently, fueling the second unit of one of the NBA's best offenses ever.

It's Houston's surprise success that also allows Gordon to overcome the fact that Williams outranks him in a lot of advanced metrics. Those numbers a lot more hollow on a floundering team of youngsters - Gordon's getting his for the NBA's token overperformers, giving him an edge in the first race in which there should be much debate.

Regards To: Lou Williams, Enes Kanter, Patty Mills


COACH OF THE HALF: GREGG POPOVICH, SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Mike D'Antoni is the trendy pick here, with the Rockets shocking the NBA at 3rd in the West. This isn't to slight D'Antoni; he's done an amazing job, but been gifted with a situation tailor-made for his system.

The pieces all fit perfectly for him: from the front office's score-first mandate, to James Harden's awesomeness, a bevy of elite shooters, and emerging pick-n-roll potential. D'Antoni teams always over-perform in the regular season anyway, and while this is a regular season award, I can't help but feel like we're inflating Houston's stock just a bit.

Meanwhile, Popovich is steering the Spurs on a 65-win pace, having to revamp their identity on the fly with Tim Duncan gone, Tony Parker looking ancient, two old-school big men starting, all kinds of new rotation adjustments, and a serious downgrade in overall defensive talent. It's a dramatic transition, only one that appears seamless because Popovich is so fucking good at his job.

There's a lingering sentiment among some of the NBA's voting community that Popovich should win this award every year by default. Some years another contender does something impressive that can't be ignored, but this year that guy is Pop himself .

Regards To: Mike D'Antoni, Dave Fizdale, Brad Stevens

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE HALF: DRAYMOND GREEN, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
There's a serious bout for DPOY this year, and Kawhi Leonard isn't even really involved: Two-time runner up Draymond Green is squaring off against human fly-swatter Rudy Gobert. While the two dominate in generally different ways - Green by stopping anything he faces anywhere in its tracks, Gobert as an impenetrable fortress around the hoop - the tale of the tape leaves very little between them.

Both are absolutely crushing defensive stats this year: Gobert leads in blocks, defensive win shares and defensive rating . Draymond leads in defensive BPM, is right behind The Stifle Tower in D rating and D win shares, and sits third in steals as one of only two players in the Top-20 of both steals and blocks (Greek Freak being the other).

The teams they lead are even neck-and-neck in most defensive metrics, adjusting for Golden State's much greater pace. The Dubs and Jazz sit 1-2 in opponent FG%, points per shot, and overall defensive rating.

Ultimately though, this award should be Green's as of now. He's been the usual multi-faceted monster on D, doing an elite bit of everything for Golden State, while enabling them to unleash a new brand of Death Lineup and survive without Andrew Bogut. It's acceptably stated that his contributions have never meant more to their success, and have addressed a serious question mark for the Warriors going into this season.

Regards To: Rudy Gobert, Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul

Before we conclude the proceedings, a brief detour in honor of the first half's All-NBA recipients:

ALL-ROOKIE
FIRST TEAM

G-Joel Embiid, G-Joel Embiid, F-Joel Embiid, F-Joel Embiid, C- Joel Embiid

SECOND TEAM
G-Malcolm Brogdon, G-Andrew Harrison, F-Dario Saric, F-Pascal Siakam, C-Joel Embiid

ALL-DEFENSE
FIRST TEAM

G-Chris Paul, G-Tony Allen, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Rudy Gobert


SECOND TEAM
G-Patrick Beverley, G-Thabo Sefolosha, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Anthony Davis, C-DeAndre Jordan

ALL NBA
FIRST TEAM

G-Russell Westbrook, G-James Harden, F-Kevin Durant, F-LeBron James, C-Anthony Davis

SECOND TEAM
G-Chris Paul, G-Kyle Lowry, F-Kawhi Leonard, F-Draymond Green, C-Marc Gasol

THIRD TEAM 
G-Stephen Curry, G-John Wall, F-Jimmy Butler, F-Giannis Antetokounmpo, C-DeMarcus Cousins

...which leads us to...

MVP: RUSSELL WESTBROOK, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Lastly by both design and coincidence, we have the MVP; a clusterfuck of compelling narratives if ever one existed. On the fringe, there are big men with absurd stats on awful teams (Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins), pint-sized point machines (Kyle Lowry, Isaiah Thomas), a guy who's steadily ascended the league's heirarchy (Jimmy Butler), an annual contender who refuses to regress (pre-injury Chris Paul), the NBA's quietest storm (Kawhi Leonard) - and its loudest (Draymond Green), a grizzly bear (Marc Gasol), a guy who defies explanation (Giannis Antetokounmpo), and two former MVPs doing what they've always done (LeBron James & Kevin Durant).

At the center are James Harden and Russell Westbrook, whose seasons are stretching the superlative stratosphere. Deciding between these two in any regard is like pulling teeth with rusty pliers; either is a worthy winner, and for maybe the first time in my life I could accept either choice without a single debate.

Harden's been an unparalleled offensive catalyst this season. Accounting for Houston's record pace of 3-point bombs, The Beard's producing a ridiculous 56ppg in pts+assts, while both the eye test and metrics suggest his once-comical defense is improving quickly. Patrick Beverley is the only Rocket with a better defensive BPM, and Harden actually sits 15th league-wide in defensive win shares, if you believe that.

Houston being wayyy the surprise of the NBA so far only fuels his candidacy, and while it's a legitimate narrative, it's been written by many pens. As alluded to in my COY pick, the Rockets' success has been a perfect storm of variables that have slid together seamlessly; it's entirely possible (read: somewhat likely) that Harden is benefiting as much from D'Antoni's system and the players around him as vice versa. His performance is especially inspiring after a sub-par 2015-16 run, but a comeback should really hold no weight here.

If we're talking pure value, Russell Westbrook is putting up one of the most epic seasons in NBA history. His narrative is as compelling as they come: a superstar spurned in a controversial exodus, who stayed loyal to a franchise he potentially saved in the process. After Durant's departure, few could have blamed Westbrook for wanting out of OKC, but he's kept them competitive, given them hope amid desolation, and is literally doing everything for them. He's the ultimate eye test player; he never stops competing.

You want stats? Westbrook is the league's leading scorer, and on pace to shatter the all-time record for usage rate. He also leads the league in BPM (by a mile), PER and VORP, three of the main pillars of advanced metrics. Even Harden's defensive strides loom in the shadow of Russ' 4.5  DBPM, second in the entire league. That's all without even mentioning the obvious (though it's worth re-stating) that he's on pace record the NBA's 2nd triple-double average ever, and first in 55 years.

And while Harden's blissfully cruised through this season in an absolutely ideal situation, Westbrook's spent time in relative trenches, grinding out a slew of tough wins with a young roster that, while showing potential, is maligned and completely fucked without him. He doesn't get to benefit from a tailor-made offense, or perfectly complementary talent, he's just too good to be stopped anyway - both on the court in the MVP race right now.

Regards To: James Harden, Kevin Durant, LeBron James

Enjoy the second half - Banter's All-Star benches are coming soon!

Friday, January 20, 2017

Banter's 2017 NBA All-Star Starters

I usually spend this opening paragraph rattling off some semi-cliché rant about the bastardization of the All-Star selection process, tainted by the competency of the average voter (which seems to be a common issue these days).

But just as the situation reached peak popularity contest and Zaza Fucking Pachulia was about to start in an actual NBA All-Star Game, the Adam Silver Innovation Wave washed over, giving me slightly less to worry about.

Half of the voting is now comprised of ballots from the media and players, who while capable of dubiousness themselves, are generally far more sane and educated than NBA Fan X. This adjustment may just push us past the days of the Yao Ming Exception, much like the elimination of the center position on the ballot delivered us from Jamal Magloire.

The system still isn't perfect - a guy averaging a triple-double apparently isn't starter-worthy - but it's absolutely a step in the right direction. A title that will eventually help shape a player's legacy (and in some cases be used as a Hall of Fame yardstick) deserves as much respect.

With the voting in safer hands, the competition for All-Star spots has fallen into a predictable pattern this year; a facile cakewalk in the East and an absolute bloodbath out West. Who's shone brightest so far? Here are the most deserving participants, beginning with the Starters:

EAST STARTERS

G - KYLE LOWRY, TORONTO RAPTORS

Even though the Celtics are only just now finding healthy legs, the Raptors have held

court as the East's 2nd-best team, led by Lowry's sublimely efficient scoring/playmaking, and bulldog defense. Scoring a career-high 22ppg on a completely incredulous .589 eFG% (ninth in the NBA and tops among all guards), Lowry's a staple in all of the Raptors' best lineups, leading a historically-great offense. His dominance is so consistent that one of the NBA's deadliest lineups this year - simply called "Lowry + Bench", features him and four Raptors reserves.

Some misled pundits and fans have attributed Toronto's offensive ascent to Demar DeRozan's scoring spree, slotting him as a backcourt starter. But both the eye test and RPM (where Lowry sits second league-wide, to DeRozan's 114th) suggest Lowry's all-around superiority, and true vitality in the Raptors' success.


G - ISAIAH THOMAS, BOSTON CELTICS

Lowry isn't the only East guard on a torrid offensive streak. Thomas is currently dropping 28.7ppg on .537 eFG%, which is great for any guard, and outright absurd for one who's 5'9". Thomas has become a fearless neo-Iverson, only smaller and more efficient. His whirlwind attacks of the hoop keep defenses constantly guessing, and powered the Celtics through a slew of early key injuries.

Thomas may be a bit of a one-way player, but it's tough to blame a guy for defensive shortcomings (get it) when any player he faces can easily outreach or shoot over him. I'd prefer to focus on his league-leading fourth-quarter scoring, on a team currently ranked fifth in close-game win %. Thomas is a flat-out killer.

While John Wall's been sublime this season, the Wizards started off pitifully, and only recently broke the .500 barrier. Thomas has led a better, injury-hampered team all season, giving him the edge in a close race.

F - JIMMY BUTLER, CHICAGO BULLS

Things are kind of going to shit in Chicago, now that their early 3-point charade has been exposed, and the Rajon Rondo Experience has hit worst-case-scenario. While the Bulls franchise implodes around him, Butler's been his ever-stellar self; a top-tier player on both sides of the ball with an underrated killer instinct.

Despite ball-stopping and lane clogging from Wade and (before his benching) Rondo, Butler's boosted his scoring by 19% to a career-high 24.8, getting to the line far more (9.7 FTA vs 7.1 last year) and hitting a career-best .866 while there. He's also posted a noticeable career-best in rebounds, while matching his best assist numbers, doing so with peak efficiency - his 25.9 PER is good for 10th overall.

The Bulls owe Butler a great debt for being anywhere near the playoffs right now (he's third in the league in win shares; mildly anomalous on a sub-.500 team). With justice it will come in the form of better surroundings, whether in Chicago or elsewhere.

F - LEBRON JAMES, CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

LeBron's write-up for an East starting spot might be the most trite, useless words I wrangle together on a yearly basis. You know why he's here, and that he has to be, and that him starting in this game has become as much an annual certainty as taxes, Christmas, and DeMarcus Cousins trade rumors.

But just so he's not taken completely for granted, let the record show Bron has resurrected his 3-point shot (.375 on 4.8 attempts vs .309 on 3.7 last year), while tying his career high rebs+assts in his 14th season.

F - GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS

This escalated quickly. Most of us knew to brace ourselves for more exponential improvement from the Greek Freak, but he's unleashing an extinction-level event upon the NBA. He's lifted the Bucks to improbable status as a likely playoff team, while leading them in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and field goal%. If you think that's impressive, he's also threatening to be the first player to Top-20 all those categories since nobody. Ever.

We're witnessing a revolution, it is televised (if you have League Pass or live in Wisconsin), and it literally defies adjectives. Antetokounmpo does things we've never seen before, with gazelle-like grace and Stretch Armstrong-like elasticity. He's already a historically versatile force, sits 2nd in the NBA in PER, has arguably been the East's best player so far, and - here's the fun part - is 22 years old.


WEST STARTERS

G - RUSSELL WESTBROOK, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


There's really only so much that needs to be said here beyond "He's averaging a triple-double", but I'll entertain the explanation:

Westbrook's not only on a shocking course to contest one of sports' most untouchable records, but he's doing so as the league's leading scorer, on a team that's a mortal lock for the playoffs. Westbrook is the Thunder as they weather Kevin Durant's departure, on pace to shatter the NBA's single-season usage rate record. His offensive RPM is bested only by James Harden, while sitting fifth in overall RPM.

What he lacks in efficiency, Westbrook more than makes up for in pure omnipresence, even amid a constant defensive swarm as his team's only major threat. Bound by laws of physics and energy unfamiliar to us mere mortals, he's a thrill to watch, and a total nightmare to try and contain.

G - JAMES HARDEN, HOUSTON ROCKETS

While Harden was already essentially a point guard (and MVP candidate), his insertion into the Mike D'Antoni Stat Steroid System has produced some incredible results. The Beard is accounting for the most offense of anyone in the NBA, scoring just under 29/game while dishing a (by far) league-leading 11.7 dimes.

Pick on his defense if you will (at least he's starting to show signs), but Houston isn't about D; they're openly bad at it. They're just going to outscore you, and so far they've done it far beyond anyone's expectations, as the 3-seed out West, once projected as low-rung playoff fodder at best.

Moreyball found its apex coach, and surrounded Harden with a bounty of elite shooters - he's taken full advantage.

F - KEVIN DURANT, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

It takes a pretty darn good player to walk into a whirlwind offensive juggernaut like the Golden State Warriors, and firmly commandeer it from the two-time reigning MVP.

Durant has done just that, relegating Steph Curry's role with a sublime offensive display. Aside from performing his most efficient scoring masterpiece yet, Durant's elevated his D to arguable All-Defense contention, finally tapping into the disruption his length allows him to cause on that end.

The Warriors have undoubtedly had a couple hiccups; every alignment of superstars does while they feel each other out. But they're still the NBA's best team, and Durant's their best player, so he has to be here.

F - KAWHI LEONARD, SAN ANTONIO SPURS

It's sickening how consistent the Spurs are. In what's very much a transition season for them - as much as transition exists in San Antonio - they're still motoring along exactly where they should be; slightly behind Golden State and slightly ahead of everyone else.

Leonard, as expected, has taken on a greater offensive load, while posting an elite 28.35 PER (good for third overall), and providing the same peerless defense. Leonard's defensive RPM has taken a hit (down to a pedestrian .99 - by far a career-low) because he now shares the court with several minus defenders instead of Tim Duncan, but he still manages to post a top-10 6.22 RPM overall.

Leonard's come along steadily; gradually evolving each season to a new level of beast. He's the NBA's two-way zenith, and enough reason in himself for Pop to keep coaching in the AD (anno Duncan).

F - MARC GASOL, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
I tried my damndest to give this spot to Anthony Davis. The Brow's put up a superlative season so far, but ultimately the Pelicans just suck a little too much.


While Gasol might seem like a homer pick by a Grizzlies fan, he's got a ton working in his favor. Memphis is sixth in the West; somewhere they have absolutely no business being, given they lost Mike Conley for 12 games, have hardly seen Chandler Parsons, and sport a new coach with a rag-tag supporting cast that was wholly unproven prior to this year.

Heaps of credit have to go to Gasol; beyond his usual all-around beastery, he's extended his range on offense, giving the Grizz the spacing they need to adapt and survive in the modern NBA. He operates outside his traditional comfort zone, moonlighting as both perimeter gunner and playmaker. The ensuing space allows Zach Randolph to operate in the post undeterred, opens cutting lanes for Tony Allen, and gives Memphis' youngsters plenty of room to breathe.

He's also been a cold-hearted murderer down the stretch in a litany of close Memphis wins, coming up with huge plays on both sides of the ball, and nailing numerous game-winners. His stats don't jump off the page like Davis', but he's as well-rounded as elite centers come, and has done as much through adjustments and clutch performances to help his team as anyone in the league this year.


Stay tuned for the reserves, coming next week! 

Monday, October 31, 2016

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 3: The Hardware

Now that I've crowed on about why your team's not going to beat the Warriors/Cavs for several thousand words, it's time to get to the real fun of Banter's NBA Season Previw - The Hardware.

(Premature) Envelopes Please!

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - JOEL EMBIID PHILADELPHIA 76ers

With teammate and #1 pick Ben Simmons gone for possibly the whole season, and Kris Dunn being brought on slightly slower than first thought, this could be Embiid's award to lose provided he can stay healthy. While pinning ROY on a guy who's missed two full seasons prior to his debut, the patience seems to have paid off with Embiid, who has been beyond impressive in a small sample.

Sternly reminding everyone why he was so hyped pre-injury, Embiid gets to compete against a pretty shallow class, with a number of likely impact-rookies - Dunn, Jaylen Brown, Domantas Sabonis, etc - stuck in competition for minutes. Embiid will have all the opportunity, he just needs to dodge some bad injury luck.

CONTENDERS: Kris Dunn, Marquese Chriss, Buddy Hield, Dario Saric


SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR - BRANDON KNIGHT, PHOENIX SUNS


Much as it pains me not to go with Z-Bo, newly-minted to Memphis' bench mob, I have to give Brandon Knight the benefit of the doubt here. There's just too much potential for him to beast weaker second units, and being able to see minutes at both guard spots alongside either of Phoenix's starters will give him ample opportunity to contribute.

Knight has lots going for him as a young, athletic and largely-overqualified sixth man on a free-flowing team whose backcourt is sure to buoy its offense. What's more, the biggest knock on Knight - his poor shooting -might be moot, since Jamal Crawford has won this award three times.

CONTENDERS: Zach Randolph, Evan Turner, Bismack Biyombo, Andre Iguodala, Enes Kanter, Jamal Crawford


COACH OF THE YEAR - QUIN SNYDER, UTAH JAZZ

COY is always kind of a crapshoot since it's often predicated on defying expectation and may have the most abstract criteria of any of the NBA's awards.

This year, like any, it could go a number of ways: Pop is always a contender, Brad Stevens may steer the Celts' ascent high enough to snare the honor, Tom Thibodeau will preside over a T-Wolves leap, and someone else will come out of nowhere like Dave Joerger and Terry Stotts did last year.

But Snyder might stand the best chance, with Utah's stock set to skyrocket up the West standings, likely crashing the 50-win barrier and possibly homecourt with a top-4 seed. Snyder's coaching chops have been put to the test through two injury-riddled seasons on the Jazz bench; if he's as good with a healthy lineup as he is with reserves, he'll be right in the thick of this race.

CONTENDERS: Brad Stevens, Gregg Popovich, Tom Thibodeau, Coach X


MOST IMPROVED PLAYER - MYLES TURNER, INDIANA PACERS

This might be easily said after Turner opened the season with a 30/16/2stl/4blk rampage, but this is sort of something I've seen coming; stashing him all last year in my fantasy keeper league, while happily making him the fourth round's first pick in my yearly.

Turner possesses uncanny movement for a player of his size and reach, and his range on offense makes him a nightmare to account for pretty much anywhere on the floor. Now that Indiana's starting center spot is unquestionably his, the consistent playing time and confidence boost should translate to multi-faceted improvement for a player with such a vast potential of elite skill sets.

CONTENDERS: D'Angelo Russell, Devin Booker, Victor Oladipo, Dennis Schroder, Clint Capela, 


DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - DRAYMOND GREEN, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS


So it's pretty much accepted that Kawhi Leonard is the NBA's best defender. He sustains himself on swingmen's souls. But just like LeBron James has been the NBA's best player for the last decade and has only 4 MVPs to his name, best doesn't always equate to the award. I think Draymond ships it this year, for four reasons:

1. He's lost two of the closest voting races in DPOY history to Kawhi the past couple seasons.

2. He's going to have to exert himself far less on offense with Durant eating so many touches, and can devote even more effort to defensive destruction. Draymond will also be playing with a chip on his shoulder, as he knows he very possibly cost his team an NBA title, and is not the type to take that lightly.

3. Tim Duncan - the NBA's leader in defensive plus-minus last season - has now become repeat liability Pau Gasol. The Spurs' D is thus highly unlikely to crush the team rankings like they did last year, removing a proverbial feather from Leonard's cap.

4. As much as we hate to admit, there's definitely a "boredom bias" against awarding a multiple-repeat winner, at least among some voters. As close as it's been between these two, that could be enough to tilt things Green's way. Said bias is only going to be further shifted by what you're about to read below.

CONTENDERS: Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan


MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: KAWHI LEONARD, SAN ANTONIO SPURS



The pieces are all in place for this to happen for last year's runner-up. Timmy D's retirement means the Spurs are now unquestionably Kawhi's team, and he's a pretty consistent occasion-riser. A completely dominant defender across multiple positions, and one of the NBA's most efficient offensive weapons, he's likely to further benefit from a number of outside factors.

Curry and Durant will likely devour each other's odds of winning, LeBron will be on cruisiest of controls until April, and Westbrook and Harden's teams aren't going to be good enough for them to win unless they massively upend historical precedent. As such, Leonard may have just stepped into MVP status by default.

CONTENDERS: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant


EAST ALL-STARS

STARTERS: G-Kyle Lowry, G-Kyrie Irving, F- Jimmy Butler, F-LeBron James, F-Paul George

Not really a whole lot to think about here; these guys should be pretty clear-cut starters in a perfect world. In reality Melo will probably swerve into a starting spot, but unless the Knicks greatly exceed expectations it won't be in merit.

BENCH: G-John Wall, G-Giannis Antetokounmpo, F-Paul Millsap, F-Andre Drummond, F-Al Horford, WC-Demar DeRozan, WC-Isaiah Thomas 

Wall is an obvious pick, and could-be starter if the Wiz didn't suck.  The Bucks are going to be mediocre at best this year, but Antetokounmpo will be hard to ignore when he's flirting with triple-doubles nightly.  Isaiah Thomas also gets the nod for what should be a top-3 team, ditto for DeRozan.

Millsap can also punch his ticket; coming off a career year, his all-around game even more valuable to Atlanta with also-slotted Al Horford gone, whose Celtics could very much be a "Should Have Two All-Stars" team. Andre Drummond gets a slight nod over Carmelo Anthony, mostly because Detroit will be noticeably better than New York.

Snubs: Carmelo Anthony, Kemba Walker, Hassan Whiteside, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, Reggie Jackson, Serge Ibaka


WEST ALL STARS

STARTERS: G-Stephen Curry, G-Russell Westbrook, F-Kevin Durant, F-Kawhi Leonard,
F-Draymond Green

Picking between the Curry/Westbrook/Harden/Paul Mount Rushmore of backcourt awesomeness is like pulling teeth with no anesthetic; those spots can go any way. Leonard is a no-brainer at one frontcourt spot, while Durant and Green should both still rep for the Dubs if reality meets expectations.

BENCH: G-Chris Paul, G-James Harden, F-Blake Griffin, F-Anthony Davis, F-Karl-Anthony Towns, WC-Damian Lillard, WC-Marc Gasol
Harden and CP3 are automatic, Blake Griffin should be as well if he can avoid breaking his hand on someone's face. Karl-Anthony Towns has all kinds of momentum in his favor, and if the Wolves make a leap, he'll likely be here. As should Davis, with his annual Great Player/Awful Team challenge. Bad D and all, Lillard is still a must for one Wild Card spot, and a healthy Gasol is still an all-around beast for what should be a top-5 team.

Lots more depth of top-tier talent here obviously, with Cousins and Aldridge both serious threats to Gasol's spot. Cousins would have pretty safe odds if the Kings weren't in complete disarray, while Aldridge is in limbo and might not even be on the Spurs by midseason.

Snubs: DeMarcus Cousins, LaMarcus Aldridge, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward, Mike Conley, Eric Bledsoe, DeAndre Jordan, CJ McCollum, Derrick Favors, Dirk Nowitzki 


ALL-NBA TEAMS


FIRST: G-Russell Westbrook, G-James Harden, F-LeBron James, F-Kawhi Leonard, C-Anthony Davis

SECOND: G-Stephen Curry, G-Chris Paul, F-Kevin Durant, F-Paul George, C- Karl-Anthony Towns

THIRD: G-Kyle Lowry, G-Damian Lillard, F-Draymond Green, F-Paul Millsap, C-DeAndre Jordan

Now comes the fun part: Seeing how wrong I am.

Enjoy the season everyone!

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 2: The West

With the East Preview of out the way, it's time to shift scenery over the Wild Wild West, which, in contrast to its reputation, doesn't look all that wild anymore.

Time was, the entire conference was a stacked bloodbath of potential contenders, with upset potential throughout the playoffs. Now the West's depth has withered like a sun-dried tomato, leaving few established threats and a very distinct caste hierarchy:

The Warriors are unquestionably the conference's best team. Only the Spurs and Clippers have any hope of nabbing the 2nd seed, and beneath them just the Jazz, Grizzlies and Blazers project safely as playoff teams. After that, it's a murky quagmire of on-the-fly rebuilds, precocious upstarts, and identity crises.

While the West's bottom-feeders still have marginally brighter collective futures than their East counterparts, the parity between conferences seems to be inching back towards an equilibrium. How does it all stack up? Let's dive in:

LOTTERY LOCKS:

15. Los Angeles Lakers

After a few years of wayward purgatory at the end of Kobe's career, the Lakers can at least begin to steer themselves in the right direction. While they're free of Bryant's lifetime achievement salary and have a potential future core in the Russell-Ingram-Randle triad, they're still at least a season away from beginning their ascent.

In the meantime they're at least decent fodder for jokes about Timofey Mozgov's contract, the Russell/Nick Young dynamic, and how long it will take Luol Deng to regret signing here.

14. Sacramento Kings
xTo nobody's surprise, the Kings are yet again a mess heading into this year. Instead of building around All-Star DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento seems more likely to trade him, with 1/3 of their roster now centers, and Cousins in near-constant malaise when the franchise does dumb shit like this, and this.

Even with Boogie, the Kings are likely lotto-fodder, but with both he and Rudy Gay swirling around in trade rumors, there could be a total bottom-out on the way in Sac-Town. Hopefully they use the upcoming lottery pick more wisely.

12. New Orleans Pelicans
xNot a wicked franchise arc for the Pels right now. Their pseudo-attempt at Win Now Mode topped out at the 8-seed, and now they're left with an ambiguous bottom-rung roster.

Anthony Davis is obviously awesome, but becoming somewhat of a lock to miss ~15 games every year. Jrue Holiday's indefinite absence leaves their point guard situation (an E'Twaun Moore/Norris Cole/Langston Galloway smorgasbord) in heavy flux. The Pels employ three terrible centers, are relying on a few guys literally playing for their careers, and have the Solomon Hill contract to answer for. Don't expect it to happen this year.

13. Phoenix Suns


The Suns' backcourt is pretty stacked. Shifting Brandon Knight to the bench is a natural adjustment that will allow him to see minutes at both guard spots against bench units he'll completely torch.

The frontcourt however remains a mystery, but has breakout potential. Alex Len's infuriating inconsistency should benefit from a year of health, while Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss look like impact rookies. Either way there will be growing pains, and not much stock in a playoff run for another season at least.

11. Denver Nuggets

Denver's a tough team to peg this year. Heavy on mid-level assets, they've been involved in rumored blockbusters for years, but have never managed to work out a deal for a star with their myriad Kenneth Faried packages.

That could change this year, with Jusuf Nurkic very expendable, up-and-comers Will Barton and Gary Harris showing out (with lotto pick Jamal Murray waiting in the wings), and Danilo Gallinari coming off a career year if a Denver finds someone willing to gamble on his health. Really their only untouchable is Nikola Jokic, which leaves them open to many possibilities.

This roster could look very different even a couple months from now, but even as constructed, they have a balanced attack of good-to-elite shooters surrounding one of the league's best young big men. They project as a below-average defensive unit (hence why they're here) but Denver should be at worst a fun League Pass watch.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

10. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs' long string of shitty free agency luck kept spooling this summer when they settled for maxing out Harrison Barnes in perhaps the summer's most  egregious money-bonfire. Swiping Andrew Bogut from the Warriors' Durant Sale was a pleasant surprise (marking the first time the Mavs' summer center plans didn't get fucked over), but likely won't be enough to keep their playoff streak alive.

The Mavs have depth issues across the board, and will be able to rely less and less on Dirk Nowitzki's German-engineered longevity. Their fate lies in the hands of several past-their-prime guys most of whom have spotty health records. Unless Harrison Barnes is worth every dollar (and the safe bet is that he isn't), Dallas will be facing a transition very soon.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

Welcome to Team Next. Now show-run by an elite basketball mind, and with the NBA's best stable of young talent, the Wolves are primed for a major leap this year.

Having Tom Thibodeau calling the shots instead of glorified assistant Sam Mitchell will mean all the difference in the World, especially to a young troupe of athletic legs with lots to learn and stamina to keep up with Thibs' rigor.

Most of their roster has upside to realize, Karl-Anthony Towns is an MVP-in-waiting, and Kris Dunn looks like arguably this year's most impactful rookie. Even just natural growth and continuity would hugely benefit these guys, but such a significant coaching upgrade will be like an HGH boost. They're doubtful to actually crack the playoffs, but don't expect them to be far off.

8. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are going to be an awesome League Pass team this year. Mike D'Antoni and a noticeable shooting upgrade are going to usher in a new era of high-paced :07 Seconds or Less offensive artistry.

Houston will rack up points, which is good, because they couldn't defend a parked Vespa. They have leaks everywhere on D, starting two minus defenders (Nene, Eric Gordon) and two abhorrently bad ones (Ryan Anderson, and perennial YouTube legend James Harden). With all the easy paths to the hoop, their only rim protector (Clint Capela) has awareness and positioning issues. Plus their best defender (Patrick Beverly) is missing the season's first 6 weeks.

Harden's new purely-cosmetic point guard designation will be plentiful with so much spacing around him, but Anderson, Gordon and Trevor Ariza aren't spreed demons; teams with long, switchable perimeter D (and there's more of them every year) could force turnovers and contested shots easily.

7. Oklahoma City Thunder

So ya, Kevin Durant's obviously gone. That sucks. But Russell Westbrook didn't bolt, and he's about to put on a Man On Fire act unlike any we've seen. That alone should carry OKC to the playoffs, in a West middle tier that suddenly isn't as fearsome anymore.

While Westbrook is one-man instant offense, the Thunder's spacing looks very weird, with little outside shooting and a Kanter/Adams post combo with maybe 6-8 feet of range. OKC is also depressingly thin at the 3 and 4, making Durant's absence all the more noticeable. Vic Oladipo will benefit nicely from Westbrook sucking defenses in like a Dyson - routinely creating open looks than he ever would've had in Orlando - but the Thunder are one of the NBA's ideal lane-clogging targets for opposing D.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES:

6. Portland Trailblazers

Portland shocked the NBA last year with an unlikely ascent into the West playoffs after losing five of their six best players over the summer of 2015. While there's no denying they blew away expectations as a team, the Blazers' results definitely benefited from several teams (namely the two that follow here) dealing with perpetual roster-wide injury. Thus, while they're a better team on paper, they'll have a tough time holding their footing.

That said, the Blazers have lots of potential upside to realize in their weirdly-effective frontcourt, and a more physical, athletic presence after committing grand larceny with the Festus Ezeli deal. Evan Turner is perhaps the NBA's best Swiss Army Knife 6th Man, and should thrive in an identical role and similar system to his Boston gig. Slotting Portland here kinda has to be done, but feels very much like their floor, especially if Allen Crabbe's worth anywhere even in the same area code as his new contract.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

RIP Grit N Grind. With Chandler Parsons' acquisition and Zach Randolph's bench demotion, the Grizz have finally drank the potion and zagged with most of the NBA into a space-and-pace system. Parsons, when healthy, is precisely the kind of player the Grizzlies have longed for, but the "when healthy" part highlights a major concern for Memphis.

As much as Randolph and Tony Allen are still cornerstones of the Grizzlies' culture and identity, their on-court makeup rests heavily on Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Parsons, all of whom are coming off serious injuries with unclear long-term implications. It's supremely unlikely Memphis' roster is hit as hard by injury as last year, but a fully healthy season would be a pleasant surprise.

4. Utah Jazz

The Jazz have "leap" written all over them this year. Where to start? First off they have a stable
chocked full of young talent, any of whom could take large personal strides.

They also now start an average point guard, which would seem like a ho-hum statement if Utah's PG situation wasn't perhaps the single most deficient position in the NBA last year. As a bonus, they return Dante Exum from injury, embarking on one of the league's more intriguing dice-rolls at backup.

Utah, like Memphis, were also hit hard by injuries last year. While Gordon Hayward hasn't gotten them off to a great start they're even less likely than the Grizz to see such misfortune repeat itself. With fewer lineup shifts, Utah's young core will benefit from continuity and collective growth. They also made a couple great on-the-low offseason signings in Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, who provide veteran presence and are still capable on-court contributors.

Add it all up and it's hard to see Utah not leaping at least several spots up this season's West standings.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

One of the NBA's most frustrating teams, the Clippers seem stubbornly bent on maxing out as a 3-seed and getting knocked out in the 2nd round every year. They have the pieces - one of the NBA's best Big-3s surrounded by a passable 2-way supporting cast and coached by one of the best - but the health, stamina, focus and overall desire are all question marks.

You pretty much know what you're getting with this virtually-unchanged roster. If they can string together a healthy season from both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, they could challenge San Antonio for the 2-seed, but overall their potential range is very narrow. Only a serious injury will drop them out the West's top-3, and only a miracle will get them past the Spurs or Warriors in the spring.

2. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs without Tim Duncan is going to be weird; like a peanut butter sandwich without the jam, Meth without Red, or Dany Targaryen without dragons. As the Spurs shift into a new era, they've found themselves a decent placeholder at center in Pau Gasol (albeit one who's far worse defensively).

There are several questions surrounding the Spurs' season, including how much Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have left in the tank, the prospects of trading LaMarcus Aldridge, and how severe Pop's separation anxiety from Duncan will be.

Regardless, the Spurs set a franchise record for wins last year with Duncan in a cameo role, and rock by far the league's most stable system and pedigree. They're as safe a bet for the West's #2 seed as any team in any spot league-wide.

1. Golden State Warriors 
They won 73 games last year, then got Kevin Durant. What else do you want.



Stay tuned for Part 3: The Hardware, dropping any day now....

Friday, October 21, 2016

2016-17 NBA Preview - Part 1: The East

Ah, October.

The air is crisply cooling, the leaves are going all Bob Ross, pumpkins are being carved, pumpkin pie is being served, and everything else is pumpkin spiced. Most importantly, the struggle through baseball, golf and televised darts felt by NBA fans is on its last whimper.

After a historic offseason, we've been left with what seems like a foregone conclusion: the Warriors and Cavaliers will meet again in the Finals, with the Dubs looking unbeatable if healthy.

But between now and an inevitable ending, a very dynamic and delicate power struggle will play out among the NBA's middle tier. Venture far out of either conference's top-3 and the pecking order is very unclear. With so much player movement this summer, not only are some variables unknown, but the resulting margins slim - playoff spots should be a dogfight in both conferences.

Speaking of conferences, let's jump into a breakdown of each in Part 1 of Banter's 100% Guaranteed, Flawlessly Hypothesized NBA Preview; starting with the East:

LOTTERY LOCKS: 


15. Brooklyn Nets

As laughable as this roster is, it's still similarly talented on paper to a Simmons-less Sixers, and certainly more experienced. That said, they have far less upside and no means whatsoever to better themselves mid-season.

It's going to be a close race for the bottom between the two. If only Brooklyn had any incentive to be bad; forking over their next two first-round picks, both sure bets for the Top-5.

14. Philadelphia 76ers

The Ben Simmons injury hurts a lot. He was a Sixers rookie, so odds are it was happening, but it's a swift kick in the head to Philly's momentum. It also doesn't bode well for #TheProcess that their likely three best players are all centers.

Philly will now have to scrap either way to escape their token role as the NBA's Worst, but a seemingly inevitable trade of either Noel or Jahlil Okafor could put Philly in a better position to weather Simmons' loss and actually make sense as a basketball team.

13. Miami Heat
xThe bigger they come the harder they fall. By LeBron's count, Miami should still be defending an NBA championship; instead they find themselves unexpectedly thrust into a rebuild.

Losing both Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh signals a new era for the Heat, and knocks them down to the East basement where tanking is a very real possibility. They lack consistent scoring outside of Goran Dragic; relying on increased roles from a Josh Richardson/Hassan Whiteside/Dion Waiters/Derrick Williams quartet that cumulatively went for a whopping 35 ppg last year.

Even if Tyler Johnson lives up to his comical new contract, it's hard to see them winning any more than 30 games. Miami might be better off punting with their sights on 2017's plentiful Draft Class.

PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:

12. Charlotte Hornets

Last season the Hornets re-discovered themselves, playing at a top-10 pace with a balanced and varied scoring attack. After losing three key cogs, Charlotte will have to lean much more heavily on Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum to put the ball in the basket.

While the defensive versatility of the Batum/Marvin Williams/Michael Kidd-Gilchrist trifecta gives the Hornets lots of options and a long presence on the perimeter, MKG's sub-par shooting will only further serve to constrict the offense, and subsidize double-teams of Walker drives.

Charlotte could potentially create headaches on D for certain small-ball lineups, but overall have lost enough scoring punch to suggest a regression back to the lottery.

11. Orlando Magic

So much nonsense going on here. Deal-happy Magic GM Rob Hennigan might be executing a thinly-veiled asset horde, but their awkward glut of big men serves to stymie both trade value and their progress as a basketball team.

So much of this bizarre experiment hinges on Aaron Gordon's transition to "small forward" (if positions still exist). While Gordon gives them a wide athletic framework within which to work, it's nearly impossible to see all of Orlando's bigs fitting into the rotation without marginalizing each other to some extent.

Rumors abound suggest that Nikola Vucevic may be on the trading block, but the market for a center who offers no rim protection and can't quite hit 3s might be dry. A forthcoming deal may help this team find an identity; as of right now it's nebulous at best.

10. Milwaukee Bucks 


Losing Khris Middleton for possibly the entire year hits the Bucks like a Ford Expedition, especially in terms of their spacing-challenged offense. Relics Jason Terry and Steve Novak might be forced into bigger roles out of pure necessity.

Milwaukee seems bent on replicating the Thunder's recently-dismantled Long Ball blueprint, and while all their limbs project as a strong defensive unit, they really couldn't afford to lose their best shooter.

The Bucks' best hopes of salvaging this season come in trading Greg Monroe, who's on a great deal and would fit better on just about any other team. They could fetch a badly-needed perimeter threat and open up the starting center spot for John Henson, one of the NBA's most comically-underused players.

9. Washington Wizards

Maxing out Bradley Beal was a gamble the Wizards had to take after completely fanning on the Kevin Durant Sweepstakes, especially in this summer's apocalyptic Free Agency market. That said, it pins a lot of resources on a player who's missed a quarter of his NBA career so far, while spending another third of it playing through or recovering from injury. At full health, Beal is a borderline All-Star, but our glimpses of it have been fleeting.

John Wall is obviously a franchise building block, but his greatest weakness - his shooting - is only exacerbated without Beal flanking him. In fact most of Washington's roster, like several other lower-rung East teams, seems bereft of en-vogue floor-spacing, unless the petulant Markieff Morris is suddenly becoming an offensive centerpiece.

8. Chicago Bulls 

A peculiar and lateral offseason for "Da Bulls". They traded Derrick Rose, presumably aware that he was ball-stopping Jimmy Butler and clogging their already-shaky spacing with his awful outside shooting.

Now with Robin Lopez as insurance for the imminently-departing Pau Gasol, the Bulls needed to get Butler some help on offense. They thus proceeded to sign not one, but two high-cost players who - maddeningly similar to Rose - will keep the ball out of Butler's hands and do little-to-nothing to space the floor.

It's unclear if this ill-advised hodgepodge of perimeter talent qualifies as a Big 3, but if so the Butler-Wade-Rondo trio is probably the most dysfunctional ever.

PLAYOFF PROBABLES: 


7. New York Knicks

The Knicks made progress this summer. There's no two ways about it; they'll be a better basketball team in 2016-17. But the pidgeon-steps they took towards contention with Melo's window dwindling are far from flattering for Phil Jackson's third offseason. Going almost-all-in on Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah is a serious gamble; the Knicks will be lucky to get a healthy season out of both, never mind their pre-injury selves.

Brandon Jennings will be a welcome addition to their scoring-bound bench, but behind him it's dental floss-thin. Meanwhile Kristaps Porzingis (he of the Latvian rap video) is the team's only significant realizable upside, and his development risks being stymied while Rose and Carmelo Anthony dominate the ball. Their ceiling seems fairly capped even at perfect health - which is far from guaranteed.

6. Atlanta Hawks  

The Hawks aren't in that bad shape for a team that lost two of its three best players over the summer, but maintaining their mid-level playoff spot will depend on several variables:

- that Dennis Schroder will make a leap from stud backup to above-average starter (possible)
- that Kent Bazemore's worth all the money they just gave him (probable)
- and that the Dwight Howard signing won't go up in flames (anyone's guess)

Howard certainly renders Atlanta more combustible than they've been since the Josh Smith era, and poses difficulties for Coach Bud's fluid offense if unwilling to seriously adjust. Paul Millsap is a beast, but there's only so much he can do to keep ATL's system together as the team around him gradually erodes.

5. Detroit Pistons 

Losing Reggie Jackson for the first month-plus of the season blows for a team that many are picking to rise to the top of the East's clusterfucked middle tier. Ish Smith is far from a bad replacement (he'll be great for Andre Drummond on the pick-n-roll), but that stretches an already-thin backcourt bench further.

Their sans-Jackson schedule isn't overly hard, but Tobias Harris is unproven as a primary scorer, and openings for 3's from KCP and Marcus Morris won't be as wide or frequent without Jackson's slashing.

But once Jackson returns, they field a fearsome starting five, well equipped for the space-and-pace offense Stan Van Gundy's so fond of. Not to mention they have Boban.

THE BRIDESMAIDS:

4. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers might've taken a step back defensively with their summer makeover, but the gains on offense - an area which has plagued Indiana for several seasons - are considerable. With a new scoring-friendly coach in the driver's seat, Indiana now has threats from every position to surround Paul George, who seemed like a one-man army at times last year.

Plus it's not like they're suddenly awful on D now. They only have leaks in a couple spots (#MontaEllis), Paul George is still a multi-positional defensive monster, and Myles Turner will become a truly elite rim protector as his IQ and positioning develop.

The net result of the Pacers' shift in philosophy may be a moot point overall. They're much deeper and more talented than last year's iteration, which is why they've returned to the East's upper tier.

3. Toronto Raptors

At first glance it seems like the Raptors had a blah offseason aside from the somewhat-likely Demar DeRozan re-up. Losing breakout Bismack Biyombo while some of their direct competition re-tooled heavily isn't a great start.

But the Jared Sullinger acquisition is large for a rotation that saw Luis Scola log heavy minutes last year. The Raptors now can time-share between two competent, multi-skilled fours without feeding Scola's corpse to opposing athletes.

The Six's summer also saw their All-Star backcourt win Olympic gold medals, an experience whose impact has translated dramatically to the NBA for a number of players. It's not irrational to expect some net positive effect after a summer of playing/training with a handful of the World's truly elite, and - more importantly - getting the best coaching Lowry or DeRozan have ever had. At the absolute least, Toronto's two most important pieces are riding a wave of confidence after inconsistent postseasons.

DeMarre Carroll missed a big chunk of last year and will certainly have a two-way impact, while any development from stashes Bruno Caboclo or Lucas Nogueira would only be icing on the cake. The East's top four will be tougher this year, but the Raps won't be helpless to defend themselves.

2. Boston Celtics

It can't be underscored how huge the Al Horford signing is for a team that hoarded assets in search of a star, then had one dropped in their lap, at their shallowest position no less. Horford would've fit well just about anywhere, but especially so in Boston, who retain their disposable youth and Rolodex of draft picks for the next move.

With lots of available talent, and now two All-Stars to beckon potential trade targets, the odds of Danny Ainge pulling the trigger on a blockbuster aren't bad, raising the Celtics' projected ceiling. But even at present they're probably the East's 2nd-best team, with depth at every position behind a sneaky-good starting lineup.

Losing alpha sixth-man Evan Turner hurts a varied roster like Boston's a lot less, especially given his price tag. Brad Stevens has an absurd knack for maximizing his talent's effectiveness, so he'll find innovative ways to replace Turner's production and continue the Celts' ascent.

HOMECOURT GOES TO:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers This just is happening. Long live JR Smith.




Stay tuned for Part 2: The West, and Part 3: The Hardware, coming soon to a smartphone screen near you...

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Offseason Power Rankings

They came. They saw. They spent.

The 2016 offseason will be remembered for two things:

First, obviously, Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors. Second, and more notably, the floodgates of TV money opening up and unleashing a Biblical wave of contract bloating upon the 2016 free agency class.

Plenty happened this summer, but those dominant themes shook the NBA to its core, rippling far in a summer of transition for an abnormal number of franchises (as you're about to see).

With hundreds of players, teams, moments and metaphysical concepts adrift in the aftermath, there's plenty to sort out. To help keep track of who got the best and worst of things this summer, here are Banter's 2016 Offseason Power Rankings:

Last. Hack-A-Shaq

Second-Last. The BasedGod Curse

Third-Last. North Carolina's All-Star Game Hosting Privileges

704. Brooklyn Nets

When it rains it pours. So soon after they forfeited draft picks for aging veterans, the Nets are awful, unable to rebuild, and attempting to incinerate money in a desperate dash for the Salary Floor. Fully expect them to assume Philly's spot as the NBA's Worst Team.

699. Dion Waiters

685. Vivek Ranadive's Q Rating

662. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Russell Westbrook re-up was significant, and the Ibaka trade was a nice scoop for a player becoming less relevant to the Thunder's success.

But examining OKC's offseason in any other context than "they just lost Kevin Durant for nothing", is kinda missing the forest for the trees.

650. Miami Heat
Gone are Joe Johnson, Luol Deng, and franchise icon Dwyane Wade. In their place are Wayne Ellington, Luke Babbitt and the immortal Dion Waiters. With Chris Bosh's career also in the balance, the Heat are inches away from a total rebuild, while matching one of the summer's most preposterous contract offers.

628. Dave Joerger
Jeorger bolted Memphis after a remarkable performance last year, amid a perhaps-legit beef with upper management. With suitors lined up around the league, he thus promptly committed to the franchise where he's far-and-away most likely to encounter perhaps-legit beef with upper management.

619. Washington Wizards


618. John Wall's Career Arc
As recently as 10 months ago, John Wall was one of the NBA's can't-miss up-and-comers, piloting the East's 'Team to Watch'. The rudderless Wizards have since missed the playoffs, hired Scott Brooks, signed Markieff Morris, and maxed-out one of the most oft-injured players in the league; none of which bode well for Wall returning them to relevancy.

601. Thon Maker 
Got drafted at least 15 spots too high; nobody knows how old he is. Sounds safe.

590. Jeremy Lin 

584. Dwight Howard
After leaving yet another city in a blazing shitstorm of acrimony, Howard lands in his hometown with Al Horford's big shoes to fill and a growing body of evidence suggesting he's fallen off significantly.

With the now-rhetorical questions about his character and desire to win still lingering, the ATL cookin' could be exactly what man-child D12 needs. But if history and circumstance are any indicator, he's just setting himself up for the most painful disappointment yet.

568. My Views on "Make Your Own Dream Team" Memes

541. Milwaukee Bucks
They made a dementia-suggesting draft reach for a guy who may or may not be like 40 years old, and largely whiffed on the shooting their offense badly needs. Unless Mirza Teletovic is somehow the key, this could be another long season in Wisconsin. At least they have Giannis.

526. Atlanta Hawks

499. Chicago Bulls
Mildly unclear what's going on here. Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo are two "name players" that will take the ball out of Jimmy Butler's hands (generally a bad thing) and clog any lineup without a Mirotic/McBuckets forward combo to spread the floor. Sorta defeats the purpose of the Derrick Rose trade.

465. Dallas Mavericks
Whiffed on all their major free agency targets and had to resort to massively overpaying Harrison Barnes. On the bright side, they salvaged Andrew Bogut and faded Dirk's retirement, but still not exactly a win for the Mavs.

443. Charlotte Hornets


411. New Orleans Pelicans

387. Detroit Pistons
BOBAN!! Relevant side-note: The Pistons are currently the second-highest-paid roster in the league at $116 million committed next year.

350. Toronto Raptors
Getting priced out of the Bismack Biyombo sweepstakes was a painful inevitability for the Raptors, one they tried to remedy by drafting a guy who apparently can't dunk in the lottery. Biz was one of the NBA's more underrated players before his postseason explosion, and a big hole to patch in their defense.

The DeRozan re-signing is a strong indicator for the Raps (and Canadian basketball in general). Despite Demar's sickening inconsistency in the playoffs, it keeps them competitive. Coming off a summer with some of the World's best coaches on Team USA certainly doesn't hurt him either.

Jared Sullinger gives Toronto a far more competent option than Luis Scola at the four, but combine the Biyombo loss with direct competition improving markedly, and The North will likely have a tougher run at an East Finals repeat.

322. New York Knicks

The Knicks' offseason has been much-trumpeted in many realms of the Internet, but for me it's mainly a wash. Cast into Win-Now Mode by Melo's ticking clock, they've dumped a whole lot of money and hope into two guys - Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah - who've each been paltry shells of their past selves for at least two years. In Rose, they've inherited the only deal signed in 2012 that could possibly suck under the current cap.

D-Rose and Melo's ball-dominance will be an interesting mesh, and even a fully healthy season from Rose and/or Noah would be a mild surprise. Courtney Lee is a good two-way guard and Brandon Jennings will give life to an offense-dormant 2nd unit, but the Knicks' likely fate is still a bottom-tier playoff team. A total sophomore explosion from the Porzingod might be their best chance at a real leap.

302. San Antonio Spurs
Tim Duncan's absence will be a strange concept to absorb; he was the San Antonio Spurs (at least on-court; #Pop) for damn near two decades. There are far worse replacements than Pau Gasol, but the Spurs' bid for West supremacy got dealt a pretty severe blow by a certain free agent. Leading us to...

270. Kevin Durant's Legacy

So as you may or may not have heard, Kevin Durant joined the Golden State Warriors this summer in a decision that loomed above the NBA for months and still shocked everyone out of sheer magnitude. It also created a vicious dichotomy for KD in the Court of Public Opinion; dividing those who harp he took the easy way out, and those who insist he made the best choice for his "legacy".

The reality to a large degree is that Durant did both.

He's put himself in remarkably good position to win multiple titles, and though he's unlikely to snag another MVP, he's right to act in the interest of rings if he wants to be remembered among the all-time greats. And he absolutely does.

Durant saw first hand just how difficult winning a title in a small market is. OKC struck a series of jackpot draft picks unlike any team in recent memory, and still, year after year, ran into either an untimely injury or a historic team. He's hedged his bets accordingly.

But in the process he's set professional basketball in Oklahoma City back a good decade. He's not only leaving a proud franchise he basically birthed from an ugly Seattle exit, but doing so after they came within God inheriting Klay Thompson's body of making the Finals. For the team that beat them.

He's sealed his Thunder's fate among the NBA's all-time 'What If' teams, and probably created a greater philosophical inquiry of his (likely) rings than anyone before him.

245. Phoenix Suns

230. Portland Trailblazers

209. Houston Rockets 

Dwight Howard's departure has to be seen as a net plus. Many metrics pointed to the Rockets being better without him last year, and his pseudo-jovial petulance is a detriment to any team's chemistry.

Meanwhile, they picked up a couple former Pelicans who (when healthy) provide great spacing for James Harden's free-throw forays to the paint. Moreyball may have overpaid for Ryan Anderson, but got reasonable value on Eric Gordon, two guys who fit his system well.

184. Draymond Green's Snapchat Account
Became a powerful source of memes, great parodies and Team USA bonding this summer, if only through unwittingly showing his penis to millions of people.

168. Austin Rivers' Contract
While he continues to be given a healthy leash by having dad as both coach and GM, it says a lot about the state of the NBA offseason that Rivers' 3-year/$35 million deal doesn't seem that ridiculous.

145. Los Angeles Lakers 
As the Lakers' heavy rebuild hits Defcon 2 with the clock whittling away on Jimmy Buss, they've overall had a strong few months. LA's Other Team signed good deals (Luol Deng, Jordan Clarkson) and bad ones (Timofey Mozgov, Yi Jianlian for some reason), but overall take a win on the offseason.

Buss is still a dog to hit his lofty deadline, but the Lakers are now freed from Kobe's oppressive contract, and have a player they can possibly build around in Brandon Ingram. They'll have a decent outlook once someone smarter than Jimmy is spending the money.

115. Memphis Grizzlies

Keeping Mike Conley is massive, and speaks to the loyalty bred from the Grizzlies' culture. And also perhaps that Conley's max under the new cap made him (before LeBron's new deal) the highest-paid player ever.

Gasp-worthy as that may be, it was a victory for the Grizzlies (and small-market franchises) that saved them from a total rebuild in Marc Gasol's prime. It also came as a morality boost after a season in which legions of injuries, and concerns about Robert Pera's ownership style haunted #GNG.

But Memphis also doubled-down and maxed-out Chandler Parsons. While the debate about that expenditure's legitimacy is itself legitimate, Memphis is defiantly refusing to quit. Sure they have virtually no chance of winning a title and will max-out as a 3/4-seed, but they're playing it to the bone. They're the anti-tankers; a refreshing sight in today's NBA.

89. Orlando Magic
So their frontcourt's a little crowded. Adding Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo (more on him in a moment) to the Vucevic/Gordon combo gives Orlando considerable size, depth and the rim protection they've sorely lacked the past few seasons.

The question thus becomes whether the trigger-happy Rob Hennigan is just stockpiling assets for another deal, or actually plans on making this seemingly over-sized rotation work.

71. Philadelphia 76ers
Things are finally, kind of, coming to together for #TheProcess - if only Sam Hinkie were still around to see it:

Philly netted the #1 pick, managed to draft a guy who isn't a center, have an apparently-healthy Joel Embiid, and maintained their mountains of cap room. In fact, the Sixers' biggest concern at this point will be hitting the league's $84 million salary floor next year.

Better yet, with the Nets in utter disarray and no means to better themselves, the Sixers can finally be freed of stigmatization as the NBA's resident eyesore.


63. Joel Embiid

Continues to kill social media, and actually appeared on film playing basketball for the first time in several years.

49. Kent Bazemore
Couldn't have found himself in a better spot, hosting his coming out party over the biggest Contract Year in history, at a time when 3-and-D swingmen are a prime asset in a wing-deprived market.

Bazemore made off huge this summer for a guy who enthusiastically warmed the Warriors' bench 20 months ago, no two ways about it. But of the many sketchy contracts free agents were gifted with this summer, his potential to blossom might be the most realistic.

34. John Leuer
I mean sure, what the hell! 4 years, $42 million! Why not!

29. Solomon Hill

26. The Cleveland Cavaliers
They are the champs and everything, but Golden State just made a power move on them unlike any we've ever seen.

25. Pau Gasol

Getting out of Chicago was enough but landing with the Spurs makes Pau a large winner.


24. DeMarcus Cousins' Trade Odds

The writing has to be on the wall here, with Cousins perpetually perturbed, and the Kings acquiring like 50 centers under an owner who can do literally anything.

The issues of Cousins' petulant demeanor are well-chronicled, but the Nuggets should just ante up, re-unite DMC with Mike Malone, and reap the ensuing benefits.

23. Rasheed Wallace
Everyone knew Dame Lillard would spit nice, but the gully bars that Sheed laid down on the #SoFarGoneChallenge (while driving no less) were one of the summer's best videos.

22. Tristan Thompson
For doing maybe the most Canadian thing ever.

21. Carmelo Anthony
While his team's still not competing for that ever-elusive Finals trip, Melo might've on-the-low sealed his Hall of Fame bid this summer as the first man ever to win three Olympic golds in basketball.

20. Joakim Noah
Had the last two years of his career conveniently ignored by the Knicks during contract offers.

19. Ryan Anderson
He'll fit well in Houston, and 4 yrs/$80 million is very generous for a less-than-healthy one-way gunner whose best years are perhaps behind him.

18. Frank Vogel

17. Kris Dunn


16. Indiana Pacers


Lots of people hated the Vogel departure, despite his inconclusive results with Indiana. He presided
over Pacers teams that both massively over and underachieved, with a clear hallmark of stout defense and offensive deficiency. A Larry Bird team could only suck at scoring for so long.

Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson and Thad Young are all offensive upgrades over their predecessors, and Nate McMillian was likely a good fit as a Vogel replacement. Unless the Pacers' defense completely crumbles without George and Solomon Hill, they'll climb the East standings.

15. Chandler Parsons

14. Utah Jazz
One of the offseason's multi-way winners. They finally found a starting point guard in George Hill; one who won't command the ball too much or be Trey Burke. This still-young squad also benefits from a year of experience, continuity, and one can hope better health.

Count circumstance among the Jazz's fortunes too. With the West in heavy flux below the top-3, Utah could make serious strides up the playoff bracket. Quin Snyder for Coach of the Year; you heard it here first.

13. Ian Mahinmi

12. Pre-Existing Kevin Durant Championship Bets

11. 
The Summer of JR



10. Bismack Biyombo

Five months ago, Bismack Biyombo was a defensive specialist and capable backup, but a limited offensive game had kept him from seeing heavy minutes. He made $3 million last year.

His impact on the Raptors' shaky second-unit defense was one of their brightest spots this season; one that culminated in the most important playoff run they'd ever embarked on. It was there that Jonas Valanciunas was sidelined, and Biyombo vaulted from on-the-low-bench stud to maybe the breakout player of the 2016 Playoffs. His sublime glass-waxing, elite rim protection and impact energy plays were one of the Raptors' few consistent sparks.

While Biz might've already been in line for a slight raise, his value thus skyrocketed - to 4 yrs/$70 million - due to a very timely injury. Biyombo may have just financially benefited more from a teammate's sidelining than any player in history. Hope he's buying Jonas a car or something.

9. Russell Westbrook

While acting in self-interest and getting the most money, Westbrook is now an Oklahoma folk hero for re-upping after Durant bolted. He also has the team to himself now. While his title odds took a massive hit, he can make perhaps the closest run at Oscar Robertson's triple-double-season mark we've seen yet.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sometimes everything just falls into place for a franchise. Take Minnesota, where the often-frail Wolves have landed back-to-back #1 picks, one of whom is a star in the making, the other is already perhaps the single most valuable long-term asset in the NBA.

With the last two Rookies of the Year in tow, the Wolves now have a serious shot at a third with Kris Dunn, making former PG prodigy Ricky Rubio - their highest-paid player - expendable. Minnesota can now potentially clear even more cap space for the future by dealing Pretty Ricky.

Then of course there's the bench upgrade from Sam Mitchell to Tom Thibodeau, which is like replacing a Hungry Man Salisbury Steak with wagyu ribeye. For a team with such young talent, Thibs will be a great source of knowledge, discipline, experience, and most notably - work ethic.

Already League Pass heavyweights, the Wolves only built upon perhaps the league's brightest future.

7. Timofey Mozgov, Allen Crabbe & Tyler Johnson


There will a be an ESPN 30-for-30 made someday about this year's NBA Offseason. About the oceans of money that were set ablaze in a perfect storm of salary influx and a shallow free agency class. Among the deals of particular note that will be highlighted:

Timofey Mozgov, the once-sought low-post brute who regressed all season, eventually falling completely out of the Cavs' rotation. He now makes $16 million/year, or more than any player in the NHL.

Allen Crabbe, the potential breakout 3-and-D wing whom the Nets inked to a restricted 4-year $74 millon script. Portland swallowed the pill and matched. The Blazers now cutting $18.5 million to a backup wing with career averages of 7/2/1 has helped balloon their payroll to a league-high $119 million.

And Tyler Johnson; inconsistent bench guard, also inked by the Nets to a literally vomit-inducing 4-years, $50 million. Unshaken by the Nets' manic spending spree, Pat Riley opened the coffers and matched the back-loaded deal, which gives Johnson a combined $38.5 million over its final two seasons.

Though the potential to redeem these whale contracts exists, these guys are already being paid beyond the apex of their realistic projections. Huge offseason winners.

6. Mike Conley
Much love as I have for Iron Mike, the fact that a 0-time All-Star spent a brief moment as the highest-paid player in NBA history is simply incredible.

5. Boston Celtics
Landing Al Horford was a significant coup for this precocious bunch of scrappers, consolidating their talent and solving their longtime search for a starting center. More significantly, they managed to do it without going over the cap or giving up any of their asset horde, leaving Danny Ainge plenty of ammo to make another blockbuster move. The Celtics are probably already favorites to nab the East's #2 seed.

4. Hassan Whiteside
Was playing in Lebanon two years ago. Just signed a $98 million contract, and could be a franchise cornerstone with the Wade Era now over.


3. LeBron James

LeBron not only got to revel in the spotlight of the greatest Finals performance ever, but gave himself a record contract. The Warriors have dealt a major blow to his Cavs' repeat odds, but this summer was LeBron's Moment in a career littered with so many LeBron Moments.

His career path - "legacy" if you will - isn't hurt that much by the Durant signing either way. If the Warriors beat him in the Finals rubber-match only injury can derail, they had to assemble arguably the greatest team ever to do so. If LeBron somehow emerges from this with another ring though, that's serious G.O.A.T material.

2. Harrison Barnes

I thought the notion of giving Barnes a max deal was incredulous before he came out and projectile vomited all over the Warriors' failed title defense; the kind of gaffe that normally costs a player millions in a contract year.

Mark Cuban knows things about investments that I don't, but the metrics suggest Barnes is overrated as is without the added expectation amid much worse surroundings. Even in an offseason of financial anarchy, how Barnes made off with this much money is unsustainable and sickening.

1. Golden State Warriors
It's still kind of hard to fathom. A team winning 73 games one year, then acquiring likely the 3rd-best player in the NBA for fifteen cents on the dollar.

The Warriors are going to be a terrifying offensive machine that will rack up the easiest buckets we've ever seen against any non-elite defense. It's going to be insulting how routine they'll make it look.


The Death Lineup just became exponentially scarier, with Durant's lethal scoring replacing Barnes' inconsistent shooting, and his length enabling him to cover even more space and bigger bodies on D. Getting Zaza Pachulia on the cheap was great Bogut insurance; with veterans riding them in every-trendy ring hunts (David West really making Ray Allen eat his words) they can fill out a bench to complement the best 7-man rotation ever.

Dub Nation is now very short on rim protection, but that seems trivial in the scope of what's just happened. This team is going to be fucking impossible to defend. It's supremely unlikely they go for a new wins record after last year's playoff semi-burnout, but we're about to witness devastation on a mass level.